← Choppiness_Regime

Choppiness_Regime — metrics

Unguarded: PASSGuarded: FAIL · 1 failDirectionalgunbot-quant

BTCUSDT · 2026-08-13 01:50 → 2026-09-12 01:50 UTC (30 days) · 0.03% fee + 2 bps slippage · 1,000 quote, one figure for every cell

The same document for both runs of the same measurement — first as the strategy ships, then with the break-even guard. Everything else about the two runs is identical.

As it ships PASS

Exits: the strategy's own exits, stops included

The metric set the portfolio dashboard reports, computed per cell so a backtested configuration and a running one read on the same axes. Portfolio-level measures (concentration, pairwise correlation, beta against a benchmark) are omitted: one strategy on one pair has no cross-sectional structure to measure, and printing a null would imply the number exists.

1m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return -1.24% -6.42% -33.07% -68.72% -73.12%
CAGR -14.10% -55.41% -99.24% -100.00% -100.00%
Buy and hold 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88%
Edge vs B&H -23.12% -28.30% -54.95% -90.60% -95.00%
Volatility (ann.) 0.56% 4.35% 15.83% 27.26% 30.24%
Sharpe -27.32 -18.53 -30.77 -51.73 -52.71
Sortino -13.92 -14.81 -27.54 -51.86 -53.55
Calmar -11.36 -8.63 -3.00 -1.46 -1.37
Omega 0.24 0.52 0.72 0.72 0.72
Max drawdown 1.24% 6.42% 33.07% 68.72% 73.12%
Ulcer index 0.0098 0.0398 0.1976 0.4195 0.4519
Drawdown episodes 1 1 1 1 1
Longest underwater (days) 27.9 29.9 30.0 30.0 30.0
Recovery factor -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00
VaR 95% -0.347% -0.990% -3.026% -6.162% -7.289%
VaR 99% -0.370% -1.013% -3.198% -6.365% -7.459%
CVaR 95% -0.358% -1.002% -3.112% -6.263% -7.374%
Skew -2.72 -0.45 0.65 1.50 1.14
Excess kurtosis 6.61 1.64 1.14 2.44 1.49
Best day 0.01% 0.63% 1.63% 2.50% 2.25%
Worst day -0.37% -1.01% -3.20% -6.36% -7.46%
Positive days 5 2 3 2 2
Negative days 16 27 27 28 28
Round trips 109 358 951 1,827 1,918
Winning / losing trades 1 / 108 11 / 347 44 / 907 153 / 1,674 164 / 1,754
Trades per day 3.63 11.93 31.70 60.90 63.93
Win rate 0.92% 3.07% 4.63% 8.37% 8.55%
Profit factor 0.01 0.18 0.25 0.31 0.31
Payoff ratio 1.01 5.65 5.12 3.38 3.34
Expectancy -0.1139 -0.1794 -0.3477 -0.3761 -0.3812
Average win 0.1177 1.2728 2.4840 2.0056 2.0274
Average loss 0.1160 0.2255 0.4850 0.5938 0.6064
Average trade -0.1139 -0.1794 -0.3477 -0.3761 -0.3812
Max win streak 1 2 3 2 2
Max loss streak 81 112 116 74 68
Time in market 2.23% 7.25% 27.39% 49.78% 51.44%
Turnover 0.01 0.09 0.55 1.30 1.40
Realised P&L -12.41 -64.23 -330.62 -687.10 -731.16
Unrealised P&L -0.00 0.00 -0.07 -0.07 -0.06
Fees paid 8.18 46.03 229.83 478.10 510.92
Fee drag 0.82% 4.60% 22.98% 47.81% 51.09%
Final equity 987.59 935.77 669.30 312.83 268.78

3m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return -0.11% -0.27% -2.07% -24.33% -28.99%
CAGR -1.29% -3.27% -22.44% -96.64% -98.45%
Buy and hold 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86%
Edge vs B&H -21.97% -22.13% -23.93% -46.19% -50.85%
Volatility (ann.) 0.33% 2.13% 14.21% 25.18% 28.48%
Sharpe -3.93 -1.55 -1.72 -13.34 -14.48
Sortino -0.40 -1.15 -1.44 -14.03 -15.45
Calmar -9.47 -5.54 -4.19 -3.41 -2.96
Omega 0.66 0.92 0.96 0.86 0.86
Max drawdown 0.14% 0.59% 5.36% 28.36% 33.26%
Ulcer index 0.0010 0.0035 0.0346 0.1493 0.1775
Drawdown episodes 1 4 8 19 20
Longest underwater (days) 27.2 23.4 21.7 21.7 21.7
Recovery factor -0.78 -0.46 -0.39 -0.86 -0.87
VaR 95% -0.039% -0.178% -0.789% -2.763% -3.280%
VaR 99% -0.071% -0.288% -1.103% -2.835% -4.117%
CVaR 95% -0.055% -0.233% -0.946% -2.799% -3.699%
Skew -3.65 1.20 2.29 1.78 1.53
Excess kurtosis 12.59 6.16 4.27 2.76 2.16
Best day 0.00% 0.40% 3.42% 4.76% 4.59%
Worst day -0.07% -0.29% -1.10% -2.84% -4.12%
Positive days 1 8 5 4 4
Negative days 2 11 24 25 25
Round trips 12 39 177 568 660
Winning / losing trades 1 / 11 4 / 35 17 / 160 58 / 510 68 / 592
Trades per day 0.40 1.30 5.90 18.93 22.00
Win rate 8.33% 10.26% 9.60% 10.21% 10.30%
Profit factor 0.03 0.70 0.84 0.56 0.55
Payoff ratio 0.36 6.15 7.91 4.91 4.83
Expectancy -0.0889 -0.0699 -0.1168 -0.4282 -0.4391
Average win 0.0358 1.6137 6.3876 5.3061 5.3005
Average loss 0.1003 0.2623 0.8079 1.0803 1.0984
Average trade -0.0889 -0.0699 -0.1168 -0.4282 -0.4391
Max win streak 1 2 2 2 2
Max loss streak 11 26 42 29 33
Time in market 0.54% 2.66% 18.74% 48.22% 52.47%
Turnover 0.00 0.02 0.24 0.86 1.01
Realised P&L -1.07 -2.73 -20.67 -243.20 -289.81
Unrealised P&L 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.08 -0.08
Fees paid 0.72 5.54 50.95 214.46 256.12
Fee drag 0.07% 0.55% 5.09% 21.45% 25.61%
Final equity 998.93 997.27 979.33 756.72 710.11

5m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 0.01% 0.04% 4.70% -13.84% -17.47%
CAGR 0.16% 0.50% 74.86% -83.67% -90.33%
Buy and hold 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83%
Edge vs B&H -21.82% -21.79% -17.13% -35.67% -39.30%
Volatility (ann.) 0.34% 2.23% 15.82% 26.14% 29.67%
Sharpe 0.48 0.24 3.61 -6.80 -7.73
Sortino 0.03 0.12 3.17 -7.39 -8.47
Calmar 2.35 0.88 16.18 -3.81 -3.46
Omega 1.06 1.02 1.11 0.90 0.90
Max drawdown 0.07% 0.57% 4.63% 21.96% 26.13%
Ulcer index 0.0006 0.0043 0.0273 0.1193 0.1420
Drawdown episodes 6 6 17 27 28
Longest underwater (days) 23.4 23.4 21.7 21.7 21.7
Recovery factor 0.19 0.07 1.02 -0.63 -0.67
VaR 95% 0.000% -0.063% -0.698% -1.840% -2.588%
VaR 99% -0.003% -0.084% -0.800% -1.983% -2.651%
CVaR 95% -0.000% -0.073% -0.749% -1.912% -2.619%
Skew 4.64 3.36 2.71 2.27 2.04
Excess kurtosis 21.48 13.64 7.27 4.75 4.01
Best day 0.02% 0.31% 5.00% 6.43% 6.97%
Worst day -0.00% -0.08% -0.80% -1.98% -2.65%
Positive days 1 3 4 6 6
Negative days 1 7 25 24 24
Round trips 3 17 90 350 420
Winning / losing trades 1 / 2 3 / 14 8 / 82 34 / 316 42 / 378
Trades per day 0.10 0.57 3.00 11.67 14.00
Win rate 33.33% 17.65% 8.89% 9.71% 10.00%
Profit factor 2.08 1.07 1.63 0.67 0.66
Payoff ratio 4.15 5.01 16.71 6.23 5.94
Expectancy 0.0451 0.0243 0.5247 -0.3943 -0.4151
Average win 0.2608 2.0248 15.2741 8.2722 8.0743
Average loss 0.0628 0.4043 0.9142 1.3268 1.3584
Average trade 0.0451 0.0243 0.5247 -0.3943 -0.4151
Max win streak 1 1 2 2 2
Max loss streak 1 5 39 25 30
Time in market 0.37% 1.41% 15.59% 47.82% 52.47%
Turnover 0.00 0.01 0.20 0.70 0.85
Realised P&L 0.14 0.41 47.22 -138.02 -174.36
Unrealised P&L 0.00 -0.00 -0.22 -0.37 -0.35
Fees paid 0.28 2.25 25.85 136.39 172.59
Fee drag 0.03% 0.22% 2.58% 13.64% 17.26%
Final equity 1000.14 1000.41 1047.00 861.62 825.29

Every number on this page is read from the run record that produced it — the audit pipeline writes the page and the record together, so the two cannot drift apart.

With the break-even guard FAIL · 1 fail

Exits: no exit below average entry plus fees, stops included

The metric set the portfolio dashboard reports, computed per cell so a backtested configuration and a running one read on the same axes. Portfolio-level measures (concentration, pairwise correlation, beta against a benchmark) are omitted: one strategy on one pair has no cross-sectional structure to measure, and printing a null would imply the number exists.

1m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 0.25% 1.67% 10.91% 12.68% 14.36%
CAGR 3.09% 22.40% 252.43% 327.33% 411.78%
Buy and hold 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88%
Edge vs B&H -21.63% -20.21% -10.97% -9.20% -7.52%
Volatility (ann.) 1.50% 8.31% 26.29% 33.91% 36.99%
Sharpe 2.03 2.47 4.92 4.45 4.60
Sortino 1.64 2.69 5.03 4.43 4.57
Calmar 12.14 15.22 57.06 51.52 59.79
Omega 1.03 1.01 1.03 1.02 1.02
Max drawdown 0.25% 1.47% 4.42% 6.35% 6.89%
Ulcer index 0.0004 0.0060 0.0201 0.0270 0.0287
Drawdown episodes 18 22 66 79 79
Longest underwater (days) 12.6 8.6 9.5 9.8 9.8
Recovery factor 0.98 1.14 2.47 2.00 2.09
VaR 95% -0.014% -0.655% -1.834% -1.523% -1.653%
VaR 99% -0.020% -0.885% -2.217% -1.817% -1.817%
CVaR 95% -0.017% -0.770% -2.026% -1.670% -1.735%
Skew 2.69 0.97 1.37 1.89 1.93
Excess kurtosis 7.23 1.33 1.87 3.54 3.65
Best day 0.11% 1.28% 5.21% 6.78% 7.43%
Worst day -0.02% -0.89% -2.22% -1.82% -1.82%
Positive days 16 18 16 16 16
Negative days 7 12 14 14 14
Round trips 17 27 23 30 33
Winning / losing trades 17 / 0 27 / 0 23 / 0 30 / 0 33 / 0
Trades per day 0.57 0.90 0.77 1.00 1.10
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 0.1473 0.9702 6.1772 6.1444 6.2808
Average win 0.1473 0.9702 6.1772 6.1444 6.2808
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 0.1473 0.9702 6.1772 6.1444 6.2808
Max win streak 17 27 23 30 33
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 20.86% 80.54% 94.45% 99.50% 99.54%
Turnover 0.00 0.03 0.14 0.18 0.21
Realised P&L 2.50 26.19 142.08 184.33 207.27
Unrealised P&L -0.00 -9.44 -32.99 -57.54 -63.65
Fees paid 1.85 6.07 12.72 18.61 22.42
Fee drag 0.19% 0.61% 1.27% 1.86% 2.24%
Final equity 1002.50 1016.75 1109.08 1126.79 1143.62

3m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 0.04% 1.34% 12.07% 14.93% 14.77%
CAGR 0.50% 17.52% 300.31% 443.63% 434.64%
Buy and hold 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86%
Edge vs B&H -21.82% -20.52% -9.79% -6.93% -7.09%
Volatility (ann.) 0.50% 2.95% 18.79% 31.29% 38.66%
Sharpe 1.00 5.49 7.48 5.57 4.53
Sortino 0.36 5.14 7.90 5.74 4.55
Calmar 3.62 38.09 105.76 76.91 64.68
Omega 1.05 1.16 1.08 1.05 1.04
Max drawdown 0.14% 0.46% 2.84% 5.77% 6.72%
Ulcer index 0.0006 0.0017 0.0132 0.0252 0.0329
Drawdown episodes 40 16 36 52 56
Longest underwater (days) 23.4 10.8 8.4 18.0 18.0
Recovery factor 0.30 2.90 4.25 2.59 2.20
VaR 95% 0.000% -0.037% -1.056% -1.959% -2.129%
VaR 99% -0.027% -0.149% -1.192% -3.141% -3.407%
CVaR 95% -0.001% -0.093% -1.124% -2.550% -2.768%
Skew 3.23 2.38 2.39 1.44 1.40
Excess kurtosis 15.16 5.48 5.17 2.36 1.92
Best day 0.06% 0.50% 5.66% 6.75% 7.32%
Worst day -0.03% -0.15% -1.19% -3.14% -3.41%
Positive days 4 14 14 15 15
Negative days 1 10 15 14 14
Round trips 3 13 20 21 21
Winning / losing trades 3 / 0 13 / 0 20 / 0 21 / 0 21 / 0
Trades per day 0.10 0.43 0.67 0.70 0.70
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 0.1376 1.0273 6.7331 8.6073 10.0413
Average win 0.1376 1.0273 6.7331 8.6073 10.0413
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 0.1376 1.0273 6.7331 8.6073 10.0413
Max win streak 3 13 20 21 21
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 4.25% 14.26% 82.02% 98.79% 99.50%
Turnover 0.00 0.01 0.13 0.18 0.21
Realised P&L 0.41 13.35 134.66 180.75 210.87
Unrealised P&L -0.00 -0.00 -13.91 -31.46 -63.15
Fees paid 0.30 2.86 11.09 12.87 14.37
Fee drag 0.03% 0.29% 1.11% 1.29% 1.44%
Final equity 1000.41 1013.35 1120.75 1149.30 1147.72

5m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 0.03% 2.32% 9.60% 16.78% 17.23%
CAGR 0.36% 32.23% 205.11% 560.28% 591.51%
Buy and hold 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83%
Edge vs B&H -21.80% -19.51% -12.23% -5.05% -4.60%
Volatility (ann.) 0.49% 4.85% 21.08% 32.67% 38.93%
Sharpe 0.72 5.79 5.40 5.94 5.16
Sortino 0.64 8.11 5.61 6.31 5.36
Calmar 2.09 39.07 40.53 99.18 87.27
Omega 1.07 1.42 1.08 1.06 1.05
Max drawdown 0.17% 0.83% 5.06% 5.65% 6.78%
Ulcer index 0.0005 0.0043 0.0201 0.0256 0.0323
Drawdown episodes 6 8 30 44 47
Longest underwater (days) 23.4 23.4 21.7 9.7 9.7
Recovery factor 0.17 2.82 1.90 2.97 2.54
VaR 95% -0.000% -0.054% -0.933% -1.909% -2.075%
VaR 99% -0.000% -0.132% -1.136% -3.205% -3.477%
CVaR 95% -0.000% -0.093% -1.034% -2.557% -2.776%
Skew 3.43 4.89 2.57 1.38 1.37
Excess kurtosis 10.46 22.87 6.90 1.91 1.78
Best day 0.02% 2.31% 5.75% 6.87% 7.86%
Worst day -0.00% -0.13% -1.14% -3.21% -3.48%
Positive days 13 12 16 16 16
Negative days 12 10 13 14 14
Round trips 2 7 11 14 15
Winning / losing trades 2 / 0 7 / 0 11 / 0 14 / 0 15 / 0
Trades per day 0.07 0.23 0.37 0.47 0.50
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 0.1464 3.3183 11.8808 14.1262 15.6350
Average win 0.1464 3.3183 11.8808 14.1262 15.6350
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 0.1464 3.3183 11.8808 14.1262 15.6350
Max win streak 2 7 11 14 15
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 0.81% 10.38% 72.39% 98.50% 98.95%
Turnover 0.00 0.02 0.13 0.20 0.23
Realised P&L 0.29 23.23 130.69 197.77 234.53
Unrealised P&L 0.00 -0.00 -34.67 -29.95 -62.26
Fees paid 0.20 1.38 6.15 8.79 10.53
Fee drag 0.02% 0.14% 0.61% 0.88% 1.05%
Final equity 1000.29 1023.23 1096.02 1167.82 1172.26

Every number on this page is read from the run record that produced it — the audit pipeline writes the page and the record together, so the two cannot drift apart.

What the guard is, and what a better number under it means. The break-even guard refuses any exit below average entry plus fees. It cannot improve a strategy's judgement — it can only stop it selling at a loss, which means holding the position instead. Across the pack that turns a strategy that churned into one that buys and waits: trade counts collapse and time in market rises towards 100%. In a window where the asset itself rose, that reads as a much better return while being strictly less of a strategy.

So read the return next to round trips, time in market and edge vs buy and hold. The last of those is the one that matters: not one strategy in this matrix beat simply holding the asset, in either run.

Ignore the win rate and the profit factor under the guard. Both count closed trades only, and the guard closes nothing at a loss — in all 101 guarded runs the number of losing closed trades is exactly zero. So the win rate goes to 100% and the profit factor becomes undefined for arithmetic reasons, while the losses sit in the position that is still open. The unrealised row is where they went.