← ASkewMM_VWAP

ASkewMM_VWAP — metrics

Unguarded: PASSGuarded: PASSNeutralMMgunbot-quant

BTCUSDT · 2026-08-13 01:50 → 2026-09-12 01:50 UTC (30 days) · 0.03% fee + 2 bps slippage · 1,000 quote, one figure for every cell

The same document for both runs of the same measurement — first as the strategy ships, then with the break-even guard. Everything else about the two runs is identical.

As it ships PASS

Exits: the strategy's own exits, stops included

The metric set the portfolio dashboard reports, computed per cell so a backtested configuration and a running one read on the same axes. Portfolio-level measures (concentration, pairwise correlation, beta against a benchmark) are omitted: one strategy on one pair has no cross-sectional structure to measure, and printing a null would imply the number exists.

1m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 3.10% 2.90% 3.11% 5.97% 3.52%
CAGR 45.01% 41.56% 45.18% 102.47% 52.41%
Buy and hold 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88%
Edge vs B&H -18.78% -18.98% -18.77% -15.91% -18.36%
Volatility (ann.) 7.06% 7.95% 11.30% 16.97% 13.23%
Sharpe 5.30 4.41 3.36 4.24 3.25
Sortino 5.16 4.33 3.27 4.14 3.17
Calmar 37.44 31.29 19.64 29.20 24.11
Omega 1.02 1.02 1.02 1.02 1.02
Max drawdown 1.20% 1.33% 2.30% 3.51% 2.17%
Ulcer index 0.0055 0.0045 0.0064 0.0099 0.0083
Drawdown episodes 119 136 148 162 157
Longest underwater (days) 8.2 8.2 7.6 8.2 6.8
Recovery factor 2.58 2.18 1.35 1.70 1.62
VaR 95% -0.575% -0.461% -0.840% -1.180% -1.134%
VaR 99% -0.583% -0.948% -0.896% -1.314% -1.397%
CVaR 95% -0.579% -0.705% -0.868% -1.247% -1.266%
Skew 0.91 0.14 0.21 0.47 -0.36
Excess kurtosis 0.87 0.15 -0.45 -0.20 -0.23
Best day 1.19% 1.00% 1.19% 2.10% 1.19%
Worst day -0.58% -0.95% -0.90% -1.31% -1.40%
Positive days 17 18 18 18 20
Negative days 13 12 12 12 10
Round trips 11 23 30 33 26
Winning / losing trades 9 / 2 16 / 7 20 / 10 22 / 11 17 / 9
Trades per day 0.37 0.77 1.00 1.10 0.87
Win rate 81.82% 69.57% 66.67% 66.67% 65.38%
Profit factor 32.75 5.02 3.11 3.93 2.40
Payoff ratio 7.28 2.20 1.55 1.96 1.27
Expectancy 2.8960 1.3867 1.2198 2.0777 1.5943
Average win 3.6510 2.4889 2.6983 4.1813 4.1763
Average loss 0.5016 1.1327 1.7373 2.1295 3.2829
Average trade 2.8960 1.3867 1.2198 2.0777 1.5943
Max win streak 5 10 12 14 7
Max loss streak 2 3 4 5 2
Time in market 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Turnover 0.03 0.05 0.07 0.12 0.10
Realised P&L 31.86 31.89 36.59 68.56 41.45
Unrealised P&L -0.84 -2.91 -5.47 -8.86 -6.20
Fees paid 0.56 1.99 3.93 6.28 6.87
Fee drag 0.06% 0.20% 0.39% 0.63% 0.69%
Final equity 1031.10 1029.07 1031.21 1059.79 1035.34

3m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 3.34% 3.73% 3.96% 5.60% 2.86%
CAGR 49.13% 56.10% 60.44% 94.04% 40.99%
Buy and hold 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86%
Edge vs B&H -18.52% -18.13% -17.90% -16.26% -19.00%
Volatility (ann.) 6.68% 8.34% 12.45% 18.84% 14.72%
Sharpe 6.02 5.38 3.86 3.61 2.41
Sortino 6.01 5.43 3.84 3.60 2.38
Calmar 46.61 38.50 27.22 26.03 14.09
Omega 1.05 1.04 1.03 1.03 1.02
Max drawdown 1.05% 1.46% 2.22% 3.61% 2.91%
Ulcer index 0.0050 0.0038 0.0061 0.0116 0.0121
Drawdown episodes 82 102 102 92 91
Longest underwater (days) 8.2 8.2 8.2 9.5 17.7
Recovery factor 3.17 2.56 1.78 1.55 0.98
VaR 95% -0.347% -0.472% -0.565% -1.189% -0.801%
VaR 99% -0.568% -0.594% -0.799% -1.700% -1.669%
CVaR 95% -0.458% -0.533% -0.682% -1.445% -1.235%
Skew 1.12 0.68 0.45 0.40 -0.25
Excess kurtosis 1.02 0.24 -0.32 0.03 0.36
Best day 1.20% 1.01% 1.23% 2.13% 1.48%
Worst day -0.57% -0.59% -0.80% -1.70% -1.67%
Positive days 17 17 18 17 18
Negative days 12 12 11 12 11
Round trips 8 20 29 32 27
Winning / losing trades 7 / 1 18 / 2 19 / 10 19 / 13 18 / 9
Trades per day 0.27 0.67 0.97 1.07 0.90
Win rate 87.50% 90.00% 65.52% 59.38% 66.67%
Profit factor 2274.80 18.59 4.00 3.20 1.90
Payoff ratio 324.97 2.07 2.10 2.19 0.95
Expectancy 3.1449 1.9377 1.3629 1.7625 1.1037
Average win 3.5957 2.2754 2.7739 4.3167 3.4944
Average loss 0.0111 1.1017 1.3179 1.9706 3.6776
Average trade 3.1449 1.9377 1.3629 1.7625 1.1037
Max win streak 4 17 13 10 7
Max loss streak 1 2 5 5 3
Time in market 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Turnover 0.03 0.04 0.07 0.11 0.10
Realised P&L 25.16 38.75 39.53 56.40 29.80
Unrealised P&L 8.24 -1.46 0.10 -0.39 -1.16
Fees paid 0.35 1.68 3.72 5.97 6.94
Fee drag 0.04% 0.17% 0.37% 0.60% 0.69%
Final equity 1033.72 1037.61 1039.95 1056.33 1028.96

5m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 3.48% 3.70% 3.57% 6.19% 3.50%
CAGR 51.68% 55.50% 53.18% 107.62% 52.01%
Buy and hold 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83%
Edge vs B&H -18.35% -18.13% -18.26% -15.64% -18.33%
Volatility (ann.) 7.35% 7.10% 11.24% 17.00% 14.15%
Sharpe 5.70 6.25 3.85 4.38 3.03
Sortino 5.86 6.51 3.91 4.44 3.06
Calmar 44.91 51.76 26.69 31.33 23.78
Omega 1.06 1.06 1.04 1.05 1.03
Max drawdown 1.15% 1.07% 1.99% 3.44% 2.19%
Ulcer index 0.0053 0.0043 0.0067 0.0113 0.0078
Drawdown episodes 57 66 65 68 71
Longest underwater (days) 8.2 7.7 8.2 8.2 8.2
Recovery factor 3.03 3.45 1.79 1.80 1.60
VaR 95% -0.402% -0.402% -0.793% -1.166% -0.790%
VaR 99% -0.582% -0.489% -1.348% -2.178% -1.560%
CVaR 95% -0.492% -0.446% -1.070% -1.672% -1.175%
Skew 1.01 0.76 -0.31 0.04 -0.20
Excess kurtosis 0.81 0.33 0.80 0.68 0.81
Best day 1.20% 1.01% 1.20% 2.12% 1.38%
Worst day -0.58% -0.49% -1.35% -2.18% -1.56%
Positive days 18 19 20 18 17
Negative days 12 11 10 12 13
Round trips 6 9 14 18 20
Winning / losing trades 6 / 0 8 / 1 9 / 5 13 / 5 14 / 6
Trades per day 0.20 0.30 0.47 0.60 0.67
Win rate 100.00% 88.89% 64.29% 72.22% 70.00%
Profit factor ∞ 105.49 8.85 7.54 3.41
Payoff ratio ∞ 13.19 4.92 2.90 1.46
Expectancy 4.1179 4.1776 2.7444 3.6917 1.9872
Average win 4.1179 4.7447 4.8126 5.8931 4.0152
Average loss 0.0000 0.3598 0.9783 2.0319 2.7447
Average trade 4.1179 4.1776 2.7444 3.6917 1.9872
Max win streak 6 8 6 9 7
Max loss streak 0 1 2 2 2
Time in market 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Turnover 0.02 0.04 0.05 0.09 0.07
Realised P&L 24.71 37.60 38.42 66.45 39.74
Unrealised P&L 10.14 -0.63 -2.73 -4.54 -4.71
Fees paid 0.24 0.69 1.72 3.42 5.21
Fee drag 0.02% 0.07% 0.17% 0.34% 0.52%
Final equity 1035.29 1037.41 1036.12 1062.34 1035.47

Every number on this page is read from the run record that produced it — the audit pipeline writes the page and the record together, so the two cannot drift apart.

With the break-even guard PASS

Exits: no exit below average entry plus fees, stops included

The metric set the portfolio dashboard reports, computed per cell so a backtested configuration and a running one read on the same axes. Portfolio-level measures (concentration, pairwise correlation, beta against a benchmark) are omitted: one strategy on one pair has no cross-sectional structure to measure, and printing a null would imply the number exists.

1m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 3.20% 3.76% 4.78% 8.05% 5.40%
CAGR 46.78% 56.64% 76.39% 156.57% 89.61%
Buy and hold 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88%
Edge vs B&H -18.68% -18.12% -17.11% -13.83% -16.48%
Volatility (ann.) 7.14% 8.80% 12.39% 18.23% 16.15%
Sharpe 5.41 5.15 4.64 5.26 4.04
Sortino 5.27 5.09 4.56 5.13 3.96
Calmar 38.96 41.23 34.50 47.94 34.79
Omega 1.03 1.03 1.02 1.03 1.02
Max drawdown 1.20% 1.37% 2.21% 3.27% 2.58%
Ulcer index 0.0055 0.0044 0.0058 0.0086 0.0087
Drawdown episodes 123 148 172 187 198
Longest underwater (days) 8.2 8.2 5.1 5.7 6.5
Recovery factor 2.67 2.74 2.16 2.47 2.10
VaR 95% -0.574% -0.461% -0.837% -0.932% -1.272%
VaR 99% -0.582% -0.947% -0.891% -1.320% -1.389%
CVaR 95% -0.578% -0.704% -0.864% -1.126% -1.331%
Skew 0.88 0.17 0.12 0.43 0.48
Excess kurtosis 0.79 -0.07 -0.79 -0.17 1.50
Best day 1.19% 1.01% 1.19% 2.10% 2.52%
Worst day -0.58% -0.95% -0.89% -1.32% -1.39%
Positive days 17 18 18 20 21
Negative days 13 12 12 10 9
Round trips 11 23 29 31 19
Winning / losing trades 11 / 0 23 / 0 29 / 0 31 / 0 19 / 0
Trades per day 0.37 0.77 0.97 1.03 0.63
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 2.9899 1.7605 1.8363 3.2681 3.6628
Average win 2.9899 1.7605 1.8363 3.2681 3.6628
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 2.9899 1.7605 1.8363 3.2681 3.6628
Max win streak 11 23 29 31 19
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 99.86% 100.00%
Turnover 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.10 0.07
Realised P&L 32.89 40.49 53.25 101.31 69.59
Unrealised P&L -0.84 -2.91 -5.50 -20.78 -15.59
Fees paid 0.56 1.99 3.81 6.29 5.14
Fee drag 0.06% 0.20% 0.38% 0.63% 0.51%
Final equity 1032.14 1037.67 1047.85 1080.62 1054.09

3m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 3.34% 3.95% 5.25% 8.00% 4.21%
CAGR 49.18% 60.25% 86.46% 155.14% 65.20%
Buy and hold 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86%
Edge vs B&H -18.52% -17.91% -16.61% -13.86% -17.65%
Volatility (ann.) 6.68% 8.47% 12.99% 19.99% 17.16%
Sharpe 6.02 5.61 4.86 4.79 3.01
Sortino 6.02 5.70 4.92 4.85 3.02
Calmar 46.66 41.35 38.30 42.84 22.81
Omega 1.05 1.05 1.04 1.04 1.02
Max drawdown 1.05% 1.46% 2.26% 3.62% 2.86%
Ulcer index 0.0050 0.0038 0.0059 0.0105 0.0111
Drawdown episodes 82 102 112 106 103
Longest underwater (days) 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.4
Recovery factor 3.17 2.71 2.33 2.21 1.47
VaR 95% -0.347% -0.472% -0.564% -1.177% -1.253%
VaR 99% -0.568% -0.594% -0.798% -1.697% -1.653%
CVaR 95% -0.458% -0.533% -0.681% -1.437% -1.453%
Skew 1.11 0.68 0.41 0.35 0.52
Excess kurtosis 1.02 0.24 -0.50 -0.08 1.02
Best day 1.20% 1.01% 1.23% 2.13% 2.61%
Worst day -0.57% -0.59% -0.80% -1.70% -1.65%
Positive days 17 17 18 18 18
Negative days 12 12 11 11 11
Round trips 8 19 26 29 16
Winning / losing trades 8 / 0 19 / 0 26 / 0 29 / 0 16 / 0
Trades per day 0.27 0.63 0.87 0.97 0.53
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 3.1480 2.2060 2.1398 2.9866 3.8819
Average win 3.1480 2.2060 2.1398 2.9866 3.8819
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 3.1480 2.2060 2.1398 2.9866 3.8819
Max win streak 8 19 26 29 16
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Turnover 0.03 0.04 0.06 0.09 0.06
Realised P&L 25.18 41.91 55.63 86.61 62.11
Unrealised P&L 8.24 -2.38 -3.08 -6.57 -19.98
Fees paid 0.35 1.59 3.32 5.41 4.00
Fee drag 0.04% 0.16% 0.33% 0.54% 0.40%
Final equity 1033.75 1039.85 1052.88 1080.36 1042.46

5m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 3.48% 3.76% 4.23% 7.57% 5.48%
CAGR 51.68% 56.62% 65.55% 142.93% 91.36%
Buy and hold 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83%
Edge vs B&H -18.35% -18.07% -17.60% -14.26% -16.35%
Volatility (ann.) 7.35% 7.12% 11.51% 17.40% 15.92%
Sharpe 5.70 6.33 4.44 5.19 4.16
Sortino 5.86 6.60 4.56 5.34 4.29
Calmar 44.91 52.81 32.98 42.53 33.87
Omega 1.06 1.06 1.05 1.05 1.04
Max drawdown 1.15% 1.07% 1.99% 3.36% 2.70%
Ulcer index 0.0053 0.0043 0.0066 0.0110 0.0090
Drawdown episodes 57 68 72 75 80
Longest underwater (days) 8.2 7.7 8.2 8.2 8.4
Recovery factor 3.03 3.50 2.13 2.25 2.03
VaR 95% -0.402% -0.402% -0.791% -1.161% -1.232%
VaR 99% -0.582% -0.489% -1.346% -2.212% -1.553%
CVaR 95% -0.492% -0.446% -1.068% -1.687% -1.392%
Skew 1.01 0.74 -0.23 0.03 0.66
Excess kurtosis 0.81 0.26 0.44 0.33 1.67
Best day 1.20% 1.01% 1.20% 2.12% 2.75%
Worst day -0.58% -0.49% -1.35% -2.21% -1.55%
Positive days 18 19 20 19 18
Negative days 12 11 10 11 12
Round trips 6 9 14 18 14
Winning / losing trades 6 / 0 9 / 0 14 / 0 18 / 0 14 / 0
Trades per day 0.20 0.30 0.47 0.60 0.47
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 4.1179 4.2457 3.2183 4.4583 4.3535
Average win 4.1179 4.2457 3.2183 4.4583 4.3535
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 4.1179 4.2457 3.2183 4.4583 4.3535
Max win streak 6 9 14 18 14
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Turnover 0.02 0.04 0.05 0.08 0.06
Realised P&L 24.71 38.21 45.06 80.25 60.95
Unrealised P&L 10.14 -0.63 -2.73 -4.54 -6.14
Fees paid 0.24 0.69 1.72 3.43 3.75
Fee drag 0.02% 0.07% 0.17% 0.34% 0.37%
Final equity 1035.29 1038.02 1042.76 1076.15 1055.25

Every number on this page is read from the run record that produced it — the audit pipeline writes the page and the record together, so the two cannot drift apart.

What the guard is, and what a better number under it means. The break-even guard refuses any exit below average entry plus fees. It cannot improve a strategy's judgement — it can only stop it selling at a loss, which means holding the position instead. Across the pack that turns a strategy that churned into one that buys and waits: trade counts collapse and time in market rises towards 100%. In a window where the asset itself rose, that reads as a much better return while being strictly less of a strategy.

So read the return next to round trips, time in market and edge vs buy and hold. The last of those is the one that matters: not one strategy in this matrix beat simply holding the asset, in either run.

Ignore the win rate and the profit factor under the guard. Both count closed trades only, and the guard closes nothing at a loss — in all 101 guarded runs the number of losing closed trades is exactly zero. So the win rate goes to 100% and the profit factor becomes undefined for arithmetic reasons, while the losses sit in the position that is still open. The unrealised row is where they went.