← CCI_MeanRev_MM

CCI_MeanRev_MM — metrics

Unguarded: WARN · 1 warnGuarded: WARN · 1 warnMM-DCAgunbot-quant

BTCUSDT · 2026-08-13 01:50 → 2026-09-12 01:50 UTC (30 days) · 0.03% fee + 2 bps slippage · 123 quote, one figure for every cell

The same document for both runs of the same measurement — first as the strategy ships, then with the break-even guard. Everything else about the two runs is identical.

As it ships WARN · 1 warn

Exits: the strategy's own exits, stops included

The metric set the portfolio dashboard reports, computed per cell so a backtested configuration and a running one read on the same axes. Portfolio-level measures (concentration, pairwise correlation, beta against a benchmark) are omitted: one strategy on one pair has no cross-sectional structure to measure, and printing a null would imply the number exists.

1m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return -11.61% -32.18% -57.47% -66.78% -59.50%
CAGR -77.74% -99.11% -100.00% -100.00% -100.00%
Buy and hold 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88%
Edge vs B&H -33.50% -54.06% -79.35% -88.66% -81.38%
Volatility (ann.) 5.94% 12.03% 20.29% 21.81% 21.73%
Sharpe -25.26 -39.22 -51.17 -61.38 -50.51
Sortino -22.32 -35.81 -46.62 -55.54 -45.24
Calmar -6.67 -3.08 -1.74 -1.50 -1.68
Omega 0.75 0.72 0.70 0.67 0.67
Max drawdown 11.66% 32.18% 57.47% 66.78% 59.57%
Ulcer index 0.0634 0.1776 0.3511 0.4091 0.4554
Drawdown episodes 2 1 2 1 1
Longest underwater (days) 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0
Recovery factor -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00
VaR 95% -0.727% -2.346% -3.931% -5.957% -6.405%
VaR 99% -0.914% -2.795% -6.436% -6.748% -7.700%
CVaR 95% -0.820% -2.571% -5.183% -6.353% -7.052%
Skew 0.45 -0.55 -0.74 -0.05 0.13
Excess kurtosis 0.03 0.49 2.90 0.48 -1.28
Best day 0.19% -0.06% -0.31% -0.49% 0.12%
Worst day -0.91% -2.79% -6.44% -6.75% -7.70%
Positive days 2 0 0 0 4
Negative days 28 30 30 30 26
Round trips 486 836 1,153 1,313 1,003
Winning / losing trades 152 / 334 221 / 615 257 / 896 249 / 1,064 185 / 818
Trades per day 16.20 27.87 38.43 43.77 33.43
Win rate 31.28% 26.44% 22.29% 18.96% 18.44%
Profit factor 0.22 0.17 0.14 0.12 0.12
Payoff ratio 0.49 0.47 0.48 0.50 0.52
Expectancy -0.0294 -0.0473 -0.0613 -0.0626 -0.0730
Average win 0.0271 0.0360 0.0435 0.0441 0.0526
Average loss 0.0551 0.0773 0.0914 0.0875 0.1014
Average trade -0.0294 -0.0473 -0.0613 -0.0626 -0.0730
Max win streak 5 6 9 13 10
Max loss streak 32 50 57 64 91
Time in market 17.25% 28.47% 37.08% 40.31% 29.01%
Turnover 0.18 0.45 0.76 0.85 0.75
Realised P&L -14.29 -39.58 -70.68 -82.14 -73.19
Unrealised P&L -0.00 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00 0.00
Fees paid 9.82 26.48 47.31 53.49 48.32
Fee drag 7.98% 21.53% 38.46% 43.49% 39.28%
Final equity 108.71 83.42 52.32 40.86 49.81

3m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return -1.57% -6.68% -16.95% -23.97% -32.98%
CAGR -17.53% -56.88% -89.57% -96.44% -99.23%
Buy and hold 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86%
Edge vs B&H -23.43% -28.54% -38.81% -45.83% -54.84%
Volatility (ann.) 4.90% 9.45% 18.95% 20.74% 23.50%
Sharpe -3.91 -8.85 -11.83 -15.97 -20.60
Sortino -3.77 -8.40 -11.39 -15.12 -19.30
Calmar -9.71 -8.36 -5.22 -3.99 -3.00
Omega 0.93 0.88 0.87 0.83 0.80
Max drawdown 1.81% 6.80% 17.15% 24.15% 33.10%
Ulcer index 0.0097 0.0359 0.0961 0.1431 0.1832
Drawdown episodes 2 11 12 3 8
Longest underwater (days) 15.0 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8
Recovery factor -0.87 -0.98 -0.99 -0.99 -1.00
VaR 95% -0.462% -0.879% -1.936% -2.061% -3.187%
VaR 99% -0.519% -1.156% -2.766% -3.180% -3.503%
CVaR 95% -0.490% -1.018% -2.351% -2.621% -3.345%
Skew -0.71 -0.37 -0.44 -0.53 -0.18
Excess kurtosis 0.56 -0.07 0.41 0.78 0.15
Best day 0.23% 0.50% 0.72% 0.52% 0.51%
Worst day -0.52% -1.16% -2.77% -3.18% -3.50%
Positive days 11 9 6 3 3
Negative days 18 20 23 26 26
Round trips 172 309 408 443 507
Winning / losing trades 89 / 83 152 / 157 186 / 222 167 / 276 172 / 335
Trades per day 5.73 10.30 13.60 14.77 16.90
Win rate 51.74% 49.19% 45.59% 37.70% 33.93%
Profit factor 0.67 0.52 0.45 0.36 0.30
Payoff ratio 0.62 0.54 0.53 0.60 0.59
Expectancy -0.0112 -0.0266 -0.0511 -0.0666 -0.0800
Average win 0.0441 0.0584 0.0899 0.1012 0.1032
Average loss 0.0706 0.1089 0.1693 0.1681 0.1741
Average trade -0.0112 -0.0266 -0.0511 -0.0666 -0.0800
Max win streak 6 8 7 6 5
Max loss streak 15 23 27 30 35
Time in market 15.51% 28.69% 36.49% 39.29% 42.66%
Turnover 0.08 0.21 0.44 0.51 0.62
Realised P&L -1.93 -8.22 -20.85 -29.49 -40.57
Unrealised P&L 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01
Fees paid 3.45 9.56 21.26 23.56 29.37
Fee drag 2.80% 7.77% 17.29% 19.16% 23.88%
Final equity 121.07 114.78 102.15 93.52 82.44

5m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return -0.08% -1.86% -5.93% -12.46% -16.60%
CAGR -0.91% -20.43% -52.45% -80.19% -89.02%
Buy and hold 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83%
Edge vs B&H -21.90% -23.69% -27.76% -34.29% -38.43%
Volatility (ann.) 4.17% 8.80% 18.73% 22.22% 21.19%
Sharpe -0.20 -2.55 -3.88 -7.18 -10.32
Sortino -0.20 -2.49 -3.83 -7.00 -9.98
Calmar -1.69 -8.52 -8.29 -6.30 -5.30
Omega 1.00 0.95 0.94 0.90 0.87
Max drawdown 0.54% 2.40% 6.33% 12.72% 16.81%
Ulcer index 0.0021 0.0105 0.0309 0.0619 0.0816
Drawdown episodes 34 1 2 9 9
Longest underwater (days) 11.7 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.8
Recovery factor -0.14 -0.78 -0.94 -0.98 -0.99
VaR 95% -0.237% -0.403% -1.040% -1.602% -1.614%
VaR 99% -0.246% -0.462% -1.256% -1.619% -1.860%
CVaR 95% -0.242% -0.433% -1.148% -1.610% -1.737%
Skew -0.03 0.59 0.56 0.44 0.37
Excess kurtosis 0.50 -0.40 -0.25 -0.76 -0.75
Best day 0.24% 0.48% 1.48% 1.18% 0.92%
Worst day -0.25% -0.46% -1.26% -1.62% -1.86%
Positive days 16 9 10 8 8
Negative days 14 21 20 22 22
Round trips 105 175 249 276 309
Winning / losing trades 62 / 43 104 / 71 143 / 106 139 / 137 140 / 169
Trades per day 3.50 5.83 8.30 9.20 10.30
Win rate 59.05% 59.43% 57.43% 50.36% 45.31%
Profit factor 0.97 0.76 0.71 0.57 0.48
Payoff ratio 0.67 0.52 0.53 0.56 0.57
Expectancy -0.0009 -0.0131 -0.0293 -0.0556 -0.0662
Average win 0.0476 0.0713 0.1243 0.1477 0.1324
Average loss 0.0708 0.1367 0.2364 0.2619 0.2307
Average trade -0.0009 -0.0131 -0.0293 -0.0556 -0.0662
Max win streak 9 15 17 9 8
Max loss streak 7 8 8 10 17
Time in market 14.06% 25.34% 34.14% 37.96% 41.34%
Turnover 0.05 0.14 0.35 0.46 0.47
Realised P&L -0.09 -2.29 -7.29 -15.36 -20.46
Unrealised P&L 0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.04 0.05
Fees paid 2.12 5.39 13.79 17.70 18.54
Fee drag 1.72% 4.38% 11.21% 14.39% 15.08%
Final equity 122.91 120.71 115.71 107.64 102.54

Every number on this page is read from the run record that produced it — the audit pipeline writes the page and the record together, so the two cannot drift apart.

With the break-even guard WARN · 1 warn

Exits: no exit below average entry plus fees, stops included

The metric set the portfolio dashboard reports, computed per cell so a backtested configuration and a running one read on the same axes. Portfolio-level measures (concentration, pairwise correlation, beta against a benchmark) are omitted: one strategy on one pair has no cross-sectional structure to measure, and printing a null would imply the number exists.

1m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 0.77% 1.65% 3.28% 2.06% 2.20%
CAGR 9.76% 22.10% 48.10% 28.14% 30.38%
Buy and hold 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88%
Edge vs B&H -21.11% -20.23% -18.60% -19.82% -19.68%
Volatility (ann.) 10.15% 15.89% 29.98% 33.48% 27.42%
Sharpe 0.97 1.34 1.46 0.91 1.10
Sortino 0.93 1.29 1.41 0.87 1.06
Calmar 5.21 8.54 9.47 4.76 6.28
Omega 1.00 1.01 1.01 1.00 1.00
Max drawdown 1.87% 2.59% 5.08% 5.92% 4.84%
Ulcer index 0.0065 0.0100 0.0198 0.0253 0.0206
Drawdown episodes 265 324 319 273 269
Longest underwater (days) 6.6 6.6 6.6 8.2 8.2
Recovery factor 0.41 0.64 0.65 0.35 0.46
VaR 95% -0.753% -1.041% -1.933% -2.066% -1.665%
VaR 99% -1.181% -1.638% -3.260% -3.477% -2.819%
CVaR 95% -0.967% -1.340% -2.596% -2.772% -2.242%
Skew 0.45 0.46 0.48 0.38 0.38
Excess kurtosis 1.87 1.41 1.57 0.91 0.91
Best day 1.53% 2.18% 4.41% 4.44% 3.64%
Worst day -1.18% -1.64% -3.26% -3.48% -2.82%
Positive days 16 15 15 15 15
Negative days 14 15 15 15 15
Round trips 69 94 135 103 110
Winning / losing trades 69 / 0 94 / 0 135 / 0 103 / 0 110 / 0
Trades per day 2.30 3.13 4.50 3.43 3.67
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 0.0257 0.0438 0.0598 0.0859 0.0713
Average win 0.0257 0.0438 0.0598 0.0859 0.0713
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 0.0257 0.0438 0.0598 0.0859 0.0713
Max win streak 69 94 135 103 110
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 86.23% 90.15% 92.02% 94.38% 95.46%
Turnover 0.01 0.03 0.07 0.07 0.06
Realised P&L 1.78 4.12 8.07 8.84 7.84
Unrealised P&L -0.84 -2.10 -4.07 -6.33 -5.15
Fees paid 1.40 3.05 7.58 7.00 6.63
Fee drag 1.15% 2.50% 6.21% 5.74% 5.44%
Final equity 122.94 124.02 126.00 124.51 124.69

3m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 2.37% 1.65% 4.67% 2.00% 0.60%
CAGR 33.03% 21.99% 74.24% 27.23% 7.50%
Buy and hold 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86%
Edge vs B&H -19.49% -20.21% -17.19% -19.86% -21.26%
Volatility (ann.) 8.55% 12.92% 27.05% 31.45% 26.60%
Sharpe 3.38 1.60 2.19 0.92 0.41
Sortino 3.43 1.59 2.19 0.90 0.39
Calmar 26.14 9.63 16.21 4.71 1.56
Omega 1.03 1.01 1.02 1.01 1.00
Max drawdown 1.26% 2.28% 4.58% 5.78% 4.82%
Ulcer index 0.0031 0.0082 0.0157 0.0233 0.0196
Drawdown episodes 266 198 237 188 156
Longest underwater (days) 2.6 8.0 6.6 8.2 8.2
Recovery factor 1.88 0.72 1.02 0.35 0.12
VaR 95% -0.490% -1.029% -1.893% -2.033% -1.663%
VaR 99% -0.828% -1.390% -2.976% -3.248% -2.677%
CVaR 95% -0.659% -1.209% -2.435% -2.640% -2.170%
Skew -0.89 0.24 0.24 0.23 0.28
Excess kurtosis 0.90 1.92 2.63 0.93 0.86
Best day 0.59% 1.78% 3.84% 3.93% 3.16%
Worst day -0.83% -1.39% -2.98% -3.25% -2.68%
Positive days 21 16 18 16 14
Negative days 8 13 11 13 15
Round trips 75 62 103 64 59
Winning / losing trades 75 / 0 62 / 0 103 / 0 64 / 0 59 / 0
Trades per day 2.50 2.07 3.43 2.13 1.97
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 0.0386 0.0608 0.0893 0.1371 0.1000
Average win 0.0386 0.0608 0.0893 0.1371 0.1000
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 0.0386 0.0608 0.0893 0.1371 0.1000
Max win streak 75 62 103 64 59
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 57.99% 83.35% 82.76% 89.03% 91.40%
Turnover 0.02 0.03 0.08 0.07 0.05
Realised P&L 2.90 3.77 9.19 8.77 5.90
Unrealised P&L 0.00 -1.76 -3.50 -6.33 -5.17
Fees paid 1.55 1.85 5.98 4.32 3.57
Fee drag 1.27% 1.52% 4.90% 3.54% 2.93%
Final equity 124.90 124.01 127.70 124.44 122.73

5m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 2.61% 4.33% 4.98% 1.24% 0.31%
CAGR 36.84% 67.44% 80.70% 16.12% 3.83%
Buy and hold 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83%
Edge vs B&H -19.22% -17.50% -16.85% -20.59% -21.52%
Volatility (ann.) 6.61% 13.18% 26.25% 31.16% 25.98%
Sharpe 4.78 3.98 2.39 0.64 0.27
Sortino 4.96 4.07 2.41 0.63 0.27
Calmar 33.92 31.34 19.76 2.81 0.80
Omega 1.07 1.05 1.03 1.01 1.00
Max drawdown 1.09% 2.15% 4.08% 5.74% 4.78%
Ulcer index 0.0020 0.0066 0.0144 0.0223 0.0188
Drawdown episodes 247 220 242 164 131
Longest underwater (days) 2.5 6.3 6.5 8.1 8.2
Recovery factor 2.40 2.01 1.22 0.22 0.06
VaR 95% -0.190% -1.001% -1.848% -1.994% -1.623%
VaR 99% -0.467% -1.285% -2.536% -3.075% -2.592%
CVaR 95% -0.328% -1.143% -2.192% -2.535% -2.107%
Skew 1.84 0.63 0.20 0.16 0.11
Excess kurtosis 7.31 1.79 1.17 0.68 0.51
Best day 1.10% 1.90% 3.43% 3.65% 2.82%
Worst day -0.47% -1.29% -2.54% -3.08% -2.59%
Positive days 25 22 21 18 17
Negative days 5 8 9 12 13
Round trips 61 74 81 52 47
Winning / losing trades 61 / 0 74 / 0 81 / 0 52 / 0 47 / 0
Trades per day 2.03 2.47 2.70 1.73 1.57
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 0.0522 0.0713 0.1179 0.1486 0.1165
Average win 0.0522 0.0713 0.1179 0.1486 0.1165
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 0.0522 0.0713 0.1179 0.1486 0.1165
Max win streak 61 74 81 52 47
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 43.36% 68.06% 76.73% 86.33% 88.76%
Turnover 0.03 0.04 0.08 0.06 0.04
Realised P&L 3.19 5.28 9.55 7.73 5.48
Unrealised P&L 0.00 0.00 -3.47 -6.22 -5.10
Fees paid 1.27 2.25 4.66 3.62 2.85
Fee drag 1.04% 1.84% 3.82% 2.97% 2.34%
Final equity 125.19 127.28 128.08 123.47 122.33

Every number on this page is read from the run record that produced it — the audit pipeline writes the page and the record together, so the two cannot drift apart.

What the guard is, and what a better number under it means. The break-even guard refuses any exit below average entry plus fees. It cannot improve a strategy's judgement — it can only stop it selling at a loss, which means holding the position instead. Across the pack that turns a strategy that churned into one that buys and waits: trade counts collapse and time in market rises towards 100%. In a window where the asset itself rose, that reads as a much better return while being strictly less of a strategy.

So read the return next to round trips, time in market and edge vs buy and hold. The last of those is the one that matters: not one strategy in this matrix beat simply holding the asset, in either run.

Ignore the win rate and the profit factor under the guard. Both count closed trades only, and the guard closes nothing at a loss — in all 101 guarded runs the number of losing closed trades is exactly zero. So the win rate goes to 100% and the profit factor becomes undefined for arithmetic reasons, while the losses sit in the position that is still open. The unrealised row is where they went.