← Fisher_Transform

Fisher_Transform — metrics

Unguarded: PASSGuarded: PASSDirectionalgunbot-quant

BTCUSDT · 2026-08-13 01:50 → 2026-09-12 01:50 UTC (30 days) · 0.03% fee + 2 bps slippage · 1,000 quote, one figure for every cell

The same document for both runs of the same measurement — first as the strategy ships, then with the break-even guard. Everything else about the two runs is identical.

As it ships PASS

Exits: the strategy's own exits, stops included

The metric set the portfolio dashboard reports, computed per cell so a backtested configuration and a running one read on the same axes. Portfolio-level measures (concentration, pairwise correlation, beta against a benchmark) are omitted: one strategy on one pair has no cross-sectional structure to measure, and printing a null would imply the number exists.

1m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return -8.63% -17.03% -31.02% -43.87% -46.22%
CAGR -66.65% -89.68% -98.91% -99.91% -99.95%
Buy and hold 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88%
Edge vs B&H -30.51% -38.91% -52.90% -65.76% -68.10%
Volatility (ann.) 3.18% 8.28% 20.53% 25.82% 28.27%
Sharpe -34.50 -27.38 -21.91 -27.08 -26.55
Sortino -22.83 -20.86 -21.27 -27.51 -27.57
Calmar -7.69 -5.26 -3.19 -2.28 -2.16
Omega 0.73 0.79 0.85 0.84 0.84
Max drawdown 8.67% 17.05% 31.02% 43.87% 46.26%
Ulcer index 0.0484 0.1006 0.1725 0.2474 0.2620
Drawdown episodes 1 1 1 1 2
Longest underwater (days) 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 29.9
Recovery factor -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00
VaR 95% -0.473% -0.974% -2.338% -3.395% -3.752%
VaR 99% -0.480% -1.066% -2.511% -4.502% -4.791%
CVaR 95% -0.476% -1.020% -2.424% -3.948% -4.272%
Skew 2.27 2.04 2.18 1.72 1.72
Excess kurtosis 5.91 4.11 4.46 3.01 3.12
Best day 0.30% 0.58% 3.34% 3.45% 3.84%
Worst day -0.48% -1.07% -2.51% -4.50% -4.79%
Positive days 2 2 3 3 3
Negative days 28 28 27 27 27
Round trips 891 891 891 891 891
Winning / losing trades 80 / 811 80 / 811 108 / 783 147 / 744 152 / 739
Trades per day 29.70 29.70 29.70 29.70 29.70
Win rate 8.98% 8.98% 12.12% 16.50% 17.06%
Profit factor 0.27 0.28 0.45 0.44 0.45
Payoff ratio 2.70 2.80 3.25 2.23 2.18
Expectancy -0.0969 -0.1911 -0.3481 -0.4924 -0.5187
Average win 0.3925 0.8105 2.3312 2.3548 2.4773
Average loss 0.1451 0.2899 0.7177 1.0550 1.1350
Average trade -0.0969 -0.1911 -0.3481 -0.4924 -0.5187
Max win streak 2 3 4 4 4
Max loss streak 73 65 34 33 29
Time in market 30.11% 38.78% 46.57% 49.56% 50.28%
Turnover 0.15 0.30 0.81 1.13 1.22
Realised P&L -86.29 -170.29 -310.17 -438.75 -462.19
Unrealised P&L 0.00 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00
Fees paid 61.56 117.28 242.72 324.12 345.54
Fee drag 6.16% 11.73% 24.27% 32.41% 34.55%
Final equity 913.71 829.71 689.83 561.25 537.81

3m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return -2.46% -0.58% -6.16% -10.03% -11.25%
CAGR -26.12% -6.86% -53.85% -72.35% -76.58%
Buy and hold 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86%
Edge vs B&H -24.32% -22.44% -28.02% -31.89% -33.11%
Volatility (ann.) 3.31% 9.76% 19.02% 23.83% 26.04%
Sharpe -9.13 -0.68 -3.97 -5.28 -5.44
Sortino -7.21 -0.65 -4.05 -5.67 -5.87
Calmar -10.51 -1.09 -3.64 -3.66 -3.58
Omega 0.87 0.99 0.95 0.94 0.94
Max drawdown 2.48% 6.27% 14.81% 19.78% 21.41%
Ulcer index 0.0140 0.0352 0.0745 0.0964 0.1050
Drawdown episodes 8 25 35 40 38
Longest underwater (days) 29.9 21.7 21.7 21.7 21.7
Recovery factor -0.99 -0.09 -0.42 -0.51 -0.53
VaR 95% -0.251% -0.520% -1.466% -2.041% -2.316%
VaR 99% -0.275% -0.664% -1.640% -2.395% -2.543%
CVaR 95% -0.263% -0.592% -1.553% -2.218% -2.430%
Skew 3.65 2.59 1.93 1.80 1.72
Excess kurtosis 14.72 6.66 3.49 3.20 2.86
Best day 0.98% 3.39% 5.06% 5.60% 6.09%
Worst day -0.28% -0.66% -1.64% -2.39% -2.54%
Positive days 4 5 7 7 7
Negative days 25 24 22 22 22
Round trips 295 295 295 295 295
Winning / losing trades 37 / 258 32 / 263 33 / 262 60 / 235 62 / 233
Trades per day 9.83 9.83 9.83 9.83 9.83
Win rate 12.54% 10.85% 11.19% 20.34% 21.02%
Profit factor 0.52 0.95 0.79 0.76 0.76
Payoff ratio 3.62 7.79 6.24 2.98 2.84
Expectancy -0.0833 -0.0197 -0.2087 -0.3399 -0.3812
Average win 0.7166 3.3112 6.8692 5.3267 5.6204
Average loss 0.1980 0.4250 1.1002 1.7867 1.9782
Average trade -0.0833 -0.0197 -0.2087 -0.3399 -0.3812
Max win streak 2 2 2 3 3
Max loss streak 23 29 27 18 18
Time in market 36.32% 44.86% 50.71% 52.59% 52.60%
Turnover 0.08 0.22 0.51 0.74 0.81
Realised P&L -24.57 -5.83 -61.58 -100.26 -112.46
Unrealised P&L 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fees paid 20.36 41.07 93.13 135.26 147.27
Fee drag 2.04% 4.11% 9.31% 13.53% 14.73%
Final equity 975.43 994.17 938.42 899.74 887.54

5m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return -0.62% -0.51% 1.62% -0.04% -1.46%
CAGR -7.26% -6.04% 21.64% -0.45% -16.41%
Buy and hold 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83%
Edge vs B&H -22.45% -22.34% -20.21% -21.87% -23.29%
Volatility (ann.) 4.10% 9.64% 20.72% 25.75% 28.64%
Sharpe -1.82 -0.60 1.05 0.11 -0.48
Sortino -1.34 -0.55 1.11 0.12 -0.51
Calmar -3.20 -1.68 2.37 -0.04 -1.10
Omega 0.96 0.99 1.02 1.00 0.99
Max drawdown 2.27% 3.60% 9.13% 12.63% 14.94%
Ulcer index 0.0127 0.0204 0.0417 0.0541 0.0671
Drawdown episodes 17 15 25 31 31
Longest underwater (days) 21.7 21.7 21.7 21.7 21.7
Recovery factor -0.27 -0.14 0.18 -0.00 -0.10
VaR 95% -0.186% -0.387% -1.298% -1.956% -2.154%
VaR 99% -0.227% -0.408% -1.388% -2.478% -3.323%
CVaR 95% -0.207% -0.397% -1.343% -2.217% -2.738%
Skew 2.41 2.49 2.07 1.59 1.49
Excess kurtosis 5.50 5.59 3.92 2.32 2.23
Best day 0.79% 1.94% 5.41% 5.96% 6.52%
Worst day -0.23% -0.41% -1.39% -2.48% -3.32%
Positive days 6 7 8 10 10
Negative days 24 23 22 20 20
Round trips 173 173 173 173 173
Winning / losing trades 28 / 145 23 / 150 29 / 144 45 / 128 43 / 130
Trades per day 5.77 5.77 5.77 5.77 5.77
Win rate 16.18% 13.29% 16.76% 26.01% 24.86%
Profit factor 0.83 0.93 1.08 1.00 0.96
Payoff ratio 4.29 6.09 5.36 2.85 2.91
Expectancy -0.0353 -0.0290 0.0949 0.0035 -0.0790
Average win 1.0475 3.0645 7.7167 7.1478 8.1753
Average loss 0.2445 0.5033 1.4401 2.5081 2.8092
Average trade -0.0353 -0.0290 0.0949 0.0035 -0.0790
Max win streak 3 3 3 3 3
Max loss streak 18 47 33 11 15
Time in market 36.49% 46.88% 52.05% 53.22% 53.22%
Turnover 0.06 0.15 0.43 0.64 0.72
Realised P&L -6.12 -5.01 16.41 0.61 -13.66
Unrealised P&L -0.06 -0.10 -0.18 -0.98 -0.97
Fees paid 12.17 24.29 57.04 82.94 90.07
Fee drag 1.22% 2.43% 5.70% 8.29% 9.01%
Final equity 993.83 994.89 1016.23 999.63 985.37

Every number on this page is read from the run record that produced it — the audit pipeline writes the page and the record together, so the two cannot drift apart.

With the break-even guard PASS

Exits: no exit below average entry plus fees, stops included

The metric set the portfolio dashboard reports, computed per cell so a backtested configuration and a running one read on the same axes. Portfolio-level measures (concentration, pairwise correlation, beta against a benchmark) are omitted: one strategy on one pair has no cross-sectional structure to measure, and printing a null would imply the number exists.

1m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 1.64% 4.28% 9.38% 12.12% 13.64%
CAGR 21.90% 66.51% 197.68% 302.27% 373.69%
Buy and hold 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88%
Edge vs B&H -20.24% -17.60% -12.50% -9.76% -8.24%
Volatility (ann.) 5.61% 13.54% 30.03% 34.54% 37.43%
Sharpe 3.56 3.83 3.78 4.20 4.34
Sortino 3.41 3.92 3.76 4.18 4.33
Calmar 19.02 21.82 33.06 47.25 53.77
Omega 1.02 1.02 1.02 1.02 1.02
Max drawdown 1.15% 3.05% 5.98% 6.40% 6.95%
Ulcer index 0.0052 0.0163 0.0278 0.0297 0.0320
Drawdown episodes 46 49 73 75 76
Longest underwater (days) 9.7 21.7 18.0 18.0 18.0
Recovery factor 1.42 1.40 1.57 1.89 1.96
VaR 95% -0.351% -0.731% -1.830% -1.990% -2.164%
VaR 99% -0.605% -1.252% -3.090% -3.354% -3.638%
CVaR 95% -0.478% -0.992% -2.460% -2.672% -2.901%
Skew 0.63 2.05 1.45 1.39 1.38
Excess kurtosis 0.43 6.18 2.84 2.38 2.35
Best day 0.79% 3.28% 6.37% 6.65% 7.26%
Worst day -0.60% -1.25% -3.09% -3.35% -3.64%
Positive days 16 16 17 16 16
Negative days 14 14 13 14 14
Round trips 28 23 27 30 28
Winning / losing trades 28 / 0 23 / 0 27 / 0 30 / 0 28 / 0
Trades per day 0.93 0.77 0.90 1.00 0.93
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 0.9189 2.7333 5.4742 5.9931 7.1838
Average win 0.9189 2.7333 5.4742 5.9931 7.1838
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 0.9189 2.7333 5.4742 5.9931 7.1838
Max win streak 28 23 27 30 28
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 96.86% 98.38% 98.35% 98.54% 98.61%
Turnover 0.03 0.06 0.15 0.18 0.20
Realised P&L 25.73 62.87 147.80 179.79 201.15
Unrealised P&L -9.32 -20.06 -54.00 -58.59 -64.78
Fees paid 4.19 7.43 15.17 18.56 18.91
Fee drag 0.42% 0.74% 1.52% 1.86% 1.89%
Final equity 1016.41 1042.80 1093.80 1121.21 1136.37

3m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 1.05% 5.91% 11.85% 14.04% 14.98%
CAGR 13.58% 101.05% 290.60% 394.69% 446.49%
Buy and hold 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86%
Edge vs B&H -20.81% -15.95% -10.01% -7.82% -6.88%
Volatility (ann.) 4.52% 11.61% 28.46% 33.08% 35.96%
Sharpe 2.84 6.07 4.93 5.00 4.90
Sortino 2.83 6.39 5.00 5.06 4.96
Calmar 15.33 34.17 54.00 62.91 65.89
Omega 1.02 1.06 1.04 1.04 1.04
Max drawdown 0.89% 2.96% 5.38% 6.27% 6.78%
Ulcer index 0.0037 0.0160 0.0261 0.0285 0.0305
Drawdown episodes 35 31 50 57 59
Longest underwater (days) 9.5 21.7 18.0 9.6 8.4
Recovery factor 1.19 2.00 2.20 2.24 2.21
VaR 95% -0.262% -0.720% -1.800% -1.959% -2.129%
VaR 99% -0.327% -1.173% -2.892% -3.141% -3.407%
CVaR 95% -0.295% -0.946% -2.346% -2.550% -2.768%
Skew 2.22 1.92 1.39 1.41 1.45
Excess kurtosis 6.97 3.90 2.06 2.01 2.23
Best day 1.07% 3.26% 5.70% 6.87% 7.86%
Worst day -0.33% -1.17% -2.89% -3.14% -3.41%
Positive days 15 15 15 15 15
Negative days 14 14 14 14 14
Round trips 19 16 14 19 18
Winning / losing trades 19 / 0 16 / 0 14 / 0 19 / 0 18 / 0
Trades per day 0.63 0.53 0.47 0.63 0.60
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 0.9168 4.5858 11.8960 10.5179 11.9534
Average win 0.9168 4.5858 11.8960 10.5179 11.9534
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 0.9168 4.5858 11.8960 10.5179 11.9534
Max win streak 19 16 14 19 18
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 94.55% 96.49% 97.70% 96.99% 97.22%
Turnover 0.02 0.07 0.17 0.20 0.22
Realised P&L 17.42 73.37 166.54 199.84 215.16
Unrealised P&L -6.90 -14.30 -48.05 -59.42 -65.37
Fees paid 2.29 4.42 8.06 11.93 12.37
Fee drag 0.23% 0.44% 0.81% 1.19% 1.24%
Final equity 1010.52 1059.08 1118.49 1140.42 1149.79

5m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 2.86% 5.87% 13.98% 16.37% 18.36%
CAGR 41.01% 100.27% 391.32% 532.65% 677.41%
Buy and hold 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83%
Edge vs B&H -18.96% -15.95% -7.85% -5.46% -3.47%
Volatility (ann.) 5.64% 11.10% 23.28% 30.21% 32.71%
Sharpe 6.12 6.31 6.95 6.26 6.43
Sortino 6.58 6.89 7.66 6.73 6.93
Calmar 36.77 49.27 78.40 89.85 105.31
Omega 1.09 1.09 1.08 1.07 1.07
Max drawdown 1.12% 2.04% 4.99% 5.93% 6.43%
Ulcer index 0.0059 0.0108 0.0199 0.0249 0.0267
Drawdown episodes 24 26 39 41 44
Longest underwater (days) 21.7 21.7 9.8 9.7 9.7
Recovery factor 2.57 2.89 2.80 2.76 2.85
VaR 95% -0.252% -0.494% -1.544% -1.908% -2.075%
VaR 99% -0.433% -0.845% -2.605% -3.204% -3.477%
CVaR 95% -0.343% -0.670% -2.074% -2.556% -2.776%
Skew 1.94 1.99 1.50 1.37 1.34
Excess kurtosis 3.76 4.05 2.31 1.82 1.72
Best day 1.36% 2.72% 5.15% 6.20% 6.77%
Worst day -0.43% -0.85% -2.60% -3.20% -3.48%
Positive days 17 16 18 17 17
Negative days 13 14 12 13 13
Round trips 16 14 15 15 15
Winning / losing trades 16 / 0 14 / 0 15 / 0 15 / 0 15 / 0
Trades per day 0.53 0.47 0.50 0.50 0.50
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 2.0642 4.7496 10.2983 12.9401 14.2997
Average win 2.0642 4.7496 10.2983 12.9401 14.2997
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 2.0642 4.7496 10.2983 12.9401 14.2997
Max win streak 16 14 15 15 15
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 93.35% 96.01% 96.25% 96.26% 96.29%
Turnover 0.03 0.07 0.15 0.19 0.21
Realised P&L 33.03 66.49 154.47 194.10 214.50
Unrealised P&L -4.38 -7.75 -14.69 -30.38 -30.90
Fees paid 2.19 3.93 7.87 9.20 10.04
Fee drag 0.22% 0.39% 0.79% 0.92% 1.00%
Final equity 1028.65 1058.74 1139.79 1163.72 1183.60

Every number on this page is read from the run record that produced it — the audit pipeline writes the page and the record together, so the two cannot drift apart.

What the guard is, and what a better number under it means. The break-even guard refuses any exit below average entry plus fees. It cannot improve a strategy's judgement — it can only stop it selling at a loss, which means holding the position instead. Across the pack that turns a strategy that churned into one that buys and waits: trade counts collapse and time in market rises towards 100%. In a window where the asset itself rose, that reads as a much better return while being strictly less of a strategy.

So read the return next to round trips, time in market and edge vs buy and hold. The last of those is the one that matters: not one strategy in this matrix beat simply holding the asset, in either run.

Ignore the win rate and the profit factor under the guard. Both count closed trades only, and the guard closes nothing at a loss — in all 101 guarded runs the number of losing closed trades is exactly zero. So the win rate goes to 100% and the profit factor becomes undefined for arithmetic reasons, while the losses sit in the position that is still open. The unrealised row is where they went.