← Donchian_Reversion_MM

Donchian_Reversion_MM — metrics

Unguarded: PASSGuarded: WARN · 1 warnMM-DCAgunbot-quant

BTCUSDT · 2026-08-13 01:50 → 2026-09-12 01:50 UTC (30 days) · 0.03% fee + 2 bps slippage · 122 quote, one figure for every cell

The same document for both runs of the same measurement — first as the strategy ships, then with the break-even guard. Everything else about the two runs is identical.

As it ships PASS

Exits: the strategy's own exits, stops included

The metric set the portfolio dashboard reports, computed per cell so a backtested configuration and a running one read on the same axes. Portfolio-level measures (concentration, pairwise correlation, beta against a benchmark) are omitted: one strategy on one pair has no cross-sectional structure to measure, and printing a null would imply the number exists.

1m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return -18.64% -26.92% -39.54% -53.53% -59.05%
CAGR -91.87% -97.80% -99.78% -99.99% -100.00%
Buy and hold 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88%
Edge vs B&H -40.52% -48.80% -61.42% -75.41% -80.93%
Volatility (ann.) 5.47% 8.58% 13.76% 17.51% 20.50%
Sharpe -45.88 -44.41 -44.41 -53.17 -52.88
Sortino -39.98 -38.90 -39.40 -47.51 -46.75
Calmar -4.93 -3.63 -2.52 -1.87 -1.69
Omega 0.64 0.66 0.67 0.66 0.65
Max drawdown 18.64% 26.93% 39.54% 53.53% 59.08%
Ulcer index 0.1105 0.1572 0.2319 0.3205 0.4017
Drawdown episodes 1 1 1 1 1
Longest underwater (days) 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0
Recovery factor -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00
VaR 95% -1.260% -1.802% -2.661% -3.793% -5.274%
VaR 99% -1.674% -2.661% -4.223% -5.196% -6.385%
CVaR 95% -1.467% -2.232% -3.442% -4.494% -5.830%
Skew -1.14 -1.07 -0.82 -0.20 0.06
Excess kurtosis 1.65 2.25 1.81 0.32 0.18
Best day -0.21% -0.10% -0.13% -0.51% 0.00%
Worst day -1.67% -2.66% -4.22% -5.20% -6.39%
Positive days 0 0 0 0 1
Negative days 30 30 30 30 29
Round trips 909 938 973 1,016 965
Winning / losing trades 165 / 744 173 / 765 188 / 785 200 / 816 184 / 781
Trades per day 30.30 31.27 32.43 33.87 32.17
Win rate 18.15% 18.44% 19.32% 19.69% 19.07%
Profit factor 0.11 0.12 0.13 0.13 0.12
Payoff ratio 0.49 0.55 0.53 0.54 0.52
Expectancy -0.0250 -0.0350 -0.0496 -0.0643 -0.0747
Average win 0.0166 0.0268 0.0372 0.0498 0.0550
Average loss 0.0342 0.0490 0.0704 0.0922 0.1052
Average trade -0.0250 -0.0350 -0.0496 -0.0643 -0.0747
Max win streak 4 6 7 7 6
Max loss streak 100 102 102 100 97
Time in market 25.93% 27.29% 28.75% 30.14% 28.75%
Turnover 0.23 0.35 0.51 0.70 0.76
Realised P&L -22.74 -32.84 -48.24 -65.30 -72.04
Unrealised P&L -0.00 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00
Fees paid 14.44 20.97 31.08 42.42 45.91
Fee drag 11.84% 17.19% 25.48% 34.77% 37.63%
Final equity 99.26 89.16 73.76 56.70 49.96

3m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return -3.54% -5.27% -8.69% -12.30% -18.45%
CAGR -35.49% -48.28% -66.94% -79.76% -91.64%
Buy and hold 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86%
Edge vs B&H -25.40% -27.13% -30.55% -34.16% -40.31%
Volatility (ann.) 3.64% 5.69% 10.25% 14.29% 17.88%
Sharpe -12.03 -11.56 -10.74 -11.11 -13.79
Sortino -11.19 -10.70 -10.00 -10.33 -12.76
Calmar -9.78 -8.94 -7.56 -6.37 -4.90
Omega 0.81 0.82 0.83 0.84 0.83
Max drawdown 3.63% 5.40% 8.86% 12.53% 18.69%
Ulcer index 0.0218 0.0313 0.0453 0.0649 0.0946
Drawdown episodes 4 2 2 2 2
Longest underwater (days) 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 30.0
Recovery factor -0.98 -0.98 -0.98 -0.98 -0.99
VaR 95% -0.351% -0.559% -0.851% -1.245% -1.915%
VaR 99% -0.701% -1.113% -1.673% -2.235% -2.540%
CVaR 95% -0.526% -0.836% -1.262% -1.740% -2.227%
Skew -1.24 -1.08 -0.69 -0.71 -0.11
Excess kurtosis 3.64 2.68 1.78 1.13 -0.25
Best day 0.21% 0.31% 0.66% 0.72% 0.90%
Worst day -0.70% -1.11% -1.67% -2.24% -2.54%
Positive days 6 8 6 9 8
Negative days 23 21 23 20 21
Round trips 230 252 267 297 324
Winning / losing trades 93 / 137 109 / 143 112 / 155 126 / 171 127 / 197
Trades per day 7.67 8.40 8.90 9.90 10.80
Win rate 40.43% 43.25% 41.95% 42.42% 39.20%
Profit factor 0.33 0.39 0.37 0.39 0.38
Payoff ratio 0.49 0.51 0.51 0.53 0.58
Expectancy -0.0188 -0.0255 -0.0397 -0.0505 -0.0695
Average win 0.0228 0.0372 0.0555 0.0769 0.1069
Average loss 0.0470 0.0734 0.1085 0.1444 0.1832
Average trade -0.0188 -0.0255 -0.0397 -0.0505 -0.0695
Max win streak 7 8 7 7 6
Max loss streak 23 22 22 25 23
Time in market 19.20% 21.54% 23.76% 25.99% 28.51%
Turnover 0.07 0.12 0.19 0.28 0.41
Realised P&L -4.32 -6.44 -10.61 -15.01 -22.51
Unrealised P&L -0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fees paid 3.71 5.80 9.07 13.99 19.44
Fee drag 3.04% 4.75% 7.44% 11.47% 15.93%
Final equity 117.68 115.56 111.39 106.99 99.49

5m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return -1.02% -1.36% -2.23% -2.90% -3.50%
CAGR -11.70% -15.37% -23.95% -30.14% -35.14%
Buy and hold 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83%
Edge vs B&H -22.85% -23.19% -24.05% -24.73% -25.32%
Volatility (ann.) 3.14% 4.78% 8.45% 12.50% 15.33%
Sharpe -3.94 -3.46 -3.20 -2.81 -2.75
Sortino -3.89 -3.41 -3.12 -2.81 -2.65
Calmar -9.21 -9.44 -8.93 -8.01 -6.45
Omega 0.91 0.93 0.93 0.95 0.95
Max drawdown 1.27% 1.63% 2.68% 3.76% 5.45%
Ulcer index 0.0069 0.0084 0.0135 0.0187 0.0216
Drawdown episodes 1 1 17 33 25
Longest underwater (days) 29.7 29.7 15.0 15.0 15.0
Recovery factor -0.80 -0.84 -0.83 -0.77 -0.64
VaR 95% -0.173% -0.325% -0.518% -0.605% -0.903%
VaR 99% -0.307% -0.430% -0.991% -1.193% -1.697%
CVaR 95% -0.240% -0.377% -0.754% -0.899% -1.300%
Skew -0.42 -0.29 -1.05 -0.10 0.12
Excess kurtosis -0.48 -0.64 2.21 -0.07 -0.43
Best day 0.14% 0.22% 0.39% 0.80% 1.40%
Worst day -0.31% -0.43% -0.99% -1.19% -1.70%
Positive days 13 12 12 10 12
Negative days 17 18 18 20 18
Round trips 129 140 156 174 198
Winning / losing trades 63 / 66 70 / 70 80 / 76 92 / 82 101 / 97
Trades per day 4.30 4.67 5.20 5.80 6.60
Win rate 48.84% 50.00% 51.28% 52.87% 51.01%
Profit factor 0.63 0.68 0.69 0.75 0.80
Payoff ratio 0.66 0.68 0.66 0.67 0.77
Expectancy -0.0096 -0.0119 -0.0174 -0.0204 -0.0215
Average win 0.0335 0.0514 0.0762 0.1161 0.1722
Average loss 0.0508 0.0752 0.1160 0.1735 0.2233
Average trade -0.0096 -0.0119 -0.0174 -0.0204 -0.0215
Max win streak 7 9 6 10 9
Max loss streak 9 9 9 11 13
Time in market 15.97% 17.63% 20.24% 22.82% 25.38%
Turnover 0.04 0.07 0.12 0.20 0.32
Realised P&L -1.24 -1.66 -2.71 -3.54 -4.26
Unrealised P&L 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fees paid 2.10 3.27 5.31 8.39 11.88
Fee drag 1.72% 2.68% 4.35% 6.88% 9.74%
Final equity 120.76 120.34 119.29 118.46 117.74

Every number on this page is read from the run record that produced it — the audit pipeline writes the page and the record together, so the two cannot drift apart.

With the break-even guard WARN · 1 warn

Exits: no exit below average entry plus fees, stops included

The metric set the portfolio dashboard reports, computed per cell so a backtested configuration and a running one read on the same axes. Portfolio-level measures (concentration, pairwise correlation, beta against a benchmark) are omitted: one strategy on one pair has no cross-sectional structure to measure, and printing a null would imply the number exists.

1m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 0.18% 0.77% 1.23% 2.09% 1.05%
CAGR 2.23% 9.76% 16.07% 28.61% 13.51%
Buy and hold 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88%
Edge vs B&H -21.70% -21.11% -20.65% -19.79% -20.83%
Volatility (ann.) 10.84% 15.15% 27.70% 30.71% 26.99%
Sharpe 0.26 0.69 0.68 0.97 0.60
Sortino 0.25 0.67 0.65 0.94 0.58
Calmar 1.22 3.71 3.35 5.41 2.74
Omega 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
Max drawdown 1.83% 2.63% 4.79% 5.29% 4.94%
Ulcer index 0.0069 0.0099 0.0176 0.0200 0.0209
Drawdown episodes 295 291 322 339 266
Longest underwater (days) 6.5 6.5 6.6 6.6 8.2
Recovery factor 0.10 0.29 0.26 0.39 0.21
VaR 95% -0.755% -1.050% -1.975% -2.105% -1.682%
VaR 99% -1.172% -1.735% -3.122% -3.450% -2.847%
CVaR 95% -0.964% -1.393% -2.548% -2.777% -2.265%
Skew 0.49 0.44 0.50 0.46 0.39
Excess kurtosis 2.13 2.14 2.12 1.78 1.19
Best day 1.52% 2.21% 4.16% 4.57% 3.51%
Worst day -1.17% -1.74% -3.12% -3.45% -2.85%
Positive days 15 15 15 15 15
Negative days 15 15 15 15 15
Round trips 117 119 131 123 82
Winning / losing trades 117 / 0 119 / 0 131 / 0 123 / 0 82 / 0
Trades per day 3.90 3.97 4.37 4.10 2.73
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 0.0144 0.0251 0.0400 0.0547 0.0772
Average win 0.0144 0.0251 0.0400 0.0547 0.0772
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 0.0144 0.0251 0.0400 0.0547 0.0772
Max win streak 117 119 131 123 82
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 87.61% 88.39% 87.86% 89.40% 92.97%
Turnover 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.05
Realised P&L 1.68 2.99 5.24 6.73 6.33
Unrealised P&L -1.46 -2.05 -3.73 -4.18 -5.06
Fees paid 2.10 2.94 4.96 6.36 4.95
Fee drag 1.72% 2.41% 4.07% 5.21% 4.06%
Final equity 122.22 122.94 123.50 124.55 123.28

3m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 0.17% 0.58% 3.32% 1.44% 0.26%
CAGR 2.11% 7.33% 48.82% 19.05% 3.17%
Buy and hold 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86%
Edge vs B&H -21.69% -21.28% -18.54% -20.42% -21.60%
Volatility (ann.) 9.00% 13.43% 23.41% 27.53% 25.68%
Sharpe 0.28 0.59 1.82 0.77 0.25
Sortino 0.28 0.59 1.83 0.77 0.24
Calmar 1.18 2.94 10.72 3.83 0.67
Omega 1.00 1.01 1.02 1.01 1.00
Max drawdown 1.79% 2.50% 4.56% 4.97% 4.75%
Ulcer index 0.0060 0.0087 0.0138 0.0174 0.0191
Drawdown episodes 228 208 274 200 142
Longest underwater (days) 6.6 6.6 6.5 6.6 8.2
Recovery factor 0.10 0.23 0.73 0.29 0.05
VaR 95% -0.744% -1.039% -1.965% -2.096% -1.670%
VaR 99% -1.153% -1.605% -2.890% -3.198% -2.670%
CVaR 95% -0.949% -1.322% -2.428% -2.647% -2.170%
Skew 0.32 0.32 0.39 0.42 0.43
Excess kurtosis 3.66 2.17 3.26 2.28 0.66
Best day 1.40% 1.97% 3.79% 4.14% 3.19%
Worst day -1.15% -1.61% -2.89% -3.20% -2.67%
Positive days 19 18 19 18 14
Negative days 10 11 10 11 15
Round trips 76 72 91 80 46
Winning / losing trades 76 / 0 72 / 0 91 / 0 80 / 0 46 / 0
Trades per day 2.53 2.40 3.03 2.67 1.53
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 0.0198 0.0353 0.0563 0.0687 0.1167
Average win 0.0198 0.0353 0.0563 0.0687 0.1167
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 0.0198 0.0353 0.0563 0.0687 0.1167
Max win streak 76 72 91 80 46
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 69.75% 75.86% 72.85% 78.04% 87.74%
Turnover 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.05 0.04
Realised P&L 1.51 2.55 5.12 5.50 5.37
Unrealised P&L -1.30 -1.83 -1.07 -3.74 -5.06
Fees paid 1.33 1.77 3.55 4.02 2.79
Fee drag 1.09% 1.45% 2.91% 3.29% 2.29%
Final equity 122.21 122.71 126.05 123.76 122.31

5m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 1.59% 2.48% 4.57% 6.47% 6.18%
CAGR 21.17% 34.71% 72.25% 114.37% 107.32%
Buy and hold 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83%
Edge vs B&H -20.24% -19.35% -17.26% -15.36% -15.65%
Volatility (ann.) 7.66% 10.89% 18.32% 24.29% 22.28%
Sharpe 2.55 2.79 3.06 3.26 3.38
Sortino 2.65 2.90 3.17 3.40 3.45
Calmar 12.88 15.18 17.49 25.29 29.11
Omega 1.03 1.04 1.04 1.04 1.04
Max drawdown 1.64% 2.29% 4.13% 4.52% 3.69%
Ulcer index 0.0048 0.0067 0.0113 0.0134 0.0130
Drawdown episodes 239 228 261 252 203
Longest underwater (days) 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5
Recovery factor 0.97 1.08 1.11 1.43 1.68
VaR 95% -0.726% -1.013% -1.912% -2.025% -1.587%
VaR 99% -1.029% -1.431% -2.531% -2.831% -2.356%
CVaR 95% -0.878% -1.222% -2.221% -2.428% -1.972%
Skew 0.29 0.26 0.47 0.22 0.10
Excess kurtosis 3.63 3.54 6.14 2.78 1.15
Best day 1.33% 1.86% 3.54% 3.80% 3.07%
Worst day -1.03% -1.43% -2.53% -2.83% -2.36%
Positive days 24 24 24 23 20
Negative days 6 6 6 7 10
Round trips 69 71 89 73 66
Winning / losing trades 69 / 0 71 / 0 89 / 0 73 / 0 66 / 0
Trades per day 2.30 2.37 2.97 2.43 2.20
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 0.0281 0.0426 0.0627 0.1081 0.1633
Average win 0.0281 0.0426 0.0627 0.1081 0.1633
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 0.0281 0.0426 0.0627 0.1081 0.1633
Max win streak 69 71 89 73 66
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 55.50% 56.17% 51.87% 64.62% 74.18%
Turnover 0.02 0.02 0.05 0.06 0.09
Realised P&L 1.94 3.02 5.58 7.89 10.78
Unrealised P&L -0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.00 -3.24
Fees paid 1.20 1.76 3.33 3.84 3.99
Fee drag 0.99% 1.44% 2.73% 3.15% 3.27%
Final equity 123.94 125.02 127.58 129.89 129.53

Every number on this page is read from the run record that produced it — the audit pipeline writes the page and the record together, so the two cannot drift apart.

What the guard is, and what a better number under it means. The break-even guard refuses any exit below average entry plus fees. It cannot improve a strategy's judgement — it can only stop it selling at a loss, which means holding the position instead. Across the pack that turns a strategy that churned into one that buys and waits: trade counts collapse and time in market rises towards 100%. In a window where the asset itself rose, that reads as a much better return while being strictly less of a strategy.

So read the return next to round trips, time in market and edge vs buy and hold. The last of those is the one that matters: not one strategy in this matrix beat simply holding the asset, in either run.

Ignore the win rate and the profit factor under the guard. Both count closed trades only, and the guard closes nothing at a loss — in all 101 guarded runs the number of losing closed trades is exactly zero. So the win rate goes to 100% and the profit factor becomes undefined for arithmetic reasons, while the losses sit in the position that is still open. The unrealised row is where they went.