← FILGrid_Donchian

FILGrid_Donchian — metrics

Unguarded: FAIL · 3 failGuarded: FAIL · 3 failFILGridgunbot-quant

BTCUSDT · 2026-08-13 01:50 → 2026-09-12 01:50 UTC (30 days) · 0.03% fee + 2 bps slippage · 1,000 quote, one figure for every cell

The same document for both runs of the same measurement — first as the strategy ships, then with the break-even guard. Everything else about the two runs is identical.

As it ships FAIL · 3 fail

Exits: the strategy's own exits, stops included

The metric set the portfolio dashboard reports, computed per cell so a backtested configuration and a running one read on the same axes. Portfolio-level measures (concentration, pairwise correlation, beta against a benchmark) are omitted: one strategy on one pair has no cross-sectional structure to measure, and printing a null would imply the number exists.

1m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 4.19% 8.06% 19.50% 24.92% 10.93%
CAGR 64.83% 156.83% 773.27% 1399.27% 253.24%
Buy and hold 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88%
Edge vs B&H -17.69% -13.82% -2.39% 3.04% -10.95%
Volatility (ann.) 5.70% 10.51% 19.60% 26.48% 21.80%
Sharpe 8.79 9.03 11.15 10.36 5.90
Sortino 10.45 10.42 12.77 10.72 5.85
Calmar 88.33 123.58 372.46 337.21 65.19
Omega 1.12 1.11 1.13 1.09 1.03
Max drawdown 0.73% 1.27% 2.08% 4.15% 3.88%
Ulcer index 0.0018 0.0032 0.0051 0.0094 0.0173
Drawdown episodes 63 68 108 115 127
Longest underwater (days) 22.7 22.4 8.2 18.0 8.2
Recovery factor 5.71 6.35 9.39 6.01 2.81
VaR 95% -0.012% -0.021% -0.025% -0.722% -1.196%
VaR 99% -0.270% -0.467% -0.810% -0.753% -2.037%
CVaR 95% -0.141% -0.244% -0.417% -0.738% -1.617%
Skew 4.06 3.69 3.14 2.54 1.35
Excess kurtosis 16.75 13.57 8.52 5.57 1.75
Best day 2.80% 4.84% 8.34% 7.76% 4.26%
Worst day -0.27% -0.47% -0.81% -0.75% -2.04%
Positive days 16 16 17 18 17
Negative days 14 14 13 12 13
Round trips 141 106 140 8 0
Winning / losing trades 141 / 0 106 / 0 140 / 0 8 / 0 0 / 0
Trades per day 4.70 3.53 4.67 0.27 0.00
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 0.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ 0.00
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ 0.00
Expectancy 0.2974 0.7605 1.3827 31.1491 0.0000
Average win 0.2974 0.7605 1.3827 31.1491 0.0000
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 0.2974 0.7605 1.3827 31.1491 0.0000
Max win streak 141 106 140 8 0
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 24.53% 25.52% 100.00% 40.08% 100.00%
Turnover 0.04 0.08 0.19 0.25 0.00
Realised P&L 41.93 80.61 193.58 249.19 0.00
Unrealised P&L 0.00 0.00 1.38 0.04 109.27
Fees paid 0.21 0.37 0.65 0.62 0.15
Fee drag 0.02% 0.04% 0.06% 0.06% 0.02%
Final equity 1041.93 1080.61 1194.96 1249.19 1109.02

3m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 4.13% 7.83% 20.32% 25.07% 10.89%
CAGR 63.55% 150.16% 849.23% 1421.21% 251.76%
Buy and hold 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86%
Edge vs B&H -17.73% -14.03% -1.54% 3.21% -10.97%
Volatility (ann.) 5.13% 9.49% 18.05% 25.10% 21.34%
Sharpe 9.62 9.71 12.55 10.97 6.00
Sortino 11.59 11.33 14.70 11.68 6.02
Calmar 89.18 121.78 436.75 343.07 67.18
Omega 1.19 1.19 1.22 1.15 1.05
Max drawdown 0.71% 1.23% 1.94% 4.14% 3.75%
Ulcer index 0.0023 0.0032 0.0079 0.0091 0.0170
Drawdown episodes 43 47 71 75 83
Longest underwater (days) 22.6 22.3 21.7 18.0 8.2
Recovery factor 5.79 6.35 10.45 6.05 2.91
VaR 95% -0.110% -0.187% -0.049% -0.713% -1.177%
VaR 99% -0.271% -0.469% -0.814% -0.757% -1.905%
CVaR 95% -0.190% -0.328% -0.432% -0.735% -1.541%
Skew 3.82 3.52 2.99 2.45 1.36
Excess kurtosis 14.78 12.20 7.65 5.11 1.62
Best day 2.71% 4.69% 8.08% 7.53% 4.27%
Worst day -0.27% -0.47% -0.81% -0.76% -1.91%
Positive days 15 15 15 17 16
Negative days 14 14 14 12 13
Round trips 141 106 140 8 0
Winning / losing trades 141 / 0 106 / 0 140 / 0 8 / 0 0 / 0
Trades per day 4.70 3.53 4.67 0.27 0.00
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 0.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ 0.00
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ 0.00
Expectancy 0.2926 0.7384 1.4437 31.3332 0.0000
Average win 0.2926 0.7384 1.4437 31.3332 0.0000
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 0.2926 0.7384 1.4437 31.3332 0.0000
Max win streak 141 106 140 8 0
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 25.17% 25.85% 100.00% 40.10% 100.00%
Turnover 0.04 0.08 0.20 0.25 0.00
Realised P&L 41.26 78.27 202.12 250.67 0.00
Unrealised P&L 0.00 0.00 1.05 0.04 108.88
Fees paid 0.21 0.37 0.65 0.63 0.15
Fee drag 0.02% 0.04% 0.07% 0.06% 0.02%
Final equity 1041.26 1078.27 1203.16 1250.67 1108.62

5m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 4.32% 9.81% 20.41% 25.66% 10.86%
CAGR 67.21% 212.09% 857.86% 1510.61% 250.60%
Buy and hold 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83%
Edge vs B&H -17.51% -12.02% -1.42% 3.83% -10.97%
Volatility (ann.) 5.40% 10.33% 19.50% 28.47% 21.72%
Sharpe 9.56 11.07 11.68 9.90 5.89
Sortino 12.53 14.22 14.48 10.83 6.07
Calmar 95.51 174.19 430.44 381.22 65.49
Omega 1.24 1.27 1.27 1.13 1.06
Max drawdown 0.70% 1.22% 1.99% 3.96% 3.83%
Ulcer index 0.0019 0.0030 0.0140 0.0138 0.0170
Drawdown episodes 36 47 53 61 61
Longest underwater (days) 22.6 21.7 21.7 8.2 8.2
Recovery factor 6.13 8.05 10.24 6.48 2.84
VaR 95% -0.095% -0.165% -0.218% -1.045% -1.147%
VaR 99% -0.264% -0.457% -0.792% -1.776% -1.945%
CVaR 95% -0.179% -0.311% -0.505% -1.411% -1.546%
Skew 3.76 3.17 3.02 2.12 1.38
Excess kurtosis 14.26 8.71 7.92 4.08 1.75
Best day 2.72% 4.69% 8.09% 7.53% 4.25%
Worst day -0.26% -0.46% -0.79% -1.78% -1.94%
Positive days 16 16 16 17 17
Negative days 14 14 14 13 13
Round trips 141 141 140 9 0
Winning / losing trades 141 / 0 141 / 0 140 / 0 9 / 0 0 / 0
Trades per day 4.70 4.70 4.67 0.30 0.00
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 0.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ 0.00
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ 0.00
Expectancy 0.3061 0.6954 1.4414 28.5078 0.0000
Average win 0.3061 0.6954 1.4414 28.5078 0.0000
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 0.3061 0.6954 1.4414 28.5078 0.0000
Max win streak 141 141 140 9 0
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 25.83% 27.66% 100.00% 72.75% 100.00%
Turnover 0.04 0.10 0.20 0.26 0.00
Realised P&L 43.16 98.06 201.79 256.57 0.00
Unrealised P&L 0.00 0.00 2.29 0.04 108.58
Fees paid 0.21 0.37 0.65 0.63 0.15
Fee drag 0.02% 0.04% 0.06% 0.06% 0.02%
Final equity 1043.16 1098.06 1204.07 1256.57 1108.33

Every number on this page is read from the run record that produced it — the audit pipeline writes the page and the record together, so the two cannot drift apart.

With the break-even guard FAIL · 3 fail

Exits: no exit below average entry plus fees, stops included

The metric set the portfolio dashboard reports, computed per cell so a backtested configuration and a running one read on the same axes. Portfolio-level measures (concentration, pairwise correlation, beta against a benchmark) are omitted: one strategy on one pair has no cross-sectional structure to measure, and printing a null would imply the number exists.

1m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 4.19% 8.06% 19.50% 24.92% 10.93%
CAGR 64.83% 156.83% 773.27% 1399.27% 253.24%
Buy and hold 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88%
Edge vs B&H -17.69% -13.82% -2.39% 3.04% -10.95%
Volatility (ann.) 5.70% 10.51% 19.60% 26.48% 21.80%
Sharpe 8.79 9.03 11.15 10.36 5.90
Sortino 10.45 10.42 12.77 10.72 5.85
Calmar 88.33 123.58 372.46 337.21 65.19
Omega 1.12 1.11 1.13 1.09 1.03
Max drawdown 0.73% 1.27% 2.08% 4.15% 3.88%
Ulcer index 0.0018 0.0032 0.0051 0.0094 0.0173
Drawdown episodes 63 68 108 115 127
Longest underwater (days) 22.7 22.4 8.2 18.0 8.2
Recovery factor 5.71 6.35 9.39 6.01 2.81
VaR 95% -0.012% -0.021% -0.025% -0.722% -1.196%
VaR 99% -0.270% -0.467% -0.810% -0.753% -2.037%
CVaR 95% -0.141% -0.244% -0.417% -0.738% -1.617%
Skew 4.06 3.69 3.14 2.54 1.35
Excess kurtosis 16.75 13.57 8.52 5.57 1.75
Best day 2.80% 4.84% 8.34% 7.76% 4.26%
Worst day -0.27% -0.47% -0.81% -0.75% -2.04%
Positive days 16 16 17 18 17
Negative days 14 14 13 12 13
Round trips 141 106 140 8 0
Winning / losing trades 141 / 0 106 / 0 140 / 0 8 / 0 0 / 0
Trades per day 4.70 3.53 4.67 0.27 0.00
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 0.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ 0.00
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ 0.00
Expectancy 0.2974 0.7605 1.3827 31.1491 0.0000
Average win 0.2974 0.7605 1.3827 31.1491 0.0000
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 0.2974 0.7605 1.3827 31.1491 0.0000
Max win streak 141 106 140 8 0
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 24.53% 25.52% 100.00% 40.08% 100.00%
Turnover 0.04 0.08 0.19 0.25 0.00
Realised P&L 41.93 80.61 193.58 249.19 0.00
Unrealised P&L 0.00 0.00 1.38 0.04 109.27
Fees paid 0.21 0.37 0.65 0.62 0.15
Fee drag 0.02% 0.04% 0.06% 0.06% 0.02%
Final equity 1041.93 1080.61 1194.96 1249.19 1109.02

3m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 4.13% 7.83% 20.32% 25.07% 10.89%
CAGR 63.55% 150.16% 849.23% 1421.21% 251.76%
Buy and hold 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86%
Edge vs B&H -17.73% -14.03% -1.54% 3.21% -10.97%
Volatility (ann.) 5.13% 9.49% 18.05% 25.10% 21.34%
Sharpe 9.62 9.71 12.55 10.97 6.00
Sortino 11.59 11.33 14.70 11.68 6.02
Calmar 89.18 121.78 436.75 343.07 67.18
Omega 1.19 1.19 1.22 1.15 1.05
Max drawdown 0.71% 1.23% 1.94% 4.14% 3.75%
Ulcer index 0.0023 0.0032 0.0079 0.0091 0.0170
Drawdown episodes 43 47 71 75 83
Longest underwater (days) 22.6 22.3 21.7 18.0 8.2
Recovery factor 5.79 6.35 10.45 6.05 2.91
VaR 95% -0.110% -0.187% -0.049% -0.713% -1.177%
VaR 99% -0.271% -0.469% -0.814% -0.757% -1.905%
CVaR 95% -0.190% -0.328% -0.432% -0.735% -1.541%
Skew 3.82 3.52 2.99 2.45 1.36
Excess kurtosis 14.78 12.20 7.65 5.11 1.62
Best day 2.71% 4.69% 8.08% 7.53% 4.27%
Worst day -0.27% -0.47% -0.81% -0.76% -1.91%
Positive days 15 15 15 17 16
Negative days 14 14 14 12 13
Round trips 141 106 140 8 0
Winning / losing trades 141 / 0 106 / 0 140 / 0 8 / 0 0 / 0
Trades per day 4.70 3.53 4.67 0.27 0.00
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 0.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ 0.00
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ 0.00
Expectancy 0.2926 0.7384 1.4437 31.3332 0.0000
Average win 0.2926 0.7384 1.4437 31.3332 0.0000
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 0.2926 0.7384 1.4437 31.3332 0.0000
Max win streak 141 106 140 8 0
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 25.17% 25.85% 100.00% 40.10% 100.00%
Turnover 0.04 0.08 0.20 0.25 0.00
Realised P&L 41.26 78.27 202.12 250.67 0.00
Unrealised P&L 0.00 0.00 1.05 0.04 108.88
Fees paid 0.21 0.37 0.65 0.63 0.15
Fee drag 0.02% 0.04% 0.07% 0.06% 0.02%
Final equity 1041.26 1078.27 1203.16 1250.67 1108.62

5m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 4.32% 9.81% 20.41% 25.66% 10.86%
CAGR 67.21% 212.09% 857.86% 1510.61% 250.60%
Buy and hold 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83%
Edge vs B&H -17.51% -12.02% -1.42% 3.83% -10.97%
Volatility (ann.) 5.40% 10.33% 19.50% 28.47% 21.72%
Sharpe 9.56 11.07 11.68 9.90 5.89
Sortino 12.53 14.22 14.48 10.83 6.07
Calmar 95.51 174.19 430.44 381.22 65.49
Omega 1.24 1.27 1.27 1.13 1.06
Max drawdown 0.70% 1.22% 1.99% 3.96% 3.83%
Ulcer index 0.0019 0.0030 0.0140 0.0138 0.0170
Drawdown episodes 36 47 53 61 61
Longest underwater (days) 22.6 21.7 21.7 8.2 8.2
Recovery factor 6.13 8.05 10.24 6.48 2.84
VaR 95% -0.095% -0.165% -0.218% -1.045% -1.147%
VaR 99% -0.264% -0.457% -0.792% -1.776% -1.945%
CVaR 95% -0.179% -0.311% -0.505% -1.411% -1.546%
Skew 3.76 3.17 3.02 2.12 1.38
Excess kurtosis 14.26 8.71 7.92 4.08 1.75
Best day 2.72% 4.69% 8.09% 7.53% 4.25%
Worst day -0.26% -0.46% -0.79% -1.78% -1.94%
Positive days 16 16 16 17 17
Negative days 14 14 14 13 13
Round trips 141 141 140 9 0
Winning / losing trades 141 / 0 141 / 0 140 / 0 9 / 0 0 / 0
Trades per day 4.70 4.70 4.67 0.30 0.00
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 0.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ 0.00
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ 0.00
Expectancy 0.3061 0.6954 1.4414 28.5078 0.0000
Average win 0.3061 0.6954 1.4414 28.5078 0.0000
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 0.3061 0.6954 1.4414 28.5078 0.0000
Max win streak 141 141 140 9 0
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 25.83% 27.66% 100.00% 72.75% 100.00%
Turnover 0.04 0.10 0.20 0.26 0.00
Realised P&L 43.16 98.06 201.79 256.57 0.00
Unrealised P&L 0.00 0.00 2.29 0.04 108.58
Fees paid 0.21 0.37 0.65 0.63 0.15
Fee drag 0.02% 0.04% 0.06% 0.06% 0.02%
Final equity 1043.16 1098.06 1204.07 1256.57 1108.33

Every number on this page is read from the run record that produced it — the audit pipeline writes the page and the record together, so the two cannot drift apart.

What the guard is, and what a better number under it means. The break-even guard refuses any exit below average entry plus fees. It cannot improve a strategy's judgement — it can only stop it selling at a loss, which means holding the position instead. Across the pack that turns a strategy that churned into one that buys and waits: trade counts collapse and time in market rises towards 100%. In a window where the asset itself rose, that reads as a much better return while being strictly less of a strategy.

So read the return next to round trips, time in market and edge vs buy and hold. The last of those is the one that matters: not one strategy in this matrix beat simply holding the asset, in either run.

Ignore the win rate and the profit factor under the guard. Both count closed trades only, and the guard closes nothing at a loss — in all 101 guarded runs the number of losing closed trades is exactly zero. So the win rate goes to 100% and the profit factor becomes undefined for arithmetic reasons, while the losses sit in the position that is still open. The unrealised row is where they went.