← DualMomentum_Absolute

DualMomentum_Absolute — metrics

Unguarded: PASSGuarded: PASSDirectionalgunbot-quant

BTCUSDT · 2026-08-13 01:50 → 2026-09-12 01:50 UTC (30 days) · 0.03% fee + 2 bps slippage · 1,000 quote, one figure for every cell

The same document for both runs of the same measurement — first as the strategy ships, then with the break-even guard. Everything else about the two runs is identical.

As it ships PASS

Exits: the strategy's own exits, stops included

The metric set the portfolio dashboard reports, computed per cell so a backtested configuration and a running one read on the same axes. Portfolio-level measures (concentration, pairwise correlation, beta against a benchmark) are omitted: one strategy on one pair has no cross-sectional structure to measure, and printing a null would imply the number exists.

1m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return -21.76% -32.53% -37.39% -31.84% -30.11%
CAGR -94.95% -99.17% -99.66% -99.06% -98.72%
Buy and hold 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88%
Edge vs B&H -43.64% -54.41% -59.27% -53.73% -51.99%
Volatility (ann.) 4.01% 8.09% 23.30% 27.32% 29.51%
Sharpe -74.50 -59.11 -24.33 -16.94 -14.62
Sortino -64.96 -52.09 -22.85 -15.84 -13.94
Calmar -4.36 -3.05 -2.60 -2.69 -2.73
Omega 0.56 0.60 0.82 0.89 0.90
Max drawdown 21.76% 32.53% 38.39% 36.82% 36.15%
Ulcer index 0.1336 0.2028 0.2122 0.2119 0.2099
Drawdown episodes 1 1 4 37 44
Longest underwater (days) 30.0 30.0 21.7 21.7 21.7
Recovery factor -1.00 -1.00 -0.97 -0.86 -0.83
VaR 95% -1.350% -2.255% -3.698% -4.254% -4.242%
VaR 99% -1.633% -2.488% -3.767% -4.546% -4.294%
CVaR 95% -1.491% -2.371% -3.732% -4.400% -4.268%
Skew -0.08 0.12 2.07 1.59 1.73
Excess kurtosis -0.82 -0.58 5.86 3.26 3.64
Best day -0.20% 0.14% 6.58% 7.07% 7.80%
Worst day -1.63% -2.49% -3.77% -4.55% -4.29%
Positive days 0 1 5 5 5
Negative days 30 29 25 25 25
Round trips 2,693 2,249 1,343 708 631
Winning / losing trades 184 / 2,509 132 / 2,117 36 / 1,307 34 / 674 34 / 597
Trades per day 89.77 74.97 44.77 23.60 21.03
Win rate 6.83% 5.87% 2.68% 4.80% 5.39%
Profit factor 0.17 0.18 0.32 0.44 0.47
Payoff ratio 2.32 2.87 11.60 8.64 8.28
Expectancy -0.0808 -0.1446 -0.2783 -0.4497 -0.4772
Average win 0.2428 0.5362 4.8782 7.2341 7.8938
Average loss 0.1045 0.1871 0.4204 0.8373 0.9539
Average trade -0.0808 -0.1446 -0.2783 -0.4497 -0.4772
Max win streak 3 5 2 1 1
Max loss streak 200 236 200 112 92
Time in market 40.52% 40.98% 41.38% 41.57% 41.59%
Turnover 0.31 0.47 0.73 0.81 0.84
Realised P&L -217.58 -325.29 -373.80 -318.40 -301.09
Unrealised P&L -0.00 -0.01 -0.09 -0.04 0.03
Fees paid 149.49 223.81 296.03 259.75 252.98
Fee drag 14.95% 22.38% 29.60% 25.97% 25.30%
Final equity 782.41 674.70 626.11 681.56 698.94

3m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return -5.52% 0.46% -5.23% 2.52% 5.21%
CAGR -49.87% 5.71% -47.96% 35.34% 85.54%
Buy and hold 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86%
Edge vs B&H -27.38% -21.40% -27.09% -19.34% -16.65%
Volatility (ann.) 4.02% 14.69% 23.98% 27.97% 30.15%
Sharpe -17.17 0.45 -2.60 1.22 2.20
Sortino -16.65 0.43 -2.65 1.19 2.25
Calmar -9.03 0.73 -3.53 3.09 8.33
Omega 0.80 1.01 0.97 1.01 1.03
Max drawdown 5.52% 7.83% 13.58% 11.45% 10.27%
Ulcer index 0.0312 0.0449 0.0774 0.0564 0.0505
Drawdown episodes 3 43 35 47 47
Longest underwater (days) 29.8 21.7 21.7 21.7 21.7
Recovery factor -1.00 0.06 -0.38 0.22 0.51
VaR 95% -0.585% -0.974% -1.770% -2.243% -2.315%
VaR 99% -0.610% -0.988% -2.285% -2.403% -2.428%
CVaR 95% -0.597% -0.981% -2.028% -2.323% -2.371%
Skew 1.87 2.47 2.09 1.87 1.86
Excess kurtosis 5.65 5.36 3.76 3.06 2.95
Best day 0.97% 5.01% 6.99% 7.56% 8.15%
Worst day -0.61% -0.99% -2.29% -2.40% -2.43%
Positive days 2 4 5 7 7
Negative days 27 24 24 21 22
Round trips 846 585 447 204 180
Winning / losing trades 124 / 722 49 / 536 27 / 420 11 / 193 11 / 169
Trades per day 28.20 19.50 14.90 6.80 6.00
Win rate 14.66% 8.38% 6.04% 5.39% 6.11%
Profit factor 0.49 1.03 0.79 1.11 1.23
Payoff ratio 2.85 11.29 12.30 19.44 18.82
Expectancy -0.0652 0.0078 -0.1169 0.1234 0.2895
Average win 0.4254 3.0103 7.3238 23.5232 25.7864
Average loss 0.1495 0.2667 0.5953 1.2102 1.3700
Average trade -0.0652 0.0078 -0.1169 0.1234 0.2895
Max win streak 4 3 2 2 2
Max loss streak 88 78 77 53 46
Time in market 43.55% 43.95% 44.22% 44.36% 44.37%
Turnover 0.16 0.29 0.45 0.49 0.52
Realised P&L -55.18 4.57 -52.27 25.18 52.11
Unrealised P&L -0.00 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00
Fees paid 50.87 68.95 117.25 90.23 86.87
Fee drag 5.09% 6.89% 11.73% 9.02% 8.69%
Final equity 944.82 1004.57 947.73 1025.18 1052.11

5m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return -1.18% 4.81% 6.38% 7.14% 9.16%
CAGR -13.49% 77.02% 112.23% 131.46% 190.57%
Buy and hold 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83%
Edge vs B&H -23.01% -17.02% -15.45% -14.69% -12.67%
Volatility (ann.) 4.35% 15.95% 24.90% 28.80% 31.40%
Sharpe -3.31 3.66 3.15 3.06 3.55
Sortino -3.76 3.71 3.19 3.08 3.70
Calmar -4.64 14.61 12.24 13.31 20.88
Omega 0.94 1.08 1.06 1.05 1.06
Max drawdown 2.91% 5.27% 9.17% 9.87% 9.13%
Ulcer index 0.0164 0.0334 0.0557 0.0522 0.0468
Drawdown episodes 18 33 33 33 32
Longest underwater (days) 21.7 21.7 21.7 21.7 21.7
Recovery factor -0.41 0.91 0.70 0.72 1.00
VaR 95% -0.402% -0.864% -1.242% -1.748% -2.070%
VaR 99% -0.411% -0.880% -1.350% -1.990% -2.140%
CVaR 95% -0.407% -0.872% -1.296% -1.869% -2.105%
Skew 2.82 2.38 2.28 1.94 1.86
Excess kurtosis 8.89 5.00 4.40 3.32 3.03
Best day 1.51% 4.97% 6.98% 7.53% 8.12%
Worst day -0.41% -0.88% -1.35% -1.99% -2.14%
Positive days 7 8 10 12 12
Negative days 21 21 19 17 18
Round trips 436 308 210 115 98
Winning / losing trades 88 / 348 32 / 276 21 / 189 6 / 109 6 / 92
Trades per day 14.53 10.27 7.00 3.83 3.27
Win rate 20.18% 10.39% 10.00% 5.22% 6.12%
Profit factor 0.81 1.54 1.43 1.41 1.52
Payoff ratio 3.21 13.28 12.89 25.54 23.28
Expectancy -0.0272 0.1560 0.3038 0.6210 0.9350
Average win 0.5847 4.2824 10.0678 41.2212 44.7564
Average loss 0.1819 0.3224 0.7811 1.6139 1.9229
Average trade -0.0272 0.1560 0.3038 0.6210 0.9350
Max win streak 5 2 2 1 1
Max loss streak 30 37 44 28 25
Time in market 40.67% 40.98% 41.09% 41.18% 41.19%
Turnover 0.11 0.23 0.36 0.42 0.45
Realised P&L -11.84 48.06 63.80 71.41 91.63
Unrealised P&L 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.00 0.00
Fees paid 26.81 35.89 55.67 51.96 48.51
Fee drag 2.68% 3.59% 5.57% 5.20% 4.85%
Final equity 988.16 1048.06 1063.80 1071.41 1091.63

Every number on this page is read from the run record that produced it — the audit pipeline writes the page and the record together, so the two cannot drift apart.

With the break-even guard PASS

Exits: no exit below average entry plus fees, stops included

The metric set the portfolio dashboard reports, computed per cell so a backtested configuration and a running one read on the same axes. Portfolio-level measures (concentration, pairwise correlation, beta against a benchmark) are omitted: one strategy on one pair has no cross-sectional structure to measure, and printing a null would imply the number exists.

1m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 1.60% 3.13% 10.98% 14.32% 15.57%
CAGR 21.32% 45.48% 255.22% 409.33% 481.78%
Buy and hold 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88%
Edge vs B&H -20.28% -18.75% -10.90% -7.56% -6.31%
Volatility (ann.) 4.13% 8.87% 28.95% 35.89% 38.92%
Sharpe 4.70 4.27 4.52 4.72 4.72
Sortino 4.93 4.37 4.50 4.69 4.70
Calmar 34.92 23.67 40.69 62.19 67.68
Omega 1.02 1.02 1.02 1.02 1.02
Max drawdown 0.61% 1.92% 6.27% 6.58% 7.12%
Ulcer index 0.0030 0.0098 0.0263 0.0321 0.0347
Drawdown episodes 57 52 83 94 94
Longest underwater (days) 9.7 21.7 21.7 8.2 8.2
Recovery factor 2.62 1.63 1.75 2.18 2.19
VaR 95% -0.175% -0.366% -1.274% -1.990% -2.164%
VaR 99% -0.302% -0.517% -1.403% -3.354% -3.638%
CVaR 95% -0.238% -0.442% -1.338% -2.672% -2.901%
Skew 1.80 1.69 2.35 1.52 1.51
Excess kurtosis 4.10 3.24 5.71 2.75 2.71
Best day 0.89% 1.63% 6.51% 7.51% 8.12%
Worst day -0.30% -0.52% -1.40% -3.35% -3.64%
Positive days 16 16 17 17 17
Negative days 14 14 13 13 13
Round trips 42 37 31 32 32
Winning / losing trades 42 / 0 37 / 0 31 / 0 32 / 0 32 / 0
Trades per day 1.40 1.23 1.03 1.07 1.07
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 0.4959 1.0730 5.2117 6.2164 6.7798
Average win 0.4959 1.0730 5.2117 6.2164 6.7798
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 0.4959 1.0730 5.2117 6.2164 6.7798
Max win streak 42 37 31 32 32
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 99.95% 99.97% 98.23% 97.34% 97.34%
Turnover 0.02 0.04 0.16 0.20 0.22
Realised P&L 20.83 39.70 161.56 198.93 216.95
Unrealised P&L -4.82 -8.41 -51.76 -55.76 -61.22
Fees paid 4.63 9.17 15.99 19.53 21.31
Fee drag 0.46% 0.92% 1.60% 1.95% 2.13%
Final equity 1016.01 1031.29 1109.81 1143.17 1155.73

3m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 1.88% 10.81% 15.04% 17.87% 19.68%
CAGR 25.49% 248.64% 449.92% 639.58% 790.20%
Buy and hold 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86%
Edge vs B&H -19.98% -11.05% -6.82% -3.99% -2.18%
Volatility (ann.) 4.81% 14.53% 26.92% 31.79% 34.25%
Sharpe 4.75 8.67 6.47 6.45 6.55
Sortino 4.89 9.04 6.51 6.48 6.58
Calmar 29.17 101.86 77.51 97.41 111.10
Omega 1.04 1.11 1.06 1.06 1.06
Max drawdown 0.87% 2.44% 5.80% 6.57% 7.11%
Ulcer index 0.0043 0.0141 0.0240 0.0270 0.0289
Drawdown episodes 37 57 62 71 72
Longest underwater (days) 21.7 21.7 18.0 8.2 8.2
Recovery factor 2.16 4.43 2.59 2.72 2.77
VaR 95% -0.259% -0.485% -1.283% -2.027% -2.199%
VaR 99% -0.424% -0.669% -1.436% -2.211% -2.275%
CVaR 95% -0.341% -0.577% -1.360% -2.119% -2.237%
Skew 1.97 2.66 2.25 1.80 1.82
Excess kurtosis 4.91 6.24 4.54 2.95 3.03
Best day 1.26% 5.01% 7.01% 7.56% 8.20%
Worst day -0.42% -0.67% -1.44% -2.21% -2.27%
Positive days 15 15 14 15 15
Negative days 14 14 15 14 14
Round trips 27 15 12 11 10
Winning / losing trades 27 / 0 15 / 0 12 / 0 11 / 0 10 / 0
Trades per day 0.90 0.50 0.40 0.37 0.33
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 0.9471 7.7788 16.1906 21.1176 25.6077
Average win 0.9471 7.7788 16.1906 21.1176 25.6077
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 0.9471 7.7788 16.1906 21.1176 25.6077
Max win streak 27 15 12 11 10
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 99.52% 95.31% 90.28% 89.49% 89.75%
Turnover 0.03 0.12 0.19 0.23 0.26
Realised P&L 25.57 116.68 194.29 232.29 256.08
Unrealised P&L -6.73 -8.59 -43.91 -53.55 -59.24
Fees paid 2.84 3.81 6.88 6.82 7.05
Fee drag 0.28% 0.38% 0.69% 0.68% 0.71%
Final equity 1018.84 1108.09 1150.38 1178.74 1196.84

5m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 2.60% 10.63% 13.59% 17.60% 18.51%
CAGR 36.61% 241.77% 371.41% 618.49% 689.56%
Buy and hold 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83%
Edge vs B&H -19.23% -11.20% -8.24% -4.23% -3.32%
Volatility (ann.) 4.73% 15.31% 31.03% 34.28% 37.76%
Sharpe 6.62 8.10 5.15 5.92 5.66
Sortino 8.05 8.84 5.32 6.16 5.87
Calmar 57.36 87.67 60.75 95.78 98.89
Omega 1.09 1.13 1.06 1.07 1.06
Max drawdown 0.64% 2.76% 6.11% 6.46% 6.97%
Ulcer index 0.0034 0.0165 0.0306 0.0290 0.0333
Drawdown episodes 27 42 43 51 46
Longest underwater (days) 21.7 21.7 21.7 9.7 9.8
Recovery factor 4.07 3.85 2.22 2.72 2.65
VaR 95% -0.168% -0.761% -1.754% -1.911% -2.075%
VaR 99% -0.289% -0.846% -2.952% -3.420% -3.709%
CVaR 95% -0.228% -0.804% -2.353% -2.665% -2.892%
Skew 3.01 2.60 1.76 1.53 1.50
Excess kurtosis 9.65 6.10 3.02 2.22 2.11
Best day 1.60% 4.99% 6.98% 7.53% 8.16%
Worst day -0.29% -0.85% -2.95% -3.42% -3.71%
Positive days 16 16 16 16 16
Negative days 14 14 14 14 14
Round trips 26 12 8 8 7
Winning / losing trades 26 / 0 12 / 0 8 / 0 8 / 0 7 / 0
Trades per day 0.87 0.40 0.27 0.27 0.23
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 1.1720 9.5531 22.5903 26.6933 32.3007
Average win 1.1720 9.5531 22.5903 26.6933 32.3007
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 1.1720 9.5531 22.5903 26.6933 32.3007
Max win streak 26 12 8 8 7
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 99.51% 95.63% 95.63% 85.65% 89.73%
Turnover 0.03 0.11 0.18 0.21 0.23
Realised P&L 30.47 114.64 180.72 213.55 226.10
Unrealised P&L -4.50 -8.35 -44.80 -37.59 -41.00
Fees paid 2.61 2.71 4.04 4.88 5.28
Fee drag 0.26% 0.27% 0.40% 0.49% 0.53%
Final equity 1025.97 1106.29 1135.92 1175.96 1185.11

Every number on this page is read from the run record that produced it — the audit pipeline writes the page and the record together, so the two cannot drift apart.

What the guard is, and what a better number under it means. The break-even guard refuses any exit below average entry plus fees. It cannot improve a strategy's judgement — it can only stop it selling at a loss, which means holding the position instead. Across the pack that turns a strategy that churned into one that buys and waits: trade counts collapse and time in market rises towards 100%. In a window where the asset itself rose, that reads as a much better return while being strictly less of a strategy.

So read the return next to round trips, time in market and edge vs buy and hold. The last of those is the one that matters: not one strategy in this matrix beat simply holding the asset, in either run.

Ignore the win rate and the profit factor under the guard. Both count closed trades only, and the guard closes nothing at a loss — in all 101 guarded runs the number of losing closed trades is exactly zero. So the win rate goes to 100% and the profit factor becomes undefined for arithmetic reasons, while the losses sit in the position that is still open. The unrealised row is where they went.