← MACD_Cross

MACD_Cross — metrics

Unguarded: PASSGuarded: PASSDirectionalgunbot-quant

BTCUSDT · 2026-08-13 01:50 → 2026-09-12 01:50 UTC (30 days) · 0.03% fee + 2 bps slippage · 1,000 quote, one figure for every cell

The same document for both runs of the same measurement — first as the strategy ships, then with the break-even guard. Everything else about the two runs is identical.

As it ships PASS

Exits: the strategy's own exits, stops included

The metric set the portfolio dashboard reports, computed per cell so a backtested configuration and a running one read on the same axes. Portfolio-level measures (concentration, pairwise correlation, beta against a benchmark) are omitted: one strategy on one pair has no cross-sectional structure to measure, and printing a null would imply the number exists.

1m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return -15.38% -27.56% -52.01% -69.95% -73.60%
CAGR -86.89% -98.02% -99.99% -100.00% -100.00%
Buy and hold 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88%
Edge vs B&H -37.26% -49.44% -73.89% -91.83% -95.48%
Volatility (ann.) 3.10% 7.14% 16.80% 24.82% 27.24%
Sharpe -65.50 -54.91 -53.08 -58.82 -59.35
Sortino -49.32 -47.69 -49.43 -57.92 -59.50
Calmar -5.65 -3.56 -1.92 -1.43 -1.36
Omega 0.60 0.64 0.68 0.68 0.68
Max drawdown 15.39% 27.57% 52.01% 69.96% 73.62%
Ulcer index 0.0883 0.1589 0.3111 0.4408 0.4717
Drawdown episodes 2 2 2 2 2
Longest underwater (days) 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0
Recovery factor -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00
VaR 95% -0.734% -1.525% -3.660% -5.929% -6.509%
VaR 99% -0.783% -1.527% -3.954% -6.424% -6.903%
CVaR 95% -0.759% -1.526% -3.807% -6.177% -6.706%
Skew 1.90 2.18 1.68 1.28 1.13
Excess kurtosis 5.08 5.00 3.16 1.83 1.56
Best day 0.07% 0.40% 1.06% 0.87% 0.66%
Worst day -0.78% -1.53% -3.95% -6.42% -6.90%
Positive days 1 2 1 1 1
Negative days 29 28 29 29 29
Round trips 1,750 1,750 1,750 1,750 1,750
Winning / losing trades 143 / 1,607 130 / 1,620 165 / 1,585 248 / 1,502 250 / 1,500
Trades per day 58.33 58.33 58.33 58.33 58.33
Win rate 8.17% 7.43% 9.43% 14.17% 14.29%
Profit factor 0.18 0.21 0.28 0.30 0.30
Payoff ratio 2.00 2.56 2.68 1.83 1.80
Expectancy -0.0879 -0.1575 -0.2972 -0.3997 -0.4206
Average win 0.2326 0.5493 1.2172 1.2241 1.2650
Average loss 0.1164 0.2142 0.4548 0.6678 0.7015
Average trade -0.0879 -0.1575 -0.2972 -0.3997 -0.4206
Max win streak 2 2 3 3 3
Max loss streak 117 117 106 54 54
Time in market 33.32% 39.91% 44.27% 47.31% 48.17%
Turnover 0.22 0.42 0.92 1.31 1.37
Realised P&L -153.79 -275.61 -520.06 -699.50 -736.03
Unrealised P&L 0.01 0.03 0.07 0.19 0.19
Fees paid 105.94 191.84 366.40 472.95 487.88
Fee drag 10.59% 19.19% 36.65% 47.31% 48.80%
Final equity 846.19 724.35 479.89 300.44 263.91

3m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return -3.64% -7.11% -17.85% -25.75% -28.60%
CAGR -36.34% -59.25% -90.86% -97.33% -98.34%
Buy and hold 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86%
Edge vs B&H -25.50% -28.97% -39.71% -47.61% -50.46%
Volatility (ann.) 3.18% 6.96% 16.00% 23.00% 25.40%
Sharpe -14.17 -12.86 -14.87 -15.63 -16.01
Sortino -12.34 -12.13 -14.79 -16.27 -16.74
Calmar -9.04 -7.29 -4.76 -3.53 -3.19
Omega 0.82 0.84 0.83 0.84 0.84
Max drawdown 4.02% 8.12% 19.10% 27.55% 30.83%
Ulcer index 0.0211 0.0435 0.1034 0.1478 0.1661
Drawdown episodes 3 8 6 7 10
Longest underwater (days) 21.7 21.7 21.7 21.7 21.7
Recovery factor -0.91 -0.88 -0.93 -0.93 -0.93
VaR 95% -0.293% -0.657% -1.672% -2.752% -2.859%
VaR 99% -0.355% -0.689% -1.824% -2.761% -3.238%
CVaR 95% -0.324% -0.673% -1.748% -2.756% -3.048%
Skew 2.82 2.67 1.88 1.77 1.73
Excess kurtosis 9.15 7.79 3.67 3.50 3.28
Best day 0.88% 1.70% 2.55% 3.76% 4.21%
Worst day -0.36% -0.69% -1.82% -2.76% -3.24%
Positive days 5 3 3 4 5
Negative days 24 26 26 25 24
Round trips 560 560 560 560 560
Winning / losing trades 88 / 472 80 / 480 79 / 481 119 / 441 122 / 438
Trades per day 18.67 18.67 18.67 18.67 18.67
Win rate 15.71% 14.29% 14.11% 21.25% 21.79%
Profit factor 0.49 0.50 0.49 0.55 0.55
Payoff ratio 2.63 2.97 3.00 2.05 1.97
Expectancy -0.0651 -0.1270 -0.3188 -0.4598 -0.5107
Average win 0.3997 0.8743 2.1924 2.6657 2.8487
Average loss 0.1517 0.2939 0.7312 1.3032 1.4464
Average trade -0.0651 -0.1270 -0.3188 -0.4598 -0.5107
Max win streak 4 4 3 4 4
Max loss streak 44 49 44 28 28
Time in market 37.06% 43.72% 47.37% 49.31% 49.86%
Turnover 0.11 0.21 0.52 0.89 0.98
Realised P&L -36.43 -71.12 -178.50 -257.49 -285.99
Unrealised P&L -0.00 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00
Fees paid 35.36 66.78 150.93 226.12 245.57
Fee drag 3.54% 6.68% 15.09% 22.61% 24.56%
Final equity 963.57 928.88 821.50 742.51 714.01

5m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return -2.76% -5.42% -8.90% -16.61% -17.66%
CAGR -28.85% -49.23% -67.85% -89.03% -90.60%
Buy and hold 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83%
Edge vs B&H -24.59% -27.25% -30.73% -38.44% -39.49%
Volatility (ann.) 3.46% 7.43% 17.07% 23.33% 25.72%
Sharpe -9.82 -9.08 -6.56 -9.36 -9.07
Sortino -8.70 -8.58 -7.12 -10.09 -9.85
Calmar -8.66 -7.45 -4.46 -3.90 -3.75
Omega 0.83 0.84 0.90 0.88 0.88
Max drawdown 3.33% 6.61% 15.20% 22.85% 24.17%
Ulcer index 0.0189 0.0363 0.0781 0.1168 0.1244
Drawdown episodes 9 8 23 22 21
Longest underwater (days) 21.7 21.7 21.7 21.7 21.7
Recovery factor -0.83 -0.82 -0.59 -0.73 -0.73
VaR 95% -0.267% -0.527% -1.258% -2.503% -2.607%
VaR 99% -0.307% -0.541% -1.301% -2.606% -2.690%
CVaR 95% -0.287% -0.534% -1.280% -2.555% -2.649%
Skew 2.79 2.87 2.73 2.17 2.23
Excess kurtosis 7.09 7.38 7.71 5.45 5.67
Best day 0.75% 1.42% 5.42% 5.96% 6.40%
Worst day -0.31% -0.54% -1.30% -2.61% -2.69%
Positive days 3 3 5 5 5
Negative days 27 27 25 25 25
Round trips 342 342 342 342 342
Winning / losing trades 43 / 299 43 / 299 38 / 304 70 / 272 70 / 272
Trades per day 11.40 11.40 11.40 11.40 11.40
Win rate 12.57% 12.57% 11.11% 20.47% 20.47%
Profit factor 0.51 0.49 0.68 0.63 0.64
Payoff ratio 3.55 3.39 5.40 2.45 2.48
Expectancy -0.0807 -0.1585 -0.2604 -0.4857 -0.5164
Average win 0.6703 1.2007 4.8703 4.0299 4.4398
Average loss 0.1887 0.3539 0.9017 1.6478 1.7919
Average trade -0.0807 -0.1585 -0.2604 -0.4857 -0.5164
Max win streak 2 2 2 2 2
Max loss streak 42 42 27 17 17
Time in market 38.07% 44.99% 49.79% 51.19% 51.22%
Turnover 0.09 0.16 0.46 0.73 0.80
Realised P&L -27.59 -54.19 -89.04 -166.11 -176.62
Unrealised P&L 0.00 0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.00
Fees paid 20.72 38.62 94.24 146.38 158.33
Fee drag 2.07% 3.86% 9.42% 14.64% 15.83%
Final equity 972.41 945.81 910.96 833.89 823.38

Every number on this page is read from the run record that produced it — the audit pipeline writes the page and the record together, so the two cannot drift apart.

With the break-even guard PASS

Exits: no exit below average entry plus fees, stops included

The metric set the portfolio dashboard reports, computed per cell so a backtested configuration and a running one read on the same axes. Portfolio-level measures (concentration, pairwise correlation, beta against a benchmark) are omitted: one strategy on one pair has no cross-sectional structure to measure, and printing a null would imply the number exists.

1m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 1.41% 1.37% 4.00% 12.02% 13.63%
CAGR 18.63% 17.96% 61.13% 297.97% 373.53%
Buy and hold 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88%
Edge vs B&H -20.47% -20.51% -17.88% -9.86% -8.25%
Volatility (ann.) 3.91% 9.10% 24.08% 31.22% 34.09%
Sharpe 4.39 1.86 2.10 4.58 4.73
Sortino 4.43 1.82 2.02 4.57 4.75
Calmar 31.26 7.54 10.44 46.90 54.23
Omega 1.02 1.01 1.01 1.02 1.02
Max drawdown 0.60% 2.38% 5.86% 6.35% 6.89%
Ulcer index 0.0028 0.0082 0.0206 0.0235 0.0251
Drawdown episodes 51 35 50 99 98
Longest underwater (days) 8.2 9.7 9.7 8.2 8.2
Recovery factor 2.37 0.57 0.68 1.89 1.98
VaR 95% -0.175% -0.517% -1.274% -1.690% -1.653%
VaR 99% -0.301% -0.566% -1.402% -1.814% -1.814%
CVaR 95% -0.238% -0.542% -1.338% -1.752% -1.733%
Skew 1.50 1.17 1.38 1.46 1.61
Excess kurtosis 2.46 2.25 1.78 1.96 2.40
Best day 0.72% 1.32% 3.36% 5.32% 5.96%
Worst day -0.30% -0.57% -1.40% -1.81% -1.81%
Positive days 17 16 17 17 17
Negative days 13 14 13 13 13
Round trips 60 48 41 53 55
Winning / losing trades 60 / 0 48 / 0 41 / 0 53 / 0 55 / 0
Trades per day 2.00 1.60 1.37 1.77 1.83
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 0.3112 0.6879 2.1950 3.3468 3.6282
Average win 0.3112 0.6879 2.1950 3.3468 3.6282
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 0.3112 0.6879 2.1950 3.3468 3.6282
Max win streak 60 48 41 53 55
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 96.94% 97.94% 98.17% 97.59% 97.50%
Turnover 0.02 0.03 0.09 0.18 0.20
Realised P&L 18.67 33.02 89.99 177.38 199.55
Unrealised P&L -4.53 -19.35 -50.01 -57.19 -63.25
Fees paid 5.71 9.67 20.46 32.07 36.29
Fee drag 0.57% 0.97% 2.05% 3.21% 3.63%
Final equity 1014.10 1013.60 1039.86 1119.94 1136.05

3m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 1.37% 2.88% 7.05% 9.96% 11.04%
CAGR 18.05% 41.23% 129.13% 217.34% 257.54%
Buy and hold 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86%
Edge vs B&H -20.49% -18.98% -14.81% -11.90% -10.82%
Volatility (ann.) 4.31% 8.76% 20.61% 31.37% 33.97%
Sharpe 3.87 3.99 4.13 3.84 3.92
Sortino 3.89 4.05 4.25 3.83 3.92
Calmar 21.45 25.03 25.49 34.90 38.72
Omega 1.03 1.04 1.04 1.03 1.03
Max drawdown 0.84% 1.65% 5.07% 6.23% 6.65%
Ulcer index 0.0039 0.0076 0.0219 0.0288 0.0310
Drawdown episodes 34 30 29 49 49
Longest underwater (days) 9.7 9.7 21.7 9.7 9.7
Recovery factor 1.63 1.75 1.39 1.60 1.66
VaR 95% -0.259% -0.507% -1.584% -1.958% -2.129%
VaR 99% -0.424% -0.828% -2.551% -3.140% -3.407%
CVaR 95% -0.341% -0.667% -2.067% -2.549% -2.768%
Skew 1.82 1.90 1.19 1.15 1.19
Excess kurtosis 4.93 4.89 1.89 1.47 1.50
Best day 1.06% 2.15% 3.97% 6.10% 6.70%
Worst day -0.42% -0.83% -2.55% -3.14% -3.41%
Positive days 15 14 15 15 15
Negative days 14 15 14 14 14
Round trips 34 33 31 34 34
Winning / losing trades 34 / 0 33 / 0 31 / 0 34 / 0 34 / 0
Trades per day 1.13 1.10 1.03 1.13 1.13
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 0.6100 1.2977 3.2605 4.6673 5.1222
Average win 0.6100 1.2977 3.2605 4.6673 5.1222
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 0.6100 1.2977 3.2605 4.6673 5.1222
Max win streak 34 33 31 34 34
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 95.40% 95.94% 96.10% 95.75% 95.75%
Turnover 0.02 0.04 0.10 0.16 0.17
Realised P&L 20.74 42.82 101.08 158.69 174.15
Unrealised P&L -7.01 -14.04 -30.56 -59.13 -63.76
Fees paid 3.15 6.24 15.49 20.43 22.64
Fee drag 0.32% 0.62% 1.55% 2.04% 2.26%
Final equity 1013.73 1028.78 1070.52 1099.56 1110.39

5m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 2.71% 4.89% 7.83% 12.03% 12.61%
CAGR 38.47% 78.70% 150.34% 298.40% 324.03%
Buy and hold 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83%
Edge vs B&H -19.12% -16.94% -14.00% -9.80% -9.22%
Volatility (ann.) 4.47% 8.64% 21.52% 30.30% 34.69%
Sharpe 7.31 6.76 4.37 4.71 4.34
Sortino 8.60 7.62 4.49 4.86 4.45
Calmar 52.31 48.15 28.44 47.67 46.64
Omega 1.10 1.11 1.05 1.05 1.05
Max drawdown 0.74% 1.63% 5.29% 6.26% 6.95%
Ulcer index 0.0040 0.0100 0.0211 0.0269 0.0305
Drawdown episodes 37 35 33 43 43
Longest underwater (days) 21.7 21.7 21.7 9.6 9.6
Recovery factor 3.69 2.99 1.48 1.92 1.81
VaR 95% -0.217% -0.372% -1.280% -1.908% -2.692%
VaR 99% -0.289% -0.495% -1.735% -3.204% -3.477%
CVaR 95% -0.253% -0.434% -1.507% -2.556% -3.085%
Skew 3.24 3.36 2.26 1.47 1.30
Excess kurtosis 11.40 11.79 6.25 2.82 2.46
Best day 1.85% 3.50% 5.99% 7.26% 7.91%
Worst day -0.29% -0.50% -1.73% -3.20% -3.48%
Positive days 15 15 16 16 16
Negative days 15 15 14 14 14
Round trips 26 26 23 24 25
Winning / losing trades 26 / 0 26 / 0 23 / 0 24 / 0 25 / 0
Trades per day 0.87 0.87 0.77 0.80 0.83
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 1.2254 2.2004 5.4194 7.3989 7.7686
Average win 1.2254 2.2004 5.4194 7.3989 7.7686
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 1.2254 2.2004 5.4194 7.3989 7.7686
Max win streak 26 26 23 24 25
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 94.40% 94.62% 95.44% 94.98% 94.79%
Turnover 0.03 0.06 0.12 0.18 0.19
Realised P&L 31.86 57.21 124.65 177.57 194.21
Unrealised P&L -4.75 -8.34 -46.30 -57.26 -68.14
Fees paid 2.35 4.61 10.94 14.75 16.82
Fee drag 0.23% 0.46% 1.09% 1.48% 1.68%
Final equity 1027.11 1048.87 1078.34 1120.32 1126.07

Every number on this page is read from the run record that produced it — the audit pipeline writes the page and the record together, so the two cannot drift apart.

What the guard is, and what a better number under it means. The break-even guard refuses any exit below average entry plus fees. It cannot improve a strategy's judgement — it can only stop it selling at a loss, which means holding the position instead. Across the pack that turns a strategy that churned into one that buys and waits: trade counts collapse and time in market rises towards 100%. In a window where the asset itself rose, that reads as a much better return while being strictly less of a strategy.

So read the return next to round trips, time in market and edge vs buy and hold. The last of those is the one that matters: not one strategy in this matrix beat simply holding the asset, in either run.

Ignore the win rate and the profit factor under the guard. Both count closed trades only, and the guard closes nothing at a loss — in all 101 guarded runs the number of losing closed trades is exactly zero. So the win rate goes to 100% and the profit factor becomes undefined for arithmetic reasons, while the losses sit in the position that is still open. The unrealised row is where they went.