← KAMA_Trend

KAMA_Trend — metrics

Unguarded: PASSGuarded: PASSDirectionalgunbot-quant

BTCUSDT · 2026-08-13 01:50 → 2026-09-12 01:50 UTC (30 days) · 0.03% fee + 2 bps slippage · 1,000 quote, one figure for every cell

The same document for both runs of the same measurement — first as the strategy ships, then with the break-even guard. Everything else about the two runs is identical.

As it ships PASS

Exits: the strategy's own exits, stops included

The metric set the portfolio dashboard reports, computed per cell so a backtested configuration and a running one read on the same axes. Portfolio-level measures (concentration, pairwise correlation, beta against a benchmark) are omitted: one strategy on one pair has no cross-sectional structure to measure, and printing a null would imply the number exists.

1m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return -15.18% -26.89% -50.46% -65.93% -68.47%
CAGR -86.50% -97.79% -99.98% -100.00% -100.00%
Buy and hold 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88%
Edge vs B&H -37.06% -48.77% -72.34% -87.81% -90.35%
Volatility (ann.) 2.67% 6.63% 18.18% 27.26% 29.79%
Sharpe -75.03 -57.46 -46.92 -47.93 -46.98
Sortino -53.39 -46.46 -42.48 -47.95 -47.70
Calmar -5.70 -3.64 -1.98 -1.52 -1.46
Omega 0.55 0.63 0.72 0.74 0.74
Max drawdown 15.18% 26.89% 50.48% 65.98% 68.51%
Ulcer index 0.0876 0.1560 0.3019 0.4028 0.4191
Drawdown episodes 1 1 2 2 2
Longest underwater (days) 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.9 29.9
Recovery factor -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00
VaR 95% -0.775% -1.508% -3.404% -5.995% -6.682%
VaR 99% -0.816% -1.533% -3.529% -6.133% -6.723%
CVaR 95% -0.796% -1.521% -3.466% -6.064% -6.702%
Skew -0.03 0.31 1.08 0.77 0.61
Excess kurtosis -0.47 -0.08 1.64 0.70 0.32
Best day -0.29% -0.31% 0.41% 1.20% 1.13%
Worst day -0.82% -1.53% -3.53% -6.13% -6.72%
Positive days 0 0 1 2 2
Negative days 30 30 29 28 28
Round trips 1,654 1,654 1,654 1,654 1,654
Winning / losing trades 104 / 1,550 80 / 1,574 98 / 1,556 153 / 1,501 157 / 1,497
Trades per day 55.13 55.13 55.13 55.13 55.13
Win rate 6.29% 4.84% 5.93% 9.25% 9.49%
Profit factor 0.12 0.15 0.25 0.32 0.33
Payoff ratio 1.80 2.94 3.93 3.18 3.19
Expectancy -0.0917 -0.1625 -0.3051 -0.3986 -0.4139
Average win 0.2005 0.5896 1.6913 2.0686 2.1935
Average loss 0.1113 0.2008 0.4308 0.6500 0.6874
Average trade -0.0917 -0.1625 -0.3051 -0.3986 -0.4139
Max win streak 3 2 2 3 2
Max loss streak 166 112 116 56 56
Time in market 27.05% 33.52% 43.07% 50.98% 51.87%
Turnover 0.19 0.36 0.84 1.29 1.37
Realised P&L -151.74 -268.81 -504.56 -659.20 -684.59
Unrealised P&L -0.03 -0.04 -0.05 -0.07 -0.07
Fees paid 96.71 172.70 317.58 443.89 468.44
Fee drag 9.67% 17.27% 31.76% 44.39% 46.84%
Final equity 848.23 731.14 495.39 340.73 315.35

3m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return -3.50% -6.28% -14.77% -25.70% -26.91%
CAGR -35.19% -54.58% -85.70% -97.31% -97.79%
Buy and hold 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86%
Edge vs B&H -25.36% -28.14% -36.63% -47.56% -48.77%
Volatility (ann.) 3.71% 7.44% 18.78% 25.53% 27.90%
Sharpe -11.68 -10.57 -10.26 -14.03 -13.53
Sortino -12.39 -11.03 -10.42 -14.80 -14.34
Calmar -8.23 -6.96 -4.19 -3.24 -3.08
Omega 0.81 0.85 0.88 0.86 0.87
Max drawdown 4.27% 7.84% 20.46% 29.99% 31.75%
Ulcer index 0.0214 0.0411 0.1094 0.1593 0.1688
Drawdown episodes 9 19 33 25 26
Longest underwater (days) 22.7 22.7 21.7 21.7 21.7
Recovery factor -0.82 -0.80 -0.72 -0.86 -0.85
VaR 95% -0.346% -0.715% -1.870% -2.905% -3.078%
VaR 99% -0.384% -0.774% -2.031% -3.116% -3.277%
CVaR 95% -0.365% -0.744% -1.951% -3.011% -3.177%
Skew 3.54 3.02 2.18 1.79 1.76
Excess kurtosis 13.11 8.69 4.36 3.01 2.82
Best day 1.47% 2.66% 4.90% 4.89% 5.38%
Worst day -0.38% -0.77% -2.03% -3.12% -3.28%
Positive days 2 2 4 3 4
Negative days 27 27 25 26 25
Round trips 568 568 568 568 568
Winning / losing trades 45 / 523 36 / 532 37 / 531 54 / 514 55 / 513
Trades per day 18.93 18.93 18.93 18.93 18.93
Win rate 7.92% 6.34% 6.51% 9.51% 9.68%
Profit factor 0.52 0.55 0.60 0.55 0.56
Payoff ratio 6.05 8.20 8.61 5.28 5.26
Expectancy -0.0616 -0.1105 -0.2600 -0.4523 -0.4736
Average win 0.8442 2.1731 5.9911 5.9181 6.3316
Average loss 0.1396 0.2651 0.6956 1.1215 1.2032
Average trade -0.0616 -0.1105 -0.2600 -0.4523 -0.4736
Max win streak 2 2 2 2 2
Max loss streak 66 69 69 44 44
Time in market 29.97% 37.31% 45.74% 51.67% 52.14%
Turnover 0.11 0.22 0.59 0.90 0.97
Realised P&L -35.00 -62.78 -147.67 -256.88 -269.02
Unrealised P&L -0.02 -0.03 -0.05 -0.08 -0.08
Fees paid 34.37 64.82 136.90 209.96 223.99
Fee drag 3.44% 6.48% 13.69% 21.00% 22.40%
Final equity 964.98 937.19 852.28 743.04 730.90

5m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return -2.49% -5.77% -7.85% -15.63% -16.42%
CAGR -26.38% -51.49% -63.03% -87.36% -88.72%
Buy and hold 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83%
Edge vs B&H -24.31% -27.60% -29.68% -37.46% -38.25%
Volatility (ann.) 3.39% 7.52% 19.42% 26.89% 29.30%
Sharpe -9.01 -9.59 -5.03 -7.56 -7.30
Sortino -7.71 -7.82 -5.16 -8.28 -8.00
Calmar -10.13 -8.44 -4.32 -3.79 -3.61
Omega 0.81 0.80 0.92 0.90 0.90
Max drawdown 2.60% 6.10% 14.58% 23.07% 24.60%
Ulcer index 0.0149 0.0364 0.0779 0.1214 0.1300
Drawdown episodes 8 8 21 26 25
Longest underwater (days) 21.7 21.7 21.7 21.7 21.7
Recovery factor -0.95 -0.95 -0.54 -0.68 -0.67
VaR 95% -0.246% -0.481% -1.381% -2.325% -2.488%
VaR 99% -0.285% -0.527% -1.430% -2.382% -2.892%
CVaR 95% -0.265% -0.504% -1.405% -2.353% -2.690%
Skew 2.80 3.30 2.39 1.96 1.95
Excess kurtosis 7.21 11.36 5.67 3.26 3.29
Best day 0.74% 1.71% 4.94% 5.25% 5.77%
Worst day -0.29% -0.53% -1.43% -2.38% -2.89%
Positive days 3 3 6 5 6
Negative days 27 27 24 25 24
Round trips 348 348 348 348 348
Winning / losing trades 28 / 320 23 / 325 20 / 328 31 / 317 33 / 315
Trades per day 11.60 11.60 11.60 11.60 11.60
Win rate 8.05% 6.61% 5.75% 8.91% 9.48%
Profit factor 0.50 0.40 0.69 0.64 0.65
Payoff ratio 5.75 5.72 11.40 6.56 6.22
Expectancy -0.0714 -0.1659 -0.2257 -0.4493 -0.4718
Average win 0.8986 1.7070 8.9442 9.0379 9.3132
Average loss 0.1563 0.2984 0.7848 1.3770 1.4969
Average trade -0.0714 -0.1659 -0.2257 -0.4493 -0.4718
Max win streak 2 2 1 2 2
Max loss streak 44 46 50 98 94
Time in market 30.44% 35.37% 45.96% 52.30% 52.30%
Turnover 0.08 0.14 0.44 0.72 0.78
Realised P&L -24.85 -57.72 -78.53 -156.35 -164.18
Unrealised P&L -0.00 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00
Fees paid 20.54 37.27 83.65 137.58 147.15
Fee drag 2.05% 3.73% 8.36% 13.76% 14.72%
Final equity 975.15 942.28 921.47 843.65 835.82

Every number on this page is read from the run record that produced it — the audit pipeline writes the page and the record together, so the two cannot drift apart.

With the break-even guard PASS

Exits: no exit below average entry plus fees, stops included

The metric set the portfolio dashboard reports, computed per cell so a backtested configuration and a running one read on the same axes. Portfolio-level measures (concentration, pairwise correlation, beta against a benchmark) are omitted: one strategy on one pair has no cross-sectional structure to measure, and printing a null would imply the number exists.

1m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 2.46% 4.96% 8.73% 13.08% 14.14%
CAGR 34.42% 80.17% 176.71% 346.28% 400.08%
Buy and hold 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88%
Edge vs B&H -19.42% -16.92% -13.16% -8.80% -7.74%
Volatility (ann.) 5.75% 11.88% 29.89% 35.51% 38.51%
Sharpe 5.18 5.02 3.55 4.39 4.37
Sortino 5.89 5.24 3.54 4.36 4.35
Calmar 37.09 36.91 30.18 54.50 58.09
Omega 1.03 1.03 1.02 1.02 1.02
Max drawdown 0.93% 2.17% 5.86% 6.35% 6.89%
Ulcer index 0.0036 0.0095 0.0265 0.0289 0.0313
Drawdown episodes 36 43 65 79 85
Longest underwater (days) 13.3 18.0 9.8 9.6 9.6
Recovery factor 2.65 2.28 1.49 2.06 2.05
VaR 95% -0.204% -0.731% -1.830% -1.990% -2.164%
VaR 99% -0.244% -1.253% -3.090% -3.354% -3.638%
CVaR 95% -0.224% -0.992% -2.460% -2.672% -2.901%
Skew 3.20 1.45 0.84 1.11 1.12
Excess kurtosis 11.89 3.48 1.05 1.39 1.37
Best day 1.67% 2.67% 4.34% 6.30% 6.79%
Worst day -0.24% -1.25% -3.09% -3.35% -3.64%
Positive days 16 17 16 16 15
Negative days 14 13 14 14 15
Round trips 39 31 24 30 31
Winning / losing trades 39 / 0 31 / 0 24 / 0 30 / 0 31 / 0
Trades per day 1.30 1.03 0.80 1.00 1.03
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 0.7492 1.8613 5.8163 6.2855 6.6120
Average win 0.7492 1.8613 5.8163 6.2855 6.6120
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 0.7492 1.8613 5.8163 6.2855 6.6120
Max win streak 39 31 24 30 31
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 97.47% 98.38% 99.01% 98.90% 99.03%
Turnover 0.03 0.06 0.14 0.19 0.20
Realised P&L 29.22 57.70 139.59 188.56 204.97
Unrealised P&L -4.61 -8.12 -52.34 -57.75 -63.53
Fees paid 4.71 8.88 13.27 18.45 20.79
Fee drag 0.47% 0.89% 1.33% 1.84% 2.08%
Final equity 1024.61 1049.58 1087.25 1130.82 1141.45

3m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 2.09% 3.51% 10.87% 13.63% 14.71%
CAGR 28.59% 52.08% 250.95% 373.29% 431.13%
Buy and hold 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86%
Edge vs B&H -19.77% -18.35% -10.99% -8.23% -7.15%
Volatility (ann.) 4.89% 10.61% 29.55% 35.55% 38.61%
Sharpe 5.17 4.00 4.40 4.55 4.52
Sortino 5.58 4.16 4.40 4.56 4.53
Calmar 32.80 23.12 41.70 60.02 63.89
Omega 1.05 1.03 1.04 1.04 1.04
Max drawdown 0.87% 2.25% 6.02% 6.22% 6.75%
Ulcer index 0.0035 0.0101 0.0283 0.0298 0.0323
Drawdown episodes 33 36 50 57 57
Longest underwater (days) 9.7 18.0 18.0 9.7 9.7
Recovery factor 2.40 1.56 1.81 2.19 2.18
VaR 95% -0.213% -0.720% -1.800% -1.958% -2.129%
VaR 99% -0.222% -1.172% -2.892% -3.141% -3.407%
CVaR 95% -0.217% -0.946% -2.346% -2.550% -2.768%
Skew 3.56 2.39 1.68 1.60 1.57
Excess kurtosis 14.01 7.75 3.10 2.67 2.62
Best day 1.78% 3.28% 6.39% 7.26% 7.87%
Worst day -0.22% -1.17% -2.89% -3.14% -3.41%
Positive days 15 14 15 15 15
Negative days 14 15 14 14 14
Round trips 22 19 16 20 20
Winning / losing trades 22 / 0 19 / 0 16 / 0 20 / 0 20 / 0
Trades per day 0.73 0.63 0.53 0.67 0.67
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 1.2560 2.5559 10.0935 9.6804 10.5106
Average win 1.2560 2.5559 10.0935 9.6804 10.5106
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 1.2560 2.5559 10.0935 9.6804 10.5106
Max win streak 22 19 16 20 20
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 96.03% 97.88% 99.33% 99.24% 99.18%
Turnover 0.03 0.05 0.16 0.19 0.21
Realised P&L 27.63 48.56 161.50 193.61 210.21
Unrealised P&L -6.75 -13.51 -52.80 -57.33 -63.11
Fees paid 2.56 4.88 9.19 12.45 13.67
Fee drag 0.26% 0.49% 0.92% 1.25% 1.37%
Final equity 1020.88 1035.05 1108.69 1136.28 1147.10

5m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 0.41% 5.94% 10.17% 17.28% 19.35%
CAGR 5.14% 101.89% 224.99% 595.38% 760.44%
Buy and hold 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83%
Edge vs B&H -21.42% -15.88% -11.66% -4.55% -2.48%
Volatility (ann.) 3.48% 11.45% 29.88% 33.61% 36.29%
Sharpe 1.46 6.20 4.09 5.94 6.11
Sortino 1.43 6.61 4.21 6.28 6.48
Calmar 8.62 36.15 34.93 107.65 126.60
Omega 1.02 1.08 1.04 1.06 1.07
Max drawdown 0.60% 2.82% 6.44% 5.53% 6.01%
Ulcer index 0.0027 0.0139 0.0316 0.0258 0.0276
Drawdown episodes 26 30 38 47 46
Longest underwater (days) 10.0 21.7 21.7 9.6 9.6
Recovery factor 0.69 2.11 1.58 3.12 3.22
VaR 95% -0.187% -0.702% -1.754% -1.909% -2.075%
VaR 99% -0.228% -1.197% -2.952% -3.205% -3.477%
CVaR 95% -0.207% -0.950% -2.353% -2.557% -2.776%
Skew 0.77 2.22 1.54 1.57 1.56
Excess kurtosis 0.28 6.52 2.84 2.61 2.56
Best day 0.40% 3.42% 6.23% 7.24% 7.91%
Worst day -0.23% -1.20% -2.95% -3.21% -3.48%
Positive days 16 16 16 16 16
Negative days 14 14 14 14 14
Round trips 16 13 12 14 14
Winning / losing trades 16 / 0 13 / 0 12 / 0 14 / 0 14 / 0
Trades per day 0.53 0.43 0.40 0.47 0.47
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 0.5251 5.1693 12.7381 14.5297 16.0477
Average win 0.5251 5.1693 12.7381 14.5297 16.0477
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 0.5251 5.1693 12.7381 14.5297 16.0477
Max win streak 16 13 12 14 14
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 92.88% 96.40% 99.33% 98.95% 98.94%
Turnover 0.01 0.07 0.15 0.20 0.22
Realised P&L 8.40 67.20 152.86 203.42 224.67
Unrealised P&L -4.28 -7.76 -51.14 -30.62 -31.16
Fees paid 1.66 3.63 6.86 8.84 9.67
Fee drag 0.17% 0.36% 0.69% 0.88% 0.97%
Final equity 1004.13 1059.44 1101.72 1172.80 1193.51

Every number on this page is read from the run record that produced it — the audit pipeline writes the page and the record together, so the two cannot drift apart.

What the guard is, and what a better number under it means. The break-even guard refuses any exit below average entry plus fees. It cannot improve a strategy's judgement — it can only stop it selling at a loss, which means holding the position instead. Across the pack that turns a strategy that churned into one that buys and waits: trade counts collapse and time in market rises towards 100%. In a window where the asset itself rose, that reads as a much better return while being strictly less of a strategy.

So read the return next to round trips, time in market and edge vs buy and hold. The last of those is the one that matters: not one strategy in this matrix beat simply holding the asset, in either run.

Ignore the win rate and the profit factor under the guard. Both count closed trades only, and the guard closes nothing at a loss — in all 101 guarded runs the number of losing closed trades is exactly zero. So the win rate goes to 100% and the profit factor becomes undefined for arithmetic reasons, while the losses sit in the position that is still open. The unrealised row is where they went.