← Keltner_MM

Keltner_MM — metrics

Unguarded: PASSGuarded: PASSMM-DCAgunbot-quant

BTCUSDT · 2026-08-13 01:50 → 2026-09-12 01:50 UTC (30 days) · 0.03% fee + 2 bps slippage · 122 quote, one figure for every cell

The same document for both runs of the same measurement — first as the strategy ships, then with the break-even guard. Everything else about the two runs is identical.

As it ships PASS

Exits: the strategy's own exits, stops included

The metric set the portfolio dashboard reports, computed per cell so a backtested configuration and a running one read on the same axes. Portfolio-level measures (concentration, pairwise correlation, beta against a benchmark) are omitted: one strategy on one pair has no cross-sectional structure to measure, and printing a null would imply the number exists.

1m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return -5.56% -15.26% -40.61% -70.90% -59.04%
CAGR -50.15% -86.66% -99.82% -100.00% -100.00%
Buy and hold 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88%
Edge vs B&H -27.44% -37.14% -62.49% -92.78% -80.93%
Volatility (ann.) 3.68% 7.08% 14.46% 19.58% 19.09%
Sharpe -18.90 -28.40 -43.77 -76.61 -56.80
Sortino -15.94 -24.78 -38.89 -66.56 -48.96
Calmar -8.89 -5.66 -2.46 -1.41 -1.69
Omega 0.69 0.69 0.67 0.57 0.59
Max drawdown 5.64% 15.32% 40.61% 70.92% 59.05%
Ulcer index 0.0317 0.0858 0.2284 0.4897 0.4820
Drawdown episodes 1 1 1 1 1
Longest underwater (days) 29.8 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0
Recovery factor -0.99 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00
VaR 95% -0.427% -1.069% -3.279% -7.458% -6.824%
VaR 99% -0.658% -1.534% -3.848% -8.905% -8.272%
CVaR 95% -0.542% -1.302% -3.563% -8.182% -7.548%
Skew -0.47 -0.20 -0.59 0.23 -0.18
Excess kurtosis -0.12 0.26 1.17 -0.39 -1.69
Best day 0.10% 0.13% 0.07% 0.00% 0.00%
Worst day -0.66% -1.53% -3.85% -8.90% -8.27%
Positive days 5 2 1 1 6
Negative days 25 28 29 29 24
Round trips 273 520 970 1,484 945
Winning / losing trades 57 / 216 102 / 418 173 / 797 155 / 1,329 115 / 830
Trades per day 9.10 17.33 32.33 49.47 31.50
Win rate 20.88% 19.62% 17.84% 10.44% 12.17%
Profit factor 0.15 0.13 0.12 0.06 0.07
Payoff ratio 0.58 0.52 0.53 0.51 0.49
Expectancy -0.0249 -0.0358 -0.0511 -0.0583 -0.0762
Average win 0.0217 0.0263 0.0375 0.0352 0.0452
Average loss 0.0371 0.0510 0.0703 0.0692 0.0931
Average trade -0.0249 -0.0358 -0.0511 -0.0583 -0.0762
Max win streak 4 5 7 6 6
Max loss streak 28 34 53 146 149
Time in market 9.93% 17.58% 28.74% 34.45% 22.32%
Turnover 0.08 0.20 0.51 0.80 0.68
Realised P&L -6.78 -18.62 -49.55 -86.50 -72.03
Unrealised P&L 0.00 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00
Fees paid 4.35 11.96 31.64 54.67 45.42
Fee drag 3.57% 9.80% 25.93% 44.81% 37.23%
Final equity 115.22 103.38 72.45 35.50 49.97

3m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return -0.50% -1.50% -7.25% -26.11% -39.23%
CAGR -5.90% -16.78% -59.97% -97.48% -99.77%
Buy and hold 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86%
Edge vs B&H -22.36% -23.36% -29.11% -47.97% -61.09%
Volatility (ann.) 1.96% 5.00% 12.48% 18.27% 22.78%
Sharpe -3.09 -3.65 -7.27 -20.06 -26.49
Sortino -3.04 -3.52 -6.96 -18.91 -24.30
Calmar -7.41 -8.49 -7.98 -3.72 -2.54
Omega 0.88 0.91 0.88 0.78 0.74
Max drawdown 0.80% 1.98% 7.51% 26.23% 39.35%
Ulcer index 0.0044 0.0123 0.0384 0.1370 0.2210
Drawdown episodes 12 1 3 1 1
Longest underwater (days) 28.8 29.7 29.8 30.0 30.0
Recovery factor -0.63 -0.76 -0.96 -1.00 -1.00
VaR 95% -0.150% -0.379% -1.221% -1.932% -3.438%
VaR 99% -0.200% -0.395% -1.492% -3.244% -4.339%
CVaR 95% -0.175% -0.387% -1.357% -2.588% -3.889%
Skew -0.83 -0.61 -0.50 -0.23 -0.25
Excess kurtosis 1.19 -0.81 0.11 1.58 1.27
Best day 0.12% 0.23% 0.66% 0.93% 0.85%
Worst day -0.20% -0.40% -1.49% -3.24% -4.34%
Positive days 12 16 10 3 1
Negative days 17 13 19 26 28
Round trips 40 119 273 570 610
Winning / losing trades 14 / 26 55 / 64 122 / 151 189 / 381 176 / 434
Trades per day 1.33 3.97 9.10 19.00 20.33
Win rate 35.00% 46.22% 44.69% 33.16% 28.85%
Profit factor 0.47 0.57 0.47 0.27 0.21
Payoff ratio 0.87 0.67 0.58 0.54 0.52
Expectancy -0.0152 -0.0154 -0.0324 -0.0559 -0.0785
Average win 0.0387 0.0447 0.0639 0.0621 0.0734
Average loss 0.0442 0.0669 0.1102 0.1144 0.1401
Average trade -0.0152 -0.0154 -0.0324 -0.0559 -0.0785
Max win streak 5 13 8 7 5
Max loss streak 13 23 27 44 48
Time in market 3.77% 11.07% 23.92% 38.31% 40.06%
Turnover 0.01 0.06 0.20 0.45 0.60
Realised P&L -0.61 -1.83 -8.84 -31.86 -47.87
Unrealised P&L 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01
Fees paid 0.66 2.88 9.96 25.96 34.06
Fee drag 0.54% 2.36% 8.17% 21.28% 27.92%
Final equity 121.39 120.17 113.16 90.14 74.14

5m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return -0.11% -0.53% -0.71% -12.16% -20.29%
CAGR -1.33% -6.21% -8.27% -79.36% -93.66%
Buy and hold 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83%
Edge vs B&H -21.94% -22.35% -22.54% -33.99% -42.12%
Volatility (ann.) 1.13% 4.57% 11.07% 18.78% 20.19%
Sharpe -1.17 -1.38 -0.72 -8.31 -13.56
Sortino -1.09 -1.33 -0.71 -7.99 -12.87
Calmar -3.25 -6.33 -3.75 -6.41 -4.58
Omega 0.93 0.95 0.98 0.88 0.83
Max drawdown 0.41% 0.98% 2.20% 12.39% 20.45%
Ulcer index 0.0015 0.0044 0.0115 0.0580 0.1023
Drawdown episodes 45 21 48 3 2
Longest underwater (days) 14.4 14.7 15.0 29.7 29.8
Recovery factor -0.27 -0.54 -0.32 -0.98 -0.99
VaR 95% -0.098% -0.254% -0.510% -1.632% -2.041%
VaR 99% -0.171% -0.315% -0.574% -1.818% -2.384%
CVaR 95% -0.134% -0.285% -0.542% -1.725% -2.212%
Skew -1.79 0.19 0.57 -0.12 -0.06
Excess kurtosis 5.14 0.36 -0.24 -0.45 -0.52
Best day 0.09% 0.30% 0.72% 0.64% 0.59%
Worst day -0.17% -0.32% -0.57% -1.82% -2.38%
Positive days 16 13 13 9 4
Negative days 14 17 17 21 26
Round trips 17 58 149 338 356
Winning / losing trades 10 / 7 29 / 29 84 / 65 148 / 190 144 / 212
Trades per day 0.57 1.93 4.97 11.27 11.87
Win rate 58.82% 50.00% 56.38% 43.79% 40.45%
Profit factor 0.72 0.74 0.89 0.47 0.37
Payoff ratio 0.51 0.74 0.69 0.60 0.54
Expectancy -0.0079 -0.0111 -0.0058 -0.0439 -0.0695
Average win 0.0348 0.0633 0.0860 0.0873 0.0993
Average loss 0.0688 0.0854 0.1244 0.1461 0.1842
Average trade -0.0079 -0.0111 -0.0058 -0.0439 -0.0695
Max win streak 5 6 10 11 9
Max loss streak 4 6 5 28 28
Time in market 2.40% 8.58% 19.60% 36.87% 38.87%
Turnover 0.01 0.04 0.13 0.33 0.44
Realised P&L -0.13 -0.64 -0.86 -14.84 -24.75
Unrealised P&L 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fees paid 0.26 1.44 5.84 16.73 21.34
Fee drag 0.21% 1.18% 4.79% 13.72% 17.49%
Final equity 121.87 121.36 121.14 107.16 97.25

Every number on this page is read from the run record that produced it — the audit pipeline writes the page and the record together, so the two cannot drift apart.

With the break-even guard PASS

Exits: no exit below average entry plus fees, stops included

The metric set the portfolio dashboard reports, computed per cell so a backtested configuration and a running one read on the same axes. Portfolio-level measures (concentration, pairwise correlation, beta against a benchmark) are omitted: one strategy on one pair has no cross-sectional structure to measure, and printing a null would imply the number exists.

1m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 0.39% -0.25% 0.80% -0.29% 1.22%
CAGR 4.91% -2.95% 10.15% -3.43% 15.85%
Buy and hold 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88%
Edge vs B&H -21.49% -22.13% -21.08% -22.17% -20.67%
Volatility (ann.) 6.94% 14.64% 27.43% 32.89% 27.42%
Sharpe 0.73 -0.13 0.49 0.06 0.67
Sortino 0.68 -0.13 0.47 0.06 0.64
Calmar 4.67 -1.17 2.10 -0.57 3.14
Omega 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
Max drawdown 1.05% 2.53% 4.84% 5.98% 5.04%
Ulcer index 0.0026 0.0093 0.0176 0.0247 0.0213
Drawdown episodes 296 211 415 285 249
Longest underwater (days) 4.9 6.5 6.6 8.2 8.2
Recovery factor 0.38 -0.10 0.16 -0.05 0.24
VaR 95% -0.356% -1.061% -1.981% -2.109% -1.676%
VaR 99% -0.425% -1.606% -3.130% -3.457% -2.836%
CVaR 95% -0.391% -1.334% -2.555% -2.783% -2.256%
Skew -0.29 0.46 0.44 0.29 0.25
Excess kurtosis 0.07 1.92 2.65 0.86 0.61
Best day 0.45% 2.10% 4.04% 4.17% 3.32%
Worst day -0.43% -1.61% -3.13% -3.46% -2.84%
Positive days 20 16 16 15 15
Negative days 10 14 14 15 15
Round trips 81 64 125 132 113
Winning / losing trades 81 / 0 64 / 0 125 / 0 132 / 0 113 / 0
Trades per day 2.70 2.13 4.17 4.40 3.77
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 0.0161 0.0264 0.0385 0.0448 0.0608
Average win 0.0161 0.0264 0.0385 0.0448 0.0608
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 0.0161 0.0264 0.0385 0.0448 0.0608
Max win streak 81 64 125 132 113
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 58.97% 82.11% 86.46% 93.25% 95.00%
Turnover 0.01 0.01 0.04 0.05 0.06
Realised P&L 1.30 1.69 4.81 5.91 6.87
Unrealised P&L -0.82 -1.99 -3.84 -6.26 -5.38
Fees paid 1.43 1.73 5.10 6.87 6.81
Fee drag 1.17% 1.41% 4.18% 5.63% 5.59%
Final equity 122.48 121.70 122.97 121.65 123.48

3m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 0.79% 1.98% 5.02% 0.31% 0.19%
CAGR 10.00% 26.89% 81.44% 3.82% 2.38%
Buy and hold 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86%
Edge vs B&H -21.07% -19.88% -16.84% -21.55% -21.67%
Volatility (ann.) 3.20% 9.92% 23.34% 30.15% 26.37%
Sharpe 2.99 2.45 2.67 0.28 0.22
Sortino 3.12 2.47 2.70 0.27 0.21
Calmar 25.57 12.21 18.60 0.66 0.49
Omega 1.06 1.03 1.02 1.00 1.00
Max drawdown 0.39% 2.20% 4.38% 5.83% 4.83%
Ulcer index 0.0004 0.0058 0.0130 0.0228 0.0197
Drawdown episodes 252 279 354 214 152
Longest underwater (days) 2.8 6.5 6.5 8.0 8.2
Recovery factor 2.01 0.90 1.15 0.05 0.04
VaR 95% -0.022% -1.048% -1.954% -2.058% -1.670%
VaR 99% -0.085% -1.263% -2.705% -3.207% -2.687%
CVaR 95% -0.053% -1.156% -2.329% -2.633% -2.178%
Skew 0.46 0.14 0.13 0.04 0.23
Excess kurtosis 0.80 5.04 2.90 0.54 0.78
Best day 0.13% 1.64% 3.39% 3.47% 3.16%
Worst day -0.08% -1.26% -2.70% -3.21% -2.69%
Positive days 21 21 20 16 15
Negative days 8 8 9 13 14
Round trips 31 64 97 84 62
Winning / losing trades 31 / 0 64 / 0 97 / 0 84 / 0 62 / 0
Trades per day 1.03 2.13 3.23 2.80 2.07
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 0.0309 0.0377 0.0631 0.0785 0.0872
Average win 0.0309 0.0377 0.0631 0.0785 0.0872
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 0.0309 0.0377 0.0631 0.0785 0.0872
Max win streak 31 64 97 84 62
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 19.21% 46.06% 68.60% 86.74% 90.22%
Turnover 0.01 0.02 0.05 0.05 0.04
Realised P&L 0.96 2.41 6.12 6.60 5.41
Unrealised P&L 0.00 0.00 0.00 -6.22 -5.17
Fees paid 0.53 1.68 3.94 4.66 3.75
Fee drag 0.44% 1.37% 3.23% 3.82% 3.08%
Final equity 122.96 124.41 128.12 122.38 122.24

5m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 0.40% 1.91% 5.73% 6.54% 0.97%
CAGR 4.96% 25.92% 96.89% 116.07% 12.47%
Buy and hold 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83%
Edge vs B&H -21.43% -19.92% -16.10% -15.29% -20.86%
Volatility (ann.) 1.57% 7.30% 19.50% 28.50% 25.44%
Sharpe 3.08 3.19 3.57 2.85 0.59
Sortino 3.26 3.26 3.69 2.92 0.58
Calmar 15.48 23.03 23.50 24.22 2.62
Omega 1.11 1.06 1.05 1.03 1.01
Max drawdown 0.32% 1.13% 4.12% 4.79% 4.76%
Ulcer index 0.0002 0.0014 0.0113 0.0161 0.0189
Drawdown episodes 147 208 302 254 136
Longest underwater (days) 6.9 2.8 6.5 6.6 8.3
Recovery factor 1.24 1.70 1.39 1.36 0.20
VaR 95% -0.007% -0.238% -1.899% -1.998% -1.611%
VaR 99% -0.075% -0.245% -2.533% -3.129% -2.643%
CVaR 95% -0.041% -0.241% -2.216% -2.564% -2.127%
Skew 0.62 -0.27 0.33 0.15 0.03
Excess kurtosis 1.80 0.59 5.10 1.26 0.65
Best day 0.09% 0.29% 3.54% 3.79% 2.89%
Worst day -0.07% -0.24% -2.53% -3.13% -2.64%
Positive days 19 25 24 21 16
Negative days 11 5 6 9 14
Round trips 15 46 81 88 52
Winning / losing trades 15 / 0 46 / 0 81 / 0 88 / 0 52 / 0
Trades per day 0.50 1.53 2.70 2.93 1.73
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 0.0324 0.0507 0.0862 0.0984 0.1218
Average win 0.0324 0.0507 0.0862 0.0984 0.1218
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 0.0324 0.0507 0.0862 0.0984 0.1218
Max win streak 15 46 81 88 52
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 8.48% 25.11% 51.97% 79.24% 86.71%
Turnover 0.00 0.02 0.06 0.07 0.05
Realised P&L 0.49 2.33 6.99 8.66 6.33
Unrealised P&L 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.69 -5.15
Fees paid 0.23 1.23 3.37 4.84 3.15
Fee drag 0.18% 1.01% 2.76% 3.97% 2.58%
Final equity 122.49 124.33 128.99 129.98 123.18

Every number on this page is read from the run record that produced it — the audit pipeline writes the page and the record together, so the two cannot drift apart.

What the guard is, and what a better number under it means. The break-even guard refuses any exit below average entry plus fees. It cannot improve a strategy's judgement — it can only stop it selling at a loss, which means holding the position instead. Across the pack that turns a strategy that churned into one that buys and waits: trade counts collapse and time in market rises towards 100%. In a window where the asset itself rose, that reads as a much better return while being strictly less of a strategy.

So read the return next to round trips, time in market and edge vs buy and hold. The last of those is the one that matters: not one strategy in this matrix beat simply holding the asset, in either run.

Ignore the win rate and the profit factor under the guard. Both count closed trades only, and the guard closes nothing at a loss — in all 101 guarded runs the number of losing closed trades is exactly zero. So the win rate goes to 100% and the profit factor becomes undefined for arithmetic reasons, while the losses sit in the position that is still open. The unrealised row is where they went.