← ASkewMM_Light

ASkewMM_Light — metrics

Unguarded: WARN · 6 warnGuarded: WARN · 6 warnNeutralMMgunbot-quant

BTCUSDT · 2026-08-13 01:50 → 2026-09-12 01:50 UTC (30 days) · 0.03% fee + 2 bps slippage · 1,000 quote, one figure for every cell

The same document for both runs of the same measurement — first as the strategy ships, then with the break-even guard. Everything else about the two runs is identical.

As it ships WARN · 6 warn

Exits: the strategy's own exits, stops included

The metric set the portfolio dashboard reports, computed per cell so a backtested configuration and a running one read on the same axes. Portfolio-level measures (concentration, pairwise correlation, beta against a benchmark) are omitted: one strategy on one pair has no cross-sectional structure to measure, and printing a null would imply the number exists.

1m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 10.95% 10.96% 11.09% 9.89% 7.76%
CAGR 254.20% 254.50% 259.45% 214.95% 148.34%
Buy and hold 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88%
Edge vs B&H -10.93% -10.92% -10.79% -11.99% -14.12%
Volatility (ann.) 21.71% 21.67% 24.23% 26.71% 29.71%
Sharpe 5.93 5.95 5.40 4.43 3.21
Sortino 5.88 5.90 5.38 4.41 3.19
Calmar 65.98 66.29 60.73 40.31 20.78
Omega 1.03 1.03 1.02 1.02 1.01
Max drawdown 3.85% 3.84% 4.27% 5.33% 7.14%
Ulcer index 0.0172 0.0171 0.0189 0.0235 0.0313
Drawdown episodes 127 127 124 126 122
Longest underwater (days) 8.2 8.2 9.8 18.0 18.0
Recovery factor 2.84 2.86 2.60 1.85 1.09
VaR 95% -1.186% -1.182% -1.405% -1.705% -2.028%
VaR 99% -2.020% -2.013% -2.120% -2.253% -2.371%
CVaR 95% -1.603% -1.598% -1.762% -1.979% -2.199%
Skew 1.36 1.37 1.42 1.41 1.43
Excess kurtosis 1.78 1.79 1.96 1.94 2.05
Best day 4.26% 4.26% 4.69% 5.08% 5.52%
Worst day -2.02% -2.01% -2.12% -2.25% -2.37%
Positive days 17 17 17 15 13
Negative days 13 13 13 15 17
Round trips 1 1 1,709 2,869 3,673
Winning / losing trades 1 / 0 1 / 0 932 / 777 1,406 / 1,463 1,719 / 1,954
Trades per day 0.03 0.03 56.97 95.63 122.43
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 54.53% 49.01% 46.80%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ 3.23 1.97 1.48
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ 2.69 2.05 1.68
Expectancy 1.1519 1.6115 0.0661 0.0347 0.0214
Average win 1.1519 1.6115 0.1757 0.1435 0.1413
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0653 0.0699 0.0840
Average trade 1.1519 1.6115 0.0661 0.0347 0.0214
Max win streak 1 1 455 312 343
Max loss streak 0 0 163 201 276
Time in market 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Turnover 0.00 0.00 0.21 0.30 0.41
Realised P&L 1.15 1.61 113.05 99.50 78.75
Unrealised P&L 108.40 108.02 -2.15 -0.61 -1.11
Fees paid 0.00 0.00 10.21 24.25 43.99
Fee drag 0.00% 0.00% 1.02% 2.43% 4.40%
Final equity 1109.64 1109.72 1110.98 1098.97 1077.72

3m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 10.92% 10.92% 12.59% 13.56% 14.02%
CAGR 252.80% 253.09% 323.14% 369.61% 393.75%
Buy and hold 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86%
Edge vs B&H -10.94% -10.94% -9.27% -8.30% -7.84%
Volatility (ann.) 21.27% 21.21% 23.68% 26.07% 29.10%
Sharpe 6.03 6.05 6.21 6.06 5.63
Sortino 6.06 6.08 6.28 6.15 5.73
Calmar 68.00 68.32 81.11 84.76 80.64
Omega 1.05 1.05 1.05 1.05 1.04
Max drawdown 3.72% 3.70% 3.98% 4.36% 4.88%
Ulcer index 0.0169 0.0168 0.0179 0.0195 0.0221
Drawdown episodes 83 83 88 88 91
Longest underwater (days) 8.2 8.2 9.5 9.5 9.8
Recovery factor 2.94 2.95 3.16 3.11 2.87
VaR 95% -1.167% -1.163% -1.320% -1.442% -1.664%
VaR 99% -1.890% -1.883% -2.218% -2.602% -3.028%
CVaR 95% -1.528% -1.523% -1.769% -2.022% -2.346%
Skew 1.37 1.38 1.22 1.00 0.83
Excess kurtosis 1.64 1.66 1.27 0.77 0.52
Best day 4.27% 4.27% 4.52% 4.63% 4.84%
Worst day -1.89% -1.88% -2.22% -2.60% -3.03%
Positive days 16 16 16 16 16
Negative days 13 13 13 13 13
Round trips 1 1 528 971 1,272
Winning / losing trades 1 / 0 1 / 0 388 / 140 601 / 370 789 / 483
Trades per day 0.03 0.03 17.60 32.37 42.40
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 73.48% 61.89% 62.03%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ 17.18 4.72 3.26
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ 6.20 2.90 2.00
Expectancy 1.1469 1.6025 0.2643 0.1517 0.1172
Average win 1.1469 1.6025 0.3820 0.3111 0.2724
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0616 0.1071 0.1364
Average trade 1.1469 1.6025 0.2643 0.1517 0.1172
Max win streak 1 1 271 336 249
Max loss streak 0 0 48 109 150
Time in market 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Turnover 0.00 0.00 0.16 0.23 0.28
Realised P&L 1.15 1.60 139.57 147.32 149.07
Unrealised P&L 108.06 107.68 -13.66 -11.72 -8.79
Fees paid 0.00 0.00 3.19 8.31 15.38
Fee drag 0.00% 0.00% 0.32% 0.83% 1.54%
Final equity 1109.53 1109.60 1126.23 1135.92 1140.60

5m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 10.89% 10.90% 12.14% 12.73% 13.08%
CAGR 251.64% 251.97% 303.10% 329.57% 346.38%
Buy and hold 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83%
Edge vs B&H -10.94% -10.93% -9.69% -9.10% -8.75%
Volatility (ann.) 21.63% 21.59% 24.04% 26.10% 28.47%
Sharpe 5.92 5.94 5.92 5.71 5.40
Sortino 6.11 6.12 6.12 5.93 5.60
Calmar 66.29 66.60 71.77 72.32 69.18
Omega 1.06 1.06 1.06 1.06 1.05
Max drawdown 3.80% 3.78% 4.22% 4.56% 5.01%
Ulcer index 0.0169 0.0168 0.0180 0.0188 0.0199
Drawdown episodes 61 61 61 62 62
Longest underwater (days) 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2
Recovery factor 2.87 2.88 2.87 2.79 2.61
VaR 95% -1.137% -1.133% -1.349% -1.574% -1.723%
VaR 99% -1.929% -1.922% -2.257% -2.617% -2.994%
CVaR 95% -1.533% -1.528% -1.803% -2.096% -2.358%
Skew 1.39 1.39 1.29 1.10 0.90
Excess kurtosis 1.78 1.79 1.65 1.31 0.97
Best day 4.25% 4.25% 4.69% 4.92% 5.00%
Worst day -1.93% -1.92% -2.26% -2.62% -2.99%
Positive days 17 17 17 17 18
Negative days 13 13 13 13 12
Round trips 1 1 301 523 712
Winning / losing trades 1 / 0 1 / 0 258 / 43 356 / 167 452 / 260
Trades per day 0.03 0.03 10.03 17.43 23.73
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 85.71% 68.07% 63.48%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ 39.93 9.47 4.39
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ 6.66 4.44 2.52
Expectancy 1.1371 1.6003 0.4292 0.2702 0.2015
Average win 1.1371 1.6003 0.5136 0.4439 0.4110
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0772 0.1000 0.1629
Average trade 1.1371 1.6003 0.4292 0.2702 0.2015
Max win streak 1 1 251 281 270
Max loss streak 0 0 28 55 99
Time in market 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Turnover 0.00 0.00 0.14 0.17 0.23
Realised P&L 1.14 1.60 129.19 141.32 143.44
Unrealised P&L 107.79 107.41 -7.73 -14.00 -12.55
Fees paid 0.00 0.00 1.82 4.48 8.62
Fee drag 0.00% 0.00% 0.18% 0.45% 0.86%
Final equity 1109.37 1109.45 1121.88 1127.76 1131.32

Every number on this page is read from the run record that produced it — the audit pipeline writes the page and the record together, so the two cannot drift apart.

With the break-even guard WARN · 6 warn

Exits: no exit below average entry plus fees, stops included

The metric set the portfolio dashboard reports, computed per cell so a backtested configuration and a running one read on the same axes. Portfolio-level measures (concentration, pairwise correlation, beta against a benchmark) are omitted: one strategy on one pair has no cross-sectional structure to measure, and printing a null would imply the number exists.

1m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 11.02% 10.99% 12.27% 13.63% 11.36%
CAGR 256.90% 255.71% 308.88% 373.20% 270.37%
Buy and hold 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88%
Edge vs B&H -10.86% -10.89% -9.61% -8.25% -10.52%
Volatility (ann.) 21.44% 21.54% 25.00% 28.51% 32.63%
Sharpe 6.04 6.00 5.76 5.60 4.18
Sortino 6.00 5.95 5.72 5.56 4.10
Calmar 68.41 67.41 71.71 79.09 47.34
Omega 1.03 1.03 1.03 1.03 1.02
Max drawdown 3.76% 3.79% 4.31% 4.72% 5.71%
Ulcer index 0.0168 0.0169 0.0180 0.0199 0.0231
Drawdown episodes 127 127 137 152 176
Longest underwater (days) 8.2 8.2 9.5 9.5 8.2
Recovery factor 2.94 2.90 2.85 2.89 1.99
VaR 95% -1.156% -1.168% -1.479% -1.793% -2.161%
VaR 99% -1.969% -1.989% -2.079% -2.140% -3.141%
CVaR 95% -1.562% -1.578% -1.779% -1.966% -2.651%
Skew 1.40 1.38 1.35 1.24 0.78
Excess kurtosis 1.87 1.83 1.61 1.21 0.94
Best day 4.26% 4.26% 4.69% 4.90% 4.91%
Worst day -1.97% -1.99% -2.08% -2.14% -3.14%
Positive days 17 17 17 18 18
Negative days 13 13 13 12 12
Round trips 1 1 802 1,514 2,477
Winning / losing trades 1 / 0 1 / 0 802 / 0 1,514 / 0 2,477 / 0
Trades per day 0.03 0.03 26.73 50.47 82.57
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 4.6077 3.2230 0.1849 0.1106 0.0628
Average win 4.6077 3.2230 0.1849 0.1106 0.0628
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 4.6077 3.2230 0.1849 0.1106 0.0628
Max win streak 1 1 802 1,514 2,477
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 99.58% 99.97%
Turnover 0.00 0.00 0.15 0.17 0.16
Realised P&L 4.61 3.22 148.26 167.38 155.55
Unrealised P&L 105.64 106.72 -25.54 -31.09 -41.92
Fees paid 0.01 0.00 4.82 7.92 8.63
Fee drag 0.00% 0.00% 0.48% 0.79% 0.86%
Final equity 1110.33 1110.03 1122.81 1136.37 1113.72

3m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 10.99% 10.95% 10.59% 14.54% 18.10%
CAGR 255.45% 254.26% 240.45% 421.89% 657.37%
Buy and hold 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86%
Edge vs B&H -10.87% -10.91% -11.27% -7.32% -3.76%
Volatility (ann.) 21.04% 21.08% 23.83% 27.63% 30.98%
Sharpe 6.13 6.11 5.26 6.12 6.69
Sortino 6.16 6.13 5.29 6.18 6.79
Calmar 70.49 69.46 42.40 83.62 106.68
Omega 1.05 1.05 1.04 1.05 1.05
Max drawdown 3.62% 3.66% 5.67% 5.05% 6.16%
Ulcer index 0.0165 0.0166 0.0238 0.0208 0.0234
Drawdown episodes 83 83 90 100 98
Longest underwater (days) 8.2 8.2 18.0 9.5 9.5
Recovery factor 3.03 2.99 1.87 2.88 2.94
VaR 95% -1.137% -1.149% -1.327% -1.626% -1.671%
VaR 99% -1.842% -1.860% -2.220% -2.577% -2.841%
CVaR 95% -1.489% -1.504% -1.773% -2.102% -2.256%
Skew 1.40 1.39 1.39 1.02 1.24
Excess kurtosis 1.72 1.70 2.12 0.70 1.46
Best day 4.27% 4.27% 4.52% 4.72% 6.51%
Worst day -1.84% -1.86% -2.22% -2.58% -2.84%
Positive days 16 16 16 18 18
Negative days 13 13 13 11 11
Round trips 1 1 365 913 1,431
Winning / losing trades 1 / 0 1 / 0 365 / 0 913 / 0 1,431 / 0
Trades per day 0.03 0.03 12.17 30.44 47.70
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 4.5881 3.2050 0.3735 0.1916 0.1503
Average win 4.5881 3.2050 0.3735 0.1916 0.1503
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 4.5881 3.2050 0.3735 0.1916 0.1503
Max win streak 1 1 365 913 1,431
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 100.00% 100.00% 99.42% 99.40% 99.40%
Turnover 0.00 0.00 0.14 0.17 0.21
Realised P&L 4.59 3.20 136.33 174.89 215.06
Unrealised P&L 105.30 106.38 -30.37 -29.39 -33.95
Fees paid 0.01 0.00 2.94 4.72 5.87
Fee drag 0.00% 0.00% 0.29% 0.47% 0.59%
Final equity 1110.21 1109.91 1106.29 1145.82 1181.42

5m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 10.95% 10.93% 12.44% 13.47% 13.66%
CAGR 254.19% 253.14% 316.24% 365.10% 374.62%
Buy and hold 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83%
Edge vs B&H -10.88% -10.90% -9.39% -8.36% -8.17%
Volatility (ann.) 21.35% 21.46% 24.19% 27.39% 30.16%
Sharpe 6.03 5.99 6.02 5.75 5.31
Sortino 6.23 6.18 6.23 5.96 5.46
Calmar 68.69 67.72 74.91 76.40 60.97
Omega 1.06 1.06 1.06 1.06 1.05
Max drawdown 3.70% 3.74% 4.22% 4.78% 6.14%
Ulcer index 0.0165 0.0167 0.0179 0.0196 0.0247
Drawdown episodes 61 61 62 62 67
Longest underwater (days) 8.2 8.2 8.2 9.7 8.2
Recovery factor 2.96 2.92 2.95 2.82 2.22
VaR 95% -1.108% -1.119% -1.348% -1.594% -1.582%
VaR 99% -1.880% -1.899% -2.257% -2.594% -2.687%
CVaR 95% -1.494% -1.509% -1.803% -2.094% -2.134%
Skew 1.42 1.41 1.27 1.36 1.27
Excess kurtosis 1.87 1.83 1.62 2.16 1.49
Best day 4.25% 4.25% 4.69% 5.84% 5.86%
Worst day -1.88% -1.90% -2.26% -2.59% -2.69%
Positive days 17 17 17 17 17
Negative days 13 13 13 13 13
Round trips 1 1 272 617 847
Winning / losing trades 1 / 0 1 / 0 272 / 0 617 / 0 847 / 0
Trades per day 0.03 0.03 9.07 20.57 28.23
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 4.5487 3.2008 0.4868 0.2535 0.1920
Average win 4.5487 3.2008 0.4868 0.2535 0.1920
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 4.5487 3.2008 0.4868 0.2535 0.1920
Max win streak 1 1 272 617 847
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 99.93%
Turnover 0.00 0.00 0.13 0.16 0.16
Realised P&L 4.55 3.20 132.41 156.42 162.59
Unrealised P&L 105.04 106.11 -8.00 -21.69 -25.98
Fees paid 0.01 0.00 1.67 2.71 3.35
Fee drag 0.00% 0.00% 0.17% 0.27% 0.34%
Final equity 1110.02 1109.75 1124.84 1135.15 1137.05

Every number on this page is read from the run record that produced it — the audit pipeline writes the page and the record together, so the two cannot drift apart.

What the guard is, and what a better number under it means. The break-even guard refuses any exit below average entry plus fees. It cannot improve a strategy's judgement — it can only stop it selling at a loss, which means holding the position instead. Across the pack that turns a strategy that churned into one that buys and waits: trade counts collapse and time in market rises towards 100%. In a window where the asset itself rose, that reads as a much better return while being strictly less of a strategy.

So read the return next to round trips, time in market and edge vs buy and hold. The last of those is the one that matters: not one strategy in this matrix beat simply holding the asset, in either run.

Ignore the win rate and the profit factor under the guard. Both count closed trades only, and the guard closes nothing at a loss — in all 101 guarded runs the number of losing closed trades is exactly zero. So the win rate goes to 100% and the profit factor becomes undefined for arithmetic reasons, while the losses sit in the position that is still open. The unrealised row is where they went.