← Balance_Of_Power

Balance_Of_Power — metrics

Unguarded: PASSGuarded: FAIL · 3 failDirectionalgunbot-quant

BTCUSDT · 2026-08-13 01:50 → 2026-09-12 01:50 UTC (30 days) · 0.03% fee + 2 bps slippage · 1,000 quote, one figure for every cell

The same document for both runs of the same measurement — first as the strategy ships, then with the break-even guard. Everything else about the two runs is identical.

As it ships PASS

Exits: the strategy's own exits, stops included

The metric set the portfolio dashboard reports, computed per cell so a backtested configuration and a running one read on the same axes. Portfolio-level measures (concentration, pairwise correlation, beta against a benchmark) are omitted: one strategy on one pair has no cross-sectional structure to measure, and printing a null would imply the number exists.

1m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return -6.34% -11.53% -23.62% -31.24% -22.66%
CAGR -54.94% -77.48% -96.23% -98.95% -95.61%
Buy and hold 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88%
Edge vs B&H -28.22% -33.41% -45.51% -53.13% -44.54%
Volatility (ann.) 1.55% 3.05% 8.27% 12.18% 10.82%
Sharpe -51.46 -48.86 -39.59 -37.35 -28.83
Sortino -30.80 -29.06 -26.44 -27.67 -25.41
Calmar -8.53 -6.62 -4.04 -3.17 -4.22
Omega 0.45 0.47 0.57 0.69 0.76
Max drawdown 6.44% 11.71% 23.82% 31.25% 22.66%
Ulcer index 0.0393 0.0724 0.1515 0.1920 0.1296
Drawdown episodes 2 2 2 3 3
Longest underwater (days) 30.0 30.0 29.9 30.0 30.0
Recovery factor -0.98 -0.98 -0.99 -1.00 -1.00
VaR 95% -0.367% -0.700% -1.900% -2.010% -1.525%
VaR 99% -0.419% -0.771% -1.940% -2.047% -1.652%
CVaR 95% -0.393% -0.736% -1.920% -2.029% -1.589%
Skew 0.19 0.18 -0.39 0.20 3.44
Excess kurtosis -0.98 -1.02 -0.61 -1.19 13.79
Best day -0.02% -0.02% -0.08% -0.29% 2.98%
Worst day -0.42% -0.77% -1.94% -2.05% -1.65%
Positive days 0 0 0 0 1
Negative days 30 30 30 30 29
Round trips 714 714 714 714 714
Winning / losing trades 36 / 678 29 / 685 20 / 694 55 / 659 71 / 643
Trades per day 23.80 23.80 23.80 23.80 23.80
Win rate 5.04% 4.06% 2.80% 7.70% 9.94%
Profit factor 0.12 0.11 0.12 0.22 0.34
Payoff ratio 2.26 2.55 4.28 2.64 3.08
Expectancy -0.0888 -0.1615 -0.3309 -0.4376 -0.3174
Average win 0.2400 0.4812 1.6621 1.6083 1.6454
Average loss 0.1063 0.1887 0.3883 0.6084 0.5341
Average trade -0.0888 -0.1615 -0.3309 -0.4376 -0.3174
Max win streak 2 1 2 3 3
Max loss streak 73 73 84 51 51
Time in market 7.87% 8.52% 10.35% 18.03% 22.46%
Turnover 0.08 0.14 0.30 0.49 0.46
Realised P&L -63.43 -115.31 -236.24 -312.45 -226.60
Unrealised P&L -0.00 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00
Fees paid 40.84 72.87 147.47 196.27 163.74
Fee drag 4.08% 7.29% 14.75% 19.63% 16.37%
Final equity 936.57 884.69 763.76 687.55 773.40

3m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return -2.60% -4.62% -9.49% -7.20% -4.74%
CAGR -27.41% -43.78% -70.27% -59.71% -44.60%
Buy and hold 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86%
Edge vs B&H -24.46% -26.48% -31.35% -29.06% -26.60%
Volatility (ann.) 1.17% 2.52% 8.46% 13.25% 10.61%
Sharpe -27.38 -22.87 -14.29 -6.80 -5.51
Sortino -18.62 -16.34 -10.79 -5.74 -5.12
Calmar -10.31 -9.25 -6.99 -5.95 -6.74
Omega 0.56 0.60 0.71 0.90 0.93
Max drawdown 2.66% 4.73% 10.05% 10.04% 6.62%
Ulcer index 0.0165 0.0293 0.0628 0.0609 0.0382
Drawdown episodes 4 4 2 10 9
Longest underwater (days) 29.9 29.9 29.9 21.7 21.7
Recovery factor -0.98 -0.98 -0.94 -0.72 -0.72
VaR 95% -0.205% -0.366% -0.737% -1.202% -0.997%
VaR 99% -0.207% -0.367% -0.855% -1.412% -1.078%
CVaR 95% -0.206% -0.367% -0.796% -1.307% -1.038%
Skew -0.25 0.24 0.01 2.72 2.30
Excess kurtosis -0.89 -0.25 -1.11 8.45 6.73
Best day 0.00% 0.14% 0.07% 4.02% 2.85%
Worst day -0.21% -0.37% -0.86% -1.41% -1.08%
Positive days 2 1 3 3 5
Negative days 26 27 25 25 23
Round trips 266 266 266 266 266
Winning / losing trades 29 / 237 23 / 243 19 / 247 32 / 234 50 / 216
Trades per day 8.87 8.87 8.87 8.87 8.87
Win rate 10.90% 8.65% 7.14% 12.03% 18.80%
Profit factor 0.14 0.15 0.21 0.63 0.69
Payoff ratio 1.11 1.59 2.67 4.64 3.00
Expectancy -0.0977 -0.1738 -0.3567 -0.2707 -0.1781
Average win 0.1402 0.3563 1.2886 3.9024 2.1587
Average loss 0.1268 0.2240 0.4832 0.8413 0.7191
Average trade -0.0977 -0.1738 -0.3567 -0.2707 -0.1781
Max win streak 2 2 2 2 3
Max loss streak 30 52 51 28 18
Time in market 8.96% 9.85% 10.69% 19.57% 25.79%
Turnover 0.03 0.06 0.14 0.32 0.26
Realised P&L -25.98 -46.23 -94.87 -72.00 -47.38
Unrealised P&L -0.00 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00
Fees paid 14.71 26.60 57.65 83.97 66.46
Fee drag 1.47% 2.66% 5.76% 8.40% 6.65%
Final equity 974.02 953.77 905.13 928.00 952.62

5m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return -1.65% -2.21% -2.79% -7.45% -2.75%
CAGR -18.35% -23.79% -29.14% -61.01% -28.73%
Buy and hold 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83%
Edge vs B&H -23.48% -24.04% -24.62% -29.28% -24.57%
Volatility (ann.) 1.49% 3.71% 10.09% 14.50% 12.06%
Sharpe -13.63 -7.31 -3.36 -6.42 -2.75
Sortino -9.55 -5.83 -2.62 -5.28 -2.73
Calmar -10.15 -8.39 -5.28 -5.89 -3.62
Omega 0.68 0.78 0.90 0.87 0.95
Max drawdown 1.81% 2.83% 5.52% 10.36% 7.93%
Ulcer index 0.0117 0.0184 0.0322 0.0656 0.0486
Drawdown episodes 3 3 3 9 25
Longest underwater (days) 29.9 29.9 29.9 21.7 21.7
Recovery factor -0.91 -0.78 -0.51 -0.72 -0.35
VaR 95% -0.184% -0.361% -0.856% -1.218% -1.121%
VaR 99% -0.190% -0.365% -0.990% -1.647% -1.435%
CVaR 95% -0.187% -0.363% -0.923% -1.432% -1.278%
Skew 0.24 2.08 2.98 1.49 1.90
Excess kurtosis 0.31 6.85 11.50 4.31 4.35
Best day 0.12% 0.75% 2.80% 2.37% 2.95%
Worst day -0.19% -0.36% -0.99% -1.65% -1.44%
Positive days 2 4 6 5 7
Negative days 26 24 22 24 22
Round trips 196 196 196 196 196
Winning / losing trades 27 / 169 22 / 174 22 / 174 25 / 171 32 / 164
Trades per day 6.53 6.53 6.53 6.53 6.53
Win rate 13.78% 11.22% 11.22% 12.76% 16.33%
Profit factor 0.34 0.51 0.69 0.58 0.82
Payoff ratio 2.12 4.06 5.49 3.95 4.19
Expectancy -0.0843 -0.1127 -0.1424 -0.3800 -0.1401
Average win 0.3146 1.0580 2.8843 4.0778 3.8260
Average loss 0.1481 0.2607 0.5251 1.0317 0.9139
Average trade -0.0843 -0.1127 -0.1424 -0.3800 -0.1401
Max win streak 2 1 2 2 2
Max loss streak 34 34 34 22 19
Time in market 9.73% 10.42% 11.86% 19.35% 24.70%
Turnover 0.03 0.07 0.15 0.28 0.27
Realised P&L -16.53 -22.08 -27.91 -74.49 -27.45
Unrealised P&L 0.00 0.00 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00
Fees paid 10.70 19.17 38.20 60.34 50.19
Fee drag 1.07% 1.92% 3.82% 6.03% 5.02%
Final equity 983.47 977.92 972.09 925.51 972.55

Every number on this page is read from the run record that produced it — the audit pipeline writes the page and the record together, so the two cannot drift apart.

With the break-even guard FAIL · 3 fail

Exits: no exit below average entry plus fees, stops included

The metric set the portfolio dashboard reports, computed per cell so a backtested configuration and a running one read on the same axes. Portfolio-level measures (concentration, pairwise correlation, beta against a benchmark) are omitted: one strategy on one pair has no cross-sectional structure to measure, and printing a null would imply the number exists.

1m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 1.04% 1.20% 9.55% 14.17% 15.84%
CAGR 13.36% 15.56% 203.44% 401.56% 498.20%
Buy and hold 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88%
Edge vs B&H -20.85% -20.69% -12.33% -7.71% -6.04%
Volatility (ann.) 3.37% 8.52% 25.18% 32.85% 35.91%
Sharpe 3.74 1.74 4.53 5.07 5.16
Sortino 3.55 1.65 4.54 5.07 5.16
Calmar 21.83 6.12 36.55 66.70 75.63
Omega 1.02 1.01 1.02 1.02 1.03
Max drawdown 0.61% 2.54% 5.57% 6.02% 6.59%
Ulcer index 0.0028 0.0112 0.0252 0.0273 0.0297
Drawdown episodes 45 35 52 74 75
Longest underwater (days) 9.6 21.7 21.7 21.7 21.7
Recovery factor 1.69 0.47 1.72 2.35 2.40
VaR 95% -0.205% -0.730% -1.949% -2.185% -2.381%
VaR 99% -0.303% -1.251% -2.727% -3.354% -3.638%
CVaR 95% -0.254% -0.991% -2.338% -2.769% -3.010%
Skew 1.12 0.29 1.75 1.48 1.48
Excess kurtosis 1.66 2.83 4.75 2.98 2.87
Best day 0.62% 1.48% 6.67% 7.72% 8.35%
Worst day -0.30% -1.25% -2.73% -3.35% -3.64%
Positive days 16 16 16 15 15
Negative days 14 14 14 15 15
Round trips 43 35 32 31 30
Winning / losing trades 43 / 0 35 / 0 32 / 0 31 / 0 30 / 0
Trades per day 1.43 1.17 1.07 1.03 1.00
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 0.3561 0.5854 3.4936 5.6822 6.4435
Average win 0.3561 0.5854 3.4936 5.6822 6.4435
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 0.3561 0.5854 3.4936 5.6822 6.4435
Max win streak 43 35 32 31 30
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 94.43% 96.48% 98.27% 98.76% 98.85%
Turnover 0.02 0.02 0.11 0.18 0.19
Realised P&L 15.31 20.49 111.80 176.15 193.30
Unrealised P&L -4.95 -8.53 -16.27 -34.42 -34.93
Fees paid 4.41 7.45 15.41 18.60 19.92
Fee drag 0.44% 0.75% 1.54% 1.86% 1.99%
Final equity 1010.36 1011.96 1095.53 1141.72 1158.38

3m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 0.42% 2.82% 6.36% 14.10% 15.91%
CAGR 5.26% 40.23% 111.75% 397.63% 502.96%
Buy and hold 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86%
Edge vs B&H -21.44% -19.04% -15.50% -7.76% -5.95%
Volatility (ann.) 3.20% 8.03% 18.64% 28.68% 33.22%
Sharpe 1.62 4.25 4.12 5.74 5.58
Sortino 1.56 4.56 4.29 5.89 5.69
Calmar 8.78 25.95 23.35 65.72 79.75
Omega 1.01 1.04 1.04 1.05 1.05
Max drawdown 0.60% 1.55% 4.79% 6.05% 6.31%
Ulcer index 0.0026 0.0066 0.0178 0.0258 0.0278
Drawdown episodes 26 21 27 48 51
Longest underwater (days) 9.5 9.7 10.3 9.8 9.7
Recovery factor 0.70 1.82 1.33 2.33 2.52
VaR 95% -0.174% -0.507% -1.584% -1.958% -2.378%
VaR 99% -0.239% -0.828% -2.551% -3.140% -3.407%
CVaR 95% -0.206% -0.667% -2.068% -2.549% -2.892%
Skew 0.59 2.52 1.17 1.38 1.18
Excess kurtosis -0.27 8.27 2.29 1.93 1.36
Best day 0.34% 2.49% 3.96% 6.70% 7.26%
Worst day -0.24% -0.83% -2.55% -3.14% -3.41%
Positive days 14 14 15 14 14
Negative days 15 15 14 15 15
Round trips 27 23 22 23 23
Winning / losing trades 27 / 0 23 / 0 22 / 0 23 / 0 23 / 0
Trades per day 0.90 0.77 0.73 0.77 0.77
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 0.3242 1.5716 3.5507 7.5020 8.3128
Average win 0.3242 1.5716 3.5507 7.5020 8.3128
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 0.3242 1.5716 3.5507 7.5020 8.3128
Max win streak 27 23 22 23 23
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 92.11% 94.36% 95.39% 97.82% 97.90%
Turnover 0.01 0.04 0.08 0.17 0.19
Realised P&L 8.75 36.15 78.12 172.55 191.19
Unrealised P&L -4.53 -7.97 -14.51 -31.57 -32.07
Fees paid 2.26 4.15 9.24 12.72 13.76
Fee drag 0.23% 0.41% 0.92% 1.27% 1.38%
Final equity 1004.23 1028.18 1063.60 1140.98 1159.12

5m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 1.57% 2.93% 6.53% 12.38% 13.61%
CAGR 20.93% 42.17% 115.87% 313.93% 372.09%
Buy and hold 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83%
Edge vs B&H -20.25% -18.89% -15.30% -9.44% -8.22%
Volatility (ann.) 4.18% 8.30% 23.73% 33.42% 36.15%
Sharpe 4.57 4.28 3.36 4.42 4.47
Sortino 5.38 4.86 3.41 4.54 4.60
Calmar 27.93 28.61 19.80 50.22 55.45
Omega 1.06 1.05 1.04 1.05 1.05
Max drawdown 0.75% 1.47% 5.85% 6.25% 6.71%
Ulcer index 0.0031 0.0059 0.0285 0.0317 0.0339
Drawdown episodes 18 20 23 35 35
Longest underwater (days) 9.6 9.6 21.7 13.5 13.5
Recovery factor 2.10 1.99 1.12 1.98 2.03
VaR 95% -0.252% -0.494% -1.544% -1.946% -2.081%
VaR 99% -0.433% -0.846% -2.605% -3.204% -3.477%
CVaR 95% -0.343% -0.670% -2.074% -2.575% -2.779%
Skew 2.87 2.78 1.34 1.40 1.41
Excess kurtosis 10.26 9.74 2.63 1.85 1.88
Best day 1.48% 2.73% 4.80% 6.71% 7.25%
Worst day -0.43% -0.85% -2.60% -3.20% -3.48%
Positive days 15 15 15 15 15
Negative days 15 15 15 15 15
Round trips 21 21 21 21 20
Winning / losing trades 21 / 0 21 / 0 21 / 0 21 / 0 20 / 0
Trades per day 0.70 0.70 0.70 0.70 0.67
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 0.9469 1.7411 4.3964 8.4529 9.7383
Average win 0.9469 1.7411 4.3964 8.4529 9.7383
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 0.9469 1.7411 4.3964 8.4529 9.7383
Max win streak 21 21 21 21 20
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 91.11% 92.56% 94.19% 97.35% 97.65%
Turnover 0.02 0.04 0.09 0.18 0.19
Realised P&L 19.88 36.56 92.33 177.51 194.77
Unrealised P&L -4.14 -7.22 -27.04 -53.66 -58.71
Fees paid 1.83 3.60 8.46 11.45 11.64
Fee drag 0.18% 0.36% 0.85% 1.15% 1.16%
Final equity 1015.74 1029.34 1065.29 1123.85 1136.05

Every number on this page is read from the run record that produced it — the audit pipeline writes the page and the record together, so the two cannot drift apart.

What the guard is, and what a better number under it means. The break-even guard refuses any exit below average entry plus fees. It cannot improve a strategy's judgement — it can only stop it selling at a loss, which means holding the position instead. Across the pack that turns a strategy that churned into one that buys and waits: trade counts collapse and time in market rises towards 100%. In a window where the asset itself rose, that reads as a much better return while being strictly less of a strategy.

So read the return next to round trips, time in market and edge vs buy and hold. The last of those is the one that matters: not one strategy in this matrix beat simply holding the asset, in either run.

Ignore the win rate and the profit factor under the guard. Both count closed trades only, and the guard closes nothing at a loss — in all 101 guarded runs the number of losing closed trades is exactly zero. So the win rate goes to 100% and the profit factor becomes undefined for arithmetic reasons, while the losses sit in the position that is still open. The unrealised row is where they went.