← MACD_Momentum_MM

MACD_Momentum_MM — metrics

Unguarded: PASSGuarded: PASSMM-DCAgunbot-quant

BTCUSDT · 2026-08-13 01:50 → 2026-09-12 01:50 UTC (30 days) · 0.03% fee + 2 bps slippage · 122 quote, one figure for every cell

The same document for both runs of the same measurement — first as the strategy ships, then with the break-even guard. Everything else about the two runs is identical.

As it ships PASS

Exits: the strategy's own exits, stops included

The metric set the portfolio dashboard reports, computed per cell so a backtested configuration and a running one read on the same axes. Portfolio-level measures (concentration, pairwise correlation, beta against a benchmark) are omitted: one strategy on one pair has no cross-sectional structure to measure, and printing a null would imply the number exists.

1m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return -9.32% -12.95% -18.81% -25.35% -32.40%
CAGR -69.58% -81.50% -92.08% -97.15% -99.15%
Buy and hold 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88%
Edge vs B&H -31.20% -34.83% -40.69% -47.23% -54.28%
Volatility (ann.) 4.31% 6.17% 9.40% 12.44% 16.02%
Sharpe -27.62 -27.34 -26.94 -28.53 -29.65
Sortino -24.85 -24.67 -24.32 -25.50 -26.40
Calmar -7.38 -6.22 -4.84 -3.82 -3.05
Omega 0.69 0.70 0.70 0.70 0.70
Max drawdown 9.43% 13.11% 19.04% 25.45% 32.53%
Ulcer index 0.0533 0.0739 0.1063 0.1431 0.1854
Drawdown episodes 1 1 1 1 1
Longest underwater (days) 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7
Recovery factor -0.99 -0.99 -0.99 -1.00 -1.00
VaR 95% -0.853% -1.178% -1.793% -2.503% -3.342%
VaR 99% -0.952% -1.357% -1.995% -2.630% -3.623%
CVaR 95% -0.903% -1.267% -1.894% -2.567% -3.482%
Skew -0.76 -0.75 -0.72 -0.63 -0.61
Excess kurtosis -0.32 -0.35 -0.41 -0.54 -0.43
Best day 0.02% 0.03% 0.05% 0.07% 0.10%
Worst day -0.95% -1.36% -1.99% -2.63% -3.62%
Positive days 2 2 2 2 2
Negative days 28 28 28 28 28
Round trips 432 432 430 430 430
Winning / losing trades 141 / 291 140 / 292 139 / 291 136 / 294 134 / 296
Trades per day 14.40 14.40 14.33 14.33 14.33
Win rate 32.64% 32.41% 32.33% 31.63% 31.16%
Profit factor 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.22 0.23
Payoff ratio 0.43 0.45 0.44 0.47 0.52
Expectancy -0.0263 -0.0366 -0.0534 -0.0719 -0.0919
Average win 0.0209 0.0306 0.0440 0.0629 0.0904
Average loss 0.0492 0.0688 0.0999 0.1343 0.1745
Average trade -0.0263 -0.0366 -0.0534 -0.0719 -0.0919
Max win streak 6 6 6 6 6
Max loss streak 10 10 10 10 10
Time in market 9.84% 9.85% 9.92% 10.01% 10.03%
Turnover 0.14 0.20 0.29 0.39 0.52
Realised P&L -11.37 -15.80 -22.95 -30.93 -39.53
Unrealised P&L 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fees paid 7.17 10.03 14.43 19.17 24.75
Fee drag 5.87% 8.22% 11.82% 15.72% 20.29%
Final equity 110.63 106.20 99.05 91.07 82.47

3m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return -4.74% -6.54% -9.01% -12.63% -16.68%
CAGR -44.59% -56.09% -68.31% -80.66% -89.13%
Buy and hold 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86%
Edge vs B&H -26.60% -28.40% -30.87% -34.49% -38.54%
Volatility (ann.) 4.53% 6.41% 9.58% 12.98% 15.76%
Sharpe -13.01 -12.81 -11.94 -12.59 -14.01
Sortino -12.16 -11.98 -11.28 -11.81 -13.07
Calmar -9.35 -8.52 -7.53 -6.34 -5.31
Omega 0.79 0.80 0.81 0.80 0.79
Max drawdown 4.77% 6.59% 9.08% 12.72% 16.79%
Ulcer index 0.0229 0.0314 0.0425 0.0609 0.0819
Drawdown episodes 1 1 1 1 1
Longest underwater (days) 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8
Recovery factor -0.99 -0.99 -0.99 -0.99 -0.99
VaR 95% -0.439% -0.619% -0.909% -1.274% -1.590%
VaR 99% -0.450% -0.636% -0.968% -1.281% -1.695%
CVaR 95% -0.445% -0.627% -0.939% -1.277% -1.642%
Skew -0.61 -0.67 -0.57 -0.48 -0.33
Excess kurtosis 0.12 0.11 0.18 -0.12 -0.15
Best day 0.08% 0.12% 0.29% 0.40% 0.53%
Worst day -0.45% -0.64% -0.97% -1.28% -1.69%
Positive days 2 2 2 3 3
Negative days 27 27 27 26 26
Round trips 250 248 247 243 243
Winning / losing trades 95 / 155 94 / 154 94 / 153 90 / 153 86 / 157
Trades per day 8.33 8.27 8.23 8.10 8.10
Win rate 38.00% 37.90% 38.06% 37.04% 35.39%
Profit factor 0.32 0.33 0.35 0.35 0.36
Payoff ratio 0.52 0.54 0.57 0.59 0.65
Expectancy -0.0231 -0.0322 -0.0445 -0.0634 -0.0837
Average win 0.0287 0.0414 0.0629 0.0906 0.1315
Average loss 0.0549 0.0771 0.1105 0.1540 0.2016
Average trade -0.0231 -0.0322 -0.0445 -0.0634 -0.0837
Max win streak 5 5 5 5 5
Max loss streak 13 13 13 13 13
Time in market 16.24% 16.30% 16.41% 16.54% 16.65%
Turnover 0.09 0.13 0.19 0.26 0.35
Realised P&L -5.78 -7.98 -10.99 -15.41 -20.34
Unrealised P&L 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fees paid 4.39 6.11 8.83 11.87 14.58
Fee drag 3.60% 5.00% 7.23% 9.73% 11.95%
Final equity 116.22 114.02 111.01 106.59 101.66

5m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return -1.30% -1.86% -2.33% -3.53% -6.67%
CAGR -14.68% -20.47% -24.93% -35.44% -56.80%
Buy and hold 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83%
Edge vs B&H -23.13% -23.69% -24.16% -25.36% -28.49%
Volatility (ann.) 4.37% 6.22% 9.32% 12.71% 14.78%
Sharpe -3.61 -3.65 -3.03 -3.38 -5.60
Sortino -3.53 -3.56 -3.02 -3.31 -5.40
Calmar -10.16 -9.81 -9.03 -8.95 -8.13
Omega 0.92 0.92 0.93 0.93 0.89
Max drawdown 1.44% 2.09% 2.76% 3.96% 6.99%
Ulcer index 0.0061 0.0092 0.0115 0.0169 0.0318
Drawdown episodes 6 9 8 9 9
Longest underwater (days) 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8
Recovery factor -0.90 -0.89 -0.84 -0.89 -0.95
VaR 95% -0.258% -0.363% -0.489% -0.766% -1.024%
VaR 99% -0.268% -0.385% -0.560% -0.772% -1.197%
CVaR 95% -0.263% -0.374% -0.525% -0.769% -1.111%
Skew 0.04 -0.05 0.28 0.15 0.15
Excess kurtosis -0.77 -0.67 -0.14 -0.23 -0.38
Best day 0.17% 0.24% 0.54% 0.74% 0.75%
Worst day -0.27% -0.39% -0.56% -0.77% -1.20%
Positive days 9 9 9 9 7
Negative days 21 21 21 21 23
Round trips 179 177 174 172 171
Winning / losing trades 92 / 87 90 / 87 87 / 87 85 / 87 79 / 92
Trades per day 5.97 5.90 5.80 5.73 5.70
Win rate 51.40% 50.85% 50.00% 49.42% 46.20%
Profit factor 0.68 0.68 0.71 0.70 0.60
Payoff ratio 0.65 0.66 0.71 0.72 0.70
Expectancy -0.0088 -0.0129 -0.0163 -0.0251 -0.0476
Average win 0.0370 0.0533 0.0812 0.1191 0.1571
Average loss 0.0573 0.0812 0.1139 0.1659 0.2233
Average trade -0.0088 -0.0129 -0.0163 -0.0251 -0.0476
Max win streak 7 7 7 7 7
Max loss streak 11 11 11 11 11
Time in market 17.24% 17.56% 17.89% 17.95% 17.96%
Turnover 0.07 0.10 0.14 0.20 0.27
Realised P&L -1.58 -2.27 -2.84 -4.31 -8.13
Unrealised P&L 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fees paid 3.15 4.38 6.25 8.57 10.26
Fee drag 2.58% 3.59% 5.12% 7.02% 8.41%
Final equity 120.42 119.73 119.16 117.69 113.87

Every number on this page is read from the run record that produced it — the audit pipeline writes the page and the record together, so the two cannot drift apart.

With the break-even guard PASS

Exits: no exit below average entry plus fees, stops included

The metric set the portfolio dashboard reports, computed per cell so a backtested configuration and a running one read on the same axes. Portfolio-level measures (concentration, pairwise correlation, beta against a benchmark) are omitted: one strategy on one pair has no cross-sectional structure to measure, and printing a null would imply the number exists.

1m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 1.52% 2.03% 3.50% 4.09% 0.25%
CAGR 20.22% 27.63% 51.93% 62.91% 3.07%
Buy and hold 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88%
Edge vs B&H -20.36% -19.86% -18.38% -17.79% -21.63%
Volatility (ann.) 9.49% 13.24% 22.76% 26.55% 26.97%
Sharpe 1.99 1.91 1.95 1.97 0.25
Sortino 1.93 1.85 1.90 1.91 0.23
Calmar 10.19 10.01 10.36 11.51 0.64
Omega 1.01 1.01 1.01 1.01 1.00
Max drawdown 1.98% 2.76% 5.01% 5.47% 4.82%
Ulcer index 0.0066 0.0092 0.0159 0.0182 0.0203
Drawdown episodes 360 341 427 360 275
Longest underwater (days) 6.9 6.9 6.6 6.9 8.0
Recovery factor 0.77 0.73 0.70 0.75 0.05
VaR 95% -0.748% -1.045% -1.968% -2.099% -1.693%
VaR 99% -1.281% -1.782% -3.256% -3.532% -2.864%
CVaR 95% -1.014% -1.413% -2.612% -2.816% -2.279%
Skew 0.49 0.48 0.57 0.52 0.38
Excess kurtosis 3.19 3.21 4.60 3.23 1.63
Best day 1.69% 2.34% 4.37% 4.72% 3.51%
Worst day -1.28% -1.78% -3.26% -3.53% -2.86%
Positive days 18 18 19 18 16
Negative days 12 12 11 12 14
Round trips 115 115 128 116 76
Winning / losing trades 115 / 0 115 / 0 128 / 0 116 / 0 76 / 0
Trades per day 3.83 3.83 4.27 3.87 2.53
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 0.0233 0.0314 0.0460 0.0630 0.0703
Average win 0.0233 0.0314 0.0460 0.0630 0.0703
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 0.0233 0.0314 0.0460 0.0630 0.0703
Max win streak 115 115 128 116 76
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 77.11% 77.10% 75.09% 77.12% 88.06%
Turnover 0.02 0.03 0.05 0.06 0.04
Realised P&L 2.67 3.61 5.89 7.30 5.34
Unrealised P&L -0.81 -1.14 -1.63 -2.31 -5.04
Fees paid 2.09 2.93 4.94 5.98 4.59
Fee drag 1.72% 2.40% 4.05% 4.90% 3.76%
Final equity 123.86 124.47 126.27 126.99 122.30

3m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 1.95% 2.61% 4.87% 5.10% 1.29%
CAGR 26.42% 36.90% 78.27% 83.07% 16.94%
Buy and hold 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86%
Edge vs B&H -19.91% -19.25% -16.99% -16.76% -20.57%
Volatility (ann.) 9.05% 12.61% 20.80% 25.11% 24.32%
Sharpe 2.64 2.55 2.88 2.53 0.77
Sortino 2.67 2.58 2.92 2.56 0.75
Calmar 15.24 15.30 17.92 17.43 3.61
Omega 1.02 1.02 1.03 1.02 1.01
Max drawdown 1.73% 2.41% 4.37% 4.77% 4.69%
Ulcer index 0.0052 0.0073 0.0123 0.0144 0.0178
Drawdown episodes 270 262 398 341 194
Longest underwater (days) 6.6 6.6 6.5 6.6 8.2
Recovery factor 1.12 1.08 1.11 1.07 0.28
VaR 95% -0.737% -1.029% -1.924% -2.057% -1.650%
VaR 99% -1.100% -1.530% -2.734% -3.025% -2.552%
CVaR 95% -0.919% -1.279% -2.329% -2.541% -2.101%
Skew 0.33 0.37 0.14 0.35 0.02
Excess kurtosis 3.92 4.00 4.48 3.95 1.12
Best day 1.49% 2.09% 3.53% 4.12% 2.83%
Worst day -1.10% -1.53% -2.73% -3.02% -2.55%
Positive days 20 20 22 20 16
Negative days 9 9 7 9 13
Round trips 110 110 130 114 73
Winning / losing trades 110 / 0 110 / 0 130 / 0 114 / 0 73 / 0
Trades per day 3.67 3.67 4.33 3.80 2.43
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 0.0290 0.0394 0.0602 0.0749 0.0908
Average win 0.0290 0.0394 0.0602 0.0749 0.0908
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 0.0290 0.0394 0.0602 0.0749 0.0908
Max win streak 110 110 130 114 73
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 68.71% 68.60% 57.79% 68.41% 81.99%
Turnover 0.03 0.04 0.06 0.07 0.05
Realised P&L 3.19 4.33 7.82 8.53 6.63
Unrealised P&L -0.82 -1.14 -1.89 -2.32 -5.05
Fees paid 2.15 3.01 5.25 6.26 4.41
Fee drag 1.76% 2.47% 4.30% 5.13% 3.62%
Final equity 124.37 125.19 127.94 128.22 123.58

5m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 1.89% 2.67% 5.05% 5.38% 2.47%
CAGR 25.53% 37.76% 82.04% 89.15% 34.53%
Buy and hold 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83%
Edge vs B&H -19.94% -19.16% -16.78% -16.45% -19.36%
Volatility (ann.) 9.57% 13.36% 22.17% 26.86% 23.76%
Sharpe 2.42 2.47 2.81 2.51 1.37
Sortino 2.50 2.55 2.93 2.60 1.39
Calmar 15.99 17.01 20.68 20.20 9.55
Omega 1.03 1.03 1.03 1.03 1.01
Max drawdown 1.60% 2.22% 3.97% 4.41% 3.62%
Ulcer index 0.0051 0.0071 0.0115 0.0143 0.0129
Drawdown episodes 193 192 229 206 134
Longest underwater (days) 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.8
Recovery factor 1.18 1.20 1.27 1.22 0.68
VaR 95% -0.723% -1.008% -1.887% -2.023% -1.629%
VaR 99% -0.959% -1.333% -2.335% -2.651% -2.242%
CVaR 95% -0.841% -1.170% -2.111% -2.337% -1.935%
Skew 0.21 0.21 0.48 0.24 0.29
Excess kurtosis 1.59 1.61 2.94 1.46 1.24
Best day 1.32% 1.84% 3.46% 3.73% 2.94%
Worst day -0.96% -1.33% -2.33% -2.65% -2.24%
Positive days 20 20 21 20 18
Negative days 10 10 9 10 12
Round trips 66 67 84 68 54
Winning / losing trades 66 / 0 67 / 0 84 / 0 68 / 0 54 / 0
Trades per day 2.20 2.23 2.80 2.27 1.80
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 0.0443 0.0616 0.0892 0.1225 0.1121
Average win 0.0443 0.0616 0.0892 0.1225 0.1121
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 0.0443 0.0616 0.0892 0.1225 0.1121
Max win streak 66 67 84 68 54
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 69.42% 69.46% 57.84% 69.60% 75.28%
Turnover 0.02 0.03 0.06 0.07 0.05
Realised P&L 2.92 4.13 7.49 8.33 6.05
Unrealised P&L -0.62 -0.87 -1.33 -1.77 -3.04
Fees paid 1.33 1.88 3.49 3.83 3.27
Fee drag 1.09% 1.54% 2.86% 3.14% 2.68%
Final equity 124.30 125.25 128.16 128.56 125.01

Every number on this page is read from the run record that produced it — the audit pipeline writes the page and the record together, so the two cannot drift apart.

What the guard is, and what a better number under it means. The break-even guard refuses any exit below average entry plus fees. It cannot improve a strategy's judgement — it can only stop it selling at a loss, which means holding the position instead. Across the pack that turns a strategy that churned into one that buys and waits: trade counts collapse and time in market rises towards 100%. In a window where the asset itself rose, that reads as a much better return while being strictly less of a strategy.

So read the return next to round trips, time in market and edge vs buy and hold. The last of those is the one that matters: not one strategy in this matrix beat simply holding the asset, in either run.

Ignore the win rate and the profit factor under the guard. Both count closed trades only, and the guard closes nothing at a loss — in all 101 guarded runs the number of losing closed trades is exactly zero. So the win rate goes to 100% and the profit factor becomes undefined for arithmetic reasons, while the losses sit in the position that is still open. The unrealised row is where they went.