← CMO_Reversion

CMO_Reversion — metrics

Unguarded: WARN · 4 warnGuarded: WARN · 4 warnDirectionalgunbot-quant

BTCUSDT · 2026-08-13 01:50 → 2026-09-12 01:50 UTC (30 days) · 0.03% fee + 2 bps slippage · 1,000 quote, one figure for every cell

The same document for both runs of the same measurement — first as the strategy ships, then with the break-even guard. Everything else about the two runs is identical.

As it ships WARN · 4 warn

Exits: the strategy's own exits, stops included

The metric set the portfolio dashboard reports, computed per cell so a backtested configuration and a running one read on the same axes. Portfolio-level measures (concentration, pairwise correlation, beta against a benchmark) are omitted: one strategy on one pair has no cross-sectional structure to measure, and printing a null would imply the number exists.

1m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 0.00% -1.63% -10.70% -27.26% -37.01%
CAGR 0.00% -18.09% -74.78% -97.92% -99.64%
Buy and hold 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88%
Edge vs B&H -21.88% -23.51% -32.59% -49.14% -58.89%
Volatility (ann.) 0.00% 0.59% 2.81% 8.10% 10.09%
Sharpe 0.00 -33.59 -49.06 -47.73 -55.68
Sortino 0.00 -12.21 -29.84 -34.77 -41.47
Calmar 0.00 -11.12 -6.99 -3.59 -2.69
Omega 0.00 0.23 0.36 0.51 0.52
Max drawdown 0.00% 1.63% 10.70% 27.28% 37.04%
Ulcer index 0.0000 0.0115 0.0668 0.1651 0.2244
Drawdown episodes 0 1 1 1 1
Longest underwater (days) 0.0 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9
Recovery factor 0.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00
VaR 95% 0.000% -0.197% -0.733% -1.872% -2.161%
VaR 99% 0.000% -0.279% -1.064% -2.057% -2.280%
CVaR 95% 0.000% -0.238% -0.898% -1.964% -2.220%
Skew 0.00 -1.46 -0.99 -0.54 0.23
Excess kurtosis 0.00 1.66 0.90 -0.13 -0.94
Best day 0.00% 0.02% -0.09% -0.27% -0.64%
Worst day 0.00% -0.28% -1.06% -2.06% -2.28%
Positive days 0 2 0 0 0
Negative days 0 20 30 30 30
Round trips 0 91 285 488 624
Winning / losing trades 0 / 0 5 / 86 31 / 254 63 / 425 80 / 544
Trades per day 0.00 3.03 9.50 16.27 20.80
Win rate 0.00% 5.49% 10.88% 12.91% 12.82%
Profit factor 0.00 0.03 0.07 0.14 0.13
Payoff ratio 0.00 0.59 0.59 0.97 0.88
Expectancy 0.0000 -0.1788 -0.3756 -0.5585 -0.5932
Average win 0.0000 0.1154 0.2674 0.7307 0.6911
Average loss 0.0000 0.1959 0.4541 0.7496 0.7821
Average trade 0.0000 -0.1788 -0.3756 -0.5585 -0.5932
Max win streak 0 1 3 4 4
Max loss streak 0 42 42 63 71
Time in market 0.00% 1.30% 4.96% 9.79% 14.06%
Turnover 0.00 0.02 0.12 0.36 0.48
Realised P&L 0.00 -16.27 -107.05 -272.54 -370.15
Unrealised P&L 0.00 -0.00 -0.00 -0.04 0.03
Fees paid 0.00 9.24 65.19 183.20 240.68
Fee drag 0.00% 0.92% 6.52% 18.32% 24.07%
Final equity 1000.00 983.73 892.95 727.42 629.88

3m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 0.00% -0.27% -2.87% -8.11% -11.10%
CAGR 0.00% -3.25% -29.87% -64.25% -76.10%
Buy and hold 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86%
Edge vs B&H -21.86% -22.13% -24.73% -29.97% -32.96%
Volatility (ann.) 0.00% 0.65% 2.98% 7.89% 10.71%
Sharpe 0.00 -5.11 -11.89 -13.00 -13.32
Sortino 0.00 -2.41 -8.09 -10.02 -11.19
Calmar 0.00 -9.46 -10.39 -7.73 -6.86
Omega 0.00 0.67 0.65 0.74 0.76
Max drawdown 0.00% 0.34% 2.88% 8.31% 11.10%
Ulcer index 0.0000 0.0018 0.0159 0.0554 0.0677
Drawdown episodes 0 3 2 1 1
Longest underwater (days) 0.0 18.4 29.7 29.8 30.0
Recovery factor 0.00 -0.79 -1.00 -0.98 -1.00
VaR 95% 0.000% -0.073% -0.267% -0.849% -0.898%
VaR 99% 0.000% -0.093% -0.314% -0.892% -1.027%
CVaR 95% 0.000% -0.083% -0.290% -0.870% -0.962%
Skew 0.00 0.13 1.18 0.58 0.48
Excess kurtosis 0.00 2.70 2.27 0.41 -0.29
Best day 0.00% 0.10% 0.34% 0.91% 0.62%
Worst day 0.00% -0.09% -0.31% -0.89% -1.03%
Positive days 0 6 5 5 4
Negative days 0 9 24 24 25
Round trips 0 20 82 168 207
Winning / losing trades 0 / 0 4 / 16 19 / 63 51 / 117 55 / 152
Trades per day 0.00 0.67 2.73 5.60 6.90
Win rate 0.00% 20.00% 23.17% 30.36% 26.57%
Profit factor 0.00 0.34 0.32 0.41 0.36
Payoff ratio 0.00 1.35 1.07 0.94 1.00
Expectancy 0.0000 -0.1354 -0.3506 -0.4825 -0.5361
Average win 0.0000 0.3446 0.7187 1.1043 1.1494
Average loss 0.0000 0.2554 0.6730 1.1742 1.1460
Average trade 0.0000 -0.1354 -0.3506 -0.4825 -0.5361
Max win streak 0 2 7 4 4
Max loss streak 0 5 29 27 21
Time in market 0.00% 0.86% 4.55% 10.40% 14.85%
Turnover 0.00 0.01 0.06 0.19 0.24
Realised P&L 0.00 -2.71 -28.75 -81.06 -110.98
Unrealised P&L 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.00 0.00
Fees paid 0.00 2.08 19.01 68.40 93.47
Fee drag 0.00% 0.21% 1.90% 6.84% 9.35%
Final equity 1000.00 997.29 971.25 918.94 889.02

5m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 0.00% -0.16% -2.41% -4.88% -9.10%
CAGR 0.00% -1.89% -25.71% -45.61% -68.69%
Buy and hold 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83%
Edge vs B&H -21.83% -21.99% -24.24% -26.71% -30.93%
Volatility (ann.) 0.00% 0.45% 3.21% 8.29% 11.66%
Sharpe 0.00 -4.25 -9.23 -7.31 -9.90
Sortino 0.00 -2.65 -6.63 -5.63 -7.33
Calmar 0.00 -9.45 -10.31 -9.30 -7.39
Omega 0.00 0.73 0.67 0.79 0.75
Max drawdown 0.00% 0.20% 2.49% 4.90% 9.30%
Ulcer index 0.0000 0.0010 0.0117 0.0189 0.0449
Drawdown episodes 0 4 2 2 2
Longest underwater (days) 0.0 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7
Recovery factor 0.00 -0.78 -0.97 -1.00 -0.98
VaR 95% 0.000% -0.046% -0.336% -0.695% -1.062%
VaR 99% 0.000% -0.064% -0.580% -1.556% -1.833%
CVaR 95% 0.000% -0.055% -0.458% -1.125% -1.447%
Skew 0.00 -0.93 -1.05 -0.88 -0.16
Excess kurtosis 0.00 1.54 1.48 2.23 0.47
Best day 0.00% 0.04% 0.20% 0.68% 0.92%
Worst day 0.00% -0.06% -0.58% -1.56% -1.83%
Positive days 0 6 6 8 7
Negative days 0 11 22 20 22
Round trips 0 13 59 93 118
Winning / losing trades 0 / 0 4 / 9 16 / 43 36 / 57 43 / 75
Trades per day 0.00 0.43 1.97 3.10 3.93
Win rate 0.00% 30.77% 27.12% 38.71% 36.44%
Profit factor 0.00 0.44 0.34 0.48 0.35
Payoff ratio 0.00 0.99 0.90 0.76 0.61
Expectancy 0.0000 -0.1208 -0.4091 -0.5250 -0.7715
Average win 0.0000 0.3082 0.7655 1.2468 1.1409
Average loss 0.0000 0.3114 0.8461 1.6440 1.8679
Average trade 0.0000 -0.1208 -0.4091 -0.5250 -0.7715
Max win streak 0 2 3 6 4
Max loss streak 0 5 12 13 16
Time in market 0.00% 1.10% 5.52% 9.85% 14.63%
Turnover 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.14 0.19
Realised P&L 0.00 -1.57 -24.14 -48.82 -91.03
Unrealised P&L 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.00 -0.00
Fees paid 0.00 1.42 14.13 40.20 53.35
Fee drag 0.00% 0.14% 1.41% 4.02% 5.33%
Final equity 1000.00 998.43 975.86 951.18 908.97

Every number on this page is read from the run record that produced it — the audit pipeline writes the page and the record together, so the two cannot drift apart.

With the break-even guard WARN · 4 warn

Exits: no exit below average entry plus fees, stops included

The metric set the portfolio dashboard reports, computed per cell so a backtested configuration and a running one read on the same axes. Portfolio-level measures (concentration, pairwise correlation, beta against a benchmark) are omitted: one strategy on one pair has no cross-sectional structure to measure, and printing a null would imply the number exists.

1m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 0.00% 0.22% 0.26% -0.11% -0.66%
CAGR 0.00% 2.72% 3.19% -1.38% -7.78%
Buy and hold 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88%
Edge vs B&H -21.88% -21.66% -21.62% -22.00% -22.55%
Volatility (ann.) 0.00% 2.31% 10.76% 25.25% 30.75%
Sharpe 0.00 1.17 0.35 0.07 -0.11
Sortino 0.00 1.16 0.33 0.07 -0.11
Calmar 0.00 5.49 1.69 -0.25 -1.24
Omega 0.00 1.01 1.00 1.00 1.00
Max drawdown 0.00% 0.49% 1.89% 5.56% 6.30%
Ulcer index 0.0000 0.0009 0.0064 0.0192 0.0259
Drawdown episodes 0 92 183 165 138
Longest underwater (days) 0.0 5.3 6.6 7.6 8.2
Recovery factor 0.00 0.45 0.14 -0.02 -0.11
VaR 95% 0.000% -0.228% -0.910% -1.818% -2.164%
VaR 99% 0.000% -0.408% -1.035% -1.916% -3.638%
CVaR 95% 0.000% -0.318% -0.972% -1.867% -2.901%
Skew 0.00 -0.66 0.28 0.26 0.15
Excess kurtosis 0.00 4.48 0.83 -0.06 1.72
Best day 0.00% 0.34% 1.15% 2.60% 4.12%
Worst day 0.00% -0.41% -1.04% -1.92% -3.64%
Positive days 0 20 17 15 17
Negative days 0 10 13 15 13
Round trips 0 38 50 73 77
Winning / losing trades 0 / 0 38 / 0 50 / 0 73 / 0 77 / 0
Trades per day 0.00 1.27 1.67 2.43 2.57
Win rate 0.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor 0.00 ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio 0.00 ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 0.0000 0.0581 0.2330 0.6319 0.6229
Average win 0.0000 0.0581 0.2330 0.6319 0.6229
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 0.0000 0.0581 0.2330 0.6319 0.6229
Max win streak 0 38 50 73 77
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 0.00% 25.81% 84.49% 91.81% 94.52%
Turnover 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.05 0.05
Realised P&L 0.00 2.21 11.65 46.13 47.96
Unrealised P&L 0.00 0.00 -9.06 -47.26 -54.60
Fees paid 0.00 4.54 14.18 34.16 39.12
Fee drag 0.00% 0.45% 1.42% 3.42% 3.91%
Final equity 1000.00 1002.21 1002.59 998.86 993.36

3m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 0.00% 0.24% 0.42% 2.29% 2.47%
CAGR 0.00% 3.00% 5.24% 31.73% 34.58%
Buy and hold 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86%
Edge vs B&H -21.86% -21.62% -21.44% -19.57% -19.39%
Volatility (ann.) 0.00% 1.38% 7.33% 16.67% 19.75%
Sharpe 0.00 2.14 0.73 1.74 1.60
Sortino 0.00 2.13 0.72 1.70 1.57
Calmar 0.00 12.17 3.47 10.52 11.44
Omega 0.00 1.08 1.01 1.01 1.01
Max drawdown 0.00% 0.25% 1.51% 3.02% 3.02%
Ulcer index 0.0000 0.0004 0.0059 0.0120 0.0122
Drawdown episodes 0 28 74 94 107
Longest underwater (days) 0.0 17.8 9.3 8.0 9.3
Recovery factor 0.00 0.99 0.28 0.76 0.82
VaR 95% 0.000% -0.000% -0.523% -1.052% -1.052%
VaR 99% 0.000% -0.030% -0.798% -1.596% -1.596%
CVaR 95% 0.000% -0.015% -0.660% -1.324% -1.324%
Skew 0.00 2.71 0.13 0.50 0.42
Excess kurtosis 0.00 9.65 0.21 0.21 -0.05
Best day 0.00% 0.10% 0.83% 2.10% 1.87%
Worst day 0.00% -0.03% -0.80% -1.60% -1.60%
Positive days 0 19 16 14 15
Negative days 0 10 13 15 14
Round trips 0 14 33 39 46
Winning / losing trades 0 / 0 14 / 0 33 / 0 39 / 0 46 / 0
Trades per day 0.00 0.47 1.10 1.30 1.53
Win rate 0.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor 0.00 ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio 0.00 ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 0.0000 0.1736 0.5153 1.2644 1.1149
Average win 0.0000 0.1736 0.5153 1.2644 1.1149
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 0.0000 0.1736 0.5153 1.2644 1.1149
Max win streak 0 14 33 39 46
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 0.00% 5.31% 69.90% 88.17% 90.98%
Turnover 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.05 0.05
Realised P&L 0.00 2.43 17.00 49.31 51.28
Unrealised P&L 0.00 0.00 -12.80 -26.41 -26.58
Fees paid 0.00 1.51 8.74 17.54 24.08
Fee drag 0.00% 0.15% 0.87% 1.75% 2.41%
Final equity 1000.00 1002.43 1004.21 1022.90 1024.71

5m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 0.00% 0.22% 0.35% 3.14% 3.31%
CAGR 0.00% 2.66% 4.32% 45.65% 48.54%
Buy and hold 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83%
Edge vs B&H -21.83% -21.61% -21.48% -18.69% -18.52%
Volatility (ann.) 0.00% 1.21% 10.51% 16.71% 17.75%
Sharpe 0.00 2.18 0.45 2.33 2.32
Sortino 0.00 2.26 0.45 2.33 2.28
Calmar 0.00 9.04 1.81 15.59 18.94
Omega 0.00 1.08 1.01 1.03 1.03
Max drawdown 0.00% 0.29% 2.38% 2.93% 2.56%
Ulcer index 0.0000 0.0003 0.0043 0.0094 0.0093
Drawdown episodes 0 27 83 105 119
Longest underwater (days) 0.0 12.6 5.5 9.3 7.1
Recovery factor 0.00 0.73 0.15 1.07 1.29
VaR 95% 0.000% -0.008% -0.660% -1.343% -1.059%
VaR 99% 0.000% -0.205% -1.160% -1.532% -1.532%
CVaR 95% 0.000% -0.106% -0.910% -1.438% -1.296%
Skew 0.00 -0.06 -0.16 0.36 0.35
Excess kurtosis 0.00 8.28 2.15 1.36 0.17
Best day 0.00% 0.21% 1.11% 1.98% 2.11%
Worst day 0.00% -0.21% -1.16% -1.53% -1.53%
Positive days 0 17 15 18 16
Negative days 0 13 15 12 14
Round trips 0 11 38 49 48
Winning / losing trades 0 / 0 11 / 0 38 / 0 49 / 0 48 / 0
Trades per day 0.00 0.37 1.27 1.63 1.60
Win rate 0.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor 0.00 ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio 0.00 ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 0.0000 0.1964 0.3328 0.9813 1.1055
Average win 0.0000 0.1964 0.3328 0.9813 1.1055
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 0.0000 0.1964 0.3328 0.9813 1.1055
Max win streak 0 11 38 49 48
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 0.00% 6.79% 40.40% 54.77% 72.64%
Turnover 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.05 0.05
Realised P&L 0.00 2.16 12.65 48.08 53.07
Unrealised P&L 0.00 0.00 -9.17 -16.69 -20.01
Fees paid 0.00 1.19 9.66 21.77 22.22
Fee drag 0.00% 0.12% 0.97% 2.18% 2.22%
Final equity 1000.00 1002.16 1003.48 1031.39 1033.06

Every number on this page is read from the run record that produced it — the audit pipeline writes the page and the record together, so the two cannot drift apart.

What the guard is, and what a better number under it means. The break-even guard refuses any exit below average entry plus fees. It cannot improve a strategy's judgement — it can only stop it selling at a loss, which means holding the position instead. Across the pack that turns a strategy that churned into one that buys and waits: trade counts collapse and time in market rises towards 100%. In a window where the asset itself rose, that reads as a much better return while being strictly less of a strategy.

So read the return next to round trips, time in market and edge vs buy and hold. The last of those is the one that matters: not one strategy in this matrix beat simply holding the asset, in either run.

Ignore the win rate and the profit factor under the guard. Both count closed trades only, and the guard closes nothing at a loss — in all 101 guarded runs the number of losing closed trades is exactly zero. So the win rate goes to 100% and the profit factor becomes undefined for arithmetic reasons, while the losses sit in the position that is still open. The unrealised row is where they went.