← Ehlers_SuperSmoother

Ehlers_SuperSmoother — metrics

Unguarded: PASSGuarded: WARN · 1 warnDirectionalgunbot-quant

BTCUSDT · 2026-08-13 01:50 → 2026-09-12 01:50 UTC (30 days) · 0.03% fee + 2 bps slippage · 1,000 quote, one figure for every cell

The same document for both runs of the same measurement — first as the strategy ships, then with the break-even guard. Everything else about the two runs is identical.

As it ships PASS

Exits: the strategy's own exits, stops included

The metric set the portfolio dashboard reports, computed per cell so a backtested configuration and a running one read on the same axes. Portfolio-level measures (concentration, pairwise correlation, beta against a benchmark) are omitted: one strategy on one pair has no cross-sectional structure to measure, and printing a null would imply the number exists.

1m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return -22.90% -36.63% -64.14% -72.26% -73.12%
CAGR -95.77% -99.61% -100.00% -100.00% -100.00%
Buy and hold 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88%
Edge vs B&H -44.78% -58.52% -86.02% -94.14% -95.00%
Volatility (ann.) 4.74% 9.07% 17.56% 24.43% 26.68%
Sharpe -66.76 -61.17 -70.95 -63.74 -59.78
Sortino -70.03 -60.38 -64.63 -59.30 -57.98
Calmar -4.18 -2.72 -1.56 -1.38 -1.37
Omega 0.53 0.55 0.55 0.63 0.65
Max drawdown 22.90% 36.63% 64.14% 72.26% 73.12%
Ulcer index 0.1298 0.2116 0.3991 0.4526 0.4574
Drawdown episodes 1 1 1 1 1
Longest underwater (days) 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0
Recovery factor -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00
VaR 95% -1.163% -2.097% -4.528% -6.391% -6.480%
VaR 99% -1.201% -2.158% -4.780% -6.504% -6.913%
CVaR 95% -1.182% -2.128% -4.654% -6.448% -6.697%
Skew 2.60 2.61 2.10 1.19 1.16
Excess kurtosis 7.30 7.27 6.12 1.47 1.22
Best day 0.29% 0.79% 0.58% -0.08% 0.39%
Worst day -1.20% -2.16% -4.78% -6.50% -6.91%
Positive days 1 2 1 0 1
Negative days 29 28 29 30 29
Round trips 2,872 2,727 2,720 2,000 1,844
Winning / losing trades 161 / 2,711 120 / 2,607 128 / 2,592 196 / 1,804 195 / 1,649
Trades per day 95.73 90.90 90.67 66.67 61.47
Win rate 5.61% 4.40% 4.71% 9.80% 10.57%
Profit factor 0.16 0.17 0.18 0.26 0.28
Payoff ratio 2.73 3.78 3.71 2.43 2.37
Expectancy -0.0797 -0.1343 -0.2358 -0.3613 -0.3965
Average win 0.2750 0.6423 1.1222 1.3227 1.4610
Average loss 0.1008 0.1701 0.3029 0.5443 0.6162
Average trade -0.0797 -0.1343 -0.2358 -0.3613 -0.3965
Max win streak 3 3 3 3 3
Max loss streak 164 157 156 75 71
Time in market 39.15% 39.30% 39.31% 39.70% 39.75%
Turnover 0.32 0.52 0.93 1.24 1.30
Realised P&L -228.98 -366.34 -641.38 -722.63 -731.21
Unrealised P&L -0.00 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00
Fees paid 158.08 256.66 447.29 505.96 508.43
Fee drag 15.81% 25.67% 44.73% 50.60% 50.84%
Final equity 771.02 633.66 358.62 277.37 268.79

3m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return -6.90% -11.30% -25.08% -33.59% -32.98%
CAGR -58.13% -76.74% -97.02% -99.31% -99.23%
Buy and hold 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86%
Edge vs B&H -28.76% -33.16% -46.94% -55.45% -54.84%
Volatility (ann.) 3.82% 7.33% 15.82% 22.10% 24.07%
Sharpe -22.77 -19.85 -22.13 -22.43 -20.11
Sortino -22.89 -20.07 -21.46 -22.43 -20.67
Calmar -8.35 -6.28 -3.81 -2.95 -2.90
Omega 0.73 0.75 0.73 0.77 0.79
Max drawdown 6.96% 12.21% 25.47% 33.72% 34.19%
Ulcer index 0.0363 0.0645 0.1345 0.1824 0.1826
Drawdown episodes 7 11 2 8 10
Longest underwater (days) 21.7 21.7 21.7 29.8 21.7
Recovery factor -0.99 -0.92 -0.98 -1.00 -0.96
VaR 95% -0.470% -0.818% -1.730% -2.598% -2.805%
VaR 99% -0.488% -0.830% -1.940% -3.042% -3.323%
CVaR 95% -0.479% -0.824% -1.835% -2.820% -3.064%
Skew 3.20 3.25 2.33 2.17 2.19
Excess kurtosis 10.73 10.86 5.25 4.76 4.73
Best day 1.05% 2.15% 3.07% 3.55% 4.18%
Worst day -0.49% -0.83% -1.94% -3.04% -3.32%
Positive days 3 3 4 2 3
Negative days 26 26 25 27 26
Round trips 939 875 886 701 645
Winning / losing trades 99 / 840 77 / 798 55 / 831 94 / 607 92 / 553
Trades per day 31.30 29.17 29.54 23.37 21.50
Win rate 10.54% 8.80% 6.21% 13.41% 14.26%
Profit factor 0.38 0.39 0.36 0.43 0.46
Payoff ratio 3.20 4.05 5.46 2.77 2.77
Expectancy -0.0735 -0.1291 -0.2830 -0.4792 -0.5113
Average win 0.4222 0.9421 2.5781 2.6907 3.0684
Average loss 0.1320 0.2324 0.4724 0.9701 1.1068
Average trade -0.0735 -0.1291 -0.2830 -0.4792 -0.5113
Max win streak 3 3 3 5 5
Max loss streak 62 56 83 35 32
Time in market 40.69% 40.82% 40.80% 41.02% 41.06%
Turnover 0.15 0.26 0.53 0.84 0.89
Realised P&L -69.04 -112.95 -250.77 -335.94 -329.78
Unrealised P&L 0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.00
Fees paid 53.79 90.73 193.43 249.71 252.54
Fee drag 5.38% 9.07% 19.34% 24.97% 25.25%
Final equity 930.96 887.05 749.23 664.06 670.22

5m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return -3.32% -4.21% -13.03% -14.63% -13.68%
CAGR -33.65% -40.74% -81.71% -85.41% -83.30%
Buy and hold 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83%
Edge vs B&H -25.14% -26.04% -34.86% -36.46% -35.51%
Volatility (ann.) 4.36% 8.70% 17.23% 23.76% 25.98%
Sharpe -9.38 -5.97 -9.77 -7.98 -6.76
Sortino -9.77 -6.63 -10.13 -8.49 -7.45
Calmar -7.96 -5.79 -4.98 -3.99 -4.01
Omega 0.83 0.88 0.83 0.88 0.90
Max drawdown 4.23% 7.04% 16.42% 21.41% 20.77%
Ulcer index 0.0214 0.0361 0.0819 0.1043 0.1001
Drawdown episodes 14 16 13 24 22
Longest underwater (days) 21.7 21.7 21.7 21.7 21.7
Recovery factor -0.78 -0.60 -0.79 -0.68 -0.66
VaR 95% -0.359% -0.611% -1.329% -2.044% -1.990%
VaR 99% -0.368% -0.652% -1.356% -2.126% -2.011%
CVaR 95% -0.364% -0.631% -1.342% -2.085% -2.001%
Skew 2.68 2.81 2.23 1.95 1.91
Excess kurtosis 7.49 8.07 5.01 4.33 4.28
Best day 1.05% 2.27% 3.69% 5.01% 5.07%
Worst day -0.37% -0.65% -1.36% -2.13% -2.01%
Positive days 3 5 5 7 9
Negative days 27 25 25 23 21
Round trips 565 523 556 407 379
Winning / losing trades 67 / 498 43 / 480 41 / 515 51 / 356 54 / 325
Trades per day 18.83 17.43 18.53 13.57 12.63
Win rate 11.86% 8.22% 7.37% 12.53% 14.25%
Profit factor 0.55 0.66 0.56 0.67 0.70
Payoff ratio 4.11 7.41 7.09 4.67 4.23
Expectancy -0.0587 -0.0805 -0.2344 -0.3595 -0.3609
Average win 0.6130 1.9353 4.1165 5.7981 5.9685
Average loss 0.1490 0.2611 0.5807 1.2416 1.4126
Average trade -0.0587 -0.0805 -0.2344 -0.3595 -0.3609
Max win streak 2 2 1 3 3
Max loss streak 43 41 55 29 24
Time in market 40.96% 41.09% 41.12% 41.34% 41.37%
Turnover 0.12 0.21 0.47 0.74 0.78
Realised P&L -33.16 -42.10 -130.30 -146.31 -136.79
Unrealised P&L 0.00 0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.00
Fees paid 33.13 56.58 129.19 165.41 168.88
Fee drag 3.31% 5.66% 12.92% 16.54% 16.89%
Final equity 966.84 957.90 869.70 853.69 863.21

Every number on this page is read from the run record that produced it — the audit pipeline writes the page and the record together, so the two cannot drift apart.

With the break-even guard WARN · 1 warn

Exits: no exit below average entry plus fees, stops included

The metric set the portfolio dashboard reports, computed per cell so a backtested configuration and a running one read on the same axes. Portfolio-level measures (concentration, pairwise correlation, beta against a benchmark) are omitted: one strategy on one pair has no cross-sectional structure to measure, and printing a null would imply the number exists.

1m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 2.33% 4.17% 10.50% 8.16% 6.33%
CAGR 32.35% 64.34% 237.00% 159.79% 111.10%
Buy and hold 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88%
Edge vs B&H -19.55% -17.71% -11.38% -13.72% -15.55%
Volatility (ann.) 6.23% 12.36% 24.11% 22.54% 16.59%
Sharpe 4.53 4.08 5.16 4.35 4.59
Sortino 5.03 4.39 5.24 4.32 4.57
Calmar 28.07 25.77 58.24 38.53 40.53
Omega 1.03 1.02 1.03 1.02 1.02
Max drawdown 1.15% 2.50% 4.07% 4.15% 2.74%
Ulcer index 0.0041 0.0104 0.0155 0.0166 0.0114
Drawdown episodes 44 39 46 75 82
Longest underwater (days) 9.5 21.7 9.7 8.2 8.2
Recovery factor 2.02 1.67 2.58 1.97 2.31
VaR 95% -0.244% -0.566% -1.064% -1.071% -0.909%
VaR 99% -0.273% -0.885% -1.816% -1.466% -1.246%
CVaR 95% -0.259% -0.726% -1.440% -1.268% -1.077%
Skew 3.03 2.69 1.72 1.42 1.30
Excess kurtosis 10.78 9.37 3.57 1.81 1.46
Best day 1.62% 3.28% 5.00% 3.81% 2.79%
Worst day -0.27% -0.88% -1.82% -1.47% -1.25%
Positive days 18 17 16 16 16
Negative days 12 13 14 14 14
Round trips 46 39 37 48 49
Winning / losing trades 46 / 0 39 / 0 37 / 0 48 / 0 49 / 0
Trades per day 1.53 1.30 1.23 1.60 1.63
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 0.7099 1.5811 3.2596 2.4418 1.7466
Average win 0.7099 1.5811 3.2596 2.4418 1.7466
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 0.7099 1.5811 3.2596 2.4418 1.7466
Max win streak 46 39 37 48 49
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 98.16% 98.92% 99.25% 98.56% 98.35%
Turnover 0.03 0.06 0.12 0.12 0.09
Realised P&L 32.65 61.66 120.61 117.21 85.58
Unrealised P&L -9.35 -19.99 -15.60 -35.57 -22.25
Fees paid 5.20 9.22 19.72 18.52 13.21
Fee drag 0.52% 0.92% 1.97% 1.85% 1.32%
Final equity 1023.30 1041.68 1105.01 1081.63 1063.33

3m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 2.65% 5.34% 8.16% 8.09% 6.24%
CAGR 37.45% 88.25% 159.60% 157.63% 108.97%
Buy and hold 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86%
Edge vs B&H -19.21% -16.52% -13.70% -13.77% -15.62%
Volatility (ann.) 5.17% 10.06% 21.25% 22.42% 16.17%
Sharpe 6.18 6.34 4.59 4.33 4.64
Sortino 6.77 7.01 4.65 4.33 4.65
Calmar 36.31 43.64 28.91 39.30 38.45
Omega 1.06 1.06 1.04 1.03 1.04
Max drawdown 1.03% 2.02% 5.52% 4.01% 2.83%
Ulcer index 0.0054 0.0105 0.0238 0.0181 0.0127
Drawdown episodes 36 34 40 61 68
Longest underwater (days) 21.7 21.7 21.7 9.5 9.5
Recovery factor 2.57 2.64 1.48 2.02 2.20
VaR 95% -0.259% -0.507% -1.281% -1.270% -0.896%
VaR 99% -0.424% -0.828% -1.699% -1.561% -1.099%
CVaR 95% -0.342% -0.668% -1.490% -1.416% -0.997%
Skew 2.97 3.08 1.99 1.45 1.50
Excess kurtosis 9.43 10.04 4.19 1.92 2.09
Best day 2.01% 4.06% 5.11% 4.28% 3.13%
Worst day -0.42% -0.83% -1.70% -1.56% -1.10%
Positive days 14 14 16 15 15
Negative days 15 15 13 14 14
Round trips 25 22 24 29 30
Winning / losing trades 25 / 0 22 / 0 24 / 0 29 / 0 30 / 0
Trades per day 0.83 0.73 0.80 0.97 1.00
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 1.3398 3.0721 5.3343 4.0178 2.8946
Average win 1.3398 3.0721 5.3343 4.0178 2.8946
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 1.3398 3.0721 5.3343 4.0178 2.8946
Max win streak 25 22 24 29 30
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 97.52% 98.74% 97.66% 96.88% 96.84%
Turnover 0.03 0.07 0.13 0.12 0.09
Realised P&L 33.50 67.59 128.02 116.52 86.84
Unrealised P&L -7.01 -14.22 -46.46 -35.63 -24.39
Fees paid 2.80 5.21 13.00 11.24 8.12
Fee drag 0.28% 0.52% 1.30% 1.12% 0.81%
Final equity 1026.49 1053.37 1081.56 1080.88 1062.45

5m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 2.19% 4.56% 11.11% 8.75% 6.30%
CAGR 30.09% 71.98% 260.31% 177.39% 110.18%
Buy and hold 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83%
Edge vs B&H -19.64% -17.27% -10.72% -13.08% -15.53%
Volatility (ann.) 5.19% 10.51% 18.77% 23.08% 16.61%
Sharpe 5.10 5.21 6.92 4.54 4.56
Sortino 5.50 5.69 7.72 4.68 4.70
Calmar 27.55 33.71 65.09 45.23 39.83
Omega 1.06 1.07 1.09 1.05 1.05
Max drawdown 1.09% 2.14% 4.00% 3.92% 2.77%
Ulcer index 0.0059 0.0112 0.0199 0.0185 0.0130
Drawdown episodes 25 24 28 42 43
Longest underwater (days) 21.7 21.7 21.7 9.6 9.6
Recovery factor 2.00 2.13 2.78 2.23 2.28
VaR 95% -0.252% -0.494% -1.022% -1.232% -0.867%
VaR 99% -0.433% -0.845% -1.736% -2.087% -1.476%
CVaR 95% -0.343% -0.670% -1.379% -1.659% -1.172%
Skew 2.37 2.50 2.43 1.51 1.53
Excess kurtosis 5.92 6.48 6.04 2.40 2.55
Best day 1.40% 2.96% 5.74% 4.53% 3.23%
Worst day -0.43% -0.85% -1.74% -2.09% -1.48%
Positive days 16 16 17 16 16
Negative days 14 14 13 14 14
Round trips 18 18 18 18 19
Winning / losing trades 18 / 0 18 / 0 18 / 0 18 / 0 19 / 0
Trades per day 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.63
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 1.6012 3.3179 7.0198 6.7094 4.5076
Average win 1.6012 3.3179 7.0198 6.7094 4.5076
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 1.6012 3.3179 7.0198 6.7094 4.5076
Max win streak 18 18 18 18 19
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 97.54% 97.89% 98.29% 97.95% 97.80%
Turnover 0.03 0.06 0.13 0.12 0.09
Realised P&L 28.82 59.72 126.36 120.77 85.64
Unrealised P&L -6.97 -14.15 -15.25 -33.30 -22.69
Fees paid 1.93 3.99 9.34 7.17 5.25
Fee drag 0.19% 0.40% 0.93% 0.72% 0.53%
Final equity 1021.86 1045.58 1111.10 1087.47 1062.96

Every number on this page is read from the run record that produced it — the audit pipeline writes the page and the record together, so the two cannot drift apart.

What the guard is, and what a better number under it means. The break-even guard refuses any exit below average entry plus fees. It cannot improve a strategy's judgement — it can only stop it selling at a loss, which means holding the position instead. Across the pack that turns a strategy that churned into one that buys and waits: trade counts collapse and time in market rises towards 100%. In a window where the asset itself rose, that reads as a much better return while being strictly less of a strategy.

So read the return next to round trips, time in market and edge vs buy and hold. The last of those is the one that matters: not one strategy in this matrix beat simply holding the asset, in either run.

Ignore the win rate and the profit factor under the guard. Both count closed trades only, and the guard closes nothing at a loss — in all 101 guarded runs the number of losing closed trades is exactly zero. So the win rate goes to 100% and the profit factor becomes undefined for arithmetic reasons, while the losses sit in the position that is still open. The unrealised row is where they went.