← Keltner_Squeeze_Breakout

Keltner_Squeeze_Breakout — metrics

Unguarded: WARN · 4 warnGuarded: WARN · 4 warnDirectionalgunbot-quant

BTCUSDT · 2026-08-13 01:50 → 2026-09-12 01:50 UTC (30 days) · 0.03% fee + 2 bps slippage · 1,000 quote, one figure for every cell

The same document for both runs of the same measurement — first as the strategy ships, then with the break-even guard. Everything else about the two runs is identical.

As it ships WARN · 4 warn

Exits: the strategy's own exits, stops included

The metric set the portfolio dashboard reports, computed per cell so a backtested configuration and a running one read on the same axes. Portfolio-level measures (concentration, pairwise correlation, beta against a benchmark) are omitted: one strategy on one pair has no cross-sectional structure to measure, and printing a null would imply the number exists.

1m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return -0.02% -0.04% -3.77% -36.13% -58.27%
CAGR -0.23% -0.44% -37.31% -99.57% -100.00%
Buy and hold 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88%
Edge vs B&H -21.90% -21.92% -25.65% -58.01% -80.15%
Volatility (ann.) 0.03% 0.06% 4.01% 20.72% 25.82%
Sharpe -6.83 -6.97 -11.62 -26.22 -41.05
Sortino -0.12 -0.13 -7.94 -25.05 -41.21
Calmar -12.15 -12.14 -9.91 -2.76 -1.72
Omega 0.00 0.00 0.68 0.77 0.73
Max drawdown 0.02% 0.04% 3.77% 36.13% 58.27%
Ulcer index 0.0002 0.0003 0.0234 0.1977 0.3492
Drawdown episodes 1 1 1 1 1
Longest underwater (days) 27.4 27.4 29.5 30.0 30.0
Recovery factor -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00
VaR 95% -0.008% -0.015% -0.384% -2.683% -5.172%
VaR 99% -0.011% -0.022% -0.686% -2.927% -5.436%
CVaR 95% -0.010% -0.018% -0.535% -2.805% -5.304%
Skew -3.39 -3.52 -1.64 1.82 0.88
Excess kurtosis 10.03 11.30 3.18 4.43 0.66
Best day 0.00% 0.00% 0.03% 2.56% 1.24%
Worst day -0.01% -0.02% -0.69% -2.93% -5.44%
Positive days 0 0 3 2 2
Negative days 2 2 24 28 28
Round trips 2 2 73 696 1,198
Winning / losing trades 0 / 2 0 / 2 6 / 67 101 / 595 164 / 1,034
Trades per day 0.07 0.07 2.43 23.20 39.93
Win rate 0.00% 0.00% 8.22% 14.51% 13.69%
Profit factor 0.00 0.00 0.18 0.40 0.34
Payoff ratio 0.00 0.00 1.96 2.37 2.12
Expectancy -0.0958 -0.1808 -0.5159 -0.5192 -0.4864
Average win 0.0000 0.0000 1.3348 2.4023 1.7973
Average loss 0.0958 0.1808 0.6816 1.0151 0.8486
Average trade -0.0958 -0.1808 -0.5159 -0.5192 -0.4864
Max win streak 0 0 1 4 5
Max loss streak 2 2 19 48 47
Time in market 0.07% 0.07% 1.96% 21.83% 35.76%
Turnover 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.85 1.17
Realised P&L -0.19 -0.36 -37.66 -361.33 -582.68
Unrealised P&L -0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.00
Fees paid 0.12 0.23 21.47 263.82 405.20
Fee drag 0.01% 0.02% 2.15% 26.38% 40.52%
Final equity 999.81 999.64 962.34 638.67 417.32

3m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 0.00% 0.00% -2.33% -12.26% -20.44%
CAGR 0.00% 0.00% -24.91% -79.63% -93.81%
Buy and hold 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86%
Edge vs B&H -21.86% -21.86% -24.19% -34.12% -42.30%
Volatility (ann.) 0.00% 0.00% 4.82% 19.69% 24.12%
Sharpe 0.00 0.00 -5.92 -7.98 -11.42
Sortino 0.00 0.00 -5.44 -8.25 -11.92
Calmar 0.00 0.00 -9.70 -4.53 -3.84
Omega 0.00 0.00 0.81 0.89 0.86
Max drawdown 0.00% 0.00% 2.57% 17.59% 24.41%
Ulcer index 0.0000 0.0000 0.0137 0.0922 0.1259
Drawdown episodes 0 0 7 27 22
Longest underwater (days) 0.0 0.0 15.7 21.7 21.7
Recovery factor 0.00 0.00 -0.91 -0.70 -0.84
VaR 95% 0.000% 0.000% -0.347% -1.459% -2.211%
VaR 99% 0.000% 0.000% -0.361% -1.717% -2.564%
CVaR 95% 0.000% 0.000% -0.354% -1.588% -2.388%
Skew 0.00 0.00 1.24 2.56 2.21
Excess kurtosis 0.00 0.00 3.98 6.84 4.74
Best day 0.00% 0.00% 0.56% 5.09% 5.33%
Worst day 0.00% 0.00% -0.36% -1.72% -2.56%
Positive days 0 0 6 5 5
Negative days 0 0 23 24 24
Round trips 0 0 51 276 402
Winning / losing trades 0 / 0 0 / 0 5 / 46 46 / 230 75 / 327
Trades per day 0.00 0.00 1.70 9.20 13.40
Win rate 0.00% 0.00% 9.80% 16.67% 18.66%
Profit factor 0.00 0.00 0.38 0.62 0.57
Payoff ratio 0.00 0.00 3.53 3.12 2.50
Expectancy 0.0000 0.0000 -0.4562 -0.4441 -0.5084
Average win 0.0000 0.0000 2.8977 4.4264 3.6701
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.8208 1.4182 1.4668
Average trade 0.0000 0.0000 -0.4562 -0.4441 -0.5084
Max win streak 0 0 2 2 3
Max loss streak 0 0 25 22 20
Time in market 0.00% 0.00% 5.01% 26.85% 37.42%
Turnover 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.53 0.75
Realised P&L 0.00 0.00 -23.27 -122.58 -204.40
Unrealised P&L 0.00 0.00 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00
Fees paid 0.00 0.00 14.28 120.10 181.66
Fee drag 0.00% 0.00% 1.43% 12.01% 18.17%
Final equity 1000.00 1000.00 976.73 877.42 795.60

5m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 0.00% 0.00% -2.08% 0.47% -7.01%
CAGR 0.00% 0.00% -22.52% 5.85% -58.70%
Buy and hold 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83%
Edge vs B&H -21.83% -21.83% -23.90% -21.36% -28.84%
Volatility (ann.) 0.00% 0.00% 6.13% 21.76% 25.04%
Sharpe 0.00 0.00 -4.13 0.37 -3.41
Sortino 0.00 0.00 -4.09 0.41 -3.79
Calmar 0.00 0.00 -7.89 0.57 -3.56
Omega 0.00 0.00 0.84 1.01 0.94
Max drawdown 0.00% 0.00% 2.85% 10.35% 16.47%
Ulcer index 0.0000 0.0000 0.0163 0.0462 0.0777
Drawdown episodes 0 0 7 17 18
Longest underwater (days) 0.0 0.0 23.2 21.7 21.7
Recovery factor 0.00 0.00 -0.73 0.05 -0.43
VaR 95% 0.000% 0.000% -0.282% -1.626% -2.113%
VaR 99% 0.000% 0.000% -0.346% -2.007% -2.371%
CVaR 95% 0.000% 0.000% -0.314% -1.816% -2.242%
Skew 0.00 0.00 2.21 1.71 1.60
Excess kurtosis 0.00 0.00 6.52 3.03 2.92
Best day 0.00% 0.00% 0.72% 5.06% 5.29%
Worst day 0.00% 0.00% -0.35% -2.01% -2.37%
Positive days 0 0 7 9 9
Negative days 0 0 22 21 21
Round trips 0 0 40 161 237
Winning / losing trades 0 / 0 0 / 0 4 / 36 34 / 127 39 / 198
Trades per day 0.00 0.00 1.33 5.37 7.90
Win rate 0.00% 0.00% 10.00% 21.12% 16.46%
Profit factor 0.00 0.00 0.42 1.02 0.80
Payoff ratio 0.00 0.00 3.75 3.81 4.07
Expectancy 0.0000 0.0000 -0.5188 0.0291 -0.2958
Average win 0.0000 0.0000 3.7027 7.2119 7.2718
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.9879 1.8938 1.7864
Average trade 0.0000 0.0000 -0.5188 0.0291 -0.2958
Max win streak 0 0 1 3 3
Max loss streak 0 0 16 19 21
Time in market 0.00% 0.00% 7.11% 27.98% 37.51%
Turnover 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.49 0.64
Realised P&L 0.00 0.00 -20.75 4.69 -70.11
Unrealised P&L 0.00 0.00 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00
Fees paid 0.00 0.00 12.42 79.00 117.17
Fee drag 0.00% 0.00% 1.24% 7.90% 11.72%
Final equity 1000.00 1000.00 979.25 1004.69 929.89

Every number on this page is read from the run record that produced it — the audit pipeline writes the page and the record together, so the two cannot drift apart.

With the break-even guard WARN · 4 warn

Exits: no exit below average entry plus fees, stops included

The metric set the portfolio dashboard reports, computed per cell so a backtested configuration and a running one read on the same axes. Portfolio-level measures (concentration, pairwise correlation, beta against a benchmark) are omitted: one strategy on one pair has no cross-sectional structure to measure, and printing a null would imply the number exists.

1m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 0.08% 0.13% 0.88% 9.40% 11.96%
CAGR 1.00% 1.60% 11.31% 198.45% 295.30%
Buy and hold 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88%
Edge vs B&H -21.80% -21.75% -21.00% -12.48% -9.92%
Volatility (ann.) 0.51% 0.74% 22.52% 34.36% 37.17%
Sharpe 1.95 2.14 0.59 3.35 3.88
Sortino 1.85 2.03 0.56 3.33 3.87
Calmar 7.38 8.15 2.21 31.24 42.87
Omega 1.09 1.10 1.00 1.02 1.02
Max drawdown 0.14% 0.20% 5.12% 6.35% 6.89%
Ulcer index 0.0005 0.0007 0.0217 0.0290 0.0311
Drawdown episodes 12 12 26 59 57
Longest underwater (days) 26.4 26.4 9.6 9.7 9.7
Recovery factor 0.60 0.67 0.17 1.48 1.74
VaR 95% -0.000% -0.000% -1.830% -1.990% -2.164%
VaR 99% -0.066% -0.082% -3.090% -3.353% -3.638%
CVaR 95% -0.033% -0.041% -2.460% -2.671% -2.901%
Skew 3.40 3.76 0.68 0.91 1.05
Excess kurtosis 16.35 17.60 3.27 0.99 1.24
Best day 0.15% 0.21% 4.13% 5.39% 6.08%
Worst day -0.07% -0.08% -3.09% -3.35% -3.64%
Positive days 15 15 18 15 16
Negative days 13 13 12 15 14
Round trips 1 1 16 27 37
Winning / losing trades 1 / 0 1 / 0 16 / 0 27 / 0 37 / 0
Trades per day 0.03 0.03 0.53 0.90 1.23
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 0.8222 1.3075 2.9724 5.5772 4.9262
Average win 0.8222 1.3075 2.9724 5.5772 4.9262
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 0.8222 1.3075 2.9724 5.5772 4.9262
Max win streak 1 1 16 27 37
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 3.25% 3.25% 84.53% 98.45% 98.21%
Turnover 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.15 0.18
Realised P&L 0.82 1.31 47.56 150.58 182.27
Unrealised P&L 0.00 0.00 -38.71 -56.55 -62.67
Fees paid 0.26 0.36 8.55 16.23 24.47
Fee drag 0.03% 0.04% 0.85% 1.62% 2.45%
Final equity 1000.82 1001.31 1008.84 1094.03 1119.60

3m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 0.00% 0.00% 3.90% 13.38% 17.43%
CAGR 0.00% 0.00% 59.38% 361.00% 606.03%
Buy and hold 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86%
Edge vs B&H -21.86% -21.86% -17.96% -8.48% -4.43%
Volatility (ann.) 0.00% 0.00% 16.98% 32.46% 35.66%
Sharpe 0.00 0.00 2.83 4.87 5.66
Sortino 0.00 0.00 2.85 4.88 5.71
Calmar 0.00 0.00 16.15 56.78 89.01
Omega 0.00 0.00 1.03 1.04 1.05
Max drawdown 0.00% 0.00% 3.68% 6.36% 6.81%
Ulcer index 0.0000 0.0000 0.0171 0.0257 0.0289
Drawdown episodes 0 0 44 56 63
Longest underwater (days) 0.0 0.0 9.8 8.4 8.2
Recovery factor 0.00 0.00 1.06 2.11 2.56
VaR 95% 0.000% 0.000% -1.381% -1.960% -2.129%
VaR 99% 0.000% 0.000% -1.699% -2.371% -2.574%
CVaR 95% 0.000% 0.000% -1.540% -2.166% -2.352%
Skew 0.00 0.00 2.69 1.54 1.70
Excess kurtosis 0.00 0.00 9.69 2.62 2.96
Best day 0.00% 0.00% 5.51% 7.00% 8.53%
Worst day 0.00% 0.00% -1.70% -2.37% -2.57%
Positive days 0 0 18 15 16
Negative days 0 0 11 14 13
Round trips 0 0 16 23 28
Winning / losing trades 0 / 0 0 / 0 16 / 0 23 / 0 28 / 0
Trades per day 0.00 0.00 0.53 0.77 0.93
Win rate 0.00% 0.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor 0.00 0.00 ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio 0.00 0.00 ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 0.0000 0.0000 4.3106 8.4012 8.6092
Average win 0.0000 0.0000 4.3106 8.4012 8.6092
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 0.0000 0.0000 4.3106 8.4012 8.6092
Max win streak 0 0 16 23 28
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 0.00% 0.00% 70.81% 94.17% 94.53%
Turnover 0.00 0.00 0.07 0.19 0.24
Realised P&L 0.00 0.00 68.97 193.23 241.06
Unrealised P&L 0.00 0.00 -29.92 -59.40 -66.81
Fees paid 0.00 0.00 8.61 14.37 19.37
Fee drag 0.00% 0.00% 0.86% 1.44% 1.94%
Final equity 1000.00 1000.00 1039.05 1133.83 1174.25

5m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 0.00% 0.00% 10.50% 11.99% 11.39%
CAGR 0.00% 0.00% 236.89% 296.56% 271.48%
Buy and hold 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83%
Edge vs B&H -21.83% -21.83% -11.33% -9.84% -10.44%
Volatility (ann.) 0.00% 0.00% 20.43% 32.76% 35.25%
Sharpe 0.00 0.00 6.05 4.37 3.90
Sortino 0.00 0.00 6.81 4.55 4.01
Calmar 0.00 0.00 48.81 44.32 37.89
Omega 0.00 0.00 1.08 1.05 1.04
Max drawdown 0.00% 0.00% 4.85% 6.69% 7.16%
Ulcer index 0.0000 0.0000 0.0184 0.0294 0.0318
Drawdown episodes 0 0 32 39 39
Longest underwater (days) 0.0 0.0 8.2 9.6 10.0
Recovery factor 0.00 0.00 2.16 1.79 1.59
VaR 95% 0.000% 0.000% -1.544% -1.909% -2.075%
VaR 99% 0.000% 0.000% -2.605% -3.205% -3.477%
CVaR 95% 0.000% 0.000% -2.074% -2.557% -2.776%
Skew 0.00 0.00 1.78 1.53 1.34
Excess kurtosis 0.00 0.00 3.27 2.82 2.56
Best day 0.00% 0.00% 5.72% 6.79% 7.52%
Worst day 0.00% 0.00% -2.60% -3.21% -3.48%
Positive days 0 0 15 16 17
Negative days 0 0 15 14 13
Round trips 0 0 10 17 21
Winning / losing trades 0 / 0 0 / 0 10 / 0 17 / 0 21 / 0
Trades per day 0.00 0.00 0.33 0.57 0.70
Win rate 0.00% 0.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor 0.00 0.00 ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio 0.00 0.00 ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 0.0000 0.0000 11.9218 10.6996 8.6333
Average win 0.0000 0.0000 11.9218 10.6996 8.6333
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 0.0000 0.0000 11.9218 10.6996 8.6333
Max win streak 0 0 10 17 21
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 0.00% 0.00% 83.95% 93.06% 94.04%
Turnover 0.00 0.00 0.12 0.18 0.18
Realised P&L 0.00 0.00 119.22 181.89 181.30
Unrealised P&L 0.00 0.00 -14.24 -62.00 -67.40
Fees paid 0.00 0.00 5.53 10.68 14.08
Fee drag 0.00% 0.00% 0.55% 1.07% 1.41%
Final equity 1000.00 1000.00 1104.98 1119.89 1113.90

Every number on this page is read from the run record that produced it — the audit pipeline writes the page and the record together, so the two cannot drift apart.

What the guard is, and what a better number under it means. The break-even guard refuses any exit below average entry plus fees. It cannot improve a strategy's judgement — it can only stop it selling at a loss, which means holding the position instead. Across the pack that turns a strategy that churned into one that buys and waits: trade counts collapse and time in market rises towards 100%. In a window where the asset itself rose, that reads as a much better return while being strictly less of a strategy.

So read the return next to round trips, time in market and edge vs buy and hold. The last of those is the one that matters: not one strategy in this matrix beat simply holding the asset, in either run.

Ignore the win rate and the profit factor under the guard. Both count closed trades only, and the guard closes nothing at a loss — in all 101 guarded runs the number of losing closed trades is exactly zero. So the win rate goes to 100% and the profit factor becomes undefined for arithmetic reasons, while the losses sit in the position that is still open. The unrealised row is where they went.