← Elder_Triple_Screen

Elder_Triple_Screen — metrics

Unguarded: WARN · 7 warnGuarded: WARN · 7 warnDirectionalgunbot-quant

BTCUSDT · 2026-08-13 01:50 → 2026-09-12 01:50 UTC (30 days) · 0.03% fee + 2 bps slippage · 1,000 quote, one figure for every cell

The same document for both runs of the same measurement — first as the strategy ships, then with the break-even guard. Everything else about the two runs is identical.

As it ships WARN · 7 warn

Exits: the strategy's own exits, stops included

The metric set the portfolio dashboard reports, computed per cell so a backtested configuration and a running one read on the same axes. Portfolio-level measures (concentration, pairwise correlation, beta against a benchmark) are omitted: one strategy on one pair has no cross-sectional structure to measure, and printing a null would imply the number exists.

1m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 0.00% 0.00% 0.90% -4.91% -36.73%
CAGR 0.00% 0.00% 11.54% -45.77% -99.62%
Buy and hold 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88%
Edge vs B&H -21.88% -21.88% -20.98% -26.79% -58.61%
Volatility (ann.) 0.00% 0.00% 5.05% 17.29% 30.57%
Sharpe 0.00 0.00 2.19 -3.45 -18.07
Sortino 0.00 0.00 2.11 -3.67 -18.48
Calmar 0.00 0.00 9.10 -3.54 -2.41
Omega 0.00 0.00 1.12 0.95 0.89
Max drawdown 0.00% 0.00% 1.27% 12.93% 41.36%
Ulcer index 0.0000 0.0000 0.0109 0.0713 0.2177
Drawdown episodes 0 0 21 31 33
Longest underwater (days) 0.0 0.0 23.2 21.7 21.7
Recovery factor 0.00 0.00 0.71 -0.38 -0.89
VaR 95% 0.000% 0.000% -0.055% -1.194% -4.617%
VaR 99% 0.000% 0.000% -0.065% -1.199% -4.632%
CVaR 95% 0.000% 0.000% -0.060% -1.197% -4.625%
Skew 0.00 0.00 4.89 3.75 1.38
Excess kurtosis 0.00 0.00 22.84 14.74 2.60
Best day 0.00% 0.00% 1.09% 7.07% 6.22%
Worst day 0.00% 0.00% -0.07% -1.20% -4.63%
Positive days 0 0 11 4 4
Negative days 0 0 15 26 26
Round trips 0 0 6 160 785
Winning / losing trades 0 / 0 0 / 0 1 / 5 11 / 149 53 / 732
Trades per day 0.00 0.00 0.20 5.33 26.17
Win rate 0.00% 0.00% 16.67% 6.88% 6.75%
Profit factor 0.00 0.00 5.91 0.74 0.48
Payoff ratio 0.00 0.00 29.55 10.04 6.60
Expectancy 0.0000 0.0000 1.5024 -0.3065 -0.4684
Average win 0.0000 0.0000 10.8503 12.7862 6.3462
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.3671 1.2731 0.9618
Average trade 0.0000 0.0000 1.5024 -0.3065 -0.4684
Max win streak 0 0 1 2 2
Max loss streak 0 0 3 36 70
Time in market 0.00% 0.00% 0.75% 14.12% 49.20%
Turnover 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.33 1.04
Realised P&L 0.00 0.00 9.01 -49.04 -367.66
Unrealised P&L 0.00 0.00 -0.00 -0.01 0.35
Fees paid 0.00 0.00 1.41 70.74 301.75
Fee drag 0.00% 0.00% 0.14% 7.07% 30.17%
Final equity 1000.00 1000.00 1009.01 950.94 632.69

3m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 0.00% 0.00% 2.33% -0.75% -8.98%
CAGR 0.00% 0.00% 32.34% -8.71% -68.16%
Buy and hold 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86%
Edge vs B&H -21.86% -21.86% -19.53% -22.61% -30.84%
Volatility (ann.) 0.00% 0.00% 4.23% 17.78% 30.98%
Sharpe 0.00 0.00 6.65 -0.42 -3.54
Sortino 0.00 0.00 11.69 -0.38 -3.59
Calmar 0.00 0.00 69.27 -0.77 -3.23
Omega 0.00 0.00 2.19 0.99 0.96
Max drawdown 0.00% 0.00% 0.47% 11.27% 21.08%
Ulcer index 0.0000 0.0000 0.0002 0.0700 0.1099
Drawdown episodes 0 0 65 34 46
Longest underwater (days) 0.0 0.0 7.6 21.7 21.7
Recovery factor 0.00 0.00 4.99 -0.07 -0.43
VaR 95% 0.000% 0.000% -0.000% -0.921% -2.601%
VaR 99% 0.000% 0.000% -0.000% -1.160% -2.691%
CVaR 95% 0.000% 0.000% -0.000% -1.041% -2.646%
Skew 0.00 0.00 4.84 4.31 2.19
Excess kurtosis 0.00 0.00 22.20 18.87 4.20
Best day 0.00% 0.00% 2.33% 7.91% 8.15%
Worst day 0.00% 0.00% -0.00% -1.16% -2.69%
Positive days 0 0 10 6 6
Negative days 0 0 12 22 23
Round trips 0 0 1 50 295
Winning / losing trades 0 / 0 0 / 0 1 / 0 3 / 47 19 / 276
Trades per day 0.00 0.00 0.03 1.67 9.83
Win rate 0.00% 0.00% 100.00% 6.00% 6.44%
Profit factor 0.00 0.00 ∞ 0.93 0.76
Payoff ratio 0.00 0.00 ∞ 14.58 11.09
Expectancy 0.0000 0.0000 23.2959 -0.1492 -0.3043
Average win 0.0000 0.0000 23.2959 33.3150 15.2233
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 2.2852 1.3732
Average trade 0.0000 0.0000 23.2959 -0.1492 -0.3043
Max win streak 0 0 1 1 1
Max loss streak 0 0 0 31 72
Time in market 0.00% 0.00% 0.69% 14.19% 51.73%
Turnover 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.21 0.67
Realised P&L 0.00 0.00 23.30 -7.46 -89.76
Unrealised P&L 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.00 -0.00
Fees paid 0.00 0.00 0.52 23.53 132.98
Fee drag 0.00% 0.00% 0.05% 2.35% 13.30%
Final equity 1000.00 1000.00 1023.30 992.54 910.24

5m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 0.00% 0.00% -0.39% 7.58% 5.13%
CAGR 0.00% 0.00% -4.65% 143.28% 83.85%
Buy and hold 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83%
Edge vs B&H -21.83% -21.83% -22.22% -14.25% -16.70%
Volatility (ann.) 0.00% 0.00% 1.60% 21.44% 32.39%
Sharpe 0.00 0.00 -2.96 4.25 2.04
Sortino 0.00 0.00 -1.85 3.93 2.18
Calmar 0.00 0.00 -7.62 25.19 7.32
Omega 0.00 0.00 0.63 1.11 1.03
Max drawdown 0.00% 0.00% 0.61% 5.69% 11.45%
Ulcer index 0.0000 0.0000 0.0047 0.0302 0.0568
Drawdown episodes 0 0 3 35 33
Longest underwater (days) 0.0 0.0 17.7 18.0 21.7
Recovery factor 0.00 0.00 -0.64 1.33 0.45
VaR 95% 0.000% 0.000% -0.000% -0.906% -2.031%
VaR 99% 0.000% 0.000% -0.391% -1.185% -2.799%
CVaR 95% 0.000% 0.000% -0.195% -1.046% -2.415%
Skew 0.00 0.00 -4.94 3.68 1.90
Excess kurtosis 0.00 0.00 23.20 14.29 3.07
Best day 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 8.18% 8.12%
Worst day 0.00% 0.00% -0.39% -1.19% -2.80%
Positive days 0 0 8 9 8
Negative days 0 0 10 17 22
Round trips 0 0 1 23 164
Winning / losing trades 0 / 0 0 / 0 0 / 1 3 / 20 12 / 152
Trades per day 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.77 5.47
Win rate 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 13.04% 7.32%
Profit factor 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.50 1.22
Payoff ratio 0.00 0.00 0.00 16.65 15.41
Expectancy 0.0000 0.0000 -3.9055 3.2959 0.3130
Average win 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 42.1427 24.0000
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 3.9055 2.5311 1.5571
Average trade 0.0000 0.0000 -3.9055 3.2959 0.3130
Max win streak 0 0 0 2 2
Max loss streak 0 0 1 16 33
Time in market 0.00% 0.00% 0.25% 16.95% 51.44%
Turnover 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.18 0.52
Realised P&L 0.00 0.00 -3.91 75.81 51.33
Unrealised P&L 0.00 0.00 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00
Fees paid 0.00 0.00 0.45 10.45 77.82
Fee drag 0.00% 0.00% 0.04% 1.05% 7.78%
Final equity 1000.00 1000.00 996.09 1075.81 1051.33

Every number on this page is read from the run record that produced it — the audit pipeline writes the page and the record together, so the two cannot drift apart.

With the break-even guard WARN · 7 warn

Exits: no exit below average entry plus fees, stops included

The metric set the portfolio dashboard reports, computed per cell so a backtested configuration and a running one read on the same axes. Portfolio-level measures (concentration, pairwise correlation, beta against a benchmark) are omitted: one strategy on one pair has no cross-sectional structure to measure, and printing a null would imply the number exists.

1m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 0.00% 0.00% 1.58% 7.35% 6.34%
CAGR 0.00% 0.00% 21.04% 137.07% 111.34%
Buy and hold 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88%
Edge vs B&H -21.88% -21.88% -20.30% -14.53% -15.54%
Volatility (ann.) 0.00% 0.00% 6.92% 20.52% 13.24%
Sharpe 0.00 0.00 2.79 4.31 5.72
Sortino 0.00 0.00 2.78 4.36 5.97
Calmar 0.00 0.00 13.26 29.71 37.97
Omega 0.00 0.00 1.07 1.02 1.03
Max drawdown 0.00% 0.00% 1.59% 4.61% 2.93%
Ulcer index 0.0000 0.0000 0.0090 0.0246 0.0162
Drawdown episodes 0 0 85 61 76
Longest underwater (days) 0.0 0.0 23.2 21.7 21.7
Recovery factor 0.00 0.00 1.00 1.59 2.16
VaR 95% 0.000% 0.000% -0.000% -1.168% -0.708%
VaR 99% 0.000% 0.000% -0.000% -1.990% -1.214%
CVaR 95% 0.000% 0.000% -0.000% -1.579% -0.961%
Skew 0.00 0.00 4.24 1.82 1.96
Excess kurtosis 0.00 0.00 17.85 4.68 4.42
Best day 0.00% 0.00% 1.09% 5.22% 3.51%
Worst day 0.00% 0.00% -0.00% -1.99% -1.21%
Positive days 0 0 17 15 15
Negative days 0 0 11 15 15
Round trips 0 0 5 12 13
Winning / losing trades 0 / 0 0 / 0 5 / 0 12 / 0 13 / 0
Trades per day 0.00 0.00 0.17 0.40 0.43
Win rate 0.00% 0.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor 0.00 0.00 ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio 0.00 0.00 ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 0.0000 0.0000 3.1640 8.8007 5.9758
Average win 0.0000 0.0000 3.1640 8.8007 5.9758
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 0.0000 0.0000 3.1640 8.8007 5.9758
Max win streak 0 0 5 12 13
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 0.00% 0.00% 6.88% 97.74% 99.31%
Turnover 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.11 0.08
Realised P&L 0.00 0.00 15.82 105.61 77.69
Unrealised P&L 0.00 0.00 -0.00 -32.08 -14.25
Fees paid 0.00 0.00 2.57 5.63 3.43
Fee drag 0.00% 0.00% 0.26% 0.56% 0.34%
Final equity 1000.00 1000.00 1015.82 1073.52 1063.44

3m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 0.00% 0.00% 2.33% 7.26% 7.93%
CAGR 0.00% 0.00% 32.34% 134.52% 153.07%
Buy and hold 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86%
Edge vs B&H -21.86% -21.86% -19.53% -14.60% -13.93%
Volatility (ann.) 0.00% 0.00% 4.23% 18.69% 13.57%
Sharpe 0.00 0.00 6.65 4.65 6.91
Sortino 0.00 0.00 11.69 4.56 7.16
Calmar 0.00 0.00 69.27 23.05 40.18
Omega 0.00 0.00 2.19 1.05 1.07
Max drawdown 0.00% 0.00% 0.47% 5.84% 3.81%
Ulcer index 0.0000 0.0000 0.0002 0.0307 0.0221
Drawdown episodes 0 0 65 68 65
Longest underwater (days) 0.0 0.0 7.6 21.7 21.7
Recovery factor 0.00 0.00 4.99 1.24 2.08
VaR 95% 0.000% 0.000% -0.000% -0.729% -0.571%
VaR 99% 0.000% 0.000% -0.000% -0.936% -0.710%
CVaR 95% 0.000% 0.000% -0.000% -0.833% -0.640%
Skew 0.00 0.00 4.84 3.01 2.80
Excess kurtosis 0.00 0.00 22.20 9.32 7.17
Best day 0.00% 0.00% 2.33% 5.56% 4.55%
Worst day 0.00% 0.00% -0.00% -0.94% -0.71%
Positive days 0 0 10 14 14
Negative days 0 0 12 15 15
Round trips 0 0 1 6 5
Winning / losing trades 0 / 0 0 / 0 1 / 0 6 / 0 5 / 0
Trades per day 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.20 0.17
Win rate 0.00% 0.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor 0.00 0.00 ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio 0.00 0.00 ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 0.0000 0.0000 23.2959 16.7854 19.1684
Average win 0.0000 0.0000 23.2959 16.7854 19.1684
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 0.0000 0.0000 23.2959 16.7854 19.1684
Max win streak 0 0 1 6 5
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 0.00% 0.00% 0.69% 89.69% 99.73%
Turnover 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.10 0.10
Realised P&L 0.00 0.00 23.30 100.71 95.84
Unrealised P&L 0.00 0.00 0.00 -28.15 -16.55
Fees paid 0.00 0.00 0.52 2.66 1.27
Fee drag 0.00% 0.00% 0.05% 0.27% 0.13%
Final equity 1000.00 1000.00 1023.30 1072.57 1079.30

5m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 0.00% 0.00% 0.31% 10.35% 7.88%
CAGR 0.00% 0.00% 3.82% 231.34% 151.60%
Buy and hold 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83%
Edge vs B&H -21.83% -21.83% -21.52% -11.48% -13.95%
Volatility (ann.) 0.00% 0.00% 17.13% 19.87% 15.32%
Sharpe 0.00 0.00 0.30 6.13 6.10
Sortino 0.00 0.00 0.24 6.44 6.34
Calmar 0.00 0.00 0.77 53.16 50.90
Omega 0.00 0.00 1.00 1.09 1.08
Max drawdown 0.00% 0.00% 4.95% 4.35% 2.98%
Ulcer index 0.0000 0.0000 0.0165 0.0222 0.0148
Drawdown episodes 0 0 7 47 46
Longest underwater (days) 0.0 0.0 15.0 21.7 21.7
Recovery factor 0.00 0.00 0.06 2.38 2.65
VaR 95% 0.000% 0.000% -1.757% -1.124% -0.644%
VaR 99% 0.000% 0.000% -2.956% -1.907% -1.018%
CVaR 95% 0.000% 0.000% -2.356% -1.515% -0.831%
Skew 0.00 0.00 0.14 2.02 2.39
Excess kurtosis 0.00 0.00 4.57 4.18 5.84
Best day 0.00% 0.00% 3.20% 5.49% 4.51%
Worst day 0.00% 0.00% -2.96% -1.91% -1.02%
Positive days 0 0 8 15 15
Negative days 0 0 10 15 15
Round trips 0 0 1 5 4
Winning / losing trades 0 / 0 0 / 0 1 / 0 5 / 0 4 / 0
Trades per day 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.17 0.13
Win rate 0.00% 0.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor 0.00 0.00 ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio 0.00 0.00 ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 0.0000 0.0000 3.0882 24.3134 23.8297
Average win 0.0000 0.0000 3.0882 24.3134 23.8297
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 0.0000 0.0000 3.0882 24.3134 23.8297
Max win streak 0 0 1 5 4
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 0.00% 0.00% 30.95% 81.97% 97.33%
Turnover 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.12 0.10
Realised P&L 0.00 0.00 3.09 121.57 95.32
Unrealised P&L 0.00 0.00 -0.00 -18.09 -16.53
Fees paid 0.00 0.00 0.51 2.27 1.07
Fee drag 0.00% 0.00% 0.05% 0.23% 0.11%
Final equity 1000.00 1000.00 1003.09 1103.47 1078.79

Every number on this page is read from the run record that produced it — the audit pipeline writes the page and the record together, so the two cannot drift apart.

What the guard is, and what a better number under it means. The break-even guard refuses any exit below average entry plus fees. It cannot improve a strategy's judgement — it can only stop it selling at a loss, which means holding the position instead. Across the pack that turns a strategy that churned into one that buys and waits: trade counts collapse and time in market rises towards 100%. In a window where the asset itself rose, that reads as a much better return while being strictly less of a strategy.

So read the return next to round trips, time in market and edge vs buy and hold. The last of those is the one that matters: not one strategy in this matrix beat simply holding the asset, in either run.

Ignore the win rate and the profit factor under the guard. Both count closed trades only, and the guard closes nothing at a loss — in all 101 guarded runs the number of losing closed trades is exactly zero. So the win rate goes to 100% and the profit factor becomes undefined for arithmetic reasons, while the losses sit in the position that is still open. The unrealised row is where they went.