← Ehlers_Roofing_Momentum

Ehlers_Roofing_Momentum — metrics

Unguarded: PASSGuarded: FAIL · 1 failDirectionalgunbot-quant

BTCUSDT · 2026-08-13 01:50 → 2026-09-12 01:50 UTC (30 days) · 0.03% fee + 2 bps slippage · 1,000 quote, one figure for every cell

The same document for both runs of the same measurement — first as the strategy ships, then with the break-even guard. Everything else about the two runs is identical.

As it ships PASS

Exits: the strategy's own exits, stops included

The metric set the portfolio dashboard reports, computed per cell so a backtested configuration and a running one read on the same axes. Portfolio-level measures (concentration, pairwise correlation, beta against a benchmark) are omitted: one strategy on one pair has no cross-sectional structure to measure, and printing a null would imply the number exists.

1m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return -6.93% -13.68% -22.73% -36.81% -40.54%
CAGR -58.24% -83.31% -95.66% -99.62% -99.82%
Buy and hold 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88%
Edge vs B&H -28.81% -35.57% -44.61% -58.69% -62.42%
Volatility (ann.) 2.32% 5.76% 19.49% 26.21% 28.61%
Sharpe -37.70 -31.08 -16.00 -21.17 -21.97
Sortino -22.86 -20.19 -12.98 -20.49 -22.43
Calmar -8.41 -6.08 -3.85 -2.66 -2.43
Omega 0.63 0.70 0.87 0.87 0.87
Max drawdown 6.93% 13.69% 24.85% 37.42% 41.04%
Ulcer index 0.0396 0.0774 0.1325 0.2056 0.2277
Drawdown episodes 1 3 11 10 10
Longest underwater (days) 30.0 29.9 21.7 21.7 21.7
Recovery factor -1.00 -1.00 -0.91 -0.98 -0.99
VaR 95% -0.353% -0.823% -2.171% -3.418% -3.725%
VaR 99% -0.395% -0.844% -2.271% -3.950% -4.399%
CVaR 95% -0.374% -0.834% -2.221% -3.684% -4.062%
Skew 2.82 3.77 2.14 1.84 1.83
Excess kurtosis 10.18 16.03 3.87 3.54 3.57
Best day 0.28% 1.21% 3.64% 4.21% 4.53%
Worst day -0.39% -0.84% -2.27% -3.95% -4.40%
Positive days 1 1 4 4 4
Negative days 29 29 26 26 26
Round trips 753 753 753 753 753
Winning / losing trades 45 / 708 43 / 710 56 / 697 111 / 642 112 / 641
Trades per day 25.10 25.10 25.10 25.10 25.10
Win rate 5.98% 5.71% 7.44% 14.74% 14.87%
Profit factor 0.18 0.21 0.50 0.49 0.49
Payoff ratio 2.87 3.41 6.20 2.84 2.78
Expectancy -0.0920 -0.1817 -0.3018 -0.4888 -0.5384
Average win 0.3439 0.8281 4.0323 3.2088 3.4141
Average loss 0.1197 0.2429 0.6501 1.1281 1.2290
Average trade -0.0920 -0.1817 -0.3018 -0.4888 -0.5384
Max win streak 3 3 2 3 3
Max loss streak 117 80 63 34 34
Time in market 15.37% 21.66% 35.02% 48.96% 50.88%
Turnover 0.10 0.21 0.68 1.08 1.17
Realised P&L -69.26 -136.85 -227.29 -368.06 -405.41
Unrealised P&L 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.00 -0.00
Fees paid 48.24 93.94 209.98 288.42 307.68
Fee drag 4.82% 9.39% 21.00% 28.84% 30.77%
Final equity 930.74 863.15 772.71 631.94 594.59

3m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return -2.59% -3.14% -6.60% -12.07% -7.59%
CAGR -27.35% -32.17% -56.43% -79.09% -61.75%
Buy and hold 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86%
Edge vs B&H -24.45% -25.00% -28.46% -33.93% -29.45%
Volatility (ann.) 1.90% 6.47% 18.03% 23.91% 27.94%
Sharpe -16.83 -5.97 -4.52 -6.42 -3.30
Sortino -10.48 -4.31 -3.71 -6.25 -3.45
Calmar -10.55 -9.55 -5.44 -4.47 -3.13
Omega 0.74 0.91 0.94 0.93 0.96
Max drawdown 2.59% 3.37% 10.36% 17.69% 19.74%
Ulcer index 0.0133 0.0180 0.0546 0.0837 0.0949
Drawdown episodes 1 8 16 22 36
Longest underwater (days) 30.0 22.6 21.7 21.7 21.7
Recovery factor -1.00 -0.93 -0.64 -0.68 -0.38
VaR 95% -0.165% -0.372% -1.178% -1.934% -2.173%
VaR 99% -0.165% -0.412% -1.209% -1.996% -2.285%
CVaR 95% -0.165% -0.392% -1.194% -1.965% -2.229%
Skew 0.89 3.92 2.21 1.68 1.78
Excess kurtosis 0.39 16.00 4.81 2.99 3.05
Best day 0.07% 2.08% 3.34% 4.24% 6.54%
Worst day -0.16% -0.41% -1.21% -2.00% -2.29%
Positive days 3 4 6 6 7
Negative days 26 25 23 23 22
Round trips 257 257 257 256 256
Winning / losing trades 26 / 231 20 / 237 24 / 233 40 / 216 46 / 210
Trades per day 8.57 8.57 8.57 8.53 8.53
Win rate 10.12% 7.78% 9.34% 15.63% 17.97%
Profit factor 0.26 0.59 0.68 0.66 0.82
Payoff ratio 2.27 6.95 6.59 3.56 3.74
Expectancy -0.1009 -0.1222 -0.2568 -0.4715 -0.2967
Average win 0.3418 2.2287 5.8012 5.8615 7.4348
Average loss 0.1507 0.3205 0.8808 1.6443 1.9902
Average trade -0.1009 -0.1222 -0.2568 -0.4715 -0.2967
Max win streak 2 2 2 3 3
Max loss streak 35 32 34 16 16
Time in market 19.26% 28.08% 38.94% 49.11% 52.24%
Turnover 0.04 0.12 0.34 0.59 0.76
Realised P&L -25.92 -31.39 -66.00 -120.70 -75.95
Unrealised P&L -0.00 0.00 -0.00 0.02 0.01
Fees paid 16.38 32.30 76.31 113.60 131.02
Fee drag 1.64% 3.23% 7.63% 11.36% 13.10%
Final equity 974.08 968.61 934.00 879.32 924.06

5m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return -1.91% -2.01% -2.70% 0.40% -0.57%
CAGR -20.91% -21.93% -28.34% 5.03% -6.72%
Buy and hold 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83%
Edge vs B&H -23.74% -23.84% -24.53% -21.42% -22.40%
Volatility (ann.) 1.43% 5.82% 17.12% 27.23% 29.78%
Sharpe -16.39 -4.22 -1.86 0.32 -0.08
Sortino -9.06 -2.92 -1.62 0.33 -0.09
Calmar -10.55 -8.30 -3.42 0.36 -0.42
Omega 0.71 0.91 0.97 1.00 1.00
Max drawdown 1.98% 2.64% 8.28% 14.01% 15.97%
Ulcer index 0.0108 0.0146 0.0451 0.0703 0.0798
Drawdown episodes 6 6 13 30 30
Longest underwater (days) 29.9 29.9 23.2 21.7 21.7
Recovery factor -0.96 -0.76 -0.33 0.03 -0.04
VaR 95% -0.156% -0.309% -1.091% -1.593% -2.012%
VaR 99% -0.198% -0.356% -1.353% -1.690% -2.184%
CVaR 95% -0.177% -0.332% -1.222% -1.641% -2.098%
Skew -0.17 4.12 3.36 2.26 2.15
Excess kurtosis -0.19 17.80 11.78 4.92 4.57
Best day 0.04% 1.75% 6.68% 7.32% 7.94%
Worst day -0.20% -0.36% -1.35% -1.69% -2.18%
Positive days 3 4 5 9 10
Negative days 27 26 25 21 20
Round trips 149 149 149 149 149
Winning / losing trades 17 / 132 18 / 131 14 / 135 27 / 122 25 / 124
Trades per day 4.97 4.97 4.97 4.97 4.97
Win rate 11.41% 12.08% 9.40% 18.12% 16.78%
Profit factor 0.21 0.58 0.82 1.02 0.98
Payoff ratio 1.63 4.25 7.93 4.60 4.88
Expectancy -0.1278 -0.1345 -0.1781 0.0332 -0.0316
Average win 0.2975 1.5628 8.7715 10.2747 12.1253
Average loss 0.1825 0.3677 1.1062 2.2334 2.4826
Average trade -0.1278 -0.1345 -0.1781 0.0332 -0.0316
Max win streak 2 2 1 2 2
Max loss streak 32 28 28 28 28
Time in market 18.04% 27.32% 38.75% 51.95% 52.46%
Turnover 0.03 0.08 0.27 0.55 0.61
Realised P&L -19.04 -20.04 -26.53 4.94 -4.71
Unrealised P&L -0.06 -0.10 -0.48 -0.90 -0.99
Fees paid 9.22 18.62 45.73 72.68 79.74
Fee drag 0.92% 1.86% 4.57% 7.27% 7.97%
Final equity 980.90 979.86 972.98 1004.04 994.30

Every number on this page is read from the run record that produced it — the audit pipeline writes the page and the record together, so the two cannot drift apart.

With the break-even guard FAIL · 1 fail

Exits: no exit below average entry plus fees, stops included

The metric set the portfolio dashboard reports, computed per cell so a backtested configuration and a running one read on the same axes. Portfolio-level measures (concentration, pairwise correlation, beta against a benchmark) are omitted: one strategy on one pair has no cross-sectional structure to measure, and printing a null would imply the number exists.

1m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 0.70% 2.33% 9.91% 12.43% 13.31%
CAGR 8.87% 32.39% 215.78% 315.90% 357.50%
Buy and hold 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88%
Edge vs B&H -21.18% -19.55% -11.97% -9.45% -8.57%
Volatility (ann.) 3.97% 10.24% 30.99% 36.16% 39.24%
Sharpe 2.16 2.79 3.87 4.12 4.07
Sortino 2.07 2.72 3.84 4.10 4.05
Calmar 14.48 15.56 36.03 48.78 50.90
Omega 1.01 1.01 1.02 1.02 1.02
Max drawdown 0.61% 2.08% 5.99% 6.48% 7.02%
Ulcer index 0.0028 0.0084 0.0284 0.0309 0.0335
Drawdown episodes 42 44 76 81 81
Longest underwater (days) 8.4 8.2 18.0 18.0 18.0
Recovery factor 1.14 1.12 1.66 1.92 1.90
VaR 95% -0.202% -0.731% -1.830% -1.990% -2.164%
VaR 99% -0.231% -1.253% -3.090% -3.354% -3.638%
CVaR 95% -0.216% -0.992% -2.460% -2.672% -2.901%
Skew 1.04 0.90 1.47 1.41 1.39
Excess kurtosis 1.12 2.31 2.69 2.38 2.33
Best day 0.53% 1.78% 6.48% 7.25% 7.82%
Worst day -0.23% -1.25% -3.09% -3.35% -3.64%
Positive days 15 16 16 16 16
Negative days 15 14 14 14 14
Round trips 33 29 26 30 31
Winning / losing trades 33 / 0 29 / 0 26 / 0 30 / 0 31 / 0
Trades per day 1.10 0.97 0.87 1.00 1.03
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 0.3499 1.0781 5.8410 6.1125 6.3885
Average win 0.3499 1.0781 5.8410 6.1125 6.3885
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 0.3499 1.0781 5.8410 6.1125 6.3885
Max win streak 33 29 26 30 31
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 94.43% 96.27% 98.94% 98.86% 98.81%
Turnover 0.01 0.03 0.15 0.18 0.20
Realised P&L 11.55 31.26 151.87 183.38 198.04
Unrealised P&L -4.54 -7.93 -52.74 -59.09 -64.92
Fees paid 3.82 8.00 14.36 18.53 20.91
Fee drag 0.38% 0.80% 1.44% 1.85% 2.09%
Final equity 1007.01 1023.33 1099.12 1124.28 1133.13

3m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 0.38% 4.73% 13.39% 16.25% 18.56%
CAGR 4.75% 75.57% 361.27% 524.82% 694.07%
Buy and hold 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86%
Edge vs B&H -21.48% -17.13% -8.47% -5.61% -3.30%
Volatility (ann.) 3.75% 9.62% 23.84% 30.55% 33.08%
Sharpe 1.26 5.90 6.53 6.15 6.43
Sortino 1.21 6.35 6.83 6.35 6.65
Calmar 5.68 44.10 68.97 84.71 105.73
Omega 1.01 1.06 1.06 1.05 1.05
Max drawdown 0.84% 1.71% 5.24% 6.20% 6.56%
Ulcer index 0.0037 0.0077 0.0217 0.0266 0.0279
Drawdown episodes 20 39 47 54 60
Longest underwater (days) 9.7 18.0 18.0 9.8 9.7
Recovery factor 0.46 2.76 2.56 2.62 2.83
VaR 95% -0.259% -0.507% -1.584% -1.958% -2.129%
VaR 99% -0.424% -0.828% -2.552% -3.140% -3.407%
CVaR 95% -0.342% -0.668% -2.068% -2.549% -2.768%
Skew 0.60 3.10 1.46 1.46 1.50
Excess kurtosis 2.08 11.19 2.17 2.03 2.14
Best day 0.55% 3.54% 5.56% 6.60% 7.27%
Worst day -0.42% -0.83% -2.55% -3.14% -3.41%
Positive days 15 15 15 15 15
Negative days 14 14 14 14 14
Round trips 17 17 17 17 17
Winning / losing trades 17 / 0 17 / 0 17 / 0 17 / 0 17 / 0
Trades per day 0.57 0.57 0.57 0.57 0.57
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 0.4764 3.2366 8.7353 11.3461 12.7422
Average win 0.4764 3.2366 8.7353 11.3461 12.7422
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 0.4764 3.2366 8.7353 11.3461 12.7422
Max win streak 17 17 17 17 17
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 93.16% 96.64% 98.68% 98.69% 98.69%
Turnover 0.01 0.06 0.15 0.19 0.22
Realised P&L 8.10 55.02 148.50 192.88 216.62
Unrealised P&L -4.28 -7.67 -14.62 -30.37 -30.97
Fees paid 1.71 4.14 8.82 10.36 11.31
Fee drag 0.17% 0.41% 0.88% 1.04% 1.13%
Final equity 1003.82 1047.35 1133.88 1162.52 1185.65

5m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 0.30% 4.20% 14.43% 16.14% 17.64%
CAGR 3.75% 64.94% 415.49% 517.15% 621.69%
Buy and hold 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83%
Edge vs B&H -21.53% -17.63% -7.40% -5.69% -4.19%
Volatility (ann.) 3.23% 9.02% 27.65% 35.22% 38.25%
Sharpe 1.15 5.60 6.07 5.34 5.36
Sortino 1.07 6.18 6.47 5.54 5.55
Calmar 6.44 55.28 73.89 78.28 87.27
Omega 1.01 1.08 1.07 1.06 1.06
Max drawdown 0.58% 1.17% 5.62% 6.61% 7.12%
Ulcer index 0.0025 0.0055 0.0261 0.0302 0.0326
Drawdown episodes 29 27 38 49 49
Longest underwater (days) 8.4 8.4 13.5 8.2 8.2
Recovery factor 0.52 3.57 2.57 2.44 2.48
VaR 95% -0.186% -0.377% -1.756% -1.946% -2.076%
VaR 99% -0.222% -0.380% -2.954% -3.206% -3.477%
CVaR 95% -0.204% -0.378% -2.355% -2.576% -2.776%
Skew 0.74 4.29 1.71 1.48 1.48
Excess kurtosis 0.53 18.84 3.24 2.19 2.19
Best day 0.36% 4.28% 6.97% 7.56% 8.21%
Worst day -0.22% -0.38% -2.95% -3.21% -3.48%
Positive days 16 16 16 16 16
Negative days 14 14 14 14 14
Round trips 17 17 15 15 15
Winning / losing trades 17 / 0 17 / 0 15 / 0 15 / 0 15 / 0
Trades per day 0.57 0.57 0.50 0.50 0.50
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 0.4188 2.8996 11.5558 14.4538 15.8077
Average win 0.4188 2.8996 11.5558 14.4538 15.8077
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 0.4188 2.8996 11.5558 14.4538 15.8077
Max win streak 17 17 15 15 15
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 84.27% 87.27% 95.27% 95.19% 95.19%
Turnover 0.01 0.05 0.17 0.22 0.24
Realised P&L 7.12 49.29 173.34 216.81 237.12
Unrealised P&L -4.09 -7.31 -29.04 -55.46 -60.73
Fees paid 1.63 3.71 7.45 8.87 9.63
Fee drag 0.16% 0.37% 0.75% 0.89% 0.96%
Final equity 1003.03 1041.99 1144.30 1161.35 1176.38

Every number on this page is read from the run record that produced it — the audit pipeline writes the page and the record together, so the two cannot drift apart.

What the guard is, and what a better number under it means. The break-even guard refuses any exit below average entry plus fees. It cannot improve a strategy's judgement — it can only stop it selling at a loss, which means holding the position instead. Across the pack that turns a strategy that churned into one that buys and waits: trade counts collapse and time in market rises towards 100%. In a window where the asset itself rose, that reads as a much better return while being strictly less of a strategy.

So read the return next to round trips, time in market and edge vs buy and hold. The last of those is the one that matters: not one strategy in this matrix beat simply holding the asset, in either run.

Ignore the win rate and the profit factor under the guard. Both count closed trades only, and the guard closes nothing at a loss — in all 101 guarded runs the number of losing closed trades is exactly zero. So the win rate goes to 100% and the profit factor becomes undefined for arithmetic reasons, while the losses sit in the position that is still open. The unrealised row is where they went.