← Faber_TAA

Faber_TAA — metrics

Unguarded: PASSGuarded: PASSDirectionalgunbot-quant

BTCUSDT · 2026-08-13 01:50 → 2026-09-12 01:50 UTC (30 days) · 0.03% fee + 2 bps slippage · 1,000 quote, one figure for every cell

The same document for both runs of the same measurement — first as the strategy ships, then with the break-even guard. Everything else about the two runs is identical.

As it ships PASS

Exits: the strategy's own exits, stops included

The metric set the portfolio dashboard reports, computed per cell so a backtested configuration and a running one read on the same axes. Portfolio-level measures (concentration, pairwise correlation, beta against a benchmark) are omitted: one strategy on one pair has no cross-sectional structure to measure, and printing a null would imply the number exists.

1m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return -16.58% -25.87% -44.67% -61.05% -63.92%
CAGR -88.98% -97.38% -99.93% -100.00% -100.00%
Buy and hold 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88%
Edge vs B&H -38.46% -47.75% -66.55% -82.93% -85.80%
Volatility (ann.) 6.37% 12.32% 22.49% 27.67% 30.20%
Sharpe -34.59 -29.51 -31.90 -41.32 -40.92
Sortino -37.79 -31.28 -33.24 -41.98 -41.53
Calmar -5.37 -3.76 -2.24 -1.64 -1.56
Omega 0.74 0.79 0.80 0.77 0.77
Max drawdown 16.58% 25.87% 44.68% 61.05% 63.93%
Ulcer index 0.0918 0.1421 0.2498 0.3592 0.3777
Drawdown episodes 1 1 2 2 2
Longest underwater (days) 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.9 29.9
Recovery factor -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00
VaR 95% -0.930% -1.623% -3.374% -5.057% -5.495%
VaR 99% -1.038% -1.705% -3.733% -5.603% -6.016%
CVaR 95% -0.984% -1.664% -3.554% -5.330% -5.755%
Skew 3.10 2.21 1.83 1.58 1.61
Excess kurtosis 10.79 4.53 3.38 2.63 2.67
Best day 1.35% 1.90% 3.14% 3.14% 3.52%
Worst day -1.04% -1.70% -3.73% -5.60% -6.02%
Positive days 2 3 2 2 2
Negative days 28 27 28 28 28
Round trips 1,887 1,647 1,505 1,487 1,487
Winning / losing trades 112 / 1,775 84 / 1,563 108 / 1,397 136 / 1,351 138 / 1,349
Trades per day 62.90 54.90 50.17 49.57 49.57
Win rate 5.94% 5.10% 7.18% 9.15% 9.28%
Profit factor 0.28 0.31 0.37 0.35 0.35
Payoff ratio 4.39 5.79 4.78 3.46 3.45
Expectancy -0.0879 -0.1571 -0.2968 -0.4105 -0.4299
Average win 0.5672 1.3900 2.4207 2.4012 2.5282
Average loss 0.1292 0.2402 0.5069 0.6936 0.7325
Average trade -0.0879 -0.1571 -0.2968 -0.4105 -0.4299
Max win streak 3 2 2 2 2
Max loss streak 122 119 65 65 65
Time in market 51.33% 51.37% 51.38% 51.38% 51.38%
Turnover 0.29 0.49 0.97 1.26 1.34
Realised P&L -165.82 -258.72 -446.67 -610.46 -639.20
Unrealised P&L -0.00 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00
Fees paid 118.84 186.71 316.17 426.32 447.71
Fee drag 11.88% 18.67% 31.62% 42.63% 44.77%
Final equity 834.18 741.28 553.33 389.54 360.80

3m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return -3.45% -6.87% -12.54% -24.72% -26.26%
CAGR -34.75% -57.93% -80.43% -96.84% -97.55%
Buy and hold 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86%
Edge vs B&H -25.31% -28.73% -34.40% -46.58% -48.12%
Volatility (ann.) 5.92% 11.55% 21.56% 26.21% 28.82%
Sharpe -7.18 -7.44 -7.46 -13.05 -12.72
Sortino -7.92 -8.00 -8.20 -13.84 -13.36
Calmar -6.45 -5.45 -4.14 -3.33 -3.14
Omega 0.90 0.91 0.92 0.87 0.87
Max drawdown 5.39% 10.63% 19.44% 29.12% 31.07%
Ulcer index 0.0297 0.0583 0.0985 0.1493 0.1573
Drawdown episodes 21 24 32 22 23
Longest underwater (days) 21.7 21.7 21.7 21.7 21.7
Recovery factor -0.64 -0.65 -0.65 -0.85 -0.85
VaR 95% -0.412% -0.786% -2.037% -3.201% -3.595%
VaR 99% -0.508% -0.917% -2.478% -3.470% -3.608%
CVaR 95% -0.460% -0.851% -2.257% -3.335% -3.602%
Skew 2.22 2.33 1.71 1.37 1.35
Excess kurtosis 3.80 4.15 2.51 1.68 1.67
Best day 1.23% 2.52% 3.92% 3.69% 4.21%
Worst day -0.51% -0.92% -2.48% -3.47% -3.61%
Positive days 4 3 6 3 4
Negative days 25 26 23 26 25
Round trips 643 590 555 555 555
Winning / losing trades 47 / 596 31 / 559 37 / 518 57 / 498 58 / 497
Trades per day 21.43 19.67 18.50 18.50 18.50
Win rate 7.31% 5.25% 6.67% 10.27% 10.45%
Profit factor 0.64 0.60 0.66 0.56 0.56
Payoff ratio 8.18 10.91 9.27 4.86 4.82
Expectancy -0.0537 -0.1166 -0.2260 -0.4461 -0.4738
Average win 1.3350 3.3977 6.6448 5.4482 5.8342
Average loss 0.1632 0.3115 0.7168 1.1208 1.2100
Average trade -0.0537 -0.1166 -0.2260 -0.4461 -0.4738
Max win streak 2 1 2 3 3
Max loss streak 57 77 55 51 51
Time in market 52.33% 52.34% 52.35% 52.35% 52.35%
Turnover 0.16 0.28 0.62 0.87 0.94
Realised P&L -34.54 -68.79 -125.45 -247.60 -262.99
Unrealised P&L 0.07 0.10 0.00 0.36 0.35
Fees paid 41.17 69.08 133.19 205.28 220.33
Fee drag 4.12% 6.91% 13.32% 20.53% 22.03%
Final equity 965.52 931.31 874.56 752.77 737.36

5m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return -1.86% -2.61% -3.21% -10.45% -10.52%
CAGR -20.38% -27.49% -32.77% -73.90% -74.14%
Buy and hold 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83%
Edge vs B&H -23.68% -24.44% -25.04% -32.28% -32.35%
Volatility (ann.) 5.96% 12.03% 22.86% 27.73% 30.28%
Sharpe -3.79 -2.61 -1.62 -4.71 -4.31
Sortino -3.91 -2.88 -1.82 -5.10 -4.66
Calmar -5.29 -4.09 -2.61 -3.92 -3.72
Omega 0.93 0.95 0.97 0.94 0.94
Max drawdown 3.85% 6.72% 12.55% 18.87% 19.93%
Ulcer index 0.0220 0.0369 0.0610 0.0983 0.1033
Drawdown episodes 18 18 27 26 27
Longest underwater (days) 21.7 21.7 21.7 21.7 21.7
Recovery factor -0.48 -0.39 -0.26 -0.55 -0.53
VaR 95% -0.283% -0.611% -1.368% -2.035% -2.187%
VaR 99% -0.319% -0.657% -1.749% -2.155% -2.498%
CVaR 95% -0.301% -0.634% -1.558% -2.095% -2.342%
Skew 2.17 2.27 1.88 1.76 1.73
Excess kurtosis 3.40 4.08 3.01 2.61 2.54
Best day 0.94% 2.29% 5.31% 5.87% 6.45%
Worst day -0.32% -0.66% -1.75% -2.16% -2.50%
Positive days 4 7 8 7 7
Negative days 26 23 22 23 23
Round trips 354 319 304 304 304
Winning / losing trades 31 / 323 19 / 300 22 / 282 30 / 274 31 / 273
Trades per day 11.80 10.63 10.13 10.13 10.13
Win rate 8.76% 5.96% 7.24% 9.87% 10.20%
Profit factor 0.70 0.77 0.88 0.73 0.75
Payoff ratio 7.31 12.10 11.23 6.71 6.62
Expectancy -0.0524 -0.0817 -0.1055 -0.3417 -0.3440
Average win 1.4075 4.4992 10.3169 9.5840 10.1953
Average loss 0.1925 0.3718 0.9186 1.4285 1.5407
Average trade -0.0524 -0.0817 -0.1055 -0.3417 -0.3440
Max win streak 2 3 2 2 2
Max loss streak 43 87 78 62 62
Time in market 52.55% 52.57% 52.57% 52.57% 52.57%
Turnover 0.11 0.20 0.49 0.68 0.74
Realised P&L -18.54 -26.05 -32.07 -103.88 -104.57
Unrealised P&L -0.01 -0.02 -0.03 -0.61 -0.61
Fees paid 23.06 38.70 78.26 123.47 132.41
Fee drag 2.31% 3.87% 7.83% 12.35% 13.24%
Final equity 981.41 973.86 967.77 895.26 894.57

Every number on this page is read from the run record that produced it — the audit pipeline writes the page and the record together, so the two cannot drift apart.

With the break-even guard PASS

Exits: no exit below average entry plus fees, stops included

The metric set the portfolio dashboard reports, computed per cell so a backtested configuration and a running one read on the same axes. Portfolio-level measures (concentration, pairwise correlation, beta against a benchmark) are omitted: one strategy on one pair has no cross-sectional structure to measure, and printing a null would imply the number exists.

1m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 3.01% 5.95% 9.78% 13.28% 14.06%
CAGR 43.41% 102.04% 211.05% 355.93% 395.64%
Buy and hold 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88%
Edge vs B&H -18.87% -15.93% -12.11% -8.60% -7.82%
Volatility (ann.) 8.00% 15.01% 31.57% 36.24% 39.31%
Sharpe 4.55 4.76 3.75 4.37 4.27
Sortino 4.87 4.95 3.73 4.34 4.24
Calmar 26.08 29.15 34.84 56.02 57.44
Omega 1.03 1.02 1.02 1.02 1.02
Max drawdown 1.66% 3.50% 6.06% 6.35% 6.89%
Ulcer index 0.0089 0.0182 0.0289 0.0303 0.0329
Drawdown episodes 48 66 73 83 81
Longest underwater (days) 21.7 21.7 18.0 9.7 9.7
Recovery factor 1.81 1.70 1.61 2.09 2.04
VaR 95% -0.440% -0.948% -1.830% -1.990% -2.164%
VaR 99% -0.757% -1.620% -3.091% -3.354% -3.638%
CVaR 95% -0.598% -1.284% -2.461% -2.672% -2.901%
Skew 2.36 2.00 1.49 1.49 1.48
Excess kurtosis 6.30 4.46 2.72 2.54 2.57
Best day 2.28% 3.91% 6.57% 7.47% 8.13%
Worst day -0.76% -1.62% -3.09% -3.35% -3.64%
Positive days 15 15 16 16 16
Negative days 15 15 14 14 14
Round trips 26 23 25 29 30
Winning / losing trades 26 / 0 23 / 0 25 / 0 29 / 0 30 / 0
Trades per day 0.87 0.77 0.83 0.97 1.00
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 1.5176 3.4688 6.0241 6.5743 6.8030
Average win 1.5176 3.4688 6.0241 6.5743 6.8030
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 1.5176 3.4688 6.0241 6.5743 6.8030
Max win streak 26 23 25 29 30
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 99.13% 99.17% 98.99% 98.97% 98.97%
Turnover 0.04 0.08 0.15 0.19 0.20
Realised P&L 39.46 79.78 150.60 190.66 204.09
Unrealised P&L -9.38 -20.27 -52.84 -57.85 -63.48
Fees paid 4.31 7.20 14.19 18.00 20.32
Fee drag 0.43% 0.72% 1.42% 1.80% 2.03%
Final equity 1030.08 1059.51 1097.76 1132.81 1140.61

3m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 2.72% 5.62% 9.49% 13.30% 14.57%
CAGR 38.61% 94.55% 201.39% 356.84% 423.28%
Buy and hold 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86%
Edge vs B&H -19.14% -16.24% -12.37% -8.56% -7.29%
Volatility (ann.) 6.90% 12.69% 30.23% 34.66% 36.06%
Sharpe 4.77 5.31 3.80 4.56 4.77
Sortino 4.94 5.56 3.82 4.58 4.82
Calmar 21.22 31.30 33.84 57.88 62.44
Omega 1.05 1.05 1.03 1.04 1.04
Max drawdown 1.82% 3.02% 5.95% 6.17% 6.78%
Ulcer index 0.0111 0.0165 0.0286 0.0296 0.0323
Drawdown episodes 38 38 45 56 56
Longest underwater (days) 21.7 21.7 18.0 9.7 18.0
Recovery factor 1.49 1.86 1.59 2.16 2.15
VaR 95% -0.346% -0.720% -1.800% -1.959% -2.129%
VaR 99% -0.567% -1.173% -2.893% -3.141% -3.407%
CVaR 95% -0.457% -0.947% -2.347% -2.550% -2.768%
Skew 2.18 1.97 1.23 1.29 1.40
Excess kurtosis 4.66 4.12 1.57 1.54 1.92
Best day 1.59% 3.21% 5.52% 6.51% 7.15%
Worst day -0.57% -1.17% -2.89% -3.14% -3.41%
Positive days 14 15 15 15 15
Negative days 15 14 14 14 14
Round trips 17 17 17 19 20
Winning / losing trades 17 / 0 17 / 0 17 / 0 19 / 0 20 / 0
Trades per day 0.57 0.57 0.57 0.63 0.67
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 1.9994 4.1179 8.6502 10.0075 10.4366
Average win 1.9994 4.1179 8.6502 10.0075 10.4366
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 1.9994 4.1179 8.6502 10.0075 10.4366
Max win streak 17 17 17 19 20
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 99.33% 99.33% 99.45% 98.99% 98.76%
Turnover 0.03 0.07 0.15 0.19 0.21
Realised P&L 33.99 70.00 147.05 190.14 208.73
Unrealised P&L -6.79 -13.78 -52.15 -57.16 -63.03
Fees paid 2.50 4.65 9.22 11.83 13.67
Fee drag 0.25% 0.47% 0.92% 1.18% 1.37%
Final equity 1027.20 1056.22 1094.91 1132.98 1145.70

5m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 2.80% 7.10% 14.88% 17.58% 19.07%
CAGR 39.86% 130.49% 440.48% 617.37% 736.13%
Buy and hold 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83%
Edge vs B&H -19.03% -14.72% -6.95% -4.25% -2.76%
Volatility (ann.) 6.53% 12.12% 24.41% 31.20% 33.69%
Sharpe 5.17 6.95 7.03 6.47 6.47
Sortino 5.48 7.75 7.72 6.93 6.95
Calmar 28.26 54.28 88.43 109.67 120.43
Omega 1.07 1.10 1.08 1.07 1.07
Max drawdown 1.41% 2.40% 4.98% 5.63% 6.11%
Ulcer index 0.0088 0.0141 0.0215 0.0256 0.0273
Drawdown episodes 27 32 39 47 46
Longest underwater (days) 21.7 21.7 13.5 9.7 9.7
Recovery factor 1.98 2.96 2.99 3.12 3.12
VaR 95% -0.252% -0.494% -1.544% -1.908% -2.075%
VaR 99% -0.433% -0.846% -2.605% -3.204% -3.477%
CVaR 95% -0.343% -0.670% -2.074% -2.556% -2.776%
Skew 2.50 2.07 1.59 1.44 1.41
Excess kurtosis 6.43 3.96 2.69 2.06 1.97
Best day 1.58% 2.91% 5.43% 6.75% 6.99%
Worst day -0.43% -0.85% -2.60% -3.20% -3.48%
Positive days 16 16 17 17 17
Negative days 14 14 13 13 13
Round trips 13 12 12 12 13
Winning / losing trades 13 / 0 12 / 0 12 / 0 12 / 0 13 / 0
Trades per day 0.43 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.43
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 2.4840 6.5674 13.6177 17.1832 17.0370
Average win 2.4840 6.5674 13.6177 17.1832 17.0370
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 2.4840 6.5674 13.6177 17.1832 17.0370
Max win streak 13 12 12 12 13
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 98.04% 97.95% 98.19% 97.88% 97.87%
Turnover 0.03 0.08 0.16 0.21 0.22
Realised P&L 32.29 78.81 163.41 206.20 221.48
Unrealised P&L -4.34 -7.77 -14.67 -30.44 -30.83
Fees paid 2.09 3.70 6.71 7.50 8.84
Fee drag 0.21% 0.37% 0.67% 0.75% 0.88%
Final equity 1027.91 1070.97 1148.61 1175.51 1190.40

Every number on this page is read from the run record that produced it — the audit pipeline writes the page and the record together, so the two cannot drift apart.

What the guard is, and what a better number under it means. The break-even guard refuses any exit below average entry plus fees. It cannot improve a strategy's judgement — it can only stop it selling at a loss, which means holding the position instead. Across the pack that turns a strategy that churned into one that buys and waits: trade counts collapse and time in market rises towards 100%. In a window where the asset itself rose, that reads as a much better return while being strictly less of a strategy.

So read the return next to round trips, time in market and edge vs buy and hold. The last of those is the one that matters: not one strategy in this matrix beat simply holding the asset, in either run.

Ignore the win rate and the profit factor under the guard. Both count closed trades only, and the guard closes nothing at a loss — in all 101 guarded runs the number of losing closed trades is exactly zero. So the win rate goes to 100% and the profit factor becomes undefined for arithmetic reasons, while the losses sit in the position that is still open. The unrealised row is where they went.