← OBV_Momentum_MM

OBV_Momentum_MM — metrics

Unguarded: WARN · 1 warnGuarded: WARN · 1 warnMM-DCAgunbot-quant

BTCUSDT · 2026-08-13 01:50 → 2026-09-12 01:50 UTC (30 days) · 0.03% fee + 2 bps slippage · 94 quote, one figure for every cell

The same document for both runs of the same measurement — first as the strategy ships, then with the break-even guard. Everything else about the two runs is identical.

As it ships WARN · 1 warn

Exits: the strategy's own exits, stops included

The metric set the portfolio dashboard reports, computed per cell so a backtested configuration and a running one read on the same axes. Portfolio-level measures (concentration, pairwise correlation, beta against a benchmark) are omitted: one strategy on one pair has no cross-sectional structure to measure, and printing a null would imply the number exists.

1m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return -45.88% -63.95% -73.43% -62.26% -46.86%
CAGR -99.94% -100.00% -100.00% -100.00% -99.95%
Buy and hold 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88%
Edge vs B&H -67.76% -85.83% -95.31% -84.14% -68.74%
Volatility (ann.) 6.86% 11.81% 16.22% 15.94% 13.64%
Sharpe -108.86 -105.04 -99.33 -74.28 -56.35
Sortino -88.82 -86.28 -81.96 -61.72 -47.08
Calmar -2.18 -1.56 -1.36 -1.61 -2.13
Omega 0.42 0.43 0.45 0.48 0.50
Max drawdown 45.89% 63.97% 73.43% 62.26% 46.87%
Ulcer index 0.2597 0.3610 0.4740 0.4863 0.3995
Drawdown episodes 2 2 2 2 2
Longest underwater (days) 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0
Recovery factor -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00
VaR 95% -3.040% -6.237% -7.151% -7.386% -6.923%
VaR 99% -3.503% -6.540% -7.625% -8.294% -8.301%
CVaR 95% -3.272% -6.389% -7.388% -7.840% -7.612%
Skew -0.28 -0.60 0.44 -0.05 -0.72
Excess kurtosis -0.80 -0.41 -0.43 -1.37 -0.87
Best day -1.05% -1.46% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Worst day -3.50% -6.54% -7.62% -8.29% -8.30%
Positive days 0 0 1 4 8
Negative days 30 30 29 26 22
Round trips 1,738 1,730 1,602 1,039 677
Winning / losing trades 207 / 1,531 195 / 1,535 178 / 1,424 111 / 928 78 / 599
Trades per day 57.93 57.67 53.40 34.63 22.57
Win rate 11.91% 11.27% 11.11% 10.68% 11.52%
Profit factor 0.13 0.13 0.15 0.16 0.19
Payoff ratio 0.96 1.03 1.17 1.35 1.45
Expectancy -0.0248 -0.0347 -0.0431 -0.0563 -0.0651
Average win 0.0309 0.0466 0.0662 0.1017 0.1309
Average loss 0.0323 0.0451 0.0567 0.0752 0.0906
Average trade -0.0248 -0.0347 -0.0431 -0.0563 -0.0651
Max win streak 3 3 3 3 3
Max loss streak 80 80 80 40 30
Time in market 21.96% 22.43% 21.42% 14.48% 10.11%
Turnover 0.59 0.83 0.98 0.86 0.69
Realised P&L -43.12 -60.10 -69.02 -58.52 -44.05
Unrealised P&L -0.00 -0.01 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00
Fees paid 26.08 36.34 42.16 36.31 28.55
Fee drag 27.75% 38.66% 44.85% 38.62% 30.37%
Final equity 50.88 33.89 24.98 35.48 49.95

3m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return -15.18% -21.30% -29.98% -40.20% -41.07%
CAGR -86.51% -94.58% -98.69% -99.81% -99.84%
Buy and hold 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86%
Edge vs B&H -37.04% -43.16% -51.84% -62.06% -62.93%
Volatility (ann.) 4.06% 6.02% 9.38% 13.80% 15.44%
Sharpe -49.36 -48.37 -46.16 -45.27 -41.58
Sortino -42.94 -42.25 -40.95 -40.22 -37.80
Calmar -5.69 -4.44 -3.29 -2.48 -2.43
Omega 0.49 0.50 0.52 0.53 0.57
Max drawdown 15.20% 21.32% 30.01% 40.23% 41.10%
Ulcer index 0.0931 0.1304 0.1834 0.2510 0.2649
Drawdown episodes 1 1 1 1 1
Longest underwater (days) 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0
Recovery factor -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00
VaR 95% -0.897% -1.319% -2.005% -2.709% -3.074%
VaR 99% -0.908% -1.354% -2.012% -3.024% -3.255%
CVaR 95% -0.902% -1.336% -2.009% -2.866% -3.164%
Skew -0.16 -0.13 -0.04 -0.03 0.19
Excess kurtosis -1.11 -0.95 -1.03 -1.08 -0.76
Best day -0.22% -0.32% -0.43% -0.67% -0.09%
Worst day -0.91% -1.35% -2.01% -3.02% -3.25%
Positive days 0 0 0 0 0
Negative days 29 29 29 29 29
Round trips 583 580 573 566 562
Winning / losing trades 113 / 470 106 / 474 98 / 475 92 / 474 87 / 475
Trades per day 19.43 19.33 19.10 18.87 18.73
Win rate 19.38% 18.28% 17.10% 16.25% 15.48%
Profit factor 0.22 0.22 0.23 0.23 0.26
Payoff ratio 0.92 0.99 1.11 1.18 1.45
Expectancy -0.0245 -0.0345 -0.0492 -0.0668 -0.0687
Average win 0.0359 0.0539 0.0852 0.1216 0.1600
Average loss 0.0390 0.0543 0.0769 0.1034 0.1106
Average trade -0.0245 -0.0345 -0.0492 -0.0668 -0.0687
Max win streak 3 3 3 3 2
Max loss streak 24 28 28 28 28
Time in market 17.51% 18.03% 18.81% 19.42% 20.43%
Turnover 0.24 0.33 0.48 0.64 0.71
Realised P&L -14.28 -20.03 -28.19 -37.80 -38.62
Unrealised P&L 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04
Fees paid 8.77 12.22 17.24 22.87 24.49
Fee drag 9.33% 13.00% 18.35% 24.34% 26.06%
Final equity 79.72 73.96 65.80 56.19 55.37

5m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return -10.64% -14.64% -19.98% -28.24% -31.22%
CAGR -74.56% -85.43% -93.36% -98.24% -98.95%
Buy and hold 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83%
Edge vs B&H -32.47% -36.47% -41.81% -50.07% -53.05%
Volatility (ann.) 4.34% 6.35% 9.70% 14.64% 16.72%
Sharpe -31.52 -30.32 -27.91 -27.50 -27.14
Sortino -27.10 -26.33 -25.03 -24.65 -24.67
Calmar -7.01 -5.83 -4.67 -3.48 -3.17
Omega 0.49 0.52 0.55 0.56 0.58
Max drawdown 10.64% 14.65% 19.98% 28.24% 31.22%
Ulcer index 0.0613 0.0844 0.1134 0.1611 0.1853
Drawdown episodes 1 1 1 1 1
Longest underwater (days) 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0
Recovery factor -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00
VaR 95% -0.826% -1.112% -1.614% -2.316% -2.724%
VaR 99% -1.093% -1.574% -2.235% -3.427% -4.057%
CVaR 95% -0.960% -1.343% -1.924% -2.871% -3.391%
Skew -0.32 -0.22 0.00 -0.08 -0.16
Excess kurtosis -0.19 -0.10 -0.36 -0.14 -0.16
Best day 0.13% 0.21% 0.50% 0.54% 0.78%
Worst day -1.09% -1.57% -2.23% -3.43% -4.06%
Positive days 3 4 4 4 5
Negative days 27 26 26 26 25
Round trips 380 377 373 366 360
Winning / losing trades 84 / 296 80 / 297 77 / 296 68 / 298 62 / 298
Trades per day 12.67 12.57 12.43 12.20 12.00
Win rate 22.11% 21.22% 20.64% 18.58% 17.22%
Profit factor 0.26 0.28 0.31 0.30 0.30
Payoff ratio 0.92 1.03 1.18 1.33 1.46
Expectancy -0.0264 -0.0366 -0.0504 -0.0726 -0.0816
Average win 0.0422 0.0657 0.1079 0.1696 0.2068
Average loss 0.0458 0.0641 0.0916 0.1279 0.1416
Average trade -0.0264 -0.0366 -0.0504 -0.0726 -0.0816
Max win streak 6 5 5 3 3
Max loss streak 19 19 19 19 19
Time in market 14.89% 15.50% 16.26% 17.19% 18.34%
Turnover 0.18 0.26 0.38 0.53 0.59
Realised P&L -10.01 -13.78 -18.80 -26.57 -29.38
Unrealised P&L 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05
Fees paid 5.76 7.99 11.28 15.54 17.03
Fee drag 6.12% 8.51% 12.00% 16.53% 18.13%
Final equity 83.99 80.22 75.20 67.43 64.62

Every number on this page is read from the run record that produced it — the audit pipeline writes the page and the record together, so the two cannot drift apart.

With the break-even guard WARN · 1 warn

Exits: no exit below average entry plus fees, stops included

The metric set the portfolio dashboard reports, computed per cell so a backtested configuration and a running one read on the same axes. Portfolio-level measures (concentration, pairwise correlation, beta against a benchmark) are omitted: one strategy on one pair has no cross-sectional structure to measure, and printing a null would imply the number exists.

1m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 0.31% 0.59% 1.24% 3.05% 4.24%
CAGR 3.79% 7.38% 16.15% 44.18% 65.68%
Buy and hold 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88%
Edge vs B&H -21.58% -21.29% -20.64% -18.83% -17.64%
Volatility (ann.) 11.21% 15.66% 28.13% 31.67% 27.23%
Sharpe 0.39 0.53 0.67 1.31 1.99
Sortino 0.37 0.51 0.65 1.27 1.92
Calmar 1.66 2.33 2.85 7.24 13.41
Omega 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.01 1.01
Max drawdown 2.28% 3.16% 5.66% 6.10% 4.90%
Ulcer index 0.0087 0.0120 0.0209 0.0235 0.0198
Drawdown episodes 200 239 250 229 171
Longest underwater (days) 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2
Recovery factor 0.13 0.19 0.22 0.50 0.86
VaR 95% -0.750% -1.042% -1.935% -2.038% -1.630%
VaR 99% -1.066% -1.478% -2.591% -2.860% -2.489%
CVaR 95% -0.908% -1.260% -2.263% -2.449% -2.059%
Skew 0.13 0.10 0.12 0.18 0.37
Excess kurtosis 0.39 0.17 0.36 -0.17 -0.00
Best day 1.16% 1.55% 2.91% 3.11% 2.78%
Worst day -1.07% -1.48% -2.59% -2.86% -2.49%
Positive days 15 15 17 16 15
Negative days 15 15 13 14 15
Round trips 75 69 77 67 55
Winning / losing trades 75 / 0 69 / 0 77 / 0 67 / 0 55 / 0
Trades per day 2.50 2.30 2.57 2.23 1.83
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 0.0357 0.0572 0.0969 0.1533 0.1919
Average win 0.0357 0.0572 0.0969 0.1533 0.1919
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 0.0357 0.0572 0.0969 0.1533 0.1919
Max win streak 75 69 77 67 55
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 94.19% 94.40% 93.76% 94.75% 95.77%
Turnover 0.02 0.03 0.06 0.08 0.09
Realised P&L 2.68 3.94 7.46 10.27 10.55
Unrealised P&L -2.31 -3.23 -5.95 -6.55 -5.38
Fees paid 1.34 1.77 3.06 3.63 3.33
Fee drag 1.10% 1.45% 2.51% 2.97% 2.73%
Final equity 122.37 122.72 123.51 125.72 127.17

3m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 0.79% 1.43% 3.18% 3.82% 3.04%
CAGR 10.04% 18.84% 46.33% 57.77% 44.02%
Buy and hold 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86%
Edge vs B&H -21.07% -20.43% -18.68% -18.04% -18.82%
Volatility (ann.) 9.07% 12.67% 24.74% 28.40% 26.37%
Sharpe 1.10 1.43 1.66 1.75 1.52
Sortino 1.08 1.41 1.66 1.74 1.48
Calmar 5.76 7.82 11.45 11.91 9.52
Omega 1.01 1.01 1.01 1.01 1.01
Max drawdown 1.74% 2.41% 4.05% 4.85% 4.62%
Ulcer index 0.0054 0.0075 0.0142 0.0176 0.0182
Drawdown episodes 221 221 201 186 122
Longest underwater (days) 7.6 7.6 6.5 7.7 8.0
Recovery factor 0.45 0.59 0.79 0.79 0.66
VaR 95% -0.541% -0.750% -1.903% -2.021% -1.963%
VaR 99% -0.613% -0.851% -2.204% -2.450% -2.083%
CVaR 95% -0.577% -0.800% -2.054% -2.235% -2.023%
Skew 0.31 0.35 0.06 0.21 0.46
Excess kurtosis -0.13 -0.04 0.60 0.14 -0.20
Best day 0.88% 1.20% 2.81% 3.32% 3.37%
Worst day -0.61% -0.85% -2.20% -2.45% -2.08%
Positive days 16 18 18 18 15
Negative days 13 11 11 11 14
Round trips 65 58 63 50 33
Winning / losing trades 65 / 0 58 / 0 63 / 0 50 / 0 33 / 0
Trades per day 2.17 1.93 2.10 1.67 1.10
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 0.0409 0.0710 0.1231 0.1896 0.2583
Average win 0.0409 0.0710 0.1231 0.1896 0.2583
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 0.0409 0.0710 0.1231 0.1896 0.2583
Max win streak 65 58 63 50 33
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 84.31% 85.62% 84.93% 86.72% 91.85%
Turnover 0.02 0.03 0.06 0.08 0.07
Realised P&L 2.66 4.12 7.76 9.48 8.52
Unrealised P&L -1.70 -2.38 -3.88 -4.82 -4.81
Fees paid 1.19 1.49 2.61 2.74 2.01
Fee drag 0.98% 1.22% 2.14% 2.25% 1.65%
Final equity 122.95 123.73 125.85 126.62 125.66

5m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 0.53% 0.10% 1.10% 2.50% 4.66%
CAGR 6.70% 1.20% 14.23% 35.07% 73.97%
Buy and hold 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83%
Edge vs B&H -21.30% -21.73% -20.73% -19.33% -17.17%
Volatility (ann.) 9.26% 14.70% 25.94% 29.15% 24.49%
Sharpe 0.75 0.15 0.64 1.18 2.38
Sortino 0.76 0.15 0.64 1.17 2.40
Calmar 3.82 0.41 2.68 6.11 15.37
Omega 1.01 1.00 1.01 1.01 1.03
Max drawdown 1.75% 2.92% 5.32% 5.74% 4.81%
Ulcer index 0.0065 0.0111 0.0197 0.0219 0.0193
Drawdown episodes 123 119 150 154 112
Longest underwater (days) 8.2 8.2 7.6 8.2 8.2
Recovery factor 0.30 0.03 0.21 0.44 0.97
VaR 95% -0.722% -1.006% -1.864% -1.975% -1.566%
VaR 99% -1.133% -1.573% -2.751% -3.053% -2.642%
CVaR 95% -0.928% -1.290% -2.308% -2.514% -2.104%
Skew 0.40 0.41 0.24 0.29 0.43
Excess kurtosis 3.29 2.15 1.80 1.55 1.19
Best day 1.42% 2.04% 3.48% 3.99% 3.61%
Worst day -1.13% -1.57% -2.75% -3.05% -2.64%
Positive days 18 17 19 19 18
Negative days 12 13 11 11 12
Round trips 43 42 40 38 37
Winning / losing trades 43 / 0 42 / 0 40 / 0 38 / 0 37 / 0
Trades per day 1.43 1.40 1.33 1.27 1.23
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 0.0456 0.0755 0.1728 0.2426 0.2938
Average win 0.0456 0.0755 0.1728 0.2426 0.2938
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 0.0456 0.0755 0.1728 0.2426 0.2938
Max win streak 43 42 40 38 37
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 83.53% 83.78% 83.99% 84.17% 84.77%
Turnover 0.02 0.03 0.06 0.08 0.09
Realised P&L 1.96 3.17 6.91 9.22 10.87
Unrealised P&L -1.31 -3.05 -5.57 -6.17 -5.19
Fees paid 0.80 1.12 1.64 2.10 2.25
Fee drag 0.66% 0.92% 1.34% 1.72% 1.85%
Final equity 122.64 122.10 123.32 125.02 127.63

Every number on this page is read from the run record that produced it — the audit pipeline writes the page and the record together, so the two cannot drift apart.

What the guard is, and what a better number under it means. The break-even guard refuses any exit below average entry plus fees. It cannot improve a strategy's judgement — it can only stop it selling at a loss, which means holding the position instead. Across the pack that turns a strategy that churned into one that buys and waits: trade counts collapse and time in market rises towards 100%. In a window where the asset itself rose, that reads as a much better return while being strictly less of a strategy.

So read the return next to round trips, time in market and edge vs buy and hold. The last of those is the one that matters: not one strategy in this matrix beat simply holding the asset, in either run.

Ignore the win rate and the profit factor under the guard. Both count closed trades only, and the guard closes nothing at a loss — in all 101 guarded runs the number of losing closed trades is exactly zero. So the win rate goes to 100% and the profit factor becomes undefined for arithmetic reasons, while the losses sit in the position that is still open. The unrealised row is where they went.