← Force_Index_Elder

Force_Index_Elder — metrics

Unguarded: PASSGuarded: FAIL · 5 failDirectionalgunbot-quant

BTCUSDT · 2026-08-13 01:50 → 2026-09-12 01:50 UTC (30 days) · 0.03% fee + 2 bps slippage · 1,000 quote, one figure for every cell

The same document for both runs of the same measurement — first as the strategy ships, then with the break-even guard. Everything else about the two runs is identical.

As it ships PASS

Exits: the strategy's own exits, stops included

The metric set the portfolio dashboard reports, computed per cell so a backtested configuration and a running one read on the same axes. Portfolio-level measures (concentration, pairwise correlation, beta against a benchmark) are omitted: one strategy on one pair has no cross-sectional structure to measure, and printing a null would imply the number exists.

1m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return -6.84% -9.59% -27.13% -32.26% -26.93%
CAGR -57.79% -70.68% -97.87% -99.12% -97.80%
Buy and hold 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88%
Edge vs B&H -28.73% -31.47% -49.01% -54.14% -48.81%
Volatility (ann.) 1.91% 8.46% 9.14% 13.41% 10.85%
Sharpe -45.22 -14.47 -42.07 -35.26 -35.12
Sortino -30.18 -13.53 -26.71 -27.09 -30.25
Calmar -8.26 -6.65 -3.56 -3.05 -3.61
Omega 0.51 0.69 0.56 0.70 0.72
Max drawdown 7.00% 10.62% 27.48% 32.49% 27.11%
Ulcer index 0.0407 0.0582 0.1726 0.1906 0.1561
Drawdown episodes 1 2 1 1 1
Longest underwater (days) 29.9 23.4 29.9 29.9 29.9
Recovery factor -0.98 -0.90 -0.99 -0.99 -0.99
VaR 95% -0.465% -0.885% -2.187% -2.274% -2.219%
VaR 99% -0.531% -0.971% -2.297% -3.195% -2.631%
CVaR 95% -0.498% -0.928% -2.242% -2.734% -2.425%
Skew -0.18 3.63 -0.34 1.01 0.33
Excess kurtosis -0.33 15.07 -0.66 3.11 0.54
Best day -0.00% 2.46% 0.12% 1.61% 0.89%
Worst day -0.53% -0.97% -2.30% -3.20% -2.63%
Positive days 0 2 1 1 2
Negative days 30 28 29 29 28
Round trips 815 815 815 815 815
Winning / losing trades 49 / 766 41 / 774 25 / 790 72 / 743 82 / 733
Trades per day 27.17 27.17 27.17 27.17 27.17
Win rate 6.01% 5.03% 3.07% 8.83% 10.06%
Profit factor 0.19 0.38 0.13 0.30 0.31
Payoff ratio 2.97 7.22 4.14 3.14 2.81
Expectancy -0.0840 -0.1177 -0.3328 -0.3958 -0.3304
Average win 0.3271 1.4484 1.6380 1.9556 1.5079
Average loss 0.1103 0.2006 0.3952 0.6236 0.5361
Average trade -0.0840 -0.1177 -0.3328 -0.3958 -0.3304
Max win streak 3 3 1 3 3
Max loss streak 99 158 117 72 72
Time in market 9.03% 10.03% 10.98% 18.28% 22.11%
Turnover 0.10 0.21 0.35 0.60 0.52
Realised P&L -68.45 -95.91 -271.25 -322.56 -269.31
Unrealised P&L -0.00 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00
Fees paid 48.43 90.21 173.19 225.64 181.38
Fee drag 4.84% 9.02% 17.32% 22.56% 18.14%
Final equity 931.55 904.09 728.75 677.44 730.69

3m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return -1.64% -3.30% -4.55% -2.50% -1.65%
CAGR -18.22% -33.55% -43.25% -26.55% -18.31%
Buy and hold 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86%
Edge vs B&H -23.50% -25.16% -26.41% -24.36% -23.51%
Volatility (ann.) 1.85% 3.58% 10.96% 14.73% 11.28%
Sharpe -10.86 -11.41 -5.11 -2.02 -1.74
Sortino -7.22 -7.62 -3.85 -1.78 -1.73
Calmar -10.31 -9.56 -7.57 -3.56 -2.99
Omega 0.77 0.75 0.89 0.97 0.97
Max drawdown 1.77% 3.51% 5.71% 7.46% 6.12%
Ulcer index 0.0103 0.0206 0.0366 0.0418 0.0352
Drawdown episodes 1 1 2 20 31
Longest underwater (days) 29.9 29.9 22.6 21.7 21.7
Recovery factor -0.93 -0.94 -0.80 -0.34 -0.27
VaR 95% -0.201% -0.395% -0.969% -1.075% -0.840%
VaR 99% -0.281% -0.506% -1.068% -1.833% -1.437%
CVaR 95% -0.241% -0.450% -1.018% -1.454% -1.139%
Skew -1.13 -1.21 3.05 1.80 1.58
Excess kurtosis 1.13 1.07 11.26 5.03 3.04
Best day 0.05% 0.04% 2.95% 3.56% 2.54%
Worst day -0.28% -0.51% -1.07% -1.83% -1.44%
Positive days 5 3 2 8 7
Negative days 21 23 24 20 22
Round trips 240 240 240 240 240
Winning / losing trades 35 / 205 32 / 208 22 / 218 38 / 202 48 / 192
Trades per day 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00
Win rate 14.58% 13.33% 9.17% 15.83% 20.00%
Profit factor 0.43 0.37 0.63 0.87 0.89
Payoff ratio 2.50 2.38 6.28 4.62 3.56
Expectancy -0.0683 -0.1376 -0.1895 -0.1043 -0.0687
Average win 0.3487 0.5956 3.5773 4.3699 2.7867
Average loss 0.1395 0.2504 0.5697 0.9460 0.7825
Average trade -0.0683 -0.1376 -0.1895 -0.1043 -0.0687
Max win streak 2 2 2 3 4
Max loss streak 23 23 50 23 20
Time in market 10.42% 10.90% 11.90% 22.65% 26.94%
Turnover 0.04 0.07 0.20 0.36 0.28
Realised P&L -16.40 -33.03 -45.49 -25.04 -16.48
Unrealised P&L -0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.00 -0.00
Fees paid 14.70 27.09 60.11 80.00 61.73
Fee drag 1.47% 2.71% 6.01% 8.00% 6.17%
Final equity 983.60 966.97 954.51 974.96 983.52

5m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return -1.53% -0.88% -5.70% -4.86% -3.70%
CAGR -17.11% -10.19% -51.06% -45.47% -36.81%
Buy and hold 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83%
Edge vs B&H -23.36% -22.71% -27.53% -26.69% -25.53%
Volatility (ann.) 1.47% 5.13% 10.20% 13.24% 10.12%
Sharpe -12.74 -2.07 -6.95 -4.52 -4.48
Sortino -9.27 -1.80 -4.78 -4.02 -4.42
Calmar -10.83 -3.94 -6.27 -5.26 -5.15
Omega 0.69 0.93 0.77 0.91 0.91
Max drawdown 1.58% 2.58% 8.15% 8.64% 7.15%
Ulcer index 0.0103 0.0136 0.0525 0.0572 0.0468
Drawdown episodes 3 4 7 12 18
Longest underwater (days) 29.5 21.2 21.7 21.7 21.7
Recovery factor -0.97 -0.34 -0.70 -0.56 -0.52
VaR 95% -0.145% -0.275% -0.670% -1.035% -0.890%
VaR 99% -0.230% -0.412% -1.138% -1.428% -1.109%
CVaR 95% -0.188% -0.343% -0.904% -1.232% -1.000%
Skew -0.34 4.53 0.92 1.85 1.52
Excess kurtosis 0.48 20.59 3.88 4.08 3.51
Best day 0.11% 2.32% 1.14% 2.71% 1.98%
Worst day -0.23% -0.41% -1.14% -1.43% -1.11%
Positive days 5 3 5 8 9
Negative days 22 24 22 21 21
Round trips 162 162 162 162 162
Winning / losing trades 21 / 141 18 / 144 14 / 148 27 / 135 31 / 131
Trades per day 5.40 5.40 5.40 5.40 5.40
Win rate 12.96% 11.11% 8.64% 16.67% 19.14%
Profit factor 0.32 0.79 0.39 0.68 0.70
Payoff ratio 2.12 6.29 4.13 3.39 2.95
Expectancy -0.0945 -0.0543 -0.3521 -0.3001 -0.2285
Average win 0.3359 1.7947 2.6173 3.7880 2.7627
Average loss 0.1586 0.2854 0.6330 1.1178 0.9364
Average trade -0.0945 -0.0543 -0.3521 -0.3001 -0.2285
Max win streak 2 2 2 3 3
Max loss streak 23 31 31 21 21
Time in market 10.33% 11.84% 11.08% 19.62% 23.33%
Turnover 0.03 0.07 0.13 0.25 0.21
Realised P&L -15.30 -8.79 -57.05 -48.62 -37.02
Unrealised P&L -0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.00 -0.00
Fees paid 9.40 17.27 38.40 51.86 40.85
Fee drag 0.94% 1.73% 3.84% 5.19% 4.09%
Final equity 984.70 991.21 942.95 951.38 962.98

Every number on this page is read from the run record that produced it — the audit pipeline writes the page and the record together, so the two cannot drift apart.

With the break-even guard FAIL · 5 fail

Exits: no exit below average entry plus fees, stops included

The metric set the portfolio dashboard reports, computed per cell so a backtested configuration and a running one read on the same axes. Portfolio-level measures (concentration, pairwise correlation, beta against a benchmark) are omitted: one strategy on one pair has no cross-sectional structure to measure, and printing a null would imply the number exists.

1m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 1.07% 4.33% 8.73% 12.72% 15.67%
CAGR 13.77% 67.54% 176.84% 329.44% 487.57%
Buy and hold 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88%
Edge vs B&H -20.82% -17.55% -13.15% -9.16% -6.21%
Volatility (ann.) 3.92% 9.71% 24.54% 33.08% 37.53%
Sharpe 3.31 5.36 4.27 4.57 4.91
Sortino 3.12 5.76 4.19 4.57 4.89
Calmar 24.61 61.86 42.78 51.85 70.45
Omega 1.02 1.03 1.02 1.02 1.02
Max drawdown 0.56% 1.09% 4.13% 6.35% 6.92%
Ulcer index 0.0026 0.0051 0.0168 0.0255 0.0285
Drawdown episodes 51 40 52 72 86
Longest underwater (days) 8.2 8.2 8.4 9.5 9.5
Recovery factor 1.91 3.97 2.11 2.00 2.26
VaR 95% -0.194% -0.365% -1.174% -1.993% -2.164%
VaR 99% -0.212% -0.449% -1.282% -2.158% -2.342%
CVaR 95% -0.203% -0.407% -1.228% -2.075% -2.253%
Skew 0.91 3.09 1.69 1.59 1.82
Excess kurtosis 0.38 11.06 3.26 2.47 3.21
Best day 0.55% 2.92% 5.04% 6.06% 7.91%
Worst day -0.21% -0.45% -1.28% -2.16% -2.34%
Positive days 16 16 16 16 15
Negative days 14 14 14 14 15
Round trips 46 42 39 43 44
Winning / losing trades 46 / 0 42 / 0 39 / 0 43 / 0 44 / 0
Trades per day 1.53 1.40 1.30 1.43 1.47
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 0.3244 1.2117 2.9628 4.3039 5.0301
Average win 0.3244 1.2117 2.9628 4.3039 5.0301
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 0.3244 1.2117 2.9628 4.3039 5.0301
Max win streak 46 42 39 43 44
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 94.33% 94.81% 95.82% 96.85% 96.73%
Turnover 0.01 0.05 0.12 0.19 0.22
Realised P&L 14.92 50.89 115.55 185.07 221.32
Unrealised P&L -4.26 -7.57 -28.25 -57.82 -64.65
Fees paid 4.68 9.36 20.43 26.43 29.83
Fee drag 0.47% 0.94% 2.04% 2.64% 2.98%
Final equity 1010.66 1043.33 1087.30 1127.25 1156.67

3m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 0.35% 1.00% 6.14% 14.65% 15.48%
CAGR 4.38% 12.84% 106.53% 427.58% 476.17%
Buy and hold 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86%
Edge vs B&H -21.51% -20.86% -15.72% -7.21% -6.38%
Volatility (ann.) 3.43% 6.97% 18.58% 33.17% 36.18%
Sharpe 1.27 1.77 4.00 5.18 5.02
Sortino 1.14 1.64 3.77 5.25 5.09
Calmar 5.25 7.89 32.02 69.36 71.18
Omega 1.01 1.02 1.04 1.04 1.04
Max drawdown 0.83% 1.63% 3.33% 6.17% 6.69%
Ulcer index 0.0028 0.0056 0.0148 0.0283 0.0308
Drawdown episodes 37 36 32 59 56
Longest underwater (days) 8.2 8.2 13.5 9.7 9.7
Recovery factor 0.42 0.61 1.85 2.38 2.31
VaR 95% -0.199% -0.341% -0.855% -1.958% -2.129%
VaR 99% -0.213% -0.415% -1.232% -3.141% -3.407%
CVaR 95% -0.206% -0.378% -1.043% -2.549% -2.768%
Skew 0.38 0.47 2.74 1.27 1.29
Excess kurtosis -0.43 -0.33 9.85 1.62 1.73
Best day 0.33% 0.71% 4.78% 6.59% 7.16%
Worst day -0.21% -0.42% -1.23% -3.14% -3.41%
Positive days 15 15 16 16 16
Negative days 13 13 12 13 13
Round trips 37 31 29 30 31
Winning / losing trades 37 / 0 31 / 0 29 / 0 30 / 0 31 / 0
Trades per day 1.23 1.03 0.97 1.00 1.03
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 0.2747 0.7470 3.0469 6.8102 7.0431
Average win 0.2747 0.7470 3.0469 6.8102 7.0431
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 0.2747 0.7470 3.0469 6.8102 7.0431
Max win streak 37 31 29 30 31
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 82.11% 83.00% 84.99% 93.63% 93.62%
Turnover 0.01 0.02 0.09 0.20 0.22
Realised P&L 10.17 23.16 88.36 204.31 218.34
Unrealised P&L -6.64 -13.18 -26.94 -57.84 -63.54
Fees paid 3.46 6.45 15.31 18.48 20.89
Fee drag 0.35% 0.64% 1.53% 1.85% 2.09%
Final equity 1003.53 1009.98 1061.42 1146.47 1154.80

5m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 0.79% 0.94% 7.45% 12.40% 13.81%
CAGR 10.00% 12.07% 139.60% 314.41% 382.75%
Buy and hold 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83%
Edge vs B&H -21.04% -20.89% -14.38% -9.43% -8.01%
Volatility (ann.) 3.19% 7.24% 24.13% 33.05% 35.73%
Sharpe 3.00 1.61 3.74 4.47 4.58
Sortino 2.85 1.56 3.62 4.60 4.73
Calmar 18.91 7.26 27.19 50.22 56.40
Omega 1.04 1.02 1.04 1.05 1.05
Max drawdown 0.53% 1.66% 5.13% 6.26% 6.79%
Ulcer index 0.0020 0.0058 0.0196 0.0285 0.0305
Drawdown episodes 38 28 32 45 46
Longest underwater (days) 8.5 8.2 13.3 8.2 8.2
Recovery factor 1.49 0.57 1.45 1.98 2.04
VaR 95% -0.165% -0.316% -1.319% -1.909% -2.075%
VaR 99% -0.171% -0.415% -1.640% -3.206% -3.477%
CVaR 95% -0.168% -0.366% -1.479% -2.558% -2.776%
Skew 2.28 2.43 2.70 1.62 1.60
Excess kurtosis 6.17 7.80 9.38 3.57 3.47
Best day 0.70% 1.48% 6.97% 7.56% 8.21%
Worst day -0.17% -0.41% -1.64% -3.21% -3.48%
Positive days 15 15 15 15 15
Negative days 14 15 15 15 15
Round trips 30 21 20 20 20
Winning / losing trades 30 / 0 21 / 0 20 / 0 20 / 0 20 / 0
Trades per day 1.00 0.70 0.67 0.67 0.67
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 0.3995 1.0714 5.9911 8.9974 9.9998
Average win 0.3995 1.0714 5.9911 8.9974 9.9998
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 0.3995 1.0714 5.9911 8.9974 9.9998
Max win streak 30 21 20 20 20
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 72.75% 80.70% 89.40% 94.36% 94.41%
Turnover 0.01 0.02 0.12 0.18 0.20
Realised P&L 11.98 22.50 119.82 179.95 200.00
Unrealised P&L -4.12 -13.09 -45.36 -56.00 -61.85
Fees paid 2.74 4.11 10.20 12.31 13.45
Fee drag 0.27% 0.41% 1.02% 1.23% 1.35%
Final equity 1007.86 1009.41 1074.46 1123.95 1138.14

Every number on this page is read from the run record that produced it — the audit pipeline writes the page and the record together, so the two cannot drift apart.

What the guard is, and what a better number under it means. The break-even guard refuses any exit below average entry plus fees. It cannot improve a strategy's judgement — it can only stop it selling at a loss, which means holding the position instead. Across the pack that turns a strategy that churned into one that buys and waits: trade counts collapse and time in market rises towards 100%. In a window where the asset itself rose, that reads as a much better return while being strictly less of a strategy.

So read the return next to round trips, time in market and edge vs buy and hold. The last of those is the one that matters: not one strategy in this matrix beat simply holding the asset, in either run.

Ignore the win rate and the profit factor under the guard. Both count closed trades only, and the guard closes nothing at a loss — in all 101 guarded runs the number of losing closed trades is exactly zero. So the win rate goes to 100% and the profit factor becomes undefined for arithmetic reasons, while the losses sit in the position that is still open. The unrealised row is where they went.