← KAMA_Cross

KAMA_Cross — metrics

Unguarded: PASSGuarded: PASSDirectionalgunbot-quant

BTCUSDT · 2026-08-13 01:50 → 2026-09-12 01:50 UTC (30 days) · 0.03% fee + 2 bps slippage · 1,000 quote, one figure for every cell

The same document for both runs of the same measurement — first as the strategy ships, then with the break-even guard. Everything else about the two runs is identical.

As it ships PASS

Exits: the strategy's own exits, stops included

The metric set the portfolio dashboard reports, computed per cell so a backtested configuration and a running one read on the same axes. Portfolio-level measures (concentration, pairwise correlation, beta against a benchmark) are omitted: one strategy on one pair has no cross-sectional structure to measure, and printing a null would imply the number exists.

1m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return -2.75% -4.72% -0.52% -4.90% -7.60%
CAGR -28.81% -44.45% -6.15% -45.71% -61.80%
Buy and hold 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88%
Edge vs B&H -24.64% -26.60% -22.40% -26.78% -29.49%
Volatility (ann.) 1.56% 5.15% 19.06% 25.47% 28.11%
Sharpe -21.79 -11.38 -0.24 -2.27 -3.28
Sortino -8.90 -5.47 -0.17 -2.10 -3.31
Calmar -10.46 -9.42 -0.65 -3.22 -3.65
Omega 0.70 0.86 1.00 0.98 0.98
Max drawdown 2.75% 4.72% 9.43% 14.18% 16.95%
Ulcer index 0.0160 0.0251 0.0480 0.0732 0.0881
Drawdown episodes 1 2 39 43 42
Longest underwater (days) 30.0 29.9 21.7 21.7 21.7
Recovery factor -1.00 -1.00 -0.06 -0.35 -0.45
VaR 95% -0.152% -0.402% -1.223% -1.829% -2.032%
VaR 99% -0.191% -0.408% -1.242% -2.292% -2.901%
CVaR 95% -0.172% -0.405% -1.233% -2.061% -2.467%
Skew 0.73 2.58 2.68 2.06 1.98
Excess kurtosis 1.91 7.80 7.19 4.24 4.20
Best day 0.04% 0.79% 6.33% 6.53% 7.02%
Worst day -0.19% -0.41% -1.24% -2.29% -2.90%
Positive days 2 3 7 6 7
Negative days 28 27 23 24 23
Round trips 241 241 240 240 240
Winning / losing trades 23 / 218 20 / 221 28 / 212 47 / 193 48 / 192
Trades per day 8.03 8.03 8.00 8.00 8.00
Win rate 9.54% 8.30% 11.67% 19.58% 20.00%
Profit factor 0.17 0.37 0.98 0.87 0.83
Payoff ratio 1.65 4.08 7.40 3.58 3.30
Expectancy -0.1143 -0.1957 -0.0241 -0.2075 -0.3205
Average win 0.2530 1.3791 8.6590 7.1584 7.6017
Average loss 0.1531 0.3382 1.1709 2.0013 2.3011
Average trade -0.1143 -0.1957 -0.0241 -0.2075 -0.3205
Max win streak 2 2 2 4 4
Max loss streak 51 38 36 31 31
Time in market 8.71% 15.52% 28.36% 42.28% 46.81%
Turnover 0.04 0.10 0.49 0.72 0.81
Realised P&L -27.55 -47.17 -5.78 -49.81 -76.92
Unrealised P&L 0.00 0.00 0.57 0.84 0.87
Fees paid 17.84 38.80 89.49 118.61 128.78
Fee drag 1.78% 3.88% 8.95% 11.86% 12.88%
Final equity 972.45 952.83 994.80 951.03 923.95

3m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 0.15% -1.36% 3.57% -1.79% -2.85%
CAGR 1.84% -15.38% 53.32% -19.72% -29.62%
Buy and hold 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86%
Edge vs B&H -21.71% -23.22% -18.29% -23.65% -24.71%
Volatility (ann.) 2.43% 4.59% 17.88% 25.49% 28.75%
Sharpe 0.76 -3.62 2.48 -0.73 -1.08
Sortino 0.35 -1.80 1.76 -0.67 -1.04
Calmar 2.71 -7.02 5.91 -1.36 -1.72
Omega 1.02 0.93 1.04 0.99 0.99
Max drawdown 0.68% 2.19% 9.02% 14.48% 17.17%
Ulcer index 0.0036 0.0121 0.0533 0.0747 0.0892
Drawdown episodes 12 11 38 38 39
Longest underwater (days) 21.4 21.4 21.7 21.7 21.7
Recovery factor 0.22 -0.62 0.40 -0.12 -0.17
VaR 95% -0.081% -0.232% -0.908% -1.617% -1.811%
VaR 99% -0.088% -0.240% -0.996% -1.705% -2.186%
CVaR 95% -0.084% -0.236% -0.952% -1.661% -1.998%
Skew 4.65 4.60 2.41 2.20 2.05
Excess kurtosis 20.94 20.68 4.75 4.28 3.81
Best day 1.17% 1.90% 5.13% 6.01% 6.51%
Worst day -0.09% -0.24% -1.00% -1.71% -2.19%
Positive days 4 3 7 10 10
Negative days 25 26 22 19 19
Round trips 80 80 80 80 80
Winning / losing trades 12 / 68 9 / 71 10 / 70 16 / 64 17 / 63
Trades per day 2.67 2.67 2.67 2.67 2.67
Win rate 15.00% 11.25% 12.50% 20.00% 21.25%
Profit factor 1.11 0.62 1.27 0.92 0.90
Payoff ratio 6.29 4.92 8.89 3.70 3.33
Expectancy 0.0187 -0.1704 0.4468 -0.2236 -0.3556
Average win 1.2656 2.5121 16.8109 13.7756 14.8658
Average loss 0.2013 0.5104 1.8909 3.7234 4.4630
Average trade 0.0187 -0.1704 0.4468 -0.2236 -0.3556
Max win streak 2 2 3 5 3
Max loss streak 24 24 24 24 17
Time in market 13.13% 17.47% 28.05% 42.91% 46.84%
Turnover 0.03 0.06 0.30 0.46 0.53
Realised P&L 1.50 -13.63 35.75 -17.89 -28.45
Unrealised P&L -0.00 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00
Fees paid 5.85 11.72 30.61 42.25 46.88
Fee drag 0.58% 1.17% 3.06% 4.23% 4.69%
Final equity 1001.50 986.37 1035.75 982.11 971.55

5m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return -0.95% 0.54% 4.80% 6.00% 9.65%
CAGR -10.97% 6.79% 76.99% 103.20% 206.69%
Buy and hold 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83%
Edge vs B&H -22.78% -21.29% -17.02% -15.83% -12.18%
Volatility (ann.) 1.21% 8.50% 18.48% 26.28% 29.77%
Sharpe -9.57 0.82 3.18 2.83 3.91
Sortino -3.96 0.44 2.37 2.61 4.05
Calmar -11.09 1.86 9.08 13.39 31.89
Omega 0.75 1.03 1.07 1.05 1.06
Max drawdown 0.99% 3.65% 8.48% 7.70% 6.48%
Ulcer index 0.0052 0.0234 0.0491 0.0466 0.0351
Drawdown episodes 3 12 25 26 26
Longest underwater (days) 29.9 21.7 21.7 21.7 21.7
Recovery factor -0.96 0.15 0.57 0.78 1.49
VaR 95% -0.092% -0.167% -0.700% -1.429% -1.522%
VaR 99% -0.113% -0.191% -0.704% -1.505% -1.537%
CVaR 95% -0.103% -0.179% -0.702% -1.467% -1.529%
Skew -0.05 3.41 3.03 1.97 1.92
Excess kurtosis -0.47 11.07 8.02 2.89 2.75
Best day 0.06% 1.63% 5.42% 5.96% 6.47%
Worst day -0.11% -0.19% -0.70% -1.51% -1.54%
Positive days 5 4 6 8 9
Negative days 23 24 22 22 21
Round trips 50 50 49 49 49
Winning / losing trades 5 / 45 6 / 44 6 / 43 11 / 38 12 / 37
Trades per day 1.67 1.67 1.63 1.63 1.63
Win rate 10.00% 12.00% 12.24% 22.45% 24.49%
Profit factor 0.15 1.21 1.54 1.36 1.55
Payoff ratio 1.39 8.85 11.00 4.69 4.78
Expectancy -0.1902 0.1083 0.9805 1.2246 1.9691
Average win 0.3468 5.2688 22.9686 20.6772 22.6576
Average loss 0.2498 0.5954 2.0876 4.4064 4.7407
Average trade -0.1902 0.1083 0.9805 1.2246 1.9691
Max win streak 1 1 2 2 2
Max loss streak 15 21 21 10 10
Time in market 8.99% 16.64% 28.60% 43.11% 47.21%
Turnover 0.01 0.06 0.23 0.39 0.45
Realised P&L -9.51 5.41 48.04 60.01 96.48
Unrealised P&L 0.00 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00
Fees paid 3.24 6.87 16.92 25.25 28.40
Fee drag 0.32% 0.69% 1.69% 2.53% 2.84%
Final equity 990.49 1005.41 1048.04 1060.01 1096.48

Every number on this page is read from the run record that produced it — the audit pipeline writes the page and the record together, so the two cannot drift apart.

With the break-even guard PASS

Exits: no exit below average entry plus fees, stops included

The metric set the portfolio dashboard reports, computed per cell so a backtested configuration and a running one read on the same axes. Portfolio-level measures (concentration, pairwise correlation, beta against a benchmark) are omitted: one strategy on one pair has no cross-sectional structure to measure, and printing a null would imply the number exists.

1m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 0.76% 1.12% 14.00% 16.38% 17.96%
CAGR 9.68% 14.49% 392.35% 533.47% 645.71%
Buy and hold 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88%
Edge vs B&H -21.12% -20.76% -7.88% -5.50% -3.93%
Volatility (ann.) 4.53% 11.97% 29.29% 33.64% 36.73%
Sharpe 2.06 1.19 5.59 5.66 5.65
Sortino 1.92 1.12 5.60 5.67 5.66
Calmar 12.23 5.93 68.77 86.78 96.90
Omega 1.01 1.01 1.03 1.03 1.03
Max drawdown 0.79% 2.45% 5.71% 6.15% 6.66%
Ulcer index 0.0027 0.0080 0.0230 0.0255 0.0276
Drawdown episodes 31 49 91 102 100
Longest underwater (days) 7.0 8.4 8.2 9.5 9.5
Recovery factor 0.96 0.46 2.45 2.67 2.69
VaR 95% -0.355% -0.819% -1.834% -1.992% -2.164%
VaR 99% -0.438% -0.909% -2.426% -2.380% -2.583%
CVaR 95% -0.396% -0.864% -2.130% -2.186% -2.374%
Skew 0.29 0.85 1.68 1.74 1.74
Excess kurtosis 1.58 1.83 2.67 2.82 2.81
Best day 0.57% 1.54% 6.92% 7.76% 8.42%
Worst day -0.44% -0.91% -2.43% -2.38% -2.58%
Positive days 17 17 16 16 16
Negative days 13 13 14 14 14
Round trips 30 25 20 23 23
Winning / losing trades 30 / 0 25 / 0 20 / 0 23 / 0 23 / 0
Trades per day 1.00 0.83 0.67 0.77 0.77
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 0.3382 1.0890 9.3483 9.3726 10.2892
Average win 0.3382 1.0890 9.3483 9.3726 10.2892
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 0.3382 1.0890 9.3483 9.3726 10.2892
Max win streak 30 25 20 23 23
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 87.62% 91.56% 96.09% 95.28% 95.28%
Turnover 0.01 0.03 0.19 0.22 0.24
Realised P&L 10.14 27.23 186.97 215.57 236.65
Unrealised P&L -2.52 -16.04 -46.98 -51.72 -57.10
Fees paid 3.88 7.52 10.86 14.17 15.47
Fee drag 0.39% 0.75% 1.09% 1.42% 1.55%
Final equity 1007.63 1011.18 1139.99 1163.85 1179.56

3m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 1.59% 5.70% 9.35% 12.47% 13.38%
CAGR 21.16% 96.24% 196.55% 317.92% 360.78%
Buy and hold 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86%
Edge vs B&H -20.27% -16.16% -12.51% -9.39% -8.48%
Volatility (ann.) 4.49% 10.94% 31.03% 34.04% 36.87%
Sharpe 4.30 6.22 3.66 4.37 4.33
Sortino 4.51 6.18 3.63 4.38 4.33
Calmar 23.94 33.28 29.90 49.56 52.36
Omega 1.05 1.07 1.03 1.04 1.03
Max drawdown 0.88% 2.89% 6.57% 6.41% 6.89%
Ulcer index 0.0034 0.0170 0.0337 0.0313 0.0337
Drawdown episodes 23 37 54 55 55
Longest underwater (days) 8.4 21.7 21.7 21.7 21.7
Recovery factor 1.80 1.97 1.42 1.94 1.94
VaR 95% -0.198% -0.339% -1.802% -1.959% -2.129%
VaR 99% -0.213% -0.415% -2.896% -3.142% -3.407%
CVaR 95% -0.205% -0.377% -2.349% -2.551% -2.768%
Skew 3.64 2.52 1.24 1.51 1.48
Excess kurtosis 14.43 5.60 1.70 2.46 2.33
Best day 1.55% 2.76% 5.82% 6.88% 7.27%
Worst day -0.21% -0.42% -2.90% -3.14% -3.41%
Positive days 15 15 14 14 14
Negative days 14 14 15 15 15
Round trips 18 18 13 16 15
Winning / losing trades 18 / 0 18 / 0 13 / 0 16 / 0 15 / 0
Trades per day 0.60 0.60 0.43 0.53 0.50
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 1.2516 3.9224 11.1641 11.2973 12.9679
Average win 1.2516 3.9224 11.1641 11.2973 12.9679
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 1.2516 3.9224 11.1641 11.2973 12.9679
Max win streak 18 18 13 16 15
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 81.99% 85.70% 95.73% 94.28% 94.17%
Turnover 0.02 0.07 0.15 0.18 0.19
Realised P&L 22.53 70.60 145.13 180.76 194.52
Unrealised P&L -6.63 -13.63 -51.68 -56.03 -60.74
Fees paid 1.97 4.63 6.17 9.51 10.33
Fee drag 0.20% 0.46% 0.62% 0.95% 1.03%
Final equity 1015.90 1056.97 1093.45 1124.72 1133.78

5m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 2.37% 7.35% 14.14% 14.98% 16.28%
CAGR 32.93% 136.91% 400.08% 446.29% 526.61%
Buy and hold 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83%
Edge vs B&H -19.46% -14.48% -7.68% -6.85% -5.55%
Volatility (ann.) 4.54% 12.24% 25.92% 32.43% 35.16%
Sharpe 6.29 7.11 6.34 5.40 5.40
Sortino 6.74 7.22 6.73 5.61 5.60
Calmar 50.10 49.12 77.65 78.65 85.51
Omega 1.09 1.11 1.08 1.06 1.06
Max drawdown 0.66% 2.79% 5.15% 5.67% 6.16%
Ulcer index 0.0029 0.0144 0.0202 0.0238 0.0256
Drawdown episodes 28 27 34 37 37
Longest underwater (days) 8.5 21.7 13.2 13.2 13.2
Recovery factor 3.60 2.64 2.75 2.64 2.64
VaR 95% -0.171% -0.293% -1.063% -1.954% -2.125%
VaR 99% -0.344% -0.713% -1.761% -2.429% -2.639%
CVaR 95% -0.258% -0.503% -1.412% -2.191% -2.382%
Skew 2.39 2.06 1.95 1.68 1.68
Excess kurtosis 5.17 3.30 3.27 2.70 2.71
Best day 1.27% 2.69% 5.96% 7.01% 7.60%
Worst day -0.34% -0.71% -1.76% -2.43% -2.64%
Positive days 15 14 15 16 16
Negative days 15 16 15 14 14
Round trips 13 12 13 14 14
Winning / losing trades 13 / 0 12 / 0 13 / 0 14 / 0 14 / 0
Trades per day 0.43 0.40 0.43 0.47 0.47
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 2.1426 6.7507 13.1123 14.6258 15.9605
Average win 2.1426 6.7507 13.1123 14.6258 15.9605
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 2.1426 6.7507 13.1123 14.6258 15.9605
Max win streak 13 12 13 14 14
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 76.92% 81.99% 87.29% 86.54% 86.55%
Turnover 0.03 0.08 0.17 0.20 0.22
Realised P&L 27.85 81.01 170.46 204.76 223.45
Unrealised P&L -4.18 -7.54 -29.01 -54.99 -60.64
Fees paid 1.73 3.58 6.97 8.69 9.49
Fee drag 0.17% 0.36% 0.70% 0.87% 0.95%
Final equity 1023.67 1073.46 1141.45 1149.77 1162.80

Every number on this page is read from the run record that produced it — the audit pipeline writes the page and the record together, so the two cannot drift apart.

What the guard is, and what a better number under it means. The break-even guard refuses any exit below average entry plus fees. It cannot improve a strategy's judgement — it can only stop it selling at a loss, which means holding the position instead. Across the pack that turns a strategy that churned into one that buys and waits: trade counts collapse and time in market rises towards 100%. In a window where the asset itself rose, that reads as a much better return while being strictly less of a strategy.

So read the return next to round trips, time in market and edge vs buy and hold. The last of those is the one that matters: not one strategy in this matrix beat simply holding the asset, in either run.

Ignore the win rate and the profit factor under the guard. Both count closed trades only, and the guard closes nothing at a loss — in all 101 guarded runs the number of losing closed trades is exactly zero. So the win rate goes to 100% and the profit factor becomes undefined for arithmetic reasons, while the losses sit in the position that is still open. The unrealised row is where they went.