← FILGrid_Sigmoid

FILGrid_Sigmoid — metrics

Unguarded: WARN · 1 warnGuarded: WARN · 1 warnFILGridgunbot-quant

BTCUSDT · 2026-08-13 01:50 → 2026-09-12 01:50 UTC (30 days) · 0.03% fee + 2 bps slippage · 1,000 quote, one figure for every cell

The same document for both runs of the same measurement — first as the strategy ships, then with the break-even guard. Everything else about the two runs is identical.

As it ships WARN · 1 warn

Exits: the strategy's own exits, stops included

The metric set the portfolio dashboard reports, computed per cell so a backtested configuration and a running one read on the same axes. Portfolio-level measures (concentration, pairwise correlation, beta against a benchmark) are omitted: one strategy on one pair has no cross-sectional structure to measure, and printing a null would imply the number exists.

1m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 0.22% 0.40% 1.03% 2.16% 1.69%
CAGR 2.69% 4.99% 13.29% 29.76% 22.67%
Buy and hold 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88%
Edge vs B&H -21.66% -21.48% -20.85% -19.72% -20.19%
Volatility (ann.) 1.78% 3.08% 5.03% 7.08% 4.74%
Sharpe 1.50 1.60 2.51 3.72 4.33
Sortino 1.49 1.58 1.05 1.66 4.38
Calmar 5.06 5.59 10.08 20.02 20.31
Omega 1.02 1.02 1.03 1.04 1.04
Max drawdown 0.53% 0.89% 1.32% 1.49% 1.12%
Ulcer index 0.0012 0.0021 0.0027 0.0030 0.0027
Drawdown episodes 20 23 41 36 130
Longest underwater (days) 25.4 25.4 23.7 23.6 8.2
Recovery factor 0.41 0.45 0.78 1.46 1.52
VaR 95% -0.000% -0.012% 0.000% 0.000% -0.062%
VaR 99% -0.194% -0.335% -0.557% -0.600% -0.411%
CVaR 95% -0.097% -0.174% -0.023% -0.025% -0.237%
Skew 2.36 2.42 2.16 2.69 2.18
Excess kurtosis 13.10 13.13 11.26 9.96 6.11
Best day 0.33% 0.59% 0.98% 1.45% 0.81%
Worst day -0.19% -0.34% -0.56% -0.60% -0.41%
Positive days 17 15 6 6 17
Negative days 13 15 1 1 13
Round trips 126 243 299 19 5
Winning / losing trades 125 / 1 171 / 72 203 / 96 12 / 7 5 / 0
Trades per day 4.20 8.10 9.97 0.63 0.17
Win rate 99.21% 70.37% 67.89% 63.16% 100.00%
Profit factor 577.87 16.40 19.92 58.88 ∞
Payoff ratio 4.62 6.90 9.42 34.34 ∞
Expectancy 0.0173 0.0165 0.0345 1.1361 2.8107
Average win 0.0175 0.0250 0.0534 1.8299 2.8107
Average loss 0.0038 0.0036 0.0057 0.0533 0.0000
Average trade 0.0173 0.0165 0.0345 1.1361 2.8107
Max win streak 122 105 84 9 5
Max loss streak 1 31 33 7 0
Time in market 15.37% 16.17% 19.04% 20.70% 100.00%
Turnover 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.01
Realised P&L 2.18 4.01 10.30 21.59 14.05
Unrealised P&L 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.06 2.88
Fees paid 0.31 1.03 2.18 1.21 1.50
Fee drag 0.03% 0.10% 0.22% 0.12% 0.15%
Final equity 1002.18 1004.01 1010.30 1021.59 1016.68

3m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 0.22% 0.63% 1.14% 2.16% 1.67%
CAGR 2.67% 8.00% 14.80% 29.62% 22.32%
Buy and hold 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86%
Edge vs B&H -21.64% -21.23% -20.72% -19.70% -20.19%
Volatility (ann.) 1.82% 3.24% 5.45% 7.59% 4.91%
Sharpe 1.46 2.39 2.56 3.46 4.12
Sortino 1.45 2.41 1.18 1.68 4.32
Calmar 5.22 9.02 10.41 18.70 20.56
Omega 1.03 1.05 1.05 1.06 1.06
Max drawdown 0.51% 0.89% 1.42% 1.58% 1.09%
Ulcer index 0.0012 0.0020 0.0031 0.0034 0.0026
Drawdown episodes 18 24 23 24 83
Longest underwater (days) 25.4 24.5 23.5 24.5 8.2
Recovery factor 0.42 0.72 0.80 1.36 1.54
VaR 95% -0.017% -0.029% 0.000% 0.000% -0.058%
VaR 99% -0.194% -0.337% -0.583% -0.734% -0.413%
CVaR 95% -0.106% -0.183% -0.025% -0.032% -0.236%
Skew 2.83 2.81 2.26 2.07 2.05
Excess kurtosis 13.92 12.80 10.98 7.65 5.49
Best day 0.38% 0.71% 1.07% 1.42% 0.79%
Worst day -0.19% -0.34% -0.58% -0.73% -0.41%
Positive days 13 15 6 6 16
Negative days 16 14 1 1 13
Round trips 127 248 155 21 1
Winning / losing trades 94 / 33 208 / 40 147 / 8 17 / 4 1 / 0
Trades per day 4.23 8.27 5.17 0.70 0.03
Win rate 74.02% 83.87% 94.84% 80.95% 100.00%
Profit factor 28.24 43.38 159.36 33.95 ∞
Payoff ratio 9.91 8.34 8.67 7.99 ∞
Expectancy 0.0170 0.0251 0.0736 1.0235 13.4546
Average win 0.0238 0.0307 0.0781 1.3027 13.4546
Average loss 0.0024 0.0037 0.0090 0.1631 0.0000
Average trade 0.0170 0.0251 0.0736 1.0235 13.4546
Max win streak 61 70 121 12 1
Max loss streak 17 8 4 2 0
Time in market 16.47% 18.66% 20.31% 21.56% 100.00%
Turnover 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.01
Realised P&L 2.16 6.24 11.40 21.49 13.45
Unrealised P&L 0.01 0.11 0.01 0.06 3.24
Fees paid 0.31 1.05 1.13 1.34 0.30
Fee drag 0.03% 0.10% 0.11% 0.13% 0.03%
Final equity 1002.17 1006.34 1011.40 1021.49 1016.44

5m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 1.11% 2.01% 2.38% 5.00% 3.31%
CAGR 14.44% 27.34% 33.13% 81.07% 48.70%
Buy and hold 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83%
Edge vs B&H -20.71% -19.82% -19.45% -16.83% -18.51%
Volatility (ann.) 2.37% 4.09% 6.15% 8.12% 5.37%
Sharpe 5.71 5.93 4.68 7.35 7.41
Sortino 6.46 6.67 5.02 8.80 8.65
Calmar 28.58 31.26 22.33 53.92 45.44
Omega 1.13 1.11 1.10 1.17 1.13
Max drawdown 0.51% 0.87% 1.48% 1.50% 1.07%
Ulcer index 0.0012 0.0021 0.0034 0.0034 0.0026
Drawdown episodes 22 44 20 21 61
Longest underwater (days) 23.4 8.2 23.4 23.4 8.2
Recovery factor 2.21 2.29 1.60 3.33 3.09
VaR 95% -0.063% -0.110% -0.122% -0.000% -0.082%
VaR 99% -0.189% -0.328% -0.568% -0.625% -0.402%
CVaR 95% -0.126% -0.219% -0.345% -0.313% -0.242%
Skew 3.51 3.45 2.69 4.03 3.94
Excess kurtosis 13.07 12.75 7.87 16.75 16.15
Best day 0.83% 1.42% 1.52% 3.73% 2.33%
Worst day -0.19% -0.33% -0.57% -0.63% -0.40%
Positive days 16 16 16 17 17
Negative days 14 14 14 13 13
Round trips 115 80 67 8 2
Winning / losing trades 115 / 0 80 / 0 67 / 0 8 / 0 2 / 0
Trades per day 3.83 2.67 2.23 0.27 0.07
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 0.0969 0.2316 0.3551 6.2436 15.0467
Average win 0.0969 0.2316 0.3551 6.2436 15.0467
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 0.0969 0.2316 0.3551 6.2436 15.0467
Max win streak 115 80 67 8 2
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 22.16% 100.00% 22.02% 21.92% 100.00%
Turnover 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.05 0.03
Realised P&L 11.14 18.53 23.79 49.95 30.09
Unrealised P&L 0.00 1.53 0.01 0.06 3.04
Fees paid 0.28 0.34 0.49 0.48 0.60
Fee drag 0.03% 0.03% 0.05% 0.05% 0.06%
Final equity 1011.14 1020.06 1023.79 1049.95 1032.89

Every number on this page is read from the run record that produced it — the audit pipeline writes the page and the record together, so the two cannot drift apart.

With the break-even guard WARN · 1 warn

Exits: no exit below average entry plus fees, stops included

The metric set the portfolio dashboard reports, computed per cell so a backtested configuration and a running one read on the same axes. Portfolio-level measures (concentration, pairwise correlation, beta against a benchmark) are omitted: one strategy on one pair has no cross-sectional structure to measure, and printing a null would imply the number exists.

1m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 0.22% 0.45% 1.09% 2.21% 1.69%
CAGR 2.69% 5.60% 14.06% 30.45% 22.67%
Buy and hold 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88%
Edge vs B&H -21.66% -21.43% -20.79% -19.67% -20.19%
Volatility (ann.) 1.78% 3.08% 5.04% 7.08% 4.74%
Sharpe 1.51 1.78 2.64 3.79 4.33
Sortino 0.56 0.72 1.11 1.70 4.38
Calmar 5.07 6.27 10.66 20.49 20.31
Omega 1.02 1.02 1.03 1.04 1.04
Max drawdown 0.53% 0.89% 1.32% 1.49% 1.12%
Ulcer index 0.0012 0.0020 0.0027 0.0029 0.0027
Drawdown episodes 20 23 45 37 130
Longest underwater (days) 25.4 25.4 23.8 23.6 8.2
Recovery factor 0.41 0.50 0.82 1.49 1.52
VaR 95% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% -0.062%
VaR 99% -0.194% -0.335% -0.557% -0.600% -0.411%
CVaR 95% -0.007% -0.014% -0.023% -0.025% -0.237%
Skew 2.37 2.44 2.29 2.66 2.18
Excess kurtosis 13.10 13.17 11.59 9.58 6.11
Best day 0.33% 0.59% 1.02% 1.45% 0.81%
Worst day -0.19% -0.34% -0.56% -0.60% -0.41%
Positive days 4 6 6 6 17
Negative days 1 1 1 1 13
Round trips 125 202 220 17 5
Winning / losing trades 125 / 0 202 / 0 220 / 0 17 / 0 5 / 0
Trades per day 4.17 6.73 7.33 0.57 0.17
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 0.0175 0.0222 0.0494 1.2959 2.8107
Average win 0.0175 0.0222 0.0494 1.2959 2.8107
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 0.0175 0.0222 0.0494 1.2959 2.8107
Max win streak 125 202 220 17 5
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 15.37% 16.42% 19.32% 20.82% 100.00%
Turnover 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.01
Realised P&L 2.18 4.49 10.86 22.03 14.05
Unrealised P&L 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.06 2.88
Fees paid 0.30 0.86 1.78 1.07 1.50
Fee drag 0.03% 0.09% 0.18% 0.11% 0.15%
Final equity 1002.18 1004.49 1010.86 1022.03 1016.68

3m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 0.23% 0.52% 0.90% 2.20% 1.67%
CAGR 2.90% 6.55% 11.49% 30.38% 22.32%
Buy and hold 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86%
Edge vs B&H -21.63% -21.34% -20.96% -19.66% -20.19%
Volatility (ann.) 1.82% 3.22% 5.31% 7.59% 4.91%
Sharpe 1.58 1.99 2.07 3.53 4.12
Sortino 0.66 0.86 0.95 1.71 4.32
Calmar 5.65 7.39 7.61 19.18 20.56
Omega 1.03 1.04 1.04 1.06 1.06
Max drawdown 0.51% 0.89% 1.51% 1.58% 1.09%
Ulcer index 0.0012 0.0020 0.0034 0.0033 0.0026
Drawdown episodes 24 24 17 24 83
Longest underwater (days) 23.8 23.7 23.5 24.5 8.2
Recovery factor 0.46 0.59 0.59 1.39 1.54
VaR 95% -0.017% -0.029% -0.106% 0.000% -0.058%
VaR 99% -0.194% -0.337% -0.583% -0.734% -0.413%
CVaR 95% -0.106% -0.183% -0.344% -0.032% -0.236%
Skew 2.80 3.04 1.99 2.04 2.05
Excess kurtosis 13.82 14.39 10.01 7.46 5.49
Best day 0.38% 0.72% 0.99% 1.42% 0.79%
Worst day -0.19% -0.34% -0.58% -0.73% -0.41%
Positive days 5 5 5 6 16
Negative days 2 2 2 1 13
Round trips 110 189 116 15 1
Winning / losing trades 110 / 0 189 / 0 116 / 0 15 / 0 1 / 0
Trades per day 3.67 6.30 3.87 0.50 0.03
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 0.0213 0.0277 0.0773 1.4658 13.4546
Average win 0.0213 0.0277 0.0773 1.4658 13.4546
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 0.0213 0.0277 0.0773 1.4658 13.4546
Max win streak 110 189 116 15 1
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 16.72% 18.85% 20.35% 21.63% 100.00%
Turnover 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.01
Realised P&L 2.35 5.23 8.97 21.99 13.45
Unrealised P&L 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.06 3.24
Fees paid 0.28 0.94 1.67 1.07 0.30
Fee drag 0.03% 0.09% 0.17% 0.11% 0.03%
Final equity 1002.35 1005.23 1008.97 1021.99 1016.44

5m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 1.11% 2.01% 2.38% 5.00% 3.31%
CAGR 14.44% 27.34% 33.13% 81.07% 48.70%
Buy and hold 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83%
Edge vs B&H -20.71% -19.82% -19.45% -16.83% -18.51%
Volatility (ann.) 2.37% 4.09% 6.15% 8.12% 5.37%
Sharpe 5.71 5.93 4.68 7.35 7.41
Sortino 6.46 6.67 5.02 8.80 8.65
Calmar 28.58 31.26 22.33 53.92 45.44
Omega 1.13 1.11 1.10 1.17 1.13
Max drawdown 0.51% 0.87% 1.48% 1.50% 1.07%
Ulcer index 0.0012 0.0021 0.0034 0.0034 0.0026
Drawdown episodes 22 44 20 21 61
Longest underwater (days) 23.4 8.2 23.4 23.4 8.2
Recovery factor 2.21 2.29 1.60 3.33 3.09
VaR 95% -0.063% -0.110% -0.122% -0.000% -0.082%
VaR 99% -0.189% -0.328% -0.568% -0.625% -0.402%
CVaR 95% -0.126% -0.219% -0.345% -0.313% -0.242%
Skew 3.51 3.45 2.69 4.03 3.94
Excess kurtosis 13.07 12.75 7.87 16.75 16.15
Best day 0.83% 1.42% 1.52% 3.73% 2.33%
Worst day -0.19% -0.33% -0.57% -0.63% -0.40%
Positive days 16 16 16 17 17
Negative days 14 14 14 13 13
Round trips 115 80 67 8 2
Winning / losing trades 115 / 0 80 / 0 67 / 0 8 / 0 2 / 0
Trades per day 3.83 2.67 2.23 0.27 0.07
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 0.0969 0.2316 0.3551 6.2436 15.0467
Average win 0.0969 0.2316 0.3551 6.2436 15.0467
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 0.0969 0.2316 0.3551 6.2436 15.0467
Max win streak 115 80 67 8 2
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 22.16% 100.00% 22.02% 21.92% 100.00%
Turnover 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.05 0.03
Realised P&L 11.14 18.53 23.79 49.95 30.09
Unrealised P&L 0.00 1.53 0.01 0.06 3.04
Fees paid 0.28 0.34 0.49 0.48 0.60
Fee drag 0.03% 0.03% 0.05% 0.05% 0.06%
Final equity 1011.14 1020.06 1023.79 1049.95 1032.89

Every number on this page is read from the run record that produced it — the audit pipeline writes the page and the record together, so the two cannot drift apart.

What the guard is, and what a better number under it means. The break-even guard refuses any exit below average entry plus fees. It cannot improve a strategy's judgement — it can only stop it selling at a loss, which means holding the position instead. Across the pack that turns a strategy that churned into one that buys and waits: trade counts collapse and time in market rises towards 100%. In a window where the asset itself rose, that reads as a much better return while being strictly less of a strategy.

So read the return next to round trips, time in market and edge vs buy and hold. The last of those is the one that matters: not one strategy in this matrix beat simply holding the asset, in either run.

Ignore the win rate and the profit factor under the guard. Both count closed trades only, and the guard closes nothing at a loss — in all 101 guarded runs the number of losing closed trades is exactly zero. So the win rate goes to 100% and the profit factor becomes undefined for arithmetic reasons, while the losses sit in the position that is still open. The unrealised row is where they went.