← Chaikin_Vol_Expansion

Chaikin_Vol_Expansion — metrics

Unguarded: PASSGuarded: PASSDirectionalgunbot-quant

BTCUSDT · 2026-08-13 01:50 → 2026-09-12 01:50 UTC (30 days) · 0.03% fee + 2 bps slippage · 1,000 quote, one figure for every cell

The same document for both runs of the same measurement — first as the strategy ships, then with the break-even guard. Everything else about the two runs is identical.

As it ships PASS

Exits: the strategy's own exits, stops included

The metric set the portfolio dashboard reports, computed per cell so a backtested configuration and a running one read on the same axes. Portfolio-level measures (concentration, pairwise correlation, beta against a benchmark) are omitted: one strategy on one pair has no cross-sectional structure to measure, and printing a null would imply the number exists.

1m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return -5.66% -7.98% -17.15% -18.63% -19.68%
CAGR -50.80% -63.63% -89.86% -91.86% -93.05%
Buy and hold 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88%
Edge vs B&H -27.54% -29.86% -39.03% -40.51% -41.56%
Volatility (ann.) 2.91% 9.25% 19.46% 25.06% 27.30%
Sharpe -24.34 -10.89 -11.66 -9.89 -9.63
Sortino -16.28 -7.64 -9.29 -9.60 -9.86
Calmar -8.85 -7.28 -4.80 -4.25 -4.08
Omega 0.69 0.85 0.89 0.92 0.93
Max drawdown 5.74% 8.75% 18.71% 21.63% 22.78%
Ulcer index 0.0305 0.0465 0.1007 0.1086 0.1124
Drawdown episodes 1 8 11 19 19
Longest underwater (days) 30.0 21.7 21.7 21.7 21.7
Recovery factor -0.99 -0.91 -0.92 -0.86 -0.86
VaR 95% -0.344% -0.682% -1.665% -2.364% -2.625%
VaR 99% -0.436% -0.796% -1.725% -2.690% -2.910%
CVaR 95% -0.390% -0.739% -1.695% -2.527% -2.767%
Skew 2.74 2.33 2.04 1.74 1.77
Excess kurtosis 9.15 4.77 3.05 2.44 2.54
Best day 0.63% 1.85% 3.37% 4.82% 5.16%
Worst day -0.44% -0.80% -1.72% -2.69% -2.91%
Positive days 2 4 5 5 5
Negative days 28 26 25 25 25
Round trips 689 599 508 428 416
Winning / losing trades 53 / 636 35 / 564 32 / 476 57 / 371 58 / 358
Trades per day 22.97 19.97 16.93 14.27 13.87
Win rate 7.69% 5.84% 6.30% 13.32% 13.94%
Profit factor 0.31 0.48 0.51 0.60 0.61
Payoff ratio 3.68 7.71 7.56 3.93 3.76
Expectancy -0.0822 -0.1332 -0.3376 -0.4353 -0.4730
Average win 0.4721 2.0899 5.5403 4.9665 5.2839
Average loss 0.1284 0.2711 0.7327 1.2653 1.4057
Average trade -0.0822 -0.1332 -0.3376 -0.4353 -0.4730
Max win streak 2 2 2 4 4
Max loss streak 81 80 64 35 34
Time in market 13.71% 19.38% 28.61% 37.06% 38.14%
Turnover 0.11 0.23 0.53 0.75 0.81
Realised P&L -56.63 -79.77 -171.48 -186.33 -196.78
Unrealised P&L 0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fees paid 45.55 79.99 151.68 188.63 198.55
Fee drag 4.55% 8.00% 15.17% 18.86% 19.85%
Final equity 943.37 920.23 828.52 813.67 803.22

3m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return -1.18% 1.49% 0.25% 5.32% 4.88%
CAGR -13.40% 19.65% 3.11% 87.81% 78.46%
Buy and hold 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86%
Edge vs B&H -23.04% -20.37% -21.61% -16.54% -16.98%
Volatility (ann.) 2.78% 9.46% 19.30% 24.32% 26.59%
Sharpe -5.15 1.94 0.26 2.71 2.31
Sortino -3.53 1.26 0.21 2.72 2.43
Calmar -7.21 5.88 0.39 8.75 6.79
Omega 0.88 1.04 1.00 1.04 1.03
Max drawdown 1.86% 3.34% 7.90% 10.03% 11.55%
Ulcer index 0.0097 0.0192 0.0454 0.0417 0.0474
Drawdown episodes 7 25 38 46 46
Longest underwater (days) 23.4 21.7 21.7 15.7 15.7
Recovery factor -0.63 0.44 0.03 0.53 0.42
VaR 95% -0.151% -0.320% -0.930% -1.659% -1.883%
VaR 99% -0.198% -0.386% -1.485% -1.765% -2.021%
CVaR 95% -0.174% -0.353% -1.208% -1.712% -1.952%
Skew 3.85 3.15 2.54 2.13 2.09
Excess kurtosis 15.53 9.53 6.76 4.31 4.21
Best day 0.92% 3.15% 5.20% 7.25% 7.87%
Worst day -0.20% -0.39% -1.49% -1.76% -2.02%
Positive days 4 7 6 9 9
Negative days 25 22 23 20 20
Round trips 212 183 156 133 133
Winning / losing trades 26 / 186 17 / 166 14 / 142 21 / 112 21 / 112
Trades per day 7.07 6.10 5.20 4.43 4.43
Win rate 12.26% 9.29% 8.97% 15.79% 15.79%
Profit factor 0.62 1.26 1.02 1.24 1.19
Payoff ratio 4.44 12.26 10.31 6.60 6.35
Expectancy -0.0554 0.0812 0.0161 0.3997 0.3665
Average win 0.7416 4.2875 10.8107 13.1965 14.4556
Average loss 0.1668 0.3496 1.0481 1.9997 2.2751
Average trade -0.0554 0.0812 0.0161 0.3997 0.3665
Max win streak 2 3 1 2 2
Max loss streak 26 50 47 44 44
Time in market 13.28% 21.22% 30.14% 36.45% 37.08%
Turnover 0.05 0.13 0.30 0.50 0.56
Realised P&L -11.75 14.85 2.52 53.16 48.75
Unrealised P&L 0.00 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00
Fees paid 13.84 24.61 52.09 67.26 72.73
Fee drag 1.38% 2.46% 5.21% 6.73% 7.27%
Final equity 988.25 1014.85 1002.52 1053.16 1048.75

5m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 0.89% 2.72% 3.92% 7.33% 8.68%
CAGR 11.41% 38.54% 59.67% 136.52% 175.46%
Buy and hold 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83%
Edge vs B&H -20.94% -19.11% -17.91% -14.50% -13.14%
Volatility (ann.) 3.94% 9.63% 20.21% 26.05% 28.37%
Sharpe 2.77 3.43 2.42 3.43 3.71
Sortino 1.93 2.37 1.97 3.56 3.98
Calmar 9.45 16.57 8.90 16.24 20.61
Omega 1.10 1.10 1.05 1.06 1.07
Max drawdown 1.21% 2.33% 6.70% 8.40% 8.51%
Ulcer index 0.0074 0.0141 0.0433 0.0424 0.0450
Drawdown episodes 12 14 20 32 32
Longest underwater (days) 21.7 21.7 21.7 21.7 21.7
Recovery factor 0.74 1.17 0.59 0.87 1.02
VaR 95% -0.126% -0.226% -0.980% -1.335% -1.344%
VaR 99% -0.192% -0.230% -0.996% -1.846% -1.491%
CVaR 95% -0.159% -0.228% -0.988% -1.591% -1.417%
Skew 2.97 3.54 3.37 2.37 2.40
Excess kurtosis 8.76 12.73 12.37 5.22 5.20
Best day 1.20% 2.99% 6.53% 7.28% 7.77%
Worst day -0.19% -0.23% -1.00% -1.85% -1.49%
Positive days 6 7 7 10 10
Negative days 24 23 23 20 20
Round trips 126 101 87 78 76
Winning / losing trades 18 / 108 14 / 87 10 / 77 16 / 62 16 / 60
Trades per day 4.20 3.37 2.90 2.60 2.53
Win rate 14.29% 13.86% 11.49% 20.51% 21.05%
Profit factor 1.40 1.82 1.39 1.49 1.54
Payoff ratio 8.41 11.29 10.71 5.77 5.77
Expectancy 0.0708 0.2689 0.4507 0.9400 1.1428
Average win 1.7295 4.3156 13.9482 13.9663 15.4937
Average loss 0.2056 0.3823 1.3023 2.4217 2.6842
Average trade 0.0708 0.2689 0.4507 0.9400 1.1428
Max win streak 3 3 2 3 3
Max loss streak 34 26 25 24 23
Time in market 15.72% 22.93% 29.93% 35.69% 36.71%
Turnover 0.05 0.09 0.24 0.37 0.41
Realised P&L 8.92 27.16 39.21 73.32 86.85
Unrealised P&L -0.00 -0.00 0.00 -0.00 -0.00
Fees paid 8.42 14.23 29.53 40.12 42.86
Fee drag 0.84% 1.42% 2.95% 4.01% 4.29%
Final equity 1008.92 1027.16 1039.21 1073.32 1086.85

Every number on this page is read from the run record that produced it — the audit pipeline writes the page and the record together, so the two cannot drift apart.

With the break-even guard PASS

Exits: no exit below average entry plus fees, stops included

The metric set the portfolio dashboard reports, computed per cell so a backtested configuration and a running one read on the same axes. Portfolio-level measures (concentration, pairwise correlation, beta against a benchmark) are omitted: one strategy on one pair has no cross-sectional structure to measure, and printing a null would imply the number exists.

1m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 1.79% 5.44% 12.39% 14.09% 15.62%
CAGR 24.04% 90.42% 314.17% 397.29% 484.39%
Buy and hold 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88%
Edge vs B&H -20.09% -16.45% -9.49% -7.79% -6.27%
Volatility (ann.) 4.72% 15.11% 30.12% 35.61% 38.60%
Sharpe 4.59 4.34 4.87 4.68 4.77
Sortino 4.59 4.42 4.89 4.66 4.74
Calmar 29.37 33.53 57.71 62.41 70.33
Omega 1.02 1.02 1.02 1.02 1.02
Max drawdown 0.82% 2.70% 5.44% 6.37% 6.89%
Ulcer index 0.0032 0.0119 0.0256 0.0293 0.0315
Drawdown episodes 47 50 82 88 91
Longest underwater (days) 8.2 13.2 9.8 9.7 9.7
Recovery factor 2.18 2.02 2.28 2.21 2.27
VaR 95% -0.206% -1.174% -1.830% -1.991% -2.164%
VaR 99% -0.210% -1.414% -3.090% -3.354% -3.638%
CVaR 95% -0.208% -1.294% -2.460% -2.673% -2.901%
Skew 1.82 1.57 1.41 1.40 1.40
Excess kurtosis 3.68 2.57 2.25 2.16 2.14
Best day 1.02% 3.19% 6.36% 7.19% 7.84%
Worst day -0.21% -1.41% -3.09% -3.35% -3.64%
Positive days 16 15 16 16 16
Negative days 14 15 14 14 14
Round trips 30 25 21 23 25
Winning / losing trades 30 / 0 25 / 0 21 / 0 23 / 0 25 / 0
Trades per day 1.00 0.83 0.70 0.77 0.83
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 0.8091 2.9846 7.9989 8.7123 8.8386
Average win 0.8091 2.9846 7.9989 8.7123 8.8386
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 0.8091 2.9846 7.9989 8.7123 8.8386
Max win streak 30 25 21 23 25
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 95.54% 95.79% 96.83% 96.59% 96.35%
Turnover 0.02 0.07 0.17 0.20 0.22
Realised P&L 24.27 74.61 167.98 200.38 220.96
Unrealised P&L -6.41 -20.25 -44.08 -59.46 -64.81
Fees paid 3.85 7.89 11.89 14.31 16.95
Fee drag 0.38% 0.79% 1.19% 1.43% 1.70%
Final equity 1017.87 1054.37 1123.90 1140.92 1156.16

3m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 1.55% 4.43% 18.78% 19.84% 22.32%
CAGR 20.62% 69.39% 711.93% 804.19% 1060.11%
Buy and hold 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86%
Edge vs B&H -20.31% -17.43% -3.08% -2.02% 0.46%
Volatility (ann.) 4.45% 9.97% 22.65% 27.61% 29.82%
Sharpe 4.24 5.34 9.36 8.11 8.37
Sortino 4.38 5.44 9.96 8.40 8.70
Calmar 25.16 36.07 175.82 140.40 173.52
Omega 1.04 1.06 1.10 1.07 1.08
Max drawdown 0.82% 1.92% 4.05% 5.73% 6.11%
Ulcer index 0.0037 0.0100 0.0147 0.0214 0.0224
Drawdown episodes 26 36 72 77 78
Longest underwater (days) 9.7 21.7 8.2 8.2 8.2
Recovery factor 1.89 2.30 4.64 3.46 3.65
VaR 95% -0.259% -0.507% -0.701% -1.304% -1.420%
VaR 99% -0.424% -0.828% -0.811% -1.514% -1.539%
CVaR 95% -0.342% -0.668% -0.756% -1.409% -1.479%
Skew 2.56 3.15 2.61 2.05 2.07
Excess kurtosis 8.58 11.74 6.48 4.01 4.04
Best day 1.36% 3.45% 6.96% 7.55% 8.20%
Worst day -0.42% -0.83% -0.81% -1.51% -1.54%
Positive days 14 14 18 16 16
Negative days 15 15 11 13 13
Round trips 18 14 14 14 14
Winning / losing trades 18 / 0 14 / 0 14 / 0 14 / 0 14 / 0
Trades per day 0.60 0.47 0.47 0.47 0.47
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 1.1215 3.7504 14.4981 16.3819 18.1991
Average win 1.1215 3.7504 14.4981 16.3819 18.1991
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 1.1215 3.7504 14.4981 16.3819 18.1991
Max win streak 18 14 14 14 14
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 93.66% 95.44% 89.21% 90.81% 90.81%
Turnover 0.02 0.05 0.20 0.23 0.25
Realised P&L 20.19 52.51 202.97 229.35 254.79
Unrealised P&L -4.66 -8.24 -15.16 -30.98 -31.62
Fees paid 2.18 4.10 8.08 8.97 9.82
Fee drag 0.22% 0.41% 0.81% 0.90% 0.98%
Final equity 1015.53 1044.27 1187.82 1198.37 1223.17

5m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 2.56% 6.27% 13.83% 13.55% 14.78%
CAGR 36.00% 109.68% 383.42% 369.51% 435.25%
Buy and hold 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83%
Edge vs B&H -19.27% -15.55% -8.00% -8.27% -7.05%
Volatility (ann.) 5.21% 10.80% 28.77% 34.28% 37.21%
Sharpe 5.93 6.91 5.62 4.68 4.69
Sortino 6.43 7.45 5.80 4.83 4.84
Calmar 47.56 58.82 64.85 55.12 60.37
Omega 1.09 1.10 1.06 1.05 1.05
Max drawdown 0.76% 1.86% 5.91% 6.70% 7.21%
Ulcer index 0.0043 0.0112 0.0284 0.0351 0.0377
Drawdown episodes 24 31 43 42 42
Longest underwater (days) 21.7 21.7 21.7 21.7 21.7
Recovery factor 3.38 3.37 2.34 2.02 2.05
VaR 95% -0.168% -0.413% -1.756% -1.946% -2.076%
VaR 99% -0.289% -0.495% -2.954% -3.207% -3.477%
CVaR 95% -0.228% -0.454% -2.355% -2.577% -2.776%
Skew 3.78 3.46 1.72 1.58 1.59
Excess kurtosis 15.59 12.83 3.27 2.72 2.74
Best day 1.94% 4.28% 6.88% 7.56% 8.21%
Worst day -0.29% -0.50% -2.95% -3.21% -3.48%
Positive days 16 15 15 15 15
Negative days 14 15 15 15 15
Round trips 13 10 8 9 9
Winning / losing trades 13 / 0 10 / 0 8 / 0 9 / 0 9 / 0
Trades per day 0.43 0.33 0.27 0.30 0.30
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 2.3584 7.1770 20.8949 21.0852 23.0109
Average win 2.3584 7.1770 20.8949 21.0852 23.0109
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 2.3584 7.1770 20.8949 21.0852 23.0109
Max win streak 13 10 8 9 9
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 91.74% 92.67% 91.86% 92.44% 92.44%
Turnover 0.03 0.07 0.17 0.19 0.21
Realised P&L 30.66 71.77 167.16 189.77 207.10
Unrealised P&L -5.06 -9.02 -28.89 -54.22 -59.26
Fees paid 1.68 3.07 4.66 5.89 6.45
Fee drag 0.17% 0.31% 0.47% 0.59% 0.64%
Final equity 1025.60 1062.75 1138.27 1135.54 1147.84

Every number on this page is read from the run record that produced it — the audit pipeline writes the page and the record together, so the two cannot drift apart.

What the guard is, and what a better number under it means. The break-even guard refuses any exit below average entry plus fees. It cannot improve a strategy's judgement — it can only stop it selling at a loss, which means holding the position instead. Across the pack that turns a strategy that churned into one that buys and waits: trade counts collapse and time in market rises towards 100%. In a window where the asset itself rose, that reads as a much better return while being strictly less of a strategy.

So read the return next to round trips, time in market and edge vs buy and hold. The last of those is the one that matters: not one strategy in this matrix beat simply holding the asset, in either run.

Ignore the win rate and the profit factor under the guard. Both count closed trades only, and the guard closes nothing at a loss — in all 101 guarded runs the number of losing closed trades is exactly zero. So the win rate goes to 100% and the profit factor becomes undefined for arithmetic reasons, while the losses sit in the position that is still open. The unrealised row is where they went.