← Bollinger_MR_Regime

Bollinger_MR_Regime — metrics

Unguarded: PASSGuarded: FAIL · 3 failDirectionalgunbot-quant

BTCUSDT · 2026-08-13 01:50 → 2026-09-12 01:50 UTC (30 days) · 0.03% fee + 2 bps slippage · 1,000 quote, one figure for every cell

The same document for both runs of the same measurement — first as the strategy ships, then with the break-even guard. Everything else about the two runs is identical.

As it ships PASS

Exits: the strategy's own exits, stops included

The metric set the portfolio dashboard reports, computed per cell so a backtested configuration and a running one read on the same axes. Portfolio-level measures (concentration, pairwise correlation, beta against a benchmark) are omitted: one strategy on one pair has no cross-sectional structure to measure, and printing a null would imply the number exists.

1m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return -0.30% -11.35% -54.99% -59.52% -47.65%
CAGR -3.58% -76.92% -99.99% -100.00% -99.96%
Buy and hold 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88%
Edge vs B&H -22.18% -33.23% -76.87% -81.40% -69.53%
Volatility (ann.) 0.57% 3.04% 12.55% 24.72% 30.43%
Sharpe -6.41 -48.22 -77.32 -44.39 -25.72
Sortino -3.98 -27.68 -62.28 -40.02 -24.38
Calmar -9.34 -6.78 -1.82 -1.68 -2.09
Omega 0.55 0.53 0.58 0.78 0.88
Max drawdown 0.38% 11.35% 54.99% 59.61% 47.76%
Ulcer index 0.0023 0.0622 0.3415 0.3721 0.2836
Drawdown episodes 24 1 1 2 2
Longest underwater (days) 20.9 29.7 30.0 30.0 30.0
Recovery factor -0.78 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00
VaR 95% -0.122% -0.796% -4.101% -4.774% -4.128%
VaR 99% -0.127% -1.143% -4.422% -4.957% -5.064%
CVaR 95% -0.125% -0.969% -4.262% -4.865% -4.596%
Skew -1.83 -0.63 0.36 0.41 0.58
Excess kurtosis 3.72 1.17 -0.29 -0.92 -0.26
Best day 0.05% 0.08% -0.38% -0.14% 1.92%
Worst day -0.13% -1.14% -4.42% -4.96% -5.06%
Positive days 13 2 0 0 5
Negative days 13 28 30 30 25
Round trips 33 696 1,884 1,358 884
Winning / losing trades 10 / 23 94 / 602 244 / 1,640 317 / 1,041 244 / 640
Trades per day 1.10 23.20 62.80 45.27 29.47
Win rate 30.30% 13.51% 12.95% 23.34% 27.60%
Profit factor 0.40 0.19 0.23 0.40 0.51
Payoff ratio 0.92 1.21 1.52 1.32 1.34
Expectancy -0.0907 -0.1631 -0.2919 -0.4384 -0.5392
Average win 0.2011 0.2822 0.6570 1.2675 2.0423
Average loss 0.2175 0.2327 0.4330 0.9578 1.5233
Average trade -0.0907 -0.1631 -0.2919 -0.4384 -0.5392
Max win streak 2 4 4 4 6
Max loss streak 8 50 64 41 33
Time in market 0.24% 11.10% 40.89% 62.51% 77.27%
Turnover 0.01 0.17 0.87 1.40 1.47
Realised P&L -2.99 -113.53 -549.85 -595.31 -476.62
Unrealised P&L -0.00 -0.00 -0.06 0.24 0.24
Fees paid 1.87 74.96 381.71 426.60 351.92
Fee drag 0.19% 7.50% 38.17% 42.67% 35.20%
Final equity 997.01 886.47 450.09 404.68 523.37

3m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return -0.15% -2.79% -24.52% -22.74% -15.71%
CAGR -1.85% -29.11% -96.74% -95.67% -87.50%
Buy and hold 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86%
Edge vs B&H -22.01% -24.65% -46.38% -44.60% -37.57%
Volatility (ann.) 0.32% 2.63% 11.65% 23.21% 29.09%
Sharpe -5.90 -13.09 -29.31 -13.41 -7.00
Sortino -3.31 -9.24 -25.47 -12.54 -6.72
Calmar -11.80 -10.15 -3.92 -4.13 -5.26
Omega 0.49 0.78 0.72 0.88 0.94
Max drawdown 0.16% 2.87% 24.66% 23.15% 16.64%
Ulcer index 0.0010 0.0155 0.1373 0.1265 0.0806
Drawdown episodes 2 1 4 4 16
Longest underwater (days) 20.9 29.7 29.7 29.9 29.0
Recovery factor -0.98 -0.97 -0.99 -0.98 -0.94
VaR 95% -0.030% -0.257% -1.829% -2.380% -2.572%
VaR 99% -0.037% -0.260% -2.067% -3.079% -3.728%
CVaR 95% -0.034% -0.259% -1.948% -2.729% -3.150%
Skew -0.93 0.33 0.07 -0.01 0.07
Excess kurtosis 0.40 -0.60 -0.86 -0.64 -0.42
Best day 0.02% 0.18% 0.29% 1.00% 2.38%
Worst day -0.04% -0.26% -2.07% -3.08% -3.73%
Positive days 11 4 2 6 8
Negative days 11 25 27 23 21
Round trips 12 221 568 366 260
Winning / losing trades 2 / 10 50 / 171 96 / 472 109 / 257 93 / 167
Trades per day 0.40 7.37 18.93 12.20 8.67
Win rate 16.67% 22.62% 16.90% 29.78% 35.77%
Profit factor 0.16 0.49 0.34 0.59 0.71
Payoff ratio 0.80 1.68 1.65 1.38 1.28
Expectancy -0.1276 -0.1262 -0.4317 -0.6213 -0.6090
Average win 0.1465 0.5357 1.2891 2.9677 4.1790
Average loss 0.1824 0.3197 0.7817 2.1434 3.2753
Average trade -0.1276 -0.1262 -0.4317 -0.6213 -0.6090
Max win streak 2 4 4 3 4
Max loss streak 7 18 31 12 10
Time in market 0.26% 12.34% 42.83% 62.67% 77.00%
Turnover 0.00 0.08 0.49 0.87 0.94
Realised P&L -1.53 -27.88 -245.19 -227.38 -158.33
Unrealised P&L 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.29
Fees paid 0.67 24.60 146.72 157.61 134.08
Fee drag 0.07% 2.46% 14.67% 15.76% 13.41%
Final equity 998.47 972.12 754.81 772.62 842.71

5m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return -0.05% -2.00% -14.95% -11.90% -13.25%
CAGR -0.55% -21.83% -86.05% -78.59% -82.27%
Buy and hold 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83%
Edge vs B&H -21.87% -23.83% -36.77% -33.73% -35.08%
Volatility (ann.) 0.34% 2.42% 10.93% 22.65% 29.05%
Sharpe -1.63 -10.15 -17.97 -6.69 -5.81
Sortino -1.00 -7.20 -15.84 -6.55 -5.57
Calmar -3.58 -10.19 -5.72 -5.70 -5.66
Omega 0.84 0.79 0.77 0.92 0.94
Max drawdown 0.15% 2.14% 15.05% 13.78% 14.55%
Ulcer index 0.0004 0.0112 0.0814 0.0657 0.0677
Drawdown episodes 30 4 1 17 25
Longest underwater (days) 10.8 28.9 29.7 20.8 20.9
Recovery factor -0.29 -0.94 -0.99 -0.86 -0.91
VaR 95% -0.028% -0.219% -1.297% -2.419% -2.325%
VaR 99% -0.060% -0.245% -2.070% -2.888% -2.975%
CVaR 95% -0.044% -0.232% -1.684% -2.653% -2.650%
Skew 1.38 -0.25 -0.00 -0.25 0.38
Excess kurtosis 8.98 -0.74 0.26 -0.28 -0.25
Best day 0.08% 0.13% 0.83% 1.79% 2.95%
Worst day -0.06% -0.25% -2.07% -2.89% -2.98%
Positive days 6 7 5 9 9
Negative days 8 22 25 21 21
Round trips 10 131 322 219 147
Winning / losing trades 4 / 6 31 / 100 69 / 253 73 / 146 54 / 93
Trades per day 0.33 4.37 10.73 7.30 4.90
Win rate 40.00% 23.66% 21.43% 33.33% 36.73%
Profit factor 0.72 0.47 0.41 0.70 0.70
Payoff ratio 1.08 1.52 1.49 1.40 1.20
Expectancy -0.0452 -0.1529 -0.4641 -0.5482 -0.8668
Average win 0.2932 0.5752 1.4876 3.8765 5.4697
Average loss 0.2708 0.3787 0.9964 2.7606 4.5461
Average trade -0.0452 -0.1529 -0.4641 -0.5482 -0.8668
Max win streak 2 3 4 5 6
Max loss streak 3 10 16 8 8
Time in market 0.45% 13.31% 41.52% 62.39% 76.30%
Turnover 0.00 0.06 0.35 0.69 0.72
Realised P&L -0.45 -20.04 -149.46 -120.06 -127.42
Unrealised P&L 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.07 -5.09
Fees paid 0.55 14.41 88.82 101.44 76.83
Fee drag 0.05% 1.44% 8.88% 10.14% 7.68%
Final equity 999.55 979.96 850.54 881.01 867.24

Every number on this page is read from the run record that produced it — the audit pipeline writes the page and the record together, so the two cannot drift apart.

With the break-even guard FAIL · 3 fail

Exits: no exit below average entry plus fees, stops included

The metric set the portfolio dashboard reports, computed per cell so a backtested configuration and a running one read on the same axes. Portfolio-level measures (concentration, pairwise correlation, beta against a benchmark) are omitted: one strategy on one pair has no cross-sectional structure to measure, and printing a null would imply the number exists.

1m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return -0.16% -0.11% 1.48% 3.69% 21.64%
CAGR -1.94% -1.37% 19.62% 55.32% 984.10%
Buy and hold 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88%
Edge vs B&H -22.04% -22.00% -20.40% -18.20% -0.24%
Volatility (ann.) 2.79% 4.80% 12.40% 31.92% 39.95%
Sharpe -0.69 -0.26 1.51 1.54 6.17
Sortino -0.65 -0.25 1.46 1.47 6.09
Calmar -3.64 -1.53 10.76 9.83 142.88
Omega 1.00 1.00 1.01 1.01 1.03
Max drawdown 0.53% 0.90% 1.82% 5.63% 6.89%
Ulcer index 0.0020 0.0036 0.0076 0.0259 0.0308
Drawdown episodes 168 144 147 179 127
Longest underwater (days) 8.2 8.2 8.2 10.0 8.2
Recovery factor -0.30 -0.13 0.81 0.65 3.14
VaR 95% -0.185% -0.302% -0.855% -2.008% -2.164%
VaR 99% -0.219% -0.503% -0.936% -3.355% -3.638%
CVaR 95% -0.202% -0.402% -0.896% -2.681% -2.901%
Skew 0.10 0.16 0.50 0.83 1.48
Excess kurtosis -0.21 1.09 -0.12 1.78 2.13
Best day 0.23% 0.55% 1.31% 5.37% 8.45%
Worst day -0.22% -0.50% -0.94% -3.36% -3.64%
Positive days 14 16 15 15 16
Negative days 16 14 15 15 14
Round trips 78 83 45 12 0
Winning / losing trades 78 / 0 83 / 0 45 / 0 12 / 0 0 / 0
Trades per day 2.60 2.77 1.50 0.40 0.00
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 0.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ 0.00
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ 0.00
Expectancy 0.0357 0.0747 0.6196 6.8208 0.0000
Average win 0.0357 0.0747 0.6196 6.8208 0.0000
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 0.0357 0.0747 0.6196 6.8208 0.0000
Max win streak 78 83 45 12 0
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 92.84% 92.26% 91.32% 93.50% 98.68%
Turnover 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.08 0.00
Realised P&L 2.79 6.20 27.88 81.85 0.00
Unrealised P&L -4.39 -7.34 -13.05 -45.00 216.39
Fees paid 3.96 7.37 16.68 7.21 0.30
Fee drag 0.40% 0.74% 1.67% 0.72% 0.03%
Final equity 998.35 998.79 1014.83 1036.85 1216.39

3m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 0.06% -0.07% -0.11% 7.32% 22.77%
CAGR 0.71% -0.79% -1.30% 136.12% 1113.79%
Buy and hold 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86%
Edge vs B&H -21.80% -21.93% -21.97% -14.54% 0.91%
Volatility (ann.) 2.56% 4.52% 11.91% 30.72% 38.89%
Sharpe 0.29 -0.15 -0.05 2.95 6.61
Sortino 0.29 -0.15 -0.05 2.87 6.60
Calmar 1.74 -0.90 -0.43 23.89 167.47
Omega 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.02 1.05
Max drawdown 0.41% 0.87% 3.02% 5.70% 6.65%
Ulcer index 0.0016 0.0034 0.0095 0.0211 0.0301
Drawdown episodes 119 109 122 107 84
Longest underwater (days) 6.9 8.2 8.0 8.2 8.2
Recovery factor 0.14 -0.07 -0.04 1.28 3.42
VaR 95% -0.174% -0.298% -0.725% -1.961% -2.129%
VaR 99% -0.255% -0.456% -0.854% -2.068% -3.407%
CVaR 95% -0.215% -0.377% -0.790% -2.015% -2.768%
Skew 0.17 0.01 -0.25 0.91 1.45
Excess kurtosis 0.83 0.12 -0.92 0.58 1.92
Best day 0.29% 0.46% 0.65% 4.23% 8.20%
Worst day -0.26% -0.46% -0.85% -2.07% -3.41%
Positive days 16 14 16 16 16
Negative days 13 15 13 13 13
Round trips 70 40 25 11 0
Winning / losing trades 70 / 0 40 / 0 25 / 0 11 / 0 0 / 0
Trades per day 2.33 1.33 0.83 0.37 0.00
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 0.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ 0.00
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ 0.00
Expectancy 0.0505 0.1681 0.9833 10.6989 0.0000
Average win 0.0505 0.1681 0.9833 10.6989 0.0000
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 0.0505 0.1681 0.9833 10.6989 0.0000
Max win streak 70 40 25 11 0
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 85.28% 86.97% 84.79% 88.48% 97.94%
Turnover 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.12 0.00
Realised P&L 3.54 6.72 24.58 117.69 0.00
Unrealised P&L -2.95 -7.38 -25.66 -44.52 227.73
Fees paid 3.56 3.49 8.02 6.70 0.30
Fee drag 0.36% 0.35% 0.80% 0.67% 0.03%
Final equity 1000.54 999.35 998.93 1073.16 1227.73

5m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 0.13% 0.46% 3.28% 13.29% 1.69%
CAGR 1.65% 5.74% 48.11% 356.53% 22.58%
Buy and hold 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83%
Edge vs B&H -21.69% -21.37% -18.55% -8.54% -20.14%
Volatility (ann.) 2.49% 4.25% 10.43% 29.23% 30.96%
Sharpe 0.67 1.33 3.82 5.34 0.81
Sortino 0.67 1.35 3.89 5.45 0.66
Calmar 3.94 8.38 30.26 66.94 3.33
Omega 1.01 1.01 1.05 1.06 1.01
Max drawdown 0.42% 0.68% 1.59% 5.33% 6.79%
Ulcer index 0.0016 0.0026 0.0047 0.0197 0.0288
Drawdown episodes 143 143 125 103 30
Longest underwater (days) 6.6 6.5 6.5 8.2 8.2
Recovery factor 0.32 0.67 2.06 2.50 0.25
VaR 95% -0.182% -0.307% -0.670% -1.911% -2.075%
VaR 99% -0.275% -0.438% -0.789% -2.052% -3.477%
CVaR 95% -0.228% -0.372% -0.729% -1.982% -2.776%
Skew 0.02 -0.09 0.74 0.73 0.71
Excess kurtosis 1.26 0.68 0.96 -0.01 1.99
Best day 0.30% 0.48% 1.47% 4.26% 4.63%
Worst day -0.27% -0.44% -0.79% -2.05% -3.48%
Positive days 19 19 20 18 10
Negative days 11 11 10 12 10
Round trips 57 42 32 11 0
Winning / losing trades 57 / 0 42 / 0 32 / 0 11 / 0 0 / 0
Trades per day 1.90 1.40 1.07 0.37 0.00
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 0.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ 0.00
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ 0.00
Expectancy 0.0752 0.2223 1.2889 12.0846 0.0000
Average win 0.0752 0.2223 1.2889 12.0846 0.0000
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 0.0752 0.2223 1.2889 12.0846 0.0000
Max win streak 57 42 32 11 0
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 82.11% 80.96% 77.22% 83.93% 66.21%
Turnover 0.00 0.01 0.04 0.13 0.00
Realised P&L 4.28 9.34 41.25 132.93 0.00
Unrealised P&L -2.94 -4.74 -8.44 -0.00 16.87
Fees paid 2.88 3.72 10.79 6.57 0.30
Fee drag 0.29% 0.37% 1.08% 0.66% 0.03%
Final equity 1001.30 1004.60 1032.81 1132.93 1016.87

Every number on this page is read from the run record that produced it — the audit pipeline writes the page and the record together, so the two cannot drift apart.

What the guard is, and what a better number under it means. The break-even guard refuses any exit below average entry plus fees. It cannot improve a strategy's judgement — it can only stop it selling at a loss, which means holding the position instead. Across the pack that turns a strategy that churned into one that buys and waits: trade counts collapse and time in market rises towards 100%. In a window where the asset itself rose, that reads as a much better return while being strictly less of a strategy.

So read the return next to round trips, time in market and edge vs buy and hold. The last of those is the one that matters: not one strategy in this matrix beat simply holding the asset, in either run.

Ignore the win rate and the profit factor under the guard. Both count closed trades only, and the guard closes nothing at a loss — in all 101 guarded runs the number of losing closed trades is exactly zero. So the win rate goes to 100% and the profit factor becomes undefined for arithmetic reasons, while the losses sit in the position that is still open. The unrealised row is where they went.