← CMF_Accumulation

CMF_Accumulation — metrics

Unguarded: PASSGuarded: FAIL · 2 failDirectionalgunbot-quant

BTCUSDT · 2026-08-13 01:50 → 2026-09-12 01:50 UTC (30 days) · 0.03% fee + 2 bps slippage · 1,000 quote, one figure for every cell

The same document for both runs of the same measurement — first as the strategy ships, then with the break-even guard. Everything else about the two runs is identical.

As it ships PASS

Exits: the strategy's own exits, stops included

The metric set the portfolio dashboard reports, computed per cell so a backtested configuration and a running one read on the same axes. Portfolio-level measures (concentration, pairwise correlation, beta against a benchmark) are omitted: one strategy on one pair has no cross-sectional structure to measure, and printing a null would imply the number exists.

1m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return -15.75% -26.14% -47.22% -68.89% -71.78%
CAGR -87.57% -97.50% -99.96% -100.00% -100.00%
Buy and hold 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88%
Edge vs B&H -37.63% -48.02% -69.10% -90.77% -93.66%
Volatility (ann.) 2.28% 5.52% 14.89% 20.80% 22.99%
Sharpe -91.45 -66.78 -52.13 -68.18 -66.84
Sortino -65.22 -56.92 -51.53 -66.16 -66.27
Calmar -5.56 -3.71 -2.10 -1.45 -1.39
Omega 0.43 0.50 0.56 0.54 0.54
Max drawdown 15.75% 26.25% 47.56% 69.03% 71.92%
Ulcer index 0.0929 0.1580 0.2912 0.4520 0.4757
Drawdown episodes 1 1 1 1 1
Longest underwater (days) 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0
Recovery factor -1.00 -1.00 -0.99 -1.00 -1.00
VaR 95% -0.794% -1.501% -3.148% -5.678% -6.160%
VaR 99% -0.815% -1.623% -3.291% -5.967% -6.417%
CVaR 95% -0.805% -1.562% -3.220% -5.823% -6.289%
Skew 0.14 0.32 0.66 0.02 0.07
Excess kurtosis -0.95 -0.31 -0.13 -1.01 -0.98
Best day -0.28% -0.20% -0.02% -1.72% -1.84%
Worst day -0.82% -1.62% -3.29% -5.97% -6.42%
Positive days 0 0 0 0 0
Negative days 30 30 30 30 30
Round trips 1,832 1,832 1,832 1,831 1,831
Winning / losing trades 113 / 1,719 101 / 1,731 93 / 1,739 142 / 1,689 148 / 1,683
Trades per day 61.07 61.07 61.07 61.03 61.03
Win rate 6.17% 5.51% 5.08% 7.76% 8.08%
Profit factor 0.09 0.14 0.22 0.21 0.22
Payoff ratio 1.37 2.32 4.14 2.51 2.47
Expectancy -0.0860 -0.1427 -0.2578 -0.3762 -0.3920
Average win 0.1375 0.4058 1.4436 1.2967 1.3423
Average loss 0.1007 0.1747 0.3488 0.5169 0.5445
Average trade -0.0860 -0.1427 -0.2578 -0.3762 -0.3920
Max win streak 4 3 5 5 5
Max loss streak 211 220 178 140 140
Time in market 19.81% 22.12% 24.02% 25.32% 25.68%
Turnover 0.19 0.34 0.74 1.06 1.12
Realised P&L -157.52 -261.43 -472.23 -688.83 -717.70
Unrealised P&L -0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.07 -0.07
Fees paid 98.14 168.85 321.57 446.88 464.68
Fee drag 9.81% 16.89% 32.16% 44.69% 46.47%
Final equity 842.48 738.57 527.77 311.11 282.23

3m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return -3.36% -5.38% -15.13% -30.01% -32.08%
CAGR -34.03% -48.98% -86.41% -98.70% -99.10%
Buy and hold 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86%
Edge vs B&H -25.22% -27.24% -36.99% -51.87% -53.94%
Volatility (ann.) 3.47% 6.86% 13.88% 19.54% 21.54%
Sharpe -11.96 -9.78 -14.31 -22.12 -21.75
Sortino -12.00 -9.78 -14.40 -21.52 -22.36
Calmar -8.54 -7.36 -5.21 -3.21 -3.01
Omega 0.78 0.82 0.77 0.72 0.72
Max drawdown 3.99% 6.65% 16.58% 30.79% 32.91%
Ulcer index 0.0224 0.0376 0.0933 0.1816 0.1929
Drawdown episodes 6 6 5 2 3
Longest underwater (days) 22.7 22.7 22.7 29.9 29.9
Recovery factor -0.84 -0.81 -0.91 -0.97 -0.97
VaR 95% -0.297% -0.537% -1.448% -2.611% -2.938%
VaR 99% -0.395% -0.822% -2.118% -3.698% -4.204%
CVaR 95% -0.346% -0.679% -1.783% -3.155% -3.571%
Skew 4.05 3.63 2.52 1.45 1.31
Excess kurtosis 17.28 14.68 8.37 3.84 3.42
Best day 1.32% 2.34% 3.58% 3.44% 3.72%
Worst day -0.39% -0.82% -2.12% -3.70% -4.20%
Positive days 2 3 3 2 2
Negative days 26 25 25 26 27
Round trips 628 628 628 628 628
Winning / losing trades 87 / 541 83 / 545 68 / 560 86 / 542 86 / 542
Trades per day 20.93 20.93 20.93 20.93 20.93
Win rate 13.85% 13.22% 10.83% 13.69% 13.69%
Profit factor 0.52 0.58 0.49 0.42 0.43
Payoff ratio 3.24 3.79 4.03 2.66 2.71
Expectancy -0.0535 -0.0857 -0.2409 -0.4779 -0.5108
Average win 0.4210 0.8841 2.1373 2.5514 2.8100
Average loss 0.1298 0.2333 0.5297 0.9586 1.0377
Average trade -0.0535 -0.0857 -0.2409 -0.4779 -0.5108
Max win streak 4 4 2 4 4
Max loss streak 56 56 52 34 34
Time in market 21.57% 23.77% 25.07% 26.46% 26.58%
Turnover 0.11 0.20 0.44 0.74 0.80
Realised P&L -33.61 -53.80 -151.30 -300.12 -320.78
Unrealised P&L -0.00 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00
Fees paid 35.32 63.41 132.67 216.63 231.37
Fee drag 3.53% 6.34% 13.27% 21.66% 23.14%
Final equity 966.39 946.20 848.70 699.88 679.22

5m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return -2.83% -4.45% -10.20% -19.08% -21.09%
CAGR -29.48% -42.50% -72.99% -92.40% -94.40%
Buy and hold 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83%
Edge vs B&H -24.66% -26.28% -32.03% -40.91% -42.92%
Volatility (ann.) 2.99% 6.57% 14.13% 20.62% 22.59%
Sharpe -11.68 -8.39 -9.19 -12.39 -12.65
Sortino -11.76 -8.82 -9.51 -13.09 -13.27
Calmar -9.26 -7.54 -6.18 -4.74 -4.44
Omega 0.74 0.80 0.80 0.78 0.78
Max drawdown 3.18% 5.63% 11.81% 19.50% 21.27%
Ulcer index 0.0186 0.0325 0.0664 0.1094 0.1209
Drawdown episodes 5 9 8 2 2
Longest underwater (days) 21.7 21.7 21.7 29.9 29.9
Recovery factor -0.89 -0.79 -0.86 -0.98 -0.99
VaR 95% -0.249% -0.460% -1.070% -1.872% -2.058%
VaR 99% -0.279% -0.471% -1.122% -2.234% -2.075%
CVaR 95% -0.264% -0.466% -1.096% -2.053% -2.067%
Skew 3.06 3.36 3.31 2.07 2.15
Excess kurtosis 11.21 12.53 12.81 6.22 6.51
Best day 0.78% 1.81% 3.51% 3.85% 4.33%
Worst day -0.28% -0.47% -1.12% -2.23% -2.08%
Positive days 3 3 3 5 5
Negative days 26 27 27 25 25
Round trips 423 423 423 423 423
Winning / losing trades 59 / 364 61 / 362 50 / 373 60 / 363 58 / 365
Trades per day 14.10 14.10 14.10 14.10 14.10
Win rate 13.95% 14.42% 11.82% 14.18% 13.71%
Profit factor 0.46 0.54 0.52 0.52 0.52
Payoff ratio 2.84 3.21 3.90 3.17 3.25
Expectancy -0.0669 -0.1051 -0.2411 -0.4512 -0.4987
Average win 0.4096 0.8614 2.2389 3.4968 3.8752
Average loss 0.1441 0.2680 0.5736 1.1037 1.1937
Average trade -0.0669 -0.1051 -0.2411 -0.4512 -0.4987
Max win streak 4 3 3 4 4
Max loss streak 41 41 41 41 41
Time in market 20.94% 23.38% 25.01% 26.19% 26.44%
Turnover 0.08 0.15 0.33 0.61 0.66
Realised P&L -28.30 -44.46 -101.99 -190.84 -210.94
Unrealised P&L -0.00 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00
Fees paid 23.49 42.10 87.59 151.17 160.74
Fee drag 2.35% 4.21% 8.76% 15.12% 16.07%
Final equity 971.70 955.54 898.01 809.16 789.06

Every number on this page is read from the run record that produced it — the audit pipeline writes the page and the record together, so the two cannot drift apart.

With the break-even guard FAIL · 2 fail

Exits: no exit below average entry plus fees, stops included

The metric set the portfolio dashboard reports, computed per cell so a backtested configuration and a running one read on the same axes. Portfolio-level measures (concentration, pairwise correlation, beta against a benchmark) are omitted: one strategy on one pair has no cross-sectional structure to measure, and printing a null would imply the number exists.

1m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 0.77% 3.44% 4.35% 8.79% 9.78%
CAGR 9.84% 50.91% 67.94% 178.72% 211.25%
Buy and hold 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88%
Edge vs B&H -21.11% -18.44% -17.53% -13.09% -12.10%
Volatility (ann.) 3.85% 9.44% 23.64% 32.60% 35.23%
Sharpe 2.46 4.41 2.31 3.31 3.40
Sortino 2.39 4.97 2.30 3.26 3.36
Calmar 11.40 29.84 13.14 28.14 30.67
Omega 1.01 1.03 1.01 1.02 1.02
Max drawdown 0.86% 1.71% 5.17% 6.35% 6.89%
Ulcer index 0.0033 0.0065 0.0183 0.0248 0.0267
Drawdown episodes 45 30 34 55 60
Longest underwater (days) 9.6 13.3 13.3 9.6 9.6
Recovery factor 0.90 2.02 0.84 1.38 1.42
VaR 95% -0.205% -0.400% -1.118% -1.818% -1.818%
VaR 99% -0.303% -0.519% -1.236% -1.880% -2.098%
CVaR 95% -0.254% -0.459% -1.177% -1.849% -1.958%
Skew 1.20 3.03 2.03 1.48 1.57
Excess kurtosis 2.13 10.04 5.17 2.18 2.52
Best day 0.62% 2.73% 4.38% 5.51% 6.37%
Worst day -0.30% -0.52% -1.24% -1.88% -2.10%
Positive days 16 16 16 16 16
Negative days 14 14 14 14 14
Round trips 62 58 53 58 58
Winning / losing trades 62 / 0 58 / 0 53 / 0 58 / 0 58 / 0
Trades per day 2.07 1.93 1.77 1.93 1.93
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 0.2383 0.8384 1.6964 2.5314 2.8055
Average win 0.2383 0.8384 1.6964 2.5314 2.8055
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 0.2383 0.8384 1.6964 2.5314 2.8055
Max win streak 62 58 53 58 58
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 98.67% 98.92% 98.96% 98.91% 98.85%
Turnover 0.01 0.05 0.09 0.15 0.16
Realised P&L 14.78 48.63 89.91 146.82 162.72
Unrealised P&L -7.03 -14.23 -46.38 -58.92 -64.90
Fees paid 5.11 9.74 21.93 33.98 37.37
Fee drag 0.51% 0.97% 2.19% 3.40% 3.74%
Final equity 1007.74 1034.40 1043.53 1087.90 1097.82

3m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 2.41% 3.89% 5.28% 9.49% 10.26%
CAGR 33.65% 59.11% 87.07% 201.28% 228.18%
Buy and hold 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86%
Edge vs B&H -19.45% -17.97% -16.58% -12.37% -11.60%
Volatility (ann.) 4.69% 9.32% 23.39% 31.83% 34.43%
Sharpe 6.21 5.03 2.80 3.62 3.62
Sortino 6.90 5.23 2.80 3.62 3.62
Calmar 42.46 34.66 15.09 32.69 34.03
Omega 1.06 1.05 1.02 1.03 1.03
Max drawdown 0.79% 1.71% 5.77% 6.16% 6.71%
Ulcer index 0.0035 0.0084 0.0282 0.0293 0.0318
Drawdown episodes 20 19 26 41 38
Longest underwater (days) 18.0 21.7 21.7 18.0 18.0
Recovery factor 3.04 2.28 0.92 1.54 1.53
VaR 95% -0.259% -0.507% -1.584% -1.958% -2.129%
VaR 99% -0.424% -0.828% -2.551% -3.140% -3.407%
CVaR 95% -0.341% -0.667% -2.067% -2.549% -2.768%
Skew 3.08 2.61 1.50 1.35 1.37
Excess kurtosis 11.24 8.28 3.25 2.23 2.32
Best day 1.79% 3.04% 5.17% 6.56% 7.15%
Worst day -0.42% -0.83% -2.55% -3.14% -3.41%
Positive days 15 15 15 14 15
Negative days 14 14 14 15 14
Round trips 42 40 34 38 38
Winning / losing trades 42 / 0 40 / 0 34 / 0 38 / 0 38 / 0
Trades per day 1.40 1.33 1.13 1.27 1.27
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 0.6771 1.3218 2.8785 3.9878 4.3390
Average win 0.6771 1.3218 2.8785 3.9878 4.3390
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 0.6771 1.3218 2.8785 3.9878 4.3390
Max win streak 42 40 34 38 38
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 97.63% 98.02% 98.55% 98.27% 98.27%
Turnover 0.03 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.16
Realised P&L 28.44 52.87 97.87 151.54 164.88
Unrealised P&L -4.31 -13.97 -45.05 -56.66 -62.28
Fees paid 3.41 6.38 13.55 20.78 23.12
Fee drag 0.34% 0.64% 1.35% 2.08% 2.31%
Final equity 1024.12 1038.91 1052.82 1094.88 1102.60

5m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 1.02% 2.67% 5.37% 10.71% 11.50%
CAGR 13.18% 37.81% 88.90% 244.85% 275.83%
Buy and hold 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83%
Edge vs B&H -20.81% -19.16% -16.46% -11.12% -10.33%
Volatility (ann.) 4.41% 9.14% 21.08% 29.97% 32.24%
Sharpe 2.83 3.56 3.12 4.28 4.27
Sortino 2.99 3.76 3.23 4.38 4.37
Calmar 14.42 22.03 18.33 39.13 40.64
Omega 1.03 1.04 1.04 1.05 1.05
Max drawdown 0.91% 1.72% 4.85% 6.26% 6.79%
Ulcer index 0.0043 0.0077 0.0212 0.0223 0.0241
Drawdown episodes 25 30 26 41 41
Longest underwater (days) 21.7 18.0 21.7 8.2 8.2
Recovery factor 1.12 1.56 1.11 1.71 1.69
VaR 95% -0.252% -0.494% -1.544% -1.575% -1.710%
VaR 99% -0.433% -0.846% -2.605% -1.770% -1.960%
CVaR 95% -0.343% -0.670% -2.074% -1.672% -1.835%
Skew 1.72 2.07 1.48 1.77 1.77
Excess kurtosis 4.72 6.00 3.92 3.60 3.67
Best day 0.97% 2.27% 4.72% 6.15% 6.65%
Worst day -0.43% -0.85% -2.60% -1.77% -1.96%
Positive days 15 15 16 14 14
Negative days 15 15 14 16 16
Round trips 33 31 28 38 37
Winning / losing trades 33 / 0 31 / 0 28 / 0 38 / 0 37 / 0
Trades per day 1.10 1.03 0.93 1.27 1.23
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 0.5254 1.3225 3.0140 4.4183 4.9167
Average win 0.5254 1.3225 3.0140 4.4183 4.9167
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 0.5254 1.3225 3.0140 4.4183 4.9167
Max win streak 33 31 28 38 37
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 97.12% 97.58% 98.11% 92.66% 92.65%
Turnover 0.02 0.04 0.08 0.17 0.18
Realised P&L 17.34 41.00 84.39 167.90 181.92
Unrealised P&L -7.11 -14.29 -30.72 -60.79 -66.96
Fees paid 2.42 4.39 10.70 21.22 22.95
Fee drag 0.24% 0.44% 1.07% 2.12% 2.29%
Final equity 1010.23 1026.71 1053.67 1107.11 1114.96

Every number on this page is read from the run record that produced it — the audit pipeline writes the page and the record together, so the two cannot drift apart.

What the guard is, and what a better number under it means. The break-even guard refuses any exit below average entry plus fees. It cannot improve a strategy's judgement — it can only stop it selling at a loss, which means holding the position instead. Across the pack that turns a strategy that churned into one that buys and waits: trade counts collapse and time in market rises towards 100%. In a window where the asset itself rose, that reads as a much better return while being strictly less of a strategy.

So read the return next to round trips, time in market and edge vs buy and hold. The last of those is the one that matters: not one strategy in this matrix beat simply holding the asset, in either run.

Ignore the win rate and the profit factor under the guard. Both count closed trades only, and the guard closes nothing at a loss — in all 101 guarded runs the number of losing closed trades is exactly zero. So the win rate goes to 100% and the profit factor becomes undefined for arithmetic reasons, while the losses sit in the position that is still open. The unrealised row is where they went.