← MACD_ADX_Confluence

MACD_ADX_Confluence — metrics

Unguarded: PASSGuarded: PASSDirectionalgunbot-quant

BTCUSDT · 2026-08-13 01:50 → 2026-09-12 01:50 UTC (30 days) · 0.03% fee + 2 bps slippage · 1,000 quote, one figure for every cell

The same document for both runs of the same measurement — first as the strategy ships, then with the break-even guard. Everything else about the two runs is identical.

As it ships PASS

Exits: the strategy's own exits, stops included

The metric set the portfolio dashboard reports, computed per cell so a backtested configuration and a running one read on the same axes. Portfolio-level measures (concentration, pairwise correlation, beta against a benchmark) are omitted: one strategy on one pair has no cross-sectional structure to measure, and printing a null would imply the number exists.

1m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return -0.11% -1.63% -7.03% -21.29% -35.35%
CAGR -1.29% -18.11% -58.82% -94.57% -99.50%
Buy and hold 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88%
Edge vs B&H -21.99% -23.51% -28.91% -43.17% -57.23%
Volatility (ann.) 0.11% 0.99% 6.14% 15.44% 20.36%
Sharpe -12.26 -20.26 -14.42 -18.79 -25.96
Sortino -4.96 -15.18 -11.47 -19.38 -27.05
Calmar -12.09 -10.94 -8.36 -4.39 -2.74
Omega 0.04 0.44 0.69 0.74 0.74
Max drawdown 0.11% 1.65% 7.03% 21.55% 36.36%
Ulcer index 0.0008 0.0111 0.0416 0.1132 0.2024
Drawdown episodes 1 3 1 1 4
Longest underwater (days) 27.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 30.0
Recovery factor -1.00 -0.98 -1.00 -0.99 -0.97
VaR 95% -0.032% -0.177% -0.630% -1.985% -2.757%
VaR 99% -0.043% -0.283% -0.676% -2.003% -3.367%
CVaR 95% -0.037% -0.230% -0.653% -1.994% -3.062%
Skew -2.90 -1.17 0.62 1.80 1.19
Excess kurtosis 7.69 2.56 0.18 5.35 1.85
Best day 0.00% 0.09% 0.47% 2.51% 2.22%
Worst day -0.04% -0.28% -0.68% -2.00% -3.37%
Positive days 3 4 4 4 3
Negative days 11 25 26 26 27
Round trips 8 68 173 379 611
Winning / losing trades 0 / 8 1 / 67 11 / 162 44 / 335 82 / 529
Trades per day 0.27 2.27 5.77 12.63 20.37
Win rate 0.00% 1.47% 6.36% 11.61% 13.42%
Profit factor 0.00 0.05 0.29 0.39 0.38
Payoff ratio 0.00 3.44 4.23 2.95 2.42
Expectancy -0.1328 -0.2395 -0.4065 -0.5617 -0.5785
Average win 0.0000 0.8825 2.5787 3.0529 2.5960
Average loss 0.1328 0.2562 0.6092 1.0365 1.0706
Average trade -0.1328 -0.2395 -0.4065 -0.5617 -0.5785
Max win streak 0 1 1 4 4
Max loss streak 8 52 37 42 30
Time in market 0.07% 0.97% 4.01% 10.58% 18.43%
Turnover 0.00 0.02 0.13 0.48 0.78
Realised P&L -1.06 -16.29 -70.33 -212.90 -353.48
Unrealised P&L -0.00 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00
Fees paid 0.50 7.10 43.43 151.25 245.49
Fee drag 0.05% 0.71% 4.34% 15.13% 24.55%
Final equity 998.94 983.71 929.67 787.10 646.52

3m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return -0.07% 2.18% 1.82% -1.42% -3.78%
CAGR -0.80% 30.00% 24.55% -16.01% -37.42%
Buy and hold 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86%
Edge vs B&H -21.93% -19.68% -20.04% -23.28% -25.64%
Volatility (ann.) 0.15% 4.38% 9.31% 14.67% 19.04%
Sharpe -5.47 6.01 2.41 -1.12 -2.37
Sortino -0.13 6.66 2.56 -1.22 -2.61
Calmar -12.12 34.76 6.94 -2.08 -3.63
Omega 0.18 1.77 1.12 0.97 0.96
Max drawdown 0.07% 0.86% 3.54% 7.71% 10.31%
Ulcer index 0.0004 0.0069 0.0210 0.0367 0.0501
Drawdown episodes 1 7 7 14 18
Longest underwater (days) 12.5 21.7 21.7 21.7 21.7
Recovery factor -1.00 2.53 0.51 -0.18 -0.37
VaR 95% -0.022% -0.056% -0.399% -0.876% -1.131%
VaR 99% -0.044% -0.072% -0.467% -1.787% -1.440%
CVaR 95% -0.033% -0.064% -0.433% -1.331% -1.286%
Skew -3.78 4.79 4.32 2.57 2.79
Excess kurtosis 13.68 21.84 18.81 8.59 8.59
Best day 0.00% 2.34% 4.16% 4.43% 5.82%
Worst day -0.04% -0.07% -0.47% -1.79% -1.44%
Positive days 0 9 8 6 6
Negative days 2 16 21 23 23
Round trips 2 16 50 119 204
Winning / losing trades 0 / 2 4 / 12 5 / 45 28 / 91 42 / 162
Trades per day 0.07 0.53 1.67 3.97 6.80
Win rate 0.00% 25.00% 10.00% 23.53% 20.59%
Profit factor 0.00 6.66 1.47 0.90 0.85
Payoff ratio 0.00 19.98 13.25 2.93 3.30
Expectancy -0.3314 1.3622 0.3641 -0.1197 -0.1852
Average win 0.0000 6.4114 11.3481 4.6602 5.2760
Average loss 0.3314 0.3209 0.8563 1.5904 1.6011
Average trade -0.3314 1.3622 0.3641 -0.1197 -0.1852
Max win streak 0 1 1 4 5
Max loss streak 2 5 21 16 16
Time in market 0.06% 1.25% 3.98% 11.96% 20.70%
Turnover 0.00 0.03 0.10 0.28 0.48
Realised P&L -0.66 21.80 18.21 -14.24 -37.79
Unrealised P&L 0.00 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00
Fees paid 0.10 2.16 14.60 56.17 100.58
Fee drag 0.01% 0.22% 1.46% 5.62% 10.06%
Final equity 999.34 1021.80 1018.21 985.76 962.21

5m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return -0.11% -0.52% -0.66% 3.14% 5.18%
CAGR -1.38% -6.16% -7.79% 45.72% 84.83%
Buy and hold 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83%
Edge vs B&H -21.94% -22.35% -22.49% -18.69% -16.65%
Volatility (ann.) 0.18% 0.93% 8.74% 15.39% 20.57%
Sharpe -7.57 -6.87 -0.88 2.52 3.09
Sortino -4.72 -4.93 -0.74 2.70 3.55
Calmar -12.09 -11.29 -2.69 7.65 13.37
Omega 0.08 0.50 0.95 1.09 1.08
Max drawdown 0.11% 0.55% 2.89% 5.97% 6.35%
Ulcer index 0.0008 0.0038 0.0179 0.0303 0.0322
Drawdown episodes 1 3 4 19 18
Longest underwater (days) 22.7 23.2 21.7 21.7 21.7
Recovery factor -1.00 -0.96 -0.23 0.53 0.82
VaR 95% -0.037% -0.139% -0.279% -0.794% -1.050%
VaR 99% -0.050% -0.150% -0.373% -0.970% -1.341%
CVaR 95% -0.043% -0.145% -0.326% -0.882% -1.195%
Skew -2.81 -2.22 3.84 3.28 2.18
Excess kurtosis 6.68 3.80 16.44 11.87 4.17
Best day 0.00% 0.00% 1.60% 5.05% 5.32%
Worst day -0.05% -0.15% -0.37% -0.97% -1.34%
Positive days 8 7 5 8 9
Negative days 15 16 22 22 21
Round trips 3 9 33 60 114
Winning / losing trades 0 / 3 0 / 9 3 / 30 13 / 47 20 / 94
Trades per day 0.10 0.30 1.10 2.00 3.80
Win rate 0.00% 0.00% 9.09% 21.67% 17.54%
Profit factor 0.00 0.00 0.78 1.34 1.29
Payoff ratio 0.00 0.00 7.84 4.83 6.08
Expectancy -0.3803 -0.5793 -0.2013 0.5239 0.4542
Average win 0.0000 0.0000 8.0153 9.5998 11.3846
Average loss 0.3803 0.5793 1.0229 1.9865 1.8714
Average trade -0.3803 -0.5793 -0.2013 0.5239 0.4542
Max win streak 0 0 1 2 2
Max loss streak 3 9 13 11 15
Time in market 0.08% 0.67% 4.70% 10.16% 19.62%
Turnover 0.00 0.01 0.05 0.22 0.40
Realised P&L -1.14 -5.21 -6.64 31.43 51.78
Unrealised P&L -0.00 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00
Fees paid 0.15 0.89 8.84 28.24 58.52
Fee drag 0.01% 0.09% 0.88% 2.82% 5.85%
Final equity 998.86 994.79 993.36 1031.43 1051.78

Every number on this page is read from the run record that produced it — the audit pipeline writes the page and the record together, so the two cannot drift apart.

With the break-even guard PASS

Exits: no exit below average entry plus fees, stops included

The metric set the portfolio dashboard reports, computed per cell so a backtested configuration and a running one read on the same axes. Portfolio-level measures (concentration, pairwise correlation, beta against a benchmark) are omitted: one strategy on one pair has no cross-sectional structure to measure, and printing a null would imply the number exists.

1m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 0.03% -0.95% -0.15% 7.73% 8.78%
CAGR 0.31% -10.95% -1.77% 147.46% 178.30%
Buy and hold 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88%
Edge vs B&H -21.86% -22.83% -22.03% -14.15% -13.10%
Volatility (ann.) 1.77% 6.00% 19.95% 31.58% 35.56%
Sharpe 0.18 -1.90 0.01 3.03 3.06
Sortino 0.13 -1.78 0.01 2.99 3.04
Calmar 0.60 -6.98 -0.28 23.93 27.63
Omega 1.00 0.99 1.00 1.02 1.01
Max drawdown 0.52% 1.57% 6.39% 6.16% 6.45%
Ulcer index 0.0018 0.0059 0.0242 0.0286 0.0304
Drawdown episodes 5 15 36 51 49
Longest underwater (days) 18.1 18.5 21.7 13.5 9.7
Recovery factor 0.05 -0.60 -0.02 1.25 1.36
VaR 95% -0.247% -0.517% -1.274% -1.990% -2.164%
VaR 99% -0.302% -0.540% -1.402% -3.353% -3.638%
CVaR 95% -0.274% -0.529% -1.338% -2.671% -2.901%
Skew 0.58 0.26 0.41 0.87 0.94
Excess kurtosis 4.59 0.64 0.07 0.86 1.18
Best day 0.41% 0.70% 2.02% 5.02% 5.81%
Worst day -0.30% -0.54% -1.40% -3.35% -3.64%
Positive days 11 15 16 16 15
Negative days 7 15 14 14 15
Round trips 4 12 19 42 41
Winning / losing trades 4 / 0 12 / 0 19 / 0 42 / 0 41 / 0
Trades per day 0.13 0.40 0.63 1.40 1.37
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 0.0639 0.2229 2.4569 3.0703 3.5130
Average win 0.0639 0.2229 2.4569 3.0703 3.5130
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 0.0639 0.2229 2.4569 3.0703 3.5130
Max win streak 4 12 19 42 41
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 37.83% 85.61% 89.57% 91.56% 95.99%
Turnover 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.13 0.14
Realised P&L 0.26 2.67 46.68 128.95 144.03
Unrealised P&L 0.00 -12.16 -48.15 -51.64 -56.26
Fees paid 0.45 2.14 9.08 24.79 26.19
Fee drag 0.05% 0.21% 0.91% 2.48% 2.62%
Final equity 1000.26 990.52 998.53 1077.32 1087.77

3m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 0.01% 3.07% 5.92% 6.36% 14.14%
CAGR 0.11% 44.43% 101.22% 111.83% 399.96%
Buy and hold 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86%
Edge vs B&H -21.85% -18.79% -15.94% -15.50% -7.72%
Volatility (ann.) 1.08% 5.42% 15.36% 30.05% 34.43%
Sharpe 0.11 6.81 4.63 2.65 4.85
Sortino 0.07 7.47 4.81 2.64 4.90
Calmar 0.33 37.34 24.92 17.39 56.99
Omega 1.00 1.20 1.05 1.02 1.04
Max drawdown 0.34% 1.19% 4.06% 6.43% 7.02%
Ulcer index 0.0005 0.0055 0.0185 0.0288 0.0309
Drawdown episodes 7 12 12 28 44
Longest underwater (days) 8.2 21.7 21.7 13.3 8.2
Recovery factor 0.03 2.58 1.46 0.99 2.01
VaR 95% -0.000% -0.056% -1.381% -2.119% -2.129%
VaR 99% -0.217% -0.385% -1.699% -3.140% -3.407%
CVaR 95% -0.108% -0.221% -1.540% -2.629% -2.768%
Skew 0.13 4.44 1.94 0.88 1.40
Excess kurtosis 10.52 19.68 5.94 1.63 2.30
Best day 0.22% 2.70% 4.40% 5.49% 7.54%
Worst day -0.22% -0.39% -1.70% -3.14% -3.41%
Positive days 4 15 17 16 15
Negative days 8 12 12 13 14
Round trips 2 12 15 23 28
Winning / losing trades 2 / 0 12 / 0 15 / 0 23 / 0 28 / 0
Trades per day 0.07 0.40 0.50 0.77 0.93
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 0.0455 2.5563 3.9434 5.2780 7.4671
Average win 0.0455 2.5563 3.9434 5.2780 7.4671
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 0.0455 2.5563 3.9434 5.2780 7.4671
Max win streak 2 12 15 23 28
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 4.84% 19.67% 59.85% 85.99% 91.40%
Turnover 0.00 0.03 0.06 0.12 0.21
Realised P&L 0.09 30.68 59.15 121.39 209.08
Unrealised P&L -0.00 -0.00 -0.00 -57.76 -67.67
Fees paid 0.15 2.20 7.08 14.07 19.32
Fee drag 0.02% 0.22% 0.71% 1.41% 1.93%
Final equity 1000.09 1030.68 1059.15 1063.63 1141.41

5m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return -0.70% -0.86% 2.36% 6.94% 11.48%
CAGR -8.14% -9.97% 32.86% 126.22% 275.36%
Buy and hold 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83%
Edge vs B&H -22.52% -22.69% -19.47% -14.89% -10.34%
Volatility (ann.) 2.41% 5.52% 19.24% 29.41% 34.92%
Sharpe -3.52 -1.87 1.57 2.92 3.96
Sortino -2.84 -1.63 1.52 2.93 4.05
Calmar -9.40 -5.06 6.64 19.44 38.66
Omega 0.94 0.97 1.02 1.03 1.04
Max drawdown 0.87% 1.97% 4.95% 6.49% 7.12%
Ulcer index 0.0027 0.0069 0.0219 0.0282 0.0315
Drawdown episodes 5 10 23 31 35
Longest underwater (days) 22.3 16.0 21.7 10.1 9.6
Recovery factor -0.80 -0.44 0.48 1.07 1.61
VaR 95% -0.161% -0.316% -1.544% -1.908% -2.075%
VaR 99% -0.212% -0.414% -2.605% -3.204% -3.477%
CVaR 95% -0.186% -0.365% -2.074% -2.556% -2.776%
Skew -1.62 -0.12 0.34 0.83 1.24
Excess kurtosis 1.76 1.06 1.84 1.21 1.88
Best day 0.06% 0.43% 2.92% 5.22% 6.26%
Worst day -0.21% -0.41% -2.60% -3.20% -3.48%
Positive days 10 13 14 16 16
Negative days 13 13 14 14 14
Round trips 2 6 12 13 17
Winning / losing trades 2 / 0 6 / 0 12 / 0 13 / 0 17 / 0
Trades per day 0.07 0.20 0.40 0.43 0.57
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 0.0168 0.8666 4.4563 9.8554 10.6941
Average win 0.0168 0.8666 4.4563 9.8554 10.6941
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 0.0168 0.8666 4.4563 9.8554 10.6941
Max win streak 2 6 12 13 17
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 30.45% 48.54% 71.14% 80.81% 91.19%
Turnover 0.00 0.01 0.05 0.13 0.18
Realised P&L 0.03 5.20 53.48 128.12 181.80
Unrealised P&L -6.99 -13.79 -29.85 -58.72 -66.95
Fees paid 0.16 1.14 5.60 8.02 11.53
Fee drag 0.02% 0.11% 0.56% 0.80% 1.15%
Final equity 993.05 991.40 1023.63 1069.40 1114.85

Every number on this page is read from the run record that produced it — the audit pipeline writes the page and the record together, so the two cannot drift apart.

What the guard is, and what a better number under it means. The break-even guard refuses any exit below average entry plus fees. It cannot improve a strategy's judgement — it can only stop it selling at a loss, which means holding the position instead. Across the pack that turns a strategy that churned into one that buys and waits: trade counts collapse and time in market rises towards 100%. In a window where the asset itself rose, that reads as a much better return while being strictly less of a strategy.

So read the return next to round trips, time in market and edge vs buy and hold. The last of those is the one that matters: not one strategy in this matrix beat simply holding the asset, in either run.

Ignore the win rate and the profit factor under the guard. Both count closed trades only, and the guard closes nothing at a loss — in all 101 guarded runs the number of losing closed trades is exactly zero. So the win rate goes to 100% and the profit factor becomes undefined for arithmetic reasons, while the losses sit in the position that is still open. The unrealised row is where they went.