← Ichimoku_Kumo_Breakout

Ichimoku_Kumo_Breakout — metrics

Unguarded: PASSGuarded: PASSDirectionalgunbot-quant

BTCUSDT · 2026-08-13 01:50 → 2026-09-12 01:50 UTC (30 days) · 0.03% fee + 2 bps slippage · 1,000 quote, one figure for every cell

The same document for both runs of the same measurement — first as the strategy ships, then with the break-even guard. Everything else about the two runs is identical.

As it ships PASS

Exits: the strategy's own exits, stops included

The metric set the portfolio dashboard reports, computed per cell so a backtested configuration and a running one read on the same axes. Portfolio-level measures (concentration, pairwise correlation, beta against a benchmark) are omitted: one strategy on one pair has no cross-sectional structure to measure, and printing a null would imply the number exists.

1m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return -12.21% -17.26% -30.49% -40.87% -43.27%
CAGR -79.51% -90.03% -98.80% -99.83% -99.90%
Buy and hold 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88%
Edge vs B&H -34.10% -39.14% -52.38% -62.75% -65.15%
Volatility (ann.) 3.53% 9.10% 17.56% 22.01% 23.95%
Sharpe -44.89 -25.29 -25.11 -28.93 -28.67
Sortino -37.87 -25.34 -24.86 -29.44 -29.55
Calmar -6.51 -5.22 -3.24 -2.44 -2.31
Omega 0.64 0.74 0.78 0.78 0.78
Max drawdown 12.21% 17.26% 30.49% 40.87% 43.27%
Ulcer index 0.0696 0.0948 0.1627 0.2272 0.2418
Drawdown episodes 1 1 1 1 1
Longest underwater (days) 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0
Recovery factor -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00
VaR 95% -0.582% -1.066% -2.089% -3.142% -3.455%
VaR 99% -0.617% -1.085% -2.254% -3.143% -3.662%
CVaR 95% -0.599% -1.075% -2.172% -3.143% -3.558%
Skew 2.52 3.11 1.80 1.30 1.17
Excess kurtosis 8.03 10.93 3.40 1.41 1.22
Best day 0.24% 1.86% 2.04% 2.10% 2.39%
Worst day -0.62% -1.08% -2.25% -3.14% -3.66%
Positive days 1 2 3 2 2
Negative days 29 28 27 28 28
Round trips 1,370 1,107 905 835 829
Winning / losing trades 101 / 1,269 58 / 1,049 80 / 825 109 / 726 110 / 719
Trades per day 45.67 36.90 30.17 27.83 27.63
Win rate 7.37% 5.24% 8.84% 13.05% 13.27%
Profit factor 0.21 0.31 0.38 0.39 0.39
Payoff ratio 2.60 5.59 3.88 2.60 2.58
Expectancy -0.0892 -0.1559 -0.3370 -0.4894 -0.5219
Average win 0.3157 1.3308 2.3018 2.4055 2.5577
Average loss 0.1214 0.2381 0.5928 0.9241 0.9931
Average trade -0.0892 -0.1559 -0.3370 -0.4894 -0.5219
Max win streak 4 3 2 2 2
Max loss streak 95 98 62 45 43
Time in market 30.10% 30.77% 31.17% 31.40% 31.42%
Turnover 0.19 0.33 0.67 0.93 1.00
Realised P&L -122.15 -172.62 -304.94 -408.68 -432.68
Unrealised P&L -0.00 -0.00 0.00 -0.00 -0.00
Fees paid 85.32 133.31 231.10 301.35 318.79
Fee drag 8.53% 13.33% 23.11% 30.14% 31.88%
Final equity 877.85 827.38 695.06 591.32 567.32

3m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return -2.09% -1.62% -5.37% -9.69% -11.15%
CAGR -22.68% -17.98% -48.92% -71.07% -76.26%
Buy and hold 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86%
Edge vs B&H -23.95% -23.48% -27.23% -31.55% -33.01%
Volatility (ann.) 3.95% 8.59% 17.00% 21.14% 23.08%
Sharpe -6.49 -2.26 -3.87 -5.76 -6.11
Sortino -6.33 -2.32 -3.96 -6.07 -6.49
Calmar -6.43 -3.45 -4.29 -4.30 -4.18
Omega 0.89 0.96 0.94 0.92 0.92
Max drawdown 3.53% 5.21% 11.40% 16.52% 18.26%
Ulcer index 0.0185 0.0284 0.0580 0.0801 0.0892
Drawdown episodes 17 18 20 21 23
Longest underwater (days) 21.7 21.7 21.7 21.7 21.7
Recovery factor -0.59 -0.31 -0.47 -0.59 -0.61
VaR 95% -0.308% -0.511% -1.356% -2.335% -2.637%
VaR 99% -0.342% -0.606% -1.433% -2.371% -2.753%
CVaR 95% -0.325% -0.559% -1.395% -2.353% -2.695%
Skew 3.72 2.98 2.25 1.67 1.55
Excess kurtosis 14.84 9.33 5.52 3.20 2.70
Best day 1.48% 2.85% 4.61% 5.19% 5.46%
Worst day -0.34% -0.61% -1.43% -2.37% -2.75%
Positive days 4 6 6 7 7
Negative days 25 23 23 22 22
Round trips 431 351 308 289 289
Winning / losing trades 52 / 379 28 / 323 28 / 280 42 / 247 41 / 248
Trades per day 14.37 11.70 10.27 9.63 9.63
Win rate 12.06% 7.98% 9.09% 14.53% 14.19%
Profit factor 0.65 0.84 0.77 0.72 0.70
Payoff ratio 4.76 9.68 7.67 4.22 4.26
Expectancy -0.0485 -0.0460 -0.1744 -0.3353 -0.3856
Average win 0.7594 3.0168 6.3147 5.8591 6.4745
Average loss 0.1594 0.3115 0.8233 1.3886 1.5198
Average trade -0.0485 -0.0460 -0.1744 -0.3353 -0.3856
Max win streak 3 1 2 3 3
Max loss streak 46 40 54 25 25
Time in market 31.37% 31.85% 32.11% 32.27% 32.28%
Turnover 0.10 0.19 0.41 0.59 0.64
Realised P&L -20.92 -16.16 -53.72 -96.91 -111.45
Unrealised P&L 0.00 0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.00
Fees paid 27.50 42.95 86.37 125.21 135.76
Fee drag 2.75% 4.29% 8.64% 12.52% 13.58%
Final equity 979.08 983.84 946.28 903.09 888.55

5m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return -0.65% -0.10% -0.32% -1.84% -2.14%
CAGR -7.60% -1.20% -3.83% -20.23% -23.11%
Buy and hold 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83%
Edge vs B&H -22.48% -21.93% -22.15% -23.67% -23.97%
Volatility (ann.) 4.25% 9.60% 18.43% 22.65% 24.78%
Sharpe -1.84 -0.08 -0.12 -0.88 -0.94
Sortino -1.95 -0.08 -0.13 -0.98 -1.04
Calmar -3.00 -0.26 -0.46 -1.79 -1.87
Omega 0.96 1.00 1.00 0.98 0.98
Max drawdown 2.53% 4.52% 8.41% 11.32% 12.33%
Ulcer index 0.0143 0.0277 0.0450 0.0551 0.0576
Drawdown episodes 14 12 19 20 20
Longest underwater (days) 21.7 21.7 21.7 21.7 21.7
Recovery factor -0.26 -0.02 -0.04 -0.16 -0.17
VaR 95% -0.255% -0.428% -1.035% -1.848% -1.943%
VaR 99% -0.274% -0.504% -1.289% -2.246% -2.593%
CVaR 95% -0.264% -0.466% -1.162% -2.047% -2.268%
Skew 2.62 2.55 2.34 1.65 1.50
Excess kurtosis 6.58 5.87 5.26 3.00 2.40
Best day 1.04% 2.06% 4.42% 4.85% 5.23%
Worst day -0.27% -0.50% -1.29% -2.25% -2.59%
Positive days 4 5 5 9 10
Negative days 26 25 25 21 20
Round trips 268 213 184 174 173
Winning / losing trades 38 / 230 24 / 189 22 / 162 34 / 140 33 / 140
Trades per day 8.93 7.10 6.13 5.80 5.77
Win rate 14.18% 11.27% 11.96% 19.54% 19.08%
Profit factor 0.86 0.99 0.98 0.93 0.93
Payoff ratio 5.20 7.78 7.24 3.84 3.94
Expectancy -0.0239 -0.0042 -0.0145 -0.1009 -0.1181
Average win 1.0301 2.9904 7.4016 7.1923 8.1441
Average loss 0.1981 0.3845 1.0216 1.8721 2.0656
Average trade -0.0239 -0.0042 -0.0145 -0.1009 -0.1181
Max win streak 2 2 3 3 3
Max loss streak 26 23 24 17 16
Time in market 33.45% 33.90% 34.31% 34.54% 34.58%
Turnover 0.08 0.14 0.33 0.51 0.56
Realised P&L -6.42 -0.90 -2.67 -17.56 -20.43
Unrealised P&L -0.05 -0.09 -0.54 -0.85 -0.94
Fees paid 17.13 26.72 54.03 79.94 87.59
Fee drag 1.71% 2.67% 5.40% 7.99% 8.76%
Final equity 993.53 999.01 996.79 981.59 978.63

Every number on this page is read from the run record that produced it — the audit pipeline writes the page and the record together, so the two cannot drift apart.

With the break-even guard PASS

Exits: no exit below average entry plus fees, stops included

The metric set the portfolio dashboard reports, computed per cell so a backtested configuration and a running one read on the same axes. Portfolio-level measures (concentration, pairwise correlation, beta against a benchmark) are omitted: one strategy on one pair has no cross-sectional structure to measure, and printing a null would imply the number exists.

1m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 3.09% 4.88% 8.51% 11.98% 13.09%
CAGR 44.75% 78.64% 170.26% 296.18% 346.91%
Buy and hold 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88%
Edge vs B&H -18.80% -17.00% -13.37% -9.90% -8.79%
Volatility (ann.) 6.93% 12.38% 29.27% 32.02% 36.10%
Sharpe 5.37 4.75 3.54 4.46 4.33
Sortino 5.96 5.00 3.53 4.50 4.31
Calmar 38.83 32.41 28.97 49.68 53.65
Omega 1.03 1.03 1.02 1.02 1.02
Max drawdown 1.15% 2.43% 5.88% 5.96% 6.47%
Ulcer index 0.0046 0.0096 0.0268 0.0240 0.0267
Drawdown episodes 53 48 65 76 74
Longest underwater (days) 13.3 21.7 18.0 9.5 9.5
Recovery factor 2.68 2.01 1.45 2.01 2.03
VaR 95% -0.242% -0.505% -1.830% -1.992% -2.164%
VaR 99% -0.273% -0.566% -3.090% -2.530% -2.745%
CVaR 95% -0.258% -0.536% -2.460% -2.261% -2.454%
Skew 3.29 2.56 0.96 1.46 1.36
Excess kurtosis 11.37 6.58 1.37 2.33 1.87
Best day 2.28% 3.07% 4.85% 6.15% 6.54%
Worst day -0.27% -0.57% -3.09% -2.53% -2.74%
Positive days 16 16 17 15 16
Negative days 14 14 13 15 14
Round trips 25 25 26 32 34
Winning / losing trades 25 / 0 25 / 0 26 / 0 32 / 0 34 / 0
Trades per day 0.83 0.83 0.87 1.07 1.13
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 1.6080 2.7517 5.2816 5.4093 5.5763
Average win 1.6080 2.7517 5.2816 5.4093 5.5763
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 1.6080 2.7517 5.2816 5.4093 5.5763
Max win streak 25 25 26 32 34
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 98.13% 98.07% 97.83% 97.71% 97.59%
Turnover 0.04 0.07 0.14 0.17 0.19
Realised P&L 40.20 68.79 137.32 173.10 189.59
Unrealised P&L -9.34 -19.95 -52.18 -53.29 -58.65
Fees paid 3.65 7.35 14.40 19.74 22.85
Fee drag 0.37% 0.74% 1.44% 1.97% 2.28%
Final equity 1030.86 1048.84 1085.15 1119.80 1130.95

3m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 3.06% 4.59% 8.97% 9.86% 10.91%
CAGR 44.23% 72.74% 184.56% 214.15% 252.45%
Buy and hold 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86%
Edge vs B&H -18.80% -17.27% -12.89% -12.00% -10.95%
Volatility (ann.) 6.13% 11.41% 27.17% 34.71% 37.65%
Sharpe 6.00 4.85 3.98 3.47 3.53
Sortino 6.32 4.99 4.00 3.45 3.52
Calmar 40.20 31.69 33.75 33.10 35.92
Omega 1.06 1.04 1.03 1.03 1.03
Max drawdown 1.10% 2.30% 5.47% 6.47% 7.03%
Ulcer index 0.0055 0.0111 0.0265 0.0285 0.0309
Drawdown episodes 35 28 41 41 41
Longest underwater (days) 18.0 18.0 18.0 9.5 9.5
Recovery factor 2.78 2.00 1.64 1.52 1.55
VaR 95% -0.346% -0.720% -1.800% -1.960% -2.129%
VaR 99% -0.566% -1.172% -2.892% -2.499% -2.715%
CVaR 95% -0.456% -0.946% -2.346% -2.230% -2.422%
Skew 2.36 2.24 1.26 1.56 1.54
Excess kurtosis 6.20 6.95 2.61 3.25 3.13
Best day 1.89% 3.33% 5.88% 7.00% 7.58%
Worst day -0.57% -1.17% -2.89% -2.50% -2.72%
Positive days 15 15 15 15 15
Negative days 14 14 14 14 14
Round trips 19 19 17 20 20
Winning / losing trades 19 / 0 19 / 0 17 / 0 20 / 0 20 / 0
Trades per day 0.63 0.63 0.57 0.67 0.67
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 1.9762 3.1573 8.0221 7.7753 8.5867
Average win 1.9762 3.1573 8.0221 7.7753 8.5867
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 1.9762 3.1573 8.0221 7.7753 8.5867
Max win streak 19 19 17 20 20
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 96.13% 96.20% 96.44% 97.01% 96.90%
Turnover 0.04 0.06 0.14 0.16 0.17
Realised P&L 37.55 59.99 136.38 155.51 171.73
Unrealised P&L -6.99 -14.04 -46.63 -56.86 -62.65
Fees paid 2.43 4.63 9.14 12.36 13.50
Fee drag 0.24% 0.46% 0.91% 1.24% 1.35%
Final equity 1030.56 1045.95 1089.75 1098.65 1109.08

5m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 2.95% 6.24% 12.23% 13.21% 14.48%
CAGR 42.52% 108.89% 306.85% 352.62% 418.16%
Buy and hold 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83%
Edge vs B&H -18.87% -15.59% -9.60% -8.62% -7.35%
Volatility (ann.) 6.03% 11.28% 23.76% 31.85% 34.46%
Sharpe 5.91 6.58 6.02 4.90 4.95
Sortino 6.51 7.34 6.56 5.09 5.14
Calmar 38.39 53.32 62.59 59.56 65.50
Omega 1.08 1.09 1.07 1.05 1.05
Max drawdown 1.11% 2.04% 4.90% 5.92% 6.38%
Ulcer index 0.0061 0.0110 0.0216 0.0284 0.0306
Drawdown episodes 24 26 33 36 39
Longest underwater (days) 21.7 21.7 18.0 9.8 9.8
Recovery factor 2.67 3.06 2.49 2.23 2.27
VaR 95% -0.252% -0.494% -1.544% -1.946% -2.076%
VaR 99% -0.433% -0.846% -2.605% -3.204% -3.477%
CVaR 95% -0.343% -0.670% -2.074% -2.575% -2.776%
Skew 2.44 2.36 1.61 1.29 1.38
Excess kurtosis 6.01 5.37 2.73 1.73 2.04
Best day 1.61% 2.94% 5.34% 6.36% 7.30%
Worst day -0.43% -0.85% -2.60% -3.20% -3.48%
Positive days 16 16 17 16 16
Negative days 14 14 13 14 14
Round trips 13 13 13 15 15
Winning / losing trades 13 / 0 13 / 0 13 / 0 15 / 0 15 / 0
Trades per day 0.43 0.43 0.43 0.50 0.50
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 2.5959 5.3743 11.5948 12.4127 13.5922
Average win 2.5959 5.3743 11.5948 12.4127 13.5922
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 2.5959 5.3743 11.5948 12.4127 13.5922
Max win streak 13 13 13 15 15
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 96.63% 95.82% 96.57% 96.59% 96.59%
Turnover 0.03 0.07 0.15 0.19 0.20
Realised P&L 33.75 69.87 150.73 186.19 203.88
Unrealised P&L -4.20 -7.45 -28.48 -54.06 -59.10
Fees paid 1.87 3.72 7.27 9.43 10.31
Fee drag 0.19% 0.37% 0.73% 0.94% 1.03%
Final equity 1029.55 1062.42 1122.25 1132.13 1144.78

Every number on this page is read from the run record that produced it — the audit pipeline writes the page and the record together, so the two cannot drift apart.

What the guard is, and what a better number under it means. The break-even guard refuses any exit below average entry plus fees. It cannot improve a strategy's judgement — it can only stop it selling at a loss, which means holding the position instead. Across the pack that turns a strategy that churned into one that buys and waits: trade counts collapse and time in market rises towards 100%. In a window where the asset itself rose, that reads as a much better return while being strictly less of a strategy.

So read the return next to round trips, time in market and edge vs buy and hold. The last of those is the one that matters: not one strategy in this matrix beat simply holding the asset, in either run.

Ignore the win rate and the profit factor under the guard. Both count closed trades only, and the guard closes nothing at a loss — in all 101 guarded runs the number of losing closed trades is exactly zero. So the win rate goes to 100% and the profit factor becomes undefined for arithmetic reasons, while the losses sit in the position that is still open. The unrealised row is where they went.