← ATRChannel_MM

ATRChannel_MM — metrics

Unguarded: PASSGuarded: WARN · 1 warnMM-DCAgunbot-quant

BTCUSDT · 2026-08-13 01:50 → 2026-09-12 01:50 UTC (30 days) · 0.03% fee + 2 bps slippage · 122 quote, one figure for every cell

The same document for both runs of the same measurement — first as the strategy ships, then with the break-even guard. Everything else about the two runs is identical.

As it ships PASS

Exits: the strategy's own exits, stops included

The metric set the portfolio dashboard reports, computed per cell so a backtested configuration and a running one read on the same axes. Portfolio-level measures (concentration, pairwise correlation, beta against a benchmark) are omitted: one strategy on one pair has no cross-sectional structure to measure, and printing a null would imply the number exists.

1m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return -7.91% -19.25% -42.64% -70.98% -59.07%
CAGR -63.32% -92.58% -99.88% -100.00% -100.00%
Buy and hold 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88%
Edge vs B&H -29.79% -41.13% -64.53% -92.86% -80.95%
Volatility (ann.) 4.28% 7.88% 14.83% 20.30% 19.67%
Sharpe -23.42 -32.96 -45.52 -74.04 -55.14
Sortino -20.30 -28.89 -40.63 -64.87 -47.91
Calmar -7.89 -4.80 -2.34 -1.41 -1.69
Omega 0.69 0.69 0.68 0.60 0.61
Max drawdown 8.02% 19.27% 42.64% 70.99% 59.07%
Ulcer index 0.0444 0.1066 0.2395 0.4839 0.4800
Drawdown episodes 1 1 2 1 1
Longest underwater (days) 29.9 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0
Recovery factor -0.99 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00
VaR 95% -0.620% -1.459% -3.537% -7.275% -6.387%
VaR 99% -0.920% -1.891% -4.233% -8.647% -9.239%
CVaR 95% -0.770% -1.675% -3.885% -7.961% -7.813%
Skew -0.40 -0.43 -0.11 0.29 -0.22
Excess kurtosis 0.75 1.02 2.16 -0.14 -1.34
Best day 0.13% 0.23% 0.67% 0.00% 0.00%
Worst day -0.92% -1.89% -4.23% -8.65% -9.24%
Positive days 5 1 1 1 5
Negative days 25 29 29 29 25
Round trips 380 643 1,025 1,477 946
Winning / losing trades 79 / 301 136 / 507 222 / 803 178 / 1,299 129 / 817
Trades per day 12.67 21.43 34.17 49.23 31.53
Win rate 20.79% 21.15% 21.66% 12.05% 13.64%
Profit factor 0.14 0.15 0.13 0.07 0.07
Payoff ratio 0.55 0.55 0.47 0.49 0.46
Expectancy -0.0254 -0.0365 -0.0508 -0.0586 -0.0762
Average win 0.0206 0.0300 0.0353 0.0352 0.0441
Average loss 0.0375 0.0544 0.0745 0.0715 0.0952
Average trade -0.0254 -0.0365 -0.0508 -0.0586 -0.0762
Max win streak 5 7 11 5 7
Max loss streak 37 52 111 121 121
Time in market 12.85% 21.37% 31.22% 36.77% 23.56%
Turnover 0.11 0.26 0.55 0.81 0.68
Realised P&L -9.65 -23.48 -52.03 -86.59 -72.06
Unrealised P&L -0.00 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00
Fees paid 6.22 14.79 33.21 54.38 45.41
Fee drag 5.10% 12.12% 27.22% 44.58% 37.22%
Final equity 112.35 98.52 69.97 35.41 49.94

3m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return -0.68% -2.96% -8.53% -25.33% -37.56%
CAGR -7.98% -30.60% -66.19% -97.14% -99.68%
Buy and hold 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86%
Edge vs B&H -22.54% -24.82% -30.39% -47.19% -59.42%
Volatility (ann.) 3.01% 6.19% 12.96% 18.64% 23.14%
Sharpe -2.75 -5.87 -8.30 -18.97 -24.65
Sortino -2.63 -5.55 -7.94 -17.90 -22.75
Calmar -8.50 -9.53 -7.59 -3.81 -2.64
Omega 0.92 0.88 0.87 0.80 0.76
Max drawdown 0.94% 3.21% 8.72% 25.48% 37.69%
Ulcer index 0.0059 0.0197 0.0434 0.1372 0.2115
Drawdown episodes 1 1 2 1 1
Longest underwater (days) 29.7 29.7 29.8 30.0 30.0
Recovery factor -0.73 -0.92 -0.98 -0.99 -1.00
VaR 95% -0.234% -0.489% -1.016% -2.096% -3.458%
VaR 99% -0.265% -0.636% -1.696% -3.097% -3.917%
CVaR 95% -0.250% -0.562% -1.356% -2.596% -3.688%
Skew -0.49 -0.28 -0.39 -0.04 -0.12
Excess kurtosis -0.21 -0.42 0.48 0.75 0.44
Best day 0.17% 0.28% 0.74% 0.93% 0.66%
Worst day -0.26% -0.64% -1.70% -3.10% -3.92%
Positive days 15 9 8 4 2
Negative days 14 20 21 25 27
Round trips 84 172 291 531 564
Winning / losing trades 39 / 45 78 / 94 135 / 156 186 / 345 179 / 385
Trades per day 2.80 5.73 9.70 17.70 18.80
Win rate 46.43% 45.35% 46.39% 35.03% 31.74%
Profit factor 0.65 0.50 0.46 0.30 0.25
Payoff ratio 0.75 0.61 0.53 0.56 0.53
Expectancy -0.0099 -0.0210 -0.0357 -0.0582 -0.0813
Average win 0.0391 0.0468 0.0644 0.0713 0.0841
Average loss 0.0523 0.0772 0.1224 0.1280 0.1581
Average trade -0.0099 -0.0210 -0.0357 -0.0582 -0.0813
Max win streak 7 11 12 7 6
Max loss streak 12 29 27 35 39
Time in market 7.47% 15.50% 26.32% 39.39% 41.09%
Turnover 0.03 0.09 0.23 0.47 0.62
Realised P&L -0.83 -3.61 -10.40 -30.91 -45.83
Unrealised P&L 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01
Fees paid 1.44 4.21 10.91 24.35 31.77
Fee drag 1.18% 3.45% 8.94% 19.96% 26.04%
Final equity 121.17 118.39 111.60 91.10 76.17

5m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return -0.14% -0.52% -1.28% -11.91% -17.78%
CAGR -1.66% -6.15% -14.47% -78.61% -90.77%
Buy and hold 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83%
Edge vs B&H -21.97% -22.35% -23.11% -33.73% -39.61%
Volatility (ann.) 2.58% 5.29% 11.75% 19.43% 20.75%
Sharpe -0.64 -1.17 -1.27 -7.84 -11.38
Sortino -0.62 -1.16 -1.25 -7.56 -10.83
Calmar -3.01 -6.38 -4.72 -6.50 -5.07
Omega 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.88 0.85
Max drawdown 0.55% 0.96% 3.06% 12.10% 17.89%
Ulcer index 0.0024 0.0055 0.0126 0.0568 0.0846
Drawdown episodes 28 13 68 1 1
Longest underwater (days) 14.4 14.5 14.5 30.0 30.0
Recovery factor -0.25 -0.54 -0.42 -0.98 -0.99
VaR 95% -0.153% -0.215% -0.442% -1.528% -1.948%
VaR 99% -0.190% -0.254% -0.518% -1.686% -2.045%
CVaR 95% -0.171% -0.234% -0.480% -1.607% -1.997%
Skew -0.71 0.38 0.79 -0.06 0.21
Excess kurtosis 1.11 -0.47 0.17 -0.60 -0.87
Best day 0.12% 0.30% 0.86% 0.89% 1.17%
Worst day -0.19% -0.25% -0.52% -1.69% -2.05%
Positive days 18 13 12 10 9
Negative days 12 17 18 20 21
Round trips 42 83 178 308 322
Winning / losing trades 22 / 20 48 / 35 104 / 74 142 / 166 139 / 183
Trades per day 1.40 2.77 5.93 10.27 10.73
Win rate 52.38% 57.83% 58.43% 46.10% 43.17%
Profit factor 0.85 0.82 0.85 0.49 0.46
Payoff ratio 0.77 0.60 0.61 0.57 0.60
Expectancy -0.0040 -0.0076 -0.0087 -0.0473 -0.0675
Average win 0.0426 0.0616 0.0871 0.0980 0.1317
Average loss 0.0553 0.1025 0.1435 0.1715 0.2188
Average trade -0.0040 -0.0076 -0.0087 -0.0473 -0.0675
Max win streak 6 11 14 10 11
Max loss streak 9 9 9 23 23
Time in market 5.90% 12.00% 23.69% 37.60% 39.57%
Turnover 0.02 0.05 0.16 0.35 0.48
Realised P&L -0.17 -0.63 -1.56 -14.56 -21.74
Unrealised P&L 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.05
Fees paid 0.75 2.14 6.87 15.68 19.32
Fee drag 0.62% 1.75% 5.63% 12.86% 15.84%
Final equity 121.83 121.37 120.44 107.44 100.26

Every number on this page is read from the run record that produced it — the audit pipeline writes the page and the record together, so the two cannot drift apart.

With the break-even guard WARN · 1 warn

Exits: no exit below average entry plus fees, stops included

The metric set the portfolio dashboard reports, computed per cell so a backtested configuration and a running one read on the same axes. Portfolio-level measures (concentration, pairwise correlation, beta against a benchmark) are omitted: one strategy on one pair has no cross-sectional structure to measure, and printing a null would imply the number exists.

1m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 0.32% 0.06% 1.20% 0.23% 0.91%
CAGR 3.92% 0.69% 15.58% 2.80% 11.71%
Buy and hold 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88%
Edge vs B&H -21.56% -21.82% -20.68% -21.65% -20.97%
Volatility (ann.) 7.45% 14.94% 28.31% 32.97% 27.74%
Sharpe 0.55 0.12 0.65 0.25 0.54
Sortino 0.52 0.12 0.63 0.24 0.51
Calmar 3.64 0.26 3.18 0.47 2.32
Omega 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
Max drawdown 1.08% 2.63% 4.90% 5.97% 5.05%
Ulcer index 0.0041 0.0098 0.0183 0.0247 0.0214
Drawdown episodes 276 300 354 323 239
Longest underwater (days) 6.5 6.5 6.6 8.2 8.2
Recovery factor 0.29 0.02 0.24 0.04 0.18
VaR 95% -0.430% -1.056% -1.972% -2.096% -1.680%
VaR 99% -0.695% -1.728% -3.129% -3.436% -2.843%
CVaR 95% -0.563% -1.392% -2.551% -2.766% -2.262%
Skew 0.23 0.40 0.41 0.24 0.26
Excess kurtosis 1.38 2.06 1.59 0.67 0.62
Best day 0.84% 2.15% 4.05% 4.01% 3.29%
Worst day -0.69% -1.73% -3.13% -3.44% -2.84%
Positive days 18 16 16 15 15
Negative days 12 14 14 15 15
Round trips 60 73 130 135 100
Winning / losing trades 60 / 0 73 / 0 130 / 0 135 / 0 100 / 0
Trades per day 2.00 2.43 4.33 4.50 3.33
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 0.0204 0.0296 0.0407 0.0484 0.0649
Average win 0.0204 0.0296 0.0407 0.0484 0.0649
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 0.0204 0.0296 0.0407 0.0484 0.0649
Max win streak 60 73 130 135 100
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 74.82% 85.61% 88.80% 93.88% 95.64%
Turnover 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.05 0.05
Realised P&L 1.22 2.16 5.30 6.54 6.49
Unrealised P&L -0.84 -2.09 -3.84 -6.26 -5.37
Fees paid 1.13 1.91 5.17 7.10 6.03
Fee drag 0.93% 1.57% 4.24% 5.82% 4.95%
Final equity 122.39 122.07 123.46 122.28 123.12

3m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 1.15% 2.60% 5.15% 1.57% 1.71%
CAGR 14.90% 36.60% 84.28% 20.82% 22.97%
Buy and hold 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86%
Edge vs B&H -20.71% -19.26% -16.71% -20.29% -20.15%
Volatility (ann.) 6.74% 11.27% 23.58% 30.17% 26.22%
Sharpe 2.09 2.83 2.71 0.78 0.92
Sortino 2.11 2.83 2.73 0.76 0.89
Calmar 9.63 15.13 18.24 3.60 4.82
Omega 1.02 1.03 1.02 1.01 1.01
Max drawdown 1.55% 2.42% 4.62% 5.78% 4.76%
Ulcer index 0.0040 0.0069 0.0139 0.0227 0.0199
Drawdown episodes 236 306 312 227 164
Longest underwater (days) 6.8 6.9 6.8 8.2 8.2
Recovery factor 0.74 1.07 1.12 0.27 0.36
VaR 95% -0.751% -1.041% -1.945% -2.035% -1.642%
VaR 99% -0.894% -1.517% -2.942% -3.172% -2.644%
CVaR 95% -0.822% -1.279% -2.443% -2.604% -2.143%
Skew 0.13 -0.03 0.16 0.11 0.24
Excess kurtosis 4.92 4.48 3.42 0.41 0.64
Best day 1.14% 1.81% 3.67% 3.53% 3.16%
Worst day -0.89% -1.52% -2.94% -3.17% -2.64%
Positive days 21 21 19 16 15
Negative days 8 8 10 13 14
Round trips 48 85 103 86 64
Winning / losing trades 48 / 0 85 / 0 103 / 0 86 / 0 64 / 0
Trades per day 1.60 2.83 3.43 2.87 2.13
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 0.0292 0.0373 0.0610 0.0954 0.1135
Average win 0.0292 0.0373 0.0610 0.0954 0.1135
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 0.0292 0.0373 0.0610 0.0954 0.1135
Max win streak 48 85 103 86 64
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 44.13% 56.06% 71.49% 87.85% 91.11%
Turnover 0.01 0.03 0.05 0.07 0.06
Realised P&L 1.40 3.17 6.29 8.20 7.26
Unrealised P&L 0.00 0.00 0.00 -6.29 -5.17
Fees paid 0.86 2.23 4.52 4.84 3.87
Fee drag 0.70% 1.83% 3.70% 3.97% 3.18%
Final equity 123.40 125.17 128.29 123.91 124.09

5m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 0.86% 2.25% 6.97% 6.06% 1.46%
CAGR 11.03% 31.06% 127.11% 104.64% 19.25%
Buy and hold 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83%
Edge vs B&H -20.97% -19.58% -14.85% -15.77% -20.37%
Volatility (ann.) 4.28% 10.55% 21.00% 28.95% 25.82%
Sharpe 2.47 2.62 4.01 2.62 0.81
Sortino 2.51 2.68 4.18 2.68 0.80
Calmar 11.84 13.77 31.26 21.77 4.07
Omega 1.04 1.04 1.05 1.03 1.01
Max drawdown 0.93% 2.26% 4.07% 4.81% 4.73%
Ulcer index 0.0026 0.0063 0.0121 0.0162 0.0188
Drawdown episodes 214 227 308 221 116
Longest underwater (days) 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.6 8.2
Recovery factor 0.93 1.00 1.72 1.26 0.31
VaR 95% -0.417% -1.019% -1.872% -2.004% -1.609%
VaR 99% -0.546% -1.396% -2.498% -3.138% -2.638%
CVaR 95% -0.482% -1.207% -2.185% -2.571% -2.123%
Skew 0.44 0.30 0.39 0.26 0.19
Excess kurtosis 6.06 5.54 2.49 1.78 0.86
Best day 0.75% 1.84% 3.44% 4.14% 3.16%
Worst day -0.55% -1.40% -2.50% -3.14% -2.64%
Positive days 25 23 22 21 18
Negative days 5 7 8 9 12
Round trips 28 53 90 87 46
Winning / losing trades 28 / 0 53 / 0 90 / 0 87 / 0 46 / 0
Trades per day 0.93 1.77 3.00 2.90 1.53
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 0.0376 0.0518 0.0945 0.1010 0.1495
Average win 0.0376 0.0518 0.0945 0.1010 0.1495
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 0.0376 0.0518 0.0945 0.1010 0.1495
Max win streak 28 53 90 87 46
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 32.48% 46.63% 59.25% 80.21% 88.55%
Turnover 0.01 0.02 0.07 0.07 0.06
Realised P&L 1.05 2.74 8.51 8.79 6.88
Unrealised P&L 0.00 0.00 0.00 -1.40 -5.10
Fees paid 0.52 1.38 3.64 4.92 2.79
Fee drag 0.43% 1.13% 2.99% 4.03% 2.29%
Final equity 123.05 124.74 130.51 129.36 123.73

Every number on this page is read from the run record that produced it — the audit pipeline writes the page and the record together, so the two cannot drift apart.

What the guard is, and what a better number under it means. The break-even guard refuses any exit below average entry plus fees. It cannot improve a strategy's judgement — it can only stop it selling at a loss, which means holding the position instead. Across the pack that turns a strategy that churned into one that buys and waits: trade counts collapse and time in market rises towards 100%. In a window where the asset itself rose, that reads as a much better return while being strictly less of a strategy.

So read the return next to round trips, time in market and edge vs buy and hold. The last of those is the one that matters: not one strategy in this matrix beat simply holding the asset, in either run.

Ignore the win rate and the profit factor under the guard. Both count closed trades only, and the guard closes nothing at a loss — in all 101 guarded runs the number of losing closed trades is exactly zero. So the win rate goes to 100% and the profit factor becomes undefined for arithmetic reasons, while the losses sit in the position that is still open. The unrealised row is where they went.