← ADXTrend_MM

ADXTrend_MM — metrics

Unguarded: PASSGuarded: WARN · 1 warnMM-DCAgunbot-quant

BTCUSDT · 2026-08-13 01:50 → 2026-09-12 01:50 UTC (30 days) · 0.03% fee + 2 bps slippage · 122 quote, one figure for every cell

The same document for both runs of the same measurement — first as the strategy ships, then with the break-even guard. Everything else about the two runs is identical.

As it ships PASS

Exits: the strategy's own exits, stops included

The metric set the portfolio dashboard reports, computed per cell so a backtested configuration and a running one read on the same axes. Portfolio-level measures (concentration, pairwise correlation, beta against a benchmark) are omitted: one strategy on one pair has no cross-sectional structure to measure, and printing a null would imply the number exists.

1m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return -80.95% -45.24% -30.95% -42.10% -48.40%
CAGR -100.00% -99.93% -98.90% -99.87% -99.97%
Buy and hold 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88%
Edge vs B&H -102.83% -67.13% -52.83% -63.98% -70.28%
Volatility (ann.) 10.01% 9.10% 12.91% 17.85% 22.41%
Sharpe -201.39 -80.48 -34.84 -37.15 -35.80
Sortino -163.76 -73.39 -33.05 -35.11 -34.24
Calmar -1.24 -2.21 -3.19 -2.37 -2.06
Omega 0.15 0.49 0.73 0.73 0.75
Max drawdown 80.95% 45.24% 30.99% 42.15% 48.47%
Ulcer index 0.4739 0.2605 0.1773 0.2385 0.2891
Drawdown episodes 1 1 7 7 7
Longest underwater (days) 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.9 29.9
Recovery factor -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00
VaR 95% -9.245% -2.912% -2.133% -2.942% -3.655%
VaR 99% -13.928% -3.149% -2.198% -2.970% -3.671%
CVaR 95% -11.587% -3.030% -2.165% -2.956% -3.663%
Skew -1.20 -0.13 0.40 0.46 1.06
Excess kurtosis 1.25 -1.03 -0.04 -0.34 2.48
Best day -2.45% -1.11% -0.09% -0.18% 1.06%
Worst day -13.93% -3.15% -2.20% -2.97% -3.67%
Positive days 0 0 0 0 1
Negative days 30 30 30 30 29
Round trips 4,032 1,624 814 769 741
Winning / losing trades 192 / 3,840 160 / 1,464 163 / 651 142 / 627 127 / 614
Trades per day 134.40 54.13 27.13 25.63 24.70
Win rate 4.76% 9.85% 20.02% 18.47% 17.14%
Profit factor 0.05 0.18 0.36 0.35 0.37
Payoff ratio 1.09 1.63 1.44 1.55 1.77
Expectancy -0.0245 -0.0340 -0.0464 -0.0668 -0.0797
Average win 0.0297 0.0745 0.1302 0.1948 0.2694
Average loss 0.0272 0.0459 0.0906 0.1260 0.1519
Average trade -0.0245 -0.0340 -0.0464 -0.0668 -0.0797
Max win streak 9 7 6 5 4
Max loss streak 233 79 41 40 40
Time in market 15.92% 21.82% 26.80% 27.77% 27.90%
Turnover 0.90 0.65 0.66 0.87 1.04
Realised P&L -98.76 -55.20 -37.76 -51.36 -59.05
Unrealised P&L -0.00 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00
Fees paid 60.62 34.52 25.09 33.14 39.44
Fee drag 49.69% 28.30% 20.57% 27.16% 32.32%
Final equity 23.24 66.80 84.24 70.64 62.95

3m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return -25.79% -16.52% -10.84% -13.50% -16.34%
CAGR -97.35% -88.89% -75.23% -82.88% -88.60%
Buy and hold 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86%
Edge vs B&H -47.65% -38.38% -32.70% -35.36% -38.20%
Volatility (ann.) 4.85% 7.00% 11.14% 14.57% 18.64%
Sharpe -74.86 -31.37 -12.47 -12.04 -11.55
Sortino -70.92 -30.92 -12.79 -12.16 -11.79
Calmar -3.77 -5.36 -6.86 -5.67 -4.60
Omega 0.30 0.61 0.82 0.84 0.85
Max drawdown 25.79% 16.58% 10.96% 14.62% 19.25%
Ulcer index 0.1469 0.0860 0.0525 0.0701 0.0923
Drawdown episodes 1 5 4 8 16
Longest underwater (days) 29.9 29.8 29.9 21.7 21.7
Recovery factor -1.00 -1.00 -0.99 -0.92 -0.85
VaR 95% -1.769% -1.142% -0.821% -1.287% -1.711%
VaR 99% -1.907% -1.183% -0.944% -1.311% -1.886%
CVaR 95% -1.838% -1.162% -0.883% -1.299% -1.799%
Skew -0.34 0.73 1.54 1.46 1.54
Excess kurtosis -0.05 0.32 1.52 1.28 1.57
Best day -0.31% 0.49% 1.10% 1.75% 2.95%
Worst day -1.91% -1.18% -0.94% -1.31% -1.89%
Positive days 0 2 4 5 6
Negative days 29 27 25 24 23
Round trips 1,288 603 316 298 274
Winning / losing trades 155 / 1,133 113 / 490 108 / 208 96 / 202 76 / 198
Trades per day 42.94 20.10 10.53 9.93 9.13
Win rate 12.03% 18.74% 34.18% 32.21% 27.74%
Profit factor 0.16 0.33 0.59 0.63 0.63
Payoff ratio 1.16 1.45 1.14 1.32 1.65
Expectancy -0.0244 -0.0334 -0.0418 -0.0553 -0.0728
Average win 0.0383 0.0893 0.1779 0.2874 0.4541
Average loss 0.0330 0.0617 0.1559 0.2181 0.2750
Average trade -0.0244 -0.0334 -0.0418 -0.0553 -0.0728
Max win streak 13 11 11 9 8
Max loss streak 110 50 21 21 21
Time in market 14.10% 19.14% 24.35% 25.40% 25.69%
Turnover 0.36 0.33 0.42 0.59 0.73
Realised P&L -31.47 -20.16 -13.22 -16.47 -19.94
Unrealised P&L -0.00 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00
Fees paid 19.53 13.12 10.39 13.50 16.44
Fee drag 16.01% 10.75% 8.51% 11.06% 13.48%
Final equity 90.53 101.84 108.78 105.53 102.06

5m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return -14.09% -8.64% -4.74% -4.46% -6.63%
CAGR -84.23% -66.69% -44.64% -42.62% -56.62%
Buy and hold 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83%
Edge vs B&H -35.92% -30.47% -26.57% -26.29% -28.46%
Volatility (ann.) 4.49% 7.26% 11.53% 15.83% 18.03%
Sharpe -41.07 -15.10 -5.07 -3.43 -4.54
Sortino -43.76 -16.50 -5.40 -3.69 -4.72
Calmar -5.98 -7.67 -6.96 -5.67 -5.24
Omega 0.43 0.73 0.90 0.94 0.92
Max drawdown 14.09% 8.70% 6.41% 7.52% 10.81%
Ulcer index 0.0827 0.0472 0.0280 0.0296 0.0427
Drawdown episodes 1 2 13 17 18
Longest underwater (days) 29.9 29.9 21.6 21.6 21.6
Recovery factor -1.00 -0.99 -0.74 -0.59 -0.61
VaR 95% -0.953% -0.790% -0.830% -1.064% -1.496%
VaR 99% -1.126% -0.921% -0.924% -1.242% -1.583%
CVaR 95% -1.039% -0.855% -0.877% -1.153% -1.540%
Skew -0.04 0.39 1.14 1.24 1.44
Excess kurtosis -0.56 -0.56 0.66 0.78 1.42
Best day 0.07% 0.45% 1.36% 2.20% 2.71%
Worst day -1.13% -0.92% -0.92% -1.24% -1.58%
Positive days 1 5 7 7 7
Negative days 29 25 23 23 23
Round trips 791 382 206 193 177
Winning / losing trades 151 / 640 102 / 280 88 / 118 78 / 115 63 / 114
Trades per day 26.37 12.73 6.87 6.43 5.90
Win rate 19.09% 26.70% 42.72% 40.41% 35.59%
Profit factor 0.28 0.50 0.75 0.83 0.79
Payoff ratio 1.17 1.37 1.01 1.22 1.43
Expectancy -0.0217 -0.0276 -0.0281 -0.0282 -0.0457
Average win 0.0436 0.1027 0.1968 0.3379 0.4772
Average loss 0.0371 0.0751 0.1958 0.2765 0.3347
Average trade -0.0217 -0.0276 -0.0281 -0.0282 -0.0457
Max win streak 7 11 14 12 9
Max loss streak 107 31 12 14 14
Time in market 14.19% 19.13% 24.22% 25.15% 25.46%
Turnover 0.25 0.26 0.33 0.48 0.56
Realised P&L -17.18 -10.54 -5.79 -5.44 -8.09
Unrealised P&L -0.00 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00
Fees paid 12.07 8.56 7.09 9.28 10.62
Fee drag 9.89% 7.01% 5.81% 7.61% 8.71%
Final equity 104.82 111.46 116.21 116.56 113.91

Every number on this page is read from the run record that produced it — the audit pipeline writes the page and the record together, so the two cannot drift apart.

With the break-even guard WARN · 1 warn

Exits: no exit below average entry plus fees, stops included

The metric set the portfolio dashboard reports, computed per cell so a backtested configuration and a running one read on the same axes. Portfolio-level measures (concentration, pairwise correlation, beta against a benchmark) are omitted: one strategy on one pair has no cross-sectional structure to measure, and printing a null would imply the number exists.

1m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 1.76% 2.45% 5.79% 7.28% 10.09%
CAGR 23.69% 34.25% 98.42% 135.22% 222.23%
Buy and hold 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88%
Edge vs B&H -20.12% -19.43% -16.09% -14.60% -11.79%
Volatility (ann.) 11.09% 16.95% 29.18% 33.67% 28.38%
Sharpe 1.97 1.82 2.49 2.71 4.26
Sortino 1.90 1.75 2.41 2.62 4.16
Calmar 11.53 10.70 20.38 22.35 45.15
Omega 1.01 1.01 1.01 1.01 1.02
Max drawdown 2.05% 3.20% 4.83% 6.05% 4.92%
Ulcer index 0.0084 0.0140 0.0215 0.0254 0.0226
Drawdown episodes 141 133 164 146 117
Longest underwater (days) 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2 9.7
Recovery factor 0.86 0.77 1.20 1.20 2.05
VaR 95% -0.739% -1.016% -1.870% -1.962% -1.541%
VaR 99% -1.265% -1.734% -2.960% -2.945% -2.612%
CVaR 95% -1.002% -1.375% -2.415% -2.453% -2.076%
Skew 0.47 0.50 0.61 0.79 1.14
Excess kurtosis 0.91 0.18 0.37 0.50 1.20
Best day 1.53% 1.88% 3.69% 4.54% 4.64%
Worst day -1.27% -1.73% -2.96% -2.95% -2.61%
Positive days 14 15 14 15 16
Negative days 16 15 16 15 14
Round trips 103 86 80 63 52
Winning / losing trades 103 / 0 86 / 0 80 / 0 63 / 0 52 / 0
Trades per day 3.43 2.87 2.67 2.10 1.73
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 0.0346 0.0746 0.1489 0.2508 0.3465
Average win 0.0346 0.0746 0.1489 0.2508 0.3465
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 0.0346 0.0746 0.1489 0.2508 0.3465
Max win streak 103 86 80 63 52
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 99.00% 98.97% 98.84% 99.31% 99.12%
Turnover 0.03 0.05 0.10 0.13 0.15
Realised P&L 3.57 6.42 11.91 15.80 18.02
Unrealised P&L -1.42 -3.43 -4.85 -6.92 -5.70
Fees paid 1.69 2.06 3.08 3.39 3.16
Fee drag 1.38% 1.69% 2.52% 2.78% 2.59%
Final equity 124.15 124.99 129.07 130.89 134.32

3m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 2.60% 3.96% 8.98% 9.90% 11.42%
CAGR 36.73% 60.46% 184.75% 215.40% 272.91%
Buy and hold 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86%
Edge vs B&H -19.26% -17.90% -12.88% -11.96% -10.44%
Volatility (ann.) 8.96% 13.95% 24.64% 31.94% 27.48%
Sharpe 3.54 3.46 4.37 3.76 4.93
Sortino 3.58 3.50 4.43 3.74 4.93
Calmar 18.26 21.98 40.20 40.91 57.98
Omega 1.03 1.03 1.04 1.03 1.04
Max drawdown 2.01% 2.75% 4.60% 5.26% 4.71%
Ulcer index 0.0073 0.0110 0.0175 0.0232 0.0214
Drawdown episodes 114 118 145 132 85
Longest underwater (days) 7.6 8.2 7.6 7.6 8.2
Recovery factor 1.30 1.44 1.95 1.88 2.43
VaR 95% -0.722% -0.992% -1.796% -1.895% -1.498%
VaR 99% -1.176% -1.610% -2.706% -3.040% -2.416%
CVaR 95% -0.949% -1.301% -2.251% -2.467% -1.957%
Skew 0.85 0.90 0.69 0.74 1.13
Excess kurtosis 1.76 1.33 1.05 0.42 0.91
Best day 1.73% 2.35% 4.02% 4.67% 4.95%
Worst day -1.18% -1.61% -2.71% -3.04% -2.42%
Positive days 16 15 16 15 15
Negative days 13 14 13 14 14
Round trips 90 81 82 56 42
Winning / losing trades 90 / 0 81 / 0 82 / 0 56 / 0 42 / 0
Trades per day 3.00 2.70 2.73 1.87 1.40
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 0.0489 0.0915 0.1846 0.3218 0.4621
Average win 0.0489 0.0915 0.1846 0.3218 0.4621
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 0.0489 0.0915 0.1846 0.3218 0.4621
Max win streak 90 81 82 56 42
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 95.42% 95.00% 93.04% 96.32% 98.33%
Turnover 0.04 0.06 0.12 0.15 0.16
Realised P&L 4.40 7.41 15.14 18.02 19.41
Unrealised P&L -1.23 -2.57 -4.18 -5.94 -5.47
Fees paid 1.52 2.05 3.37 3.03 2.56
Fee drag 1.24% 1.68% 2.76% 2.49% 2.10%
Final equity 125.18 126.83 132.96 134.08 135.94

5m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 2.07% 3.50% 9.22% 10.64% 10.41%
CAGR 28.34% 51.99% 192.55% 242.27% 233.81%
Buy and hold 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83%
Edge vs B&H -19.76% -18.33% -12.61% -11.19% -11.41%
Volatility (ann.) 9.96% 15.70% 23.84% 31.43% 27.61%
Sharpe 2.56 2.75 4.62 4.07 4.50
Sortino 2.65 2.79 4.81 4.18 4.64
Calmar 14.25 16.55 42.91 44.64 51.24
Omega 1.03 1.03 1.05 1.04 1.04
Max drawdown 1.99% 3.14% 4.49% 5.43% 4.56%
Ulcer index 0.0080 0.0131 0.0177 0.0236 0.0204
Drawdown episodes 86 116 132 98 77
Longest underwater (days) 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2 9.6
Recovery factor 1.04 1.11 2.06 1.96 2.28
VaR 95% -0.707% -0.967% -1.746% -1.838% -1.478%
VaR 99% -1.205% -1.645% -2.759% -3.090% -2.496%
CVaR 95% -0.956% -1.306% -2.253% -2.464% -1.987%
Skew 0.46 0.33 0.59 0.91 0.89
Excess kurtosis 1.20 0.41 1.10 0.62 0.53
Best day 1.52% 1.96% 4.00% 4.84% 4.05%
Worst day -1.21% -1.64% -2.76% -3.09% -2.50%
Positive days 15 17 18 15 17
Negative days 15 13 12 15 13
Round trips 65 77 73 48 39
Winning / losing trades 65 / 0 77 / 0 73 / 0 48 / 0 39 / 0
Trades per day 2.17 2.57 2.43 1.60 1.30
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 0.0616 0.1007 0.2166 0.4054 0.4646
Average win 0.0616 0.1007 0.2166 0.4054 0.4646
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 0.0616 0.1007 0.2166 0.4054 0.4646
Max win streak 65 77 73 48 39
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 98.06% 91.52% 88.66% 98.19% 97.56%
Turnover 0.03 0.06 0.13 0.16 0.15
Realised P&L 4.00 7.76 15.81 19.46 18.12
Unrealised P&L -1.47 -3.48 -4.56 -6.48 -5.41
Fees paid 1.14 2.00 3.00 2.72 2.38
Fee drag 0.94% 1.64% 2.46% 2.23% 1.95%
Final equity 124.53 126.27 133.25 134.98 134.71

Every number on this page is read from the run record that produced it — the audit pipeline writes the page and the record together, so the two cannot drift apart.

What the guard is, and what a better number under it means. The break-even guard refuses any exit below average entry plus fees. It cannot improve a strategy's judgement — it can only stop it selling at a loss, which means holding the position instead. Across the pack that turns a strategy that churned into one that buys and waits: trade counts collapse and time in market rises towards 100%. In a window where the asset itself rose, that reads as a much better return while being strictly less of a strategy.

So read the return next to round trips, time in market and edge vs buy and hold. The last of those is the one that matters: not one strategy in this matrix beat simply holding the asset, in either run.

Ignore the win rate and the profit factor under the guard. Both count closed trades only, and the guard closes nothing at a loss — in all 101 guarded runs the number of losing closed trades is exactly zero. So the win rate goes to 100% and the profit factor becomes undefined for arithmetic reasons, while the losses sit in the position that is still open. The unrealised row is where they went.