← BBSqueeze_MM

BBSqueeze_MM — metrics

Unguarded: PASSGuarded: WARN · 1 warnMM-DCAgunbot-quant

BTCUSDT · 2026-08-13 01:50 → 2026-09-12 01:50 UTC (30 days) · 0.03% fee + 2 bps slippage · 122 quote, one figure for every cell

The same document for both runs of the same measurement — first as the strategy ships, then with the break-even guard. Everything else about the two runs is identical.

As it ships PASS

Exits: the strategy's own exits, stops included

The metric set the portfolio dashboard reports, computed per cell so a backtested configuration and a running one read on the same axes. Portfolio-level measures (concentration, pairwise correlation, beta against a benchmark) are omitted: one strategy on one pair has no cross-sectional structure to measure, and printing a null would imply the number exists.

1m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return -1.20% -7.24% -40.03% -70.93% -59.04%
CAGR -13.69% -59.95% -99.80% -100.00% -100.00%
Buy and hold 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88%
Edge vs B&H -23.08% -29.13% -61.91% -92.81% -80.92%
Volatility (ann.) 1.49% 5.33% 14.76% 20.32% 19.72%
Sharpe -9.88 -17.13 -42.07 -73.87 -54.96
Sortino -7.46 -14.44 -37.62 -64.74 -47.71
Calmar -10.14 -7.98 -2.49 -1.41 -1.69
Omega 0.44 0.69 0.68 0.59 0.61
Max drawdown 1.35% 7.52% 40.03% 70.97% 59.05%
Ulcer index 0.0104 0.0465 0.2272 0.4890 0.4842
Drawdown episodes 1 1 1 1 1
Longest underwater (days) 27.4 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0
Recovery factor -0.89 -0.96 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00
VaR 95% -0.426% -0.959% -3.336% -7.402% -7.207%
VaR 99% -0.439% -1.013% -4.167% -8.902% -8.278%
CVaR 95% -0.433% -0.986% -3.752% -8.152% -7.742%
Skew -2.39 -1.37 -0.52 0.28 -0.15
Excess kurtosis 4.41 1.07 1.45 0.07 -1.68
Best day 0.06% 0.12% 0.44% 0.00% 0.00%
Worst day -0.44% -1.01% -4.17% -8.90% -8.28%
Positive days 14 2 1 1 6
Negative days 14 28 29 29 24
Round trips 50 242 994 1,484 939
Winning / losing trades 4 / 46 58 / 184 205 / 789 183 / 1,301 124 / 815
Trades per day 1.67 8.07 33.13 49.47 31.30
Win rate 8.00% 23.97% 20.62% 12.33% 13.21%
Profit factor 0.11 0.17 0.13 0.07 0.08
Payoff ratio 1.23 0.54 0.49 0.51 0.50
Expectancy -0.0294 -0.0365 -0.0491 -0.0583 -0.0767
Average win 0.0438 0.0312 0.0346 0.0363 0.0476
Average loss 0.0357 0.0579 0.0709 0.0716 0.0956
Average trade -0.0294 -0.0365 -0.0491 -0.0583 -0.0767
Max win streak 2 5 10 8 9
Max loss streak 42 80 88 118 115
Time in market 0.58% 6.44% 27.95% 35.46% 22.41%
Turnover 0.01 0.10 0.52 0.82 0.69
Realised P&L -1.47 -8.84 -48.84 -86.53 -72.02
Unrealised P&L 0.00 0.00 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00
Fees paid 0.75 5.24 32.12 54.66 45.18
Fee drag 0.61% 4.29% 26.33% 44.80% 37.03%
Final equity 120.53 113.16 73.16 35.47 49.98

3m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return -0.19% -0.16% -9.27% -31.28% -42.45%
CAGR -2.23% -1.95% -69.40% -98.96% -99.88%
Buy and hold 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86%
Edge vs B&H -22.05% -22.02% -31.13% -53.14% -64.31%
Volatility (ann.) 0.78% 3.63% 13.68% 19.28% 23.66%
Sharpe -2.90 -0.52 -8.58 -23.57 -28.30
Sortino -2.49 -0.52 -8.23 -21.97 -25.98
Calmar -7.55 -2.38 -7.31 -3.16 -2.35
Omega 0.74 0.98 0.88 0.76 0.73
Max drawdown 0.30% 0.82% 9.50% 31.35% 42.51%
Ulcer index 0.0014 0.0036 0.0483 0.1720 0.2433
Drawdown episodes 1 26 2 2 1
Longest underwater (days) 26.7 14.0 30.0 30.0 30.0
Recovery factor -0.63 -0.20 -0.98 -1.00 -1.00
VaR 95% -0.086% -0.149% -1.024% -2.630% -3.752%
VaR 99% -0.149% -0.266% -1.895% -3.060% -4.440%
CVaR 95% -0.118% -0.207% -1.459% -2.845% -4.096%
Skew -3.60 -0.03 -0.69 -0.19 -0.17
Excess kurtosis 12.12 0.43 1.52 0.41 0.85
Best day 0.00% 0.20% 0.61% 0.45% 0.55%
Worst day -0.15% -0.27% -1.89% -3.06% -4.44%
Positive days 13 13 7 1 2
Negative days 13 16 22 28 27
Round trips 5 70 351 573 606
Winning / losing trades 1 / 4 35 / 35 163 / 188 172 / 401 164 / 442
Trades per day 0.17 2.33 11.70 19.10 20.20
Win rate 20.00% 50.00% 46.44% 30.02% 27.06%
Profit factor 0.21 0.90 0.47 0.22 0.19
Payoff ratio 0.84 0.90 0.54 0.52 0.52
Expectancy -0.0452 -0.0028 -0.0322 -0.0666 -0.0855
Average win 0.0603 0.0529 0.0610 0.0635 0.0762
Average loss 0.0716 0.0585 0.1131 0.1224 0.1455
Average trade -0.0452 -0.0028 -0.0322 -0.0666 -0.0855
Max win streak 1 8 11 8 7
Max loss streak 4 10 24 38 39
Time in market 0.49% 5.42% 28.74% 40.54% 41.99%
Turnover 0.00 0.03 0.26 0.49 0.63
Realised P&L -0.23 -0.20 -11.31 -38.17 -51.80
Unrealised P&L -0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01
Fees paid 0.07 1.58 12.50 25.94 33.13
Fee drag 0.06% 1.30% 10.25% 21.26% 27.15%
Final equity 121.77 121.80 110.69 83.84 70.21

5m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return -0.15% 0.32% -1.31% -14.44% -23.72%
CAGR -1.79% 4.02% -14.78% -85.01% -96.29%
Buy and hold 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83%
Edge vs B&H -21.98% -21.51% -23.13% -36.27% -45.55%
Volatility (ann.) 0.66% 3.63% 13.07% 19.77% 21.89%
Sharpe -2.74 1.10 -1.16 -9.50 -14.94
Sortino -2.20 1.07 -1.15 -9.09 -14.06
Calmar -9.71 7.65 -4.40 -5.85 -4.04
Omega 0.68 1.05 0.98 0.87 0.81
Max drawdown 0.18% 0.52% 3.36% 14.54% 23.83%
Ulcer index 0.0008 0.0012 0.0127 0.0672 0.1172
Drawdown episodes 1 61 86 2 2
Longest underwater (days) 26.7 10.8 14.5 29.7 29.8
Recovery factor -0.80 0.62 -0.39 -0.99 -1.00
VaR 95% -0.018% -0.133% -0.470% -1.602% -2.244%
VaR 99% -0.130% -0.229% -0.649% -1.781% -2.413%
CVaR 95% -0.074% -0.181% -0.559% -1.691% -2.329%
Skew -4.81 0.73 0.18 0.14 0.05
Excess kurtosis 22.25 2.73 -1.03 -0.56 -1.02
Best day 0.00% 0.35% 0.67% 1.04% 0.67%
Worst day -0.13% -0.23% -0.65% -1.78% -2.41%
Positive days 14 17 12 7 6
Negative days 13 12 18 23 24
Round trips 2 40 201 355 380
Winning / losing trades 0 / 2 21 / 19 117 / 84 157 / 198 143 / 237
Trades per day 0.07 1.33 6.70 11.83 12.67
Win rate 0.00% 52.50% 58.21% 44.23% 37.63%
Profit factor 0.00 1.35 0.85 0.45 0.37
Payoff ratio 0.00 1.23 0.61 0.57 0.61
Expectancy -0.0903 0.0099 -0.0079 -0.0496 -0.0762
Average win 0.0000 0.0719 0.0795 0.0912 0.1182
Average loss 0.0903 0.0587 0.1297 0.1613 0.1934
Average trade -0.0903 0.0099 -0.0079 -0.0496 -0.0762
Max win streak 0 5 13 11 6
Max loss streak 2 4 10 26 25
Time in market 0.42% 4.71% 25.95% 39.50% 41.43%
Turnover 0.00 0.02 0.17 0.38 0.51
Realised P&L -0.18 0.40 -1.59 -17.62 -28.94
Unrealised P&L -0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.00 -0.00
Fees paid 0.03 0.93 7.81 17.56 22.72
Fee drag 0.02% 0.77% 6.40% 14.39% 18.62%
Final equity 121.82 122.40 120.41 104.38 93.06

Every number on this page is read from the run record that produced it — the audit pipeline writes the page and the record together, so the two cannot drift apart.

With the break-even guard WARN · 1 warn

Exits: no exit below average entry plus fees, stops included

The metric set the portfolio dashboard reports, computed per cell so a backtested configuration and a running one read on the same axes. Portfolio-level measures (concentration, pairwise correlation, beta against a benchmark) are omitted: one strategy on one pair has no cross-sectional structure to measure, and printing a null would imply the number exists.

1m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 0.14% -0.41% 1.28% 0.76% 1.66%
CAGR 1.68% -4.88% 16.77% 9.62% 22.12%
Buy and hold 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88%
Edge vs B&H -21.74% -22.29% -20.60% -21.12% -20.23%
Volatility (ann.) 2.94% 13.12% 28.24% 32.82% 27.55%
Sharpe 0.58 -0.32 0.69 0.44 0.86
Sortino 0.51 -0.30 0.66 0.42 0.83
Calmar 2.48 -2.36 3.43 1.62 4.54
Omega 1.01 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
Max drawdown 0.68% 2.07% 4.89% 5.92% 4.87%
Ulcer index 0.0010 0.0058 0.0180 0.0245 0.0208
Drawdown episodes 130 330 368 305 204
Longest underwater (days) 6.6 5.1 6.6 8.2 8.2
Recovery factor 0.20 -0.20 0.26 0.13 0.34
VaR 95% -0.169% -0.968% -1.971% -2.084% -1.685%
VaR 99% -0.279% -1.189% -3.128% -3.417% -2.827%
CVaR 95% -0.224% -1.078% -2.550% -2.751% -2.256%
Skew -0.02 -0.33 0.44 0.20 0.27
Excess kurtosis 6.02 0.53 2.17 0.44 0.63
Best day 0.30% 0.96% 4.08% 3.94% 3.43%
Worst day -0.28% -1.19% -3.13% -3.42% -2.83%
Positive days 16 19 15 15 15
Negative days 12 11 15 15 15
Round trips 8 65 125 139 110
Winning / losing trades 8 / 0 65 / 0 125 / 0 139 / 0 110 / 0
Trades per day 0.27 2.17 4.17 4.63 3.67
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 0.0209 0.0210 0.0427 0.0517 0.0652
Average win 0.0209 0.0210 0.0427 0.0517 0.0652
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 0.0209 0.0210 0.0427 0.0517 0.0652
Max win streak 8 65 125 139 110
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 18.24% 63.36% 88.78% 93.79% 95.51%
Turnover 0.00 0.01 0.04 0.06 0.06
Realised P&L 0.17 1.37 5.33 7.19 7.17
Unrealised P&L 0.00 -1.87 -3.77 -6.26 -5.15
Fees paid 0.12 1.57 4.92 7.27 6.63
Fee drag 0.10% 1.29% 4.04% 5.96% 5.44%
Final equity 122.17 121.50 123.56 122.92 124.02

3m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 0.07% 1.81% 4.94% 0.43% 0.54%
CAGR 0.84% 24.41% 79.76% 5.40% 6.79%
Buy and hold 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86%
Edge vs B&H -21.79% -20.05% -16.92% -21.43% -21.32%
Volatility (ann.) 1.22% 6.86% 23.89% 31.20% 26.73%
Sharpe 0.69 3.22 2.57 0.32 0.38
Sortino 0.62 3.34 2.60 0.32 0.37
Calmar 2.90 17.90 19.16 0.93 1.41
Omega 1.03 1.05 1.02 1.00 1.00
Max drawdown 0.29% 1.36% 4.16% 5.82% 4.82%
Ulcer index 0.0002 0.0026 0.0124 0.0229 0.0197
Drawdown episodes 7 195 351 216 138
Longest underwater (days) 18.6 3.4 6.5 8.0 8.2
Recovery factor 0.24 1.33 1.19 0.07 0.11
VaR 95% -0.000% -0.484% -1.933% -2.059% -1.665%
VaR 99% -0.085% -1.111% -2.505% -3.208% -2.680%
CVaR 95% -0.043% -0.798% -2.219% -2.633% -2.173%
Skew 0.27 -1.46 0.27 0.16 0.29
Excess kurtosis 10.26 5.54 2.29 0.80 0.78
Best day 0.09% 0.77% 3.46% 3.63% 3.23%
Worst day -0.09% -1.11% -2.51% -3.21% -2.68%
Positive days 14 24 19 16 14
Negative days 12 5 10 13 15
Round trips 4 53 118 85 61
Winning / losing trades 4 / 0 53 / 0 118 / 0 85 / 0 61 / 0
Trades per day 0.13 1.77 3.93 2.83 2.03
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 0.0209 0.0417 0.0601 0.0794 0.0956
Average win 0.0209 0.0417 0.0601 0.0794 0.0956
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 0.0209 0.0417 0.0601 0.0794 0.0956
Max win streak 4 53 118 85 61
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 4.99% 23.40% 73.90% 88.78% 91.99%
Turnover 0.00 0.02 0.06 0.06 0.05
Realised P&L 0.08 2.21 7.09 6.75 5.83
Unrealised P&L -0.00 0.00 -1.07 -6.22 -5.17
Fees paid 0.06 1.24 4.78 4.77 3.69
Fee drag 0.05% 1.02% 3.92% 3.91% 3.03%
Final equity 122.08 124.21 128.02 122.53 122.66

5m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 0.02% 1.32% 7.27% 5.82% 0.36%
CAGR 0.21% 17.35% 134.99% 99.08% 4.46%
Buy and hold 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83%
Edge vs B&H -21.81% -20.51% -14.55% -16.01% -21.47%
Volatility (ann.) 1.06% 6.18% 21.59% 28.96% 26.42%
Sharpe 0.20 2.62 4.07 2.52 0.30
Sortino 0.18 2.61 4.23 2.58 0.29
Calmar 0.65 15.32 35.40 21.10 0.93
Omega 1.01 1.06 1.05 1.03 1.00
Max drawdown 0.32% 1.13% 3.81% 4.70% 4.78%
Ulcer index 0.0002 0.0013 0.0111 0.0158 0.0194
Drawdown episodes 3 182 344 227 120
Longest underwater (days) 19.0 4.9 6.3 6.5 8.2
Recovery factor 0.05 1.17 1.91 1.24 0.08
VaR 95% -0.000% -0.245% -1.864% -2.002% -1.706%
VaR 99% -0.075% -0.507% -2.240% -3.028% -2.663%
CVaR 95% -0.037% -0.376% -2.052% -2.515% -2.185%
Skew 1.05 0.22 0.48 0.17 0.34
Excess kurtosis 11.51 4.60 2.21 1.45 0.60
Best day 0.09% 0.62% 3.33% 3.91% 3.12%
Worst day -0.07% -0.51% -2.24% -3.03% -2.66%
Positive days 15 26 23 21 15
Negative days 12 3 7 9 15
Round trips 2 33 100 93 45
Winning / losing trades 2 / 0 33 / 0 100 / 0 93 / 0 45 / 0
Trades per day 0.07 1.10 3.33 3.10 1.50
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 0.0105 0.0489 0.0888 0.0927 0.1241
Average win 0.0105 0.0489 0.0888 0.0927 0.1241
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 0.0105 0.0489 0.0888 0.0927 0.1241
Max win streak 2 33 100 93 45
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 4.37% 14.45% 60.59% 80.96% 90.05%
Turnover 0.00 0.01 0.07 0.07 0.05
Realised P&L 0.02 1.62 8.88 8.62 5.59
Unrealised P&L -0.00 0.00 0.00 -1.52 -5.15
Fees paid 0.03 0.79 4.08 5.21 2.73
Fee drag 0.02% 0.65% 3.34% 4.27% 2.24%
Final equity 122.02 123.62 130.88 129.10 122.44

Every number on this page is read from the run record that produced it — the audit pipeline writes the page and the record together, so the two cannot drift apart.

What the guard is, and what a better number under it means. The break-even guard refuses any exit below average entry plus fees. It cannot improve a strategy's judgement — it can only stop it selling at a loss, which means holding the position instead. Across the pack that turns a strategy that churned into one that buys and waits: trade counts collapse and time in market rises towards 100%. In a window where the asset itself rose, that reads as a much better return while being strictly less of a strategy.

So read the return next to round trips, time in market and edge vs buy and hold. The last of those is the one that matters: not one strategy in this matrix beat simply holding the asset, in either run.

Ignore the win rate and the profit factor under the guard. Both count closed trades only, and the guard closes nothing at a loss — in all 101 guarded runs the number of losing closed trades is exactly zero. So the win rate goes to 100% and the profit factor becomes undefined for arithmetic reasons, while the losses sit in the position that is still open. The unrealised row is where they went.