← ADX_DI_Cross

ADX_DI_Cross — metrics

Unguarded: PASSGuarded: FAIL · 2 failDirectionalgunbot-quant

BTCUSDT · 2026-08-13 01:50 → 2026-09-12 01:50 UTC (30 days) · 0.03% fee + 2 bps slippage · 1,000 quote, one figure for every cell

The same document for both runs of the same measurement — first as the strategy ships, then with the break-even guard. Everything else about the two runs is identical.

As it ships PASS

Exits: the strategy's own exits, stops included

The metric set the portfolio dashboard reports, computed per cell so a backtested configuration and a running one read on the same axes. Portfolio-level measures (concentration, pairwise correlation, beta against a benchmark) are omitted: one strategy on one pair has no cross-sectional structure to measure, and printing a null would imply the number exists.

1m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return -0.27% -2.86% -15.27% -29.24% -25.74%
CAGR -3.21% -29.75% -86.69% -98.51% -97.32%
Buy and hold 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88%
Edge vs B&H -22.15% -24.74% -37.16% -51.12% -47.62%
Volatility (ann.) 0.30% 1.07% 5.30% 13.48% 12.97%
Sharpe -10.90 -32.99 -37.99 -31.15 -27.86
Sortino -6.33 -14.69 -20.02 -22.67 -25.61
Calmar -11.99 -10.29 -5.65 -3.30 -3.72
Omega 0.47 0.37 0.51 0.77 0.83
Max drawdown 0.27% 2.89% 15.35% 29.86% 26.16%
Ulcer index 0.0020 0.0182 0.0920 0.1716 0.1418
Drawdown episodes 1 2 3 12 11
Longest underwater (days) 29.6 29.8 29.8 29.9 29.9
Recovery factor -1.00 -0.99 -1.00 -0.98 -0.98
VaR 95% -0.027% -0.252% -0.838% -2.047% -1.850%
VaR 99% -0.079% -0.257% -0.852% -2.082% -2.464%
CVaR 95% -0.053% -0.255% -0.845% -2.065% -2.157%
Skew -2.90 -1.10 -0.48 0.56 1.33
Excess kurtosis 9.98 1.38 -0.64 -0.56 1.41
Best day 0.00% 0.00% -0.28% 0.12% 1.71%
Worst day -0.08% -0.26% -0.85% -2.08% -2.46%
Positive days 5 0 0 3 3
Negative days 17 29 30 27 27
Round trips 24 136 395 716 869
Winning / losing trades 1 / 23 2 / 134 13 / 382 52 / 664 90 / 779
Trades per day 0.80 4.53 13.17 23.87 28.97
Win rate 4.17% 1.47% 3.29% 7.26% 10.36%
Profit factor 0.02 0.01 0.05 0.29 0.40
Payoff ratio 0.43 0.79 1.40 3.70 3.47
Expectancy -0.1117 -0.2103 -0.3867 -0.4082 -0.2961
Average win 0.0511 0.1707 0.5881 2.2952 1.9161
Average loss 0.1188 0.2160 0.4199 0.6199 0.5516
Average trade -0.1117 -0.2103 -0.3867 -0.4082 -0.2961
Max win streak 1 1 2 2 2
Max loss streak 13 104 83 57 43
Time in market 0.51% 2.07% 6.62% 28.40% 46.70%
Turnover 0.00 0.03 0.17 0.53 0.60
Realised P&L -2.68 -28.60 -152.75 -292.29 -257.27
Unrealised P&L -0.00 0.00 -0.00 -0.12 -0.08
Fees paid 1.60 15.62 89.34 201.15 195.40
Fee drag 0.16% 1.56% 8.93% 20.11% 19.54%
Final equity 997.32 971.40 847.25 707.59 742.64

3m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return -0.03% -0.75% -4.95% -5.11% -7.27%
CAGR -0.38% -8.78% -46.11% -47.15% -60.07%
Buy and hold 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86%
Edge vs B&H -21.89% -22.61% -26.81% -26.97% -29.13%
Volatility (ann.) 0.13% 0.88% 5.02% 13.52% 12.34%
Sharpe -2.96 -10.49 -12.30 -4.65 -7.38
Sortino -0.17 -5.58 -6.74 -3.60 -6.96
Calmar -8.02 -10.06 -8.33 -5.40 -4.79
Omega 0.75 0.64 0.65 0.93 0.92
Max drawdown 0.05% 0.87% 5.53% 8.73% 12.54%
Ulcer index 0.0003 0.0050 0.0298 0.0436 0.0696
Drawdown episodes 4 8 3 19 36
Longest underwater (days) 26.0 28.4 28.4 22.6 21.7
Recovery factor -0.66 -0.86 -0.90 -0.58 -0.58
VaR 95% -0.010% -0.061% -0.391% -0.964% -1.039%
VaR 99% -0.016% -0.083% -0.421% -1.191% -1.275%
CVaR 95% -0.013% -0.072% -0.406% -1.078% -1.157%
Skew -2.82 -0.37 0.37 2.91 2.29
Excess kurtosis 7.51 -1.27 0.69 9.25 5.04
Best day 0.00% 0.01% 0.14% 4.78% 3.34%
Worst day -0.02% -0.08% -0.42% -1.19% -1.27%
Positive days 1 5 1 6 7
Negative days 3 19 28 23 22
Round trips 3 36 117 196 275
Winning / losing trades 0 / 3 3 / 33 7 / 110 19 / 177 32 / 243
Trades per day 0.10 1.20 3.90 6.53 9.17
Win rate 0.00% 8.33% 5.98% 9.69% 11.64%
Profit factor 0.00 0.11 0.15 0.70 0.64
Payoff ratio 0.00 1.23 2.32 6.56 4.87
Expectancy -0.1032 -0.2091 -0.4235 -0.2605 -0.2643
Average win 0.0000 0.3152 1.2237 6.3944 4.0570
Average loss 0.1032 0.2568 0.5283 0.9749 0.8333
Average trade -0.1032 -0.2091 -0.4235 -0.2605 -0.2643
Max win streak 0 1 1 3 3
Max loss streak 3 13 35 23 24
Time in market 0.39% 2.15% 5.58% 24.72% 47.10%
Turnover 0.00 0.01 0.07 0.29 0.33
Realised P&L -0.31 -7.53 -49.55 -51.06 -72.68
Unrealised P&L 0.00 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00
Fees paid 0.20 3.92 27.50 63.73 69.03
Fee drag 0.02% 0.39% 2.75% 6.37% 6.90%
Final equity 999.69 992.47 950.45 948.94 927.32

5m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return -0.08% -0.86% -3.52% -10.91% -1.47%
CAGR -0.96% -10.02% -35.30% -75.47% -16.51%
Buy and hold 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83%
Edge vs B&H -21.91% -22.69% -25.34% -32.74% -23.30%
Volatility (ann.) 0.19% 0.83% 3.63% 9.26% 13.30%
Sharpe -4.97 -12.71 -11.99 -15.12 -1.29
Sortino -0.23 -7.03 -7.93 -10.10 -1.30
Calmar -12.11 -10.55 -9.99 -6.88 -1.90
Omega 0.39 0.42 0.57 0.73 0.98
Max drawdown 0.08% 0.95% 3.53% 10.98% 8.69%
Ulcer index 0.0007 0.0056 0.0186 0.0600 0.0464
Drawdown episodes 1 5 2 1 34
Longest underwater (days) 26.0 28.4 28.4 29.7 21.7
Recovery factor -1.00 -0.91 -1.00 -0.99 -0.17
VaR 95% -0.018% -0.089% -0.328% -0.925% -1.057%
VaR 99% -0.062% -0.182% -0.456% -1.459% -1.072%
CVaR 95% -0.040% -0.136% -0.392% -1.192% -1.064%
Skew -4.44 -1.87 0.28 -0.25 2.24
Excess kurtosis 19.37 4.74 0.72 0.86 4.43
Best day 0.00% 0.02% 0.27% 0.54% 3.61%
Worst day -0.06% -0.18% -0.46% -1.46% -1.07%
Positive days 0 5 5 3 6
Negative days 2 18 24 26 24
Round trips 3 30 83 145 178
Winning / losing trades 0 / 3 4 / 26 9 / 74 14 / 131 22 / 156
Trades per day 0.10 1.00 2.77 4.83 5.93
Win rate 0.00% 13.33% 10.84% 9.66% 12.36%
Profit factor 0.00 0.03 0.17 0.14 0.90
Payoff ratio 0.00 0.22 1.40 1.36 6.38
Expectancy -0.2644 -0.2881 -0.4236 -0.7523 -0.0827
Average win 0.0000 0.0750 0.7988 1.3197 6.0255
Average loss 0.2644 0.3439 0.5723 0.9737 0.9441
Average trade -0.2644 -0.2881 -0.4236 -0.7523 -0.0827
Max win streak 0 1 2 2 3
Max loss streak 3 12 15 36 34
Time in market 0.17% 1.69% 4.32% 19.11% 48.77%
Turnover 0.00 0.01 0.05 0.15 0.28
Realised P&L -0.79 -8.64 -35.16 -109.08 -14.72
Unrealised P&L 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fees paid 0.15 3.04 17.70 44.55 46.14
Fee drag 0.01% 0.30% 1.77% 4.45% 4.61%
Final equity 999.21 991.36 964.84 890.92 985.28

Every number on this page is read from the run record that produced it — the audit pipeline writes the page and the record together, so the two cannot drift apart.

With the break-even guard FAIL · 2 fail

Exits: no exit below average entry plus fees, stops included

The metric set the portfolio dashboard reports, computed per cell so a backtested configuration and a running one read on the same axes. Portfolio-level measures (concentration, pairwise correlation, beta against a benchmark) are omitted: one strategy on one pair has no cross-sectional structure to measure, and printing a null would imply the number exists.

1m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 0.32% 3.30% 6.69% 15.78% 17.21%
CAGR 3.95% 48.36% 119.99% 494.56% 590.50%
Buy and hold 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88%
Edge vs B&H -21.56% -18.59% -15.19% -6.10% -4.67%
Volatility (ann.) 1.32% 11.01% 27.44% 35.66% 38.76%
Sharpe 2.95 3.64 3.01 5.18 5.18
Sortino 1.92 3.50 2.93 5.20 5.20
Calmar 15.85 24.05 23.91 77.84 85.73
Omega 1.05 1.02 1.01 1.02 1.02
Max drawdown 0.25% 2.01% 5.02% 6.35% 6.89%
Ulcer index 0.0006 0.0072 0.0206 0.0290 0.0314
Drawdown episodes 12 41 57 106 106
Longest underwater (days) 16.9 10.9 8.4 9.7 9.7
Recovery factor 1.28 1.64 1.33 2.48 2.50
VaR 95% -0.036% -0.511% -1.834% -1.991% -2.164%
VaR 99% -0.037% -0.590% -2.210% -3.355% -3.638%
CVaR 95% -0.037% -0.551% -2.022% -2.673% -2.901%
Skew 1.85 3.69 1.35 1.46 1.48
Excess kurtosis 3.93 15.28 2.13 2.43 2.47
Best day 0.11% 3.64% 5.15% 7.19% 7.86%
Worst day -0.04% -0.59% -2.21% -3.35% -3.64%
Positive days 14 16 15 17 17
Negative days 7 14 15 13 13
Round trips 17 31 24 25 26
Winning / losing trades 17 / 0 31 / 0 24 / 0 25 / 0 26 / 0
Trades per day 0.57 1.03 0.80 0.83 0.87
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 0.1876 1.4955 4.4933 8.6679 9.1157
Average win 0.1876 1.4955 4.4933 8.6679 9.1157
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 0.1876 1.4955 4.4933 8.6679 9.1157
Max win streak 17 31 24 25 26
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 10.89% 72.73% 91.35% 98.35% 98.35%
Turnover 0.00 0.05 0.11 0.22 0.24
Realised P&L 3.19 46.36 107.84 216.70 237.01
Unrealised P&L -0.00 -13.41 -40.89 -58.90 -64.89
Fees paid 2.28 8.32 13.23 15.68 17.84
Fee drag 0.23% 0.83% 1.32% 1.57% 1.78%
Final equity 1003.19 1032.95 1066.95 1157.80 1172.12

3m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 0.05% 0.12% -1.01% 13.97% 15.87%
CAGR 0.60% 1.49% -11.64% 390.79% 500.45%
Buy and hold 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86%
Edge vs B&H -21.81% -21.74% -22.87% -7.89% -5.99%
Volatility (ann.) 0.63% 5.30% 18.54% 35.20% 38.26%
Sharpe 0.95 0.31 -0.58 4.70 4.88
Sortino 0.17 0.25 -0.51 4.71 4.89
Calmar 2.92 1.41 -2.44 59.60 70.71
Omega 1.04 1.00 0.99 1.04 1.04
Max drawdown 0.20% 1.05% 4.77% 6.56% 7.08%
Ulcer index 0.0002 0.0036 0.0166 0.0322 0.0339
Drawdown episodes 7 24 19 55 60
Longest underwater (days) 16.8 18.0 18.0 13.5 9.7
Recovery factor 0.24 0.12 -0.21 2.13 2.24
VaR 95% 0.000% -0.326% -1.213% -1.959% -2.129%
VaR 99% 0.000% -0.341% -1.283% -3.142% -3.407%
CVaR 95% 0.000% -0.333% -1.248% -2.550% -2.768%
Skew 3.56 -0.09 -0.28 1.49 1.46
Excess kurtosis 13.00 0.76 -0.30 2.40 2.23
Best day 0.03% 0.45% 1.35% 7.55% 8.20%
Worst day 0.00% -0.34% -1.28% -3.14% -3.41%
Positive days 5 15 17 15 15
Negative days 0 10 12 14 14
Round trips 3 16 15 13 12
Winning / losing trades 3 / 0 16 / 0 15 / 0 13 / 0 12 / 0
Trades per day 0.10 0.53 0.50 0.43 0.40
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 0.1632 0.5152 1.8763 14.9586 18.3078
Average win 0.1632 0.5152 1.8763 14.9586 18.3078
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 0.1632 0.5152 1.8763 14.9586 18.3078
Max win streak 3 16 15 13 12
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 3.13% 60.83% 79.57% 97.65% 97.66%
Turnover 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.19 0.22
Realised P&L 0.49 8.24 28.15 194.46 219.69
Unrealised P&L -0.00 -7.03 -38.27 -54.78 -60.97
Fees paid 0.30 3.31 7.56 8.36 8.45
Fee drag 0.03% 0.33% 0.76% 0.84% 0.84%
Final equity 1000.49 1001.22 989.88 1139.68 1158.72

5m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 0.07% -0.21% 16.70% 15.51% 16.80%
CAGR 0.91% -2.58% 554.72% 478.06% 561.83%
Buy and hold 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83%
Edge vs B&H -21.75% -22.04% -5.13% -6.32% -5.02%
Volatility (ann.) 0.41% 5.83% 19.55% 34.64% 37.48%
Sharpe 2.20 -0.42 9.71 5.24 5.23
Sortino 0.94 -0.38 9.94 5.40 5.42
Calmar 15.47 -1.69 165.57 72.48 78.59
Omega 1.24 0.99 1.17 1.06 1.06
Max drawdown 0.06% 1.53% 3.35% 6.60% 7.15%
Ulcer index 0.0005 0.0049 0.0191 0.0301 0.0328
Drawdown episodes 14 13 42 49 47
Longest underwater (days) 21.5 8.8 21.7 13.3 13.3
Recovery factor 1.27 -0.14 4.98 2.35 2.35
VaR 95% 0.000% -0.450% -0.513% -1.909% -2.075%
VaR 99% -0.004% -0.504% -0.538% -3.206% -3.477%
CVaR 95% -0.000% -0.477% -0.526% -2.558% -2.776%
Skew 4.86 0.97 2.99 1.70 1.71
Excess kurtosis 22.67 4.03 7.82 2.96 2.99
Best day 0.07% 0.85% 6.98% 7.56% 8.21%
Worst day -0.00% -0.50% -0.54% -3.21% -3.48%
Positive days 5 17 18 16 16
Negative days 1 11 11 14 14
Round trips 2 11 19 10 12
Winning / losing trades 2 / 0 11 / 0 19 / 0 10 / 0 12 / 0
Trades per day 0.07 0.37 0.63 0.33 0.40
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 0.3742 0.8601 9.1831 20.7001 18.7688
Average win 0.3742 0.8601 9.1831 20.7001 18.7688
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 0.3742 0.8601 9.1831 20.7001 18.7688
Max win streak 2 11 19 10 12
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 0.94% 49.81% 74.26% 95.88% 96.85%
Turnover 0.00 0.01 0.17 0.21 0.23
Realised P&L 0.75 9.46 174.48 207.00 225.23
Unrealised P&L 0.00 -11.61 -7.47 -51.88 -57.18
Fees paid 0.23 2.51 9.70 6.31 8.50
Fee drag 0.02% 0.25% 0.97% 0.63% 0.85%
Final equity 1000.75 997.85 1167.01 1155.12 1168.04

Every number on this page is read from the run record that produced it — the audit pipeline writes the page and the record together, so the two cannot drift apart.

What the guard is, and what a better number under it means. The break-even guard refuses any exit below average entry plus fees. It cannot improve a strategy's judgement — it can only stop it selling at a loss, which means holding the position instead. Across the pack that turns a strategy that churned into one that buys and waits: trade counts collapse and time in market rises towards 100%. In a window where the asset itself rose, that reads as a much better return while being strictly less of a strategy.

So read the return next to round trips, time in market and edge vs buy and hold. The last of those is the one that matters: not one strategy in this matrix beat simply holding the asset, in either run.

Ignore the win rate and the profit factor under the guard. Both count closed trades only, and the guard closes nothing at a loss — in all 101 guarded runs the number of losing closed trades is exactly zero. So the win rate goes to 100% and the profit factor becomes undefined for arithmetic reasons, while the losses sit in the position that is still open. The unrealised row is where they went.