← BB_Reversion

BB_Reversion — metrics

Unguarded: PASSGuarded: PASSDirectionalgunbot-quant

BTCUSDT · 2026-08-13 01:50 → 2026-09-12 01:50 UTC (30 days) · 0.03% fee + 2 bps slippage · 1,000 quote, one figure for every cell

The same document for both runs of the same measurement — first as the strategy ships, then with the break-even guard. Everything else about the two runs is identical.

As it ships PASS

Exits: the strategy's own exits, stops included

The metric set the portfolio dashboard reports, computed per cell so a backtested configuration and a running one read on the same axes. Portfolio-level measures (concentration, pairwise correlation, beta against a benchmark) are omitted: one strategy on one pair has no cross-sectional structure to measure, and printing a null would imply the number exists.

1m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return -6.96% -11.55% -26.17% -26.43% -14.07%
CAGR -58.44% -77.53% -97.51% -97.61% -84.20%
Buy and hold 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88%
Edge vs B&H -28.84% -33.43% -48.05% -48.32% -35.96%
Volatility (ann.) 1.42% 2.76% 6.93% 14.36% 15.32%
Sharpe -61.84 -54.03 -53.21 -25.93 -11.97
Sortino -42.12 -39.09 -39.17 -21.60 -10.49
Calmar -8.39 -6.71 -3.72 -3.68 -5.98
Omega 0.55 0.61 0.62 0.80 0.89
Max drawdown 6.96% 11.55% 26.19% 26.54% 14.07%
Ulcer index 0.0402 0.0677 0.1558 0.1447 0.0694
Drawdown episodes 2 2 1 2 1
Longest underwater (days) 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 29.7
Recovery factor -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00
VaR 95% -0.347% -0.640% -1.514% -2.586% -1.619%
VaR 99% -0.399% -0.721% -1.713% -2.712% -1.993%
CVaR 95% -0.373% -0.680% -1.614% -2.649% -1.806%
Skew 0.27 0.65 0.40 -0.12 0.63
Excess kurtosis 0.29 0.55 -0.62 -0.51 0.75
Best day -0.04% 0.05% -0.19% 0.77% 1.69%
Worst day -0.40% -0.72% -1.71% -2.71% -1.99%
Positive days 0 1 0 3 6
Negative days 30 29 30 27 24
Round trips 775 695 616 442 258
Winning / losing trades 178 / 597 180 / 515 144 / 472 157 / 285 113 / 145
Trades per day 25.83 23.17 20.53 14.73 8.60
Win rate 22.97% 25.90% 23.38% 35.52% 43.80%
Profit factor 0.16 0.18 0.14 0.32 0.50
Payoff ratio 0.55 0.51 0.47 0.57 0.65
Expectancy -0.0898 -0.1661 -0.4248 -0.5981 -0.5455
Average win 0.0771 0.1381 0.3058 0.7806 1.2635
Average loss 0.1396 0.2725 0.6477 1.3575 1.9553
Average trade -0.0898 -0.1661 -0.4248 -0.5981 -0.5455
Max win streak 5 6 5 6 7
Max loss streak 55 51 51 35 27
Time in market 17.61% 21.17% 23.30% 24.84% 18.64%
Turnover 0.10 0.17 0.35 0.51 0.43
Realised P&L -69.62 -115.47 -261.70 -264.35 -140.73
Unrealised P&L 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.00
Fees paid 43.15 71.91 153.13 192.55 133.43
Fee drag 4.32% 7.19% 15.31% 19.25% 13.34%
Final equity 930.38 884.53 738.30 735.65 859.27

3m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return -1.84% -3.30% -6.85% -7.21% -3.05%
CAGR -20.23% -33.51% -57.83% -59.76% -31.43%
Buy and hold 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86%
Edge vs B&H -23.70% -25.16% -28.71% -29.07% -24.91%
Volatility (ann.) 1.44% 2.83% 7.55% 13.62% 14.72%
Sharpe -15.69 -14.41 -11.40 -6.61 -2.49
Sortino -12.50 -11.85 -9.47 -5.80 -2.26
Calmar -10.53 -9.99 -8.28 -7.23 -8.48
Omega 0.79 0.81 0.84 0.91 0.96
Max drawdown 1.92% 3.36% 6.98% 8.27% 3.71%
Ulcer index 0.0107 0.0190 0.0362 0.0412 0.0222
Drawdown episodes 4 3 2 1 2
Longest underwater (days) 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7
Recovery factor -0.96 -0.98 -0.98 -0.87 -0.82
VaR 95% -0.167% -0.240% -0.853% -1.675% -1.085%
VaR 99% -0.284% -0.468% -0.865% -1.893% -1.339%
CVaR 95% -0.226% -0.354% -0.859% -1.784% -1.212%
Skew -0.63 -1.12 -0.41 -0.41 -0.16
Excess kurtosis 2.00 1.80 -0.32 -0.19 -0.80
Best day 0.10% 0.04% 0.33% 0.91% 0.95%
Worst day -0.28% -0.47% -0.87% -1.89% -1.34%
Positive days 4 4 8 6 15
Negative days 25 25 21 23 14
Round trips 264 230 193 137 79
Winning / losing trades 109 / 155 103 / 127 90 / 103 76 / 61 45 / 34
Trades per day 8.80 7.67 6.43 4.57 2.63
Win rate 41.29% 44.78% 46.63% 55.47% 56.96%
Profit factor 0.46 0.43 0.44 0.56 0.77
Payoff ratio 0.65 0.53 0.50 0.45 0.58
Expectancy -0.0697 -0.1434 -0.3550 -0.5262 -0.3865
Average win 0.1419 0.2428 0.5893 1.2320 2.2557
Average loss 0.2185 0.4567 1.1800 2.7167 3.8836
Average trade -0.0697 -0.1434 -0.3550 -0.5262 -0.3865
Max win streak 5 6 6 9 6
Max loss streak 17 13 11 6 6
Time in market 20.97% 23.44% 26.11% 23.90% 19.88%
Turnover 0.05 0.08 0.17 0.26 0.23
Realised P&L -18.41 -32.99 -68.51 -72.09 -30.54
Unrealised P&L 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fees paid 14.46 22.85 52.21 65.94 44.06
Fee drag 1.45% 2.29% 5.22% 6.59% 4.41%
Final equity 981.59 967.01 931.49 927.91 969.46

5m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return -1.11% -1.86% -4.69% -12.24% -2.76%
CAGR -12.66% -20.41% -44.29% -79.58% -28.89%
Buy and hold 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83%
Edge vs B&H -22.94% -23.69% -26.52% -34.07% -24.59%
Volatility (ann.) 1.30% 2.67% 7.41% 13.74% 15.08%
Sharpe -10.40 -8.53 -7.86 -11.49 -2.19
Sortino -8.70 -7.75 -6.93 -9.43 -1.97
Calmar -10.37 -9.77 -8.97 -6.42 -8.29
Omega 0.82 0.86 0.85 0.80 0.96
Max drawdown 1.22% 2.09% 4.94% 12.40% 3.49%
Ulcer index 0.0062 0.0095 0.0233 0.0715 0.0136
Drawdown episodes 14 13 3 5 10
Longest underwater (days) 20.9 20.9 29.7 29.4 29.3
Recovery factor -0.91 -0.89 -0.95 -0.99 -0.79
VaR 95% -0.164% -0.236% -0.790% -2.485% -1.016%
VaR 99% -0.225% -0.420% -1.015% -3.637% -1.134%
CVaR 95% -0.195% -0.328% -0.902% -3.061% -1.075%
Skew 0.91 0.33 -0.01 -1.57 0.31
Excess kurtosis 2.53 0.80 -0.61 3.51 1.34
Best day 0.25% 0.34% 0.65% 1.00% 1.60%
Worst day -0.23% -0.42% -1.01% -3.64% -1.13%
Positive days 6 8 9 8 14
Negative days 24 22 21 22 16
Round trips 153 138 115 71 46
Winning / losing trades 71 / 82 71 / 67 60 / 55 34 / 37 28 / 18
Trades per day 5.10 4.60 3.83 2.37 1.53
Win rate 46.41% 51.45% 52.17% 47.89% 60.87%
Profit factor 0.55 0.57 0.54 0.31 0.70
Payoff ratio 0.63 0.54 0.49 0.33 0.45
Expectancy -0.0723 -0.1347 -0.4083 -1.7240 -0.6008
Average win 0.1875 0.3471 0.9022 1.5840 2.3255
Average loss 0.2973 0.6453 1.8379 4.7638 5.1529
Average trade -0.0723 -0.1347 -0.4083 -1.7240 -0.6008
Max win streak 8 7 5 5 8
Max loss streak 6 4 5 5 4
Time in market 21.54% 24.94% 25.15% 23.54% 22.28%
Turnover 0.04 0.07 0.16 0.23 0.16
Realised P&L -11.07 -18.59 -46.95 -122.40 -27.64
Unrealised P&L 0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fees paid 8.36 13.73 30.74 33.53 26.57
Fee drag 0.84% 1.37% 3.07% 3.35% 2.66%
Final equity 988.93 981.41 953.05 877.60 972.36

Every number on this page is read from the run record that produced it — the audit pipeline writes the page and the record together, so the two cannot drift apart.

With the break-even guard PASS

Exits: no exit below average entry plus fees, stops included

The metric set the portfolio dashboard reports, computed per cell so a backtested configuration and a running one read on the same axes. Portfolio-level measures (concentration, pairwise correlation, beta against a benchmark) are omitted: one strategy on one pair has no cross-sectional structure to measure, and printing a null would imply the number exists.

1m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 0.47% 0.37% 0.85% 0.30% 0.38%
CAGR 5.82% 4.60% 10.86% 3.73% 4.69%
Buy and hold 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88%
Edge vs B&H -21.42% -21.51% -21.03% -21.58% -21.50%
Volatility (ann.) 3.07% 5.02% 10.58% 23.92% 18.76%
Sharpe 1.86 0.92 1.03 0.27 0.34
Sortino 1.80 0.89 0.99 0.26 0.32
Calmar 12.24 6.35 6.04 0.78 1.52
Omega 1.01 1.00 1.01 1.00 1.00
Max drawdown 0.48% 0.72% 1.80% 4.77% 3.07%
Ulcer index 0.0013 0.0027 0.0055 0.0173 0.0123
Drawdown episodes 209 148 145 115 138
Longest underwater (days) 3.8 6.7 6.5 8.2 8.2
Recovery factor 0.98 0.51 0.47 0.06 0.12
VaR 95% -0.186% -0.303% -0.825% -1.991% -1.068%
VaR 99% -0.283% -0.455% -1.039% -3.074% -1.689%
CVaR 95% -0.235% -0.379% -0.932% -2.533% -1.379%
Skew 0.10 0.19 0.11 0.21 0.25
Excess kurtosis 0.04 0.51 1.19 2.08 0.42
Best day 0.29% 0.50% 1.18% 3.53% 1.91%
Worst day -0.28% -0.46% -1.04% -3.07% -1.69%
Positive days 16 16 17 15 15
Negative days 14 14 13 15 15
Round trips 60 52 54 49 48
Winning / losing trades 60 / 0 52 / 0 54 / 0 49 / 0 48 / 0
Trades per day 2.00 1.73 1.80 1.63 1.60
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 0.0991 0.1561 0.3028 0.5925 0.6209
Average win 0.0991 0.1561 0.3028 0.5925 0.6209
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 0.0991 0.1561 0.3028 0.5925 0.6209
Max win streak 60 52 54 49 48
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 75.36% 86.71% 88.87% 89.96% 89.98%
Turnover 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.03
Realised P&L 5.95 8.12 16.35 29.03 29.80
Unrealised P&L -1.29 -4.41 -7.84 -26.01 -26.03
Fees paid 4.22 6.41 14.73 23.77 25.06
Fee drag 0.42% 0.64% 1.47% 2.38% 2.51%
Final equity 1004.66 1003.71 1008.51 1003.02 1003.77

3m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 0.97% 1.18% 1.47% 1.88% 2.26%
CAGR 12.42% 15.37% 19.40% 25.48% 31.25%
Buy and hold 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86%
Edge vs B&H -20.89% -20.68% -20.39% -19.98% -19.60%
Volatility (ann.) 2.29% 4.89% 11.90% 21.65% 23.74%
Sharpe 5.13 2.95 1.55 1.16 1.26
Sortino 5.09 2.95 1.53 1.15 1.26
Calmar 32.39 20.55 8.45 6.42 7.26
Omega 1.06 1.03 1.02 1.01 1.01
Max drawdown 0.38% 0.75% 2.30% 3.97% 4.30%
Ulcer index 0.0007 0.0025 0.0055 0.0120 0.0127
Drawdown episodes 235 142 137 151 171
Longest underwater (days) 4.4 7.1 6.8 9.3 6.8
Recovery factor 2.52 1.58 0.64 0.47 0.52
VaR 95% -0.078% -0.374% -0.725% -1.297% -1.412%
VaR 99% -0.187% -0.393% -1.194% -1.450% -1.450%
CVaR 95% -0.133% -0.384% -0.960% -1.373% -1.431%
Skew -0.29 0.12 0.12 0.01 -0.01
Excess kurtosis 1.19 1.20 2.43 -0.32 -0.48
Best day 0.20% 0.56% 1.36% 1.81% 1.83%
Worst day -0.19% -0.39% -1.19% -1.45% -1.45%
Positive days 22 20 21 18 17
Negative days 7 9 8 11 12
Round trips 51 51 51 51 53
Winning / losing trades 51 / 0 51 / 0 51 / 0 51 / 0 53 / 0
Trades per day 1.70 1.70 1.70 1.70 1.77
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 0.1896 0.2317 0.4505 0.9943 1.0838
Average win 0.1896 0.2317 0.4505 0.9943 1.0838
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 0.1896 0.2317 0.4505 0.9943 1.0838
Max win streak 51 51 51 51 53
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 48.90% 67.22% 74.54% 75.99% 76.31%
Turnover 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.05 0.06
Realised P&L 9.67 11.82 22.98 50.71 57.44
Unrealised P&L 0.00 0.00 -8.30 -31.88 -34.84
Fees paid 3.37 5.74 13.87 25.58 29.66
Fee drag 0.34% 0.57% 1.39% 2.56% 2.97%
Final equity 1009.67 1011.82 1014.68 1018.83 1022.60

5m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 0.74% -0.37% 1.91% 4.58% 5.12%
CAGR 9.39% -4.39% 25.89% 72.49% 83.68%
Buy and hold 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83%
Edge vs B&H -21.09% -22.20% -19.92% -17.25% -16.70%
Volatility (ann.) 2.00% 4.80% 11.40% 21.64% 23.72%
Sharpe 4.50 -0.91 2.08 2.63 2.68
Sortino 4.71 -0.89 2.13 2.71 2.77
Calmar 24.95 -4.26 11.33 17.23 18.34
Omega 1.07 0.99 1.02 1.03 1.03
Max drawdown 0.38% 1.03% 2.29% 4.21% 4.56%
Ulcer index 0.0007 0.0030 0.0071 0.0132 0.0142
Drawdown episodes 185 55 93 90 115
Longest underwater (days) 5.7 9.3 6.5 6.5 6.5
Recovery factor 1.97 -0.36 0.84 1.09 1.12
VaR 95% -0.100% -0.322% -1.027% -1.910% -2.075%
VaR 99% -0.167% -0.365% -1.389% -2.539% -2.760%
CVaR 95% -0.133% -0.343% -1.208% -2.224% -2.417%
Skew 1.66 0.28 0.39 0.37 0.32
Excess kurtosis 4.14 1.38 2.13 1.68 1.61
Best day 0.36% 0.52% 1.83% 3.41% 3.65%
Worst day -0.17% -0.36% -1.39% -2.54% -2.76%
Positive days 22 19 20 20 19
Negative days 8 11 10 10 11
Round trips 32 19 29 35 38
Winning / losing trades 32 / 0 19 / 0 29 / 0 35 / 0 38 / 0
Trades per day 1.07 0.63 0.97 1.17 1.27
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 0.2314 0.2121 0.9410 1.8016 1.8043
Average win 0.2314 0.2121 0.9410 1.8016 1.8043
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 0.2314 0.2121 0.9410 1.8016 1.8043
Max win streak 32 19 29 35 38
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 43.87% 70.72% 72.84% 73.43% 73.96%
Turnover 0.01 0.00 0.03 0.06 0.07
Realised P&L 7.41 4.03 27.29 63.06 68.56
Unrealised P&L -0.00 -7.71 -8.19 -17.23 -17.32
Fees paid 2.06 2.13 8.66 18.57 22.22
Fee drag 0.21% 0.21% 0.87% 1.86% 2.22%
Final equity 1007.41 996.32 1019.10 1045.83 1051.25

Every number on this page is read from the run record that produced it — the audit pipeline writes the page and the record together, so the two cannot drift apart.

What the guard is, and what a better number under it means. The break-even guard refuses any exit below average entry plus fees. It cannot improve a strategy's judgement — it can only stop it selling at a loss, which means holding the position instead. Across the pack that turns a strategy that churned into one that buys and waits: trade counts collapse and time in market rises towards 100%. In a window where the asset itself rose, that reads as a much better return while being strictly less of a strategy.

So read the return next to round trips, time in market and edge vs buy and hold. The last of those is the one that matters: not one strategy in this matrix beat simply holding the asset, in either run.

Ignore the win rate and the profit factor under the guard. Both count closed trades only, and the guard closes nothing at a loss — in all 101 guarded runs the number of losing closed trades is exactly zero. So the win rate goes to 100% and the profit factor becomes undefined for arithmetic reasons, while the losses sit in the position that is still open. The unrealised row is where they went.