← DPO_Reversion

DPO_Reversion — metrics

Unguarded: PASSGuarded: PASSDirectionalgunbot-quant

BTCUSDT · 2026-08-13 01:50 → 2026-09-12 01:50 UTC (30 days) · 0.03% fee + 2 bps slippage · 1,000 quote, one figure for every cell

The same document for both runs of the same measurement — first as the strategy ships, then with the break-even guard. Everything else about the two runs is identical.

As it ships PASS

Exits: the strategy's own exits, stops included

The metric set the portfolio dashboard reports, computed per cell so a backtested configuration and a running one read on the same axes. Portfolio-level measures (concentration, pairwise correlation, beta against a benchmark) are omitted: one strategy on one pair has no cross-sectional structure to measure, and printing a null would imply the number exists.

1m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return -4.33% -9.84% -25.63% -41.34% -43.87%
CAGR -41.63% -71.66% -97.27% -99.85% -99.91%
Buy and hold 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88%
Edge vs B&H -26.21% -31.73% -47.51% -63.22% -65.75%
Volatility (ann.) 0.95% 1.96% 4.85% 9.70% 10.87%
Sharpe -56.77 -64.34 -74.23 -66.83 -64.58
Sortino -37.68 -41.87 -47.07 -44.91 -45.74
Calmar -9.62 -7.28 -3.80 -2.42 -2.28
Omega 0.38 0.42 0.41 0.48 0.50
Max drawdown 4.33% 9.84% 25.63% 41.34% 43.87%
Ulcer index 0.0266 0.0584 0.1530 0.2544 0.2705
Drawdown episodes 1 1 1 1 1
Longest underwater (days) 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9
Recovery factor -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00
VaR 95% -0.246% -0.538% -1.558% -2.398% -2.666%
VaR 99% -0.308% -0.550% -1.820% -2.547% -2.682%
CVaR 95% -0.277% -0.544% -1.689% -2.473% -2.674%
Skew -0.21 0.15 -0.38 0.14 0.07
Excess kurtosis -0.65 -0.86 -0.39 -0.96 -1.01
Best day -0.02% -0.08% -0.43% -0.75% -0.98%
Worst day -0.31% -0.55% -1.82% -2.55% -2.68%
Positive days 0 0 0 0 0
Negative days 30 30 30 30 30
Round trips 541 715 873 817 794
Winning / losing trades 77 / 464 102 / 613 99 / 774 104 / 713 90 / 704
Trades per day 18.03 23.83 29.10 27.23 26.47
Win rate 14.23% 14.27% 11.34% 12.73% 11.34%
Profit factor 0.11 0.11 0.08 0.10 0.08
Payoff ratio 0.69 0.66 0.62 0.68 0.65
Expectancy -0.0800 -0.1377 -0.2936 -0.5060 -0.5525
Average win 0.0724 0.1182 0.2238 0.4385 0.4387
Average loss 0.1053 0.1803 0.3597 0.6437 0.6792
Average trade -0.0800 -0.1377 -0.2936 -0.5060 -0.5525
Max win streak 4 4 5 5 4
Max loss streak 43 50 90 84 97
Time in market 6.22% 10.22% 14.47% 16.03% 17.56%
Turnover 0.05 0.12 0.30 0.50 0.52
Realised P&L -43.28 -98.45 -256.28 -413.38 -438.66
Unrealised P&L -0.00 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00
Fees paid 27.93 63.24 163.47 267.34 278.71
Fee drag 2.79% 6.32% 16.35% 26.73% 27.87%
Final equity 956.72 901.55 743.72 586.62 561.34

3m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return -1.44% -3.52% -9.28% -17.17% -16.93%
CAGR -16.22% -35.32% -69.42% -89.89% -89.54%
Buy and hold 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86%
Edge vs B&H -23.30% -25.38% -31.14% -39.03% -38.79%
Volatility (ann.) 0.82% 2.10% 4.90% 9.73% 11.43%
Sharpe -21.68 -20.77 -24.15 -23.51 -19.69
Sortino -15.10 -14.78 -16.29 -16.71 -15.79
Calmar -11.23 -10.04 -7.48 -5.23 -5.29
Omega 0.57 0.63 0.60 0.65 0.70
Max drawdown 1.44% 3.52% 9.28% 17.19% 16.93%
Ulcer index 0.0090 0.0204 0.0559 0.1069 0.1027
Drawdown episodes 1 1 2 1 1
Longest underwater (days) 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.9 29.9
Recovery factor -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00
VaR 95% -0.133% -0.261% -0.641% -1.274% -1.401%
VaR 99% -0.153% -0.277% -0.646% -1.538% -1.547%
CVaR 95% -0.143% -0.269% -0.643% -1.406% -1.474%
Skew 0.10 0.46 0.07 0.12 -0.29
Excess kurtosis -0.23 -0.30 -1.41 -0.72 -0.77
Best day 0.08% 0.15% 0.03% 0.38% 0.29%
Worst day -0.15% -0.28% -0.65% -1.54% -1.55%
Positive days 5 3 1 1 1
Negative days 23 26 28 28 28
Round trips 179 254 294 279 275
Winning / losing trades 52 / 127 81 / 173 80 / 214 77 / 202 73 / 202
Trades per day 5.97 8.47 9.80 9.30 9.17
Win rate 29.05% 31.89% 27.21% 27.60% 26.55%
Profit factor 0.26 0.30 0.24 0.22 0.23
Payoff ratio 0.63 0.63 0.65 0.58 0.65
Expectancy -0.0807 -0.1385 -0.3156 -0.6154 -0.6158
Average win 0.0964 0.1820 0.3698 0.6399 0.7115
Average loss 0.1532 0.2885 0.5718 1.0939 1.0954
Average trade -0.0807 -0.1385 -0.3156 -0.6154 -0.6158
Max win streak 5 7 5 5 5
Max loss streak 29 32 40 37 35
Time in market 6.60% 11.33% 15.46% 17.28% 19.42%
Turnover 0.02 0.06 0.15 0.27 0.27
Realised P&L -14.44 -35.17 -92.79 -171.69 -169.34
Unrealised P&L -0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fees paid 9.11 22.24 54.62 99.24 107.39
Fee drag 0.91% 2.22% 5.46% 9.92% 10.74%
Final equity 985.56 964.83 907.21 828.31 830.66

5m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return -0.33% -1.19% -2.85% -6.73% -8.47%
CAGR -3.98% -13.51% -29.70% -57.15% -65.93%
Buy and hold 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83%
Edge vs B&H -22.16% -23.01% -24.68% -28.56% -30.30%
Volatility (ann.) 0.85% 1.93% 4.71% 10.82% 12.23%
Sharpe -4.78 -7.51 -7.45 -7.78 -8.74
Sortino -3.79 -5.46 -5.44 -5.88 -6.57
Calmar -10.62 -11.21 -9.28 -7.85 -7.58
Omega 0.85 0.81 0.83 0.82 0.81
Max drawdown 0.37% 1.21% 3.20% 7.28% 8.70%
Ulcer index 0.0025 0.0073 0.0147 0.0286 0.0413
Drawdown episodes 1 2 5 5 2
Longest underwater (days) 29.7 29.7 18.4 18.4 29.7
Recovery factor -0.89 -0.98 -0.89 -0.92 -0.97
VaR 95% -0.063% -0.146% -0.514% -1.131% -1.667%
VaR 99% -0.081% -0.253% -0.568% -1.676% -1.706%
CVaR 95% -0.072% -0.200% -0.541% -1.403% -1.686%
Skew 0.08 -0.33 1.29 0.38 0.23
Excess kurtosis -0.69 0.34 2.72 0.88 1.26
Best day 0.06% 0.11% 0.86% 1.48% 1.64%
Worst day -0.08% -0.25% -0.57% -1.68% -1.71%
Positive days 10 6 7 7 8
Negative days 18 22 21 21 21
Round trips 94 129 156 149 148
Winning / losing trades 40 / 54 57 / 72 63 / 93 64 / 85 59 / 89
Trades per day 3.13 4.30 5.20 4.97 4.93
Win rate 42.55% 44.19% 40.38% 42.95% 39.86%
Profit factor 0.65 0.55 0.59 0.55 0.47
Payoff ratio 0.88 0.70 0.86 0.73 0.71
Expectancy -0.0355 -0.0919 -0.1830 -0.4515 -0.5723
Average win 0.1569 0.2588 0.6391 1.3004 1.2783
Average loss 0.1780 0.3696 0.7399 1.7707 1.7991
Average trade -0.0355 -0.0919 -0.1830 -0.4515 -0.5723
Max win streak 5 5 5 9 5
Max loss streak 12 16 16 12 14
Time in market 6.54% 10.54% 14.07% 16.27% 18.13%
Turnover 0.02 0.04 0.11 0.23 0.24
Realised P&L -3.33 -11.86 -28.55 -67.28 -84.70
Unrealised P&L -0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.00 -0.00
Fees paid 4.77 11.36 31.37 60.25 63.66
Fee drag 0.48% 1.14% 3.14% 6.02% 6.37%
Final equity 996.67 988.14 971.45 932.72 915.30

Every number on this page is read from the run record that produced it — the audit pipeline writes the page and the record together, so the two cannot drift apart.

With the break-even guard PASS

Exits: no exit below average entry plus fees, stops included

The metric set the portfolio dashboard reports, computed per cell so a backtested configuration and a running one read on the same axes. Portfolio-level measures (concentration, pairwise correlation, beta against a benchmark) are omitted: one strategy on one pair has no cross-sectional structure to measure, and printing a null would imply the number exists.

1m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return -0.07% 0.08% 0.46% -0.82% -0.70%
CAGR -0.86% 0.96% 5.80% -9.54% -8.15%
Buy and hold 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88%
Edge vs B&H -21.95% -21.80% -21.42% -22.70% -22.58%
Volatility (ann.) 2.79% 4.89% 9.25% 23.35% 25.43%
Sharpe -0.30 0.22 0.66 -0.31 -0.21
Sortino -0.28 0.21 0.63 -0.30 -0.20
Calmar -1.64 1.06 3.69 -1.64 -1.30
Omega 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
Max drawdown 0.52% 0.90% 1.57% 5.83% 6.28%
Ulcer index 0.0022 0.0038 0.0067 0.0194 0.0209
Drawdown episodes 125 154 120 132 134
Longest underwater (days) 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2
Recovery factor -0.14 0.09 0.30 -0.14 -0.11
VaR 95% -0.175% -0.301% -0.529% -1.523% -1.653%
VaR 99% -0.303% -0.519% -0.908% -1.817% -1.817%
CVaR 95% -0.239% -0.410% -0.718% -1.670% -1.735%
Skew 0.20 0.20 0.39 0.01 0.04
Excess kurtosis 1.11 0.79 0.86 -0.32 -0.69
Best day 0.33% 0.56% 1.09% 1.91% 1.94%
Worst day -0.30% -0.52% -0.91% -1.82% -1.82%
Positive days 16 16 15 16 15
Negative days 14 14 15 14 15
Round trips 62 79 85 86 89
Winning / losing trades 62 / 0 79 / 0 85 / 0 86 / 0 89 / 0
Trades per day 2.07 2.63 2.83 2.87 2.97
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 0.0577 0.1037 0.2089 0.4844 0.5332
Average win 0.0577 0.1037 0.2089 0.4844 0.5332
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 0.0577 0.1037 0.2089 0.4844 0.5332
Max win streak 62 79 85 86 89
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 91.78% 92.97% 94.60% 95.22% 95.39%
Turnover 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.05
Realised P&L 3.58 8.20 17.76 41.66 47.45
Unrealised P&L -4.29 -7.41 -13.11 -49.86 -54.42
Fees paid 3.18 7.34 18.26 37.78 43.36
Fee drag 0.32% 0.73% 1.83% 3.78% 4.34%
Final equity 999.29 1000.79 1004.64 991.79 993.04

3m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return -0.01% 0.23% 0.28% 0.87% 1.78%
CAGR -0.17% 2.88% 3.50% 11.09% 23.97%
Buy and hold 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86%
Edge vs B&H -21.87% -21.63% -21.58% -20.99% -20.08%
Volatility (ann.) 2.31% 4.62% 8.58% 17.34% 17.74%
Sharpe -0.06 0.64 0.44 0.69 1.30
Sortino -0.06 0.61 0.43 0.67 1.27
Calmar -0.35 3.30 2.29 3.58 7.78
Omega 1.00 1.01 1.00 1.01 1.01
Max drawdown 0.50% 0.87% 1.53% 3.10% 3.08%
Ulcer index 0.0019 0.0034 0.0062 0.0126 0.0125
Drawdown episodes 90 101 98 108 113
Longest underwater (days) 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2
Recovery factor -0.03 0.27 0.19 0.28 0.58
VaR 95% -0.174% -0.298% -0.522% -1.050% -1.050%
VaR 99% -0.266% -0.456% -0.846% -1.703% -1.703%
CVaR 95% -0.220% -0.377% -0.684% -1.377% -1.377%
Skew -0.04 0.35 0.27 0.26 0.29
Excess kurtosis 1.84 0.21 0.45 0.66 0.32
Best day 0.29% 0.51% 0.96% 2.00% 2.05%
Worst day -0.27% -0.46% -0.85% -1.70% -1.70%
Positive days 17 14 14 15 15
Negative days 12 15 15 14 14
Round trips 43 47 46 50 53
Winning / losing trades 43 / 0 47 / 0 46 / 0 50 / 0 53 / 0
Trades per day 1.43 1.57 1.53 1.67 1.77
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 0.0950 0.2071 0.3447 0.7132 0.8458
Average win 0.0950 0.2071 0.3447 0.7132 0.8458
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 0.0950 0.2071 0.3447 0.7132 0.8458
Max win streak 43 47 46 50 53
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 73.60% 88.00% 90.72% 91.16% 91.42%
Turnover 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.04
Realised P&L 4.09 9.74 15.86 35.66 44.83
Unrealised P&L -4.23 -7.40 -13.02 -26.98 -27.01
Fees paid 2.23 4.22 8.39 19.80 24.36
Fee drag 0.22% 0.42% 0.84% 1.98% 2.44%
Final equity 999.86 1002.34 1002.83 1008.68 1017.82

5m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 0.51% 1.00% 2.57% 3.61% 3.67%
CAGR 6.39% 12.91% 36.12% 53.93% 55.13%
Buy and hold 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83%
Edge vs B&H -21.32% -20.83% -19.26% -18.22% -18.15%
Volatility (ann.) 1.93% 4.01% 7.72% 17.69% 18.59%
Sharpe 3.21 3.05 4.03 2.53 2.45
Sortino 3.31 3.12 4.16 2.52 2.44
Calmar 21.78 19.66 30.14 22.50 21.98
Omega 1.05 1.04 1.04 1.03 1.03
Max drawdown 0.29% 0.66% 1.20% 2.40% 2.51%
Ulcer index 0.0008 0.0022 0.0042 0.0090 0.0096
Drawdown episodes 152 157 125 122 101
Longest underwater (days) 2.3 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.6
Recovery factor 1.74 1.53 2.14 1.51 1.47
VaR 95% -0.112% -0.296% -0.510% -1.026% -1.024%
VaR 99% -0.208% -0.409% -0.766% -1.532% -1.646%
CVaR 95% -0.160% -0.353% -0.638% -1.279% -1.335%
Skew 0.25 0.26 0.28 0.42 0.50
Excess kurtosis 1.49 0.87 0.10 0.09 0.26
Best day 0.26% 0.54% 0.93% 1.97% 2.16%
Worst day -0.21% -0.41% -0.77% -1.53% -1.65%
Positive days 19 18 18 17 16
Negative days 11 12 12 13 14
Round trips 52 55 58 51 51
Winning / losing trades 52 / 0 55 / 0 58 / 0 51 / 0 51 / 0
Trades per day 1.73 1.83 1.93 1.70 1.70
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 0.0981 0.1937 0.4616 1.0364 1.0741
Average win 0.0981 0.1937 0.4616 1.0364 1.0741
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 0.0981 0.1937 0.4616 1.0364 1.0741
Max win streak 52 55 58 51 51
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 40.96% 60.66% 75.63% 78.74% 79.92%
Turnover 0.01 0.01 0.03 0.05 0.05
Realised P&L 5.10 10.65 26.77 52.85 54.78
Unrealised P&L -0.00 -0.62 -1.11 -16.77 -18.03
Fees paid 2.71 4.91 10.88 20.44 22.50
Fee drag 0.27% 0.49% 1.09% 2.04% 2.25%
Final equity 1005.10 1010.03 1025.67 1036.09 1036.75

Every number on this page is read from the run record that produced it — the audit pipeline writes the page and the record together, so the two cannot drift apart.

What the guard is, and what a better number under it means. The break-even guard refuses any exit below average entry plus fees. It cannot improve a strategy's judgement — it can only stop it selling at a loss, which means holding the position instead. Across the pack that turns a strategy that churned into one that buys and waits: trade counts collapse and time in market rises towards 100%. In a window where the asset itself rose, that reads as a much better return while being strictly less of a strategy.

So read the return next to round trips, time in market and edge vs buy and hold. The last of those is the one that matters: not one strategy in this matrix beat simply holding the asset, in either run.

Ignore the win rate and the profit factor under the guard. Both count closed trades only, and the guard closes nothing at a loss — in all 101 guarded runs the number of losing closed trades is exactly zero. So the win rate goes to 100% and the profit factor becomes undefined for arithmetic reasons, while the losses sit in the position that is still open. The unrealised row is where they went.