← Guppy_GMMA

Guppy_GMMA — metrics

Unguarded: PASSGuarded: FAIL · 2 failDirectionalgunbot-quant

BTCUSDT · 2026-08-13 01:50 → 2026-09-12 01:50 UTC (30 days) · 0.03% fee + 2 bps slippage · 1,000 quote, one figure for every cell

The same document for both runs of the same measurement — first as the strategy ships, then with the break-even guard. Everything else about the two runs is identical.

As it ships PASS

Exits: the strategy's own exits, stops included

The metric set the portfolio dashboard reports, computed per cell so a backtested configuration and a running one read on the same axes. Portfolio-level measures (concentration, pairwise correlation, beta against a benchmark) are omitted: one strategy on one pair has no cross-sectional structure to measure, and printing a null would imply the number exists.

1m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return -7.66% -15.27% -30.70% -45.69% -45.47%
CAGR -62.06% -86.67% -98.85% -99.94% -99.94%
Buy and hold 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88%
Edge vs B&H -29.54% -37.15% -52.58% -67.57% -67.35%
Volatility (ann.) 2.02% 4.40% 15.08% 21.91% 26.47%
Sharpe -48.06 -45.74 -29.52 -33.78 -27.74
Sortino -28.39 -27.56 -23.13 -30.63 -28.02
Calmar -7.94 -5.57 -3.20 -2.18 -2.19
Omega 0.59 0.62 0.76 0.78 0.81
Max drawdown 7.82% 15.55% 30.86% 45.84% 45.61%
Ulcer index 0.0455 0.0927 0.1803 0.2744 0.2630
Drawdown episodes 4 4 4 8 8
Longest underwater (days) 30.0 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.9
Recovery factor -0.98 -0.98 -0.99 -1.00 -1.00
VaR 95% -0.393% -0.818% -1.974% -3.781% -4.204%
VaR 99% -0.397% -0.837% -2.259% -3.921% -4.296%
CVaR 95% -0.395% -0.828% -2.116% -3.851% -4.250%
Skew 0.98 1.25 2.58 1.15 1.59
Excess kurtosis 1.91 3.92 8.35 2.97 3.21
Best day 0.01% 0.09% 2.22% 1.80% 3.39%
Worst day -0.40% -0.84% -2.26% -3.92% -4.30%
Positive days 1 1 1 1 2
Negative days 29 29 29 29 28
Round trips 867 867 867 867 867
Winning / losing trades 55 / 812 55 / 812 66 / 801 116 / 751 122 / 745
Trades per day 28.90 28.90 28.90 28.90 28.90
Win rate 6.34% 6.34% 7.61% 13.38% 14.07%
Profit factor 0.17 0.16 0.30 0.34 0.41
Payoff ratio 2.57 2.31 3.62 2.19 2.51
Expectancy -0.0883 -0.1761 -0.3541 -0.5269 -0.5244
Average win 0.2931 0.5144 1.9753 2.0148 2.6015
Average loss 0.1142 0.2228 0.5461 0.9196 1.0363
Average trade -0.0883 -0.1761 -0.3541 -0.5269 -0.5244
Max win streak 2 2 2 2 3
Max loss streak 92 92 68 36 36
Time in market 16.32% 20.58% 27.42% 36.01% 38.43%
Turnover 0.11 0.21 0.57 0.92 1.09
Realised P&L -76.58 -152.65 -307.02 -456.86 -454.67
Unrealised P&L 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.00 -0.00
Fees paid 53.11 99.86 211.10 298.46 331.24
Fee drag 5.31% 9.99% 21.11% 29.85% 33.12%
Final equity 923.42 847.35 692.98 543.14 545.33

3m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return -2.70% -5.52% -2.20% -6.97% -8.57%
CAGR -28.35% -49.87% -23.67% -58.50% -66.40%
Buy and hold 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86%
Edge vs B&H -24.56% -27.38% -24.06% -28.83% -30.43%
Volatility (ann.) 1.81% 4.11% 16.73% 23.11% 25.37%
Sharpe -18.38 -16.78 -1.53 -3.69 -4.17
Sortino -13.00 -12.36 -1.40 -3.88 -4.50
Calmar -10.39 -8.96 -2.20 -3.73 -3.82
Omega 0.71 0.75 0.98 0.95 0.95
Max drawdown 2.73% 5.56% 10.77% 15.70% 17.36%
Ulcer index 0.0152 0.0317 0.0592 0.0816 0.0907
Drawdown episodes 1 6 30 30 31
Longest underwater (days) 30.0 29.9 21.7 21.7 21.7
Recovery factor -0.99 -0.99 -0.20 -0.44 -0.49
VaR 95% -0.193% -0.410% -1.236% -1.925% -2.207%
VaR 99% -0.203% -0.449% -1.318% -2.094% -2.479%
CVaR 95% -0.198% -0.430% -1.277% -2.009% -2.343%
Skew 0.30 0.42 2.28 1.87 1.80
Excess kurtosis -0.73 -0.02 4.57 3.20 2.82
Best day 0.03% 0.14% 5.09% 5.10% 5.33%
Worst day -0.20% -0.45% -1.32% -2.09% -2.48%
Positive days 3 2 5 8 8
Negative days 26 27 24 21 21
Round trips 296 296 296 296 296
Winning / losing trades 30 / 266 29 / 267 25 / 271 45 / 251 45 / 251
Trades per day 9.87 9.87 9.87 9.87 9.87
Win rate 10.14% 9.80% 8.45% 15.20% 15.20%
Profit factor 0.30 0.29 0.90 0.81 0.79
Payoff ratio 2.65 2.65 9.72 4.50 4.39
Expectancy -0.0913 -0.1864 -0.0742 -0.2356 -0.2897
Average win 0.3833 0.7678 7.6031 6.4584 7.0133
Average loss 0.1448 0.2900 0.7824 1.4357 1.5990
Average trade -0.0913 -0.1864 -0.0742 -0.2356 -0.2897
Max win streak 2 2 2 3 3
Max loss streak 38 31 50 20 20
Time in market 17.41% 22.65% 31.67% 39.31% 39.88%
Turnover 0.05 0.10 0.40 0.65 0.72
Realised P&L -27.02 -55.17 -21.96 -69.73 -85.74
Unrealised P&L 0.00 0.00 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00
Fees paid 17.82 34.44 83.36 127.31 138.99
Fee drag 1.78% 3.44% 8.34% 12.73% 13.90%
Final equity 972.98 944.83 978.04 930.27 914.26

5m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return -1.86% 0.38% -4.39% -2.69% -3.75%
CAGR -20.43% 4.68% -42.12% -28.23% -37.23%
Buy and hold 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83%
Edge vs B&H -23.69% -21.45% -26.22% -24.52% -25.58%
Volatility (ann.) 1.56% 8.26% 16.20% 24.19% 26.61%
Sharpe -14.67 0.60 -3.29 -1.25 -1.62
Sortino -9.14 0.46 -2.90 -1.31 -1.75
Calmar -10.90 1.32 -5.29 -2.21 -2.54
Omega 0.72 1.02 0.93 0.98 0.97
Max drawdown 1.87% 3.55% 7.97% 12.79% 14.67%
Ulcer index 0.0103 0.0209 0.0483 0.0694 0.0790
Drawdown episodes 4 13 11 25 25
Longest underwater (days) 29.9 21.7 21.7 21.7 21.7
Recovery factor -0.99 0.11 -0.55 -0.21 -0.26
VaR 95% -0.175% -0.329% -0.926% -1.587% -1.869%
VaR 99% -0.179% -0.342% -1.248% -2.080% -2.474%
CVaR 95% -0.177% -0.335% -1.087% -1.833% -2.172%
Skew 0.13 2.52 2.39 1.95 1.88
Excess kurtosis -0.26 5.15 4.89 3.27 3.00
Best day 0.08% 1.99% 3.11% 5.65% 6.13%
Worst day -0.18% -0.34% -1.25% -2.08% -2.47%
Positive days 5 4 4 6 6
Negative days 25 26 26 24 24
Round trips 179 179 179 179 179
Winning / losing trades 20 / 159 17 / 162 18 / 161 29 / 150 27 / 152
Trades per day 5.97 5.97 5.97 5.97 5.97
Win rate 11.17% 9.50% 10.06% 16.20% 15.08%
Profit factor 0.29 1.07 0.72 0.91 0.89
Payoff ratio 2.33 10.21 6.42 4.70 4.99
Expectancy -0.1033 0.0223 -0.2435 -0.1462 -0.2057
Average win 0.3841 3.5033 6.1697 9.0248 10.6057
Average loss 0.1646 0.3430 0.9605 1.9192 2.1262
Average trade -0.1033 0.0223 -0.2435 -0.1462 -0.2057
Max win streak 2 2 2 2 2
Max loss streak 33 34 29 20 20
Time in market 18.77% 25.58% 29.29% 39.96% 40.46%
Turnover 0.03 0.12 0.27 0.55 0.61
Realised P&L -18.48 3.98 -43.59 -26.17 -36.83
Unrealised P&L -0.12 -0.22 -0.36 -0.73 -0.72
Fees paid 10.68 21.23 48.65 81.59 89.24
Fee drag 1.07% 2.12% 4.87% 8.16% 8.92%
Final equity 981.39 1003.77 956.05 973.10 962.45

Every number on this page is read from the run record that produced it — the audit pipeline writes the page and the record together, so the two cannot drift apart.

With the break-even guard FAIL · 2 fail

Exits: no exit below average entry plus fees, stops included

The metric set the portfolio dashboard reports, computed per cell so a backtested configuration and a running one read on the same axes. Portfolio-level measures (concentration, pairwise correlation, beta against a benchmark) are omitted: one strategy on one pair has no cross-sectional structure to measure, and printing a null would imply the number exists.

1m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 0.60% 3.89% 10.95% 10.86% 12.03%
CAGR 7.56% 59.18% 254.09% 250.39% 298.27%
Buy and hold 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88%
Edge vs B&H -21.28% -17.99% -10.93% -11.03% -9.85%
Volatility (ann.) 4.26% 10.96% 26.72% 36.00% 39.13%
Sharpe 1.73 4.30 4.87 3.66 3.73
Sortino 1.67 4.48 4.90 3.63 3.69
Calmar 9.47 25.56 45.14 39.41 43.30
Omega 1.01 1.03 1.03 1.02 1.02
Max drawdown 0.80% 2.32% 5.63% 6.35% 6.89%
Ulcer index 0.0031 0.0116 0.0234 0.0301 0.0327
Drawdown episodes 45 31 54 72 78
Longest underwater (days) 9.5 21.7 21.7 9.7 9.7
Recovery factor 0.75 1.68 1.95 1.71 1.75
VaR 95% -0.355% -0.738% -1.830% -1.990% -2.164%
VaR 99% -0.435% -0.906% -3.090% -3.354% -3.638%
CVaR 95% -0.395% -0.822% -2.460% -2.672% -2.901%
Skew 0.27 3.00 1.26 1.23 1.28
Excess kurtosis 1.23 11.37 2.00 1.75 1.95
Best day 0.56% 3.30% 5.26% 6.23% 7.10%
Worst day -0.44% -0.91% -3.09% -3.35% -3.64%
Positive days 16 16 16 16 15
Negative days 14 14 14 14 15
Round trips 40 34 29 35 37
Winning / losing trades 40 / 0 34 / 0 29 / 0 35 / 0 37 / 0
Trades per day 1.33 1.13 0.97 1.17 1.23
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 0.2650 1.3855 4.3053 4.7426 4.9608
Average win 0.2650 1.3855 4.3053 4.7426 4.9608
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 0.2650 1.3855 4.3053 4.7426 4.9608
Max win streak 40 34 29 35 37
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 95.61% 96.97% 98.78% 98.63% 98.56%
Turnover 0.01 0.05 0.12 0.17 0.18
Realised P&L 10.60 47.11 124.85 165.99 183.55
Unrealised P&L -4.59 -8.16 -15.34 -57.43 -63.26
Fees paid 4.40 8.51 15.63 21.38 24.63
Fee drag 0.44% 0.85% 1.56% 2.14% 2.46%
Final equity 1006.01 1038.95 1109.51 1108.56 1120.29

3m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 0.53% 0.11% 4.38% 11.90% 12.98%
CAGR 6.67% 1.39% 68.41% 292.81% 341.69%
Buy and hold 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86%
Edge vs B&H -21.33% -21.75% -17.48% -9.96% -8.88%
Volatility (ann.) 3.25% 7.70% 25.18% 32.93% 35.47%
Sharpe 2.00 0.22 2.20 4.32 4.36
Sortino 1.96 0.21 2.16 4.35 4.40
Calmar 11.91 0.82 11.80 45.13 48.74
Omega 1.02 1.00 1.02 1.03 1.03
Max drawdown 0.56% 1.70% 5.80% 6.49% 7.01%
Ulcer index 0.0024 0.0076 0.0293 0.0310 0.0335
Drawdown episodes 26 24 36 49 50
Longest underwater (days) 15.0 18.0 21.7 18.0 18.0
Recovery factor 0.95 0.07 0.75 1.83 1.85
VaR 95% -0.174% -0.507% -1.584% -1.958% -2.129%
VaR 99% -0.224% -0.828% -2.552% -3.141% -3.407%
CVaR 95% -0.199% -0.668% -2.068% -2.549% -2.768%
Skew 0.41 -0.04 1.31 1.49 1.51
Excess kurtosis -0.60 0.73 3.08 2.36 2.42
Best day 0.33% 0.84% 4.84% 6.67% 7.25%
Worst day -0.22% -0.83% -2.55% -3.14% -3.41%
Positive days 15 15 15 15 15
Negative days 14 14 14 14 14
Round trips 23 21 19 21 22
Winning / losing trades 23 / 0 21 / 0 19 / 0 21 / 0 22 / 0
Trades per day 0.77 0.70 0.63 0.70 0.73
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 0.4264 0.6981 4.6649 8.4456 8.8239
Average win 0.4264 0.6981 4.6649 8.4456 8.8239
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 0.4264 0.6981 4.6649 8.4456 8.8239
Max win streak 23 21 19 21 22
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 93.20% 95.52% 97.83% 98.38% 98.38%
Turnover 0.01 0.01 0.09 0.18 0.19
Realised P&L 9.81 14.66 88.63 177.36 194.13
Unrealised P&L -4.48 -13.53 -44.86 -58.35 -64.28
Fees paid 2.21 4.58 9.90 13.17 14.73
Fee drag 0.22% 0.46% 0.99% 1.32% 1.47%
Final equity 1005.32 1001.13 1043.77 1119.01 1129.85

5m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 0.21% 7.47% 13.68% 16.08% 14.88%
CAGR 2.63% 140.24% 375.90% 513.38% 440.49%
Buy and hold 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83%
Edge vs B&H -21.62% -14.36% -8.15% -5.75% -6.95%
Volatility (ann.) 2.92% 11.64% 24.77% 32.57% 38.21%
Sharpe 0.91 7.59 6.42 5.73 4.61
Sortino 0.87 8.36 7.01 6.10 4.78
Calmar 5.02 50.16 67.95 90.08 65.55
Omega 1.01 1.11 1.08 1.06 1.05
Max drawdown 0.53% 2.80% 5.53% 5.70% 6.72%
Ulcer index 0.0022 0.0130 0.0222 0.0258 0.0322
Drawdown episodes 24 30 34 40 40
Longest underwater (days) 8.5 21.7 13.5 9.7 9.7
Recovery factor 0.41 2.67 2.47 2.82 2.21
VaR 95% -0.187% -0.702% -1.754% -1.909% -2.154%
VaR 99% -0.190% -1.197% -2.952% -3.205% -3.477%
CVaR 95% -0.188% -0.950% -2.353% -2.557% -2.815%
Skew 0.25 2.03 1.41 1.26 1.18
Excess kurtosis -0.52 4.54 2.12 1.39 1.09
Best day 0.27% 3.58% 5.54% 6.49% 6.99%
Worst day -0.19% -1.20% -2.95% -3.21% -3.48%
Positive days 16 16 16 16 16
Negative days 14 14 14 14 14
Round trips 17 15 13 15 15
Winning / losing trades 17 / 0 15 / 0 13 / 0 15 / 0 15 / 0
Trades per day 0.57 0.50 0.43 0.50 0.50
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 0.3698 5.4896 11.6182 12.6796 13.9346
Average win 0.3698 5.4896 11.6182 12.6796 13.9346
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 0.3698 5.4896 11.6182 12.6796 13.9346
Max win streak 17 15 13 15 15
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 89.62% 95.38% 97.42% 97.45% 97.45%
Turnover 0.01 0.08 0.15 0.19 0.21
Realised P&L 6.29 82.34 151.04 190.19 209.02
Unrealised P&L -4.15 -7.65 -14.23 -29.43 -60.26
Fees paid 1.56 3.97 6.96 9.32 10.36
Fee drag 0.16% 0.40% 0.70% 0.93% 1.04%
Final equity 1002.14 1074.70 1136.81 1160.77 1148.76

Every number on this page is read from the run record that produced it — the audit pipeline writes the page and the record together, so the two cannot drift apart.

What the guard is, and what a better number under it means. The break-even guard refuses any exit below average entry plus fees. It cannot improve a strategy's judgement — it can only stop it selling at a loss, which means holding the position instead. Across the pack that turns a strategy that churned into one that buys and waits: trade counts collapse and time in market rises towards 100%. In a window where the asset itself rose, that reads as a much better return while being strictly less of a strategy.

So read the return next to round trips, time in market and edge vs buy and hold. The last of those is the one that matters: not one strategy in this matrix beat simply holding the asset, in either run.

Ignore the win rate and the profit factor under the guard. Both count closed trades only, and the guard closes nothing at a loss — in all 101 guarded runs the number of losing closed trades is exactly zero. So the win rate goes to 100% and the profit factor becomes undefined for arithmetic reasons, while the losses sit in the position that is still open. The unrealised row is where they went.