← Gann_HiLo

Gann_HiLo — metrics

Unguarded: PASSGuarded: PASSDirectionalgunbot-quant

BTCUSDT · 2026-08-13 01:50 → 2026-09-12 01:50 UTC (30 days) · 0.03% fee + 2 bps slippage · 1,000 quote, one figure for every cell

The same document for both runs of the same measurement — first as the strategy ships, then with the break-even guard. Everything else about the two runs is identical.

As it ships PASS

Exits: the strategy's own exits, stops included

The metric set the portfolio dashboard reports, computed per cell so a backtested configuration and a running one read on the same axes. Portfolio-level measures (concentration, pairwise correlation, beta against a benchmark) are omitted: one strategy on one pair has no cross-sectional structure to measure, and printing a null would imply the number exists.

1m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return -9.57% -17.36% -34.13% -44.37% -46.88%
CAGR -70.59% -90.18% -99.38% -99.92% -99.95%
Buy and hold 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88%
Edge vs B&H -31.45% -39.25% -56.01% -66.25% -68.76%
Volatility (ann.) 5.48% 11.09% 21.72% 26.92% 29.31%
Sharpe -22.32 -20.87 -23.28 -26.37 -26.11
Sortino -21.67 -19.96 -23.27 -26.84 -26.65
Calmar -7.38 -5.14 -2.91 -2.24 -2.13
Omega 0.77 0.83 0.85 0.84 0.84
Max drawdown 9.57% 17.55% 34.16% 44.52% 47.02%
Ulcer index 0.0503 0.0927 0.1845 0.2407 0.2541
Drawdown episodes 1 2 3 3 3
Longest underwater (days) 30.0 21.7 29.9 29.9 29.9
Recovery factor -1.00 -0.99 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00
VaR 95% -0.598% -1.278% -2.759% -3.810% -4.078%
VaR 99% -0.649% -1.346% -2.858% -4.210% -4.626%
CVaR 95% -0.623% -1.312% -2.808% -4.010% -4.352%
Skew 3.77 2.50 2.22 1.93 1.93
Excess kurtosis 15.33 5.87 4.74 3.73 3.73
Best day 1.59% 2.26% 3.70% 3.89% 4.24%
Worst day -0.65% -1.35% -2.86% -4.21% -4.63%
Positive days 3 3 3 2 2
Negative days 27 27 27 28 28
Round trips 1,132 1,053 952 921 920
Winning / losing trades 90 / 1,042 69 / 984 103 / 849 138 / 783 138 / 782
Trades per day 37.73 35.10 31.73 30.70 30.67
Win rate 7.95% 6.55% 10.82% 14.98% 15.00%
Profit factor 0.34 0.37 0.42 0.44 0.44
Payoff ratio 3.91 5.28 3.48 2.51 2.52
Expectancy -0.0845 -0.1649 -0.3585 -0.4817 -0.5095
Average win 0.5426 1.4801 2.4184 2.5423 2.7200
Average loss 0.1387 0.2802 0.6954 1.0147 1.0794
Average trade -0.0845 -0.1649 -0.3585 -0.4817 -0.5095
Max win streak 4 2 5 6 6
Max loss streak 79 85 45 45 44
Time in market 34.63% 42.11% 49.13% 50.92% 50.94%
Turnover 0.19 0.38 0.84 1.15 1.22
Realised P&L -95.70 -173.63 -341.26 -443.67 -468.76
Unrealised P&L 0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.00
Fees paid 77.88 139.75 254.90 334.94 355.96
Fee drag 7.79% 13.98% 25.49% 33.49% 35.60%
Final equity 904.30 826.37 658.74 556.33 531.24

3m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return -2.09% -4.40% -6.68% -12.26% -13.92%
CAGR -22.63% -42.14% -56.91% -79.63% -83.85%
Buy and hold 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86%
Edge vs B&H -23.95% -26.26% -28.54% -34.12% -35.78%
Volatility (ann.) 4.34% 10.05% 21.09% 25.66% 28.12%
Sharpe -5.89 -5.40 -3.89 -6.07 -6.35
Sortino -5.05 -4.99 -4.11 -6.42 -6.68
Calmar -7.89 -6.16 -3.83 -3.75 -3.58
Omega 0.92 0.93 0.96 0.94 0.93
Max drawdown 2.87% 6.84% 14.85% 21.23% 23.44%
Ulcer index 0.0157 0.0386 0.0747 0.1064 0.1151
Drawdown episodes 9 16 32 32 32
Longest underwater (days) 21.7 21.7 21.7 21.7 21.7
Recovery factor -0.73 -0.64 -0.45 -0.58 -0.59
VaR 95% -0.271% -0.628% -1.571% -2.464% -2.630%
VaR 99% -0.459% -0.713% -2.018% -2.775% -2.815%
CVaR 95% -0.365% -0.671% -1.794% -2.620% -2.723%
Skew 2.58 2.55 1.86 1.63 1.69
Excess kurtosis 6.51 5.99 2.99 2.61 2.72
Best day 1.05% 2.07% 4.13% 4.67% 5.11%
Worst day -0.46% -0.71% -2.02% -2.78% -2.82%
Positive days 4 3 6 6 7
Negative days 25 26 23 23 22
Round trips 362 332 316 306 306
Winning / losing trades 39 / 323 31 / 301 36 / 280 50 / 256 50 / 256
Trades per day 12.07 11.07 10.53 10.20 10.20
Win rate 10.77% 9.34% 11.39% 16.34% 16.34%
Profit factor 0.65 0.62 0.78 0.72 0.71
Payoff ratio 5.39 6.01 6.05 3.66 3.61
Expectancy -0.0576 -0.1324 -0.2114 -0.4016 -0.4557
Average win 0.9944 2.3028 6.4825 6.1712 6.6753
Average loss 0.1846 0.3832 1.0721 1.6853 1.8485
Average trade -0.0576 -0.1324 -0.2114 -0.4016 -0.4557
Max win streak 3 2 2 3 3
Max loss streak 33 71 26 24 24
Time in market 40.24% 46.95% 51.74% 52.33% 52.33%
Turnover 0.10 0.19 0.53 0.74 0.81
Realised P&L -20.86 -43.95 -66.81 -122.88 -139.45
Unrealised P&L -0.01 -0.02 -0.03 0.29 0.28
Fees paid 25.03 44.93 95.51 135.42 147.67
Fee drag 2.50% 4.49% 9.55% 13.54% 14.77%
Final equity 979.13 956.03 933.16 877.41 860.82

5m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return -0.91% 0.63% -0.44% -1.71% -1.54%
CAGR -10.56% 7.99% -5.21% -18.96% -17.17%
Buy and hold 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83%
Edge vs B&H -22.74% -21.20% -22.27% -23.54% -23.37%
Volatility (ann.) 4.55% 11.50% 22.48% 27.27% 29.82%
Sharpe -2.43 0.73 -0.13 -0.63 -0.48
Sortino -2.03 0.74 -0.13 -0.69 -0.52
Calmar -4.08 1.57 -0.49 -1.40 -1.18
Omega 0.95 1.01 1.00 0.99 0.99
Max drawdown 2.59% 5.07% 10.55% 13.54% 14.60%
Ulcer index 0.0152 0.0304 0.0514 0.0721 0.0765
Drawdown episodes 19 19 29 29 28
Longest underwater (days) 21.7 21.7 21.7 21.7 21.7
Recovery factor -0.35 0.12 -0.04 -0.13 -0.11
VaR 95% -0.262% -0.456% -1.343% -1.725% -1.891%
VaR 99% -0.273% -0.522% -1.376% -1.788% -2.233%
CVaR 95% -0.268% -0.489% -1.360% -1.756% -2.062%
Skew 2.49 2.77 2.10 1.92 1.85
Excess kurtosis 5.85 7.20 4.16 3.12 2.94
Best day 0.92% 3.25% 5.32% 5.94% 6.41%
Worst day -0.27% -0.52% -1.38% -1.79% -2.23%
Positive days 6 6 10 8 8
Negative days 24 24 20 22 22
Round trips 212 193 177 170 170
Winning / losing trades 27 / 185 18 / 175 19 / 158 27 / 143 29 / 141
Trades per day 7.07 6.43 5.90 5.67 5.67
Win rate 12.74% 9.33% 10.73% 15.88% 17.06%
Profit factor 0.78 1.08 0.98 0.95 0.96
Payoff ratio 5.31 10.46 8.17 5.01 4.65
Expectancy -0.0428 0.0333 -0.0221 -0.0958 -0.0848
Average win 1.1591 5.0735 11.1447 10.5237 10.7749
Average loss 0.2182 0.4851 1.3649 2.1009 2.3184
Average trade -0.0428 0.0333 -0.0221 -0.0958 -0.0848
Max win streak 3 2 2 2 2
Max loss streak 27 34 47 40 40
Time in market 40.69% 48.63% 52.64% 53.03% 53.03%
Turnover 0.07 0.18 0.43 0.58 0.64
Realised P&L -9.08 6.43 -3.91 -16.29 -14.42
Unrealised P&L -0.05 -0.09 -0.48 -0.85 -0.95
Fees paid 14.64 26.97 56.10 79.06 86.09
Fee drag 1.46% 2.70% 5.61% 7.91% 8.61%
Final equity 990.87 1006.34 995.62 982.86 984.64

Every number on this page is read from the run record that produced it — the audit pipeline writes the page and the record together, so the two cannot drift apart.

With the break-even guard PASS

Exits: no exit below average entry plus fees, stops included

The metric set the portfolio dashboard reports, computed per cell so a backtested configuration and a running one read on the same axes. Portfolio-level measures (concentration, pairwise correlation, beta against a benchmark) are omitted: one strategy on one pair has no cross-sectional structure to measure, and printing a null would imply the number exists.

1m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 2.65% 5.16% 9.69% 13.17% 13.96%
CAGR 37.44% 84.46% 208.03% 350.60% 390.28%
Buy and hold 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88%
Edge vs B&H -19.23% -16.72% -12.19% -8.71% -7.92%
Volatility (ann.) 7.10% 13.92% 31.72% 36.13% 39.21%
Sharpe 4.51 4.47 3.71 4.35 4.25
Sortino 4.90 4.63 3.68 4.32 4.22
Calmar 32.50 29.85 34.09 55.18 56.66
Omega 1.03 1.02 1.02 1.02 1.02
Max drawdown 1.15% 2.83% 6.10% 6.35% 6.89%
Ulcer index 0.0053 0.0144 0.0294 0.0286 0.0310
Drawdown episodes 40 55 75 87 84
Longest underwater (days) 9.6 21.7 21.7 9.5 9.5
Recovery factor 2.30 1.82 1.59 2.07 2.03
VaR 95% -0.352% -0.731% -1.830% -1.992% -2.164%
VaR 99% -0.606% -1.253% -3.090% -2.557% -2.762%
CVaR 95% -0.479% -0.992% -2.460% -2.275% -2.463%
Skew 2.64 2.09 1.43 1.59 1.61
Excess kurtosis 9.17 4.73 2.43 2.58 2.61
Best day 2.05% 3.39% 6.25% 7.07% 7.67%
Worst day -0.61% -1.25% -3.09% -2.56% -2.76%
Positive days 16 16 16 16 16
Negative days 14 14 14 14 14
Round trips 26 22 24 29 30
Winning / losing trades 26 / 0 22 / 0 24 / 0 29 / 0 30 / 0
Trades per day 0.87 0.73 0.80 0.97 1.00
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 1.3803 3.2656 6.2929 6.5636 6.7981
Average win 1.3803 3.2656 6.2929 6.5636 6.7981
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 1.3803 3.2656 6.2929 6.5636 6.7981
Max win streak 26 22 24 29 30
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 97.98% 98.80% 98.63% 98.43% 98.42%
Turnover 0.04 0.07 0.15 0.19 0.20
Realised P&L 35.89 71.84 151.03 190.35 203.94
Unrealised P&L -9.41 -20.23 -54.15 -58.63 -64.35
Fees paid 3.73 7.31 13.55 18.00 20.35
Fee drag 0.37% 0.73% 1.36% 1.80% 2.03%
Final equity 1026.48 1051.61 1096.88 1131.71 1139.59

3m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 3.46% 5.67% 11.49% 12.01% 13.17%
CAGR 51.33% 95.60% 275.55% 297.33% 350.75%
Buy and hold 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86%
Edge vs B&H -18.40% -16.19% -10.37% -9.85% -8.69%
Volatility (ann.) 6.19% 13.17% 27.29% 34.80% 37.76%
Sharpe 6.72 5.16 4.99 4.14 4.18
Sortino 7.14 5.36 5.11 4.16 4.20
Calmar 34.32 35.36 48.86 45.57 49.54
Omega 1.07 1.05 1.04 1.03 1.03
Max drawdown 1.50% 2.70% 5.64% 6.52% 7.08%
Ulcer index 0.0080 0.0137 0.0263 0.0311 0.0337
Drawdown episodes 35 37 50 50 53
Longest underwater (days) 21.7 21.7 18.0 18.0 18.0
Recovery factor 2.32 2.10 2.04 1.84 1.86
VaR 95% -0.346% -0.720% -1.800% -1.958% -2.129%
VaR 99% -0.566% -1.172% -2.892% -3.141% -3.407%
CVaR 95% -0.456% -0.946% -2.346% -2.550% -2.768%
Skew 2.02 1.89 1.29 1.19 1.21
Excess kurtosis 4.05 3.73 1.90 1.29 1.35
Best day 1.53% 3.16% 5.70% 6.26% 6.87%
Worst day -0.57% -1.17% -2.89% -3.14% -3.41%
Positive days 15 15 16 15 15
Negative days 14 14 13 14 14
Round trips 18 15 15 17 17
Winning / losing trades 18 / 0 15 / 0 15 / 0 17 / 0 17 / 0
Trades per day 0.60 0.50 0.50 0.57 0.57
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 2.1806 5.0442 10.8537 10.4980 11.5366
Average win 2.1806 5.0442 10.8537 10.4980 11.5366
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 2.1806 5.0442 10.8537 10.4980 11.5366
Max win streak 18 15 15 17 17
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 96.38% 97.13% 97.58% 98.13% 98.13%
Turnover 0.04 0.08 0.16 0.18 0.20
Realised P&L 39.25 75.66 162.81 178.47 196.12
Unrealised P&L -4.61 -18.97 -47.92 -58.40 -64.39
Fees paid 2.54 4.62 8.58 10.59 11.58
Fee drag 0.25% 0.46% 0.86% 1.06% 1.16%
Final equity 1034.64 1056.69 1114.88 1120.06 1131.73

5m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 2.89% 5.03% 10.83% 14.53% 15.83%
CAGR 41.40% 81.74% 249.33% 421.01% 497.79%
Buy and hold 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83%
Edge vs B&H -18.94% -16.80% -11.00% -7.30% -6.00%
Volatility (ann.) 6.04% 12.09% 28.02% 33.81% 36.57%
Sharpe 5.77 5.00 4.60 5.05 5.07
Sortino 6.02 5.34 4.80 5.26 5.28
Calmar 39.48 33.58 43.91 69.49 75.76
Omega 1.08 1.06 1.05 1.05 1.05
Max drawdown 1.05% 2.43% 5.68% 6.06% 6.57%
Ulcer index 0.0058 0.0149 0.0268 0.0290 0.0314
Drawdown episodes 28 29 38 43 42
Longest underwater (days) 21.7 21.7 13.5 9.7 9.7
Recovery factor 2.75 2.07 1.91 2.40 2.41
VaR 95% -0.222% -0.494% -1.642% -1.908% -2.075%
VaR 99% -0.232% -0.846% -2.605% -3.204% -3.477%
CVaR 95% -0.227% -0.670% -2.123% -2.556% -2.776%
Skew 2.52 2.28 1.37 1.27 1.29
Excess kurtosis 6.46 5.38 1.87 1.45 1.49
Best day 1.61% 2.96% 5.48% 6.27% 6.87%
Worst day -0.23% -0.85% -2.60% -3.20% -3.48%
Positive days 16 15 17 17 17
Negative days 14 15 13 13 13
Round trips 15 13 12 12 12
Winning / losing trades 15 / 0 13 / 0 12 / 0 12 / 0 12 / 0
Trades per day 0.50 0.43 0.40 0.40 0.40
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 2.3303 4.8109 12.9244 16.3937 17.9173
Average win 2.3303 4.8109 12.9244 16.3937 17.9173
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 2.3303 4.8109 12.9244 16.3937 17.9173
Max win streak 15 13 12 12 12
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 93.21% 95.76% 95.90% 95.85% 95.85%
Turnover 0.03 0.06 0.16 0.20 0.22
Realised P&L 34.95 62.54 155.09 196.72 215.01
Unrealised P&L -6.07 -12.22 -46.81 -51.43 -56.69
Fees paid 2.09 3.93 6.90 7.62 8.33
Fee drag 0.21% 0.39% 0.69% 0.76% 0.83%
Final equity 1028.88 1050.33 1108.28 1145.30 1158.31

Every number on this page is read from the run record that produced it — the audit pipeline writes the page and the record together, so the two cannot drift apart.

What the guard is, and what a better number under it means. The break-even guard refuses any exit below average entry plus fees. It cannot improve a strategy's judgement — it can only stop it selling at a loss, which means holding the position instead. Across the pack that turns a strategy that churned into one that buys and waits: trade counts collapse and time in market rises towards 100%. In a window where the asset itself rose, that reads as a much better return while being strictly less of a strategy.

So read the return next to round trips, time in market and edge vs buy and hold. The last of those is the one that matters: not one strategy in this matrix beat simply holding the asset, in either run.

Ignore the win rate and the profit factor under the guard. Both count closed trades only, and the guard closes nothing at a loss — in all 101 guarded runs the number of losing closed trades is exactly zero. So the win rate goes to 100% and the profit factor becomes undefined for arithmetic reasons, while the losses sit in the position that is still open. The unrealised row is where they went.