← Bollinger_Band_Ride

Bollinger_Band_Ride — metrics

Unguarded: PASSGuarded: FAIL · 1 failDirectionalgunbot-quant

BTCUSDT · 2026-08-13 01:50 → 2026-09-12 01:50 UTC (30 days) · 0.03% fee + 2 bps slippage · 1,000 quote, one figure for every cell

The same document for both runs of the same measurement — first as the strategy ships, then with the break-even guard. Everything else about the two runs is identical.

As it ships PASS

Exits: the strategy's own exits, stops included

The metric set the portfolio dashboard reports, computed per cell so a backtested configuration and a running one read on the same axes. Portfolio-level measures (concentration, pairwise correlation, beta against a benchmark) are omitted: one strategy on one pair has no cross-sectional structure to measure, and printing a null would imply the number exists.

1m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return -0.78% -9.70% -39.45% -59.30% -67.58%
CAGR -9.14% -71.09% -99.78% -100.00% -100.00%
Buy and hold 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88%
Edge vs B&H -22.67% -31.58% -61.33% -81.18% -89.47%
Volatility (ann.) 0.53% 7.40% 15.95% 22.34% 25.15%
Sharpe -18.21 -16.74 -38.18 -48.85 -54.37
Sortino -7.16 -10.59 -25.58 -33.79 -39.59
Calmar -11.65 -7.33 -2.52 -1.69 -1.48
Omega 0.46 0.71 0.68 0.69 0.67
Max drawdown 0.78% 9.70% 39.53% 59.30% 67.58%
Ulcer index 0.0053 0.0515 0.2290 0.3589 0.4181
Drawdown episodes 1 1 1 1 1
Longest underwater (days) 29.2 29.9 30.0 30.0 30.0
Recovery factor -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00
VaR 95% -0.107% -0.638% -2.721% -4.637% -5.659%
VaR 99% -0.141% -0.641% -2.721% -5.190% -6.029%
CVaR 95% -0.124% -0.640% -2.721% -4.914% -5.844%
Skew -1.77 3.86 2.17 1.07 1.23
Excess kurtosis 2.98 15.77 6.62 1.30 1.58
Best day 0.00% 1.95% 1.71% 0.55% 0.62%
Worst day -0.14% -0.64% -2.72% -5.19% -6.03%
Positive days 1 2 1 2 2
Negative days 22 28 29 28 28
Round trips 70 646 1,255 1,491 1,713
Winning / losing trades 2 / 68 38 / 608 89 / 1,166 192 / 1,299 215 / 1,498
Trades per day 2.33 21.53 41.83 49.70 57.10
Win rate 2.86% 5.88% 7.09% 12.88% 12.55%
Profit factor 0.07 0.31 0.28 0.30 0.29
Payoff ratio 2.50 5.02 3.69 2.06 2.05
Expectancy -0.1121 -0.1501 -0.3143 -0.3977 -0.3945
Average win 0.3121 1.1678 1.7356 1.3475 1.3078
Average loss 0.1246 0.2325 0.4708 0.6557 0.6389
Average trade -0.1121 -0.1501 -0.3143 -0.3977 -0.3945
Max win streak 1 1 2 3 3
Max loss streak 30 80 105 56 56
Time in market 1.22% 13.91% 29.41% 36.42% 40.53%
Turnover 0.01 0.19 0.70 1.11 1.24
Realised P&L -7.85 -96.97 -394.49 -592.98 -675.84
Unrealised P&L -0.00 0.00 -0.00 0.00 -0.00
Fees paid 5.14 79.48 290.68 449.23 507.97
Fee drag 0.51% 7.95% 29.07% 44.92% 50.80%
Final equity 992.15 903.03 605.51 407.02 324.16

3m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return -0.23% -2.59% -14.10% -24.73% -29.69%
CAGR -2.79% -27.37% -84.26% -96.84% -98.62%
Buy and hold 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86%
Edge vs B&H -22.09% -24.45% -35.96% -46.59% -51.55%
Volatility (ann.) 0.54% 5.39% 14.36% 20.85% 23.57%
Sharpe -5.28 -5.90 -12.80 -16.47 -18.07
Sortino -2.02 -3.15 -8.17 -11.57 -13.66
Calmar -11.46 -7.11 -5.37 -3.77 -3.22
Omega 0.71 0.86 0.81 0.81 0.80
Max drawdown 0.24% 3.85% 15.68% 25.67% 30.63%
Ulcer index 0.0016 0.0212 0.0848 0.1349 0.1580
Drawdown episodes 4 10 10 6 6
Longest underwater (days) 22.7 21.7 21.7 21.7 21.7
Recovery factor -0.95 -0.67 -0.90 -0.96 -0.97
VaR 95% -0.039% -0.256% -1.174% -2.402% -2.955%
VaR 99% -0.044% -0.295% -1.413% -2.599% -3.531%
CVaR 95% -0.042% -0.276% -1.293% -2.501% -3.243%
Skew -0.68 4.33 2.58 1.80 1.59
Excess kurtosis 0.11 18.88 6.95 3.36 2.99
Best day 0.02% 1.63% 3.09% 3.47% 3.79%
Worst day -0.04% -0.30% -1.41% -2.60% -3.53%
Positive days 3 4 4 3 3
Negative days 14 25 25 26 26
Round trips 23 223 434 521 611
Winning / losing trades 4 / 19 24 / 199 39 / 395 81 / 440 97 / 514
Trades per day 0.77 7.43 14.47 17.37 20.37
Win rate 17.39% 10.76% 8.99% 15.55% 15.88%
Profit factor 0.19 0.56 0.46 0.48 0.48
Payoff ratio 0.88 4.60 4.68 2.61 2.57
Expectancy -0.1010 -0.1163 -0.3248 -0.4746 -0.4860
Average win 0.1328 1.3498 3.1092 2.8217 2.8756
Average loss 0.1502 0.2931 0.6639 1.0814 1.1203
Average trade -0.1010 -0.1163 -0.3248 -0.4746 -0.4860
Max win streak 2 2 2 3 4
Max loss streak 7 42 27 28 33
Time in market 1.14% 14.92% 30.15% 36.22% 41.07%
Turnover 0.00 0.09 0.38 0.70 0.85
Realised P&L -2.32 -25.94 -140.97 -247.25 -296.92
Unrealised P&L 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fees paid 1.60 26.82 110.98 204.54 252.88
Fee drag 0.16% 2.68% 11.10% 20.45% 25.29%
Final equity 997.68 974.06 859.03 752.75 703.08

5m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return -0.17% 1.14% -5.23% -13.36% -14.34%
CAGR -2.10% 14.76% -48.00% -82.53% -84.79%
Buy and hold 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83%
Edge vs B&H -22.00% -20.69% -27.06% -35.19% -36.17%
Volatility (ann.) 0.69% 7.01% 15.77% 21.47% 24.04%
Sharpe -3.07 2.00 -4.07 -8.02 -7.72
Sortino -1.18 1.18 -2.85 -5.79 -5.95
Calmar -5.82 6.80 -4.57 -4.30 -4.30
Omega 0.80 1.08 0.91 0.87 0.88
Max drawdown 0.36% 2.17% 10.50% 19.21% 19.71%
Ulcer index 0.0022 0.0116 0.0529 0.0960 0.0993
Drawdown episodes 7 11 19 19 17
Longest underwater (days) 22.7 21.7 21.7 21.7 21.7
Recovery factor -0.48 0.52 -0.50 -0.70 -0.73
VaR 95% -0.041% -0.201% -1.189% -1.739% -1.882%
VaR 99% -0.053% -0.207% -1.213% -1.965% -2.276%
CVaR 95% -0.047% -0.204% -1.201% -1.852% -2.079%
Skew 1.22 2.85 2.43 2.19 2.13
Excess kurtosis 5.35 7.22 5.89 4.91 4.75
Best day 0.08% 1.96% 4.13% 4.85% 5.29%
Worst day -0.05% -0.21% -1.21% -1.96% -2.28%
Positive days 4 3 6 5 5
Negative days 12 27 24 25 25
Round trips 16 132 260 320 362
Winning / losing trades 3 / 13 13 / 119 24 / 236 45 / 275 59 / 303
Trades per day 0.53 4.40 8.67 10.67 12.07
Win rate 18.75% 9.85% 9.23% 14.06% 16.30%
Profit factor 0.43 1.28 0.72 0.62 0.65
Payoff ratio 1.87 11.76 7.09 3.80 3.34
Expectancy -0.1090 0.0862 -0.2013 -0.4175 -0.3962
Average win 0.4427 3.9481 5.6437 4.8691 4.5112
Average loss 0.2363 0.3357 0.7957 1.2826 1.3517
Average trade -0.1090 0.0862 -0.2013 -0.4175 -0.3962
Max win streak 2 2 2 2 3
Max loss streak 9 31 54 23 22
Time in market 1.05% 15.61% 30.16% 36.42% 40.71%
Turnover 0.00 0.09 0.32 0.57 0.68
Realised P&L -1.74 11.38 -52.33 -133.61 -143.42
Unrealised P&L -0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.00
Fees paid 0.95 15.61 68.94 133.36 161.89
Fee drag 0.09% 1.56% 6.89% 13.34% 16.19%
Final equity 998.26 1011.38 947.67 866.39 856.58

Every number on this page is read from the run record that produced it — the audit pipeline writes the page and the record together, so the two cannot drift apart.

With the break-even guard FAIL · 1 fail

Exits: no exit below average entry plus fees, stops included

The metric set the portfolio dashboard reports, computed per cell so a backtested configuration and a running one read on the same axes. Portfolio-level measures (concentration, pairwise correlation, beta against a benchmark) are omitted: one strategy on one pair has no cross-sectional structure to measure, and printing a null would imply the number exists.

1m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 0.23% 3.09% 5.16% 12.76% 14.59%
CAGR 2.83% 44.79% 84.41% 330.85% 424.44%
Buy and hold 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88%
Edge vs B&H -21.65% -18.79% -16.72% -9.13% -7.29%
Volatility (ann.) 2.94% 9.28% 23.73% 30.31% 34.84%
Sharpe 0.96 4.04 2.70 4.97 4.93
Sortino 0.75 4.38 2.68 4.98 4.92
Calmar 3.69 26.16 14.41 57.40 69.57
Omega 1.01 1.03 1.01 1.03 1.02
Max drawdown 0.77% 1.71% 5.86% 5.76% 6.10%
Ulcer index 0.0031 0.0066 0.0202 0.0237 0.0261
Drawdown episodes 25 38 42 72 76
Longest underwater (days) 10.2 9.7 9.7 9.7 9.6
Recovery factor 0.30 1.80 0.88 2.21 2.39
VaR 95% -0.263% -0.399% -1.274% -1.990% -2.164%
VaR 99% -0.453% -0.517% -1.402% -3.353% -3.638%
CVaR 95% -0.358% -0.458% -1.338% -2.671% -2.901%
Skew -0.07 3.49 1.91 1.32 1.17
Excess kurtosis 3.44 14.07 4.45 2.30 1.62
Best day 0.48% 2.84% 4.60% 6.25% 6.82%
Worst day -0.45% -0.52% -1.40% -3.35% -3.64%
Positive days 17 18 16 16 16
Negative days 11 12 14 14 14
Round trips 22 28 30 41 45
Winning / losing trades 22 / 0 28 / 0 30 / 0 41 / 0 45 / 0
Trades per day 0.73 0.93 1.00 1.37 1.50
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 0.3220 1.6103 3.4111 3.8820 3.9565
Average win 0.3220 1.6103 3.4111 3.8820 3.9565
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 0.3220 1.6103 3.4111 3.8820 3.9565
Max win streak 22 28 30 41 45
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 60.70% 96.30% 98.74% 98.44% 98.41%
Turnover 0.01 0.05 0.10 0.16 0.18
Realised P&L 7.08 45.09 102.33 159.16 178.04
Unrealised P&L -4.78 -14.20 -50.75 -31.61 -32.13
Fees paid 2.99 7.11 16.09 24.64 29.69
Fee drag 0.30% 0.71% 1.61% 2.46% 2.97%
Final equity 1002.30 1030.89 1051.59 1127.55 1145.92

3m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 0.19% 3.25% 8.37% 12.33% 9.69%
CAGR 2.33% 47.52% 165.85% 311.42% 208.01%
Buy and hold 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86%
Edge vs B&H -21.67% -18.61% -13.49% -9.53% -12.17%
Volatility (ann.) 2.56% 8.03% 24.60% 32.87% 35.09%
Sharpe 0.91 4.88 4.10 4.47 3.38
Sortino 0.62 4.93 4.01 4.41 3.36
Calmar 3.09 27.37 32.04 49.14 29.74
Omega 1.01 1.05 1.04 1.04 1.03
Max drawdown 0.75% 1.74% 5.18% 6.34% 7.00%
Ulcer index 0.0025 0.0080 0.0207 0.0255 0.0337
Drawdown episodes 14 21 43 56 42
Longest underwater (days) 14.3 21.7 8.2 8.2 18.0
Recovery factor 0.25 1.87 1.62 1.95 1.38
VaR 95% -0.259% -0.507% -1.804% -1.960% -2.129%
VaR 99% -0.424% -0.828% -2.208% -2.528% -3.407%
CVaR 95% -0.342% -0.667% -2.006% -2.244% -2.768%
Skew 0.56 3.01 1.77 1.10 1.27
Excess kurtosis 4.92 11.23 3.97 1.01 1.90
Best day 0.56% 2.91% 5.91% 5.40% 6.43%
Worst day -0.42% -0.83% -2.21% -2.53% -3.41%
Positive days 15 16 16 16 15
Negative days 6 13 13 13 14
Round trips 8 25 28 30 25
Winning / losing trades 8 / 0 25 / 0 28 / 0 30 / 0 25 / 0
Trades per day 0.27 0.83 0.93 1.00 0.83
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 0.2367 1.6246 4.6567 6.1226 6.3942
Average win 0.2367 1.6246 4.6567 6.1226 6.3942
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 0.2367 1.6246 4.6567 6.1226 6.3942
Max win streak 8 25 28 30 25
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 45.62% 89.34% 94.34% 95.83% 98.04%
Turnover 0.00 0.04 0.13 0.18 0.16
Realised P&L 1.89 40.62 130.39 183.68 159.85
Unrealised P&L -0.00 -8.15 -46.71 -60.41 -62.99
Fees paid 0.78 5.66 15.07 18.52 16.62
Fee drag 0.08% 0.57% 1.51% 1.85% 1.66%
Final equity 1001.89 1032.47 1083.68 1123.27 1096.87

5m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return -0.32% 3.76% 10.50% 9.88% 12.42%
CAGR -3.86% 56.70% 237.05% 214.72% 315.58%
Buy and hold 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83%
Edge vs B&H -22.15% -18.07% -11.33% -11.95% -9.41%
Volatility (ann.) 2.39% 9.33% 20.83% 33.09% 36.68%
Sharpe -1.63 4.86 5.94 3.63 4.07
Sortino -1.27 5.06 6.25 3.66 4.08
Calmar -6.18 28.54 59.39 32.65 44.10
Omega 0.98 1.06 1.07 1.04 1.04
Max drawdown 0.62% 1.99% 3.99% 6.58% 7.16%
Ulcer index 0.0027 0.0105 0.0204 0.0288 0.0318
Drawdown episodes 10 19 34 36 41
Longest underwater (days) 18.0 21.7 21.7 8.4 8.4
Recovery factor -0.52 1.89 2.63 1.50 1.74
VaR 95% -0.217% -0.494% -1.021% -1.909% -2.075%
VaR 99% -0.289% -0.845% -1.735% -3.205% -3.477%
CVaR 95% -0.253% -0.670% -1.378% -2.557% -2.776%
Skew -0.26 1.85 2.25 1.33 1.38
Excess kurtosis 0.94 4.48 5.05 2.73 2.79
Best day 0.25% 2.25% 5.50% 6.44% 7.69%
Worst day -0.29% -0.85% -1.73% -3.21% -3.48%
Positive days 13 15 17 17 16
Negative days 10 15 13 13 14
Round trips 7 16 17 21 22
Winning / losing trades 7 / 0 16 / 0 17 / 0 21 / 0 22 / 0
Trades per day 0.23 0.53 0.57 0.70 0.73
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 0.2413 2.8660 8.0873 7.6025 8.7382
Average win 0.2413 2.8660 8.0873 7.6025 8.7382
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 0.2413 2.8660 8.0873 7.6025 8.7382
Max win streak 7 16 17 21 22
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 63.03% 91.26% 95.39% 95.38% 95.52%
Turnover 0.00 0.05 0.14 0.16 0.19
Realised P&L 1.69 45.86 137.48 159.65 192.24
Unrealised P&L -4.92 -8.25 -32.46 -60.83 -68.03
Fees paid 0.58 3.56 9.17 12.95 14.94
Fee drag 0.06% 0.36% 0.92% 1.29% 1.49%
Final equity 996.77 1037.61 1105.03 1098.82 1124.21

Every number on this page is read from the run record that produced it — the audit pipeline writes the page and the record together, so the two cannot drift apart.

What the guard is, and what a better number under it means. The break-even guard refuses any exit below average entry plus fees. It cannot improve a strategy's judgement — it can only stop it selling at a loss, which means holding the position instead. Across the pack that turns a strategy that churned into one that buys and waits: trade counts collapse and time in market rises towards 100%. In a window where the asset itself rose, that reads as a much better return while being strictly less of a strategy.

So read the return next to round trips, time in market and edge vs buy and hold. The last of those is the one that matters: not one strategy in this matrix beat simply holding the asset, in either run.

Ignore the win rate and the profit factor under the guard. Both count closed trades only, and the guard closes nothing at a loss — in all 101 guarded runs the number of losing closed trades is exactly zero. So the win rate goes to 100% and the profit factor becomes undefined for arithmetic reasons, while the losses sit in the position that is still open. The unrealised row is where they went.