← NR7_Breakout

NR7_Breakout — metrics

Unguarded: PASSGuarded: FAIL · 11 failDirectionalgunbot-quant

BTCUSDT · 2026-08-13 01:50 → 2026-09-12 01:50 UTC (30 days) · 0.03% fee + 2 bps slippage · 1,000 quote, one figure for every cell

The same document for both runs of the same measurement — first as the strategy ships, then with the break-even guard. Everything else about the two runs is identical.

As it ships PASS

Exits: the strategy's own exits, stops included

The metric set the portfolio dashboard reports, computed per cell so a backtested configuration and a running one read on the same axes. Portfolio-level measures (concentration, pairwise correlation, beta against a benchmark) are omitted: one strategy on one pair has no cross-sectional structure to measure, and printing a null would imply the number exists.

1m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 3.22% 8.90% 16.38% 19.38% 22.15%
CAGR 46.96% 182.24% 533.31% 762.65% 1040.33%
Buy and hold 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88%
Edge vs B&H -18.67% -12.98% -5.50% -2.51% 0.26%
Volatility (ann.) 17.90% 25.47% 34.76% 37.35% 39.98%
Sharpe 2.24 4.20 5.48 5.96 6.29
Sortino 2.13 4.10 5.43 5.92 6.26
Calmar 11.75 40.04 87.88 117.88 151.04
Omega 1.01 1.02 1.03 1.03 1.03
Max drawdown 4.00% 4.55% 6.07% 6.47% 6.89%
Ulcer index 0.0185 0.0231 0.0287 0.0293 0.0307
Drawdown episodes 69 90 113 123 131
Longest underwater (days) 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2
Recovery factor 0.80 1.96 2.70 2.99 3.22
VaR 95% -1.007% -1.408% -1.896% -2.027% -2.164%
VaR 99% -1.719% -2.391% -3.199% -3.414% -3.638%
CVaR 95% -1.363% -1.899% -2.548% -2.720% -2.901%
Skew 1.27 1.43 1.42 1.46 1.47
Excess kurtosis 1.29 1.76 1.89 2.03 2.12
Best day 3.51% 5.11% 7.21% 7.81% 8.45%
Worst day -1.72% -2.39% -3.20% -3.41% -3.64%
Positive days 12 14 16 16 17
Negative days 18 16 14 14 13
Round trips 364 148 26 5 1
Winning / losing trades 15 / 349 3 / 145 0 / 26 0 / 5 0 / 1
Trades per day 12.13 4.93 0.87 0.17 0.03
Win rate 4.12% 2.03% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Profit factor 0.07 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00
Payoff ratio 1.53 1.31 0.00 0.00 0.00
Expectancy -0.1095 -0.2565 -1.0872 -3.3883 -3.6603
Average win 0.1869 0.3537 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average loss 0.1223 0.2691 1.0872 3.3883 3.6603
Average trade -0.1095 -0.2565 -1.0872 -3.3883 -3.6603
Max win streak 1 1 0 0 0
Max loss streak 124 76 26 5 1
Time in market 88.79% 95.38% 99.13% 99.86% 99.98%
Turnover 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.00
Realised P&L -39.87 -37.97 -28.27 -16.94 -3.66
Unrealised P&L 72.02 126.98 192.07 210.66 225.06
Fees paid 27.83 24.19 9.95 3.02 0.90
Fee drag 2.78% 2.42% 1.00% 0.30% 0.09%
Final equity 1032.11 1088.95 1163.68 1193.46 1221.15

3m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return -3.50% 9.61% 15.74% 19.79% 21.64%
CAGR -35.14% 205.45% 491.88% 799.62% 984.66%
Buy and hold 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86%
Edge vs B&H -25.36% -12.25% -6.12% -2.07% -0.22%
Volatility (ann.) 4.89% 24.47% 33.84% 36.44% 39.02%
Sharpe -8.82 4.69 5.42 6.21 6.30
Sortino -7.30 4.54 5.42 6.26 6.36
Calmar -8.71 47.10 84.01 128.01 148.05
Omega 0.89 1.04 1.04 1.05 1.05
Max drawdown 4.03% 4.36% 5.85% 6.25% 6.65%
Ulcer index 0.0209 0.0207 0.0280 0.0286 0.0304
Drawdown episodes 9 69 71 82 84
Longest underwater (days) 21.7 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2
Recovery factor -0.87 2.20 2.69 3.17 3.25
VaR 95% -0.326% -1.375% -1.864% -1.994% -2.129%
VaR 99% -0.334% -2.221% -2.993% -3.196% -3.407%
CVaR 95% -0.330% -1.798% -2.429% -2.595% -2.768%
Skew 3.68 1.45 1.44 1.46 1.48
Excess kurtosis 13.83 1.70 1.76 1.89 1.97
Best day 1.66% 5.04% 7.03% 7.58% 8.20%
Worst day -0.33% -2.22% -2.99% -3.20% -3.41%
Positive days 3 11 13 16 15
Negative days 26 18 16 13 14
Round trips 434 84 29 3 1
Winning / losing trades 54 / 380 5 / 79 0 / 29 0 / 3 0 / 1
Trades per day 14.47 2.80 0.97 0.10 0.03
Win rate 12.44% 5.95% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Profit factor 0.54 0.17 0.00 0.00 0.00
Payoff ratio 3.82 2.64 0.00 0.00 0.00
Expectancy -0.0806 -0.2431 -1.0401 -4.5042 -5.7154
Average win 0.7712 0.8184 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average loss 0.2017 0.3103 1.0401 4.5042 5.7154
Average trade -0.0806 -0.2431 -1.0401 -4.5042 -5.7154
Max win streak 4 1 0 0 0
Max loss streak 61 50 29 3 1
Time in market 53.51% 91.43% 97.35% 99.86% 99.96%
Turnover 0.12 0.03 0.03 0.01 0.01
Realised P&L -34.99 -20.42 -30.16 -13.51 -5.72
Unrealised P&L 0.04 116.53 187.50 211.33 222.09
Fees paid 30.45 12.90 10.27 1.67 0.90
Fee drag 3.04% 1.29% 1.03% 0.17% 0.09%
Final equity 965.01 1096.04 1157.21 1197.57 1216.12

5m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 6.07% 10.60% 17.60% 19.35% 20.74%
CAGR 104.85% 240.80% 618.60% 760.14% 890.48%
Buy and hold 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83%
Edge vs B&H -15.76% -11.23% -4.23% -2.48% -1.09%
Volatility (ann.) 17.29% 24.90% 34.48% 37.08% 39.71%
Sharpe 4.23 5.05 5.89 5.99 5.97
Sortino 4.13 5.02 6.06 6.19 6.17
Calmar 33.05 54.12 103.55 119.25 131.21
Omega 1.05 1.05 1.06 1.06 1.06
Max drawdown 3.17% 4.45% 5.97% 6.37% 6.79%
Ulcer index 0.0140 0.0201 0.0267 0.0288 0.0308
Drawdown episodes 48 50 56 58 57
Longest underwater (days) 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2
Recovery factor 1.91 2.38 2.95 3.04 3.06
VaR 95% -0.946% -1.339% -1.816% -1.943% -2.075%
VaR 99% -1.610% -2.265% -3.054% -3.262% -3.477%
CVaR 95% -1.278% -1.802% -2.435% -2.602% -2.776%
Skew 1.30 1.48 1.48 1.48 1.50
Excess kurtosis 1.92 1.91 2.01 2.02 2.08
Best day 3.47% 5.02% 7.00% 7.58% 8.21%
Worst day -1.61% -2.27% -3.05% -3.26% -3.48%
Positive days 13 13 15 16 16
Negative days 17 17 15 14 14
Round trips 56 51 8 3 2
Winning / losing trades 6 / 50 7 / 44 0 / 8 0 / 3 0 / 2
Trades per day 1.87 1.70 0.27 0.10 0.07
Win rate 10.71% 13.73% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Profit factor 0.38 0.31 0.00 0.00 0.00
Payoff ratio 3.17 1.92 0.00 0.00 0.00
Expectancy -0.0864 -0.2250 -1.5120 -5.0803 -9.1073
Average win 0.4964 0.7228 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average loss 0.1564 0.3757 1.5120 5.0803 9.1073
Average trade -0.0864 -0.2250 -1.5120 -5.0803 -9.1073
Max win streak 2 2 0 0 0
Max loss streak 25 17 8 3 2
Time in market 89.82% 91.59% 98.52% 99.50% 99.41%
Turnover 0.01 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.02
Realised P&L -4.84 -11.47 -12.10 -15.24 -18.21
Unrealised P&L 65.55 117.50 188.07 208.72 225.61
Fees paid 4.14 7.89 2.88 1.67 1.48
Fee drag 0.41% 0.79% 0.29% 0.17% 0.15%
Final equity 1060.71 1106.03 1175.97 1193.48 1207.40

Every number on this page is read from the run record that produced it — the audit pipeline writes the page and the record together, so the two cannot drift apart.

With the break-even guard FAIL · 11 fail

Exits: no exit below average entry plus fees, stops included

The metric set the portfolio dashboard reports, computed per cell so a backtested configuration and a running one read on the same axes. Portfolio-level measures (concentration, pairwise correlation, beta against a benchmark) are omitted: one strategy on one pair has no cross-sectional structure to measure, and printing a null would imply the number exists.

1m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 7.52% 12.99% 18.47% 20.12% 21.82%
CAGR 141.58% 342.13% 686.45% 829.95% 1003.72%
Buy and hold 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88%
Edge vs B&H -14.36% -8.89% -3.41% -1.77% -0.06%
Volatility (ann.) 17.89% 25.70% 34.85% 37.36% 40.01%
Sharpe 5.02 5.91 6.09 6.16 6.20
Sortino 4.96 5.87 6.06 6.12 6.17
Calmar 43.20 75.25 113.28 128.37 145.73
Omega 1.02 1.03 1.03 1.03 1.03
Max drawdown 3.28% 4.55% 6.06% 6.47% 6.89%
Ulcer index 0.0144 0.0203 0.0271 0.0289 0.0309
Drawdown episodes 116 128 128 128 128
Longest underwater (days) 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2
Recovery factor 2.29 2.86 3.05 3.11 3.17
VaR 95% -1.005% -1.406% -1.893% -2.025% -2.164%
VaR 99% -1.716% -2.388% -3.194% -3.411% -3.638%
CVaR 95% -1.361% -1.897% -2.544% -2.718% -2.901%
Skew 1.25 1.38 1.44 1.46 1.48
Excess kurtosis 1.52 1.83 2.01 2.07 2.13
Best day 3.50% 5.10% 7.20% 7.80% 8.45%
Worst day -1.72% -2.39% -3.19% -3.41% -3.64%
Positive days 15 16 17 17 17
Negative days 15 14 13 13 13
Round trips 5 0 0 0 0
Winning / losing trades 5 / 0 0 / 0 0 / 0 0 / 0 0 / 0
Trades per day 0.17 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Win rate 100.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Profit factor ∞ 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Payoff ratio ∞ 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Expectancy 0.1897 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average win 0.1897 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 0.1897 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Max win streak 5 0 0 0 0
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 99.87% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Turnover 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Realised P&L 0.95 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Unrealised P&L 74.24 129.94 184.70 201.11 218.13
Fees paid 1.03 0.18 0.25 0.28 0.30
Fee drag 0.10% 0.02% 0.03% 0.03% 0.03%
Final equity 1075.15 1129.87 1184.58 1200.86 1217.88

3m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 6.61% 10.48% 18.36% 20.03% 21.72%
CAGR 117.89% 236.16% 677.55% 822.48% 993.37%
Buy and hold 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86%
Edge vs B&H -15.25% -11.38% -3.50% -1.83% -0.14%
Volatility (ann.) 17.01% 24.05% 34.07% 36.52% 39.10%
Sharpe 4.66 5.16 6.19 6.27 6.31
Sortino 4.63 5.16 6.23 6.31 6.36
Calmar 37.97 54.95 115.84 131.77 149.36
Omega 1.04 1.04 1.05 1.05 1.05
Max drawdown 3.10% 4.30% 5.85% 6.24% 6.65%
Ulcer index 0.0139 0.0194 0.0266 0.0284 0.0303
Drawdown episodes 72 74 84 84 84
Longest underwater (days) 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2
Recovery factor 2.13 2.44 3.14 3.21 3.27
VaR 95% -0.970% -1.354% -1.862% -1.993% -2.129%
VaR 99% -1.576% -2.188% -2.990% -3.194% -3.407%
CVaR 95% -1.273% -1.771% -2.426% -2.593% -2.768%
Skew 1.27 1.29 1.45 1.46 1.48
Excess kurtosis 1.84 1.63 1.87 1.91 1.97
Best day 3.48% 4.96% 7.02% 7.57% 8.20%
Worst day -1.58% -2.19% -2.99% -3.19% -3.41%
Positive days 15 14 15 16 16
Negative days 14 15 14 13 13
Round trips 3 3 0 0 0
Winning / losing trades 3 / 0 3 / 0 0 / 0 0 / 0 0 / 0
Trades per day 0.10 0.10 0.00 0.00 0.00
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ 0.00 0.00 0.00
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ 0.00 0.00 0.00
Expectancy 0.3588 0.9884 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average win 0.3588 0.9884 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 0.3588 0.9884 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Max win streak 3 3 0 0 0
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 99.90% 99.88% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Turnover 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Realised P&L 1.08 2.97 0.00 0.00 0.00
Unrealised P&L 65.02 101.81 183.58 200.29 217.17
Fees paid 0.58 1.17 0.25 0.28 0.30
Fee drag 0.06% 0.12% 0.03% 0.03% 0.03%
Final equity 1066.06 1104.70 1183.45 1200.04 1216.92

5m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 8.08% 12.72% 18.29% 19.96% 21.64%
CAGR 157.35% 329.05% 671.92% 815.42% 984.50%
Buy and hold 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83%
Edge vs B&H -13.75% -9.11% -3.54% -1.87% -0.19%
Volatility (ann.) 17.86% 25.45% 34.67% 37.16% 39.79%
Sharpe 5.38 5.85 6.07 6.14 6.19
Sortino 5.52 6.03 6.28 6.36 6.41
Calmar 48.87 73.65 112.56 128.01 145.07
Omega 1.06 1.06 1.06 1.06 1.06
Max drawdown 3.22% 4.47% 5.97% 6.37% 6.79%
Ulcer index 0.0142 0.0198 0.0266 0.0285 0.0303
Drawdown episodes 62 62 61 61 61
Longest underwater (days) 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2
Recovery factor 2.51 2.85 3.06 3.13 3.19
VaR 95% -0.961% -1.345% -1.815% -1.942% -2.075%
VaR 99% -1.634% -2.275% -3.051% -3.259% -3.477%
CVaR 95% -1.297% -1.810% -2.433% -2.601% -2.776%
Skew 1.31 1.42 1.47 1.48 1.50
Excess kurtosis 1.58 1.84 2.00 2.05 2.11
Best day 3.53% 5.04% 7.00% 7.57% 8.21%
Worst day -1.63% -2.27% -3.05% -3.26% -3.48%
Positive days 15 16 16 16 16
Negative days 15 14 14 14 14
Round trips 1 0 0 0 0
Winning / losing trades 1 / 0 0 / 0 0 / 0 0 / 0 0 / 0
Trades per day 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Win rate 100.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Profit factor ∞ 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Payoff ratio ∞ 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Expectancy 2.3191 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average win 2.3191 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 2.3191 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Max win streak 1 0 0 0 0
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 99.78% 99.97% 99.97% 99.97% 99.97%
Turnover 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Realised P&L 2.32 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Unrealised P&L 78.47 127.16 182.91 199.60 216.43
Fees paid 0.35 0.18 0.25 0.28 0.30
Fee drag 0.04% 0.02% 0.03% 0.03% 0.03%
Final equity 1080.79 1127.16 1182.91 1199.60 1216.43

Every number on this page is read from the run record that produced it — the audit pipeline writes the page and the record together, so the two cannot drift apart.

What the guard is, and what a better number under it means. The break-even guard refuses any exit below average entry plus fees. It cannot improve a strategy's judgement — it can only stop it selling at a loss, which means holding the position instead. Across the pack that turns a strategy that churned into one that buys and waits: trade counts collapse and time in market rises towards 100%. In a window where the asset itself rose, that reads as a much better return while being strictly less of a strategy.

So read the return next to round trips, time in market and edge vs buy and hold. The last of those is the one that matters: not one strategy in this matrix beat simply holding the asset, in either run.

Ignore the win rate and the profit factor under the guard. Both count closed trades only, and the guard closes nothing at a loss — in all 101 guarded runs the number of losing closed trades is exactly zero. So the win rate goes to 100% and the profit factor becomes undefined for arithmetic reasons, while the losses sit in the position that is still open. The unrealised row is where they went.