← Confluence_Vote

Confluence_Vote — metrics

Unguarded: WARN · 7 warnGuarded: WARN · 7 warnDirectionalgunbot-quant

BTCUSDT · 2026-08-13 01:50 → 2026-09-12 01:50 UTC (30 days) · 0.03% fee + 2 bps slippage · 1,000 quote, one figure for every cell

The same document for both runs of the same measurement — first as the strategy ships, then with the break-even guard. Everything else about the two runs is identical.

As it ships WARN · 7 warn

Exits: the strategy's own exits, stops included

The metric set the portfolio dashboard reports, computed per cell so a backtested configuration and a running one read on the same axes. Portfolio-level measures (concentration, pairwise correlation, beta against a benchmark) are omitted: one strategy on one pair has no cross-sectional structure to measure, and printing a null would imply the number exists.

1m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 0.00% 0.00% -77.22% -66.86% -69.97%
CAGR 0.00% 0.00% -100.00% -100.00% -100.00%
Buy and hold 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88%
Edge vs B&H -21.88% -21.88% -99.10% -88.74% -91.85%
Volatility (ann.) 0.00% 0.00% 12.13% 28.00% 30.56%
Sharpe 0.00 0.00 -148.33 -47.84 -47.73
Sortino 0.00 0.00 -149.66 -48.87 -48.79
Calmar 0.00 0.00 -1.29 -1.49 -1.43
Omega 0.00 0.00 0.26 0.74 0.74
Max drawdown 0.00% 0.00% 77.22% 66.94% 70.05%
Ulcer index 0.0000 0.0000 0.5267 0.4030 0.4261
Drawdown episodes 0 0 1 3 3
Longest underwater (days) 0.0 0.0 30.0 29.9 29.9
Recovery factor 0.00 0.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00
VaR 95% 0.000% 0.000% -6.208% -6.500% -6.993%
VaR 99% 0.000% 0.000% -6.469% -6.860% -7.154%
CVaR 95% 0.000% 0.000% -6.338% -6.680% -7.074%
Skew 0.00 0.00 -0.20 1.20 1.25
Excess kurtosis 0.00 0.00 -0.68 1.37 1.42
Best day 0.00% 0.00% -3.04% 2.40% 2.70%
Worst day 0.00% 0.00% -6.47% -6.86% -7.15%
Positive days 0 0 0 2 2
Negative days 0 0 30 28 28
Round trips 0 0 5,400 1,744 1,743
Winning / losing trades 0 / 0 0 / 0 174 / 5,226 160 / 1,584 161 / 1,582
Trades per day 0.00 0.00 180.00 58.13 58.10
Win rate 0.00% 0.00% 3.22% 9.17% 9.24%
Profit factor 0.00 0.00 0.07 0.33 0.33
Payoff ratio 0.00 0.00 1.96 3.27 3.27
Expectancy 0.0000 0.0000 -0.1430 -0.3833 -0.4014
Average win 0.0000 0.0000 0.3095 2.0631 2.1698
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.1581 0.6304 0.6631
Average trade 0.0000 0.0000 -0.1430 -0.3833 -0.4014
Max win streak 0 0 3 3 3
Max loss streak 0 0 544 75 75
Time in market 0.00% 0.00% 23.02% 53.87% 53.87%
Turnover 0.00 0.00 0.88 1.33 1.40
Realised P&L 0.00 0.00 -772.20 -668.49 -699.61
Unrealised P&L 0.00 0.00 -0.02 -0.07 -0.06
Fees paid 0.00 0.00 475.94 474.07 494.87
Fee drag 0.00% 0.00% 47.59% 47.41% 49.49%
Final equity 1000.00 1000.00 227.78 331.44 300.33

3m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 0.00% 0.00% -35.41% -27.11% -29.40%
CAGR 0.00% 0.00% -99.51% -97.87% -98.55%
Buy and hold 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86%
Edge vs B&H -21.86% -21.86% -57.27% -48.97% -51.26%
Volatility (ann.) 0.00% 0.00% 12.45% 26.70% 29.03%
Sharpe 0.00 0.00 -42.67 -14.27 -14.45
Sortino 0.00 0.00 -47.50 -15.11 -15.33
Calmar 0.00 0.00 -2.81 -3.11 -2.95
Omega 0.00 0.00 0.48 0.86 0.86
Max drawdown 0.00% 0.00% 35.41% 31.42% 33.43%
Ulcer index 0.0000 0.0000 0.2164 0.1692 0.1778
Drawdown episodes 0 0 1 22 21
Longest underwater (days) 0.0 0.0 30.0 21.7 21.7
Recovery factor 0.00 0.00 -1.00 -0.86 -0.88
VaR 95% 0.000% 0.000% -2.460% -2.911% -3.394%
VaR 99% 0.000% 0.000% -2.838% -3.788% -3.479%
CVaR 95% 0.000% 0.000% -2.649% -3.349% -3.437%
Skew 0.00 0.00 1.77 1.69 1.73
Excess kurtosis 0.00 0.00 5.53 2.50 2.50
Best day 0.00% 0.00% 1.71% 4.35% 4.59%
Worst day 0.00% 0.00% -2.84% -3.79% -3.48%
Positive days 0 0 1 4 4
Negative days 0 0 28 25 25
Round trips 0 0 1,786 611 610
Winning / losing trades 0 / 0 0 / 0 147 / 1,639 67 / 544 68 / 542
Trades per day 0.00 0.00 59.54 20.37 20.33
Win rate 0.00% 0.00% 8.23% 10.97% 11.15%
Profit factor 0.00 0.00 0.22 0.54 0.54
Payoff ratio 0.00 0.00 2.50 4.39 4.30
Expectancy 0.0000 0.0000 -0.1982 -0.4437 -0.4820
Average win 0.0000 0.0000 0.6960 4.7579 5.0783
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.2785 1.0843 1.1796
Average trade 0.0000 0.0000 -0.1982 -0.4437 -0.4820
Max win streak 0 0 5 3 3
Max loss streak 0 0 158 39 34
Time in market 0.00% 0.00% 23.02% 54.01% 54.01%
Turnover 0.00 0.00 0.56 0.91 0.98
Realised P&L 0.00 0.00 -354.07 -271.09 -294.03
Unrealised P&L 0.00 0.00 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00
Fees paid 0.00 0.00 242.37 227.94 245.91
Fee drag 0.00% 0.00% 24.24% 22.79% 24.59%
Final equity 1000.00 1000.00 645.93 728.91 705.97

5m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 0.00% 0.00% -20.12% -16.47% -17.95%
CAGR 0.00% 0.00% -93.50% -88.80% -90.99%
Buy and hold 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83%
Edge vs B&H -21.83% -21.83% -41.95% -38.30% -39.77%
Volatility (ann.) 0.00% 0.00% 14.12% 27.60% 30.36%
Sharpe 0.00 0.00 -19.29 -7.79 -7.77
Sortino 0.00 0.00 -23.65 -8.49 -8.37
Calmar 0.00 0.00 -4.63 -3.65 -3.48
Omega 0.00 0.00 0.63 0.90 0.90
Max drawdown 0.00% 0.00% 20.21% 24.32% 26.12%
Ulcer index 0.0000 0.0000 0.1152 0.1328 0.1437
Drawdown episodes 0 0 2 25 24
Longest underwater (days) 0.0 0.0 29.9 21.7 21.7
Recovery factor 0.00 0.00 -1.00 -0.68 -0.69
VaR 95% 0.000% 0.000% -1.785% -2.516% -2.726%
VaR 99% 0.000% 0.000% -2.191% -2.641% -2.945%
CVaR 95% 0.000% 0.000% -1.988% -2.579% -2.836%
Skew 0.00 0.00 2.73 2.16 2.13
Excess kurtosis 0.00 0.00 9.54 4.38 4.43
Best day 0.00% 0.00% 4.23% 6.82% 7.30%
Worst day 0.00% 0.00% -2.19% -2.64% -2.95%
Positive days 0 0 3 6 5
Negative days 0 0 27 24 25
Round trips 0 0 1,095 365 365
Winning / losing trades 0 / 0 0 / 0 123 / 972 38 / 327 37 / 328
Trades per day 0.00 0.00 36.50 12.17 12.17
Win rate 0.00% 0.00% 11.23% 10.41% 10.14%
Profit factor 0.00 0.00 0.40 0.64 0.64
Payoff ratio 0.00 0.00 3.14 5.51 5.66
Expectancy 0.0000 0.0000 -0.1837 -0.4512 -0.4917
Average win 0.0000 0.0000 1.0780 7.7075 8.5698
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.3434 1.3993 1.5138
Average trade 0.0000 0.0000 -0.1837 -0.4512 -0.4917
Max win streak 0 0 3 2 2
Max loss streak 0 0 101 54 54
Time in market 0.00% 0.00% 24.20% 53.70% 53.70%
Turnover 0.00 0.00 0.47 0.75 0.81
Realised P&L 0.00 0.00 -201.18 -164.68 -179.46
Unrealised P&L 0.00 0.00 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00
Fees paid 0.00 0.00 164.32 142.66 152.30
Fee drag 0.00% 0.00% 16.43% 14.27% 15.23%
Final equity 1000.00 1000.00 798.82 835.32 820.54

Every number on this page is read from the run record that produced it — the audit pipeline writes the page and the record together, so the two cannot drift apart.

With the break-even guard WARN · 7 warn

Exits: no exit below average entry plus fees, stops included

The metric set the portfolio dashboard reports, computed per cell so a backtested configuration and a running one read on the same axes. Portfolio-level measures (concentration, pairwise correlation, beta against a benchmark) are omitted: one strategy on one pair has no cross-sectional structure to measure, and printing a null would imply the number exists.

1m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 0.00% 0.00% 2.35% 16.55% 17.96%
CAGR 0.00% 0.00% 32.61% 544.30% 645.86%
Buy and hold 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88%
Edge vs B&H -21.88% -21.88% -19.53% -5.33% -3.92%
Volatility (ann.) 0.00% 0.00% 20.53% 36.27% 39.40%
Sharpe 0.00 0.00 1.48 5.32 5.30
Sortino 0.00 0.00 1.48 5.30 5.28
Calmar 0.00 0.00 5.89 85.67 93.77
Omega 0.00 0.00 1.01 1.03 1.02
Max drawdown 0.00% 0.00% 5.53% 6.35% 6.89%
Ulcer index 0.0000 0.0000 0.0223 0.0274 0.0298
Drawdown episodes 0 0 28 103 100
Longest underwater (days) 0.0 0.0 21.7 9.5 9.5
Recovery factor 0.00 0.00 0.42 2.60 2.61
VaR 95% 0.000% 0.000% -1.236% -1.992% -2.164%
VaR 99% 0.000% 0.000% -1.814% -2.532% -2.749%
CVaR 95% 0.000% 0.000% -1.525% -2.262% -2.457%
Skew 0.00 0.00 0.96 1.58 1.57
Excess kurtosis 0.00 0.00 1.67 2.28 2.24
Best day 0.00% 0.00% 2.90% 7.49% 8.11%
Worst day 0.00% 0.00% -1.81% -2.53% -2.75%
Positive days 0 0 16 16 16
Negative days 0 0 14 14 14
Round trips 0 0 79 35 36
Winning / losing trades 0 / 0 0 / 0 79 / 0 35 / 0 36 / 0
Trades per day 0.00 0.00 2.63 1.17 1.20
Win rate 0.00% 0.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor 0.00 0.00 ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio 0.00 0.00 ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 0.0000 0.0000 0.8728 6.4281 6.8118
Average win 0.0000 0.0000 0.8728 6.4281 6.8118
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 0.0000 0.0000 0.8728 6.4281 6.8118
Max win streak 0 0 79 35 36
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 0.00% 0.00% 99.80% 98.95% 98.91%
Turnover 0.00 0.00 0.07 0.22 0.25
Realised P&L 0.00 0.00 68.95 224.98 245.22
Unrealised P&L 0.00 0.00 -45.48 -59.52 -65.65
Fees paid 0.00 0.00 23.13 22.15 24.92
Fee drag 0.00% 0.00% 2.31% 2.22% 2.49%
Final equity 1000.00 1000.00 1023.47 1165.47 1179.57

3m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 0.00% 0.00% 6.74% 14.44% 15.68%
CAGR 0.00% 0.00% 121.07% 416.32% 488.60%
Buy and hold 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86%
Edge vs B&H -21.86% -21.86% -15.12% -7.42% -6.18%
Volatility (ann.) 0.00% 0.00% 18.18% 35.03% 37.98%
Sharpe 0.00 0.00 4.46 4.86 4.86
Sortino 0.00 0.00 4.63 4.88 4.88
Calmar 0.00 0.00 21.61 67.53 73.04
Omega 0.00 0.00 1.04 1.04 1.04
Max drawdown 0.00% 0.00% 5.60% 6.17% 6.69%
Ulcer index 0.0000 0.0000 0.0241 0.0297 0.0321
Drawdown episodes 0 0 29 62 62
Longest underwater (days) 0.0 0.0 21.7 9.7 9.7
Recovery factor 0.00 0.00 1.20 2.34 2.34
VaR 95% 0.000% 0.000% -1.584% -1.959% -2.129%
VaR 99% 0.000% 0.000% -2.551% -3.141% -3.407%
CVaR 95% 0.000% 0.000% -2.067% -2.550% -2.768%
Skew 0.00 0.00 1.42 1.36 1.36
Excess kurtosis 0.00 0.00 3.63 1.73 1.72
Best day 0.00% 0.00% 4.55% 6.96% 7.55%
Worst day 0.00% 0.00% -2.55% -3.14% -3.41%
Positive days 0 0 16 15 15
Negative days 0 0 13 14 14
Round trips 0 0 56 16 16
Winning / losing trades 0 / 0 0 / 0 56 / 0 16 / 0 16 / 0
Trades per day 0.00 0.00 1.87 0.53 0.53
Win rate 0.00% 0.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor 0.00 0.00 ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio 0.00 0.00 ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 0.0000 0.0000 1.4794 12.6359 13.7797
Average win 0.0000 0.0000 1.4794 12.6359 13.7797
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 0.0000 0.0000 1.4794 12.6359 13.7797
Max win streak 0 0 56 16 16
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 0.00% 0.00% 99.41% 99.65% 99.65%
Turnover 0.00 0.00 0.08 0.20 0.22
Realised P&L 0.00 0.00 82.85 202.17 220.47
Unrealised P&L 0.00 0.00 -15.47 -57.74 -63.65
Fees paid 0.00 0.00 15.69 9.96 10.87
Fee drag 0.00% 0.00% 1.57% 1.00% 1.09%
Final equity 1000.00 1000.00 1067.37 1144.44 1156.83

5m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 0.00% 0.00% 7.46% 17.20% 18.28%
CAGR 0.00% 0.00% 139.97% 589.58% 670.72%
Buy and hold 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83%
Edge vs B&H -21.83% -21.83% -14.37% -4.63% -3.55%
Volatility (ann.) 0.00% 0.00% 24.55% 34.42% 37.43%
Sharpe 0.00 0.00 3.69 5.78 5.64
Sortino 0.00 0.00 3.79 6.02 5.88
Calmar 0.00 0.00 24.10 92.37 96.91
Omega 0.00 0.00 1.04 1.06 1.06
Max drawdown 0.00% 0.00% 5.81% 6.38% 6.92%
Ulcer index 0.0000 0.0000 0.0249 0.0275 0.0302
Drawdown episodes 0 0 28 52 51
Longest underwater (days) 0.0 0.0 21.7 8.2 8.2
Recovery factor 0.00 0.00 1.28 2.69 2.64
VaR 95% 0.000% 0.000% -1.544% -1.910% -2.075%
VaR 99% 0.000% 0.000% -2.605% -2.714% -2.948%
CVaR 95% 0.000% 0.000% -2.074% -2.312% -2.511%
Skew 0.00 0.00 1.69 1.63 1.62
Excess kurtosis 0.00 0.00 3.45 2.61 2.57
Best day 0.00% 0.00% 5.54% 7.56% 8.21%
Worst day 0.00% 0.00% -2.60% -2.71% -2.95%
Positive days 0 0 16 17 17
Negative days 0 0 14 13 13
Round trips 0 0 47 13 14
Winning / losing trades 0 / 0 0 / 0 47 / 0 13 / 0 14 / 0
Trades per day 0.00 0.00 1.57 0.43 0.47
Win rate 0.00% 0.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor 0.00 0.00 ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio 0.00 0.00 ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 0.0000 0.0000 2.6710 17.6044 17.5230
Average win 0.0000 0.0000 2.6710 17.6044 17.5230
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 0.0000 0.0000 2.6710 17.6044 17.5230
Max win streak 0 0 47 13 14
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 0.00% 0.00% 98.69% 98.44% 98.43%
Turnover 0.00 0.00 0.13 0.23 0.25
Realised P&L 0.00 0.00 125.54 228.86 245.32
Unrealised P&L 0.00 0.00 -50.94 -56.86 -62.56
Fees paid 0.00 0.00 12.56 8.37 9.88
Fee drag 0.00% 0.00% 1.26% 0.84% 0.99%
Final equity 1000.00 1000.00 1074.60 1171.99 1182.76

Every number on this page is read from the run record that produced it — the audit pipeline writes the page and the record together, so the two cannot drift apart.

What the guard is, and what a better number under it means. The break-even guard refuses any exit below average entry plus fees. It cannot improve a strategy's judgement — it can only stop it selling at a loss, which means holding the position instead. Across the pack that turns a strategy that churned into one that buys and waits: trade counts collapse and time in market rises towards 100%. In a window where the asset itself rose, that reads as a much better return while being strictly less of a strategy.

So read the return next to round trips, time in market and edge vs buy and hold. The last of those is the one that matters: not one strategy in this matrix beat simply holding the asset, in either run.

Ignore the win rate and the profit factor under the guard. Both count closed trades only, and the guard closes nothing at a loss — in all 101 guarded runs the number of losing closed trades is exactly zero. So the win rate goes to 100% and the profit factor becomes undefined for arithmetic reasons, while the losses sit in the position that is still open. The unrealised row is where they went.