← Ehlers_iTrend

Ehlers_iTrend — metrics

Unguarded: PASSGuarded: PASSDirectionalgunbot-quant

BTCUSDT · 2026-08-13 01:50 → 2026-09-12 01:50 UTC (30 days) · 0.03% fee + 2 bps slippage · 1,000 quote, one figure for every cell

The same document for both runs of the same measurement — first as the strategy ships, then with the break-even guard. Everything else about the two runs is identical.

As it ships PASS

Exits: the strategy's own exits, stops included

The metric set the portfolio dashboard reports, computed per cell so a backtested configuration and a running one read on the same axes. Portfolio-level measures (concentration, pairwise correlation, beta against a benchmark) are omitted: one strategy on one pair has no cross-sectional structure to measure, and printing a null would imply the number exists.

1m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return -18.99% -30.76% -54.84% -72.50% -75.48%
CAGR -92.28% -98.86% -99.99% -100.00% -100.00%
Buy and hold 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88%
Edge vs B&H -40.87% -52.64% -76.72% -94.39% -97.36%
Volatility (ann.) 5.53% 9.72% 18.86% 24.94% 27.24%
Sharpe -46.26 -45.95 -51.20 -62.87 -62.65
Sortino -50.98 -49.19 -52.32 -61.79 -61.69
Calmar -4.86 -3.21 -1.82 -1.38 -1.32
Omega 0.64 0.67 0.67 0.65 0.65
Max drawdown 18.99% 30.76% 54.84% 72.50% 75.48%
Ulcer index 0.1074 0.1760 0.3300 0.4631 0.4873
Drawdown episodes 1 1 1 1 1
Longest underwater (days) 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0
Recovery factor -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00
VaR 95% -1.053% -1.751% -3.785% -6.061% -6.618%
VaR 99% -1.176% -2.074% -4.737% -7.473% -8.046%
CVaR 95% -1.115% -1.913% -4.261% -6.767% -7.332%
Skew 1.94 1.81 0.93 0.56 0.52
Excess kurtosis 5.85 4.27 1.27 0.66 0.46
Best day 0.36% 0.59% 0.28% -0.32% -0.57%
Worst day -1.18% -2.07% -4.74% -7.47% -8.05%
Positive days 1 1 2 0 0
Negative days 29 29 28 30 30
Round trips 2,178 2,017 1,958 1,949 1,948
Winning / losing trades 128 / 2,050 117 / 1,900 134 / 1,824 193 / 1,756 196 / 1,752
Trades per day 72.60 67.23 65.27 64.97 64.93
Win rate 5.88% 5.80% 6.84% 9.90% 10.06%
Profit factor 0.20 0.22 0.27 0.27 0.27
Payoff ratio 3.28 3.63 3.68 2.45 2.42
Expectancy -0.0872 -0.1525 -0.2801 -0.3720 -0.3875
Average win 0.3823 0.7563 1.5164 1.3827 1.4278
Average loss 0.1165 0.2085 0.4121 0.5649 0.5906
Average trade -0.0872 -0.1525 -0.2801 -0.3720 -0.3875
Max win streak 3 2 2 2 2
Max loss streak 152 182 89 89 89
Time in market 42.86% 42.99% 43.01% 43.02% 43.02%
Turnover 0.29 0.48 0.95 1.26 1.31
Realised P&L -189.86 -307.62 -548.41 -725.03 -754.81
Unrealised P&L -0.00 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00
Fees paid 129.04 210.23 370.47 482.70 500.67
Fee drag 12.90% 21.02% 37.05% 48.27% 50.07%
Final equity 810.14 692.38 451.59 274.97 245.19

3m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return -4.81% -8.31% -17.46% -29.09% -31.53%
CAGR -45.13% -65.19% -90.32% -98.47% -99.00%
Buy and hold 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86%
Edge vs B&H -26.67% -30.17% -39.32% -50.95% -53.39%
Volatility (ann.) 4.26% 8.41% 17.39% 23.32% 25.26%
Sharpe -14.08 -12.50 -13.34 -17.82 -18.12
Sortino -15.10 -13.50 -14.31 -18.60 -19.02
Calmar -8.21 -6.64 -4.43 -3.19 -2.95
Omega 0.82 0.84 0.84 0.81 0.81
Max drawdown 5.50% 9.81% 20.38% 30.84% 33.58%
Ulcer index 0.0278 0.0502 0.1049 0.1625 0.1770
Drawdown episodes 15 20 18 12 12
Longest underwater (days) 21.7 21.7 21.7 21.7 21.7
Recovery factor -0.88 -0.85 -0.86 -0.94 -0.94
VaR 95% -0.400% -0.940% -1.662% -2.856% -3.173%
VaR 99% -0.498% -0.945% -1.772% -2.873% -3.224%
CVaR 95% -0.449% -0.943% -1.717% -2.865% -3.199%
Skew 2.83 2.61 2.22 1.99 2.01
Excess kurtosis 8.11 6.96 4.37 3.72 3.83
Best day 1.19% 2.32% 3.60% 3.93% 4.40%
Worst day -0.50% -0.95% -1.77% -2.87% -3.22%
Positive days 4 4 4 4 4
Negative days 25 25 25 25 25
Round trips 702 676 668 668 668
Winning / losing trades 77 / 625 59 / 617 58 / 610 93 / 575 96 / 572
Trades per day 23.40 22.53 22.27 22.27 22.27
Win rate 10.97% 8.73% 8.68% 13.92% 14.37%
Profit factor 0.49 0.50 0.53 0.51 0.51
Payoff ratio 3.98 5.22 5.57 3.16 3.05
Expectancy -0.0686 -0.1229 -0.2614 -0.4354 -0.4720
Average win 0.6014 1.4034 3.3857 3.2672 3.4350
Average loss 0.1511 0.2688 0.6082 1.0343 1.1277
Average trade -0.0686 -0.1229 -0.2614 -0.4354 -0.4720
Max win streak 2 2 2 3 3
Max loss streak 38 40 43 31 31
Time in market 44.24% 44.31% 44.32% 44.32% 44.32%
Turnover 0.14 0.25 0.57 0.90 0.97
Realised P&L -48.13 -83.07 -174.64 -290.86 -315.29
Unrealised P&L 0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fees paid 42.86 75.34 159.46 244.13 262.95
Fee drag 4.29% 7.53% 15.95% 24.41% 26.29%
Final equity 951.87 916.93 825.36 709.14 684.71

5m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return -2.17% -3.57% -7.26% -14.30% -15.67%
CAGR -23.43% -35.77% -60.02% -84.71% -87.43%
Buy and hold 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83%
Edge vs B&H -24.00% -25.40% -29.09% -36.13% -37.50%
Volatility (ann.) 4.89% 9.68% 18.52% 23.95% 26.06%
Sharpe -5.43 -4.53 -4.86 -7.72 -7.83
Sortino -6.04 -5.20 -5.59 -8.73 -8.84
Calmar -6.39 -5.31 -4.50 -4.10 -4.02
Omega 0.90 0.91 0.92 0.89 0.89
Max drawdown 3.67% 6.73% 13.35% 20.64% 21.73%
Ulcer index 0.0201 0.0375 0.0657 0.1036 0.1108
Drawdown episodes 14 15 18 21 20
Longest underwater (days) 21.7 21.7 21.7 21.7 21.7
Recovery factor -0.59 -0.53 -0.54 -0.69 -0.72
VaR 95% -0.377% -0.745% -1.296% -2.265% -2.284%
VaR 99% -0.426% -0.822% -1.601% -2.884% -3.316%
CVaR 95% -0.402% -0.784% -1.448% -2.574% -2.800%
Skew 2.11 2.20 1.67 1.42 1.40
Excess kurtosis 3.79 4.26 2.34 1.87 1.95
Best day 0.98% 2.13% 3.34% 4.02% 4.37%
Worst day -0.43% -0.82% -1.60% -2.88% -3.32%
Positive days 4 5 6 6 6
Negative days 26 25 24 24 24
Round trips 418 402 398 398 398
Winning / losing trades 44 / 374 37 / 365 36 / 362 58 / 340 59 / 339
Trades per day 13.93 13.40 13.27 13.27 13.27
Win rate 10.53% 9.20% 9.05% 14.57% 14.82%
Profit factor 0.67 0.69 0.73 0.67 0.67
Payoff ratio 5.68 6.85 7.34 3.95 3.84
Expectancy -0.0520 -0.0889 -0.1815 -0.3595 -0.3938
Average win 0.9946 2.1896 5.4149 5.1007 5.3678
Average loss 0.1751 0.3199 0.7380 1.2909 1.3966
Average trade -0.0520 -0.0889 -0.1815 -0.3595 -0.3938
Max win streak 3 2 2 3 3
Max loss streak 27 40 41 23 23
Time in market 44.88% 44.96% 44.96% 44.96% 44.96%
Turnover 0.11 0.20 0.46 0.73 0.79
Realised P&L -21.72 -35.74 -72.23 -143.07 -156.75
Unrealised P&L 0.02 0.00 -0.34 0.05 0.01
Fees paid 25.69 45.21 98.22 158.00 170.25
Fee drag 2.57% 4.52% 9.82% 15.80% 17.02%
Final equity 978.30 964.27 927.42 856.99 843.26

Every number on this page is read from the run record that produced it — the audit pipeline writes the page and the record together, so the two cannot drift apart.

With the break-even guard PASS

Exits: no exit below average entry plus fees, stops included

The metric set the portfolio dashboard reports, computed per cell so a backtested configuration and a running one read on the same axes. Portfolio-level measures (concentration, pairwise correlation, beta against a benchmark) are omitted: one strategy on one pair has no cross-sectional structure to measure, and printing a null would imply the number exists.

1m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 1.84% 3.35% 6.20% 10.35% 12.64%
CAGR 24.78% 49.32% 107.82% 231.43% 325.47%
Buy and hold 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88%
Edge vs B&H -20.05% -18.53% -15.69% -11.53% -9.24%
Volatility (ann.) 5.97% 10.75% 27.86% 29.02% 33.37%
Sharpe 3.74 3.78 2.77 4.27 4.51
Sortino 4.18 4.01 2.74 4.27 4.49
Calmar 21.50 20.70 18.40 36.42 47.25
Omega 1.02 1.02 1.01 1.02 1.02
Max drawdown 1.15% 2.38% 5.86% 6.35% 6.89%
Ulcer index 0.0043 0.0088 0.0256 0.0228 0.0252
Drawdown episodes 38 40 53 68 72
Longest underwater (days) 13.3 13.5 9.6 8.2 8.2
Recovery factor 1.59 1.41 1.06 1.63 1.83
VaR 95% -0.244% -0.505% -1.830% -1.466% -1.509%
VaR 99% -0.273% -0.566% -3.090% -1.523% -1.653%
CVaR 95% -0.259% -0.536% -2.460% -1.494% -1.581%
Skew 3.00 2.93 0.81 1.65 1.61
Excess kurtosis 10.62 10.28 1.35 2.81 2.31
Best day 1.50% 2.80% 4.50% 5.29% 5.74%
Worst day -0.27% -0.57% -3.09% -1.52% -1.65%
Positive days 15 15 16 16 17
Negative days 15 15 14 14 13
Round trips 48 41 37 50 49
Winning / losing trades 48 / 0 41 / 0 37 / 0 50 / 0 49 / 0
Trades per day 1.60 1.37 1.23 1.67 1.63
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 0.5742 1.2954 3.0310 3.2035 3.8660
Average win 0.5742 1.2954 3.0310 3.2035 3.8660
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 0.5742 1.2954 3.0310 3.2035 3.8660
Max win streak 48 41 37 50 49
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 98.18% 98.21% 98.84% 98.16% 98.12%
Turnover 0.03 0.05 0.11 0.16 0.19
Realised P&L 27.56 53.11 112.15 160.17 189.44
Unrealised P&L -9.20 -19.61 -50.18 -56.68 -63.05
Fees paid 5.11 9.69 18.49 29.64 32.00
Fee drag 0.51% 0.97% 1.85% 2.96% 3.20%
Final equity 1018.36 1033.50 1061.97 1103.50 1126.39

3m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 3.10% 5.62% 10.48% 11.20% 12.73%
CAGR 44.93% 94.44% 236.34% 263.75% 329.89%
Buy and hold 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86%
Edge vs B&H -18.76% -16.24% -11.38% -10.66% -9.13%
Volatility (ann.) 5.01% 9.11% 21.42% 33.57% 36.28%
Sharpe 7.43 7.35 5.77 4.01 4.20
Sortino 8.38 8.06 6.03 4.01 4.21
Calmar 41.51 41.34 41.42 40.42 48.10
Omega 1.08 1.08 1.05 1.03 1.03
Max drawdown 1.08% 2.28% 5.71% 6.53% 6.86%
Ulcer index 0.0057 0.0123 0.0267 0.0320 0.0332
Drawdown episodes 34 36 40 48 51
Longest underwater (days) 21.7 21.7 21.7 21.7 18.0
Recovery factor 2.86 2.46 1.84 1.72 1.86
VaR 95% -0.259% -0.507% -1.584% -2.127% -2.129%
VaR 99% -0.424% -0.828% -2.551% -3.140% -3.407%
CVaR 95% -0.342% -0.668% -2.068% -2.633% -2.768%
Skew 2.90 2.73 1.88 1.41 1.47
Excess kurtosis 8.46 7.35 3.79 2.14 2.33
Best day 2.11% 3.59% 6.03% 7.02% 7.56%
Worst day -0.42% -0.83% -2.55% -3.14% -3.41%
Positive days 14 15 16 15 15
Negative days 15 14 13 14 14
Round trips 29 27 22 28 26
Winning / losing trades 29 / 0 27 / 0 22 / 0 28 / 0 26 / 0
Trades per day 0.97 0.90 0.73 0.93 0.87
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 1.2156 2.3598 6.0600 6.0528 7.3874
Average win 1.2156 2.3598 6.0600 6.0528 7.3874
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 1.2156 2.3598 6.0600 6.0528 7.3874
Max win streak 29 27 22 28 26
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 96.74% 96.83% 97.28% 97.29% 97.58%
Turnover 0.04 0.06 0.13 0.17 0.19
Realised P&L 35.25 63.71 133.32 169.48 192.07
Unrealised P&L -4.28 -7.55 -28.49 -57.52 -64.74
Fees paid 2.74 5.15 11.18 17.13 17.64
Fee drag 0.27% 0.52% 1.12% 1.71% 1.76%
Final equity 1030.97 1056.17 1104.83 1111.96 1127.34

5m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 1.50% 3.62% 9.17% 9.51% 11.03%
CAGR 19.83% 54.12% 190.79% 201.87% 257.19%
Buy and hold 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83%
Edge vs B&H -20.33% -18.21% -12.66% -12.32% -10.80%
Volatility (ann.) 5.10% 10.38% 22.03% 33.25% 38.09%
Sharpe 3.57 4.22 4.95 3.49 3.53
Sortino 3.80 4.50 5.30 3.57 3.62
Calmar 15.56 25.85 38.85 28.68 36.11
Omega 1.04 1.05 1.06 1.04 1.04
Max drawdown 1.27% 2.09% 4.91% 7.04% 7.12%
Ulcer index 0.0071 0.0110 0.0223 0.0338 0.0334
Drawdown episodes 21 23 27 34 35
Longest underwater (days) 21.7 21.7 21.7 21.7 13.3
Recovery factor 1.18 1.73 1.87 1.35 1.55
VaR 95% -0.253% -0.494% -1.544% -1.908% -2.075%
VaR 99% -0.433% -0.846% -2.605% -3.204% -3.477%
CVaR 95% -0.343% -0.670% -2.074% -2.556% -2.776%
Skew 2.23 2.18 1.63 1.37 1.35
Excess kurtosis 5.36 5.06 3.28 2.34 2.24
Best day 1.22% 2.56% 5.12% 6.21% 6.80%
Worst day -0.43% -0.85% -2.60% -3.20% -3.48%
Positive days 15 16 18 16 16
Negative days 15 14 12 14 14
Round trips 21 21 20 19 19
Winning / losing trades 21 / 0 21 / 0 20 / 0 19 / 0 19 / 0
Trades per day 0.70 0.70 0.67 0.63 0.63
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 1.0535 2.4101 6.1765 8.1677 9.3152
Average win 1.0535 2.4101 6.1765 8.1677 9.3152
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 1.0535 2.4101 6.1765 8.1677 9.3152
Max win streak 21 21 20 19 19
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 95.83% 95.27% 96.00% 95.75% 95.75%
Turnover 0.02 0.05 0.12 0.16 0.18
Realised P&L 22.12 50.61 123.53 155.19 176.99
Unrealised P&L -7.14 -14.42 -31.83 -60.13 -66.68
Fees paid 2.09 4.45 9.46 11.73 12.82
Fee drag 0.21% 0.44% 0.95% 1.17% 1.28%
Final equity 1014.98 1036.19 1091.70 1095.06 1110.31

Every number on this page is read from the run record that produced it — the audit pipeline writes the page and the record together, so the two cannot drift apart.

What the guard is, and what a better number under it means. The break-even guard refuses any exit below average entry plus fees. It cannot improve a strategy's judgement — it can only stop it selling at a loss, which means holding the position instead. Across the pack that turns a strategy that churned into one that buys and waits: trade counts collapse and time in market rises towards 100%. In a window where the asset itself rose, that reads as a much better return while being strictly less of a strategy.

So read the return next to round trips, time in market and edge vs buy and hold. The last of those is the one that matters: not one strategy in this matrix beat simply holding the asset, in either run.

Ignore the win rate and the profit factor under the guard. Both count closed trades only, and the guard closes nothing at a loss — in all 101 guarded runs the number of losing closed trades is exactly zero. So the win rate goes to 100% and the profit factor becomes undefined for arithmetic reasons, while the losses sit in the position that is still open. The unrealised row is where they went.