← Ichimoku_MM

Ichimoku_MM — metrics

Unguarded: PASSGuarded: WARN · 1 warnMM-DCAgunbot-quant

BTCUSDT · 2026-08-13 01:50 → 2026-09-12 01:50 UTC (30 days) · 0.03% fee + 2 bps slippage · 122 quote, one figure for every cell

The same document for both runs of the same measurement — first as the strategy ships, then with the break-even guard. Everything else about the two runs is identical.

As it ships PASS

Exits: the strategy's own exits, stops included

The metric set the portfolio dashboard reports, computed per cell so a backtested configuration and a running one read on the same axes. Portfolio-level measures (concentration, pairwise correlation, beta against a benchmark) are omitted: one strategy on one pair has no cross-sectional structure to measure, and printing a null would imply the number exists.

1m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return -21.69% -30.44% -43.57% -57.97% -59.03%
CAGR -94.89% -98.79% -99.91% -100.00% -100.00%
Buy and hold 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88%
Edge vs B&H -43.57% -52.32% -65.45% -79.85% -80.91%
Volatility (ann.) 8.47% 12.54% 18.45% 21.67% 24.16%
Sharpe -35.09 -35.16 -37.64 -48.55 -44.82
Sortino -32.59 -32.68 -34.70 -44.01 -40.52
Calmar -4.37 -3.24 -2.29 -1.72 -1.69
Omega 0.78 0.78 0.77 0.74 0.74
Max drawdown 21.70% 30.46% 43.60% 58.00% 59.08%
Ulcer index 0.1193 0.1675 0.2408 0.3330 0.3923
Drawdown episodes 1 1 1 1 1
Longest underwater (days) 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0
Recovery factor -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00
VaR 95% -1.516% -2.259% -3.576% -4.648% -4.927%
VaR 99% -1.952% -2.850% -4.358% -5.244% -6.399%
CVaR 95% -1.734% -2.555% -3.967% -4.946% -5.663%
Skew -0.39 -0.42 -0.42 -0.02 0.40
Excess kurtosis 1.84 1.37 0.67 -0.40 0.40
Best day 0.04% 0.06% 0.09% -0.46% 0.00%
Worst day -1.95% -2.85% -4.36% -5.24% -6.40%
Positive days 2 1 1 0 1
Negative days 28 29 29 30 29
Round trips 1,119 1,117 1,115 1,114 1,002
Winning / losing trades 216 / 903 214 / 903 211 / 904 199 / 915 180 / 822
Trades per day 37.30 37.23 37.17 37.13 33.40
Win rate 19.30% 19.16% 18.92% 17.86% 17.96%
Profit factor 0.13 0.13 0.12 0.11 0.12
Payoff ratio 0.54 0.54 0.53 0.49 0.55
Expectancy -0.0236 -0.0332 -0.0477 -0.0635 -0.0719
Average win 0.0182 0.0252 0.0355 0.0428 0.0545
Average loss 0.0336 0.0471 0.0671 0.0866 0.0995
Average trade -0.0236 -0.0332 -0.0477 -0.0635 -0.0719
Max win streak 8 7 7 6 6
Max loss streak 79 79 79 79 79
Time in market 47.35% 47.36% 47.40% 47.41% 42.37%
Turnover 0.28 0.39 0.56 0.72 0.75
Realised P&L -26.45 -37.12 -53.14 -70.70 -72.02
Unrealised P&L -0.01 -0.02 -0.02 -0.02 -0.00
Fees paid 18.67 26.10 36.53 46.02 48.39
Fee drag 15.30% 21.39% 29.94% 37.72% 39.66%
Final equity 95.54 84.86 68.84 51.27 49.98

3m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return -6.58% -9.06% -12.21% -17.71% -23.39%
CAGR -56.34% -68.50% -79.51% -90.66% -96.09%
Buy and hold 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86%
Edge vs B&H -28.44% -30.92% -34.07% -39.57% -45.25%
Volatility (ann.) 7.82% 11.11% 17.97% 20.81% 22.80%
Sharpe -10.56 -10.35 -8.73 -11.29 -14.10
Sortino -9.92 -9.75 -8.34 -10.61 -13.25
Calmar -8.31 -7.34 -6.31 -5.05 -4.05
Omega 0.88 0.89 0.90 0.88 0.86
Max drawdown 6.78% 9.33% 12.61% 17.96% 23.73%
Ulcer index 0.0340 0.0464 0.0612 0.0913 0.1204
Drawdown episodes 3 3 3 3 3
Longest underwater (days) 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8
Recovery factor -0.97 -0.97 -0.97 -0.99 -0.99
VaR 95% -0.713% -1.011% -1.639% -1.974% -2.311%
VaR 99% -1.045% -1.471% -2.149% -2.913% -3.139%
CVaR 95% -0.879% -1.241% -1.894% -2.443% -2.725%
Skew -0.49 -0.29 -0.09 -0.11 0.24
Excess kurtosis 1.26 1.29 1.23 1.15 0.54
Best day 0.38% 0.66% 1.24% 1.43% 1.49%
Worst day -1.05% -1.47% -2.15% -2.91% -3.14%
Positive days 5 5 5 5 4
Negative days 24 24 24 24 25
Round trips 401 399 395 394 394
Winning / losing trades 173 / 228 171 / 228 170 / 225 160 / 234 154 / 240
Trades per day 13.37 13.30 13.17 13.13 13.13
Win rate 43.14% 42.86% 43.04% 40.61% 39.09%
Profit factor 0.38 0.39 0.42 0.39 0.37
Payoff ratio 0.50 0.52 0.56 0.56 0.58
Expectancy -0.0200 -0.0277 -0.0377 -0.0548 -0.0724
Average win 0.0286 0.0417 0.0640 0.0850 0.1084
Average loss 0.0570 0.0797 0.1146 0.1504 0.1885
Average trade -0.0200 -0.0277 -0.0377 -0.0548 -0.0724
Max win streak 13 12 12 11 11
Max loss streak 18 18 18 18 18
Time in market 45.15% 45.24% 45.43% 45.44% 45.49%
Turnover 0.15 0.21 0.30 0.40 0.51
Realised P&L -8.03 -11.05 -14.90 -21.60 -28.53
Unrealised P&L 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fees paid 6.98 9.73 14.20 18.42 23.52
Fee drag 5.72% 7.98% 11.64% 15.10% 19.28%
Final equity 113.97 110.95 107.10 100.40 93.47

5m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return -2.32% -2.92% -2.89% -5.39% -9.92%
CAGR -24.84% -30.29% -30.01% -49.07% -71.94%
Buy and hold 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83%
Edge vs B&H -24.15% -24.75% -24.72% -27.22% -31.75%
Volatility (ann.) 7.23% 10.11% 16.66% 20.29% 20.09%
Sharpe -3.91 -3.52 -2.06 -3.22 -6.23
Sortino -3.86 -3.47 -2.06 -3.19 -6.03
Calmar -8.78 -7.88 -6.37 -6.56 -7.02
Omega 0.94 0.95 0.97 0.95 0.92
Max drawdown 2.83% 3.85% 4.71% 7.48% 10.25%
Ulcer index 0.0123 0.0170 0.0234 0.0340 0.0441
Drawdown episodes 41 48 51 50 8
Longest underwater (days) 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 29.9
Recovery factor -0.82 -0.76 -0.61 -0.72 -0.97
VaR 95% -0.478% -0.705% -1.053% -1.406% -1.522%
VaR 99% -0.860% -1.200% -1.880% -2.405% -2.631%
CVaR 95% -0.669% -0.952% -1.467% -1.906% -2.077%
Skew -0.01 0.08 -0.18 0.21 -0.33
Excess kurtosis 0.91 0.98 1.05 1.20 0.72
Best day 0.64% 0.99% 1.43% 2.16% 1.23%
Worst day -0.86% -1.20% -1.88% -2.41% -2.63%
Positive days 10 10 10 10 9
Negative days 20 20 20 20 21
Round trips 251 249 246 244 238
Winning / losing trades 147 / 104 145 / 104 145 / 101 140 / 104 125 / 113
Trades per day 8.37 8.30 8.20 8.13 7.93
Win rate 58.57% 58.23% 58.94% 57.38% 52.52%
Profit factor 0.65 0.69 0.77 0.71 0.56
Payoff ratio 0.46 0.49 0.54 0.53 0.50
Expectancy -0.0113 -0.0144 -0.0144 -0.0271 -0.0510
Average win 0.0361 0.0537 0.0832 0.1141 0.1219
Average loss 0.0784 0.1093 0.1546 0.2172 0.2424
Average trade -0.0113 -0.0144 -0.0144 -0.0271 -0.0510
Max win streak 13 13 14 11 10
Max loss streak 10 10 10 10 11
Time in market 43.49% 43.51% 43.62% 43.84% 44.05%
Turnover 0.11 0.16 0.23 0.32 0.35
Realised P&L -2.84 -3.58 -3.55 -6.61 -12.14
Unrealised P&L 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.04 0.05
Fees paid 4.49 6.22 9.33 12.28 14.28
Fee drag 3.68% 5.10% 7.65% 10.07% 11.71%
Final equity 119.16 118.42 118.45 115.39 109.86

Every number on this page is read from the run record that produced it — the audit pipeline writes the page and the record together, so the two cannot drift apart.

With the break-even guard WARN · 1 warn

Exits: no exit below average entry plus fees, stops included

The metric set the portfolio dashboard reports, computed per cell so a backtested configuration and a running one read on the same axes. Portfolio-level measures (concentration, pairwise correlation, beta against a benchmark) are omitted: one strategy on one pair has no cross-sectional structure to measure, and printing a null would imply the number exists.

1m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return -0.07% -0.05% -0.13% -0.14% 0.55%
CAGR -0.89% -0.66% -1.54% -1.73% 6.93%
Buy and hold 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88%
Edge vs B&H -21.96% -21.94% -22.01% -22.03% -21.33%
Volatility (ann.) 11.63% 16.21% 29.25% 32.44% 27.40%
Sharpe -0.02 0.04 0.09 0.11 0.38
Sortino -0.02 0.04 0.09 0.10 0.36
Calmar -0.39 -0.21 -0.27 -0.28 1.37
Omega 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
Max drawdown 2.29% 3.18% 5.74% 6.29% 5.07%
Ulcer index 0.0093 0.0129 0.0227 0.0255 0.0214
Drawdown episodes 313 314 368 351 249
Longest underwater (days) 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2
Recovery factor -0.03 -0.02 -0.02 -0.02 0.11
VaR 95% -0.749% -1.045% -1.959% -2.100% -1.686%
VaR 99% -1.249% -1.737% -3.109% -3.443% -2.853%
CVaR 95% -0.999% -1.391% -2.534% -2.772% -2.270%
Skew 0.10 0.10 0.14 0.13 0.19
Excess kurtosis 0.75 0.72 0.77 0.72 0.88
Best day 1.36% 1.90% 3.51% 3.85% 3.32%
Worst day -1.25% -1.74% -3.11% -3.44% -2.85%
Positive days 16 16 16 15 15
Negative days 14 14 14 15 15
Round trips 109 110 128 113 81
Winning / losing trades 109 / 0 110 / 0 128 / 0 113 / 0 81 / 0
Trades per day 3.63 3.67 4.27 3.77 2.70
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 0.0203 0.0286 0.0452 0.0562 0.0748
Average win 0.0203 0.0286 0.0452 0.0562 0.0748
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 0.0203 0.0286 0.0452 0.0562 0.0748
Max win streak 109 110 128 113 81
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 92.11% 92.10% 91.20% 92.01% 94.39%
Turnover 0.02 0.03 0.05 0.05 0.05
Realised P&L 2.21 3.15 5.78 6.35 6.06
Unrealised P&L -2.30 -3.22 -5.94 -6.53 -5.38
Fees paid 2.04 2.90 5.04 6.03 4.89
Fee drag 1.67% 2.37% 4.13% 4.94% 4.01%
Final equity 121.91 121.93 121.84 121.82 122.67

3m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 0.23% 0.21% -0.06% 0.30% 1.37%
CAGR 2.80% 2.53% -0.71% 3.66% 18.04%
Buy and hold 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86%
Edge vs B&H -21.63% -21.65% -21.92% -21.56% -20.49%
Volatility (ann.) 10.99% 15.34% 27.98% 30.97% 26.04%
Sharpe 0.31 0.24 0.11 0.27 0.77
Sortino 0.30 0.23 0.11 0.26 0.75
Calmar 1.28 0.83 -0.13 0.61 3.65
Omega 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.01
Max drawdown 2.19% 3.04% 5.53% 6.01% 4.94%
Ulcer index 0.0088 0.0122 0.0214 0.0241 0.0207
Drawdown episodes 178 198 204 200 159
Longest underwater (days) 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2
Recovery factor 0.10 0.07 -0.01 0.05 0.28
VaR 95% -0.736% -1.028% -1.926% -2.063% -1.648%
VaR 99% -1.165% -1.622% -2.914% -3.214% -2.653%
CVaR 95% -0.951% -1.325% -2.420% -2.639% -2.150%
Skew 0.20 0.20 0.13 0.25 0.29
Excess kurtosis 0.55 0.62 0.73 0.70 0.33
Best day 1.36% 1.90% 3.29% 3.83% 3.16%
Worst day -1.17% -1.62% -2.91% -3.21% -2.65%
Positive days 15 15 16 15 15
Negative days 14 14 13 14 14
Round trips 67 67 74 70 52
Winning / losing trades 67 / 0 67 / 0 74 / 0 70 / 0 52 / 0
Trades per day 2.23 2.23 2.47 2.33 1.73
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 0.0384 0.0517 0.0791 0.0982 0.1357
Average win 0.0384 0.0517 0.0791 0.0982 0.1357
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 0.0384 0.0517 0.0791 0.0982 0.1357
Max win streak 67 67 74 70 52
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 87.88% 87.83% 86.10% 87.86% 90.15%
Turnover 0.02 0.03 0.05 0.06 0.06
Realised P&L 2.57 3.46 5.85 6.88 7.06
Unrealised P&L -2.29 -3.21 -5.92 -6.52 -5.38
Fees paid 1.21 1.69 2.85 3.56 3.15
Fee drag 0.99% 1.39% 2.34% 2.92% 2.58%
Final equity 122.28 122.25 121.93 122.36 123.67

5m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 0.72% 1.25% 3.54% 2.11% 1.35%
CAGR 9.15% 16.27% 52.68% 28.96% 17.70%
Buy and hold 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83%
Edge vs B&H -21.11% -20.58% -18.29% -19.72% -20.48%
Volatility (ann.) 10.49% 14.52% 25.04% 28.84% 24.88%
Sharpe 0.89 1.11 1.81 1.03 0.78
Sortino 0.88 1.10 1.85 1.02 0.77
Calmar 4.28 5.50 11.57 4.99 3.64
Omega 1.01 1.01 1.02 1.01 1.01
Max drawdown 2.14% 2.96% 4.55% 5.81% 4.86%
Ulcer index 0.0084 0.0116 0.0163 0.0229 0.0198
Drawdown episodes 175 184 237 193 155
Longest underwater (days) 8.2 8.2 6.6 8.2 8.2
Recovery factor 0.34 0.42 0.78 0.36 0.28
VaR 95% -0.713% -0.991% -1.857% -1.971% -1.602%
VaR 99% -1.189% -1.646% -2.947% -3.234% -2.701%
CVaR 95% -0.951% -1.318% -2.402% -2.603% -2.151%
Skew 0.09 0.11 0.18 0.10 -0.03
Excess kurtosis 0.73 0.62 1.70 0.65 0.48
Best day 1.31% 1.82% 3.58% 3.60% 2.85%
Worst day -1.19% -1.65% -2.95% -3.23% -2.70%
Positive days 18 18 19 18 17
Negative days 12 12 11 12 13
Round trips 57 61 83 66 47
Winning / losing trades 57 / 0 61 / 0 83 / 0 66 / 0 47 / 0
Trades per day 1.90 2.03 2.77 2.20 1.57
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 0.0540 0.0753 0.0978 0.1359 0.1471
Average win 0.0540 0.0753 0.0978 0.1359 0.1471
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 0.0540 0.0753 0.0978 0.1359 0.1471
Max win streak 57 61 83 66 47
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 82.66% 82.56% 77.44% 82.27% 85.04%
Turnover 0.03 0.04 0.07 0.07 0.06
Realised P&L 3.08 4.59 8.12 8.97 6.92
Unrealised P&L -2.20 -3.07 -3.80 -6.40 -5.27
Fees paid 1.07 1.60 3.26 3.42 2.85
Fee drag 0.88% 1.31% 2.67% 2.80% 2.34%
Final equity 122.87 123.50 126.29 124.54 123.59

Every number on this page is read from the run record that produced it — the audit pipeline writes the page and the record together, so the two cannot drift apart.

What the guard is, and what a better number under it means. The break-even guard refuses any exit below average entry plus fees. It cannot improve a strategy's judgement — it can only stop it selling at a loss, which means holding the position instead. Across the pack that turns a strategy that churned into one that buys and waits: trade counts collapse and time in market rises towards 100%. In a window where the asset itself rose, that reads as a much better return while being strictly less of a strategy.

So read the return next to round trips, time in market and edge vs buy and hold. The last of those is the one that matters: not one strategy in this matrix beat simply holding the asset, in either run.

Ignore the win rate and the profit factor under the guard. Both count closed trades only, and the guard closes nothing at a loss — in all 101 guarded runs the number of losing closed trades is exactly zero. So the win rate goes to 100% and the profit factor becomes undefined for arithmetic reasons, while the losses sit in the position that is still open. The unrealised row is where they went.