← ASkewMM_Heavy

ASkewMM_Heavy — metrics

Unguarded: PASSGuarded: PASSNeutralMMgunbot-quant

BTCUSDT · 2026-08-13 01:50 → 2026-09-12 01:50 UTC (30 days) · 0.03% fee + 2 bps slippage · 1,000 quote, one figure for every cell

The same document for both runs of the same measurement — first as the strategy ships, then with the break-even guard. Everything else about the two runs is identical.

As it ships PASS

Exits: the strategy's own exits, stops included

The metric set the portfolio dashboard reports, computed per cell so a backtested configuration and a running one read on the same axes. Portfolio-level measures (concentration, pairwise correlation, beta against a benchmark) are omitted: one strategy on one pair has no cross-sectional structure to measure, and printing a null would imply the number exists.

1m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return -2.46% -3.77% -9.23% -7.77% -11.96%
CAGR -26.12% -37.33% -69.21% -62.60% -78.76%
Buy and hold 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88%
Edge vs B&H -24.34% -25.65% -31.11% -29.65% -33.84%
Volatility (ann.) 10.63% 12.97% 17.25% 20.25% 24.94%
Sharpe -2.79 -3.54 -6.74 -4.76 -6.09
Sortino -2.72 -3.47 -6.52 -4.61 -5.82
Calmar -4.60 -5.15 -5.91 -5.88 -5.28
Omega 0.99 0.98 0.97 0.98 0.97
Max drawdown 5.68% 7.25% 11.71% 10.64% 14.92%
Ulcer index 0.0262 0.0327 0.0533 0.0456 0.0683
Drawdown episodes 83 96 71 88 91
Longest underwater (days) 21.7 21.7 21.7 21.7 21.6
Recovery factor -0.43 -0.52 -0.79 -0.73 -0.80
VaR 95% -0.922% -1.251% -1.736% -1.817% -2.413%
VaR 99% -1.135% -1.310% -1.894% -2.088% -2.450%
CVaR 95% -1.029% -1.280% -1.815% -1.953% -2.432%
Skew 1.25 1.31 1.06 0.98 0.76
Excess kurtosis 1.61 1.92 1.34 1.10 0.52
Best day 1.66% 2.16% 2.43% 2.86% 3.03%
Worst day -1.14% -1.31% -1.89% -2.09% -2.45%
Positive days 8 8 6 10 10
Negative days 22 22 24 20 20
Round trips 5,730 7,147 6,154 3,919 3,633
Winning / losing trades 2,185 / 3,545 2,868 / 4,279 2,411 / 3,743 1,682 / 2,237 1,546 / 2,087
Trades per day 191.00 238.23 205.13 130.63 121.10
Win rate 38.13% 40.13% 39.18% 42.92% 42.55%
Profit factor 0.79 0.74 0.59 0.66 0.60
Payoff ratio 1.28 1.10 0.92 0.88 0.81
Expectancy -0.0042 -0.0052 -0.0150 -0.0197 -0.0329
Average win 0.0409 0.0370 0.0552 0.0910 0.1162
Average loss 0.0321 0.0336 0.0602 0.1030 0.1433
Average trade -0.0042 -0.0052 -0.0150 -0.0197 -0.0329
Max win streak 121 151 124 175 182
Max loss streak 161 216 217 182 187
Time in market 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Turnover 0.20 0.25 0.36 0.38 0.48
Realised P&L -24.28 -37.44 -92.14 -77.36 -119.35
Unrealised P&L -0.30 -0.24 -0.14 -0.30 -0.23
Fees paid 40.55 50.54 87.07 82.88 102.31
Fee drag 4.05% 5.05% 8.71% 8.29% 10.23%
Final equity 975.51 962.41 907.80 922.42 880.51

3m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 2.88% 3.41% 2.83% 5.53% 5.34%
CAGR 41.20% 50.29% 40.36% 92.55% 88.42%
Buy and hold 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86%
Edge vs B&H -18.98% -18.45% -19.03% -16.33% -16.52%
Volatility (ann.) 10.20% 12.37% 16.53% 20.24% 24.96%
Sharpe 3.43 3.35 2.13 3.34 2.66
Sortino 3.47 3.40 2.16 3.38 2.67
Calmar 16.64 18.77 10.29 25.93 16.69
Omega 1.03 1.03 1.02 1.03 1.02
Max drawdown 2.48% 2.68% 3.92% 3.57% 5.30%
Ulcer index 0.0114 0.0116 0.0166 0.0132 0.0214
Drawdown episodes 76 86 96 103 108
Longest underwater (days) 18.0 18.0 17.8 15.0 15.0
Recovery factor 1.16 1.27 0.72 1.55 1.01
VaR 95% -0.573% -0.639% -0.857% -1.108% -1.395%
VaR 99% -0.756% -0.751% -0.946% -1.108% -1.473%
CVaR 95% -0.665% -0.695% -0.902% -1.108% -1.434%
Skew 1.34 1.11 1.03 0.77 0.85
Excess kurtosis 1.38 0.66 0.58 -0.08 0.47
Best day 1.85% 1.98% 2.38% 2.64% 3.57%
Worst day -0.76% -0.75% -0.95% -1.11% -1.47%
Positive days 13 14 14 14 14
Negative days 16 15 15 15 15
Round trips 2,231 2,707 2,313 1,399 1,292
Winning / losing trades 1,105 / 1,126 1,406 / 1,301 1,228 / 1,085 781 / 618 686 / 606
Trades per day 74.37 90.24 77.11 46.64 43.07
Win rate 49.53% 51.94% 53.09% 55.83% 53.10%
Profit factor 1.55 1.54 1.30 1.57 1.42
Payoff ratio 1.58 1.43 1.15 1.24 1.25
Expectancy 0.0131 0.0129 0.0125 0.0407 0.0431
Average win 0.0745 0.0701 0.1029 0.2004 0.2767
Average loss 0.0471 0.0491 0.0897 0.1611 0.2213
Average trade 0.0131 0.0129 0.0125 0.0407 0.0431
Max win streak 239 261 233 109 119
Max loss streak 151 120 95 57 55
Time in market 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Turnover 0.14 0.16 0.22 0.26 0.32
Realised P&L 29.28 34.79 29.00 56.98 55.69
Unrealised P&L -0.51 -0.72 -0.73 -1.64 -2.23
Fees paid 15.66 18.96 32.47 29.29 36.11
Fee drag 1.57% 1.90% 3.25% 2.93% 3.61%
Final equity 1029.09 1034.38 1028.58 1055.66 1053.76

5m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 4.03% 4.48% 4.79% 5.83% 7.43%
CAGR 61.69% 70.53% 76.71% 99.33% 139.27%
Buy and hold 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83%
Edge vs B&H -17.80% -17.34% -17.04% -16.00% -14.40%
Volatility (ann.) 9.87% 11.57% 15.11% 18.89% 24.05%
Sharpe 4.92 4.67 3.84 3.75 3.75
Sortino 5.12 4.86 3.98 3.80 3.82
Calmar 36.80 36.26 26.92 28.88 28.46
Omega 1.05 1.05 1.04 1.04 1.04
Max drawdown 1.68% 1.95% 2.85% 3.44% 4.89%
Ulcer index 0.0077 0.0093 0.0134 0.0155 0.0211
Drawdown episodes 66 72 80 83 80
Longest underwater (days) 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0
Recovery factor 2.40 2.31 1.68 1.70 1.52
VaR 95% -0.477% -0.458% -0.784% -1.052% -1.516%
VaR 99% -0.798% -1.079% -1.475% -2.036% -2.490%
CVaR 95% -0.638% -0.768% -1.129% -1.544% -2.003%
Skew 1.19 0.88 0.54 0.19 0.32
Excess kurtosis 0.89 0.40 0.01 -0.19 -0.23
Best day 1.71% 1.74% 1.93% 2.00% 2.79%
Worst day -0.80% -1.08% -1.47% -2.04% -2.49%
Positive days 15 14 15 18 15
Negative days 15 16 15 12 15
Round trips 1,286 1,546 1,317 780 727
Winning / losing trades 645 / 641 798 / 748 730 / 587 456 / 324 439 / 288
Trades per day 42.87 51.53 43.90 26.00 24.23
Win rate 50.16% 51.62% 55.43% 58.46% 60.39%
Profit factor 2.42 2.32 1.86 1.93 1.86
Payoff ratio 2.40 2.17 1.50 1.37 1.22
Expectancy 0.0328 0.0306 0.0384 0.0792 0.1087
Average win 0.1115 0.1042 0.1499 0.2807 0.3895
Average loss 0.0464 0.0480 0.1003 0.2043 0.3194
Average trade 0.0328 0.0306 0.0384 0.0792 0.1087
Max win streak 118 111 123 79 79
Max loss streak 85 111 53 50 53
Time in market 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Turnover 0.10 0.12 0.17 0.19 0.26
Realised P&L 42.19 47.27 50.58 61.81 79.03
Unrealised P&L -1.89 -2.41 -2.65 -3.46 -4.66
Fees paid 8.94 10.79 18.45 16.40 20.45
Fee drag 0.89% 1.08% 1.84% 1.64% 2.04%
Final equity 1040.74 1045.30 1048.36 1058.79 1074.81

Every number on this page is read from the run record that produced it — the audit pipeline writes the page and the record together, so the two cannot drift apart.

With the break-even guard PASS

Exits: no exit below average entry plus fees, stops included

The metric set the portfolio dashboard reports, computed per cell so a backtested configuration and a running one read on the same axes. Portfolio-level measures (concentration, pairwise correlation, beta against a benchmark) are omitted: one strategy on one pair has no cross-sectional structure to measure, and printing a null would imply the number exists.

1m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 5.36% 5.85% 5.20% 4.81% 5.90%
CAGR 88.76% 99.76% 85.31% 77.04% 100.95%
Buy and hold 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88%
Edge vs B&H -16.52% -16.03% -16.68% -17.07% -15.98%
Volatility (ann.) 12.47% 17.40% 27.37% 31.09% 33.79%
Sharpe 5.16 4.06 2.39 1.99 2.23
Sortino 5.03 3.96 2.31 1.92 2.15
Calmar 38.75 31.89 16.25 13.20 16.08
Omega 1.02 1.02 1.01 1.01 1.01
Max drawdown 2.29% 3.13% 5.25% 5.84% 6.28%
Ulcer index 0.0084 0.0116 0.0213 0.0244 0.0264
Drawdown episodes 176 193 190 202 192
Longest underwater (days) 8.2 6.6 8.2 8.2 8.2
Recovery factor 2.34 1.87 0.99 0.82 0.94
VaR 95% -0.890% -1.243% -1.765% -1.974% -2.093%
VaR 99% -1.416% -1.957% -2.829% -3.269% -3.499%
CVaR 95% -1.153% -1.600% -2.297% -2.622% -2.796%
Skew 0.71 0.53 0.37 0.34 0.49
Excess kurtosis 1.05 0.85 0.15 0.18 0.35
Best day 1.90% 2.68% 3.54% 3.92% 4.34%
Worst day -1.42% -1.96% -2.83% -3.27% -3.50%
Positive days 18 18 16 16 16
Negative days 12 12 14 14 14
Round trips 1,026 1,220 1,176 1,141 1,137
Winning / losing trades 1,026 / 0 1,220 / 0 1,176 / 0 1,141 / 0 1,137 / 0
Trades per day 34.20 40.67 39.20 38.03 37.90
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 0.0657 0.0645 0.0834 0.0878 0.1018
Average win 0.0657 0.0645 0.0834 0.0878 0.1018
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 0.0657 0.0645 0.0834 0.0878 0.1018
Max win streak 1,026 1,220 1,176 1,141 1,137
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 97.31% 98.30% 99.75% 99.84% 100.00%
Turnover 0.07 0.08 0.10 0.10 0.12
Realised P&L 67.44 78.64 98.11 100.19 115.71
Unrealised P&L -13.83 -20.11 -46.10 -52.12 -56.67
Fees paid 8.76 10.56 18.12 26.69 35.29
Fee drag 0.88% 1.06% 1.81% 2.67% 3.53%
Final equity 1053.70 1058.61 1052.10 1048.16 1059.13

3m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 5.12% 6.07% 7.72% 7.86% 6.48%
CAGR 83.65% 104.83% 147.14% 151.08% 114.71%
Buy and hold 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86%
Edge vs B&H -16.74% -15.79% -14.14% -14.00% -15.38%
Volatility (ann.) 11.53% 15.48% 23.85% 27.73% 32.35%
Sharpe 5.33 4.71 3.91 3.46 2.52
Sortino 5.30 4.73 3.94 3.49 2.48
Calmar 38.03 39.48 38.65 35.05 18.72
Omega 1.04 1.04 1.03 1.03 1.02
Max drawdown 2.20% 2.66% 3.81% 4.31% 6.13%
Ulcer index 0.0073 0.0081 0.0136 0.0164 0.0248
Drawdown episodes 113 126 146 137 126
Longest underwater (days) 8.2 8.2 6.5 6.5 8.2
Recovery factor 2.33 2.29 2.03 1.82 1.06
VaR 95% -0.553% -0.784% -1.719% -1.968% -2.058%
VaR 99% -0.897% -1.003% -1.855% -2.372% -3.058%
CVaR 95% -0.725% -0.893% -1.787% -2.170% -2.558%
Skew 0.90 0.58 0.42 0.57 0.47
Excess kurtosis 0.32 -0.55 -0.24 0.16 -0.16
Best day 1.71% 1.81% 3.03% 3.84% 3.83%
Worst day -0.90% -1.00% -1.86% -2.37% -3.06%
Positive days 16 17 18 18 15
Negative days 13 12 11 11 14
Round trips 543 806 850 671 614
Winning / losing trades 543 / 0 806 / 0 850 / 0 671 / 0 614 / 0
Trades per day 18.10 26.87 28.34 22.37 20.47
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 0.1209 0.1003 0.1271 0.1713 0.1960
Average win 0.1209 0.1003 0.1271 0.1713 0.1960
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 0.1209 0.1003 0.1271 0.1713 0.1960
Max win streak 543 806 850 671 614
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 96.74% 99.34% 99.10% 100.00% 100.00%
Turnover 0.07 0.08 0.11 0.11 0.12
Realised P&L 65.65 80.86 108.00 114.92 120.37
Unrealised P&L -14.40 -20.14 -30.79 -36.30 -55.54
Fees paid 4.71 6.20 13.00 18.01 17.93
Fee drag 0.47% 0.62% 1.30% 1.80% 1.79%
Final equity 1051.57 1061.04 1077.53 1078.93 1065.13

5m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 2.33% 6.36% 8.04% 10.75% 10.34%
CAGR 32.39% 111.75% 156.13% 246.34% 231.04%
Buy and hold 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83%
Edge vs B&H -19.50% -15.47% -13.79% -11.08% -11.49%
Volatility (ann.) 10.96% 14.19% 22.95% 25.88% 29.55%
Sharpe 2.61 5.36 4.21 4.93 4.20
Sortino 2.62 5.48 4.35 5.14 4.34
Calmar 17.02 40.17 40.04 56.12 49.09
Omega 1.03 1.06 1.04 1.05 1.04
Max drawdown 1.90% 2.78% 3.90% 4.39% 4.71%
Ulcer index 0.0072 0.0090 0.0140 0.0146 0.0168
Drawdown episodes 72 90 117 129 111
Longest underwater (days) 8.2 9.5 6.5 6.5 6.6
Recovery factor 1.23 2.29 2.06 2.45 2.20
VaR 95% -0.851% -1.196% -1.682% -1.870% -1.985%
VaR 99% -1.045% -1.641% -2.368% -2.708% -2.926%
CVaR 95% -0.948% -1.419% -2.025% -2.289% -2.455%
Skew 0.66 0.54 0.43 0.25 0.54
Excess kurtosis 1.38 1.21 0.63 0.52 0.70
Best day 1.72% 2.54% 3.49% 3.69% 4.24%
Worst day -1.04% -1.64% -2.37% -2.71% -2.93%
Positive days 17 19 20 19 18
Negative days 13 11 10 11 12
Round trips 344 533 671 658 528
Winning / losing trades 344 / 0 533 / 0 671 / 0 658 / 0 528 / 0
Trades per day 11.47 17.77 22.37 21.93 17.60
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 0.1006 0.1299 0.1605 0.1907 0.2429
Average win 0.1006 0.1299 0.1605 0.1907 0.2429
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 0.1006 0.1299 0.1605 0.1907 0.2429
Max win streak 344 533 671 658 528
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 97.42% 96.72% 99.81% 100.00% 100.00%
Turnover 0.03 0.07 0.11 0.13 0.13
Realised P&L 34.62 69.24 107.67 125.50 128.23
Unrealised P&L -11.28 -5.60 -27.27 -17.95 -24.79
Fees paid 2.72 4.32 9.99 15.35 17.37
Fee drag 0.27% 0.43% 1.00% 1.53% 1.74%
Final equity 1023.78 1064.07 1080.84 1107.98 1103.87

Every number on this page is read from the run record that produced it — the audit pipeline writes the page and the record together, so the two cannot drift apart.

What the guard is, and what a better number under it means. The break-even guard refuses any exit below average entry plus fees. It cannot improve a strategy's judgement — it can only stop it selling at a loss, which means holding the position instead. Across the pack that turns a strategy that churned into one that buys and waits: trade counts collapse and time in market rises towards 100%. In a window where the asset itself rose, that reads as a much better return while being strictly less of a strategy.

So read the return next to round trips, time in market and edge vs buy and hold. The last of those is the one that matters: not one strategy in this matrix beat simply holding the asset, in either run.

Ignore the win rate and the profit factor under the guard. Both count closed trades only, and the guard closes nothing at a loss — in all 101 guarded runs the number of losing closed trades is exactly zero. So the win rate goes to 100% and the profit factor becomes undefined for arithmetic reasons, while the losses sit in the position that is still open. The unrealised row is where they went.