← MFI_Reversion

MFI_Reversion — metrics

Unguarded: PASSGuarded: FAIL · 3 failDirectionalgunbot-quant

BTCUSDT · 2026-08-13 01:50 → 2026-09-12 01:50 UTC (30 days) · 0.03% fee + 2 bps slippage · 1,000 quote, one figure for every cell

The same document for both runs of the same measurement — first as the strategy ships, then with the break-even guard. Everything else about the two runs is identical.

As it ships PASS

Exits: the strategy's own exits, stops included

The metric set the portfolio dashboard reports, computed per cell so a backtested configuration and a running one read on the same axes. Portfolio-level measures (concentration, pairwise correlation, beta against a benchmark) are omitted: one strategy on one pair has no cross-sectional structure to measure, and printing a null would imply the number exists.

1m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return -1.08% -4.24% -16.74% -14.19% 21.18%
CAGR -12.37% -40.95% -89.23% -84.47% 935.67%
Buy and hold 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88%
Edge vs B&H -22.96% -26.12% -38.62% -36.07% -0.70%
Volatility (ann.) 0.50% 1.58% 10.15% 24.81% 39.82%
Sharpe -26.65 -33.42 -21.90 -7.38 6.07
Sortino -17.80 -23.77 -14.71 -5.91 6.00
Calmar -11.38 -9.66 -5.20 -4.57 135.85
Omega 0.46 0.57 0.80 0.96 1.03
Max drawdown 1.09% 4.24% 17.15% 18.50% 6.89%
Ulcer index 0.0069 0.0246 0.0913 0.0913 0.0311
Drawdown episodes 1 1 1 41 121
Longest underwater (days) 29.9 29.9 29.9 21.7 8.2
Recovery factor -0.99 -1.00 -0.98 -0.77 3.08
VaR 95% -0.115% -0.333% -1.309% -1.967% -2.164%
VaR 99% -0.143% -0.453% -1.353% -2.652% -3.638%
CVaR 95% -0.129% -0.393% -1.331% -2.310% -2.901%
Skew -1.24 -1.01 0.26 1.52 1.49
Excess kurtosis 1.62 0.79 -1.16 3.11 2.13
Best day 0.02% -0.01% 0.32% 4.31% 8.45%
Worst day -0.14% -0.45% -1.35% -2.65% -3.64%
Positive days 2 0 4 9 16
Negative days 28 30 26 21 14
Round trips 110 215 338 282 4
Winning / losing trades 13 / 97 28 / 187 73 / 265 82 / 200 0 / 4
Trades per day 3.67 7.17 11.27 9.40 0.13
Win rate 11.82% 13.02% 21.60% 29.08% 0.00%
Profit factor 0.08 0.10 0.39 0.70 0.00
Payoff ratio 0.63 0.68 1.42 1.71 0.00
Expectancy -0.0981 -0.1971 -0.4949 -0.5025 -3.9703
Average win 0.0766 0.1713 1.4662 4.0325 0.0000
Average loss 0.1216 0.2522 1.0351 2.3618 3.9703
Average trade -0.0981 -0.1971 -0.4949 -0.5025 -3.9703
Max win streak 2 2 5 8 0
Max loss streak 27 39 33 22 4
Time in market 2.12% 6.63% 23.37% 55.61% 98.53%
Turnover 0.01 0.05 0.38 0.80 0.02
Realised P&L -10.80 -42.37 -167.27 -141.69 -15.88
Unrealised P&L -0.00 -0.00 -0.10 -0.24 227.71
Fees paid 6.49 24.65 110.42 135.72 2.68
Fee drag 0.65% 2.47% 11.04% 13.57% 0.27%
Final equity 989.20 957.63 832.63 858.07 1211.83

3m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return -0.20% -0.63% -6.28% 2.19% 21.12%
CAGR -2.38% -7.44% -54.58% 30.16% 929.58%
Buy and hold 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86%
Edge vs B&H -22.06% -22.49% -28.14% -19.67% -0.74%
Volatility (ann.) 0.32% 1.12% 10.50% 25.78% 38.89%
Sharpe -7.44 -6.88 -7.46 1.15 6.19
Sortino -5.42 -6.23 -5.64 0.98 6.19
Calmar -12.03 -11.75 -7.37 2.83 139.77
Omega 0.60 0.82 0.89 1.01 1.05
Max drawdown 0.20% 0.63% 7.41% 10.66% 6.65%
Ulcer index 0.0011 0.0039 0.0373 0.0433 0.0306
Drawdown episodes 1 1 11 68 81
Longest underwater (days) 29.1 29.7 21.9 18.0 8.2
Recovery factor -1.00 -1.00 -0.85 0.21 3.18
VaR 95% -0.029% -0.088% -0.661% -1.303% -2.129%
VaR 99% -0.043% -0.131% -1.237% -1.650% -3.407%
CVaR 95% -0.036% -0.109% -0.949% -1.476% -2.768%
Skew -1.82 -0.78 2.38 1.95 1.49
Excess kurtosis 3.06 0.63 8.87 3.40 1.97
Best day 0.00% 0.05% 1.84% 5.35% 8.20%
Worst day -0.04% -0.13% -1.24% -1.65% -3.41%
Positive days 6 7 4 8 15
Negative days 17 22 25 21 14
Round trips 21 55 104 72 2
Winning / losing trades 4 / 17 18 / 37 29 / 75 25 / 47 0 / 2
Trades per day 0.70 1.83 3.47 2.40 0.07
Win rate 19.05% 32.73% 27.88% 34.72% 0.00%
Profit factor 0.08 0.36 0.55 1.09 0.00
Payoff ratio 0.35 0.74 1.43 2.06 0.00
Expectancy -0.0943 -0.1151 -0.6039 0.3006 -7.2536
Average win 0.0445 0.1978 2.6676 10.1549 0.0000
Average loss 0.1269 0.2673 1.8688 4.9410 7.2536
Average trade -0.0943 -0.1151 -0.6039 0.3006 -7.2536
Max win streak 2 3 3 4 0
Max loss streak 8 14 14 10 2
Time in market 0.95% 5.80% 27.54% 63.79% 98.08%
Turnover 0.00 0.01 0.22 0.49 0.01
Realised P&L -1.98 -6.33 -62.80 21.65 -14.51
Unrealised P&L 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.25 225.68
Fees paid 1.12 5.91 34.39 39.72 1.49
Fee drag 0.11% 0.59% 3.44% 3.97% 0.15%
Final equity 998.02 993.67 937.20 1021.65 1210.92

5m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return -0.02% -0.23% 0.03% 6.92% 19.97%
CAGR -0.21% -2.71% 0.31% 125.67% 816.30%
Buy and hold 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83%
Edge vs B&H -21.85% -22.05% -21.80% -14.91% -1.86%
Volatility (ann.) 0.30% 1.29% 11.33% 27.83% 39.61%
Sharpe -0.69 -2.12 0.08 3.06 5.79
Sortino -0.54 -1.87 0.07 2.50 5.92
Calmar -2.05 -5.62 0.07 21.33 120.28
Omega 0.95 0.93 1.00 1.04 1.06
Max drawdown 0.10% 0.48% 4.45% 5.89% 6.79%
Ulcer index 0.0005 0.0028 0.0236 0.0276 0.0312
Drawdown episodes 51 2 39 35 53
Longest underwater (days) 15.3 29.8 21.0 21.7 8.2
Recovery factor -0.17 -0.47 0.01 1.17 2.94
VaR 95% -0.031% -0.073% -0.859% -1.207% -2.075%
VaR 99% -0.042% -0.155% -1.224% -1.631% -3.477%
CVaR 95% -0.036% -0.114% -1.042% -1.419% -2.776%
Skew -0.15 -0.48 2.61 1.92 1.50
Excess kurtosis 3.16 0.18 8.62 4.06 2.04
Best day 0.04% 0.08% 3.53% 6.44% 8.21%
Worst day -0.04% -0.15% -1.22% -1.63% -3.48%
Positive days 8 10 8 11 16
Negative days 13 19 21 18 14
Round trips 12 33 59 38 2
Winning / losing trades 5 / 7 13 / 20 24 / 35 14 / 24 0 / 2
Trades per day 0.40 1.10 1.97 1.27 0.07
Win rate 41.67% 39.39% 40.68% 36.84% 0.00%
Profit factor 0.85 0.68 1.00 1.42 0.00
Payoff ratio 1.19 1.05 1.46 2.43 0.00
Expectancy -0.0142 -0.0682 0.0043 1.8606 -9.5857
Average win 0.1915 0.3713 3.8121 17.1215 0.0000
Average loss 0.1612 0.3539 2.6068 7.0416 9.5857
Average trade -0.0142 -0.0682 0.0043 1.8606 -9.5857
Max win streak 4 4 9 4 0
Max loss streak 4 5 10 9 2
Time in market 1.06% 5.90% 25.97% 56.28% 97.36%
Turnover 0.00 0.01 0.18 0.41 0.02
Realised P&L -0.17 -2.25 0.25 70.70 -19.17
Unrealised P&L -0.00 -0.00 -0.00 -1.52 218.87
Fees paid 0.65 3.61 20.13 21.17 1.48
Fee drag 0.07% 0.36% 2.01% 2.12% 0.15%
Final equity 999.83 997.75 1000.25 1069.18 1199.70

Every number on this page is read from the run record that produced it — the audit pipeline writes the page and the record together, so the two cannot drift apart.

With the break-even guard FAIL · 3 fail

Exits: no exit below average entry plus fees, stops included

The metric set the portfolio dashboard reports, computed per cell so a backtested configuration and a running one read on the same axes. Portfolio-level measures (concentration, pairwise correlation, beta against a benchmark) are omitted: one strategy on one pair has no cross-sectional structure to measure, and printing a null would imply the number exists.

1m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return -0.12% -0.22% 4.93% 9.41% 21.61%
CAGR -1.46% -2.70% 79.54% 198.78% 980.62%
Buy and hold 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88%
Edge vs B&H -22.00% -22.11% -16.95% -12.47% -0.27%
Volatility (ann.) 1.58% 4.20% 20.16% 34.25% 40.00%
Sharpe -0.92 -0.63 3.00 3.37 6.15
Sortino -0.89 -0.60 2.99 3.26 6.12
Calmar -3.76 -2.90 15.54 32.02 142.37
Omega 0.99 1.00 1.02 1.02 1.03
Max drawdown 0.39% 0.93% 5.12% 6.21% 6.89%
Ulcer index 0.0010 0.0037 0.0177 0.0273 0.0309
Drawdown episodes 143 73 148 137 124
Longest underwater (days) 5.7 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2
Recovery factor -0.31 -0.24 0.96 1.52 3.14
VaR 95% -0.085% -0.302% -1.830% -1.991% -2.164%
VaR 99% -0.123% -0.520% -3.091% -3.354% -3.638%
CVaR 95% -0.104% -0.411% -2.461% -2.672% -2.901%
Skew -0.87 -0.09 0.45 0.53 1.48
Excess kurtosis 0.64 3.04 3.12 0.09 2.13
Best day 0.08% 0.54% 4.05% 4.31% 8.45%
Worst day -0.12% -0.52% -3.09% -3.35% -3.64%
Positive days 20 19 16 15 16
Negative days 10 11 14 15 14
Round trips 44 52 39 25 0
Winning / losing trades 44 / 0 52 / 0 39 / 0 25 / 0 0 / 0
Trades per day 1.47 1.73 1.30 0.83 0.00
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 0.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ 0.00
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ 0.00
Expectancy 0.0394 0.1053 1.6300 6.0635 0.0000
Average win 0.0394 0.1053 1.6300 6.0635 0.0000
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 0.0394 0.1053 1.6300 6.0635 0.0000
Max win streak 44 52 39 25 0
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 44.08% 74.65% 94.09% 98.02% 99.83%
Turnover 0.00 0.01 0.06 0.15 0.00
Realised P&L 1.73 5.48 63.57 151.59 0.00
Unrealised P&L -2.94 -7.72 -14.30 -57.46 216.07
Fees paid 2.65 6.28 16.94 14.95 0.30
Fee drag 0.27% 0.63% 1.69% 1.50% 0.03%
Final equity 998.80 997.75 1049.28 1094.13 1216.07

3m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 0.10% -0.20% 2.57% 13.32% 21.72%
CAGR 1.22% -2.37% 36.25% 358.07% 993.37%
Buy and hold 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86%
Edge vs B&H -21.76% -22.06% -19.29% -8.54% -0.14%
Volatility (ann.) 0.66% 3.05% 14.02% 30.51% 39.10%
Sharpe 1.85 -0.77 2.28 5.14 6.31
Sortino 1.89 -0.73 2.29 5.11 6.36
Calmar 10.16 -2.75 12.01 57.05 149.36
Omega 1.07 0.99 1.02 1.04 1.05
Max drawdown 0.12% 0.86% 3.02% 6.28% 6.65%
Ulcer index 0.0001 0.0025 0.0095 0.0228 0.0303
Drawdown episodes 69 107 64 92 84
Longest underwater (days) 7.2 8.0 8.0 9.5 8.2
Recovery factor 0.83 -0.23 0.85 2.12 3.27
VaR 95% -0.000% -0.187% -0.664% -1.248% -2.129%
VaR 99% -0.007% -0.244% -0.854% -1.723% -3.407%
CVaR 95% -0.004% -0.215% -0.759% -1.485% -2.768%
Skew 0.76 -1.26 1.63 1.40 1.48
Excess kurtosis 0.26 0.78 3.65 1.42 1.97
Best day 0.01% 0.10% 2.43% 5.35% 8.20%
Worst day -0.01% -0.24% -0.85% -1.72% -3.41%
Positive days 20 19 15 16 16
Negative days 9 10 14 13 13
Round trips 20 34 24 10 0
Winning / losing trades 20 / 0 34 / 0 24 / 0 10 / 0 0 / 0
Trades per day 0.67 1.13 0.80 0.33 0.00
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 0.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ 0.00
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ 0.00
Expectancy 0.0499 0.1500 2.1705 18.4760 0.0000
Average win 0.0499 0.1500 2.1705 18.4760 0.0000
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 0.0499 0.1500 2.1705 18.4760 0.0000
Max win streak 20 34 24 10 0
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 6.86% 46.24% 87.71% 96.48% 100.00%
Turnover 0.00 0.01 0.05 0.18 0.00
Realised P&L 1.00 5.10 52.09 184.76 0.00
Unrealised P&L 0.00 -7.07 -26.35 -51.56 217.17
Fees paid 1.10 3.76 10.16 6.32 0.30
Fee drag 0.11% 0.38% 1.02% 0.63% 0.03%
Final equity 1001.00 998.03 1025.75 1132.95 1216.92

5m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 0.15% 0.59% 4.85% 14.22% 21.48%
CAGR 1.79% 7.40% 78.03% 403.98% 966.75%
Buy and hold 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83%
Edge vs B&H -21.68% -21.24% -16.97% -7.61% -0.35%
Volatility (ann.) 0.42% 3.17% 17.63% 33.72% 39.78%
Sharpe 4.22 2.26 3.36 4.97 6.15
Sortino 4.58 2.30 3.50 5.02 6.37
Calmar 32.36 9.53 26.04 64.51 142.45
Omega 1.23 1.04 1.04 1.05 1.06
Max drawdown 0.06% 0.78% 3.00% 6.26% 6.79%
Ulcer index 0.0001 0.0012 0.0105 0.0231 0.0303
Drawdown episodes 73 58 91 83 59
Longest underwater (days) 3.8 5.4 8.1 8.2 8.2
Recovery factor 2.64 0.76 1.62 2.27 3.16
VaR 95% -0.000% -0.194% -1.016% -1.913% -2.075%
VaR 99% -0.000% -0.367% -1.553% -2.063% -3.477%
CVaR 95% -0.000% -0.280% -1.285% -1.988% -2.776%
Skew 2.29 -0.47 1.47 1.32 1.50
Excess kurtosis 4.44 4.23 3.76 1.96 2.11
Best day 0.04% 0.35% 3.53% 6.44% 8.21%
Worst day -0.00% -0.37% -1.55% -2.06% -3.48%
Positive days 17 20 16 16 16
Negative days 11 10 14 14 14
Round trips 11 28 21 11 0
Winning / losing trades 11 / 0 28 / 0 21 / 0 11 / 0 0 / 0
Trades per day 0.37 0.93 0.70 0.37 0.00
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 0.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ 0.00
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ 0.00
Expectancy 0.1327 0.2101 3.5802 17.8085 0.0000
Average win 0.1327 0.2101 3.5802 17.8085 0.0000
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 0.1327 0.2101 3.5802 17.8085 0.0000
Max win streak 11 28 21 11 0
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 3.41% 23.65% 79.64% 91.54% 99.78%
Turnover 0.00 0.01 0.08 0.20 0.00
Realised P&L 1.46 5.88 75.18 195.89 0.00
Unrealised P&L -0.00 -0.00 -26.64 -53.72 214.78
Fees paid 0.60 3.14 9.03 7.00 0.30
Fee drag 0.06% 0.31% 0.90% 0.70% 0.03%
Final equity 1001.46 1005.88 1048.55 1142.17 1214.78

Every number on this page is read from the run record that produced it — the audit pipeline writes the page and the record together, so the two cannot drift apart.

What the guard is, and what a better number under it means. The break-even guard refuses any exit below average entry plus fees. It cannot improve a strategy's judgement — it can only stop it selling at a loss, which means holding the position instead. Across the pack that turns a strategy that churned into one that buys and waits: trade counts collapse and time in market rises towards 100%. In a window where the asset itself rose, that reads as a much better return while being strictly less of a strategy.

So read the return next to round trips, time in market and edge vs buy and hold. The last of those is the one that matters: not one strategy in this matrix beat simply holding the asset, in either run.

Ignore the win rate and the profit factor under the guard. Both count closed trades only, and the guard closes nothing at a loss — in all 101 guarded runs the number of losing closed trades is exactly zero. So the win rate goes to 100% and the profit factor becomes undefined for arithmetic reasons, while the losses sit in the position that is still open. The unrealised row is where they went.