← Connors_RSI2

Connors_RSI2 — metrics

Unguarded: PASSGuarded: PASSDirectionalgunbot-quant

BTCUSDT · 2026-08-13 01:50 → 2026-09-12 01:50 UTC (30 days) · 0.03% fee + 2 bps slippage · 1,000 quote, one figure for every cell

The same document for both runs of the same measurement — first as the strategy ships, then with the break-even guard. Everything else about the two runs is identical.

As it ships PASS

Exits: the strategy's own exits, stops included

The metric set the portfolio dashboard reports, computed per cell so a backtested configuration and a running one read on the same axes. Portfolio-level measures (concentration, pairwise correlation, beta against a benchmark) are omitted: one strategy on one pair has no cross-sectional structure to measure, and printing a null would imply the number exists.

1m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return -4.48% -9.65% -21.98% -50.85% -62.56%
CAGR -42.74% -70.91% -95.12% -99.98% -100.00%
Buy and hold 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88%
Edge vs B&H -26.36% -31.53% -43.86% -72.73% -84.44%
Volatility (ann.) 0.55% 1.10% 2.49% 6.89% 10.06%
Sharpe -102.28 -111.74 -121.23 -125.42 -118.80
Sortino -70.19 -79.14 -88.46 -95.91 -95.78
Calmar -9.54 -7.35 -4.33 -1.97 -1.60
Omega 0.07 0.12 0.17 0.26 0.39
Max drawdown 4.48% 9.65% 21.98% 50.85% 62.56%
Ulcer index 0.0261 0.0564 0.1316 0.3173 0.4034
Drawdown episodes 1 1 1 1 1
Longest underwater (days) 29.9 29.9 29.9 30.0 30.0
Recovery factor -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00
VaR 95% -0.252% -0.503% -1.142% -2.884% -4.025%
VaR 99% -0.293% -0.556% -1.144% -3.087% -4.405%
CVaR 95% -0.273% -0.530% -1.143% -2.986% -4.215%
Skew -0.81 -0.57 -0.01 0.48 0.49
Excess kurtosis 0.41 -0.39 -0.98 -0.25 0.57
Best day -0.06% -0.19% -0.53% -1.38% -1.79%
Worst day -0.29% -0.56% -1.14% -3.09% -4.41%
Positive days 0 0 0 0 0
Negative days 30 30 30 30 30
Round trips 569 759 1,028 1,379 1,875
Winning / losing trades 19 / 550 31 / 728 42 / 986 66 / 1,313 104 / 1,771
Trades per day 18.97 25.30 34.27 45.97 62.50
Win rate 3.34% 4.08% 4.09% 4.79% 5.55%
Profit factor 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.04
Payoff ratio 0.34 0.42 0.56 0.59 0.62
Expectancy -0.0787 -0.1271 -0.2138 -0.3688 -0.3336
Average win 0.0278 0.0568 0.1289 0.2336 0.2272
Average loss 0.0824 0.1350 0.2284 0.3990 0.3666
Average trade -0.0787 -0.1271 -0.2138 -0.3688 -0.3336
Max win streak 3 2 3 3 4
Max loss streak 145 117 140 252 251
Time in market 2.98% 4.50% 7.19% 12.76% 23.76%
Turnover 0.05 0.10 0.23 0.54 0.67
Realised P&L -44.79 -96.50 -219.83 -508.53 -625.56
Unrealised P&L -0.00 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00
Fees paid 27.81 61.97 139.15 314.67 393.22
Fee drag 2.78% 6.20% 13.91% 31.47% 39.32%
Final equity 955.21 903.50 780.17 491.47 374.44

3m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return -1.12% -2.60% -7.26% -17.91% -25.41%
CAGR -12.76% -27.41% -60.03% -90.95% -97.18%
Buy and hold 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86%
Edge vs B&H -22.98% -24.46% -29.12% -39.77% -47.27%
Volatility (ann.) 0.43% 1.05% 2.51% 6.79% 9.80%
Sharpe -32.03 -30.41 -36.47 -35.34 -36.35
Sortino -25.41 -26.05 -31.00 -31.70 -31.66
Calmar -11.44 -10.55 -8.27 -5.06 -3.81
Omega 0.25 0.33 0.39 0.51 0.59
Max drawdown 1.12% 2.60% 7.26% 17.98% 25.51%
Ulcer index 0.0062 0.0147 0.0415 0.1014 0.1566
Drawdown episodes 1 1 1 1 1
Longest underwater (days) 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9
Recovery factor -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00
VaR 95% -0.078% -0.197% -0.415% -0.998% -1.370%
VaR 99% -0.082% -0.199% -0.421% -1.193% -1.552%
CVaR 95% -0.080% -0.198% -0.418% -1.095% -1.461%
Skew -0.05 -0.13 1.58 1.33 0.43
Excess kurtosis -0.92 0.04 3.92 2.85 -0.80
Best day 0.01% 0.05% 0.25% 0.49% -0.28%
Worst day -0.08% -0.20% -0.42% -1.19% -1.55%
Positive days 2 1 1 1 0
Negative days 27 28 28 28 29
Round trips 149 210 330 454 627
Winning / losing trades 16 / 133 32 / 178 58 / 272 72 / 382 107 / 520
Trades per day 4.97 7.00 11.00 15.13 20.90
Win rate 10.74% 15.24% 17.58% 15.86% 17.07%
Profit factor 0.09 0.13 0.15 0.17 0.12
Payoff ratio 0.71 0.73 0.73 0.90 0.61
Expectancy -0.0749 -0.1237 -0.2200 -0.3945 -0.4052
Average win 0.0648 0.1231 0.2292 0.5071 0.3386
Average loss 0.0917 0.1681 0.3158 0.5645 0.5583
Average trade -0.0749 -0.1237 -0.2200 -0.3945 -0.4052
Max win streak 3 3 8 5 7
Max loss streak 32 29 40 70 73
Time in market 2.17% 3.38% 6.79% 12.38% 23.61%
Turnover 0.01 0.03 0.10 0.25 0.33
Realised P&L -11.16 -25.98 -72.60 -179.11 -254.08
Unrealised P&L 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.04 -0.03
Fees paid 7.41 17.79 48.24 129.48 174.30
Fee drag 0.74% 1.78% 4.82% 12.95% 17.43%
Final equity 988.84 974.02 927.40 820.85 745.89

5m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return -0.92% -2.07% -5.42% -13.83% -19.33%
CAGR -10.64% -22.46% -49.23% -83.66% -92.67%
Buy and hold 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83%
Edge vs B&H -22.75% -23.90% -27.25% -35.66% -41.16%
Volatility (ann.) 0.50% 0.99% 2.86% 7.42% 10.12%
Sharpe -22.52 -25.74 -23.70 -24.38 -25.78
Sortino -17.34 -21.35 -18.73 -20.25 -21.69
Calmar -11.56 -10.79 -8.97 -6.03 -4.78
Omega 0.28 0.33 0.40 0.53 0.62
Max drawdown 0.92% 2.08% 5.49% 13.88% 19.39%
Ulcer index 0.0053 0.0120 0.0316 0.0793 0.1063
Drawdown episodes 1 1 1 1 1
Longest underwater (days) 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.9 29.9
Recovery factor -1.00 -0.99 -0.99 -1.00 -1.00
VaR 95% -0.085% -0.156% -0.402% -1.139% -1.587%
VaR 99% -0.117% -0.240% -0.427% -1.228% -2.172%
CVaR 95% -0.101% -0.198% -0.414% -1.183% -1.880%
Skew -0.75 -0.81 -0.21 -0.51 -0.67
Excess kurtosis 0.33 0.35 -0.84 -0.60 0.18
Best day 0.02% 0.03% 0.04% 0.00% 0.18%
Worst day -0.12% -0.24% -0.43% -1.23% -2.17%
Positive days 2 1 2 1 2
Negative days 27 29 28 29 28
Round trips 96 142 199 277 384
Winning / losing trades 14 / 82 24 / 118 38 / 161 58 / 219 92 / 292
Trades per day 3.20 4.73 6.63 9.23 12.80
Win rate 14.58% 16.90% 19.10% 20.94% 23.96%
Profit factor 0.10 0.11 0.11 0.14 0.19
Payoff ratio 0.57 0.53 0.46 0.52 0.59
Expectancy -0.0959 -0.1457 -0.2723 -0.4994 -0.5033
Average win 0.0711 0.1036 0.1755 0.3804 0.4787
Average loss 0.1244 0.1964 0.3780 0.7324 0.8127
Average trade -0.0959 -0.1457 -0.2723 -0.4994 -0.5033
Max win streak 2 3 4 3 5
Max loss streak 24 17 19 32 34
Time in market 2.64% 4.37% 7.08% 13.39% 25.58%
Turnover 0.01 0.03 0.07 0.18 0.28
Realised P&L -9.21 -20.69 -54.19 -138.34 -193.26
Unrealised P&L -0.00 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00
Fees paid 4.78 12.05 29.22 79.32 110.83
Fee drag 0.48% 1.21% 2.92% 7.93% 11.08%
Final equity 990.79 979.31 945.81 861.66 806.74

Every number on this page is read from the run record that produced it — the audit pipeline writes the page and the record together, so the two cannot drift apart.

With the break-even guard PASS

Exits: no exit below average entry plus fees, stops included

The metric set the portfolio dashboard reports, computed per cell so a backtested configuration and a running one read on the same axes. Portfolio-level measures (concentration, pairwise correlation, beta against a benchmark) are omitted: one strategy on one pair has no cross-sectional structure to measure, and printing a null would imply the number exists.

1m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return -0.05% 0.00% -0.16% 0.08% 0.34%
CAGR -0.66% 0.03% -1.97% 0.92% 4.25%
Buy and hold 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88%
Edge vs B&H -21.94% -21.88% -22.04% -21.81% -21.54%
Volatility (ann.) 2.51% 4.42% 8.56% 17.83% 18.06%
Sharpe -0.25 0.03 -0.19 0.14 0.32
Sortino -0.24 0.03 -0.18 0.13 0.31
Calmar -1.23 0.04 -1.21 0.28 1.28
Omega 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
Max drawdown 0.54% 0.93% 1.62% 3.31% 3.33%
Ulcer index 0.0022 0.0037 0.0067 0.0140 0.0144
Drawdown episodes 192 205 174 147 141
Longest underwater (days) 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2
Recovery factor -0.10 0.00 -0.10 0.02 0.10
VaR 95% -0.175% -0.301% -0.529% -1.203% -1.124%
VaR 99% -0.303% -0.519% -0.908% -1.817% -1.815%
CVaR 95% -0.239% -0.410% -0.718% -1.510% -1.470%
Skew -0.11 -0.11 0.13 0.12 0.27
Excess kurtosis 2.15 2.18 1.54 0.23 0.46
Best day 0.31% 0.53% 0.98% 1.88% 2.05%
Worst day -0.30% -0.52% -0.91% -1.82% -1.82%
Positive days 16 17 15 14 14
Negative days 14 13 15 16 16
Round trips 84 113 100 94 104
Winning / losing trades 84 / 0 113 / 0 100 / 0 94 / 0 104 / 0
Trades per day 2.80 3.77 3.33 3.13 3.47
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 0.0471 0.0688 0.1199 0.3108 0.3092
Average win 0.0471 0.0688 0.1199 0.3108 0.3092
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 0.0471 0.0688 0.1199 0.3108 0.3092
Max win streak 84 113 100 94 104
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 87.08% 88.49% 93.82% 96.76% 97.62%
Turnover 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.03 0.03
Realised P&L 3.96 7.78 11.99 29.21 32.15
Unrealised P&L -4.50 -7.75 -13.62 -28.46 -28.73
Fees paid 4.29 9.86 15.18 29.24 32.10
Fee drag 0.43% 0.99% 1.52% 2.92% 3.21%
Final equity 999.45 1000.03 998.37 1000.75 1003.42

3m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 0.23% 0.72% 0.43% 0.89% 1.00%
CAGR 2.78% 9.12% 5.36% 11.41% 12.83%
Buy and hold 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86%
Edge vs B&H -21.63% -21.14% -21.43% -20.97% -20.86%
Volatility (ann.) 1.99% 4.06% 7.84% 16.75% 17.22%
Sharpe 1.39 2.17 0.71 0.73 0.79
Sortino 1.40 2.16 0.68 0.71 0.77
Calmar 6.42 12.11 3.55 3.70 4.06
Omega 1.01 1.02 1.01 1.01 1.01
Max drawdown 0.43% 0.75% 1.51% 3.08% 3.16%
Ulcer index 0.0014 0.0026 0.0060 0.0129 0.0133
Drawdown episodes 184 149 120 112 118
Longest underwater (days) 6.6 6.6 8.2 8.2 8.2
Recovery factor 0.52 0.96 0.28 0.29 0.32
VaR 95% -0.173% -0.297% -0.522% -1.049% -1.049%
VaR 99% -0.282% -0.487% -0.852% -1.701% -1.701%
CVaR 95% -0.228% -0.392% -0.687% -1.375% -1.375%
Skew 0.42 0.46 0.18 0.19 0.26
Excess kurtosis 4.13 2.43 0.91 0.09 0.28
Best day 0.36% 0.64% 0.95% 1.87% 1.98%
Worst day -0.28% -0.49% -0.85% -1.70% -1.70%
Positive days 20 17 15 15 15
Negative days 9 12 14 14 14
Round trips 64 71 66 78 86
Winning / losing trades 64 / 0 71 / 0 66 / 0 78 / 0 86 / 0
Trades per day 2.13 2.37 2.20 2.60 2.87
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 0.0572 0.1367 0.2599 0.4576 0.4378
Average win 0.0572 0.1367 0.2599 0.4576 0.4378
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 0.0572 0.1367 0.2599 0.4576 0.4378
Max win streak 64 71 66 78 86
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 61.38% 75.03% 88.48% 91.78% 94.16%
Turnover 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.04
Realised P&L 3.66 9.71 17.16 35.69 37.65
Unrealised P&L -1.40 -2.51 -12.86 -26.78 -27.68
Fees paid 3.23 6.16 10.06 24.00 26.48
Fee drag 0.32% 0.62% 1.01% 2.40% 2.65%
Final equity 1002.26 1007.20 1004.30 1008.92 1009.97

5m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 0.34% -0.21% -0.43% -0.11% 0.86%
CAGR 4.16% -2.52% -5.13% -1.38% 11.03%
Buy and hold 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83%
Edge vs B&H -21.49% -22.04% -22.26% -21.94% -20.97%
Volatility (ann.) 1.80% 4.20% 8.11% 16.78% 17.12%
Sharpe 2.27 -0.59 -0.61 0.00 0.70
Sortino 2.34 -0.57 -0.60 0.00 0.69
Calmar 9.52 -2.92 -3.40 -0.45 3.62
Omega 1.03 0.99 0.99 1.00 1.01
Max drawdown 0.44% 0.86% 1.51% 3.05% 3.05%
Ulcer index 0.0013 0.0034 0.0063 0.0130 0.0132
Drawdown episodes 152 116 97 83 85
Longest underwater (days) 6.5 8.3 8.3 8.2 8.2
Recovery factor 0.77 -0.24 -0.29 -0.04 0.28
VaR 95% -0.169% -0.289% -0.508% -1.099% -1.021%
VaR 99% -0.290% -0.496% -0.868% -1.736% -1.735%
CVaR 95% -0.229% -0.393% -0.688% -1.417% -1.378%
Skew 0.27 0.09 0.18 0.29 0.50
Excess kurtosis 6.27 1.88 0.57 0.78 1.22
Best day 0.35% 0.53% 0.92% 2.03% 2.32%
Worst day -0.29% -0.50% -0.87% -1.74% -1.73%
Positive days 22 17 16 16 16
Negative days 8 13 14 14 14
Round trips 55 47 38 44 51
Winning / losing trades 55 / 0 47 / 0 38 / 0 44 / 0 51 / 0
Trades per day 1.83 1.57 1.27 1.47 1.70
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 0.0619 0.1105 0.2230 0.5738 0.6919
Average win 0.0619 0.1105 0.2230 0.5738 0.6919
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 0.0619 0.1105 0.2230 0.5738 0.6919
Max win streak 55 47 38 44 51
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 44.24% 75.66% 88.97% 91.67% 93.11%
Turnover 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.03 0.04
Realised P&L 3.41 5.19 8.48 25.25 35.29
Unrealised P&L -0.05 -7.29 -12.79 -26.39 -26.65
Fees paid 2.78 4.09 5.80 13.74 15.73
Fee drag 0.28% 0.41% 0.58% 1.37% 1.57%
Final equity 1003.36 997.91 995.68 998.86 1008.64

Every number on this page is read from the run record that produced it — the audit pipeline writes the page and the record together, so the two cannot drift apart.

What the guard is, and what a better number under it means. The break-even guard refuses any exit below average entry plus fees. It cannot improve a strategy's judgement — it can only stop it selling at a loss, which means holding the position instead. Across the pack that turns a strategy that churned into one that buys and waits: trade counts collapse and time in market rises towards 100%. In a window where the asset itself rose, that reads as a much better return while being strictly less of a strategy.

So read the return next to round trips, time in market and edge vs buy and hold. The last of those is the one that matters: not one strategy in this matrix beat simply holding the asset, in either run.

Ignore the win rate and the profit factor under the guard. Both count closed trades only, and the guard closes nothing at a loss — in all 101 guarded runs the number of losing closed trades is exactly zero. So the win rate goes to 100% and the profit factor becomes undefined for arithmetic reasons, while the losses sit in the position that is still open. The unrealised row is where they went.