← ASkewMM_Medium

ASkewMM_Medium — metrics

Unguarded: WARN · 1 warnGuarded: WARN · 1 warnNeutralMMgunbot-quant

BTCUSDT · 2026-08-13 01:50 → 2026-09-12 01:50 UTC (30 days) · 0.03% fee + 2 bps slippage · 1,000 quote, one figure for every cell

The same document for both runs of the same measurement — first as the strategy ships, then with the break-even guard. Everything else about the two runs is identical.

As it ships WARN · 1 warn

Exits: the strategy's own exits, stops included

The metric set the portfolio dashboard reports, computed per cell so a backtested configuration and a running one read on the same axes. Portfolio-level measures (concentration, pairwise correlation, beta against a benchmark) are omitted: one strategy on one pair has no cross-sectional structure to measure, and printing a null would imply the number exists.

1m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 3.11% 5.67% 10.65% 10.82% 10.38%
CAGR 45.16% 95.69% 242.63% 248.96% 232.62%
Buy and hold 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88%
Edge vs B&H -18.77% -16.21% -11.23% -11.06% -11.50%
Volatility (ann.) 15.86% 20.47% 25.45% 24.57% 24.72%
Sharpe 2.43 3.38 4.97 5.21 4.99
Sortino 2.36 3.24 4.84 5.11 4.88
Calmar 11.29 20.22 58.46 63.22 61.74
Omega 1.01 1.02 1.02 1.03 1.02
Max drawdown 4.00% 4.73% 4.15% 3.94% 3.77%
Ulcer index 0.0157 0.0204 0.0184 0.0168 0.0165
Drawdown episodes 126 130 143 143 140
Longest underwater (days) 15.0 15.0 15.0 10.8 15.0
Recovery factor 0.78 1.20 2.57 2.75 2.76
VaR 95% -1.276% -1.437% -1.591% -1.247% -1.526%
VaR 99% -1.815% -1.954% -1.957% -1.584% -1.646%
CVaR 95% -1.546% -1.696% -1.774% -1.416% -1.586%
Skew 0.08 0.48 1.04 1.37 1.27
Excess kurtosis 0.25 0.13 0.87 1.71 1.52
Best day 1.92% 2.71% 3.84% 4.03% 4.15%
Worst day -1.82% -1.95% -1.96% -1.58% -1.65%
Positive days 15 15 14 13 13
Negative days 15 15 16 17 17
Round trips 17 47 96 161 206
Winning / losing trades 10 / 7 23 / 24 46 / 50 78 / 83 94 / 112
Trades per day 0.57 1.57 3.20 5.37 6.87
Win rate 58.82% 48.94% 47.92% 48.45% 45.63%
Profit factor 2.98 2.30 3.17 3.00 3.00
Payoff ratio 2.09 2.40 3.44 3.19 3.58
Expectancy 2.6872 1.2592 1.1394 0.6836 0.5159
Average win 6.8700 4.5486 3.4745 2.1174 1.6958
Average loss 3.2882 1.8932 1.0089 0.6639 0.4743
Average trade 2.6872 1.2592 1.1394 0.6836 0.5159
Max win streak 9 19 20 25 51
Max loss streak 3 8 14 26 33
Time in market 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Turnover 0.09 0.15 0.21 0.22 0.21
Realised P&L 45.68 59.18 109.38 110.05 106.28
Unrealised P&L -14.58 -2.44 -2.85 -1.86 -2.44
Fees paid 3.97 7.68 11.28 13.61 12.32
Fee drag 0.40% 0.77% 1.13% 1.36% 1.23%
Final equity 1031.19 1056.83 1106.62 1108.28 1103.92

3m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 8.80% 10.39% 13.67% 9.81% 8.36%
CAGR 179.10% 232.78% 375.31% 212.13% 165.50%
Buy and hold 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86%
Edge vs B&H -13.06% -11.47% -8.19% -12.05% -13.50%
Volatility (ann.) 12.61% 21.26% 27.26% 26.26% 25.67%
Sharpe 8.20 5.76 5.85 4.47 3.93
Sortino 8.80 5.84 5.93 4.43 3.89
Calmar 86.36 57.03 69.79 31.97 25.64
Omega 1.07 1.05 1.05 1.04 1.03
Max drawdown 2.07% 4.08% 5.38% 6.64% 6.45%
Ulcer index 0.0069 0.0165 0.0247 0.0290 0.0288
Drawdown episodes 81 85 90 92 84
Longest underwater (days) 7.9 7.6 9.5 18.0 18.0
Recovery factor 4.24 2.54 2.54 1.48 1.29
VaR 95% -0.672% -1.648% -1.681% -1.495% -1.351%
VaR 99% -1.232% -2.375% -2.671% -2.839% -2.989%
CVaR 95% -0.952% -2.011% -2.176% -2.167% -2.170%
Skew 2.22 1.71 1.44 0.88 0.38
Excess kurtosis 5.54 3.99 2.63 1.22 0.03
Best day 3.95% 5.82% 6.56% 4.94% 3.36%
Worst day -1.23% -2.37% -2.67% -2.84% -2.99%
Positive days 16 17 18 18 19
Negative days 13 12 11 11 10
Round trips 5 15 34 59 81
Winning / losing trades 4 / 1 11 / 4 25 / 9 35 / 24 49 / 32
Trades per day 0.17 0.50 1.13 1.97 2.70
Win rate 80.00% 73.33% 73.53% 59.32% 60.49%
Profit factor 42.50 38.18 11.62 4.33 4.09
Payoff ratio 10.63 13.88 4.18 2.97 2.67
Expectancy 16.8629 7.4210 4.4259 1.8607 1.1689
Average win 21.5865 10.3918 6.5862 4.0792 2.5567
Average loss 2.0315 0.7486 1.5751 1.3746 0.9562
Average trade 16.8629 7.4210 4.4259 1.8607 1.1689
Max win streak 4 11 13 26 33
Max loss streak 1 2 4 11 12
Time in market 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Turnover 0.09 0.12 0.18 0.18 0.16
Realised P&L 84.31 111.31 150.48 109.78 94.68
Unrealised P&L 3.73 -7.42 -13.76 -11.69 -11.09
Fees paid 1.13 2.56 4.11 5.07 4.92
Fee drag 0.11% 0.26% 0.41% 0.51% 0.49%
Final equity 1088.37 1104.22 1137.04 1098.42 1083.90

5m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 2.80% 6.14% 8.50% 8.27% 7.36%
CAGR 39.96% 106.52% 169.67% 162.98% 137.40%
Buy and hold 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83%
Edge vs B&H -19.03% -15.69% -13.33% -13.56% -14.46%
Volatility (ann.) 12.09% 23.37% 27.73% 25.83% 24.13%
Sharpe 2.84 3.22 3.72 3.87 3.70
Sortino 2.83 3.20 3.73 3.93 3.77
Calmar 13.37 18.41 28.14 28.66 28.84
Omega 1.03 1.03 1.04 1.04 1.04
Max drawdown 2.99% 5.79% 6.03% 5.69% 4.76%
Ulcer index 0.0089 0.0211 0.0245 0.0198 0.0171
Drawdown episodes 61 72 65 64 58
Longest underwater (days) 6.6 8.2 8.2 9.5 15.0
Recovery factor 0.94 1.06 1.41 1.45 1.55
VaR 95% -0.700% -1.756% -1.953% -1.990% -1.954%
VaR 99% -0.797% -2.029% -2.913% -2.040% -2.036%
CVaR 95% -0.749% -1.893% -2.433% -2.015% -1.995%
Skew 0.73 0.78 0.86 0.92 0.66
Excess kurtosis 0.08 1.18 0.99 0.82 0.61
Best day 1.45% 3.91% 4.35% 4.11% 3.43%
Worst day -0.80% -2.03% -2.91% -2.04% -2.04%
Positive days 17 17 17 17 17
Negative days 13 13 13 13 13
Round trips 1 2 9 21 36
Winning / losing trades 1 / 0 2 / 0 7 / 2 17 / 4 25 / 11
Trades per day 0.03 0.07 0.30 0.70 1.20
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 77.78% 80.95% 69.44%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ 38.23 28.79 25.89
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ 10.92 6.78 11.39
Expectancy 4.6914 3.9944 7.9076 4.9013 2.6157
Average win 4.6914 3.9944 10.4400 6.2724 3.9179
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.9559 0.9258 0.3439
Average trade 4.6914 3.9944 7.9076 4.9013 2.6157
Max win streak 1 2 7 14 19
Max loss streak 0 0 2 2 6
Time in market 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Turnover 0.00 0.01 0.07 0.11 0.10
Realised P&L 4.69 7.99 71.17 102.93 94.17
Unrealised P&L 23.34 53.46 13.82 -20.18 -20.49
Fees paid 0.23 0.39 1.12 1.84 2.21
Fee drag 0.02% 0.04% 0.11% 0.18% 0.22%
Final equity 1028.46 1061.88 1085.42 1083.19 1074.12

Every number on this page is read from the run record that produced it — the audit pipeline writes the page and the record together, so the two cannot drift apart.

With the break-even guard WARN · 1 warn

Exits: no exit below average entry plus fees, stops included

The metric set the portfolio dashboard reports, computed per cell so a backtested configuration and a running one read on the same axes. Portfolio-level measures (concentration, pairwise correlation, beta against a benchmark) are omitted: one strategy on one pair has no cross-sectional structure to measure, and printing a null would imply the number exists.

1m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 5.07% 7.44% 13.31% 12.76% 12.49%
CAGR 82.53% 139.44% 357.17% 331.14% 318.51%
Buy and hold 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88%
Edge vs B&H -16.81% -14.44% -8.58% -9.12% -9.40%
Volatility (ann.) 16.99% 24.35% 29.25% 29.35% 28.69%
Sharpe 3.63 3.71 5.34 5.12 5.13
Sortino 3.56 3.59 5.20 5.02 5.02
Calmar 27.39 26.14 66.68 68.87 66.82
Omega 1.02 1.02 1.02 1.02 1.02
Max drawdown 3.01% 5.34% 5.36% 4.81% 4.77%
Ulcer index 0.0117 0.0185 0.0189 0.0160 0.0161
Drawdown episodes 134 137 162 164 161
Longest underwater (days) 6.6 8.4 8.2 5.1 8.2
Recovery factor 1.68 1.39 2.48 2.65 2.62
VaR 95% -1.271% -1.819% -1.832% -1.430% -1.412%
VaR 99% -1.737% -1.847% -1.961% -2.026% -1.990%
CVaR 95% -1.504% -1.833% -1.896% -1.728% -1.701%
Skew 0.65 0.72 0.88 0.85 0.92
Excess kurtosis 0.83 0.30 0.03 0.23 0.34
Best day 2.71% 3.68% 3.98% 4.03% 4.15%
Worst day -1.74% -1.85% -1.96% -2.03% -1.99%
Positive days 17 17 17 18 18
Negative days 13 13 13 12 12
Round trips 12 23 45 80 105
Winning / losing trades 12 / 0 23 / 0 45 / 0 80 / 0 105 / 0
Trades per day 0.40 0.77 1.50 2.67 3.50
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 5.8142 4.8411 3.7920 2.0315 1.5134
Average win 5.8142 4.8411 3.7920 2.0315 1.5134
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 5.8142 4.8411 3.7920 2.0315 1.5134
Max win streak 12 23 45 80 105
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Turnover 0.07 0.11 0.17 0.16 0.16
Realised P&L 69.77 111.35 170.64 162.52 158.91
Unrealised P&L -19.06 -36.94 -37.57 -34.90 -34.03
Fees paid 2.83 3.86 5.44 6.97 6.48
Fee drag 0.28% 0.39% 0.54% 0.70% 0.65%
Final equity 1050.79 1074.50 1133.16 1127.71 1124.96

3m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 8.82% 9.43% 12.79% 9.71% 9.58%
CAGR 179.62% 199.49% 332.34% 208.93% 204.36%
Buy and hold 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86%
Edge vs B&H -13.04% -12.43% -9.07% -12.15% -12.28%
Volatility (ann.) 12.62% 21.63% 27.86% 29.45% 27.30%
Sharpe 8.21 5.18 5.39 3.98 4.21
Sortino 8.81 5.20 5.43 3.95 4.18
Calmar 86.61 48.88 62.25 33.16 37.70
Omega 1.07 1.04 1.04 1.03 1.03
Max drawdown 2.07% 4.08% 5.34% 6.30% 5.42%
Ulcer index 0.0069 0.0167 0.0248 0.0285 0.0247
Drawdown episodes 81 85 90 92 88
Longest underwater (days) 7.9 7.6 9.5 18.0 9.5
Recovery factor 4.25 2.31 2.39 1.54 1.77
VaR 95% -0.672% -1.648% -1.680% -2.031% -1.329%
VaR 99% -1.232% -2.374% -2.670% -2.838% -2.988%
CVaR 95% -0.952% -2.011% -2.175% -2.434% -2.159%
Skew 2.22 1.71 1.45 0.93 0.56
Excess kurtosis 5.54 3.99 2.66 0.85 0.20
Best day 3.95% 5.82% 6.56% 4.94% 3.90%
Worst day -1.23% -2.37% -2.67% -2.84% -2.99%
Positive days 16 17 18 16 19
Negative days 13 12 11 13 10
Round trips 4 11 26 31 55
Winning / losing trades 4 / 0 11 / 0 26 / 0 31 / 0 55 / 0
Trades per day 0.13 0.37 0.87 1.03 1.83
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 21.1245 10.2003 6.1610 4.4662 2.3199
Average win 21.1245 10.2003 6.1610 4.4662 2.3199
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 21.1245 10.2003 6.1610 4.4662 2.3199
Max win streak 4 11 26 31 55
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Turnover 0.08 0.11 0.16 0.14 0.13
Realised P&L 84.50 112.20 160.19 138.45 127.60
Unrealised P&L 3.71 -17.83 -32.28 -41.29 -31.78
Fees paid 0.93 1.93 3.22 2.70 3.41
Fee drag 0.09% 0.19% 0.32% 0.27% 0.34%
Final equity 1088.53 1094.69 1128.22 1097.49 1096.14

5m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 2.80% 6.14% 8.86% 9.10% 8.54%
CAGR 39.96% 106.52% 180.92% 188.52% 170.95%
Buy and hold 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83%
Edge vs B&H -19.03% -15.69% -12.97% -12.73% -13.29%
Volatility (ann.) 12.09% 23.37% 27.82% 27.34% 25.83%
Sharpe 2.84 3.22 3.85 4.01 3.99
Sortino 2.83 3.20 3.88 4.04 4.05
Calmar 13.37 18.41 30.10 29.56 33.51
Omega 1.03 1.03 1.04 1.04 1.04
Max drawdown 2.99% 5.79% 6.01% 6.38% 5.10%
Ulcer index 0.0089 0.0211 0.0244 0.0227 0.0183
Drawdown episodes 61 72 66 66 65
Longest underwater (days) 6.6 8.2 8.2 9.5 8.2
Recovery factor 0.94 1.06 1.47 1.43 1.67
VaR 95% -0.700% -1.756% -1.946% -1.989% -1.950%
VaR 99% -0.797% -2.029% -2.903% -2.039% -2.032%
CVaR 95% -0.749% -1.893% -2.425% -2.014% -1.991%
Skew 0.73 0.78 0.84 1.08 0.72
Excess kurtosis 0.08 1.18 0.89 1.14 0.29
Best day 1.45% 3.91% 4.34% 4.44% 3.43%
Worst day -0.80% -2.03% -2.90% -2.04% -2.03%
Positive days 17 17 17 17 17
Negative days 13 13 13 13 13
Round trips 1 2 8 17 29
Winning / losing trades 1 / 0 2 / 0 8 / 0 17 / 0 29 / 0
Trades per day 0.03 0.07 0.27 0.57 0.97
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 4.6914 3.9944 9.3638 6.2990 3.5253
Average win 4.6914 3.9944 9.3638 6.2990 3.5253
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 4.6914 3.9944 9.3638 6.2990 3.5253
Max win streak 1 2 8 17 29
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Turnover 0.00 0.01 0.07 0.11 0.10
Realised P&L 4.69 7.99 74.91 107.08 102.23
Unrealised P&L 23.34 53.46 13.73 -16.05 -16.82
Fees paid 0.23 0.39 1.02 1.52 1.83
Fee drag 0.02% 0.04% 0.10% 0.15% 0.18%
Final equity 1028.46 1061.88 1089.08 1091.47 1085.85

Every number on this page is read from the run record that produced it — the audit pipeline writes the page and the record together, so the two cannot drift apart.

What the guard is, and what a better number under it means. The break-even guard refuses any exit below average entry plus fees. It cannot improve a strategy's judgement — it can only stop it selling at a loss, which means holding the position instead. Across the pack that turns a strategy that churned into one that buys and waits: trade counts collapse and time in market rises towards 100%. In a window where the asset itself rose, that reads as a much better return while being strictly less of a strategy.

So read the return next to round trips, time in market and edge vs buy and hold. The last of those is the one that matters: not one strategy in this matrix beat simply holding the asset, in either run.

Ignore the win rate and the profit factor under the guard. Both count closed trades only, and the guard closes nothing at a loss — in all 101 guarded runs the number of losing closed trades is exactly zero. So the win rate goes to 100% and the profit factor becomes undefined for arithmetic reasons, while the losses sit in the position that is still open. The unrealised row is where they went.