← EMACross

EMACross — metrics

Unguarded: PASSGuarded: FAIL · 2 failDirectionalgunbot-quant

BTCUSDT · 2026-08-13 01:50 → 2026-09-12 01:50 UTC (30 days) · 0.03% fee + 2 bps slippage · 1,000 quote, one figure for every cell

The same document for both runs of the same measurement — first as the strategy ships, then with the break-even guard. Everything else about the two runs is identical.

As it ships PASS

Exits: the strategy's own exits, stops included

The metric set the portfolio dashboard reports, computed per cell so a backtested configuration and a running one read on the same axes. Portfolio-level measures (concentration, pairwise correlation, beta against a benchmark) are omitted: one strategy on one pair has no cross-sectional structure to measure, and printing a null would imply the number exists.

1m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return -5.69% -11.16% -20.56% -22.27% -17.45%
CAGR -50.95% -76.30% -93.92% -95.34% -90.30%
Buy and hold 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88%
Edge vs B&H -27.57% -33.04% -42.44% -44.15% -39.33%
Volatility (ann.) 1.56% 3.77% 14.74% 16.74% 12.86%
Sharpe -45.75 -38.15 -18.93 -18.23 -18.08
Sortino -23.49 -18.72 -12.48 -15.59 -17.64
Calmar -8.82 -6.77 -4.57 -4.26 -4.75
Omega 0.56 0.63 0.83 0.88 0.89
Max drawdown 5.77% 11.28% 20.57% 22.39% 18.99%
Ulcer index 0.0339 0.0661 0.1169 0.1157 0.0971
Drawdown episodes 1 5 3 11 25
Longest underwater (days) 30.0 30.0 30.0 29.9 21.7
Recovery factor -0.98 -0.99 -1.00 -0.99 -0.92
VaR 95% -0.272% -0.534% -1.688% -1.981% -1.620%
VaR 99% -0.303% -0.556% -2.540% -2.100% -1.671%
CVaR 95% -0.287% -0.545% -2.114% -2.040% -1.646%
Skew 0.89 0.88 2.46 2.18 1.96
Excess kurtosis 0.77 0.35 6.66 4.31 3.78
Best day -0.01% -0.06% 3.76% 3.26% 2.36%
Worst day -0.30% -0.56% -2.54% -2.10% -1.67%
Positive days 0 0 3 3 4
Negative days 30 30 27 27 26
Round trips 596 596 596 596 596
Winning / losing trades 34 / 562 36 / 560 41 / 555 100 / 496 113 / 483
Trades per day 19.87 19.87 19.87 19.87 19.87
Win rate 5.70% 6.04% 6.88% 16.78% 18.96%
Profit factor 0.12 0.14 0.38 0.50 0.52
Payoff ratio 1.90 2.20 5.20 2.49 2.22
Expectancy -0.0954 -0.1873 -0.3450 -0.3737 -0.2928
Average win 0.2174 0.5118 3.1329 2.2405 1.6642
Average loss 0.1143 0.2322 0.6019 0.9007 0.7506
Average trade -0.0954 -0.1873 -0.3450 -0.3737 -0.2928
Max win streak 2 2 3 5 5
Max loss streak 88 112 52 39 33
Time in market 11.22% 15.18% 24.27% 42.64% 49.66%
Turnover 0.07 0.15 0.46 0.67 0.55
Realised P&L -56.86 -111.61 -205.63 -222.72 -174.50
Unrealised P&L 0.00 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00
Fees paid 37.53 73.44 162.02 183.26 141.43
Fee drag 3.75% 7.34% 16.20% 18.33% 14.14%
Final equity 943.14 888.39 794.37 777.28 825.50

3m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return -2.07% -4.04% -7.03% -7.37% -5.84%
CAGR -22.43% -39.46% -58.80% -60.59% -51.90%
Buy and hold 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86%
Edge vs B&H -23.93% -25.90% -28.89% -29.23% -27.70%
Volatility (ann.) 1.37% 3.46% 14.13% 16.08% 12.11%
Sharpe -18.48 -14.49 -6.21 -5.71 -5.99
Sortino -9.30 -8.17 -4.18 -5.11 -5.95
Calmar -10.64 -9.66 -6.68 -5.12 -5.58
Omega 0.71 0.78 0.91 0.94 0.94
Max drawdown 2.11% 4.09% 8.80% 11.84% 9.30%
Ulcer index 0.0114 0.0210 0.0469 0.0560 0.0433
Drawdown episodes 1 2 10 28 29
Longest underwater (days) 30.0 29.9 21.7 21.7 21.7
Recovery factor -0.98 -0.99 -0.80 -0.62 -0.63
VaR 95% -0.129% -0.269% -0.869% -1.247% -0.986%
VaR 99% -0.135% -0.276% -1.055% -1.325% -1.087%
CVaR 95% -0.132% -0.272% -0.962% -1.286% -1.037%
Skew 0.96 1.70 2.67 1.86 1.46
Excess kurtosis 0.89 3.37 6.45 4.12 2.49
Best day 0.05% 0.25% 3.42% 3.18% 2.18%
Worst day -0.14% -0.28% -1.05% -1.33% -1.09%
Positive days 2 2 4 5 7
Negative days 27 27 25 24 22
Round trips 213 212 213 212 212
Winning / losing trades 24 / 189 24 / 188 19 / 194 37 / 175 44 / 168
Trades per day 7.10 7.07 7.10 7.07 7.07
Win rate 11.27% 11.32% 8.92% 17.45% 20.75%
Profit factor 0.24 0.28 0.58 0.68 0.68
Payoff ratio 1.87 2.17 5.88 3.23 2.60
Expectancy -0.0970 -0.1909 -0.3300 -0.3491 -0.2768
Average win 0.2687 0.6472 5.0249 4.3272 2.8464
Average loss 0.1434 0.2979 0.8545 1.3378 1.0948
Average trade -0.0970 -0.1909 -0.3300 -0.3491 -0.2768
Max win streak 3 3 2 3 3
Max loss streak 38 29 32 27 14
Time in market 14.12% 19.77% 29.49% 45.18% 50.00%
Turnover 0.03 0.07 0.26 0.39 0.31
Realised P&L -20.66 -40.47 -70.29 -74.00 -58.68
Unrealised P&L -0.00 0.06 -0.00 0.33 0.30
Fees paid 13.24 26.41 63.96 70.90 53.61
Fee drag 1.32% 2.64% 6.40% 7.09% 5.36%
Final equity 979.34 959.60 929.71 926.33 941.62

5m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return -1.24% -0.81% -6.48% 1.15% 0.16%
CAGR -14.05% -9.39% -55.75% 14.95% 1.98%
Buy and hold 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83%
Edge vs B&H -23.07% -22.64% -28.31% -20.68% -21.67%
Volatility (ann.) 1.31% 5.84% 11.33% 17.68% 13.36%
Sharpe -11.59 -1.66 -7.14 0.88 0.21
Sortino -6.51 -1.10 -4.78 0.86 0.22
Calmar -11.22 -4.55 -8.13 1.67 0.28
Omega 0.76 0.95 0.86 1.01 1.00
Max drawdown 1.25% 2.06% 6.86% 8.93% 7.09%
Ulcer index 0.0067 0.0116 0.0428 0.0447 0.0357
Drawdown episodes 4 12 6 29 30
Longest underwater (days) 29.9 21.4 29.9 21.7 21.7
Recovery factor -0.99 -0.39 -0.94 0.13 0.02
VaR 95% -0.101% -0.221% -0.636% -0.975% -0.770%
VaR 99% -0.145% -0.266% -0.675% -1.154% -0.902%
CVaR 95% -0.123% -0.243% -0.656% -1.065% -0.836%
Skew 0.83 4.35 4.18 2.24 2.12
Excess kurtosis 1.66 19.14 18.12 4.56 4.14
Best day 0.10% 1.90% 3.06% 4.72% 3.33%
Worst day -0.14% -0.27% -0.68% -1.15% -0.90%
Positive days 3 5 2 9 9
Negative days 27 25 28 21 21
Round trips 121 121 121 121 121
Winning / losing trades 16 / 105 19 / 102 13 / 108 24 / 97 27 / 94
Trades per day 4.03 4.03 4.03 4.03 4.03
Win rate 13.22% 15.70% 10.74% 19.83% 22.31%
Profit factor 0.30 0.78 0.39 1.07 1.02
Payoff ratio 1.96 4.21 3.24 4.33 3.53
Expectancy -0.1017 -0.0659 -0.5343 0.0995 0.0158
Average win 0.3266 1.5177 3.1765 7.4130 4.7674
Average loss 0.1670 0.3608 0.9810 1.7101 1.3490
Average trade -0.1017 -0.0659 -0.5343 0.0995 0.0158
Max win streak 2 3 1 3 3
Max loss streak 16 22 22 22 16
Time in market 15.08% 20.53% 25.05% 48.08% 52.45%
Turnover 0.02 0.07 0.15 0.34 0.26
Realised P&L -12.31 -7.97 -64.65 12.03 1.91
Unrealised P&L -0.06 -0.10 -0.17 -0.52 -0.30
Fees paid 7.46 15.11 34.29 42.57 31.80
Fee drag 0.75% 1.51% 3.43% 4.26% 3.18%
Final equity 987.63 991.93 935.18 1011.52 1001.61

Every number on this page is read from the run record that produced it — the audit pipeline writes the page and the record together, so the two cannot drift apart.

With the break-even guard FAIL · 2 fail

Exits: no exit below average entry plus fees, stops included

The metric set the portfolio dashboard reports, computed per cell so a backtested configuration and a running one read on the same axes. Portfolio-level measures (concentration, pairwise correlation, beta against a benchmark) are omitted: one strategy on one pair has no cross-sectional structure to measure, and printing a null would imply the number exists.

1m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 0.35% 3.40% 14.15% 16.08% 17.89%
CAGR 4.29% 50.26% 400.18% 513.30% 641.07%
Buy and hold 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88%
Edge vs B&H -21.54% -18.48% -7.74% -5.81% -3.99%
Volatility (ann.) 3.34% 10.29% 22.95% 33.33% 36.00%
Sharpe 1.27 4.01 7.13 5.61 5.74
Sortino 1.19 4.29 7.33 5.64 5.79
Calmar 7.21 23.74 83.78 88.94 102.57
Omega 1.01 1.02 1.04 1.03 1.03
Max drawdown 0.59% 2.12% 4.78% 5.77% 6.25%
Ulcer index 0.0026 0.0079 0.0161 0.0262 0.0281
Drawdown episodes 46 42 74 91 93
Longest underwater (days) 9.8 9.6 21.7 9.7 9.7
Recovery factor 0.58 1.61 2.96 2.79 2.86
VaR 95% -0.177% -0.731% -0.697% -1.990% -2.164%
VaR 99% -0.231% -1.253% -1.065% -3.354% -3.638%
CVaR 95% -0.204% -0.992% -0.881% -2.672% -2.901%
Skew 0.37 2.65 2.72 1.58 1.59
Excess kurtosis -0.53 9.52 7.39 3.09 3.11
Best day 0.30% 3.34% 6.77% 7.86% 8.57%
Worst day -0.23% -1.25% -1.07% -3.35% -3.64%
Positive days 15 15 17 15 15
Negative days 15 15 13 15 15
Round trips 37 31 27 30 30
Winning / losing trades 37 / 0 31 / 0 27 / 0 30 / 0 30 / 0
Trades per day 1.23 1.03 0.90 1.00 1.00
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 0.2172 1.3599 5.8238 6.4433 7.0668
Average win 0.2172 1.3599 5.8238 6.4433 7.0668
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 0.2172 1.3599 5.8238 6.4433 7.0668
Max win streak 37 31 27 30 30
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 92.55% 94.74% 97.62% 97.54% 97.53%
Turnover 0.01 0.04 0.16 0.19 0.21
Realised P&L 8.04 42.16 157.24 193.30 212.00
Unrealised P&L -4.58 -8.12 -15.78 -32.54 -33.05
Fees paid 4.19 7.91 14.82 18.32 20.01
Fee drag 0.42% 0.79% 1.48% 1.83% 2.00%
Final equity 1003.46 1034.04 1141.46 1160.75 1178.95

3m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 0.47% 0.71% 9.93% 16.09% 17.89%
CAGR 5.84% 9.05% 216.37% 514.50% 640.88%
Buy and hold 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86%
Edge vs B&H -21.39% -21.15% -11.93% -5.77% -3.97%
Volatility (ann.) 3.51% 6.95% 23.80% 29.98% 32.22%
Sharpe 1.64 1.28 4.96 6.21 6.38
Sortino 1.56 1.24 5.07 6.42 6.62
Calmar 9.77 5.92 41.57 85.50 98.26
Omega 1.01 1.01 1.05 1.05 1.05
Max drawdown 0.60% 1.53% 5.21% 6.02% 6.52%
Ulcer index 0.0026 0.0064 0.0215 0.0259 0.0277
Drawdown episodes 20 24 41 50 50
Longest underwater (days) 8.5 9.8 18.0 9.7 9.7
Recovery factor 0.78 0.47 1.91 2.67 2.74
VaR 95% -0.262% -0.507% -1.584% -1.958% -2.129%
VaR 99% -0.327% -0.828% -2.552% -3.141% -3.407%
CVaR 95% -0.294% -0.668% -2.068% -2.549% -2.768%
Skew 0.40 0.56 1.42 1.19 1.21
Excess kurtosis -0.02 1.41 3.08 1.16 1.20
Best day 0.40% 1.07% 5.32% 5.98% 6.46%
Worst day -0.33% -0.83% -2.55% -3.14% -3.41%
Positive days 15 14 16 15 15
Negative days 14 15 13 14 14
Round trips 23 20 16 21 21
Winning / losing trades 23 / 0 20 / 0 16 / 0 21 / 0 21 / 0
Trades per day 0.77 0.67 0.53 0.70 0.70
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 0.3874 0.7223 7.0817 9.0922 9.9707
Average win 0.3874 0.7223 7.0817 9.0922 9.9707
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 0.3874 0.7223 7.0817 9.0922 9.9707
Max win streak 23 20 16 21 21
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 89.02% 92.37% 97.50% 97.39% 97.39%
Turnover 0.01 0.01 0.11 0.19 0.21
Realised P&L 8.91 14.45 113.31 190.94 209.38
Unrealised P&L -4.24 -7.30 -14.03 -30.01 -30.47
Fees paid 2.16 3.97 7.70 12.50 13.60
Fee drag 0.22% 0.40% 0.77% 1.25% 1.36%
Final equity 1004.67 1007.14 1099.28 1160.93 1178.91

5m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 0.30% 0.09% 7.06% 14.64% 16.00%
CAGR 3.73% 1.08% 129.32% 427.38% 508.40%
Buy and hold 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83%
Edge vs B&H -21.53% -21.74% -14.77% -7.18% -5.83%
Volatility (ann.) 2.80% 5.56% 22.38% 35.01% 38.06%
Sharpe 1.33 0.22 3.82 4.92 4.94
Sortino 1.23 0.20 3.78 5.09 5.10
Calmar 6.91 1.10 26.39 64.69 71.37
Omega 1.01 1.00 1.05 1.05 1.05
Max drawdown 0.54% 0.99% 4.90% 6.61% 7.12%
Ulcer index 0.0022 0.0046 0.0224 0.0307 0.0331
Drawdown episodes 27 21 28 47 47
Longest underwater (days) 8.5 8.5 13.5 8.2 8.2
Recovery factor 0.56 0.09 1.44 2.22 2.25
VaR 95% -0.170% -0.390% -1.059% -1.946% -2.076%
VaR 99% -0.227% -0.395% -1.246% -3.206% -3.477%
CVaR 95% -0.199% -0.392% -1.153% -2.576% -2.776%
Skew 0.30 0.36 2.58 1.46 1.46
Excess kurtosis 0.56 0.35 8.24 2.30 2.32
Best day 0.32% 0.52% 5.41% 7.56% 8.21%
Worst day -0.23% -0.40% -1.25% -3.21% -3.48%
Positive days 17 16 16 16 16
Negative days 13 14 14 14 14
Round trips 17 14 12 12 12
Winning / losing trades 17 / 0 14 / 0 12 / 0 12 / 0 12 / 0
Trades per day 0.57 0.47 0.40 0.40 0.40
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 0.4182 0.5647 8.1470 16.7657 18.3229
Average win 0.4182 0.5647 8.1470 16.7657 18.3229
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 0.4182 0.5647 8.1470 16.7657 18.3229
Max win streak 17 14 12 12 12
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 81.16% 83.51% 90.57% 94.13% 94.13%
Turnover 0.01 0.01 0.10 0.20 0.22
Realised P&L 7.11 7.91 97.76 201.19 219.87
Unrealised P&L -4.09 -7.02 -27.17 -54.74 -59.88
Fees paid 1.76 3.08 6.54 7.75 8.48
Fee drag 0.18% 0.31% 0.65% 0.78% 0.85%
Final equity 1003.02 1000.89 1070.59 1146.44 1159.99

Every number on this page is read from the run record that produced it — the audit pipeline writes the page and the record together, so the two cannot drift apart.

What the guard is, and what a better number under it means. The break-even guard refuses any exit below average entry plus fees. It cannot improve a strategy's judgement — it can only stop it selling at a loss, which means holding the position instead. Across the pack that turns a strategy that churned into one that buys and waits: trade counts collapse and time in market rises towards 100%. In a window where the asset itself rose, that reads as a much better return while being strictly less of a strategy.

So read the return next to round trips, time in market and edge vs buy and hold. The last of those is the one that matters: not one strategy in this matrix beat simply holding the asset, in either run.

Ignore the win rate and the profit factor under the guard. Both count closed trades only, and the guard closes nothing at a loss — in all 101 guarded runs the number of losing closed trades is exactly zero. So the win rate goes to 100% and the profit factor becomes undefined for arithmetic reasons, while the losses sit in the position that is still open. The unrealised row is where they went.