← Donchian_Chandelier

Donchian_Chandelier — metrics

Unguarded: PASSGuarded: PASSDirectionalgunbot-quant

BTCUSDT · 2026-08-13 01:50 → 2026-09-12 01:50 UTC (30 days) · 0.03% fee + 2 bps slippage · 1,000 quote, one figure for every cell

The same document for both runs of the same measurement — first as the strategy ships, then with the break-even guard. Everything else about the two runs is identical.

As it ships PASS

Exits: the strategy's own exits, stops included

The metric set the portfolio dashboard reports, computed per cell so a backtested configuration and a running one read on the same axes. Portfolio-level measures (concentration, pairwise correlation, beta against a benchmark) are omitted: one strategy on one pair has no cross-sectional structure to measure, and printing a null would imply the number exists.

1m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return -17.24% -26.60% -47.03% -57.44% -47.02%
CAGR -90.00% -97.68% -99.96% -100.00% -99.96%
Buy and hold 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88%
Edge vs B&H -39.13% -48.48% -68.91% -79.32% -68.90%
Volatility (ann.) 3.10% 8.69% 19.29% 27.21% 32.17%
Sharpe -74.22 -43.23 -39.97 -38.06 -23.87
Sortino -49.27 -34.08 -31.45 -30.55 -20.91
Calmar -5.22 -3.67 -2.13 -1.74 -2.13
Omega 0.54 0.65 0.74 0.79 0.88
Max drawdown 17.24% 26.60% 47.03% 57.45% 47.03%
Ulcer index 0.1008 0.1499 0.2777 0.3453 0.2675
Drawdown episodes 2 2 1 1 1
Longest underwater (days) 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0
Recovery factor -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00
VaR 95% -0.826% -1.454% -3.286% -5.268% -4.380%
VaR 99% -0.838% -1.471% -3.529% -5.290% -4.499%
CVaR 95% -0.832% -1.462% -3.408% -5.279% -4.440%
Skew 1.41 2.33 1.59 1.37 1.86
Excess kurtosis 2.83 5.97 2.77 1.65 2.80
Best day -0.17% 0.89% 1.36% 3.00% 5.73%
Worst day -0.84% -1.47% -3.53% -5.29% -4.50%
Positive days 0 1 2 3 4
Negative days 30 29 28 27 26
Round trips 2,153 1,905 1,605 1,348 972
Winning / losing trades 147 / 2,006 109 / 1,796 148 / 1,457 204 / 1,144 169 / 803
Trades per day 71.77 63.50 53.50 44.93 32.40
Win rate 6.83% 5.72% 9.22% 15.13% 17.39%
Profit factor 0.14 0.23 0.32 0.38 0.50
Payoff ratio 1.85 3.73 3.19 2.13 2.37
Expectancy -0.0801 -0.1396 -0.2930 -0.4261 -0.4837
Average win 0.1840 0.7141 1.5231 1.7193 2.7696
Average loss 0.0994 0.1914 0.4775 0.8086 1.1683
Average trade -0.0801 -0.1396 -0.2930 -0.4261 -0.4837
Max win streak 3 2 3 4 5
Max loss streak 131 160 139 52 27
Time in market 32.27% 38.20% 46.75% 55.05% 67.46%
Turnover 0.23 0.42 0.92 1.28 1.41
Realised P&L -172.41 -265.93 -470.23 -574.34 -470.12
Unrealised P&L -0.03 -0.04 -0.06 -0.09 -0.11
Fees paid 122.96 204.52 362.75 439.41 395.54
Fee drag 12.30% 20.45% 36.28% 43.94% 39.55%
Final equity 827.56 734.03 529.72 425.57 529.77

3m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return -4.62% -5.68% -11.91% -15.55% -14.56%
CAGR -43.77% -50.92% -78.62% -87.21% -85.25%
Buy and hold 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86%
Edge vs B&H -26.48% -27.54% -33.77% -37.41% -36.42%
Volatility (ann.) 3.16% 8.00% 18.98% 26.39% 31.27%
Sharpe -18.19 -8.86 -8.03 -7.66 -5.97
Sortino -13.31 -6.91 -6.67 -6.61 -5.47
Calmar -9.30 -6.65 -4.94 -3.88 -3.35
Omega 0.75 0.87 0.91 0.93 0.95
Max drawdown 4.70% 7.66% 15.92% 22.46% 25.45%
Ulcer index 0.0238 0.0390 0.0836 0.1180 0.1294
Drawdown episodes 3 17 20 31 41
Longest underwater (days) 21.7 21.7 21.7 21.7 21.7
Recovery factor -0.98 -0.74 -0.75 -0.69 -0.57
VaR 95% -0.346% -0.599% -1.348% -1.935% -3.365%
VaR 99% -0.429% -0.611% -1.454% -2.383% -3.538%
CVaR 95% -0.387% -0.605% -1.401% -2.159% -3.452%
Skew 3.09 2.29 2.15 2.07 1.70
Excess kurtosis 10.80 4.56 3.61 3.46 2.61
Best day 0.92% 2.06% 3.56% 5.34% 6.30%
Worst day -0.43% -0.61% -1.45% -2.38% -3.54%
Positive days 3 6 4 5 7
Negative days 26 23 25 24 22
Round trips 676 573 458 369 266
Winning / losing trades 82 / 594 53 / 520 55 / 403 72 / 297 60 / 206
Trades per day 22.53 19.10 15.27 12.30 8.87
Win rate 12.13% 9.25% 12.01% 19.51% 22.56%
Profit factor 0.41 0.60 0.65 0.70 0.73
Payoff ratio 2.97 5.92 4.78 2.90 2.50
Expectancy -0.0684 -0.0991 -0.2600 -0.4214 -0.5482
Average win 0.3921 1.6296 4.0733 5.1071 6.5552
Average loss 0.1319 0.2753 0.8514 1.7617 2.6171
Average trade -0.0684 -0.0991 -0.2600 -0.4214 -0.5482
Max win streak 3 2 2 4 3
Max loss streak 63 50 39 28 24
Time in market 30.67% 39.57% 51.40% 61.52% 73.49%
Turnover 0.11 0.23 0.57 0.89 0.93
Realised P&L -46.22 -56.81 -119.09 -155.51 -145.81
Unrealised P&L 0.00 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00 0.25
Fees paid 39.87 67.35 136.13 171.09 141.51
Fee drag 3.99% 6.73% 13.61% 17.11% 14.15%
Final equity 953.78 943.19 880.91 844.49 854.44

5m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return -2.20% -2.32% -5.25% -6.93% 3.30%
CAGR -23.69% -24.80% -48.13% -58.25% 48.41%
Buy and hold 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83%
Edge vs B&H -24.03% -24.14% -27.08% -28.76% -18.53%
Volatility (ann.) 3.31% 8.20% 19.60% 27.38% 32.78%
Sharpe -8.15 -3.44 -3.25 -3.05 1.37
Sortino -6.46 -2.90 -2.83 -2.78 1.33
Calmar -8.01 -5.02 -3.60 -3.22 3.58
Omega 0.85 0.93 0.95 0.96 1.02
Max drawdown 2.96% 4.94% 13.37% 18.07% 13.53%
Ulcer index 0.0161 0.0265 0.0652 0.0909 0.0591
Drawdown episodes 12 21 21 28 30
Longest underwater (days) 21.7 21.7 21.7 21.7 21.7
Recovery factor -0.74 -0.47 -0.39 -0.38 0.24
VaR 95% -0.197% -0.433% -1.331% -2.054% -1.881%
VaR 99% -0.229% -0.502% -1.410% -2.212% -2.671%
CVaR 95% -0.213% -0.467% -1.370% -2.133% -2.276%
Skew 2.56 2.30 1.84 1.80 1.84
Excess kurtosis 5.51 4.08 2.36 2.64 3.05
Best day 0.78% 1.83% 4.20% 5.27% 7.37%
Worst day -0.23% -0.50% -1.41% -2.21% -2.67%
Positive days 3 6 5 9 10
Negative days 27 24 25 21 20
Round trips 406 340 267 217 141
Winning / losing trades 55 / 351 34 / 306 31 / 236 47 / 170 33 / 108
Trades per day 13.53 11.33 8.90 7.23 4.70
Win rate 13.55% 10.00% 11.61% 21.66% 23.40%
Profit factor 0.59 0.77 0.80 0.82 1.10
Payoff ratio 3.75 6.89 6.08 2.96 3.59
Expectancy -0.0541 -0.0681 -0.1967 -0.3188 0.2352
Average win 0.5693 2.2173 6.7083 6.6096 11.4194
Average loss 0.1518 0.3220 1.1037 2.2343 3.1822
Average trade -0.0541 -0.0681 -0.1967 -0.3188 0.2352
Max win streak 3 3 2 4 5
Max loss streak 35 58 22 19 12
Time in market 32.32% 42.85% 54.98% 64.10% 76.53%
Turnover 0.08 0.17 0.47 0.69 0.72
Realised P&L -21.97 -23.15 -52.52 -69.17 33.16
Unrealised P&L 0.00 -0.00 0.00 -0.11 -0.17
Fees paid 23.66 39.32 81.67 102.57 82.27
Fee drag 2.37% 3.93% 8.17% 10.26% 8.23%
Final equity 978.03 976.85 947.48 930.72 1032.98

Every number on this page is read from the run record that produced it — the audit pipeline writes the page and the record together, so the two cannot drift apart.

With the break-even guard PASS

Exits: no exit below average entry plus fees, stops included

The metric set the portfolio dashboard reports, computed per cell so a backtested configuration and a running one read on the same axes. Portfolio-level measures (concentration, pairwise correlation, beta against a benchmark) are omitted: one strategy on one pair has no cross-sectional structure to measure, and printing a null would imply the number exists.

1m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 1.11% 4.23% 7.52% 11.44% 16.71%
CAGR 14.32% 65.57% 141.68% 273.42% 555.09%
Buy and hold 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88%
Edge vs B&H -20.78% -17.65% -14.36% -10.44% -5.18%
Volatility (ann.) 4.16% 10.16% 29.15% 35.94% 39.34%
Sharpe 3.24 5.01 3.17 3.85 4.97
Sortino 3.26 5.43 3.16 3.79 4.93
Calmar 24.09 37.96 23.74 42.61 80.59
Omega 1.02 1.03 1.02 1.02 1.02
Max drawdown 0.59% 1.73% 5.97% 6.42% 6.89%
Ulcer index 0.0029 0.0070 0.0264 0.0296 0.0333
Drawdown episodes 44 40 60 78 98
Longest underwater (days) 10.1 9.5 18.0 18.0 9.8
Recovery factor 1.86 2.45 1.26 1.78 2.43
VaR 95% -0.302% -0.400% -1.830% -1.990% -2.164%
VaR 99% -0.318% -0.410% -3.090% -3.354% -3.638%
CVaR 95% -0.310% -0.405% -2.460% -2.672% -2.901%
Skew 0.83 2.74 0.80 1.15 1.46
Excess kurtosis 0.48 8.63 1.05 1.49 2.23
Best day 0.57% 2.58% 4.53% 6.19% 8.30%
Worst day -0.32% -0.41% -3.09% -3.35% -3.64%
Positive days 15 16 15 16 16
Negative days 15 14 15 14 14
Round trips 48 36 28 32 28
Winning / losing trades 48 / 0 36 / 0 28 / 0 32 / 0 28 / 0
Trades per day 1.60 1.20 0.93 1.07 0.93
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 0.3252 1.5701 4.5904 5.4084 8.3029
Average win 0.3252 1.5701 4.5904 5.4084 8.3029
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 0.3252 1.5701 4.5904 5.4084 8.3029
Max win streak 48 36 28 32 28
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 98.33% 98.59% 99.03% 98.93% 98.98%
Turnover 0.02 0.06 0.13 0.17 0.23
Realised P&L 15.61 56.52 128.53 173.07 232.48
Unrealised P&L -4.55 -14.21 -53.31 -58.70 -65.42
Fees paid 4.51 8.99 15.47 19.68 19.23
Fee drag 0.45% 0.90% 1.55% 1.97% 1.92%
Final equity 1011.06 1042.31 1075.22 1114.37 1167.06

3m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 1.63% 5.56% 11.66% 14.78% 17.23%
CAGR 21.78% 93.14% 282.65% 435.34% 591.64%
Buy and hold 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86%
Edge vs B&H -20.23% -16.30% -10.20% -7.08% -4.63%
Volatility (ann.) 4.14% 10.25% 26.05% 34.27% 38.41%
Sharpe 4.78 6.48 5.28 5.07 5.23
Sortino 4.95 6.72 5.22 5.03 5.24
Calmar 25.65 53.98 53.62 69.03 87.11
Omega 1.04 1.06 1.05 1.04 1.04
Max drawdown 0.85% 1.73% 5.27% 6.31% 6.79%
Ulcer index 0.0032 0.0081 0.0206 0.0292 0.0318
Drawdown episodes 34 37 51 65 67
Longest underwater (days) 9.5 13.3 8.4 8.2 9.7
Recovery factor 1.92 3.22 2.21 2.34 2.54
VaR 95% -0.212% -0.415% -1.281% -1.959% -2.129%
VaR 99% -0.233% -0.646% -1.523% -3.141% -3.407%
CVaR 95% -0.222% -0.530% -1.402% -2.550% -2.768%
Skew 2.72 2.84 2.15 1.51 1.28
Excess kurtosis 8.77 8.83 4.68 2.51 1.32
Best day 1.21% 3.65% 6.43% 7.36% 7.35%
Worst day -0.23% -0.65% -1.52% -3.14% -3.41%
Positive days 15 15 16 15 15
Negative days 14 14 13 14 14
Round trips 35 23 20 22 15
Winning / losing trades 35 / 0 23 / 0 20 / 0 22 / 0 15 / 0
Trades per day 1.17 0.77 0.67 0.73 0.50
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 0.6651 3.0370 8.2298 9.4408 15.5066
Average win 0.6651 3.0370 8.2298 9.4408 15.5066
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 0.6651 3.0370 8.2298 9.4408 15.5066
Max win streak 35 23 20 22 15
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 96.12% 97.24% 97.40% 97.57% 98.56%
Turnover 0.02 0.07 0.16 0.21 0.23
Realised P&L 23.28 69.85 164.60 207.70 232.60
Unrealised P&L -6.95 -14.26 -47.99 -59.85 -60.33
Fees paid 3.13 5.66 11.31 13.85 10.28
Fee drag 0.31% 0.57% 1.13% 1.38% 1.03%
Final equity 1016.33 1055.59 1116.60 1147.84 1172.27

5m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 2.42% 4.98% 9.28% 12.79% 17.41%
CAGR 33.74% 80.55% 194.24% 332.37% 605.13%
Buy and hold 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83%
Edge vs B&H -19.41% -16.85% -12.55% -9.04% -4.41%
Volatility (ann.) 4.13% 9.08% 26.95% 35.17% 38.42%
Sharpe 7.06 6.56 4.14 4.34 5.28
Sortino 8.03 7.58 4.22 4.44 5.42
Calmar 56.37 55.06 30.29 51.78 83.70
Omega 1.09 1.09 1.05 1.04 1.05
Max drawdown 0.60% 1.46% 6.41% 6.42% 7.23%
Ulcer index 0.0027 0.0081 0.0298 0.0310 0.0316
Drawdown episodes 34 27 34 40 48
Longest underwater (days) 8.4 21.7 21.7 9.7 8.2
Recovery factor 4.04 3.40 1.45 1.99 2.41
VaR 95% -0.170% -0.406% -1.544% -1.909% -2.075%
VaR 99% -0.237% -0.456% -2.606% -3.206% -3.477%
CVaR 95% -0.203% -0.431% -2.075% -2.557% -2.776%
Skew 2.67 2.88 1.43 1.29 1.33
Excess kurtosis 7.09 7.69 2.36 1.64 1.82
Best day 1.27% 2.85% 5.12% 6.48% 7.14%
Worst day -0.24% -0.46% -2.61% -3.21% -3.48%
Positive days 17 17 17 16 17
Negative days 13 13 13 14 13
Round trips 24 18 12 13 14
Winning / losing trades 24 / 0 18 / 0 12 / 0 13 / 0 14 / 0
Trades per day 0.80 0.60 0.40 0.43 0.47
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 1.2048 3.2280 11.9807 14.0463 16.8751
Average win 1.2048 3.2280 11.9807 14.0463 16.8751
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 1.2048 3.2280 11.9807 14.0463 16.8751
Max win streak 24 18 12 13 14
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 95.37% 97.41% 98.50% 98.14% 97.56%
Turnover 0.03 0.06 0.14 0.18 0.24
Realised P&L 28.92 58.10 143.77 182.60 236.25
Unrealised P&L -4.73 -8.34 -51.01 -54.72 -62.11
Fees paid 2.27 3.90 6.56 8.08 9.84
Fee drag 0.23% 0.39% 0.66% 0.81% 0.98%
Final equity 1024.18 1049.76 1092.76 1127.88 1174.14

Every number on this page is read from the run record that produced it — the audit pipeline writes the page and the record together, so the two cannot drift apart.

What the guard is, and what a better number under it means. The break-even guard refuses any exit below average entry plus fees. It cannot improve a strategy's judgement — it can only stop it selling at a loss, which means holding the position instead. Across the pack that turns a strategy that churned into one that buys and waits: trade counts collapse and time in market rises towards 100%. In a window where the asset itself rose, that reads as a much better return while being strictly less of a strategy.

So read the return next to round trips, time in market and edge vs buy and hold. The last of those is the one that matters: not one strategy in this matrix beat simply holding the asset, in either run.

Ignore the win rate and the profit factor under the guard. Both count closed trades only, and the guard closes nothing at a loss — in all 101 guarded runs the number of losing closed trades is exactly zero. So the win rate goes to 100% and the profit factor becomes undefined for arithmetic reasons, while the losses sit in the position that is still open. The unrealised row is where they went.