← EMABounce_MM

EMABounce_MM — metrics

Unguarded: PASSGuarded: WARN · 1 warnMM-DCAgunbot-quant

BTCUSDT · 2026-08-13 01:50 → 2026-09-12 01:50 UTC (30 days) · 0.03% fee + 2 bps slippage · 123 quote, one figure for every cell

The same document for both runs of the same measurement — first as the strategy ships, then with the break-even guard. Everything else about the two runs is identical.

As it ships PASS

Exits: the strategy's own exits, stops included

The metric set the portfolio dashboard reports, computed per cell so a backtested configuration and a running one read on the same axes. Portfolio-level measures (concentration, pairwise correlation, beta against a benchmark) are omitted: one strategy on one pair has no cross-sectional structure to measure, and printing a null would imply the number exists.

1m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return -31.01% -48.77% -68.79% -71.16% -59.36%
CAGR -98.91% -99.97% -100.00% -100.00% -100.00%
Buy and hold 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88%
Edge vs B&H -52.89% -70.66% -90.68% -93.04% -81.24%
Volatility (ann.) 7.84% 13.43% 20.69% 22.50% 24.60%
Sharpe -57.58 -60.53 -68.37 -67.11 -44.40
Sortino -51.38 -54.41 -60.94 -59.91 -40.15
Calmar -3.19 -2.05 -1.45 -1.41 -1.68
Omega 0.64 0.64 0.64 0.67 0.74
Max drawdown 31.01% 48.77% 68.79% 71.16% 59.40%
Ulcer index 0.1733 0.2743 0.3980 0.4691 0.4485
Drawdown episodes 1 1 1 1 1
Longest underwater (days) 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0
Recovery factor -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00
VaR 95% -2.018% -3.482% -6.245% -7.127% -6.339%
VaR 99% -2.470% -3.857% -6.271% -8.022% -7.677%
CVaR 95% -2.244% -3.670% -6.258% -7.574% -7.008%
Skew -0.13 -0.48 -0.35 0.29 0.01
Excess kurtosis 1.59 -0.87 -1.38 -0.33 -1.26
Best day 0.03% -1.03% -1.81% 0.00% 0.00%
Worst day -2.47% -3.86% -6.27% -8.02% -7.68%
Positive days 1 0 0 1 3
Negative days 29 30 30 29 27
Round trips 1,487 1,677 1,733 1,484 992
Winning / losing trades 237 / 1,250 263 / 1,414 260 / 1,473 223 / 1,261 219 / 773
Trades per day 49.57 55.90 57.77 49.47 33.07
Win rate 15.94% 15.68% 15.00% 15.03% 22.08%
Profit factor 0.09 0.09 0.08 0.10 0.16
Payoff ratio 0.50 0.49 0.48 0.59 0.55
Expectancy -0.0257 -0.0358 -0.0488 -0.0590 -0.0736
Average win 0.0167 0.0226 0.0300 0.0454 0.0621
Average loss 0.0337 0.0466 0.0627 0.0774 0.1120
Average trade -0.0257 -0.0358 -0.0488 -0.0590 -0.0736
Max win streak 12 9 10 6 6
Max loss streak 126 139 145 179 101
Time in market 39.10% 44.64% 49.21% 48.58% 40.05%
Turnover 0.37 0.58 0.81 0.88 0.81
Realised P&L -38.14 -59.99 -84.62 -87.52 -73.01
Unrealised P&L -0.00 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00 0.00
Fees paid 24.32 38.43 53.77 55.02 48.14
Fee drag 19.77% 31.24% 43.71% 44.73% 39.14%
Final equity 84.86 63.01 38.38 35.48 49.99

3m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return -6.94% -12.49% -18.87% -25.87% -29.40%
CAGR -58.31% -80.29% -92.15% -97.38% -98.55%
Buy and hold 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86%
Edge vs B&H -28.80% -34.35% -40.73% -47.73% -51.26%
Volatility (ann.) 6.59% 10.54% 18.01% 21.80% 26.34%
Sharpe -13.23 -15.36 -14.03 -16.59 -15.95
Sortino -12.59 -14.36 -13.31 -15.52 -15.03
Calmar -8.25 -6.36 -4.85 -3.76 -3.33
Omega 0.84 0.83 0.85 0.84 0.86
Max drawdown 7.07% 12.62% 19.00% 25.93% 29.58%
Ulcer index 0.0348 0.0653 0.0961 0.1418 0.1562
Drawdown episodes 6 1 1 1 1
Longest underwater (days) 29.8 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0
Recovery factor -0.98 -0.99 -0.99 -1.00 -0.99
VaR 95% -0.820% -1.297% -2.099% -2.293% -2.915%
VaR 99% -0.868% -1.536% -2.656% -2.926% -3.951%
CVaR 95% -0.844% -1.416% -2.378% -2.609% -3.433%
Skew -0.41 0.03 0.06 0.06 -0.05
Excess kurtosis 0.45 0.95 1.21 1.05 1.16
Best day 0.31% 0.72% 1.33% 0.83% 1.46%
Worst day -0.87% -1.54% -2.66% -2.93% -3.95%
Positive days 4 3 4 4 2
Negative days 25 26 25 25 27
Round trips 457 513 526 511 439
Winning / losing trades 189 / 268 191 / 322 207 / 319 195 / 316 171 / 268
Trades per day 15.23 17.10 17.53 17.03 14.63
Win rate 41.36% 37.23% 39.35% 38.16% 38.95%
Profit factor 0.35 0.32 0.35 0.33 0.37
Payoff ratio 0.50 0.55 0.54 0.54 0.59
Expectancy -0.0187 -0.0300 -0.0441 -0.0622 -0.0823
Average win 0.0248 0.0386 0.0605 0.0815 0.1259
Average loss 0.0493 0.0706 0.1120 0.1509 0.2152
Average trade -0.0187 -0.0300 -0.0441 -0.0622 -0.0823
Max win streak 7 8 12 13 6
Max loss streak 32 39 33 30 29
Time in market 35.10% 41.13% 47.76% 53.35% 60.93%
Turnover 0.15 0.24 0.39 0.52 0.64
Realised P&L -8.54 -15.37 -23.19 -31.79 -36.14
Unrealised P&L 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.02 -0.03
Fees paid 7.97 12.70 19.39 23.82 25.91
Fee drag 6.48% 10.33% 15.76% 19.37% 21.06%
Final equity 114.47 107.63 99.79 91.19 86.84

5m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return -2.18% -4.94% -8.33% -12.68% -13.64%
CAGR -23.55% -46.03% -65.27% -80.80% -83.20%
Buy and hold 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83%
Edge vs B&H -24.01% -26.77% -30.15% -34.51% -35.46%
Volatility (ann.) 5.89% 9.66% 17.49% 22.72% 24.32%
Sharpe -4.53 -6.33 -5.96 -7.15 -7.21
Sortino -4.41 -6.11 -5.85 -6.89 -6.83
Calmar -8.31 -9.03 -7.25 -6.08 -5.55
Omega 0.93 0.91 0.92 0.91 0.92
Max drawdown 2.83% 5.10% 9.01% 13.29% 14.99%
Ulcer index 0.0120 0.0234 0.0412 0.0603 0.0649
Drawdown episodes 62 9 13 16 18
Longest underwater (days) 15.0 29.8 17.8 18.4 17.8
Recovery factor -0.77 -0.97 -0.92 -0.95 -0.91
VaR 95% -0.498% -0.723% -1.188% -1.872% -2.123%
VaR 99% -0.519% -0.780% -2.046% -3.104% -2.930%
CVaR 95% -0.508% -0.751% -1.617% -2.488% -2.527%
Skew 0.85 0.18 -0.22 -0.23 0.31
Excess kurtosis 0.91 -0.48 0.85 0.42 -0.12
Best day 0.66% 0.44% 1.14% 1.44% 1.96%
Worst day -0.52% -0.78% -2.05% -3.10% -2.93%
Positive days 8 7 8 7 7
Negative days 22 23 22 23 23
Round trips 260 301 320 305 259
Winning / losing trades 139 / 121 152 / 149 170 / 150 175 / 130 140 / 119
Trades per day 8.67 10.03 10.67 10.17 8.63
Win rate 53.46% 50.50% 53.13% 57.38% 54.05%
Profit factor 0.67 0.55 0.54 0.55 0.58
Payoff ratio 0.58 0.54 0.48 0.41 0.50
Expectancy -0.0103 -0.0202 -0.0319 -0.0510 -0.0645
Average win 0.0395 0.0486 0.0719 0.1076 0.1670
Average loss 0.0676 0.0902 0.1496 0.2646 0.3369
Average trade -0.0103 -0.0202 -0.0319 -0.0510 -0.0645
Max win streak 19 10 9 14 12
Max loss streak 14 21 23 11 10
Time in market 31.98% 40.11% 46.74% 53.15% 61.36%
Turnover 0.11 0.17 0.28 0.43 0.52
Realised P&L -2.68 -6.07 -10.22 -15.56 -16.71
Unrealised P&L 0.00 -0.01 -0.02 -0.04 -0.06
Fees paid 4.78 7.80 12.63 15.75 15.57
Fee drag 3.88% 6.34% 10.27% 12.81% 12.66%
Final equity 120.32 116.92 112.76 107.40 106.23

Every number on this page is read from the run record that produced it — the audit pipeline writes the page and the record together, so the two cannot drift apart.

With the break-even guard WARN · 1 warn

Exits: no exit below average entry plus fees, stops included

The metric set the portfolio dashboard reports, computed per cell so a backtested configuration and a running one read on the same axes. Portfolio-level measures (concentration, pairwise correlation, beta against a benchmark) are omitted: one strategy on one pair has no cross-sectional structure to measure, and printing a null would imply the number exists.

1m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 0.41% 0.17% -0.33% 1.19% 1.16%
CAGR 5.08% 2.10% -3.95% 15.52% 15.04%
Buy and hold 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88%
Edge vs B&H -21.47% -21.71% -22.21% -20.69% -20.72%
Volatility (ann.) 11.52% 16.50% 30.35% 33.56% 28.25%
Sharpe 0.49 0.21 0.02 0.60 0.64
Sortino 0.47 0.20 0.02 0.57 0.61
Calmar 2.35 0.70 -0.71 2.60 2.98
Omega 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
Max drawdown 2.16% 3.01% 5.57% 5.97% 5.04%
Ulcer index 0.0089 0.0124 0.0225 0.0247 0.0215
Drawdown episodes 350 363 331 278 181
Longest underwater (days) 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2
Recovery factor 0.19 0.06 -0.06 0.20 0.23
VaR 95% -0.746% -1.045% -1.964% -2.079% -1.844%
VaR 99% -1.244% -1.736% -3.137% -3.409% -2.835%
CVaR 95% -0.995% -1.390% -2.551% -2.744% -2.340%
Skew 0.18 0.28 0.19 0.31 0.27
Excess kurtosis 0.34 0.77 0.77 0.75 0.34
Best day 1.38% 2.07% 3.65% 4.08% 3.24%
Worst day -1.24% -1.74% -3.14% -3.41% -2.84%
Positive days 15 15 15 15 15
Negative days 15 15 15 15 15
Round trips 134 136 145 119 85
Winning / losing trades 134 / 0 136 / 0 145 / 0 119 / 0 85 / 0
Trades per day 4.47 4.53 4.83 3.97 2.83
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 0.0202 0.0242 0.0375 0.0660 0.0800
Average win 0.0202 0.0242 0.0375 0.0660 0.0800
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 0.0202 0.0242 0.0375 0.0660 0.0800
Max win streak 134 136 145 119 85
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 92.67% 94.04% 94.14% 95.64% 97.03%
Turnover 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.06 0.06
Realised P&L 2.70 3.30 5.43 7.85 6.80
Unrealised P&L -2.21 -3.09 -5.83 -6.40 -5.38
Fees paid 2.45 3.48 5.95 6.48 5.13
Fee drag 2.01% 2.85% 4.87% 5.31% 4.21%
Final equity 122.50 122.21 121.60 123.46 123.41

3m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 1.28% 0.45% 3.78% 1.85% 2.98%
CAGR 16.73% 5.63% 57.10% 24.95% 42.88%
Buy and hold 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86%
Edge vs B&H -20.58% -21.41% -18.08% -20.01% -18.88%
Volatility (ann.) 10.44% 15.51% 27.37% 31.78% 26.76%
Sharpe 1.53 0.43 1.79 0.86 1.47
Sortino 1.53 0.42 1.78 0.84 1.43
Calmar 9.26 1.91 12.23 4.26 8.87
Omega 1.01 1.00 1.01 1.01 1.01
Max drawdown 1.81% 2.94% 4.67% 5.85% 4.84%
Ulcer index 0.0064 0.0120 0.0169 0.0243 0.0208
Drawdown episodes 254 223 281 198 166
Longest underwater (days) 6.6 8.0 6.6 8.2 8.2
Recovery factor 0.71 0.15 0.81 0.32 0.62
VaR 95% -0.736% -1.026% -1.898% -2.028% -1.626%
VaR 99% -1.165% -1.659% -2.964% -3.249% -2.618%
CVaR 95% -0.950% -1.342% -2.431% -2.639% -2.122%
Skew 0.28 0.31 0.44 0.24 0.41
Excess kurtosis 1.50 0.56 1.33 0.44 0.57
Best day 1.47% 1.99% 3.95% 3.76% 3.46%
Worst day -1.16% -1.66% -2.96% -3.25% -2.62%
Positive days 16 15 15 15 15
Negative days 13 14 14 14 14
Round trips 88 74 112 81 67
Winning / losing trades 88 / 0 74 / 0 112 / 0 81 / 0 67 / 0
Trades per day 2.93 2.47 3.73 2.70 2.23
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 0.0325 0.0489 0.0747 0.1058 0.1318
Average win 0.0325 0.0489 0.0747 0.1058 0.1318
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 0.0325 0.0489 0.0747 0.1058 0.1318
Max win streak 88 74 112 81 67
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 84.07% 88.88% 87.20% 91.27% 93.40%
Turnover 0.02 0.03 0.07 0.07 0.07
Realised P&L 2.86 3.62 8.37 8.57 8.83
Unrealised P&L -1.30 -3.07 -3.75 -6.32 -5.20
Fees paid 1.76 2.06 4.70 4.38 4.05
Fee drag 1.44% 1.69% 3.86% 3.59% 3.32%
Final equity 123.56 122.55 126.61 124.25 125.63

5m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 2.67% 3.65% 7.63% 4.24% 2.28%
CAGR 37.84% 54.66% 144.75% 65.78% 31.51%
Buy and hold 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83%
Edge vs B&H -19.16% -18.18% -14.19% -17.59% -19.55%
Volatility (ann.) 9.78% 14.38% 24.77% 30.22% 26.31%
Sharpe 3.33 3.10 3.74 1.82 1.17
Sortino 3.45 3.19 3.89 1.84 1.16
Calmar 21.71 22.24 33.19 12.94 6.58
Omega 1.04 1.03 1.04 1.02 1.01
Max drawdown 1.74% 2.46% 4.36% 5.08% 4.79%
Ulcer index 0.0058 0.0083 0.0139 0.0186 0.0200
Drawdown episodes 234 220 269 201 132
Longest underwater (days) 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.7 8.2
Recovery factor 1.53 1.48 1.75 0.83 0.48
VaR 95% -0.715% -0.996% -1.843% -1.998% -1.591%
VaR 99% -1.138% -1.605% -2.804% -3.313% -2.683%
CVaR 95% -0.927% -1.301% -2.324% -2.656% -2.137%
Skew 0.15 0.16 0.04 0.32 0.20
Excess kurtosis 0.95 1.20 1.65 1.76 0.23
Best day 1.39% 1.97% 3.62% 4.34% 3.11%
Worst day -1.14% -1.61% -2.80% -3.31% -2.68%
Positive days 21 21 21 19 16
Negative days 9 9 9 11 14
Round trips 81 86 117 81 47
Winning / losing trades 81 / 0 86 / 0 117 / 0 81 / 0 47 / 0
Trades per day 2.70 2.87 3.90 2.70 1.57
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 0.0432 0.0557 0.0879 0.1099 0.1714
Average win 0.0432 0.0557 0.0879 0.1099 0.1714
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 0.0432 0.0557 0.0879 0.1099 0.1714
Max win streak 81 86 117 81 47
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 75.91% 80.53% 79.85% 86.65% 91.69%
Turnover 0.03 0.04 0.08 0.07 0.07
Realised P&L 3.50 4.79 10.29 8.90 8.06
Unrealised P&L -0.24 -0.34 -0.97 -3.72 -5.28
Fees paid 1.56 2.41 5.18 4.60 2.85
Fee drag 1.28% 1.97% 4.25% 3.77% 2.34%
Final equity 125.26 126.45 131.31 127.18 124.78

Every number on this page is read from the run record that produced it — the audit pipeline writes the page and the record together, so the two cannot drift apart.

What the guard is, and what a better number under it means. The break-even guard refuses any exit below average entry plus fees. It cannot improve a strategy's judgement — it can only stop it selling at a loss, which means holding the position instead. Across the pack that turns a strategy that churned into one that buys and waits: trade counts collapse and time in market rises towards 100%. In a window where the asset itself rose, that reads as a much better return while being strictly less of a strategy.

So read the return next to round trips, time in market and edge vs buy and hold. The last of those is the one that matters: not one strategy in this matrix beat simply holding the asset, in either run.

Ignore the win rate and the profit factor under the guard. Both count closed trades only, and the guard closes nothing at a loss — in all 101 guarded runs the number of losing closed trades is exactly zero. So the win rate goes to 100% and the profit factor becomes undefined for arithmetic reasons, while the losses sit in the position that is still open. The unrealised row is where they went.