← Bandwidth_Expansion

Bandwidth_Expansion — metrics

Unguarded: WARN · 4 warnGuarded: WARN · 4 warnDirectionalgunbot-quant

BTCUSDT · 2026-08-13 01:50 → 2026-09-12 01:50 UTC (30 days) · 0.03% fee + 2 bps slippage · 1,000 quote, one figure for every cell

The same document for both runs of the same measurement — first as the strategy ships, then with the break-even guard. Everything else about the two runs is identical.

As it ships WARN · 4 warn

Exits: the strategy's own exits, stops included

The metric set the portfolio dashboard reports, computed per cell so a backtested configuration and a running one read on the same axes. Portfolio-level measures (concentration, pairwise correlation, beta against a benchmark) are omitted: one strategy on one pair has no cross-sectional structure to measure, and printing a null would imply the number exists.

1m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 0.00% -2.14% -30.94% -53.60% -60.90%
CAGR 0.00% -23.18% -98.89% -99.99% -100.00%
Buy and hold 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88%
Edge vs B&H -21.88% -24.03% -52.82% -75.48% -82.79%
Volatility (ann.) 0.00% 6.37% 14.71% 20.89% 23.41%
Sharpe 0.00 -4.11 -30.54 -44.62 -48.70
Sortino 0.00 -5.08 -32.30 -44.41 -48.27
Calmar 0.00 -8.39 -3.17 -1.86 -1.64
Omega 0.00 0.87 0.68 0.66 0.65
Max drawdown 0.00% 2.76% 31.21% 53.85% 61.05%
Ulcer index 0.0000 0.0140 0.1767 0.3252 0.3758
Drawdown episodes 0 6 1 1 1
Longest underwater (days) 0.0 22.7 30.0 30.0 30.0
Recovery factor 0.00 -0.78 -0.99 -1.00 -1.00
VaR 95% 0.000% -0.393% -2.171% -3.793% -4.628%
VaR 99% 0.000% -0.501% -2.269% -4.399% -5.037%
CVaR 95% 0.000% -0.447% -2.220% -4.096% -4.832%
Skew 0.00 2.54 2.22 1.32 1.39
Excess kurtosis 0.00 6.94 5.76 1.63 1.85
Best day 0.00% 1.21% 2.20% 1.03% 1.28%
Worst day 0.00% -0.50% -2.27% -4.40% -5.04%
Positive days 0 4 2 2 2
Negative days 0 26 28 28 28
Round trips 0 233 893 1,174 1,316
Winning / losing trades 0 / 0 28 / 205 74 / 819 142 / 1,032 154 / 1,162
Trades per day 0.00 7.77 29.77 39.13 43.87
Win rate 0.00% 12.02% 8.29% 12.10% 11.70%
Profit factor 0.00 0.61 0.31 0.30 0.29
Payoff ratio 0.00 4.44 3.43 2.15 2.18
Expectancy 0.0000 -0.0920 -0.3464 -0.4566 -0.4628
Average win 0.0000 1.1783 1.8740 1.5809 1.6084
Average loss 0.0000 0.2655 0.5471 0.7369 0.7373
Average trade 0.0000 -0.0920 -0.3464 -0.4566 -0.4628
Max win streak 0 2 3 3 3
Max loss streak 0 42 61 90 103
Time in market 0.00% 6.21% 20.57% 25.98% 27.86%
Turnover 0.00 0.09 0.59 0.99 1.10
Realised P&L 0.00 -21.44 -309.36 -536.03 -609.05
Unrealised P&L 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.00 -0.00
Fees paid 0.00 32.63 223.52 377.79 424.28
Fee drag 0.00% 3.26% 22.35% 37.78% 42.43%
Final equity 1000.00 978.56 690.64 463.97 390.95

3m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 0.00% 0.69% -9.44% -20.85% -23.60%
CAGR 0.00% 8.79% -70.08% -94.19% -96.22%
Buy and hold 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86%
Edge vs B&H -21.86% -21.17% -31.30% -42.71% -45.46%
Volatility (ann.) 0.00% 4.03% 13.32% 19.64% 21.87%
Sharpe 0.00 2.11 -9.00 -14.39 -14.86
Sortino 0.00 2.48 -9.35 -15.02 -15.58
Calmar 0.00 10.39 -5.79 -4.15 -3.80
Omega 0.00 1.08 0.83 0.80 0.80
Max drawdown 0.00% 0.85% 12.10% 22.67% 25.34%
Ulcer index 0.0000 0.0043 0.0662 0.1179 0.1332
Drawdown episodes 0 14 15 7 5
Longest underwater (days) 0.0 14.2 21.7 21.7 21.7
Recovery factor 0.00 0.82 -0.78 -0.92 -0.93
VaR 95% 0.000% -0.149% -0.870% -2.055% -2.654%
VaR 99% 0.000% -0.229% -1.245% -2.395% -2.877%
CVaR 95% 0.000% -0.189% -1.057% -2.225% -2.765%
Skew 0.00 3.08 2.82 1.95 1.78
Excess kurtosis 0.00 9.75 8.64 4.34 3.83
Best day 0.00% 1.20% 3.24% 3.86% 4.12%
Worst day 0.00% -0.23% -1.25% -2.40% -2.88%
Positive days 0 6 4 5 4
Negative days 0 23 25 24 25
Round trips 0 82 307 410 447
Winning / losing trades 0 / 0 13 / 69 31 / 276 75 / 335 80 / 367
Trades per day 0.00 2.73 10.23 13.67 14.90
Win rate 0.00% 15.85% 10.10% 18.29% 17.90%
Profit factor 0.00 1.31 0.54 0.50 0.50
Payoff ratio 0.00 6.96 4.78 2.23 2.31
Expectancy 0.0000 0.0847 -0.3075 -0.5086 -0.5279
Average win 0.0000 2.2488 3.5338 2.7620 2.9823
Average loss 0.0000 0.3230 0.7390 1.2408 1.2931
Average trade 0.0000 0.0847 -0.3075 -0.5086 -0.5279
Max win streak 0 2 2 4 4
Max loss streak 0 15 32 26 25
Time in market 0.00% 6.57% 21.08% 26.83% 28.58%
Turnover 0.00 0.05 0.31 0.62 0.71
Realised P&L 0.00 6.95 -94.41 -208.53 -235.97
Unrealised P&L 0.00 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00
Fees paid 0.00 10.56 82.81 166.02 195.87
Fee drag 0.00% 1.06% 8.28% 16.60% 19.59%
Final equity 1000.00 1006.95 905.59 791.47 764.03

5m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 0.00% 1.87% -3.73% -11.39% -13.25%
CAGR 0.00% 25.33% -36.99% -77.05% -82.26%
Buy and hold 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83%
Edge vs B&H -21.83% -19.96% -25.55% -33.22% -35.08%
Volatility (ann.) 0.00% 5.39% 13.99% 19.79% 22.16%
Sharpe 0.00 4.22 -3.23 -7.34 -7.69
Sortino 0.00 5.74 -3.57 -7.99 -8.35
Calmar 0.00 29.10 -4.80 -4.79 -4.64
Omega 0.00 1.23 0.91 0.86 0.86
Max drawdown 0.00% 0.87% 7.70% 16.07% 17.73%
Ulcer index 0.0000 0.0053 0.0435 0.0822 0.0937
Drawdown episodes 0 12 12 15 15
Longest underwater (days) 0.0 14.2 21.7 21.7 21.7
Recovery factor 0.00 2.15 -0.48 -0.71 -0.75
VaR 95% 0.000% -0.191% -0.806% -1.339% -1.462%
VaR 99% 0.000% -0.201% -0.885% -1.820% -1.488%
CVaR 95% 0.000% -0.196% -0.846% -1.580% -1.475%
Skew 0.00 3.61 3.02 2.47 2.54
Excess kurtosis 0.00 13.07 9.05 6.80 6.96
Best day 0.00% 1.99% 4.10% 5.10% 5.37%
Worst day 0.00% -0.20% -0.88% -1.82% -1.49%
Positive days 0 5 4 5 5
Negative days 0 25 26 25 25
Round trips 0 55 180 247 271
Winning / losing trades 0 / 0 8 / 47 14 / 166 33 / 214 41 / 230
Trades per day 0.00 1.83 6.00 8.23 9.03
Win rate 0.00% 14.55% 7.78% 13.36% 15.13%
Profit factor 0.00 2.14 0.73 0.61 0.60
Payoff ratio 0.00 12.56 8.63 3.96 3.38
Expectancy 0.0000 0.3405 -0.2070 -0.4613 -0.4890
Average win 0.0000 4.3989 7.1224 5.4311 4.9139
Average loss 0.0000 0.3503 0.8251 1.3699 1.4521
Average trade 0.0000 0.3405 -0.2070 -0.4613 -0.4890
Max win streak 0 3 2 3 2
Max loss streak 0 11 36 29 25
Time in market 0.00% 7.61% 20.53% 26.64% 28.95%
Turnover 0.00 0.05 0.24 0.47 0.54
Realised P&L 0.00 18.73 -37.26 -113.94 -132.51
Unrealised P&L 0.00 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00
Fees paid 0.00 6.97 47.76 105.84 124.62
Fee drag 0.00% 0.70% 4.78% 10.58% 12.46%
Final equity 1000.00 1018.73 962.74 886.06 867.49

Every number on this page is read from the run record that produced it — the audit pipeline writes the page and the record together, so the two cannot drift apart.

With the break-even guard WARN · 4 warn

Exits: no exit below average entry plus fees, stops included

The metric set the portfolio dashboard reports, computed per cell so a backtested configuration and a running one read on the same axes. Portfolio-level measures (concentration, pairwise correlation, beta against a benchmark) are omitted: one strategy on one pair has no cross-sectional structure to measure, and printing a null would imply the number exists.

1m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 0.00% 1.87% 5.36% 9.02% 12.07%
CAGR 0.00% 25.35% 88.86% 185.85% 300.19%
Buy and hold 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88%
Edge vs B&H -21.88% -20.01% -16.52% -12.87% -9.81%
Volatility (ann.) 0.00% 10.89% 23.02% 31.25% 36.22%
Sharpe 0.00 2.13 2.88 3.52 4.01
Sortino 0.00 2.21 2.85 3.49 4.00
Calmar 0.00 10.96 18.11 31.71 47.23
Omega 0.00 1.01 1.02 1.02 1.02
Max drawdown 0.00% 2.31% 4.91% 5.86% 6.36%
Ulcer index 0.0000 0.0058 0.0178 0.0226 0.0292
Drawdown episodes 0 43 38 52 59
Longest underwater (days) 0.0 9.6 9.8 9.7 9.7
Recovery factor 0.00 0.81 1.09 1.54 1.90
VaR 95% 0.000% -0.657% -1.224% -1.523% -2.164%
VaR 99% 0.000% -0.818% -1.238% -1.814% -3.638%
CVaR 95% 0.000% -0.738% -1.231% -1.669% -2.901%
Skew 0.00 1.12 1.47 1.45 0.99
Excess kurtosis 0.00 3.17 2.85 2.24 0.91
Best day 0.00% 1.70% 3.92% 5.29% 5.86%
Worst day 0.00% -0.82% -1.24% -1.81% -3.64%
Positive days 0 19 16 16 16
Negative days 0 11 14 14 14
Round trips 0 35 27 36 42
Winning / losing trades 0 / 0 35 / 0 27 / 0 36 / 0 42 / 0
Trades per day 0.00 1.17 0.90 1.20 1.40
Win rate 0.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor 0.00 ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio 0.00 ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 0.0000 1.0043 3.5163 3.9352 4.2479
Average win 0.0000 1.0043 3.5163 3.9352 4.2479
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 0.0000 1.0043 3.5163 3.9352 4.2479
Max win streak 0 35 27 36 42
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 0.00% 81.92% 97.95% 97.72% 97.31%
Turnover 0.00 0.04 0.09 0.14 0.18
Realised P&L 0.00 35.15 94.94 141.67 178.41
Unrealised P&L 0.00 -16.41 -41.29 -51.51 -57.68
Fees paid 0.00 8.71 14.52 21.49 27.57
Fee drag 0.00% 0.87% 1.45% 2.15% 2.76%
Final equity 1000.00 1018.74 1053.65 1090.16 1120.73

3m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 0.00% 2.67% 9.48% 8.83% 10.12%
CAGR 0.00% 37.87% 201.09% 179.99% 223.32%
Buy and hold 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86%
Edge vs B&H -21.86% -19.19% -12.38% -13.03% -11.74%
Volatility (ann.) 0.00% 7.37% 22.28% 30.49% 34.63%
Sharpe 0.00 4.39 5.06 3.53 3.56
Sortino 0.00 4.40 5.18 3.54 3.55
Calmar 0.00 20.01 43.85 27.78 32.16
Omega 0.00 1.05 1.04 1.03 1.03
Max drawdown 0.00% 1.89% 4.59% 6.48% 6.94%
Ulcer index 0.0000 0.0081 0.0194 0.0294 0.0323
Drawdown episodes 0 25 46 41 44
Longest underwater (days) 0.0 21.7 8.2 18.0 18.0
Recovery factor 0.00 1.41 2.07 1.36 1.46
VaR 95% 0.000% -0.507% -1.584% -1.958% -2.129%
VaR 99% 0.000% -0.828% -2.552% -3.140% -3.407%
CVaR 95% 0.000% -0.667% -2.068% -2.549% -2.768%
Skew 0.00 0.95 1.75 1.06 1.14
Excess kurtosis 0.00 2.10 3.91 1.34 1.50
Best day 0.00% 1.35% 5.91% 5.50% 6.61%
Worst day 0.00% -0.83% -2.55% -3.14% -3.41%
Positive days 0 17 15 15 14
Negative days 0 12 14 14 15
Round trips 0 21 22 32 31
Winning / losing trades 0 / 0 21 / 0 22 / 0 32 / 0 31 / 0
Trades per day 0.00 0.70 0.73 1.07 1.03
Win rate 0.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor 0.00 ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio 0.00 ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 0.0000 1.2788 5.7428 4.5328 5.2871
Average win 0.0000 1.2788 5.7428 4.5328 5.2871
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 0.0000 1.2788 5.7428 4.5328 5.2871
Max win streak 0 21 22 32 31
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 0.00% 71.35% 94.28% 94.33% 94.91%
Turnover 0.00 0.03 0.13 0.15 0.16
Realised P&L 0.00 26.86 126.34 145.05 163.90
Unrealised P&L 0.00 -0.11 -31.52 -56.75 -62.65
Fees paid 0.00 4.68 12.05 19.40 20.53
Fee drag 0.00% 0.47% 1.21% 1.94% 2.05%
Final equity 1000.00 1026.74 1094.82 1088.30 1101.25

5m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 0.00% 1.84% 10.23% 11.08% 11.85%
CAGR 0.00% 24.84% 227.03% 259.08% 290.68%
Buy and hold 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83%
Edge vs B&H -21.83% -19.99% -11.60% -10.75% -9.98%
Volatility (ann.) 0.00% 6.44% 20.41% 30.19% 33.55%
Sharpe 0.00 3.48 5.91 4.39 4.23
Sortino 0.00 4.10 6.38 4.55 4.36
Calmar 0.00 21.56 61.18 39.89 39.96
Omega 0.00 1.05 1.07 1.05 1.05
Max drawdown 0.00% 1.15% 3.71% 6.49% 7.27%
Ulcer index 0.0000 0.0054 0.0179 0.0282 0.0310
Drawdown episodes 0 18 29 35 41
Longest underwater (days) 0.0 18.6 13.5 9.6 8.4
Recovery factor 0.00 1.60 2.76 1.71 1.63
VaR 95% 0.000% -0.372% -1.021% -1.908% -2.075%
VaR 99% 0.000% -0.495% -1.735% -3.204% -3.477%
CVaR 95% 0.000% -0.434% -1.378% -2.556% -2.776%
Skew 0.00 3.41 1.89 1.40 1.45
Excess kurtosis 0.00 13.73 3.45 2.38 3.62
Best day 0.00% 2.19% 5.00% 6.82% 7.60%
Worst day 0.00% -0.50% -1.73% -3.20% -3.48%
Positive days 0 14 17 16 18
Negative days 0 16 13 14 12
Round trips 0 13 14 18 23
Winning / losing trades 0 / 0 13 / 0 14 / 0 18 / 0 23 / 0
Trades per day 0.00 0.43 0.47 0.60 0.77
Win rate 0.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor 0.00 ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio 0.00 ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 0.0000 2.0806 9.6190 9.5715 8.0957
Average win 0.0000 2.0806 9.6190 9.5715 8.0957
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 0.0000 2.0806 9.6190 9.5715 8.0957
Max win streak 0 13 14 18 23
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 0.00% 80.28% 93.42% 95.02% 93.28%
Turnover 0.00 0.03 0.13 0.17 0.19
Realised P&L 0.00 27.05 134.67 172.29 186.20
Unrealised P&L 0.00 -8.65 -32.38 -61.50 -67.68
Fees paid 0.00 2.63 7.65 11.26 15.65
Fee drag 0.00% 0.26% 0.77% 1.13% 1.56%
Final equity 1000.00 1018.40 1102.29 1110.79 1118.52

Every number on this page is read from the run record that produced it — the audit pipeline writes the page and the record together, so the two cannot drift apart.

What the guard is, and what a better number under it means. The break-even guard refuses any exit below average entry plus fees. It cannot improve a strategy's judgement — it can only stop it selling at a loss, which means holding the position instead. Across the pack that turns a strategy that churned into one that buys and waits: trade counts collapse and time in market rises towards 100%. In a window where the asset itself rose, that reads as a much better return while being strictly less of a strategy.

So read the return next to round trips, time in market and edge vs buy and hold. The last of those is the one that matters: not one strategy in this matrix beat simply holding the asset, in either run.

Ignore the win rate and the profit factor under the guard. Both count closed trades only, and the guard closes nothing at a loss — in all 101 guarded runs the number of losing closed trades is exactly zero. So the win rate goes to 100% and the profit factor becomes undefined for arithmetic reasons, while the losses sit in the position that is still open. The unrealised row is where they went.