← KST_Signal

KST_Signal — metrics

Unguarded: PASSGuarded: PASSDirectionalgunbot-quant

BTCUSDT · 2026-08-13 01:50 → 2026-09-12 01:50 UTC (30 days) · 0.03% fee + 2 bps slippage · 1,000 quote, one figure for every cell

The same document for both runs of the same measurement — first as the strategy ships, then with the break-even guard. Everything else about the two runs is identical.

As it ships PASS

Exits: the strategy's own exits, stops included

The metric set the portfolio dashboard reports, computed per cell so a backtested configuration and a running one read on the same axes. Portfolio-level measures (concentration, pairwise correlation, beta against a benchmark) are omitted: one strategy on one pair has no cross-sectional structure to measure, and printing a null would imply the number exists.

1m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return -11.06% -21.01% -42.82% -57.79% -61.33%
CAGR -75.99% -94.33% -99.89% -100.00% -100.00%
Buy and hold 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88%
Edge vs B&H -32.95% -42.89% -64.71% -79.67% -83.21%
Volatility (ann.) 3.16% 6.95% 16.42% 23.80% 26.29%
Sharpe -45.10 -41.24 -41.34 -43.97 -43.84
Sortino -33.34 -35.07 -37.80 -43.67 -44.34
Calmar -6.87 -4.49 -2.33 -1.73 -1.63
Omega 0.67 0.71 0.73 0.74 0.74
Max drawdown 11.06% 21.01% 42.82% 57.79% 61.33%
Ulcer index 0.0625 0.1194 0.2498 0.3506 0.3733
Drawdown episodes 1 1 1 1 1
Longest underwater (days) 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0
Recovery factor -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00
VaR 95% -0.547% -1.145% -2.977% -4.568% -4.865%
VaR 99% -0.598% -1.365% -3.314% -5.310% -5.291%
CVaR 95% -0.573% -1.255% -3.146% -4.939% -5.078%
Skew 2.22 2.12 1.50 1.49 1.57
Excess kurtosis 5.20 4.85 2.71 2.62 2.45
Best day 0.25% 0.56% 1.19% 1.75% 1.53%
Worst day -0.60% -1.36% -3.31% -5.31% -5.29%
Positive days 2 2 2 2 2
Negative days 28 28 28 28 28
Round trips 1,207 1,207 1,207 1,207 1,207
Winning / losing trades 117 / 1,090 119 / 1,088 143 / 1,064 213 / 994 218 / 989
Trades per day 40.23 40.23 40.23 40.23 40.23
Win rate 9.69% 9.86% 11.85% 17.65% 18.06%
Profit factor 0.23 0.25 0.31 0.34 0.34
Payoff ratio 2.14 2.24 2.27 1.59 1.55
Expectancy -0.0917 -0.1741 -0.3548 -0.4788 -0.5081
Average win 0.2814 0.5746 1.3159 1.3982 1.4576
Average loss 0.1317 0.2560 0.5793 0.8810 0.9414
Average trade -0.0917 -0.1741 -0.3548 -0.4788 -0.5081
Max win streak 5 3 3 5 5
Max loss streak 120 104 89 70 70
Time in market 30.90% 38.14% 43.78% 47.23% 48.26%
Turnover 0.18 0.35 0.80 1.17 1.25
Realised P&L -110.64 -210.13 -428.25 -577.88 -613.25
Unrealised P&L 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.00 -0.00
Fees paid 77.78 145.31 294.12 388.67 412.17
Fee drag 7.78% 14.53% 29.41% 38.87% 41.22%
Final equity 889.36 789.87 571.75 422.12 386.75

3m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return -3.03% -5.09% -13.44% -21.24% -23.72%
CAGR -31.22% -47.01% -82.72% -94.52% -96.29%
Buy and hold 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86%
Edge vs B&H -24.89% -26.95% -35.30% -43.10% -45.58%
Volatility (ann.) 3.26% 7.01% 15.95% 22.46% 24.63%
Sharpe -11.47 -9.03 -10.93 -12.82 -13.25
Sortino -9.84 -8.81 -11.00 -13.29 -13.83
Calmar -7.78 -6.62 -4.74 -3.67 -3.39
Omega 0.84 0.88 0.87 0.87 0.86
Max drawdown 4.01% 7.10% 17.47% 25.72% 28.42%
Ulcer index 0.0208 0.0367 0.0880 0.1289 0.1422
Drawdown episodes 11 17 21 22 22
Longest underwater (days) 21.7 21.7 21.7 21.7 21.7
Recovery factor -0.75 -0.72 -0.77 -0.83 -0.83
VaR 95% -0.273% -0.506% -1.201% -2.263% -2.553%
VaR 99% -0.276% -0.566% -1.464% -2.489% -2.843%
CVaR 95% -0.274% -0.536% -1.333% -2.376% -2.698%
Skew 4.02 3.63 3.32 2.73 2.54
Excess kurtosis 16.72 13.98 11.96 8.88 8.02
Best day 1.24% 2.52% 4.62% 5.63% 6.24%
Worst day -0.28% -0.57% -1.46% -2.49% -2.84%
Positive days 3 3 3 4 4
Negative days 26 26 26 25 25
Round trips 397 397 397 397 397
Winning / losing trades 63 / 334 68 / 329 72 / 325 95 / 302 97 / 300
Trades per day 13.23 13.23 13.23 13.23 13.23
Win rate 15.87% 17.13% 18.14% 23.93% 24.43%
Profit factor 0.50 0.59 0.56 0.58 0.57
Payoff ratio 2.67 2.84 2.52 1.83 1.77
Expectancy -0.0763 -0.1281 -0.3384 -0.5350 -0.5975
Average win 0.4881 1.0601 2.3608 3.0516 3.2653
Average loss 0.1827 0.3737 0.9364 1.6632 1.8464
Average trade -0.0763 -0.1281 -0.3384 -0.5350 -0.5975
Max win streak 3 3 3 4 4
Max loss streak 33 30 21 19 19
Time in market 36.44% 43.90% 47.61% 49.65% 49.83%
Turnover 0.09 0.20 0.47 0.79 0.87
Realised P&L -30.29 -50.86 -134.36 -212.38 -237.19
Unrealised P&L 0.00 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00
Fees paid 26.11 50.59 118.09 172.46 188.69
Fee drag 2.61% 5.06% 11.81% 17.25% 18.87%
Final equity 969.71 949.14 865.64 787.62 762.81

5m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return -1.69% -3.50% -3.84% -6.07% -8.43%
CAGR -18.72% -35.19% -37.91% -53.34% -65.77%
Buy and hold 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83%
Edge vs B&H -23.52% -25.33% -25.67% -27.90% -30.26%
Volatility (ann.) 3.69% 7.67% 17.05% 22.28% 24.65%
Sharpe -5.59 -5.62 -2.71 -3.31 -4.23
Sortino -4.68 -5.07 -2.94 -3.62 -4.57
Calmar -7.67 -7.08 -3.27 -3.65 -3.78
Omega 0.88 0.89 0.95 0.95 0.94
Max drawdown 2.44% 4.97% 11.58% 14.62% 17.42%
Ulcer index 0.0146 0.0295 0.0576 0.0712 0.0861
Drawdown episodes 9 7 17 18 18
Longest underwater (days) 21.7 21.7 21.7 21.7 21.7
Recovery factor -0.69 -0.70 -0.33 -0.42 -0.48
VaR 95% -0.254% -0.391% -1.235% -1.707% -2.366%
VaR 99% -0.265% -0.454% -1.278% -1.934% -2.460%
CVaR 95% -0.259% -0.423% -1.257% -1.821% -2.413%
Skew 2.92 3.11 2.39 1.81 1.56
Excess kurtosis 8.65 9.39 6.06 3.35 2.63
Best day 0.85% 1.74% 5.06% 5.43% 5.57%
Worst day -0.26% -0.45% -1.28% -1.93% -2.46%
Positive days 4 2 7 6 8
Negative days 26 28 23 24 22
Round trips 229 229 229 229 229
Winning / losing trades 34 / 195 33 / 196 36 / 193 54 / 175 53 / 176
Trades per day 7.63 7.63 7.63 7.63 7.63
Win rate 14.85% 14.41% 15.72% 23.58% 23.14%
Profit factor 0.60 0.58 0.83 0.82 0.78
Payoff ratio 3.42 3.44 4.47 2.66 2.60
Expectancy -0.0737 -0.1529 -0.1678 -0.2652 -0.3683
Average win 0.7312 1.4590 5.3223 5.1838 5.7213
Average loss 0.2141 0.4243 1.1918 1.9466 2.2021
Average trade -0.0737 -0.1529 -0.1678 -0.2652 -0.3683
Max win streak 3 3 3 3 3
Max loss streak 25 30 23 15 15
Time in market 36.69% 44.08% 49.68% 50.58% 50.94%
Turnover 0.07 0.13 0.42 0.62 0.69
Realised P&L -16.89 -35.02 -38.42 -60.73 -84.34
Unrealised P&L 0.00 0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.00
Fees paid 14.62 27.77 71.94 107.66 118.48
Fee drag 1.46% 2.78% 7.19% 10.77% 11.85%
Final equity 983.11 964.98 961.58 939.27 915.66

Every number on this page is read from the run record that produced it — the audit pipeline writes the page and the record together, so the two cannot drift apart.

With the break-even guard PASS

Exits: no exit below average entry plus fees, stops included

The metric set the portfolio dashboard reports, computed per cell so a backtested configuration and a running one read on the same axes. Portfolio-level measures (concentration, pairwise correlation, beta against a benchmark) are omitted: one strategy on one pair has no cross-sectional structure to measure, and printing a null would imply the number exists.

1m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 1.22% 1.38% 3.08% 11.37% 13.00%
CAGR 15.93% 18.20% 44.70% 270.58% 342.48%
Buy and hold 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88%
Edge vs B&H -20.66% -20.50% -18.80% -10.51% -8.88%
Volatility (ann.) 3.84% 9.94% 25.78% 31.87% 34.71%
Sharpe 3.87 1.73 1.56 4.27 4.46
Sortino 3.88 1.70 1.51 4.29 4.48
Calmar 26.72 7.64 7.63 47.80 56.27
Omega 1.02 1.01 1.01 1.02 1.02
Max drawdown 0.60% 2.38% 5.86% 5.66% 6.09%
Ulcer index 0.0028 0.0084 0.0224 0.0247 0.0262
Drawdown episodes 47 39 41 57 57
Longest underwater (days) 9.6 9.7 9.8 9.6 9.6
Recovery factor 2.05 0.58 0.53 2.01 2.14
VaR 95% -0.175% -0.518% -1.402% -1.990% -2.164%
VaR 99% -0.302% -0.566% -1.814% -3.353% -3.638%
CVaR 95% -0.238% -0.542% -1.608% -2.671% -2.901%
Skew 1.29 1.46 0.88 0.93 0.95
Excess kurtosis 1.59 2.44 0.78 0.80 0.82
Best day 0.59% 1.37% 3.28% 4.78% 5.16%
Worst day -0.30% -0.57% -1.81% -3.35% -3.64%
Positive days 16 16 16 16 16
Negative days 14 14 14 14 14
Round trips 50 41 41 45 44
Winning / losing trades 50 / 0 41 / 0 41 / 0 45 / 0 44 / 0
Trades per day 1.67 1.37 1.37 1.50 1.47
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 0.3345 0.8114 1.9643 3.2015 3.6560
Average win 0.3345 0.8114 1.9643 3.2015 3.6560
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 0.3345 0.8114 1.9643 3.2015 3.6560
Max win streak 50 41 41 45 44
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 97.74% 98.37% 98.34% 98.20% 98.22%
Turnover 0.02 0.03 0.08 0.14 0.16
Realised P&L 16.72 33.27 80.54 144.07 160.86
Unrealised P&L -4.50 -19.43 -49.70 -30.40 -30.84
Fees paid 4.64 7.94 18.60 25.26 27.10
Fee drag 0.46% 0.79% 1.86% 2.53% 2.71%
Final equity 1012.22 1013.84 1030.83 1113.67 1130.02

3m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 1.77% 3.68% 7.00% 9.63% 10.61%
CAGR 23.79% 55.18% 127.83% 206.20% 240.99%
Buy and hold 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86%
Edge vs B&H -20.09% -18.18% -14.86% -12.23% -11.25%
Volatility (ann.) 4.12% 7.94% 21.76% 30.28% 34.18%
Sharpe 5.20 5.57 3.89 3.85 3.76
Sortino 5.46 5.95 3.98 3.87 3.76
Calmar 31.60 37.56 24.60 32.30 34.34
Omega 1.05 1.05 1.03 1.03 1.03
Max drawdown 0.75% 1.47% 5.20% 6.38% 7.02%
Ulcer index 0.0032 0.0061 0.0208 0.0277 0.0309
Drawdown episodes 31 32 37 45 46
Longest underwater (days) 8.2 9.7 13.4 15.0 8.2
Recovery factor 2.35 2.50 1.35 1.51 1.51
VaR 95% -0.259% -0.507% -1.800% -1.958% -2.129%
VaR 99% -0.425% -0.828% -2.892% -3.141% -3.407%
CVaR 95% -0.342% -0.668% -2.346% -2.549% -2.768%
Skew 2.86 2.89 1.63 1.55 1.49
Excess kurtosis 10.35 10.15 4.45 3.65 3.29
Best day 1.44% 2.90% 5.66% 6.97% 7.62%
Worst day -0.42% -0.83% -2.89% -3.14% -3.41%
Positive days 15 15 15 15 15
Negative days 14 14 14 14 14
Round trips 29 29 26 28 27
Winning / losing trades 29 / 0 29 / 0 26 / 0 28 / 0 27 / 0
Trades per day 0.97 0.97 0.87 0.93 0.90
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 0.7712 1.5501 3.8780 5.5668 6.3573
Average win 0.7712 1.5501 3.8780 5.5668 6.3573
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 0.7712 1.5501 3.8780 5.5668 6.3573
Max win streak 29 29 26 28 27
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 95.78% 96.03% 96.42% 96.04% 96.03%
Turnover 0.02 0.04 0.10 0.16 0.17
Realised P&L 22.36 44.95 100.83 155.87 171.65
Unrealised P&L -4.67 -8.18 -30.81 -59.54 -65.57
Fees paid 2.69 5.44 13.08 16.94 17.80
Fee drag 0.27% 0.54% 1.31% 1.69% 1.78%
Final equity 1017.70 1036.77 1070.02 1096.33 1106.07

5m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 2.52% 4.68% 11.27% 13.99% 14.07%
CAGR 35.37% 74.47% 266.76% 391.84% 396.38%
Buy and hold 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83%
Edge vs B&H -19.31% -17.15% -10.56% -7.84% -7.75%
Volatility (ann.) 4.84% 9.60% 17.65% 28.03% 31.99%
Sharpe 6.28 5.84 7.45 5.82 5.17
Sortino 7.10 6.36 8.27 6.23 5.45
Calmar 37.33 35.98 88.63 68.12 63.24
Omega 1.09 1.08 1.10 1.06 1.06
Max drawdown 0.95% 2.07% 3.01% 5.75% 6.27%
Ulcer index 0.0047 0.0107 0.0120 0.0237 0.0263
Drawdown episodes 31 27 32 41 37
Longest underwater (days) 21.7 21.7 9.6 18.5 18.5
Recovery factor 2.66 2.26 3.75 2.43 2.25
VaR 95% -0.252% -0.494% -1.021% -1.908% -2.421%
VaR 99% -0.433% -0.845% -1.735% -3.204% -3.477%
CVaR 95% -0.343% -0.669% -1.378% -2.556% -2.949%
Skew 2.67 2.72 2.27 1.63 1.42
Excess kurtosis 8.06 8.07 5.69 3.16 2.93
Best day 1.62% 3.15% 5.56% 7.10% 7.69%
Worst day -0.43% -0.84% -1.73% -3.20% -3.48%
Positive days 18 16 19 18 18
Negative days 12 14 11 12 12
Round trips 29 27 26 28 26
Winning / losing trades 29 / 0 27 / 0 26 / 0 28 / 0 26 / 0
Trades per day 0.97 0.90 0.87 0.93 0.87
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 1.0292 2.0359 4.9226 6.1286 6.6340
Average win 1.0292 2.0359 4.9226 6.1286 6.6340
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 1.0292 2.0359 4.9226 6.1286 6.6340
Max win streak 29 27 26 28 26
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 93.63% 94.72% 95.13% 94.39% 95.01%
Turnover 0.03 0.05 0.13 0.17 0.17
Realised P&L 29.85 54.97 127.99 171.60 172.48
Unrealised P&L -4.65 -8.16 -15.27 -31.71 -31.74
Fees paid 2.66 4.97 11.13 16.22 16.46
Fee drag 0.27% 0.50% 1.11% 1.62% 1.65%
Final equity 1025.20 1046.81 1112.72 1139.89 1140.75

Every number on this page is read from the run record that produced it — the audit pipeline writes the page and the record together, so the two cannot drift apart.

What the guard is, and what a better number under it means. The break-even guard refuses any exit below average entry plus fees. It cannot improve a strategy's judgement — it can only stop it selling at a loss, which means holding the position instead. Across the pack that turns a strategy that churned into one that buys and waits: trade counts collapse and time in market rises towards 100%. In a window where the asset itself rose, that reads as a much better return while being strictly less of a strategy.

So read the return next to round trips, time in market and edge vs buy and hold. The last of those is the one that matters: not one strategy in this matrix beat simply holding the asset, in either run.

Ignore the win rate and the profit factor under the guard. Both count closed trades only, and the guard closes nothing at a loss — in all 101 guarded runs the number of losing closed trades is exactly zero. So the win rate goes to 100% and the profit factor becomes undefined for arithmetic reasons, while the losses sit in the position that is still open. The unrealised row is where they went.